 All right, the chair becomes very tough, so I have to be. All right, this is the Ethiopian experience. Well, I'm from United Nations University, Merit, from Maastricht. Well, there is revival of interest in industrial policy, where we are all gathering here. But controversies still remain on the functional versus selective comparative advantage following the nature of state and business relationship. There is also renewed interest in industrial policy, making in Africa particularly, but there is little evidence so far, particularly after the reintroduction of industrial policies in recent years. So I am here to examine the choice, implementation process and outcome of the Ethiopian industrial policy. Well, it is one of the few African countries that have formulated and implemented full-fledged industrial policy even early in the 2000. Government has shown extraordinary commitment and ownership implemented through subsequent development plans and various sub-sector strategies. Well, the outcomes so far appear to be a bit mixed. I will see in detail what does that mean. I give you some numbers here. Well, the average growth of Ethiopia in comparison to the sub-Saharan Africa average, it's more or less more than double in terms of GDP growth in the last decade. Industry also grew by 10% and the manufacturing sector by 9.4%, particularly after the implementation of the industrial policy between 2004 and 2011. If you compare to the sub-Saharan Africa, this is more than double. But we lag behind in terms of level. So this is a country in catching up context even with the sub-Saharan average. So it is half of the industry value added into GDP in comparison to sub-Saharan Africa. Also the manufacturing value added contribution to GDP and as well as manufacturing exports as percentage of merchandise exports, it's almost like one-third of the African average. So we have to do a lot even if there is promising developments. In Ethiopia, manufacturing sector emerges in the 1920s. For example, in 27, there were 25 manufacturing factories, mostly established by foreigners. The sector starts to get momentum in the 50s. This was also a period that marks the start of a conscious plan to promote industrial development and the economy at large. Ethiopia has seen three regimes over the last eight decades, the imperial regime up to 74, the derg regime, 74, 91, and the aperitif regime since 91. So these successive governments had their own industrial policies. I wouldn't go into detail, but let me show you this table. The imperial regime, the industrial policy was market-friendly, market-oriented, private-led, but dominance of foreign-owned enterprises. Target industries were import substituting and labor-intensive industries where envisaged key players were foreign investment. Well, the policy instruments, as you see, protection of domestic market and at the same time provision of economic incentives. The derg regime period was a common economy. Every medium and large enterprise were nationalized. This were also reorganized under state-owned enterprises. So there was dominance of public-owned enterprises. But the whole strategy of industrial development of Ethiopia at that time was import substituting and also labor-intensive, at the same time basic industries were favored. The key player was the public sector at that time. There were also protection and financial subsidy to the public sector. The aperitif regime post 1992, market-oriented, private-led, but also the involvement of the state, well, strong state role, dominance of domestic-private. There is a change from import substituting to export-oriented. Well, the leading engine of the private, I mean, the manufacturing sector would be the domestic-private sector. There are also some policy instruments, direct support and provision of economic incentives. What you can see from this graph that particularly we have data from 1981 until 2011, you see that the regime period were declining period until 1991. After the government change, there was some improvements. But particularly the last decade was on average, 10 or more grows in GDP, industry value added and manufacturing value added. When we see the entry process, you can see in 80, there were only 351 number of establishments that employee 10 or more employees that go down at the end of the DERG regime to 75. After that, it improved and in 2010, it reached 2172. This is like more than tripled in the last 10 years. But the public share has declined as you see. Let me give you the ideas. I'm in the present industrial development strategy, major principles. Well, the primary principle is the linkage between industry and agriculture because this is based on the philosophy of agricultural developmental-led industrialization. Other principles, export-oriented, labor-intensive and public-private partnership. Mechanism of engagement, well, creating conducive environment and also direct support for selected sectors. Here are the main ways the government sees to create conducive business environment. When we look at the macro stability, well, government envisaged single-digit inflation, but there was a high record of inflation since 2005-2006. It was also envisaged low interest rate, but virtually it was negative because of high inflation but controlled interest rate. The real effective exchange rate also appreciated due to high domestic inflation. So there was unexpected developments in terms of macroeconomic. There was also institutional regulatory reforms in this period. Well, competition policy, business registration, investment code, et cetera, et cetera, but the main initiative at this period was the civil service reform program and that has improved service delivery substantially, particularly for the private sector. Well, if you see this doing business indicator, they have improvement up to 2010, but declined from 2011. What happened? There was some reversal of reforms and ranking. In the post-2010, went for an exchange shortage, uphearest government shut down 90 for warehouse of coffee exporters when inflation source makes some futile efforts using price cap to control prices and also it revised the business registration to reduce the monopoly power of wholesalers, particularly importers, et cetera, et cetera. And starting 2011, private banks are forced to purchase NB bonds, national bank bonds to finance the government huge investment, public investment. So these are reduced in some way the confidence and policy predictability. That's why we see some declining here. Sectoral policies, well, textile, meat, other agro-industry construction and the micro-industrial enterprise are the priority sectors, but the list of priority sectors has been updated through time. Well, there are some economic incentives that are also direct supports. I don't have time to go to all these details, but I have here compared the three sectors, three industries particularly, the textile and the leather industry and the flour industry. The flour industry was a sector that emerged by itself, but the leather and the textile industry was in the priority list from the beginning and their performance you can see. The flour industry, it emerges itself, it reaches like 189 USD in 2011 for an exchange, but textile, it's only 71, but it was envisaged to generate 500 million USD. But of course, this is like seven-fold in comparison to the base year in 2004, 2005, but in terms of target, it is shortfall. It is the same also in the leather industry. Let me go through to the emerging and remaining issues. Where are the goals yet achieved, that is mixed outcome, GDP and all other sub-sectors grew 10% or more, but industry contribution to GDP remains stagnant still less than 14%. The country more than double its country export earnings, but diversification mainly outside manufacturing. High entry of firms into manufacturing sector, but new entrants are mostly small, there is dual structure continuing. The new entrants are also mostly domestic oriented, export sectors are underperforming, so manufacturing contribution to merchandise export remain low, even by sub-saharan Africa standard. There is increasing import dependency and weak domestic linkage, so exports increasingly constrained by lack of quality of inputs in domestic markets, despite inferences to address them. So a regular review of policies and instruments need to be instituted with the aim of identifying emerging bottlenecks, but of course the policies have to look the whole value chain and at the same time horizontal linkage. Second, there is an issue of choice of champion or activities or products. Why has the flower industry that has been successful but not the textile and laser industry that received the most attention long before the flower industry? There are three alternative views regarding identification of potential products whether government should choose or let it for the market whether it's combined. Well, data and experience supports the third view, but one need to introduce mechanism to elicit valuable information from the private sector on the potential industry through continuous consultation. This also involves continuous experimentation. Lastly, on the nature of public-private partnership, the European Industrial Policy made distinction between developmental and rent-seeking private sector to promote the former and to curtail the latter. Government provides generous incentives and support programs to build the private sector capacity, the carots. At times, particularly recently, it has introduced a number of measures, sticks, alleging to discipline the reg private sector, increasing tension and policy uncertainties around the private sector. Yet a number issues arise regarding the effectiveness of instruments. How much rent and how long should the private sector in the select sectors be given to bear fruits? What form of relationship should be instituted between the government and the private sector? How do you create an environment that maximizes the social benefits and limit rent-seeking? There are critics that the instruments, that means the carots and sticks are not transparent and policymakers tend to patronize the private sector instead of encouraging competition and innovation. There is also emerging concerns that the public investment expansion is dwarfing the private sector. For example, credit for an exchange availability, et cetera. So the public investment rate, I mean, a recent World Bank report that maybe last month says that the public investment rate in Ethiopia is the third highest in the world, while the private investment rate is the sixth lowest in the world. So a lot of money or finance is going to the public sector like drying the source of finance for the private sector. So vibrant private sector is critical for effectiveness of industrial policy. Therefore, the government need to address the above and other emerging issue. Thank you.