 Okay, welcome everybody to the Weekly Charcing Analysis Webinar with myself, Jasper Lawler. Got the risk warning on the screen, which I hope you all see fine, looks like you should do. I'm going to scroll through that and then dig a little deeper into what's going on in the market and what could happen this week. Now, just generally as far as some of the sort of general discussion about today's market, obviously we're sort of coming off the attack in Paris is a big factor in today's market. You know, it's a human tragedy, but I don't think it's being viewed as a sort of potential financial tragedy here, so it's obviously affecting confidence on a kind of broader level. But really no direct financial effects that we can really speak of for the moment. There is some speculation about it affecting the travel and leisure sector, particularly if Europe starts constructing a bit more of a boundary around the states that makes things a little bit harder for these travel companies to attract business. And on the fringe is potentially some of the luxury companies like Burberry. A lot of their sales go to tourists. You know, if the tourism industry suffers from this, people are less inclined to travel at the risk of terrorism, then, you know, it's obviously not so good for the hotel stocks and like I mentioned for the stocks, Burberry and the likes. Overall, as you can see, you know, our industry prices have us up today. The cash prices are kind of flat. We're up quite decently in the 50.4% on the cash market, about 0.2% on the DAX, flat on the CAC, all of them coming off early losses. So it's an initial sell-off, sort of fear-based initial panic reaction to the attacks. But you know, this sort of realization that really, even though it's tragic for many reasons, it's probably not going to have too much of a financial impact and so markets have come back. But on the broadest scale, I think, if we do have a look at some of these indices here, you know, I'm in the UK, I'll start in the UK, I was hovering over the US there, but you know, you can see we've, we broke some critical support last week. So we've got a bit of sort of a rough shod channel taking place in the 50 here, depending where you draw this. If you do draw this trend line through this first low, which arguably there's good reasons for doing that, that was kind of the first low put in. This was a little false break of that same, and that same support was used. You use your trend line through there, we're actually bouncing off it. If you use that second low, we're bouncing before it. But some sort of support coming into the market there. And so, you know, this is the kind of general structure of the market we are in at the moment. We're in this kind of rising channel, yet in the short-term momentum is definitely, you know, the sort of, you know, the short-term as in I'm talking over the past sort of two weeks, you know, two week type horizon is the trend is down. And the critical one was just when we broke through here on Thursday last week. That was a big down day. Before that, it was kind of a bit of a nothing week. And then Thursday, we fell off quite substantially. And to me, now there's going to be a substantial barrier from these previous lows, because we're below the 200-day moving average. We're making lower lows on the kind of shorter timeframe. So the trend to all intents and purposes is down. But, you know, not as conclusively as if we were below these lows over here. We're not, you know, if I pull out to the weekly chart, for example, on this footsie here, you can see that we put a higher high here. And we've made, sorry, a higher low there and a higher high here. So this is the trend that we're talking about, the channel. And so from that perspective, still we're kind of broadly supportive. And it's only when we're making lower weekly lows and lower weekly highs, then we can have that extra level of confidence to selling into short-term downtrends as we're witnessing at the moment. We don't quite have that at the moment. So it's, you know, two scenarios, really, is that this correction's over and we're able to pull back within the channel, or the fact that we're below the 200-day moving average and we're in the short-term downtrend takes precedent and we eventually see a break in this trend. I'm in the latter camp. I think that was quite a big sell-off that we saw last week. And I think we could push a little lower from here. But I am cognizant of the idea that we're not quite in fall-down trend territory. We're still essentially in a kind of, you know, if you use the weekly charts, you're kind of in a longer timeframe range. Now, that's the, see, that's the UK 100, obviously our proxy to the 50. That's one of the worst-looking indices, actually. If we flip over to another part of Germany here in the other part of Europe. So I look at the German DAX. Here, you know, the big levels of support and resistance have been working quite well. You know, this, you know, on the first push-up, worked to some extent, dropped a bit before it. You know, we made a second push-up, got through there, found our way to the next low here, that acted as a resistance. We came back down. We've basically, you know, I've got these two arrows here, just symbolizing that this sort of closing level to the peak here is kind of where we found some support. And so this is a strange-looking candle, obviously. We've gapped lower, and now we're pushing higher in the rest of the day. So I think to me, when we're looking at the Germany 30 here, this, you know, these sets of lows here where we said this one worked here, this one worked again in terms of the lows there. This sort of zone, I think if we get a close above here today, I guess capped by the sort of, I think in a chart from I called it 10.726, which is based on these lows here, then I think we've got a good chance of pushing back into the 200-day moving average in the 11,000 mark. But still, we are below the 200-day moving average. We have broken the lows here. So there's some different factors to consider here. I mean, this is what I've kept in my chart for a while, is that this is a double bottom, this is a completed double bottom pattern. We've broken through the neckline, come into the 200-day moving average, and now we've bounced off the neckline again. So for those of you who have bought on that breakout of the double bottom pattern, probably feeling a little bit relieved that the latter part of the morning's price action today occurs, it looks like we're confirming that double bottom neckline for a repush into the 200-day moving average, and then maybe a push back up to these highs up here. So, you know, you look at the picture on the footsie, it's looking a little negative, but certainly some uncertainty in terms of the sort of longer term trend with basically range bound. Here in the Germany 30, similar sort of range bound overall conditions on the longer term with that broken support on the short term. Nonetheless, there's a reversal pattern that's in play here which could suggest a push higher. So I think the way to approach this is the chances increase that this double bottom is playing out if we get a nice finish to today with a close above this zone. Hello there. Well, we're just going to have to wait for a close above there, I think, to tell us that we're pushing back into the 200-day for another test there. And even if we get to the 200-day, it's not to say that the 11,000 mark, that's quite substantial resistance now. It's not to say we can't fail again there and drop off. But I think probably the number of tests that we failed at there, if we get up there again, my suspicion would be that we get a break to the top side, obviously. Now this is U.S. markets. This is a weekly chart. Oops, made the wrong thing there. So I pointed out this 38.2% last week before we got there is just because it does line up, particularly when you look on a daily chart, with basically this kind of low slash breakout zone here is what I highlighted and that's pretty much where we're coming out of at the moment. Each of these Fibonacci's works quite well because this similar, if you remember, that's kind of the neckline on the double bottom in the German DAX. We pushed a lot higher than there in U.S. markets. That's kind of the equivalent, probably the same date. That support, again, adds these lows here on the 50. So if we do drop down again, that's some potential support. And then these were these two peaks here with the false break and then the retest there fills quite nicely in line with the 61.8% of this rally from the 29th of September. So we're back below the 200-day moving average on the U.S. markets as well. The theme in the European markets is that we failed to get through them and failed to get through the 200-day and have fallen off in the U.S. markets. We did get through it, but now we've dropped below them again. So the first test is, can we hold this 38.2% area? If we get a close above there, it's looking good. A close back above the open of this candle from Friday would be even bigger confirmation. But again, we're making lower lows now. This was, I had this previously, and it's just a small area that I'd mentioned in one of the previous chart forum posts. I think it was one of these. Maybe it was there at an exit. If we drop through there, that opens up the 38.2. And that's kind of what we're dealing with. So it's not just a little tiny bump in the road like we experienced on this rally up. It's a bigger correction. We've made lower lows, but that's not to say we can't push back up again, but we've got to be aware that we can't just buy every little tiny bounce because the momentum is to the downside for now. So that's the kind of broad structure we're looking at in terms of equities. Any other slightly more unusual markets, equities-wise, if you want to discuss those, let me know. What I was going to do here is just before we get into the commodities and effects, have a little pull-up of the market calendar. So today we had Eurozone CPI. That's already taking place. That is the final one for October. So not as important as the flash number for November, which we should see before the ECB meeting in December. But nonetheless, we're out of, you know, on the headline number, we're out of deflation in the year of the year, and on the core number, 1.1%. You know, of course the target is 2%, and it's hardly runaway inflation, but it is inflation, and so it does call into question the need for further QE from the ECB in December, especially if the Fed is doing their job for them by raising interest rates and devaluing the Euro against the dollar. We've got the UK CPI. Now, again, a lot of this UK data has lost its lustre a little bit, just because, again, over the weekend we had Andy Haldane, a chief economist of the Bank of England, saying that he doesn't see the need, and I can't forget the exact wording, but doesn't see the need for a rate rise in any time soon, something along those lines, fairly explicit. And so that comes off the back of a fairly dovish set of inflation forecasts from the Bank of England, and so all this, you know, the data from the UK, except on the inflation fund, is all pretty strong, and even inflation is not that bad when you strip out all prices, but nonetheless it's just very dovish from the Bank of England. So even if we get a bit of a pop in the pound, which we can put up the general picture here, it's still fairly weak. I'll dig into the pound in a bit more detail in a minute. We've got German ZDW tomorrow. That'll probably be other sort of significance for the euro. We've also got US CPI, that's massive. You know, that's, again, that's tomorrow. And, you know, basically, if inflation starts to move in the right direction for the Federal Reserve, bearing in mind we just had that massive jobs report in October, there's a really good chance the Federal hike in December. We had some pretty awful retail sales numbers from the US last week, and, you know, most of the data, particularly manufacturing, is pretty rubbish from the US, but, you know, it's still creating jobs and there's a big question mark, do we really need emergency measures for an economy that's not exactly booming, struggling on the manufacturing front, so inflation, but, you know, still do we need, you know, do we need emergency measures? Probably not. Probably haven't for a long time. It is about time they normalize policy and it's just a matter of, well, can inflation just at least sort of move in the right direction? It's hard to see, even if all that's said, it's hard to see the Fed actually raising rates if inflation is dropping. I mean, that's fairly unusual because at the end of the day, one of their mandates is to hit their inflation target in order to maintain price stability. So if they're not, you know, if they're not doing that, if it's, you know, one thing would be if inflation was just holding it flat at a low level, but otherwise the economy was stable and producing jobs, that would be one thing. But if inflation is actually dropping, you know, I think they'll probably err on the side of caution and wait. So that, again, that's just the importance of the CPI number tomorrow. Good industrial production as well. That's probably going to be pretty poor. You know, obviously we could, you know, you never know whether it's going to be consensus or not, but it's expected to be pretty weak. It's expected to improve over the month whereas we saw a contraction last time, but I would say based on the current trend of things, entirely likely that it does miss expectations. UK retail sales later in the week. We do have the, I think we've got, where we've got the Fed minutes should be out. ECB minutes, I mean. We're not in our calendar. So that ECB minutes nonetheless. I would argue is probably the bulk of what's important in the following week. Obviously if you're tracking all prices, you want to watch inventories. And of course we've got some PMIs coming in the following week. ECB minutes are on Thursday. Maybe everyone else saw that, but I didn't. So since we've been discussing the economy calendar, let's have a look at greater context of what we're dealing with FX-wise. So euro in some respects, similar to some of the indices where the short-term trend, unmistakably down, you know, if you're looking at more like the kind of day trading time frames of an hourly chart, you know, definitely sloping down from left to right, you know, consolidating at the moment, but more of a consolidation within a downtrend, more of a continuation pattern, I would argue, than a bottom taking place at the moment. And the longer scheme of things, broken a significant trend line, retress dropped, but still above the march lows. So not making, you know, not really making weekly charts lower lows. Weekly chart lower lows, not so much the monthly chart lower lows. So it's certainly a bearish environment at the moment, but while we're above those march lows, always potential for quite a decent strong bounce after a decline like we've had. And that's basically the pattern that we've been seeing. You drop substantially, you know, maybe close to a thousand pips. You get a rebound to some more amount. That's kind of been the theme, bounce up here, drop. So I think probably the point to look at here is these lows from May and July where we've kind of done, we've had that small consolidation week in the Euro. You know, that's the kind of level to watch for here. If we push back above there, then I think we're, you know, we're basically heading back into the kind of consolidation. And I think we could get a good old rebound and maybe even that rising trend line wouldn't stop it. It could be one 10 and above that. So basically we need this to hold as resistance and then we can continue to track lower. We're trying to make this, the break of this trend line work into a new downtrend, but it's really not happening at the moment. We've just basically turned into a kind of tighter range. And yes, we broke the bottom of the range here. And certainly as we retest that low from the 29th of October, this is the potential area for the whole thing to roll down into a more accelerating downtrend. And as I mentioned, I mean, the Bank of England have got very dovish. There's a good chance that the pound can continue to decline. Obviously the big factor is really the Fed. The Bank of England don't look like they're moving anytime soon. That's pretty dovish for the pound, but will the Fed raise rates? The expectation is they will. If they don't, then we can expect the pound to push back into the top half of the range. If it really looks like they will, then I think that's when we break out of this range and retest these lows down in the 146. If you look at how many times this zone has been tested, one on the fifth, really solid weekly close below there, and there's not really much stopping us getting down to 146 again. Japan has just tipped into a recession again. So quantitative easing, not working out so well in Japan. Pretty low levels of inflation as well. Failing on most fronts, the QE, the only success for what it's worth is that the yen continues to weaken. In the aftermath of those strong Fed minutes the other week, we got that breakout of this range. We just come back and retesting that. I'm basing off these peaks over here. Basically got down close, and if today finishes as it is, that's a bit of a rising three-methods type candlestick pattern. I mean, there's more than three days in the middle of there. A bit strong move higher, a few days of weak downtrend, and then another strong surge. That's a bullish pattern. Basically that candle plus these little ones plus that if we close as we are today. So then I suspect we are going to push back through this trend line and kind of make it insignificant, but that would be back to the top of the range again. Again, obviously short-term sentiment is one thing, but longer term, fundamentally, the Bank of Japan, if anything, would probably increase their quantitative easing program because what they're doing so far is not really working and the Fed again looking to raise rates. Just to summarize there, I think the combination of this potential bullish pattern as we close as today, the breakout of this range that we're in for such a long time would be a decent setup to push us back into the resistance area into 125. On the commodities front, gold one of the bigger movers today. Obviously Silver's high beta tends to move more than gold does, but you can see technically what's going on in gold. It's quite clear cut. We've rebounded almost to the tick of the five-year lows that took place in July and had a nice hammer pattern on Thursday. Big push lower, finished the day, not quite higher, but basically flat. Drop the next day within a nice gap higher today as people flood to safety given the Paris attacks. Now we're off the highs of the day. No mistake as to why we're off those highs. It is running into that potential support turned resistance from, I would say, Thursday of September 11th low to then the October 2nd low as well. That's kind of a zone that I suspect we could push into but struggle to get through. Sentence very bearish on gold. You can tell that from the COT report. You can see that just purely in terms of the fact that we had, I think it was barring one, I think it was nine days on the trot, one, two, three, four, five, six. Yeah, nine days on the trot of quite steep declines all kicking off from, I believe that was the, that must have been the Fed minutes. Or was it non-bombs? It kind of been non-bombs. That was here when we really set off into motion. But we're basically broken above this rising channeling gold. Again, a little bounce off the multi-year lows. We have had a sort of positive bullish divergence here on the RSI from oversold conditions. So it's a moment to suggest that we could get a bit of a pop and I wouldn't be surprised to see us get back towards the 120% before we start seeing some selling again as we approach that rising channel, maybe not even getting there before we roll over and potentially push down past 1.7 and that's if we pull out to a longer-term chart, that support's held obviously since July and it's just this continuing declining kind of channel that we've got going on in gold. Silver, very similar picture typically. We actually came off almost to the tick of this December 1st low. We saw an interesting reversal on the day where we first rallied off it. It's literally in the space of about five minutes. We went from being down about 2%, sort of being up 1%, I think. That was quite a bad day on Thursday and we've got similar to gold down the next day, but then seeing a big push high today. So again, from pretty steep, oversold conditions, I highlighted this large range in last week's webinar. Obviously it's a big range, but there was always going to be some sort of reaction, I think, inside this area. And I think probably as this momentum comes undone, we could get a sudden pop up towards 15 before people start trying to sell into the downtrend again. And that could coincide with the 40 level on the RSI, which has a slightly more obvious support through these two lows here. I pushed up into the 40, maybe to exercise this 15 and then roll over again, given that we're below the 200 day moving average. So that is about it. Thank you very much for attending today. I hope that was useful. Obviously, keep an eye out for tomorrow's CPI data from the US is really the big one. Got that ECB meeting minutes, which I struggled on my calendar, but then we also got some UK data as well. If you're trading the pound, but obviously just view it through the lens of a very dovish bank of England. All right, thanks everyone. Good luck trading this week. That's for all sunny out.