 Hello, welcome to NewsClick. You are watching Present, Past and the Future and I am Nilanjan Mukhopadhyayi. In less than 100 days, the entire process for Lok Sabha elections is going to begin when the election commission announces the schedule for the elections and then the counting. Now, very recently in the assembly elections the BJP was voted out of power in 3 states. There are few major takeaways which happened from these results. One is that the Congress was unable to convert decisively the loss in the support of the BJP. The swing away from the BJP was not matched by the swing in favor of the Congress because it did not have any alliances. It may have decided not to have any alliances for tactical reasons basically because it wanted to show that what it can get on its own. It has served the message and immediately after the elections various other political parties most importantly the Bahujan Samaj Party and the Samajwadi Party said that they are going to extend external support to the Congress ministries in these 3 states. Not that in Chhattisgarh they actually require any support but in Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh this is extremely vital. There is another very important message which we get is that as yet there is no single individual leader who has the capacity to pose a challenge to Narendra Modi at a national level. So, now how does things look at? You know in 2014 when we go back and look at the results we will find that the BJP had got 282 seats with just 31 percent of popular vote. Along with its allies it was around 37 percent which means that huge amount 63 percent of people did not vote for the BJP or for its alliance partners. In 2014 the index of opposition unity was at its all-time low. There was no alliances between opposition parties virtually in most states. As a result of which and fragmentation of anti-BJP votes the BJP even with 30-31 percent or even 32 percent they managed to win a majority of the seats first time after 30 years that any single party was able to get a majority on its own. It becomes very important therefore to talk about what is the likely scenario? How are things looking at the moment? Is there any possibility of alliances coming up at the moment? What is going to be the best thing which can be done? Should there be, most importantly this question is that should there be an alliance at the federal level or should there be one at the state level? You know across different states. Now to discuss this I am going to be in conversation with E. Sridharan who is the director of the University of Penicillvania Institute of Advanced Studies and Rizwan Kesar and historian with very keen interest in politics who is also the director of the Center for Comparative Religions and Civilizations Jamia Miliya Islamia. Welcome to the program the two of you. Rizwan let me begin with you by looking at you know we immediately have question election and we are right in the middle of very early campaign trail which is already started you know as they say in Hindi that bighul bhajadiyya sabne. How are you looking at the emerging political scenario? Where exactly are you seeing a possible alliances coming up as far as the opposition parties are concerned? Where are the alliances of the BJP standing because the BJP has had a problem in the reverse that is some of their alliance partners continuing to have problems like the Shiv Sena or some allies of the NDA leaving it you know like you have had in Bihar you have had Upendra Kuswaha quitting you had had Ditan Ramaji quitting some months ago. You have had these kind of peculiar problems the Akali Dal does not seem to be very happy about several aspects of this government. How are you broadly speaking looking at this entire thing purely from the political sense of it? One thing that seems pretty clear that other than BJP no other political party can really think of an all India presence in a robust manner. In view of the fact that the way Congress was reduced to whatever number of seats in 2014 they are still smarting under kind of a defeat fear whatever however you will have to recognize the fact that there has been kind of a leadership crisis in Congress establishment which the party seems to be overcoming now. Rahul is able to establish himself whichever way you want to look at it. I mean the manner in which the media the other opposition party especially the party in power BJP kept on projecting him as Rahul Baba, Pappu etc. He has been able to convey this impression. Exactly not only Pappu passed the manner in which he carried the conviction the kind of campaign the issues that he flagged etc. I think if that is the tempo which is maintained is vitally important for Congress to register a significant element of victory in order to strike alliance. If you are talking about pre-pol alliance now the pre-pol alliance is not only of the ideology or the political possibility but it is also question of leadership. The manner in which divergent voices are emerging from different parts of India that does not really augur well and in the sense that it gives this impression that people are more interested in the leadership question than forming an alliance in a way. Number two very quickly to say many many of these parties governing parts of India such as Andhra Pradesh or Bengal or somewhere else they think that for the sake of the country and democracy is important to join hands in order to defeat BJP. But then that is still looks like a possibility and a slogan but then to translate into a distinct political reality they got to work harder on the ground. You know Sridharan if we actually look at things you know as to how it has happened this entire idea of Mahagatpandan. Now I have argued that this is primarily been foisted upon the nation's imagination by the BJP because they have felt that it would suit them if there is going to be a Narendra Modi versus XYZ fight ideally speaking Rahul Gandhi with his previous image of being somebody who is not very smart somebody who is a pappu you know in you know somebody who is not really you know up to matching Modi in terms of the political charisma among the people. If you ask BJP leaders in private about their nightmare situation they say that we fear an aggregation of state elections. Yet there has been some revival even from the opposition of a federal alliance you know Chandra Babu Naidu did talk about it. Sharad Pawar has also been talking about it so there are various straws in the wind. There are regional leaders who are very skeptical about it for their own political aspirations their own ambitions leaders like Mamta Banerjee leaders like KCR though he is more identified with the BJP various other people. There is definitely skepticism and of course this huge question mark that how are the big two regional players Maya Vati and Akhilesh Yadav how they going to play because 80 seats of UP possibly will have the key to the heart of Indian politics. Let me just as you said presidential style contest between Modi and whether it is Rahul or anybody else in the opposition. The BJP has been forcing it will be advantageous to the BJP and but I don't think that's going to happen because I think putting together a mark at Bandhan sort of federal alliance is going to be a nightmarishly difficult proposition. Also maybe unwise would you say. I well rationally it may be if they are able to decide on seat sharing arrangements but that's going to be nightmarishly difficult state by state. So most likely I think what we are going to see is a state by state seat sharing arrangements. Now to step back a bit from this you know if you look at comparative coalition experience around the world and you look at coalition theory there are two rough formula formulae. One is the what's called the sitting getting formula that is a party which occupies the seat gets the gets the seat and now that implies a certain rigidity because you can't shift according to the way the ground level situation is shifting. The second theory is what is called perceived pivotality that is a party with a small vote share but which can be bridging vote share make the difference between loss and victory will can be in a position to demand more seats because it's pivotal to victory. This is what the BSP actually has historically been its strategy why possibly in Madhya Pradesh they're demanding far more than they were demanding far more pivotality perceived pivotality tried to exploit that but the Congress rejected that and the result was the one very narrow victories in Rajasthan. So who in this tussle to you you know that's so scoring brownie points over each other between the BSP in the Congress at the end of December 11 when the verdict came out who do you think had the last laugh who do you think made the right choice in terms of not succumbing to the other person's demand. I think the BSP has had the last laugh because they are now pivotal in the post-election scenario in Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh. So in a sense they can be seen as exploiting their pivotality even post-election they tried to exploit a pre-election to get a bigger share of seats allocated to them but for contesting but that didn't work but in the end they are looking like being pivotal in these two states. Now let me just check with you know Rizwan no Sridharan is saying you know the BSP has had the last laugh they are not going to be pivotal. How does this you know according to your mind play in UP. There are two distinct possibilities one is that we may see a BJP versus the SP BSP RLD plus Congress the other is that they do not touch the Congress leave out the Congress. You know of these there is the pros and cons of both approaches for within the BSP and the SP is being talked about how do you look at this entire as far as UP is concerned. Let me very quickly join the issue with Sridharan. Say for instance the kind of alliance BSP is stuck with Ajit Jogi and Chhattisgarh. What happened to them is completely like wiped out. As far as Madhya Pradesh is concerned yes I mean in a way she was confident. So I have a take on that as to why in Chhattisgarh the Congress was able to to get the swing in its favor whereas they failed to get the swing against the BJP from. Irrespective of the swing irrespective of the swing Nelanja let me tell you I mean it look as if Congress had done a great blunder and missed the bus again and now you see the result is something vastly different. Look at Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh nobody can deny that the presence of Dalit's Samaj in all these places could have translated into more number of seats etc etc but I think much more than that what was vital for the Congress for its own survival was to have gone it alone that it did and it proved that on its own it can hold the force. It had to prove it to itself. It had to prove to its carder and it had to prove to everyone else. And also the larger society and in a way okay of course everybody would agree that victory margin is cylinder and yet the fact remains that in terms of sheer number and against you know the you know heavy odds. What will happen in UP? Will there be a four-way alliance between against the BJP of all the four coming together or is it Congress? I think people in their in their best interest of their survival they should go for Mahagat Bandhan type as it happened in Bihar a couple of years ago. They should go for the same thing because this is a finally a question of their own survival is just the question of survival of the Congress. Let me ask either and you know suppose in the event of a four-way four-party alliance in UP against the BJP. Will it not allow the BJP to go in for what we call the reverse polarization strategy? Secondly is that this argument that the Congress vote share essentially comes from the upper caste. So best would it to leave it aside so that it cuts into the BJP vote base. The moment you bring the Congress into an alliance which is dominated by Dalits and by OBCs and by various other social groups there is a possibility that the number of governments would not come be as enthusiastic towards the alliance as it would have been if the Congress was on its own. No I think the vote pooling logic would dominate over this fear of loss of upper caste votes. The vote pooling logic what is difficult to implement in a coalition is the seat sharing arrangement the agreement and not only how many seats but which seats which particular seats you contest in are you going to go by the past performance are you going to go by where you were number two or and that is going to be very difficult to decide between in UP in the context of two major parties SP and BSP and two minor parties that is Congress and Ajit Singh's party. So while the logic of vote pooling would seem to be indicated to be able to pose an effective challenge to the BJP's dominance the actual seat sharing in terms of number of seats and which seats is going to be very difficult to put together. But what one can predict fairly comfortably is that a sweep 71 seats is not going to be possible for the BJP in any case. There will probably be a net loss of seats how much it depends upon the swing and the effectiveness of the alliance. There have been some projections made on the basis of the vote shares which has come from the three states and the likely scenario based on the current narrative not being altered dramatically by the BJP which means that Mr. Modi is unable to convert it into a single issue election like it was there in the case of 2014 where it was vote out the policy paralyzed UPA and bring somebody who had done a Gujarat you know the Gujarat model to be replicated. It is always very difficult for an incumbent to get votes on the basis of what it has achieved. So in the absence of any national imagination at the moment it is going to be very difficult. Now based on that there appears that at least in the Hindi heartland where the BJP won 196 seats last time and along with its allies about 211 seats there is going to be massive erosion as much as 60 to 70 percent seats are we talking about you know from the Hindi heartland which means that it is going to come down dramatically. So it really opens up the entire ball game you know how are you looking at that what are the various possibilities that we may see post 2019 verdict. Sefer instance the manner in which BJP till recently has been trying to project and consolidate its vote bank is been exactly reversed to what it was trying to do in 2014. Now the advantage Congress and other political parties contesting against BJP is that the BJP has been in power for last four and a half years right. So the narrative has been reversed. Now corruption charges against the Congress in 2014 all those charges has come to the doorstep of the government the present government. But they are getting skeletons from the past also you know you have the Agusta of Westland corruption case once again come alive. You know the live wire and skeletons are two different things. If you look at the live wires of corruption they they reach the corridors of power. What you like to say is that Mr. Modi does not have the issue of corruption. I think I think there has been there has been considerable loss of the charisma considerable loss of the charisma the the number of people attending his meeting the kind of chance that one used to hear certainly certainly the kind of chance that one used to imagine. I mean I I can never imagine a slogan which is reserved for Har Har Mahadev Har Har Mahadev Gargar Mahadev and Har Har Modi Gargar Modi. I don't know how many people are willing to shot that kind of slogan in 2019. Elections like 1984 or 2014 happen once in an epoch. It will not happen there will not be a that way yeah exactly it is also possible that BJP may eventually something may happen very dramatic within the next 100 days and the BJP may do even better than 2014 based on today's narrative it is going to be very difficult. So, you learn one point which came out constantly during that assembly elections and especially once the verdict was coming out that it is not the Congress which won the elections but it was the BJP which lost elections that the Congress is not able to come up with a counter program. It is not enough to say that the BJP did this wrongly BJP did that strongly what are you going to do when you come to power if at all you do. So, does policies and principles play any role in terms of getting votes and in terms of cohesion and alliance? You know principles is something which doesn't come directly into the campaign usually it has not. Policies do in the sense that effects of policies effects of past policies do but I would agree with you that the Congress has won these elections more on the strength of anti-incompensate and rural distress especially these three state elections and not on the strength of its own counter story. It has not managed even the Congress alone doesn't have a strong counter story let alone very loose possible market one than having a counter story. So, that is something which they will have to construct at very short notice given that we are going to have elections announced in about a couple of months from now. So, that counter narrative or counter story has not yet gelled and not yet you know been credibly put forward to the public. Rizwan, a last word from you you know counter strategy a counter program normally we have seen in India alliances are put together post poll. You have always had to the BJP which began in 98 this entire idea of national agenda of governance. The UPA was also formed in 2004 post the elections you know it is only you have alliances but you have a front thereafter. So, regardless of how the verdict goes you know do you see you know in terms of an alternate programs in any way preventing the Congress from becoming you know the epicenter of a new alliance. Two things that I would say in an alliance what happens that not only you transfer your assets to your partner you also transfer your liability and every political party has set off assets and liability. Therefore, I think under the circumstances each one being a strong in their respective position should fight this election on their own strength. With this understanding that as what Srinidharan said you know that you get on the basis of the seats that you have earned. You earn your seats on the basis of your own campaign put it on the table for negotiation and say that well here is an alliance that we form as you are saying post-poll alliance I think that's the best time. If you go for Mahagradbandhan pre-poll alliance then it could be counter product liability and assets you do not know whose liability is going where and whose assets are going where because even if you look at Maya Bhati she is carrying her own sets of liabilities. Mind you the very fact that you know you were we've been talking about silence of the people. I think silence of the people have also been under coercion. Silence of Shri Mulayam Singh Jadav in certain context he pulled out of Mahagradbandhan in Bihar at the last minute everybody knows conditions in which he pulled out. There have been occasions where Maya Bhati maintained a stoic silence where she put him in volume. There are reasons of these silence. So therefore my submission Nilanjan is that keep your assets and liability with you contest on your own strength. You have your own pockets of influence mobilize your maximum resources save the country as you say save the democracy which is the dire need of the hour. Well thank you very much for coming and joining me. I think there is one basic agreement between you know at the end of the discussion between our two guests you know which is that that both parties you know both the Congress as well as the BJP up or rather you know to say it this way you know that we are going to see is basically state level alliances at different parts. Quite a repeat of what happened in 1989 when you had the Jantadal at one hand you know it's aligning with the BJP on one side and the left on the other side and after elections you know though the Congress was still the largest party it was not the Congress which formed the government but something else. So I see very dramatic and interesting times in the next 100 days in India. We will keep talking about this as we come closer to the elections. Thank you very much for joining and watching this program.