 The following is a presentation of TFNN, the Tiger technician hour with your host Basil Chapman call now toll-free at 1-877-927-6648. Hi folks Basil Chapman here on this very sudden stormy day you can hear the thunder and lightning it's a little hamlet there right that double double troubles what we're looking at is the let me just get rid of this crude oil price here we'll come back to it in a moment let's go through this steadily the thousand three hundred and twenty three at thirty five thousand five hundred and forty three and this is a 10-06 a.m. on a on a Tuesday the 28th of September you see this monthly chart I'm pretty sure we're making a peak D in the monthly chart and just bumping up against the Chapman wave inside track repellent zone GSTAS C in the weekly chart this is going to be a really important couple of days coming up okay let's just go through this very very slowly the nine-period moving average is sharply under the 14-period moving average in the daily chart the weekly chart for the first time is starting to see the green nine-period moving average start to get very very close to that black line that's the 14-period exponential moving average in the weekly chart MACD's been in the in a kind of a independent cell mode all the way since May we're looking at the stochastic down at 60% in the weekly chart that's not good we're looking at the on-balance volume kind of rallying a little bit but not that great so the technicals in the Dow even though the Dow was the strongest in this big rally from thirty three thousand six hundred and thirteen after dropping from all time thirty five thousand six thirty one high of August the 18th that bounce all the way to the high of one thirty five thousand about fifty yesterday all of a sudden what we're looking at is the technicals in the daily chart have still been in a cell mode parameter and what's really important about this is that that arch formation in the chapwave methodology we always look for some kind of a failure after a sharp pullback that forms a peak A or a peak B in this pattern we call the dreaded H straight line down make it red because as it arches over if it takes out that left side low significantly you can make it yet look at that there's the dreaded H right there call it a dreaded H because once it takes out that left side low it's vulnerable to a deeper slide and that's exactly what happened there on the thirty four thousand six ninety support that was taken out boom thirty three six one three and the next thing we know is that this rally turns out to be coincident to just move this away right here a technique that I developed over the years is it's right here I'm hoping this is it let's just give it a try right here called chapwave dark news cloud cover and I use the day in this particular instance I've got the dowel and I'll show you this it goes let me just squeeze this close there we go all right you can see how often this happened you've got the rectangle formation that develops and the price just goes in this H pattern and it makes a successful test and it has a sharp rally age pattern successful test that was back in 2020 then and then a whole bunch of small ones small ones small ones small ones that we had a much larger one which had the high of thirty five thousand and ninety one I think yep thirty five thousand and ninety one back in the 10th of May look how long that lasted with a successful H pattern runs up again makes a very small one right there with the load that was made around about the 18th or 19th of July balances and now all of a sudden let me expand this and this is one of the techniques I developed a long time ago where I talk I talk about bad news the market there's bad news every single day it's how the dowel or the general market takes that news because if it's just news that it washes off like water on a duck's back and just means nothing then the market the general trend of a market over decades and over a hundred or more years is that unless there's very serious news that impacts the market the market generally wants like a cork in water it generally wants to come up to the surface and move higher that's the the market is an optimistic it's in an optimistic framework and it just gets beaten down by bad news well every once in a while it ignores the bad news but every once in a while it takes the bad news says oh my goodness and now all of a sudden you've got yields we're going to get this to that right now you see we've broken below the rectangle formation we've formed yet another within the the dark news cloud cover the market is taking news right now very seriously what is that news first of all you can see um in the general let me just finish this up here what is the general news well the s&p is oh i didn't mean to do that now i can't remember if i did this in this particular segment or in the update but i'll do it again the s&p right now is trading at down 62 at 4380 what happened here is a gap down had a really nice rally is a technique that i call this let me just draw this in here it's called the falling ax where the price rises and rises and rises then it starts to turn down makes lower highs and lower lows lower highs and much lower lows then all of a sudden it has a rally well if that ready is very successful this this downtrend the upper downtrend line where i put in a little tiny little narrow channel and i call it the chaplain wave inside track repellent zone in this case it's the chaplain wave inside track propellent zone if it manages to close sharply above that downtrend line it can go one-to-one to the left side high very quickly in the same number of bars same angle same everything but in this case it failed so we've got this repellent zone acting very strongly like a magnet turned around a silver attracting it's it's detracting pushing away and this is very sharp and what's happening is that we were potentially making the pattern i was talking about in the towel just a moment ago the dreaded H pattern it might be an inverted V but in this particular pattern most of the time it fails at a peak A or a peak B i call it a gray A or gray B because the magnet is stochastic usually don't confirm and that's exactly what we got here i'll change the color it should be gray i didn't have time to change it there it is gray okay so this could become an A minus so far this is very bad and what have we got we've got a bunch of things going on for the first time we've got the QQQs failing to lead all-time high 382.78 on the 7th of july of september bam everything comes down it gaps down rallies up and it's got that peak end this is into this particular candle right here it says if there's a trade within it's not quite a chapter of roman candle but if there's a trade below 363 that holds for 60 to 90 minutes in this particular daily chart you go to a shorter time frame there's a really good chance that at some point very soon you're going to test the low that was made the most recent low in the H the dreaded H formation and that's at 360.93 we're at 362.71 she mentioned just for clarification subscribers are we have a small short position in the QQQ it's actually not the QQQ it's three times the QQQs so here it is and peak is probably peak in the weekly chart the G-C in the monthly just real quickly i'll do the IWM because when i come back i want to talk about bonds i want to talk about gold and gold color and the IWM Russell because about three not i'll be right back i'll be right back now let's escape it and i hope i can deal with them soon are you looking for a way to consistently add winning trades to your portfolio? 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opens until the closing bell sounds Tiger TV has eight different shows with expert hosts to help you make the right moves with your money watch online at TFNN.com or on TFNN's YouTube channel and become the investor you were born to be TFNN educating investors all now toll free at 1-877-927-6648 internationally at 727-873-7618 hello so the template we're always looking for four higher peaks that gives us that peak D we're going to see that property in the monthly chart of the Dow that's where other things can happen look at this peak D in the two-minute chart back to about 4405 in the E-mini S&P E-mini where are we now 4361 this is this is serious stuff we're looking at also is within the context of here we go just to finish up with the markets I was mentioning in the update to 10 a.m update that the MDY that's the S&P mid cap to positive receipts tone off and people don't seem to talk about it but it's really been a very important piece of the the the whole smorgasbord of the different indices and these are the mid caps and it makes a high if I can get it it was in the 507.58 or something like that may as well give you the exact figure 507.63 back in the week of the 30th of April and lo and behold remember this is this is the fascination that for some of us who have been the markets for not years but decades the fascination is how did these things how does the market know to do this it goes within 50 cents this is a huge S&P mid cap deposited receipts trading in the 500s it pulls back from the 500 whatever I say 507s down to the 465 was it 464.30 level in July rallies all the way back in a shorter timeframe and this is making a new high by what was it 36 cents or something like that unbelievable how that happens it's the same as when I talk about trend lines I talk about these trend lines and I say how does the market know that you can draw a straight line and it goes to exactly that line you can understand how horizontal people remember the number 200 so you come back you say watch out for the 200 but you don't remember 205, 210, sorry 210 and 215 increments like that on a diagonal so it's just amazing how that works in the market I have a theory about it but we're not going to go into that right now this can make in September a peak c1 c2 why do I say that because if you look at the IWM monthly chart a high WM monthly chart you've got already a peak c1 c2 where it's also by one point less than a point missed a double top high how does the market do how does it know to go in a rectangle that's a little different rectangle goes up to the 234 35 level down to the 210 level 208 level back up again and now we'll see what happens where we were waiting to see whether the IWM had the push forward that was necessary to show some leadership again and that seems to be fading oh okay now we get to the nitty-gritties crude oil I'm suspecting we are just about to make a very short term very short term top in crude oil leg E in the daily chart of the crude oil continuous contract D-B in the weekly chart and leg D in the monthly chart why do I say that well there are a couple of reasons but if you go look at this OIH there's your leg D big spike to the upside starting to reverse makes a high today of 209.34 trading right now 202.89 still up $1.90 but the pattern said from the on balance volume that it was getting a little bit a little toppy if you look at a number of stocks within the category of I'm not saying to short not at all this is this is the category that you're going to be watching so closely because crude oil has been moving if you're looking at something like a chevron cvx look at this oh I didn't update it let's go to x on mobile x on mobile this is your leg E screams to the upside now this is one that I've had trouble with for subscribers we had got into it quite a while ago as a dividend stock it looked like it was doing well and then I said no I'm making a tight stop I'm not prepared to give up the dividend at any point because there's a capital loss if we were neat we needed to sell at any point so we got out of it and it plummeted from the 61 down to the 52 area that's a big move in a dividend stock all of a sudden it's back to 59 it's tough choosing dividend stocks unless you're prepared to stay for the long term and you go through these whoopee I I just can't do that right now I think in fact it is it is both chevron axon mobile I think they're in play for 2020 because this crude oil just we'll see what happens yet but that is a spectacular move in crude oil going all the way from from 62 under 62 from 61 back in August in August just August and then it spikes today to 76 that's a big move and look at this v shape pattern in the weekly chart manky hasn't yet crossed in the weekly hasn't crossed positive when it does that's still going to add fuel to the fire and the monthly chart leg d with good technicals I'm watching this closely yeah we don't have you know I've spoken about it I don't know how many times we've seen some of these very low price screamer oil service stocks really I mean yeah there's one that just constantly has been showing up on our list let me see erf is that the one erf and a flex these are energy plays look at this big move up you've had um tel came back onto the list again look at that move up leg af sharp move to break to a new recovery hide 425 pulls back is now down a 16 cents and 394 I think on a short-term basis we are getting a little overbought here let's look at the dollar because the dollar and oil sometimes for the two to go together in historically that doesn't usually happen very often dollar pulls back oil moves up but in this particular case you've got the two moving together the dollar we're still long for subscribed to my opening call we're still long the dollar 1937 right now 38 cents leg e gotta watch this very closely so let's go to gold gold is pulling back very sharp we trough leg after the downside making the arch formation the dreaded age in the weekly chart monthly chart same sort of thing when money comes out the general market very often it also takes money from gold from the gold source people just okay I'm going to use some of that my profits or whatever they are to get out but in this case gold has been pulling back for a little while the whole of September so it's gone from the just under 1840 down to today's a low of 1727 that's that's quite a big move especially for gold looking at silver silver is down just a little bit down 21 cents at 2348 it's been holding the left side low in the dreaded age pattern so isn't it funny I keep talking about how silver and gold have this in the trend they tend to follow on a shorter trend they can have different chart patterns in their weekly charts they have very different patterns so I'm looking at this and thinking silver in the monthly chart is showing that it's kind of weak the gold on a monthly basis is showing that it is weak but holding above the left side low and it's had a lot of 1700 support so we're going to be watching that 1700 level is this time where gold gets a little bit of a bounce well let's go to high grade copper another one of the part of the commodity look we're looking at down 0.03 at 4.25 holding quite nicely but in the lower range and I always like to put it together with wood the ice system for GTF well lo and behold this didn't show up yep it's down 82 cents also with a peak A could be an arch failure after the peak D remember in Chapman wave methodology these can be very important look at the D at this particular D just over 92 where it plunged in September down to the 200 degree moving average look at the high that was made in May of 98.98 wood WOD trading 86.69 the average of just a side risk consolidation in the lower range I'll be back in a moment down to 0.235 acceleration yes are you having fun trading the markets but having trouble finding like-minded individuals to discuss your trading and investment 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e many look at this return bank went under the 200 p moving average and right here it's attempted to find some kind of support down 71 at 43.62 everything will change if for this afternoon whatever reason i get what the reason is if there is some kind of a rally that takes you towards the 43 86 to the 43 90 level that'll say you know what there's something some kind of news event is going to try and ameliorate some of the the thrashing that's going on right now but most importantly what we're looking at is if there is another whoosh to the downside i just think that a lot of people are going to say you know what a good stock bad stock i'm just going to take a little bit of my profits so i'm going to take a little bit of a loss and get out right now i'd rather be sitting on the side if things are going to get much worse a question in the den was do fang do fang basil is it a true oil stock well it's in the energy sector i just i can't remember or fan oh i meant to look at that earlier i'm not going to take too much time right now but it's energy stash c down $1.22 at 94.26 this is a stock that was making testing the 200 period exponential moving average back in august when it went under the 273 went down to the 65s now it is in the 90s i mean that is that is really quite a gain for you know this is and this is one i did before chapter we've overlapping wave goes to leg d went to d and even went to an e back in july so this monthly chart looks very good and as i'm talking i'm going to just do this if you don't mind i'm just going to put a diamond back diamond back energy does what and it's an independent oil natural gas i used to have that written in here natural gas independent or a natural gas company which engages in the acquisition development exploration exploitation what a word to use the exploitation you're exploiting oh my goodness of unconventional onshore oil and natural gas reserves operates through the upstream and midstream services segment yeah i think this is in play and it's going to retest the high that was made in the 100 102 area back in july first week i think it was of july so i tried to get yes s and p says i tried to get the den to buy fang when i was buying yep i remember that boys and sisters try harder next time no i think you mentioned a number of times s and p so um xec had a question about that xcc is what this is uh c jamaris jamarix energy same sort of thing little dodgy candle probably forming right here is in peak a peak b peak c this is leg d in the daily chart and monthly chart is a b c d e leg e huge candle usually what happens after you scan like this you get a consolidation candle so i think we're real close to the oil just at least having some kind of a consolidation um so now i have to go back to a couple of things uh yes i agree a lot of put buying um no three stocks breaking out now that's an old one there's a big surprise coming paul i i agree because this is the first time we've had follow-through in the vix index look here it is since that high was made on the 28th at 28.79 back on the 19th i think it was of september and pulled back very sharply to uh under 18 and now we're trading at 23 58 i suspect the candle this weekly candle is going to be a pretty green candle coming to the friday close unless something spectacular happens with the market appreciating politically what what what's going on whatever is happening it's expedience that counts um debt default i just don't think there'll be at this particular default they better not be a default um because things always get paid but it creates such paperwork have havoc and and such insecurity for the general market um that that's not the way to go all right so let's get out of this because we can't make these decisions this is a political framework and we have to wait for that um yes so the question was is that is the is the weakness in the um high-grade copper and international thing yeah usually we consider for me the idea i shares timber and forestry etf wood wod and high-grade copper always is telling me about the economies around the world now i can go back to the fxi is fxi going to start to show some strength here as the let's say the european markets american and european markets tank i don't know there's a lot going on in china and they've made some big decisions lately that are not we can call them political decisions for them it is just macro decisions you know the china has a long term people always talk about the long term long term long term outlook in china it's that's absolutely true but they are also very cognizant now that they've become a capitalist country whether they like it or not they have to be aware of all the nuances all the ex exigence um aspects that could just suddenly blow blow things up on the shorter term so i suspect that the fxi is in a struggle i don't see it's showing leadership right yeah we've become out of this maybe it does but not right now let's look at the someone said you look at the hgx index that you always look at on the weekend yes this is the Philadelphia housing sector index making the dreaded age retesting again the 200 period moving average in the daily child little mini age pattern the previous one failed there's this big dreaded age pattern with the horrible failure did make a leg g in the weekly child way back in the beginning of math it was the week of may the first let's see what that is that is yep no the 14th the week of the 14th of may at 538.36 trading now at 455 down seven and a half this is going to be very interesting i do have a peak b in the week in the weekly and the monthly chart g is in the weekly chart with an h pattern if it closes in october any any day let alone any week but any day that it closes under 442 it's at 455 right now that's far away but if it does that this is going to be a much deeper it won't be a correction i think we're in for something a lot deeper in the meantime all we can say is don't get panicked yes we down 400 but wait a minute wouldn't be up look at this it wasn't the Dow up look at these huge candles on the upside so this is just one day after recovery high hitting the resistance level and the Dow remember the Dow has a mix that is favorable what is what is happening to Boeing what was the question yeah could you look at the six the goals like Boeing and Caterpillar so Boeing is down 380 220.38 had a very nice move up to that leg b high and the high 220s and now it's a 220 well it was 228 and a half wasn't it i can't remember right now i remember following it yesterday uh 228.60 and now we're down to 220 not a big deal but it but Boeing could be starting to get ready in the next month or two we're finally we might see some some progress and can you believe after that severe crash and Boeing was trading 446.01 was a high in March of 2009 then there was this incredible candle i think this was not March of 2020 no it was before March of 2020 it takes a clip all the way down to under 100 drops from 446 to under 100 trading now to 220 it's actually holding pretty well with thinking about everything that's going on i'll be back in a moment how's it chaplain tiger fish is our thousand 344 has it been down 80 are you in the market for buying or selling real estate in the bay area including the surrounding st petersburg tampa and clearwater markets tiger real estate LLC is a firm that has extensive experience in the tampa bay area whether you're looking to sell your current property for maximum value or you're in the market for a second home or investment property tiger realty has the experience across all areas of real estate in the tampa bay area to help buyers and sellers make the most informed decisions across all price levels from the price you should be paying per square foot in certain up and coming areas to the type of cash flow investment properties are capable of creating tiger real estate can help you make the best decision when it comes to all areas of 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forget you can listen to tfnn live on your mobile device 24 hours per day go to tfnn.com then hit watch tiger tv that's tfnn.com then hit watch tiger tv hi folks we're back so you can see this little rally attempt yeah there it is peak a b peak c and leg d made a peak d still trying to rally a little this is a counter trend balance we've got right here very important you've got to have these otherwise should be just terrible we're at 43 70s down 62 okay now let's just go back to our story here so questions have come in so nvidia uh nvidia dreaded h uh that says watching for it to hold or break support yep so uh we're watching this closely because this is in the semiconductors and this is one of the leaders in semiconductor nvidia nvda to 8.59 down 8 right now it ran right up to the chapwave inside track repellent zone pulls back in peak a um this becomes an a minus if it starts to go into the two or five area i'm watching these really close i think isn't it today that uh micron has its earnings report micron 73 45 down a dollar 73 doesn't look like it could do anything today looks in fact like a failure pattern but you never know earnings come out oh could pop eight points who knows 73 41 right now down a dollar 77 i'm just watching this closely because the smh's there's always our clue smh's are made an h pattern not yet a dreaded h but it's it's down eight at 263.38 it ran up to 276.69 all-time high to peak in the chapwave made the arch formation a leg f probably a peak f in the weekly chart we won't know for a little bit and i'm watching this because a new all-time high in the weekly in the monthly chart if the semis which always leave the market up and down and up and down um if they start to tank and in the first week of october that's next week if you start to see the semi semis close any day under 258 that is really very negative action because that's below the 14 period moving average in the weekly chart it hasn't done that it hasn't closed under that it's been under it many times but since early may off that low in may that was where it went under the 14 period moving average and then the next week it was a green candle but did close again under and that was it it's been under before but it's very quickly turned up so that's going to be a big deal and anytime if it if it goes to the 270 wow if it goes to 274 by by next week that is very good very strong action i'm trying to be as objective as possible here we for subscribers to an opening call we've raised a lot of cash we have positions uh we we we um had spectacular moves in some of our positions i mean let me just show you here this a agilent look at the sharp move from the all-time i have 179 57 we're along from a 70 taking a quite a few small positions off celebs call position i just want to hold it there's nothing to do i should probably said hey if you're interested let's go to the put side i just decided after these two dreaded age patterns that we'll we'll just hold it a peak f in the monthly look at tmo this is an incredible company also some official dynamics down 21 today at 573 we're along from 484 back in june of this year took a small took small pieces off all the way to the last one which was at um up 103 points up 21 percent at 616.93 on the 23rd of of september we got out um we got out at what was it 587 we're trading at 573 right now it's only a leg c in the in the weekly chart but that monthly chart e slash p i'm watching this very closely i could pull back very sharply and it has already 570 570 low today after 616 40 points yeah that's a that's a pretty darn big move and with the three two doji candles at the top i'm just watching these things very closely so this has been a time to take profits try to get into positions we have one position which is holding okay did a real nice move yesterday giving back something i think it's going to be vulnerable but so far it's good and as i say we are short the s the um cuckoo with a small position in the s cuckoo which is three times short um and that's moved from our 720s entry to 837 right now hey the day's young anything can happen so i say the next question is could you just quick to go through your fang stocks this is f a a n g not fang diamond back uh this is f we're doing amazon let's do amazon first amazon down a little bit down 75 at 330 2030 this is the dreaded age pattern we're looking at made a peak be a big a much larger one all time high way back at 3773 on the 13th of July did the age pattern one to one to the downside continued lower huge one from the 3175 rally to the 35 uh 50s and now we're looking at this is a small one this is this is a problem because when you see the the leadership start to falter and that's what's happening look at apple a a p l apple is trading down 2. let me just get this going here apple is down 2.28 to 143.10 also pattern that looks like the dreaded age 157 26 all time high on the 7th of july big pullback uh we go down to the 141 level bounce to the 147s and now here you are at 143 peak e in the weekly chart this is actually i have to wait for friday but i'm pretty sure i'm going to put it down over here for a cell signal in the weekly chart like f in the monthly let's go to uh whatever we want to air facebook facebook same thing making it almost making the dreaded age taking out the left side low again um at down 11 that's 341 let's look at uh goog googie goog is trading down broken the left side low down 97 at 2732 peak d doji high well well this is serious stuff folks it's the first time that you've had leadership now we're going to see whether this is rotational leadership as some sectors that have been really beaten down for some time have had a longer uh extension move to the upside let's look at xop which is the um there we go a new recovery i not an all-time high it's just making a leg d in the monthly chart uh but it had a peak e high that was made right here in the month in the week in the week of the 9th of july at 97.23 today's high is 90 is 100.43 is this a new leg e whoops i can't put it down arrow like that when uh the mag d didn't close negative and the 90s above the 40s so that d with a plus sign this is leg e and that's the reason why i'm saying i think we just on a very short term basis you've got to be a little careful here because we could see crude oil starting to pull back and all these energy stuff related stuff now is this look because the starting point in xop this is the s and p ordering and gas exploration when it started that moved back in october november of last of 2020 the low was at 39 38.39 october the week of october the 30th 2020 so that was your low and then you made a peak e pullback well if you don't take out that low this can be a continuation pattern so this could be either the gf slash b or a brand new b but the chart itself looks very much like this is just a brand new leg b the 90 is just so positive the cast is running it has room to go so all i can say is starting a leg d in the monthly chart this is really good action so now i mean just as we're about to break because we've got one more segment to go questions in the den ddd this is 3d systems big digestive phase i think that these are the stocks that will come back like the ddd 3d systems uh gt which is the uh this is the tire company group retire uh trading down 50 cents this is actually actually acted quite well i'll be back sharpening your skills as an investor is like getting better at playing a musical instrument you have to practice sure but you also need excellent instruction from experts at tfnn you'll get advice and guidance from the authority and technical market analysis and it's not just dry tedious text either tfnn airs live financial content streamed live on tfnn.com and tfnn's youtube channel with tiger tv live every market day from 8 30 a.m to 4 p.m eastern for free each host is an experienced trader and gives their take on the market while taking calls and questions 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banner on the front page of TFNN.com Hi folks so let's just do this uh as we're about to wrap up a great programming coming up you know we start off the day at nine with Tommy Jr just really a great introduction to the the more the what we're looking at during the day for the market all these different fundamental and technical aspects he looks at and then of course we've got 10 o'clock my show we've got think or swim I think from Monday I think Larry's going to be doing the 11 o'clock timeframe and then we've you know we've got program we've got Steve Rose, Dave White, Tommy Bryant, I'll be back with Tommy a little later today so let's just make this as clear as possible there's uncertainty in the market we've only given back in the doubt just a little bit from the gains that were made starting off just a couple of days ago so at down 381 if the doubt starts I'd say 34,400 was key to me if there's a close under 34,400 we have to consider there's a pattern the other I call the dreaded H lowercase H and just be real careful by a Thursday afternoon if there's no ready about 34,900 that's a real problem let's go to the S and I don't have to go to this is this is comparable to everything else what we really want to look at here is the volatility index so if the volatility index today is at 2334 up 4.54 up 24 percent that's a huge gain if it holds if there's no counter trend rally with the VIX index starting to slide under 22 but in fact by 130 into 230 the market is holding steadily very negative and then all of a sudden the stars accelerate after three o'clock watch the VIX because of the VIX rallies that is the the market accelerates lower the VIX accelerates above 20 today's high is 2388 if you see the VIX above 24 30 after three o'clock I'd say you've got to be careful you've got to be careful overnight and it could be a real happy day tomorrow please just go one step at a time the day's not easy day is young watch closely and also be prepared if you haven't taken off some something you want have some cash rig make some beautiful buys coming up then if have a wonderful day I'll be back check out more of the Dorma daily news there