 The following is a presentation of TFNN the Tiger Technician Hour with your host Basil Chapman call now toll free at 1-877-927-6648 hi everyone Basil Chapman on this 18th of September gosh September just flew along we're looking at the Dowdown 54 30 4563 so this is really important this is a pattern that I talk about the lowercase h that goes to a lowercase m look he has your h pattern right there and then you make a lowercase m and what happens if it takes out this left-sided low right here this is on the fifth though it's at the 6th yeah the 6th of September at 34,291 there's a chance you can go down to this low of 34,023 it's a little difficult to see 29 right there and that's the low of 25th of August so in this context what we're looking at is stalling pattern in the up move of the Dow because it's still in a cell mode the weekly chart hasn't yet gone to a cell signal it will go to that if it closes below 33,850 this week or at least goes under it doesn't have to close under it I'll probably go to a cell signal and the weekly chart nothing to say it's still doing pretty well SMB we're gonna do this today because it's the beginning of the week it's the second part of the month look at the S&P S&P goes to 44 44 down five and a half we're looking at this H pattern so you've got one large H this is a second potential now just say potential we don't know you can only do your homework and say this is the pattern that I'm anticipating because of such and such and such and such well the such and such is right here but that green nine-period moving average we'll see today but so far it hasn't turned pink and looks like it could but it hasn't yet let me just check this for a moment here just want to see yeah there it is so the one minute just turned pink and I've got this left side right side price time match I didn't want to extend to the right have I got to yes I've got to the exact level so now I can say bye 10 29 this morning there's a chance that we going to hit the 44 88 level here we are at 44 92 but I also need to draw in the target support line shall we've target support line so every time it hits it it might take a little bit of a balance and I'll put an X it doesn't have to do it but this is the homework that I like to do to say hey I've done my work if the selling continues this is the way it's going to be but if it's not then there's 200-period moving average right yet 44 95 95 that's going to be a magnet and it could stay there quite a while so two patterns are fighting for prominence right here looking at the ten minute chart sideways action isn't amazing look at this between between I'll go to this bar I had one at 120 on the 15th that's 120 in the afternoon the high was 45 0 9 point 50 look at this all the way through between that low and this this that high and this lower 44 95 the E-mini stayed in this level all the way through until I was watching it this morning as it took it out at 740 but it just went underneath that at 44 4492 now it's back in this range it's making a new range a rectangle formation I love the way these things work it's just there's a price note to do that anyway it's doing that now let's do something else we want to look at the arch formation now if you look at the weekly chart I like to do this just to show you that there's a way of measuring strength look at this particular point and what date was that that was July the week of yeah July the 28th the high was 46 0 7 point 0 7 in the S&P when it made a high three weeks ago the first of the week of the first of September 45 41 a lower high the 9-period moving average was still excellent the Magdea turned down the stochastic was already turning down so I'll just do this here to show you how I like to do measured moves measured moves in terms of strength that is a vertical assessment and what we're looking at is the unbalanced volume was much lower and yet the price is held very steady I'm impressed with that I'm impressed when what should be a sharp down move instead holds very steady because there's one in this particular my indicator of last resort the 914 has held the price up look at the weekly chart really good this is a peak scene with very modest lower highs in August and September so far the unbalanced volumes pull back got a little bit overboard pull back a little bit Magdea is still good and look at the stochastic at 91% that is excellent that's the reason why I've been saying over and over and over I don't want to go heavily heavily heavily short because there's internal strength and its rotation and isn't it amazing as I said subscribers the other day I said here we are three strikes and you're right well as three strikes for the auto industry you've got crude oil look at this crude oil is up near multi-year highs or at least a year and a half highs look 92 81 I don't like to print I make this very light because I don't like to print the price in on a continuous contract because it gets smoothed out so all of a sudden that 92 81 is disappearing for the week of the 11th of November of 2022 almost a year ago that's where we were right now we're at 91 18 I would say 91 80 is that almost it's less than two dollars away from where it was almost a year ago and in the interim period it's gone all the way down to 64 this low right here was 62 point 58 62 and here we are at 90 that's a 27 something percent gain now look at the weekly monthly charge monthly charge hey don't even think about you've got a long way to get to get to a new all-time high because that all-time high was back in back in March of 2022 at 117 remember this is smooth so the right now I'm saying to 117 that nothing changes the the notation in the Chatham Wave the pattern nothing changes except the smooth the price gets smoothed out but where when was it last year it was last year in 2014 the week of June the 30th 2014 and before that was just a little higher at 120.83 and that was in August of 2013 and then you can go all the way back but the most serious high was this Russia Invades Georgia in August of 2008 and remember we went through this really carefully as it was happening I said there's a big difference yet because if this if this war it was an incursion now it's a war but if this incursion lasts more than 10 days there's a change but if it lasts more than a month there's that's a big big difference and that says it's going to last a lot longer so that's crude oil crude oil you can heating oil H.O. continuous contract and the winter hasn't started and here it is testing the triple high Wilson the quite this will be the triple high that we're looking at right now at 3.36 hey yeah yeah I'll be back puzzle chap attack and this is our downtown 38 S&P's unchanged if you're looking for potential trading setups in the stock market then rocket equities and options report is a newsletter you should try Tommy O'Brien delivers options and equity trades when the markets present them using a combination of fundamentals and technicals sign up for rocket equities and options report today with a 30-day money-back guarantee so you have nothing to risk for all the details and to start your subscription today visit the front page of tfnn.com tfnn educating investors you might think that if you want to be successful at trading in the stock market you're going to need a crystal ball after all it's impossible to predict the future right like any endeavor in life before you decide it's impossible get some advice from the experts you might find that it's not so impossible after all for daily market overviews that give you direction on the key indices selective stocks and commodities subscribe to the opening call newsletter at tfnn.com the opening call newsletter is written by Basil Chapman creator of the trading methodology known as the Chapman wave the Chapman wave up down sequence gives you an edge in identifying price turns finding the peaks and valleys and stock prices get the opening call 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if you're not satisfied let us know and you'll get a full refund within 30 days of signing up subscribe to the Fibonacci 24 7 newsletter today tfnn.com educating investors tfnn has launched the Tiger's Den hosted at discord tfnn has been educating traders for more than 20 years with live programming hosted by a variety of professional traders during market hours the Tiger's Den available to all Tigers and Tigris is for just $1 for the year there's no catch or added costs when you join our community of traders sign up today and become a part of this educational community of traders just visit the front page of tfnn.com toll free at 1-877-927-6648 internationally at 727-873-7618 so looking at the crew looking at the heating all continuous contract training at 3.37 with this peak D made on Friday a little bit lower today we got quicker with peak ABCD and now we're pulling back the last one took quite a while and took the same thing it had an instant restart this is a fascinating one because it had three buy modes AB from the low that was made back in this is May I think it was yep May the week on May the 4th it goes to 2.12 ups 2.03 at the low there goes peak ABC takes its time gets to the D and that's where the and then within one bar it goes to an E pulls back holds the 40-period moving average uses the 9-period moving average which is still very strong and it goes to peak ABCD again with the chap we've instant restart goes to peak E-A-B-C G-C watch it because very often it goes to a D but this D didn't pull back strong enough to give a cell signal because the 9 held so beautifully so it went to the E and then it pulled back quite sharply with the technicals in this case I decided that it held two bars underneath the 14 moving average that means there's a good chance that you can call that a cell signal not a cell mode yet but a cell signal and then it goes peak ABC got another D a much smaller move to the upside than the other extensive peak D's so the third time this is where you can start to see a little bit of a digestive phase and lo and behold now I drew this in during the break I normally wouldn't have done this so long I'm always a little bit more I'd say cautious it looks like it's aggressive but it really is cautious because what I would do is I'd be looking at this and I say you know that looks too long to get to back to that level I'm going to make a little bit shorter so I'm going to initially choose a particular candle that there's a methodology that I teach my subscribers and I go to a particular candle I say you know this looks closer to what I would be thinking of so let me see if I can do that and he has he has one of the lows this is one of the highs I use the high but I'm preferred to particular candle an indecisive candle and then I go green and I just say hey where's this going to take me oops I made that yellow should be green make that green remember the colors and stuff I'm using just for demonstration purposes because I could just use a single line make it a single line solid and then a dash nine I don't need all the colors and then I would say okay so this is the this is the the line that I'm talking about the inside wedge target resistance line and I'm trying to make a join right there at where this ends so this is to let's just see what happens so I do that this is kind of what I'd be doing we didn't have using all at all I'm just saying this is the analysis that I would do as I do with almost all the charts that I show my subscribers and positions we have make this green and it might or might not fit look there's nothing even getting close now starting to get a little close and no more what does it do it goes right to that particular line right there but it fails to make that high and it pulls back for one bar peak D and then look nothing's technically bad back these good stochastic flutter 91% even now as we speak and it goes to an E so it's one it's two bars late now there was two bars late gate all the way back to November the week in November the fourth and it's already gone from 3.45 down to $2 and something cents 2.03 is that I mean that's amazing right so this has met all the criteria and this is the what I would call a lopsided cup formation like that and to that level right there what I would have put it to here and it took a little longer all right so this is saying now this particular pattern here look at the high that was made in heating oil way back in June of 2022 a 2.56 continuous contract remember so that's June 2.56 look at this this is November of 2022 and that is 2 3.45 and look where we are right now 3.50 so I can now draw in a trend line so let's just do that and see how that pans out this is for heating oil heating all this is September I mean we've had some beautiful weather here on the Northeast not I don't mean beautiful in the sense that it hasn't rained all that and we didn't have storms but warm it's been pretty warm so this is what I'm looking at chap we've inside wedge so inside track make that grid make that green and it says heating oil could in fact bump into resistance for maybe a month but then there's a chance that if it takes out yeah yeah let me just do this this is live so this is expand this right now so this is the line that I'm looking at generally inside track I usually try to make it as small as possible right there and right there and low involved oh I think I should be doing something right now yeah yeah so this is it so it says that heating was making rise higher highs and not higher lows but this beautiful cup formation so this is I did a lot of work you know there's a cup and handle pattern there's another pattern that I look at just if you don't mind I have to do this and let me just check this can move that away wow that was a that was a pretty good rally up there so we're almost running out of time to come back to this never remember I like to say you're looking at two fighting patterns so this was like the cup formation right here in the one minute try to forgive me for for breaking off here but it's really what happens this first hour tonight to 10 20 and then from 10 20 to about 12 20 then 12 20 to 230 and 230 to the close today those are the segments I'm looking at so this did get to the C in the D peak C go by signal should go to a peak D so it did go to the C as your DN is holding very nicely so it didn't fail by 10 30 to get down to the 48 for 488 level instead of kept walking the nine period moving average so this is holding when I'm kind of impressed with this market when you think about all the stuff that's going on and yet it isn't just collapsing I that's the reason why we are short but I have respectful sources but of that when I wanted to add shorts and I said hi I don't trust today this is a day where overnight on Sunday night we should have been down 45 50 points in the S&P we weren't and that's just saying maybe the administration is going to do something really quickly and just say okay for I mean when you can't get to election closer to elections this is the way bargaining power becomes your best bet so I think the unions are going to get something pretty darn good the way I'm looking at it and where where can you remember three unions at once going for a strike three order unions to boot so this is to me this might resolve a little quicker that means of course you got to worry about three years out when inflation kind of kicks in when all of these different factors kick in that's something different all together maybe there'll be something to alleviate they may be down it's coming on you know oh so I lost my momentum there the crude oil the hot crude oil but I am saying the crude oil the crude oil breaks into the full wallet area this contract any two weeks it holds for two years much higher here it is close to resistance I'll be back currencies commodities and bond markets are as important as ever right now with how they're driving 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get to Eli Lilly I was going through Dow charts over the weekend look at this this is WBA this is Walgreen Walgreen boots I can't believe what's going on here which also remind me as I'm looking at it I had this chart which I drawn ages ago because we had George from New York who was interested in that a long time ago and we did an analysis on it it had a couple of balances but basically it's making low lows and George actually I didn't hear from George for a little while I'm a little kind of concerned so George I hope you're doing well so look at this from 2008 where it made a low of 21.28 that's October of 2008 that's 21.28 the low on March the March of 2009 was 21.39 that's I'd say that that's about 11 cents higher and then it took off and it ran all the way to this Chapman wave two bar reversal 97 27 July of 2015 to 97.33 cents higher September of 2015 exactly seven years eight years ago and I should type that in 1992 point of 90 there we go so that's 97.30 in August 97.38 20 2015 okay so it has a little bit of a tumble it's now down to 21.96 remember the low that we were looking at here 21.28 was it double bottom 21.28 next next month was 21.50 so 21.28 back in October of 2008 21.28 10.8 that was the monthly year 20 wow that was 20.09 gosh so here it's back cut cut about 60% off it's high so my thinking has been companies like this when you've got a CVS I'm gonna get to Lily because I just wanted to do this this medical field so CVS oops type it into there there we go CVS which has a much better looking chart now I have this all notated I lost all that I'll do it again I can do it I don't want to waste time so it made this beautiful cup formation failed right here now this is absolutely the Chapman very long-legged Chapman wave Roman candle high I mean wow I mean what more could you want in terms of analysis right so here you go from this side how these bar symmetries work is just there's a Chapman wave 2 bar reversal right there at an all-time high and it goes right to this particular low right here click now we're gonna go let me just double-check that wasn't so that's 111 65 and 111 113 1365 1358 so it goes from there that's a perfect Chapman wave 2 bar reversal I prefer when it's just a couple of cents off the left side high okay so within that context if I go to this low right here the exact low then we can do this and go left side right side price time-match boom this and it goes beyond I probably would have wanted to use that candle right there that would have been still long but it doesn't matter and then it fails to get to that level just by a tad and then it turned down made it the drop bucket or the cup and handle formation failure and now it's down in the 70.80 level it actually was down to 63 was it a 64 64.62 just a month ago okay so I was thinking there's a chance that someone a company like a CVS could get if they were actually interested if this was an area that they wanted to add to they could go to the two Walgreens I don't see anything anything at this particular point that's really gonna help Walgreens to have anything but a balance and this is a takeover talk so it's just interesting that different chart patterns and I showed this the other day we didn't show this particular sequence but I showed how within the pharmaceuticals you could get an Eli Lilly doing fantastic making all-time eyes you can get a Merc not quite as good but still really good not now it's still made an all-time eye just a couple of months ago and then you can get other pharmaceuticals that were just not they just couldn't get everything together and I went through about three stocks in every sector so now what I want you to say says I discussed Eli Lilly in terms of saying this is by any measure this MagD that's the biggest move it's had ever right by any measure but the stochastic's flat at 94% that's really good the on balance volume been overboard for a while it doesn't care the price is way above the 9 the 9 period moving averages way above the 40 there is nothing other than a visual look at it that says wow parabolic or not quite parabolic but close to parabolic that has to be it's time for a big timeout the stock doesn't know it it's just doing what it needs to do because it's got a good bunch of fundamentals but what I said the question came in where where would I start entering Lily if I if I love the stock but I just it's what would I do and what I'd say this I'd wait a little bit because the data has got a peak D that was on Friday I'm anticipating a little bit more of the move this is the area 550 would be where I would start my initial entry point but I'd still be careful I'd much be prefer that you use an option a call option going into January or maybe December give it a lot of time because I think if this digest gains which we've seen in a lot of stocks over the last year that have had spectacular moves when they give back they give back quite a chunk and they do it very very quickly so I mean just look at Coca-Cola look at the data chart I mean all the weekly look double top peak C makes a D just fractionally higher and look what it is it's underneath the cup look at GIS also in the XLP in the select defense this is a defensive area general Cheerios Annie's and other foods look at that peak F in the week monthly look at that peak E in the in the weekly look at this peak right here PG in the daily I mean that is and that's the thing I've been worried about and that's what we found that's the reason why I've been taking for subscribers we've been taking money off on the big moves up even this UEC we took a lovely chunk off on Friday a tad I should say but it's getting so overboard that I've got to be a little careful well the pullback so far today to 490 when it was trading at 555 I mean that's an 11% decline now it's already come back now just down 10 cents but you've got to have money management in this environment I'll be back and we'll discuss million a little bit more detail and then I want to continue looking at all the other areas the gold report as a precious metal gold is still king it continues to hold the most effective safe haven and hedging properties across the global major trading hubs of the London OTC market the US futures market and the Shanghai Gold Exchange the gold report Tom O'Brien publishes his weekly gold report every Monday morning for subscribers consisting of coverage of the XAU HUI GDX the dollar bonds the South African Rand as well as 25 different mining equities with specific buy-sell recommendations the gold report new subscribers get a 30-day money back guarantee so you have nothing to risk subscribe to Tom O'Brien's gold report newsletter now at TFNN.com are you ready to take your trading to the next level introducing Tom O'Brien's award winning newsletter market insights your key to successful active trading Tom O'Brien renowned for his expertise in the financial markets has designed market insights to be your 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whether you think the biotech bull has room to run or has run its course trade LABU or LABD directions daily S&P biotech three times bull and bear ETFs visit direction investments.com slash biotech today an investor should consider the investment objectives risks charges and expenses of the direction shares carefully before investing the prospectus and summary prospectus contain this and other information about direction shares to obtain a prospectus or summary prospectus please contact direction shares at 866-476-7523 the prospectus or summary prospectus should be read carefully before investing an investment in the funds is subject to risk including the possible loss of principal the funds are designed to be utilized only by sophisticated investors such as traders and active investors distributor for side fund services LLC this program is brought to you by Vista Gold traded on the NYSE American and TSX under the symbol VGZ this is really fascinating I'm busy doing this thinking that the question was where do I enter along I think that was a question last week for some but actually I just got a note say oh this is the one that lost that the notation yeah yeah yeah what am I going to do now all right I'll just do this and type it in and see what happens peak a there it's gone peak B I'll do this you can see it I'll have to do find out what's going on with this particular C1 big C2 right there then it goes peak a B C D and there's your E just like you got the G slash C goes I usually goes through a D and then you're going to be careful this meant to the D and then quickly went to the E now it's coming down so this is what I'd be looking at just about everything I said before as if you were long thinking where you would like to nibble I'm going to say on the short side at this shorting right at the top which I congratulations I think this is just pretty much what you did is what gives you a little bit of a cushion so you see this little gap yet about 560 and the low today has been 564.41 I'm going to do this I'm going to make it as conservative as possible I go from this low not the very low I'm going to go from this low to this particular candle right here I like cup formation lows as a visual that I can benchmark and then I'm going to go right here and I'm going to say I should I move it to the right I'll do that number of bars to the right this is take it here format space to the right it's an 8 I'm going to make it 15 and now what we've got and this is what I'd be looking at by 15 30 by 3 30 on the 21st of this week I probably say it's even quicker than that I'm just being a little conservative here there's a chance that Eli Lilly will I'll go to this one here we'll hit that level of this particular low right here okay 552 whoa that's a long way to go so I would normally I'd go to this level here because this is your a Chapman wave inside track no this is you this is a Chapman wave inside wedge support line right there okay so that's what we're looking at yes your arch formation don't be don't be surprised there's such a strong stock that it bounces to 580 if it goes to 580 you got to be a little bit careful but this is kind of what I'm looking at right now that over the next couple of days starts to make low lows and lower highs it's just at a point where it's going to try to do something because that was really quick after such a fabulous move to the upside but I would treat this as a short-term trade and you might be surprised and it actually does everything you want but when it's this strong buyers are very reluctant to give up it would have to be trading under 540 probably under 540 to 540 that area for people to say oh man I've got it this is not working for me okay but I think you absolutely the entry that you've got if you did get it earlier than this like Friday sometime that's great you've got a little bit of a cushion and next thing we want to look at here is let's go through this the high grade copper high grade copper is just in a trading range lowercase h goes to a lowercase there we go I can still treat this just as one big arch formation in this particular point got repelled under the 200-period moving average question came in when you go XLE could you look at your XLE yep XLE this is almost like Eli Lilly and that it had a fantastic move to the upside this I keep talking about this and I keep getting surprised when people look at this and they say well can you look back and I'll look back and I say wait a minute the XLE select S&P energy spider fund made a high of 94.71 the week of the 18th of November so there it is so this is 94.71 I should type that in because I'm not able to forget it and what was the high just the other day 94.71 and what did it do it ran to a high three days ago last Thursday of 93 93.69 amazing huh this is almost a year later 93.69 so within that context now a lot of people are here look at this and they say it's gone nowhere I can never do that I mean what do you mean go nowhere it dropped by about a third it went down to the 75 area it ran up to 87 that's a good good percentage move comes back makes the lowercase H successful left side does not test it holds it successfully that becomes an arch formation and that's usually a very powerful move of the closes above the dreaded H arch and look there it is now it's going to the chapter inside track resistance line look yes another one this is a bigger much bigger move but I mean I'm going to exclude that for now because normally when it's achieved all the things that we want I just get rid of it so I'm going to take this away because it doesn't for it to apply it just it's broken too many rules but this does apply this move right here where it's gone from this low from that low to the right side so now let me do a left side right side price time match look there it is 94 71 goes to that bar right there I'm going to be a little bit more there so we're going to go to this this long leg of doji is undecisive candle I'll go new I'll go green and that just says even energy is getting up to a level that says now it's going to be bumping into resistance and it right this is exactly where it's bumping into resistance there's a falling exclamation there's the breakout and it's moving to the upside this is the more conservative one I actually lifted this up once that was a more conservative one and now it's done the one-to-one to the upside I've got a little thing that I could hear and I'm going to go Garo in Newport Beach Garo how are you I'm very good sir how about you I'm very good what can we look at today looking at Moderna M RNA yes I'm sure I sure that today when it dropped below the 50 day moving average in the 15 minutes but by looking at the daily chart if you go back for two years on a daily chart yes you'll see that you'll see that 200 EMA is below the 200 SMA so whenever the 200 EMA goes below 200 SMA that is a bad news so something is going to happen or that that situation is going to continue that short what do you think sir this is gonna this is gonna be go lower after that movie after that it went below the 200 days or it's gonna go way below that around 6665 so I'm using something a little different and I'll explain as soon as we return we've got Garo Newport Beach California we're looking at Merna that's Moderna biotech and it's getting hammered today it's down eight and a half down seven percent and one of six we'll talk about it as soon as I return you might think that if you want to be successful at trading in the stock market you're going to need a crystal ball after all it's impossible to predict the future right like any endeavor in life before you decide it's impossible get some advice from the experts you might find that it's not so impossible after all for daily market overviews that give you direction on the key indices selective stocks and commodities subscribe to the opening call newsletter at tfnn.com the opening call 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going to say to you that that in this particular pattern if Moderna closes it might just hit it but i'm really talking about a close if it closes under the candle of the 21st of august which the low was 101.82 if it closes under that i think it's going to be a fairly quick ride down to the 90 to test the 95.02 low that was made on the 16th and i would just go step by step the fact that it's walking underneath i don't know if you can see my chart but if you look at this weekly chart look at the way it cannot it has not closed above the 14 period above the yep the black 14 period moving average closed i mean since the week of the 27th of january of this year where it was at 198 so this just says uses one indicator and it says it's still the pink is underneath the 14 period moving average in the weekly but i know you don't always use things a longer term like this but i would say to you it's in the h pattern right now for it to change it we'll probably have to close uh by wednesday above 110 i think that's going to be very difficult right now so i think you're in the right position congratulations yes sir yes sir yes sir very good very good thank you so much for looking down all the numbers down and i go by there yeah i appreciate it thank you so much thank you guys folks we've got steve rosie's back they're looking forward to his show and i just wanted to say that if the dow closes down let me just do this real quickly if the dow off to three o'clock is up 30 or 40 points that's kind of good if it's down more than 50 that says just be real careful the right catch in the