 So gang, let's take a look at this data. And as I mentioned before, we did two videos before looking at the data. Initially, this video here, which was ASMR Math livestream we had and the conversation came up about exponential growth. So what we ended up doing was taking a look at whatever data we had regarding COVID-19 coronavirus of the infection rate. And we talked about what exponential growth could look like, what a doubling period was, right? And then when more data was available, we did a live stream on Twitch where we did exactly what we were about to do. We, I created a table and put some graphs together and we took a look at those, that data set, right? And it was just for 17 days worth of data. So we did a live stream and then I took the segment where we looked at the data and cut that out and sort of highlighted some stuff through my video editor and uploaded that as a separate video on its own, right? So we have three streams out there regarding COVID-19 coronavirus, okay? And we are live streaming this as well. So the chat is going and I'll keep my eyes on the chat, make sure we don't get any troll action happening but I'll let people have the conversation. And I'm just gonna run through the data here for you guys, right? And what we have here, what I compiled together, if you've watched the previous videos or if you plan on watching it, you'll notice that I add a few more columns in here. There's three other columns that I wanted to add but because the data is sparse, it's not reliable and we don't have enough of it, I decided not to include that data and those three columns were related to information that I was trying to get regarding the virus, what we have outside of China, right? Because we can't really rely on the data coming out of China anymore, right? So what we have here, we got the date. So we're going, the data that I've compiled here is going from January 20th to February 29th, okay? So we're looking at 41 days worth of data which starting to give us a nice feel of what might be happening, right? The data, the noise is starting to disappear and we're sort of, we're getting the trends. We had the trends before but we can rely more on the data because there is more of it, right? The next column, the third column is the total confirmed worldwide, okay? The fourth column is confirmed in mainland China and we'll talk about this and as soon as we look at the percent growth per day you'll get a feel for why this data is most likely not accurate, right? Because if you look down, so we have mainland China and then we have data for the number of infected, confirmed outside of China, including Hong Kong, right? So that's the fifth column in. Again, I should have put the numbers up top but there's only so much room I could play with here, right? So we have other including Hong Kong and that column is the rate of infections outside of China, okay? And to get a feel for how that data is playing out what I created was three more columns, right? So the first three columns of data is the number of confirmed cases. The next three columns is the percent growth per day for each of the columns, okay? And the background if you can hear that our neighbors are playing their musicians they recently moved in and they're playing mandolin. The link, the link, the link, right? So we're getting that at times. It's sort of soothing to a certain degree. So I hope you guys enjoy it if you can hear it. So one, two, three, four, five, the sixth column is the percent growth per day for the total number of confirmed, right? And if you start off from January 21st and if you go all the way to February 13th, 14th you'll notice that it was, you know, we started off it was fairly noisy, things were jumping all over the place and then it was stabilizing around 20% into the teens and then on February 13th it kicked up to 33%, right? The number of confirmed cases that's because China changed their method of confirming cases and whatnot, right? So they changed their criteria and the way they were presenting the data and taking in the data, right? And then after that what you see is the China, the infection rate in China just dropping down to basically 1% per day. This area is very important to look at, right? Because most of the cases are out of China that's really affecting the total confirmed cases outside of China, okay? And when we look at the graphs you will get a feel for it, right? I just wanna run you through the table right now. The reason that we know these numbers are most likely flawed or not accurate is because the percent increase, okay? Per day outside of China is huge. Percent confirmed outside of China starting as of basically when China changed the way they were reporting the numbers, collecting the data, right? Went into the teens, 11%, 15%, 14%, 15%, 12%, 10%, 9%, 17%. And now we're going into the 20s, the high 20s and into the 30%. We even actually hit 30% increase in the number of confirmed cases outside of China in a day, right? That's huge. Keep your eyes on that. This is telling us that basically unless, unless in China the virus has burnt itself out and the number of infected is completely collapsed that could be either because China is doing a great job containing people and they're treating everyone, which most people agree that's not the case. It could be because the virus has mutated and it's not as severe anymore and it's actually inoculating people. I don't know the correct terminology. I'm not a biologist, I'm a geophysicist, right? I just like the data. So maybe the virus has mutated so it's not infecting anymore. The R not value is completely dropped or the most likely case, the data coming out of China is not accurate, right? We'll find out soon enough. The next column, after the 3% growth, total China and outside of China, we have the total number of confirmed deaths, okay? And then we have the total number recovered. The next three columns are the fatality rate, right? And one thing that we're seeing right now if you look at this column, the fatality rate, basically a percent of people that are dying, people were coding 2%, right? And it's sitting at from January 31st all the way to basically again, February where China changed the way they were reporting numbers mid-February, it was sitting around 2, 2.5%, right? But because China's numbers are most likely not accurate, the number of infected is not rising the way it should because of exponential growth. And because the number of death outside of China is growing, we're seeing the mortality rate kick up to 3.5% now, okay? Relative to the total number of confirmed if we're going by the official numbers. So again, this mortality rate might be real if we believe that the number affected that are being reported are accurate or the mortality rate is kicking up because there's people dying outside of China but we're not seeing the number infected rise because the data coming out of China is not accurate. So that's kicking up the percent, the mortality rate, right? You can take it either way, okay? And the last two columns is the percent total recovered which is from the confirmed cases how many, what percent have recovered which we're sitting in around 40, early 40%s, okay? So that's the table, I just wanted to run you through that. And what we're seeing in the last column and when we see the graphs you'll get a feel for how these look, the visual of it, right? And the last column is death versus recovered as a percentage. So initially the number of recovered wasn't very many because people, it was taking people a month to recover from this thing, right? And people were dying. So there was actually more deaths than recovered but this last column is showing positive signs because what we're seeing is the number of recovered is increasing and so the number of relative death to recovered is decreasing, right? Which is a good thing, which is a good thing, okay? Now I know there's a conversation going on, I wasn't keeping my eyes on the chat, Spider-Man, how are you doing? I'll come back to the chat after we go through the charts because I do wanna have this segment, have this segment, really great table, thanks Zart. There's three more columns I wanted to add but couldn't do it, right? But what I wanna do is make sure we're able to cut this little segment out of the live stream and upload it independently, right? So let's take a look at the graphs, okay? So the first graph we're gonna look at is the total confirmed cases, right? So this is the graph of the total confirmed cases, okay? And I'm titling these graphs basically analyzing the coronavirus COVID-19 data from January 20th to February 29th, okay? 2020. And that basically encompasses 41 days worth of data, right? Now if you take a look at this, on February 13th, 14th, which is basically day, if we bring out the table again, let me bring out the table again. So we'll go by the second column. The X axis is our second column, it's the number of days that we're looking at the data, right? And if you look at day 25, that's when China changed the way they were reporting the numbers and collecting the data, right? So on day 25, the day before there were 1% growth per day which everybody agree, couldn't have been the case, right? And then on day 25 is 33%. That's what we're seeing here with the big kick up because a lot of new cases were confirmed, right? The jump was, I believe like 15,000 new cases. We can take a look at the table to figure out what the number was. If you look at 25, it went from 45,000 confirmed cases for total to 60,000 or basically 45,000, 60,000 inside China. So 15,000 new cases were added. That's why we're seeing this big jump happening at day 25, right? Now, if you look at this graph, initially you see the note is fairly flat in the first few days and then it's starting to go exponential, exponential. And then we see the graph sort of taper off, start flattening out. That's mostly because the data was not being collected in an accurate way coming out of China because it was mainly Chinese infections that were running the data, right? And then all of a sudden we get 15,000 new cases. And if you continue to look at the data, it looks flat, looks flat, looks flat. And towards the end in the 39, 40 and 41, we're starting to see a pickup again, right? We're starting to see that pickup again. Keep that in mind. Okay, here's the number of confirmed inside China. So this is total confirmed, right? This is the number of confirmed in mainland China, right? Again, we see the same thing going exponential, flattens out and then 15,000 pop up, right? And then starts going up and it's flattening out, right? Flat. So this is linear towards the end in day 40, 41. And I'm gonna bring up the total again. You're seeing a little kick up for the total confirmed in day 40, 41, right? Here's why we're seeing the kick up because the total confirmed includes the number of cases outside of China, right? So total confirmed, mainland China, outside of China. We're going full on exponential with the number of confirmed cases outside of China. And this going exponential in the last three, four days of the number of confirmed cases outside of China is giving the kick that we're seeing in the total confirmed cases, okay? That's the kick that we're seeing up there, okay? Now, if this thing's growing at the rate that we're seeing in the table outside of China, which is basically anywhere between 20 to 30% per day, that's been the case for the last week or so. If we bring up the table, let me bring up the table here. If you bring up the table and if you look at which column? One, two, three, four, five, six, seven, eight. If you look at the eighth column, which is percent growth per day other, meaning outside of China, in the last from day 33 to day 41, right? From basically February 21st, 22nd to February 29th, right? Growth per day outside of China is anywhere between 17 to 30% per day. That's a lot. That's a lot. And that's what we're seeing here. Serious kick up, okay? This is the main reason I mentioned a few times that most likely the data coming out of China is not accurate. I don't think any scientists, anyone looking at the data would say other than they found a cure, they got some kind of vaccine that they're giving millions or tens of millions of people or the virus is mutated and it's not infecting anyone and everyone miraculously is getting better, right? Well, not getting better because the number of recovered is still following a normal trend, right? Still going exponential growth, right? But there isn't huge pop-ups, right? So keep this in mind. The best data right now that we can start analyzing is the numbers coming out of countries outside of China, okay? The next table or next graph we're gonna look at is the growth per day total, okay? So the growth per day globally because it's influenced heavily with China has dropped down to one or 2% per day, right? If we look at the table again, let me bring up the table. So this is the one, two, three, four, five, the sixth column. So we're about to look at the sixth, seven, and eighth columns, right? And if you look at the sixth and seventh column from basically February 15th, day 27th to February 29th, day 41, we're sitting anywhere from 3% to 0% growth in China per day, which isn't very accurate. However, towards the end, we're seeing a little kick up again in the total percent growth per day because outside of China is growing 20, 25% per day, right? So all of a sudden, the growth per day for the total number of confirmed is going kicked up to 3% on day 41, right? Which is what we're seeing here towards the end, right? So this is the growth per day based on the official numbers globally, right? Here's the growth per day in China. Even in China, we're seeing a little kick up, right? And here's the growth per day outside of China and it's kicking up, right? Initially, you know, there's a lot of noise. We had 50, 30 kicking up to 80% per day. So it did the noise, flattened out. Now we're seeing the infections kick up and this trend doesn't look good, okay? If you take the data from day 25, right? And day 25 based on our table and I'm gonna provide these tables and graphs on our Patreon page and on our subscribe star page and I'll post these tables and graphs on our Discord and I'm only allowed to do it for Twitter and some of the other sharing platforms so I might load these up. Actually, I'll just load them up on Patreon. That way I can just load up the stuff on one location, right? But if you look at the table here, okay? From day 25 is when China changed the way that we're presenting the data, collecting the data, right? Confirming the data. If you cut out the data above that, right? Take out the initial three, four weeks of data collection that we've had, right? And start looking at the data from day 25, 24. If you do just a regression analysis on this, this thing's going like this. So the infection rate hopefully stabilizes around 20% and starts coming down. But the odds are the growth per day outside of China is gonna, from the trend line, if you do just an analysis on it, it might even go higher than 20 to 30% per day for the next little while, possibly. Hopefully it flattens down and drops but all indications are that it won't, okay? All indications are that the numbers are actually being downplayed, okay? I thought this graph was important as well. So right now the two main columns and the two main graphs that are showing us a more reasonable, more accurate, something that we can rely on better than what the numbers are coming out of China have been this graph, as well as the, not that one, this one, right? The number of confirmed cases outside of China and the percent growth outside of China. Both of these graphs indicate that we're, just at the beginning stages of this thing, the numbers increasing outside of China exponentially, as we're seeing here, right? Especially if the growth rate is also increasing per day. This is per day, by the way. 20% increase per day, 30% more reported per day, 17% more reported per day. You do a little interest rate, takes an interest rate equation that you, everybody uses in economics trying to figure out how much money they're gonna owe in a year if they pay a certain percent. If you run those numbers with a 20% per day exponential growth, wow, wow, wow, right? Now these are the percent growth per day, right? Here is the total deaths, the absolute numbers, what we have right now, global, right? Now one thing I wanted to do in the table I also wanted to include was the number of deaths outside of China, but the data's not accurate, right? I created three tables to be able to crunch those numbers as well, and I looked at them, I checked all my sources and things were reporting different, some were missing it, and I was like, okay, I can't include this data, maybe we'll include the data in next month's update of COVID-19 data that most likely we're gonna analyze, most likely we're gonna revisit this once a month, okay? And just continuously grow this data and link it up with the work we're doing in ASMR mathematics and what we're gonna create in regards to statistics, right? A module on statistics, and by the way, I'm not trying to treat this as only a mathematical concept, right? There's a lot of people being hurt right now, but the data is the data. When you're doing science, you really have to approach this stuff just analyzing the data, putting personal feelings aside, right? Which is one of the powers of mathematics because that gives you a clearer picture of what's going on. You're not in panic mode, you're not going by rumors, you're not freaking out and believing every little hype coming in. You're looking at the data and analyzing that data and trying to get a picture of what's going on. You're not relying on secondary sources to provide you that information, right? So right now what we're seeing with the total number of deaths with this graph was that it was going exponential and flattened out, right? Again, keep in mind, this is total number of deaths. We don't know what the numbers really are coming out of China. This other graph is a total number confirmed recovered, right? Confirmed cases that have recovered, which is fantastic. This is growing exponentially. It's looking a little linear, but again, the numbers that we're getting are not 100% accurate coming out of mainland China and possibly some other countries as well. I don't think the numbers coming out of India are accurate. There's absolutely no way, right? Three confirmed cases for the last two weeks in India, while Canada has gone from four to 20, United States has gone from like three or four to, I forget what it was now. I looked at it before, it was into, I think it's broke 100, right? There was one nursing home, I believe, that old age home that's everybody's infected, like they're quarantining the whole region, right? The whole complex. So, take this with a grain of salt as well, right? The number of recovered is gonna remember there's a delay factor as well. It takes people a long time to recover. So if the number of infected is growing exponentially, right? And it is outside of China, the confirmed cases anyway, then this number will most likely might have a little lag with it, but it should go exponential if the fatality rate is accurate, as they say, which is 2%, we're getting around 3.5% right now. And I'll show you the graph on that, right? So this is the total confirmed recovered cases. This is the fatality rate, right? Now, it was sitting around 2%, it was bouncing off 2%, and then what you're seeing here again on day 24, 25 is when China changed the way their methodology of reporting the numbers, collecting the numbers, testing people, right? That's why we see the click down, right? The mortality, the fatality rate was kicking up, and then all of a sudden number of infected kicked up, right? 15,000, so the number of deaths didn't kick up on that level, so all of a sudden we see a little drop at the 24-day mark where it drops back down to around 2.5%, and then slowly what we're seeing is kicking up to around 3.5%, right? Take this with a grain of salt. If the number of infected is more, then the fatality rate is gonna drop, which is a good thing, right? The number of infected being more is not a good thing, but the fatality rate dropping is a good thing, right? So it's here and there, both positive and negative effects here. If the fatality rate is kicking up to 3.5%, we're getting to more problematic areas. Not that 2% is not problematic, right? This is the percent recovered from the number of confirmed, right? We're sitting above 40% now, right? 45% of people who were tested and confirmed to have COVID-19 have recovered, which is fantastic. And again, you see discrepancy in the data, flaw in the data, because on day 23, 24, 25, 24 to 25, because the number of confirmed cases kicked up by 15,000 in mainland China, the percent recovered dropped, which shouldn't really be the case if the data is not flawed, if something hasn't changed in the methodology, which we know it has, China came out and confirmed it, right? So if you're doing a scientific analysis on this, you have to sort of smooth this out, okay? Run filters through this thing. So percent recovered is not bad, 40 plus percent, right? And this graph here is the number of deaths versus recovered and the number of deaths was a lot higher. It was 140% higher than the percent recovered, number recovered initially. If we look at this table, go back to our table. This is the last column that we're talking about. So the death toll was 259 on January 31st and the number recovered was 187, right? From the confirmed cases. So the number of death was a lot higher than the number of recovered, which was frightening to some people, but we needed more data, right? And when you start looking at the data, the number of recovered obviously is gonna be more than the number of fatalities, right? If the fatality rate is only sitting at two to 3%. So slowly what we're seeing is the ratio of death versus recovered is decreasing, which is a great sign, right? Which is a good sign. Now, this is all the graphs that I had. I just wanted to run through that. So what I wanna do is I wanna put the table back up so everyone can see the data, okay? And again, consider this the third sort of official video that we're doing regarding COVID-19. The first one was this one we had here where it sort of came up during a math live stream where conversation came up regarding exponential growth. So we took like seven days worth of data and extrapolated to the doubling period to see what the growth was. And we did a follow-up live stream in a week or two weeks where we had 17 days worth of data and we did exactly then what we just did now is looked at the tables, looked at the graphs and try to figure out what was going on, okay? Let me kick these down and put up the table. I'm gonna go back to the chat and we're gonna talk about the data, talk about what people think, okay? And if I do end up cutting this little segment now where we looked at the data with the graphs, you can follow the conversation in the next video which will be loaded up, which is the full on live stream. Okay, aside from that, hello chat. How are you doing?