 Hello and welcome to News Clicks Show, mapping fault lines where we look at some of the major geopolitical conflicts around the world. Today we are going to be talking about the conflict around Nagorno-Karabakh. Now this is a region in the Trans-Caucasian region. This is a region that borders Armenia and Azerbaijan and it has been the site of conflict for many decades now. The region was initially part of Azerbaijan. After the fall of the Soviet Union, there was a war between Armenia and Azerbaijan in which the Armenians took over large parts of the territory and the autonomous republic of Artsakh and Nagorno-Karabakh was set up. In recent days over the past week, Azerbaijani forces have advanced into these areas. There has been conflict with the Armenian forces and the forces of Nagorno-Karabakh reports say hundreds of people have died. And this has a larger impact on the entire region as a whole because countries like Turkey, Russia, Iran, the United States, European Union, everyone is involved. To talk more about this, we have with us Prabir Purkayas. Prabir, thank you so much for joining us. So could you first start with the immediate conflict of the past week? So what does it look like is happening on the ground with the Azerbaijani forces advancing and how do you see this conflict right now? Well, it's difficult to really predict how this conflict will turn out either in the short run or in the long run because the short run Azerbaijani forces seem to have made some headway. But nevertheless Armenians in the last battle they had when this whole thing started and Nagorno-Karabakh region was created. At that time they suffered, Azerbaijan really suffered heavy losses. So Armenians proved to be more or better at fighting than the Azerbaijan is at that time. This time Azerbaijan of course has had 20 years. It also has a lot of oil wealth that it has built up and therefore it seems to have done better. But we cannot really take this out from the larger geopolitical context. But looking at only Armenian-Azerbaijan as a first issue, it's also important to realize that apart from Nagorno-Karabakh which had an Armenian majority, Armenia also took over Azerbaijan territory with Azeri population, bulk of the population being Azeri who were ethnically cleansed from the area and Armenian ethnicity as people of Armenian ethnicity as they would think they have been settled in these places. So the battle is no longer about Nagorno-Karabakh. It's also about almost an equal amount of territory if not more which the Armenians have occupied and who they are not even at the moment willing to negotiate for a peace settlement. In fact the argument was that this will be handed over if they recognize or write over Nagorno-Karabakh and this would be then a part of the peace settlement. At the moment Armenia is saying that there's no question of any peace settlement all of this belongs to us. So that is the immediate perhaps trigger why the Armenians finally are finding themselves in this position. Whereas Azerbaijan thinks the only way because no negotiations is forthcoming or can resolve this issue that the only way to look at it is the military intervention. Now this is one part of it the other part of it and I think this is the peace that most of the people are missing that as you said this is not an issue only between Armenia and Azerbaijan. There are other forces that play in this region and of course the United States with Israel is an ever-present player because they look at all of this particularly as this region now about strategically. Russia on one side which has Georgia which is aligned with the United States then you have also Iran and you have Turkey. So this Azerbaijan Armenia if you put it together really about three strategic opponents of the United States who they think they should destabilize in some way or the other so or keep the pot boiling. So this is also an attempt to see if Turkey can be made to fight with Russia whether Iran can be made to fight with Russia. So can they fracture these relations which are building in some sense against the American intervention. But I think the bigger issue is that there is now a geostrategic change in which the ability of the United States to dominate over all the other regions is not possible. But also what's happening is the regional powers are playing a role and it is not that they're relying with either United States or Russia they have their own acts to grind in this war in these battles of these differences and what you are seeing is perhaps using Armenia used with Israel and the United States behind it and attempt to sort of keep the pot boiling has led to Turkey also returning this fire maybe Russia is also somebody who otherwise would have supported Armenia more but given the fact that 2018 elections Armenians seem to have moved over much more to the American camp the Russians may not be so inclined to support it. So I think this instability of international relations at the moment where Americans no longer control the ability to what will happen in each region that they can determine I think that breakdown is also the reason that you are seeing these kind of regional flare ups. Right exactly and that's interesting because we've also seen a similar situation in Syria where Russia and Turkey were on opposite sides of the spectrum and now what we're seeing in this region is also that Turkey is far more closer to the Azeris Russia does have a base in Armenia but like you pointed out after the elections we don't know what exactly is likely to happen but also in the context there's also the possibility of Turkey Iran Russia all working together which is also kind of started building up in recent times. So how do you see the possibility of these countries actually working out a regional solution to this kind of a problem? I think Armenia has to realize that the United States is no longer in a position to dictate to others what the course of the future is going to be. So they have to make or they have to make do with regional solution and if they want a solution which gives them Nagorno-Karabakh as a peace offering then they have to make concessions as well and that this is something that they cannot dictate to Azerbaijan anymore earlier they would have thought with United States backing they can do what they want in the region that is no longer looking possible. So it is not that the US has lost influence in the area as a whole it hasn't it still has the ability to at least destabilize the region but its ability to control the region is not there I think that's where Armenia which moved over much more to the United States I think Israel has a very strong presence in Armenia right now and as we know Caucasus has been the root of destabilizing Russia in this case also Iran and Turkey is no longer a friend as it was of the United States as a part of NATO that fracturing has also taken place. So Turkey has independent ambitions Iran is of course interested at the moment to protect itself from what it could see as an extension of American influence if the Armenians are able to defeat the Azerbaijanis then of course Iran will feel more threatened. So given all of this I think the issue really is for Armenians to realize that they have to reopen the issue of Nagorno-Karabakh and try and reach a settlement to the Azerbaijan otherwise a military solution to them for them may not be to their advantage as it was in the 90s when they could actually defeat really Azerbaijan threats and take over parts of Azerbaijan. Azerbaijan at the point of time lost 20 percent of its territory to Armenia that includes Nagorno-Karabakh but also the equivalent amount of territory which was clearly not Armenian majority was Azeri overwhelmingly Azeri majority. Absolutely and finally just to sort of build on the regional point also like you said the Turkey is no longer so much a friend to the US and while Russia and Iran on one side and Turkey on the other have been sort of antagonistic we're also probably seeing a bit of a realignment on those lines so is that something that might continue in the coming months especially with what the US Israel and the Gulf countries are doing so is that a possibility as well. You know we discussed earlier that the realignment that's taken place on West Asia includes the fact that the Islamic bloc is not only split in in terms of Shias and Sunnis as the United States wanted which would align most of the countries against Iran but also on the lines of monarchies who are with Israel with the United States at Saudi Arabia that also includes the Gulf the Emirates and so on but also the fact that the Sunni world is also split Turkey is the most prominent Muslim Brotherhood power because that's where Muslim Brotherhood is in power the one really represents that but the Sunnis so the Sunni world is now split on monarchies one side and the other side Turkey leading it with some monarchies also on its sides because they feel threatened by Saudi Arabia and others so given this combination you are seeing new alignments emerge and you saw also Egypt we don't know which side it is on but it's certainly against Turkey so given all of this that these old alignments no longer hold and this is the reputation of what we see here and here the alignments are going to be fluid that if Turkey makes common cause with Iran it's a Shia Sunni alignment that takes place here so the old alignment of isolating the Shia Iran no longer would work so this are some of the things that were at play and if you take Aziris their Shias as well so it's again it's a if they're being backed by Turkey it's also there the Sunni Shia alliance that is emerging so I think those alignments that were what United States was trying to bring about isolate Iran on the basis of Sunnis against Shias aligned the Sunni monarchies with Israel and United States all those things are slowly also breaking down because Qatar is a monarchy it's with Turkey Kuwait don't know appears to be more with Turkey than with Saudi Arabia they see them as threats you have Syria which is clearly on the side of Iran so you have all kinds of alignments now coming up and I think you are going to see more of these fractures in the region and I think this is a very interesting case as well where the old alignments are not working new alignments are about to emerge and this is a battle for what kind of new alignments will emerge and I think the situation is much more fluid than the United States or the international media thinks in fact the international media really reports with the Americans think they are saying it is Turkey versus Russia it's Iran versus X but it seems to be Russia Iran and Turkey have an interest in stabilizing this battle between Armenia and Azerbaijan but they don't also want to have a situation where Armenia actually changes the status quo both ethnically and militarily