 Hello and welcome to the Monday market update with me David Madden. Today's date is Monday the 11th of February 2019 and the time has just gone 1135 GMT It's been a fairly positive set a start to the European equity market session this week There's a lot of optimism around US China trade talks this week US trade delegates will fly to Beijing to try and Read some sort of an agreement with their Chinese counterparts. There's no guarantee So this is going to actually achieve anything But just the very fact that a trade talks where she's continuing Is actually seen as a positive sign by traders and dealers Keep in mind there was a fairly big sell-off in in global stock markets at the back end of last week of Friday when the President Trump Suggested that the US and China weren't going to reach a trade deal by the March deadline But then again, this is this we've seen this movie before Whereby there's a lot of chewing and throwing going back and forth and comments for various different individuals in relation to the US China trade talks But that's for the time being a few markets just for the very fact that the US Trade delegates heading over to Beijing seem to be taking that as a positive sign The worry about that is though is that it's almost as if some sort of positive news is already factored into to equity markets and should should Nothing be achieved. We could see the markets roll over But if obviously all depends on which way trade talks go if something is achieved That could be a signal that we are she looking at heading to heading in the right direction and bear in mind Global equity markets by and large have been bouncing back since late December So that any sign that any sign that US trade talks are she going in the right direction Could actually could be the next kind of leg up for the wider Upward move you've seen since late December Also in the news today, we had some trade We have some number of economic indicators of the out of the UK and the fourth quarter of 2018 2k economy in the fourth quarter grew by 0.2 percent meeting expect expectations But but keep in mind we also has disappointing Industrial production and manufacturing production figures as well and the construction figures were disappointed too So we've had slower growth in the UK and we fashioned the negative growth from the number of the smaller sectors They make up the UK economy So it we've seen a bit of downward pressure on the pound on the back of that That also being said it's not entirely surprising with the UK economy in schooling the UK economy is very much hiding The Eurozone economy, which is certainly cooling it is in recession and not to mention the fact that there's still major uncertainty in relation to Brexit What I do now is I start off with taking a look at some of the major markets taking a look at the footsie 100 So like I was saying that the major European markets have been bouncing back since late December But then I've taken a bit of a breather in comparison With the positive move that we saw last week and the footsie 100, but we're still in this kind of Upward move figure the which you get the corrective move from the previous sell-off between October and December If you can hold above this region here this price action The 100-day moving average which comes into play just north of seven thousand seven thousand and eleven I believe seven thousand also if you can hold above that metric We could see the market push on higher and if you deal with the push on higher We could be looking directly in this general area in around seven thousand two hundred and twenty If the market manages to turn over turn over on itself and break below seven thousand We could be like getting back down towards this this line here Which is the fifth-day moving average which comes to play at sixty eight seventy two and a break below that could take us back down to the late January lows of sixty seven thirty two It's a reasonably similar situation on the tax over in Germany We can see that we've seen a fairly decent bounce back since late December But for the time being the 100-day moving average It's the airline here, which comes into play eleven thousand three hundred and thirty is actually a fairly decent resistance And while we remain south of that we could see continued downward pressure on the tax We're also just below the eleven thousand mark on the tax a big psychological number and has proven recently to be a Level of decent support the fifth-day moving average has been coincided has been coinciding with it recently So if we can stable if you stay below eleven thousand, we could see further losses on the tax So be dripped at the downside on the tax We could be like me heading back down towards the early January lows of ten thousand seven hundred eighty five But if you could should get above eleven thousand or to push on higher from there And then the next step of the key keeper our four will be like I said They wanted to move the average which comes into play Be at beyond eleven thousand and three hundred and thirty and if you go beyond that if you're looking at targeting this trend line here If you draw a high between the highs of June July and also of September last year We get this trend line along here We should come into play just south of eleven thousand five hundred maybe eleven thousand four hundred fifty somewhere in around there Take a look now what's going on over in America on the US markets that we share in a better shape Starting off with the S&P 500 if you draw a trend line between the lows of February 2016 with the lows of November 2016 we get this trend line along here And as we can see back in October and November it was well respected with a sharp Salah well below in In December, but we but since then we've been bouncing back and we've managed to actually trade Well above that trend line and we're still holding above that trend line So while we hold above that trend line That we could see for the gains being made on the S&P 500 now the first year to keep on our four to the upside Will be this red line here a 200 a moving average which comes in at 20 comes into play at 2745 And if you go beyond that you could be looking at heading up towards two thousand eight hundred Big psychological number and if you go beyond that this area here is going to be a big key one potentially And around the two thousand eight hundred and fifteen or seventeen mark on a few occasions That area active at resistance and the back end of last year So I could act as a resistance in the medium to near term If though the market manages to turn over itself yet again and fall back below this trend line We could be looking at heading back down towards the two thousand six hundred area or down towards the 250 day moving average 2613 so keep an eye for that area pretty kind of moves to the downside. I take a look now what's going on at the Dow Similarish price action we see on the Dow Jones So starting off with the draw trend line between the lows of February 2018 and also in April and also May We get this trend line along here now I know this absolutely goes as clear-cut as the as a one of the S&P 500 But we could see here that it was reasonably respected in October and November And then once we had a firm break below it in December mark sold out heavily But like the S&P 500 the market pushed higher Managed to run into resistance at that brick of trend line, but then she got back over the trend line I could see here. I'm gonna watch you firming holding above that So if you can hold above the trend line, and we can hold above the two hundred a moving average Which comes into play in just north of 25,000 25,040 there they're about if you can hold above that we could be looking at retesting at the 26,000 or up the high as 26,278 Dow theory tells us that the stock market averages must confirm each other And as you can see here from this chart and what we saw on the S&P 500 chart Both US stock markets are above the respective trend line So if both markets remain a remain above their trend line It makes it more likely you can be more confident that the both markets are going to continue to push on higher If one's above while the others below That that that shows indecision Whereas if both markets fall back below their respective trend lines and those not those trend lines I begin to act as resistance again We can then become more confident that the that both markets will remain below their respective trend lines So if we do see a drop back below The trend line on the Dow Jones We could see support going to play at this blue line here in around 24,000 220 and 26 And if you drop below that you might bring in the psychology port and 24,000 into play And I'll take a look at what's going on over gold So gold said a decent bounce back since mid-august mid-august But really since about mid-November has been a classic example of an upper trend My series of higher highs and higher lows and granted hasn't really moved the whole lot I saw in the last week has moved a bit to the downside and it's been a bit lackluster, but nonetheless The upward trend over the last few months is still very much in play And if you look to press on higher from here, and we take out 1326 The reason I hear we keep it looking heading back towards 1335 and then beyond that up to 1350 If we do see the market managed to drift a bit lower support make them into play in around the 1300 Big psychological number already, which is roughly this area here also 1298 and if you drop below that you can be looking handy back down towards this area here at 1276 I'll take a look now what's going on on the oil market starting off a brink fruit So brink crude oil I said at least in bounce back since late late December And especially regaining a fair bit of the ground and hold above the 50 moving average here This blue line here, but it's really struggle to actually move on progress on much higher The area this price action here around 63 spot 35 seems to be acting as resistance Accounting to get above that level, but at the same time We're training at a fairly small range and while we hope you hold above the 50 moving average at 59 spot 25 It's likely that the upward move a bounce back from December is going to continue But keep in mind 63 spot 35 is acting as fairly decent resistance So if you do get a break above that we could be looking ahead towards the mid-November high of 68 spot 36 Or if you do see a break below the 50 moving average that could be a sign that the wider downward trend That's that that began back a lot over could be could be resumed and we could really be heading back down towards 5750 or if you head back down towards potentially as low as the $50 per bar mark It's a reasonably similar Chart on WTI Well, we've had a fairly decent bounce back since late December and the market has managed to actually kind of print out fresh Multi-month highs only last week we got we got to have levels not seen since mid-November last year But as you can see here, it seems to be fairly lackluster remark edged a bit higher But then it's drifted a bit lower again. It's holding above. It's it's 50 moving average which comes to play a $50 point and 73 cents if you can hold above that we could see the market push on higher from here And if you take out the recent high of 55 spot 45, we could be looking at targeting this price here in at 58 spot 10 Whereas a move to move to the downside below $50 a barrel could point that policy direction of heading back down towards 47 or even that back down towards the kind of forward to mark near the lows of late December Take a look now at the euro versus the US dollar So as you can see here, we're well below the two not moving average this red line here And even though we've we've brought even pushing higher from mid-December onwards We can see more recently at the market has been being pushing to the downside in the last number of weeks This area in at 113 teams be holding up as 30 decent support But if you have a break below that we could be looking heading back down towards the one spot 12 16 area And it moves to the upside if you find resistance in around the 115 mark and if you go beyond that 115 70 moving potentially the next big area of resistance to the upside and I'll take a look at pound US dollar Similar a share for by we've clearly gotten a fair bit of dollar strength in the last number of weeks And the pound is like the euro has also been sliding versus the greenback in recent weeks But notice how the pound is still well off the well off the the the lows of December So the pound has been drifting lower We've fallen back below the 200 moving average which comes into play at one spot 30 28 While we hold south of that it's likely we could see further losses And if should we drift on lower from here, we could be looking heading back down towards Heading back down towards one spot 28 18 and a move below that could take us back down towards the 126 region If you do manage to actually move back above the 200 moving average keep on out for 132 This price area here. And then if you go beyond that, we could be looking heading up towards one spot 32 98 or 133 got to the to the upside I'll take a quick look now what we can expect this week The week head article can be found on our trading platform If you go to cmsgmarkets.com under news analysis, you'll find a bulk of the analysis by myself and other market analysts produce The week head article here tells us that Dunnell have first half figures on wednesday Wednesday, we also have uk cpi on thursday We have treason treason a's and brexit plan b vote taking place on thursday We also have eu Both figures coming out keep mind italy is already in procession We're seeing slimes that slimes are slowing on to france and germany So keep an eye out for that on thursday the chicago market on exchange cme group They have fourth quarter figures and they be reported as do coca-cola On friday, we have us retail sales, which would be of particular importance Because this this gives indication of how confident us consumers are and actually spending actually spending We've seen some broadly speaking some positive earnings out of the out of the u.s In recent months So any sign that that us consumers are actually going to spend is going to continue on the continue pushing the economy in the right direction and on friday We have we also have full year figures from rollback to scotland and we also have first quarter numbers from john deere group over in the us Just while i have you here i'll also talk to you about insights and chart forum on our trading platform under a market pulse Second option down is insights, which is this update here Some of the analysis that we do gets posted to the insights directly on our trading platform and throughout the day We also have economic indicators of any growth figures or Economic announcements or at least they get updated on the inside section of our trading platform And also here is chart forum chart forum is a third option down on the market pulse tab And this is where we set up and did around this and anybody who has a cmc account Can actually just take a screenshot of a particular chart and write some comments down on which they feel The which way the price is going And finally if you have any comments to make on this video or any of the other videos We've made here at cmc markets. Please feel free to leave a review on good reviews. That's all for me this week. Thank you very much