 Okay, it is Thursday 21st of October. Hope you're doing well. So in the briefing today I'm going to talk about a couple of things to do with the Fed We had the beige book last night a couple of Fed comments to be aware of and then the US politics and update on the US Reconciliation bill and then we're also going to talk about earnings We had IBM who moved sharply lower over 4% down after market post earnings and Tesla Despite top and bottom line beats actually were down around 1.6% after market last night So US corporate earnings will also talk about and then in the UK a warning from the UK health secretary yesterday about potential for rising COVID cases that could get 100,000 we're about halfway at that figure at this present point in time And then we'll talk about Bitcoin all-time highs yesterday The Valkyrie Bitcoin ECF due to be trading as of Friday the second one This comes now as total assets under the initial pro shares one which was launched this week has now topped 1.1 billion and then we'll look at China ever grand were down No surprise another 14% or so overnight after a failed spin-off of one of their units The property services division and so we'll have a look at that as well and then look at the day ahead So that's what's on the agenda But having a quick look in the flavor of the charts this morning and general market sentiment So overall on on Wall Street We had a slightly positive close up around four tenths of 1% in the likes of the S&P and Dow The Nasdaq though did slip ever so slightly down point zero five percent and Overnight in the Asia pack session. We've kind of just drifted a little bit from those more elevated levels So as stock futures US and European seen lower this morning the Nasdaq down about 50 points S&P 11 and the DAX about 65 as we speak As such T-notes have just been coming up off their lower levels during the apex session Or be it still down three ticks, but above the pivot level in the futures Gold pretty much top right here locked in a short-term period of consolidation really just looking at some of yesterday's price activity So downside 1782 up to the high that was seen in the middle of the apex session at 1790 and a half Currency-wise the dollar is pretty flat overall, and that's largely reflected in the major pairs both euro dollar and cable down just a slight margin of a 15 pips or so and Cable finding some upside resistance as you can see here both at the latter part of the US session overnight in the Asia pack session Which was the hide that we had around midday printed two days ago earlier this week So bit of upside resistance there to watch at 138 33 in the futures market oil had a good run obviously yesterday managed to retest up around on those longer time frame charts that key eighty four dollar handle still providing that cap which We've spoken about in briefings many times before and so just moderating off that initial push that we saw Through the US session which really handed on the baton to Asia which lifted it even further And so we've just had a bit of a pullback now to strategically an area of support around 83 16 Which you can see was this previous high that we had back at the beginning of the week Also the high that we saw in yesterday's session before the break Which acted as a nice kind of linchpin or inflection point for a previous resistance to the breakout pullback For that then push on to 84 and we're trading back at that mark at the moment So not too much in the way of any specific headlines oil related just more price-action Technicals at work at this point in time. So straight to it Let's talk about a couple of headlines then get you up to speed on the beige book is not something that typically really unveils too much in a way of new radical detail that would mean market participants would shift their view on the Fed But nonetheless, it's a good thing to just keep a half an eye on to get that kind of Temperature check on a regional level. So this is generally distributed then amongst the 12 Reserve districts in the US and it gives us an idea about how these kind of micro area economies are performing to get a bit more of a flavor for the National feeling in the US and the US economy expanded at a quote modest to moderate rate While some districts noted gross slowed citing supply constraints and concerns over the Delta variant as According to the beige book and they said price pressures were driven by supply shortages Transportation bottlenecks and labor constraints. So yeah, all interesting But yeah, nothing really new to spin a different direction in terms of expectations are concerned Couple of Fed comments and I'd say it probably fits the same similar conclusion So Fed voter quals said he favours an initial move to slow Monetary stimulus next month. So it's idea of tapering and very much priced in for November announcement And is concerned by a broadening of inflation pressures that could require a policy response So absolutely in fitting with expectations Meanwhile, non-voter and hawk. This isn't actually Mester, this is a talking head by the way Mester said the interest rate hikes are not coming anytime soon as asset purchases wind down We have some time to assess inflation and employment and it's quite interesting because this week Mester typically has had a history of sitting more on the hawkish side of the the policy spectrum And it's the hawks that have come out and been very clear to disassociate rate hikes from from tapering So I think that's quite tactical on behalf of the Fed as we get closer to that that taper trigger being pulled Whereas Carl's as was more the center ground Members of the the FMC tend to be towing the more kind of neutral commentary at this point in time The U.S. Reconciliation bill what's the latest there for white house has told democratic lawmakers in a meeting Yesterday that a proposed hiking corporate taxes is unlikely to make it into the final reconciliation bill According to congressional source familiar with the discussions And so this of course comes as with a few months ago. Biden was looking to push that trump era Slashing of corporate tax rates back up But in order to get this deal over the line, it's looking like that might not ever materialize. So that's the latest on those talks And then quick look just wrapping up the kind of us region. We did have some earnings last night IBM Q3 operating EPS actually missed estimates by a penny Revenue 17.62 billion was also a miss on expectations of 17.83 billion And as such then quite a sharp negative reaction was seen in aftermarket trade in IBM shares As you can see here falling down to around the 135 dollar mark So a loss of four and a quarter percent and then tesla Overall not too bad on the numbers. There are just eps 186 was against the dollar 67 revenues 13.76 billion Perhaps were a little bit soft Their gross margin x environmental credits was also actually up it rose to 28.8 percent from 25.8 percent from the prior quarter Coming of course despite cost pressures from supply chain issues that they've been experiencing as all auto manufacturers have But I guess it's a case of you know, if you were actually to look at the Tesla chart just for a moment. I mean tesla been seeing a really quite aggressive rally specifically this week Just going to have a quick look here to give you some percentages. Just bear with me one second So to give you a bit of context from august to basically this week tesla are up from august 35 percent in this week alone or going back to Uh, yeah the end of last week because we had a bit of a rally on friday last week So from this time last week, we're up around seven percent So the fact that we've come off one and a half on better than expected earnings I think is no great deal or big deal to be honest that the stock has been You know tearing higher so um, although it's a bit contradictory the numbers to the move I think the rationale is is by the stock price performance that we've had going into the earnings report more than anything else So tesla as you can see here just kind of drip fed lower after some initial volatility after the earnings came out last night Okay, quick look at then at the uk We had the health secretary Sajid Jabid put out a warning yesterday that covid cases could hit 100,000 a day and this comes after we're seeing continued uptick In the case rate of covid 19 the uk specifically in the demographic of 12 to 17 year olds Which is this rush at the moment to try and get high school kids vaccinated, but there's been lots of logistical issues Given that start schools are generally understaffed anyway And now they've got this extra burden of trying to roll out this very large-scale program and of course that's running into some complications in terms of the kind of administration of that process and so Case rates are moving higher and we've heard this before even from Sajid Jabid himself But others about this 100k number whether or not that materialized yet to be seen We continue to monitor trajectory of these case rates at the moment and obviously It comes at a point which is slightly concerning of efficacy rates generally waning over time And at the moment the booster rollout Is still happening for the older and more vulnerable And so hasn't yet started to filter down the other key categories Of which there was nine in the original rollout going from kind of generally age order downward He did confirm that england would not yet move to the government's plan b for dealing with pressures on hospitals this winter So obviously seasonally kind of twofold from the covid transmission point of view More congregation inside germany then might Help spread the virus in that sense But then also the fact that normal seasonal flu tends to see hospitals under more strain Anyway from a seasonal perspective as the weather changes But then heaping on top of that the covid situation hence some of these warnings that are being sounded at the moment To give you an idea. We've had just under 50,000 new covid cases yesterday It's the eighth day in a row the infections have been above 40k Death-wise the tolls at 179 To give you an idea about the government's plan b Contingency measures would include the reintroduction and legal requirement to wear face Coverings in some settings and I would say that's somewhat of the political hot potato Because that that's almost been politicized the face mark specifically tied to people's freedom and so on Real tricky one for the government to manage if they were going to go down that route In terms of their political Perception and popularity Then there's the potential introduction of covid vaccine passports and the possible return of the work from home command So at the moment, yeah, this hasn't really impacted sterling I would say but It's something to continue to monitor Because if we start to do the whole work from home thing Then we need to start recalibrating the kind of mobility Impact that that would have then consequently on economic activity As we've seen before and obviously at the moment We're still trying to calculate whether or not the bank of england can pull the trigger on Hiking rates and if you listen to gs and credit suites and other banks as soon as november As i've said before, you know for these reasons amongst others is why I see that being an unlikely event, but we shall see bitcoin The valory or valkyrie bitcoin strategy fund will begin trading on the naztac exchange on friday The fund is going to follow of course the successful launch of the pro shares bitcoin strategy etf for bito the ticker symbol Which has accumulated more more than 1.1 billion in assets in just two days of trading And that continues to see bitcoin Plug away on the upside and printed fresh all-time highs at 67 k Yesterday has come off a little bit. The futures market was trading up as high as 67 and a half thousand yesterday And we're trading around 64 seven at the moment And then china just finally ever grand I don't think necessarily this is this now causes the same effect that it would have done 10 8 10 weeks ago This headline back then would have kind of created a negative spiral of sentiment Translating into chinese negative clothes and and a and a general softer footing for the european open But that ship has sailed now I think people have kind of a climatized to the ever grand situation So even though they were down as much as 14 percent overnight after the company resumed Trading after a two-day halt last night after the chinese widow state developer disclosed a plan to sell its property services division Had essentially collapsed and so just more issues there As debt repayment deadlines continue to loom for the property developer and how that will be solved But um, I guess at the moment the continued commitment from the chinese central bank It looks like to do what is necessary for the time being with the fact that the market seems to Have now be a little bit more educated to less spooked by this situation and fears of contagion certainly have been if not dissipated Eliminated if not dissipated to a degree where it's not really such a big issue at this point in time albeit still something to monitor And looking at the candor for the day ahead pretty quiet for the uk european morning Nothing really of note for me to mention until we get into the us afternoon We've got the weekly us jobless claims alongside the fiddy-fed business index that will come at 130 You got us existing home sales alongside the european consumer confidence flash reading for october at 3 p.m Fed speaker walla a voter speaking at virtual event at 2 p.m. This afternoon london time supply coming out of spain and france And then you've got a 257 year note and two-year floating rate note announcement from the us treasury at 4 Alongside a 19 billion five-year tips auction earnings The kind of main ones to look out for today You've got AT&T and intel as well as american airlines southwest airlines In the u.s. And then in europe you got the lights of barclays unilever vvendi l'oreal Probably some of the bigger market cap names If you're looking at single stock news flow. All right, that is it. I'll let you get on with the date Hopefully that was useful any questions at all. Feel free to drop me a comment. Happy to help Otherwise, I will see you guys same time tomorrow. Thanks very much