 If you really want to make this work, if this is your dream here and you're willing to do whatever it takes, I'm telling you right now, we are in some of the best moments to become a real estate agent. I'm going to tell you why. What's up everybody? Today I'm going to talk about the cold hard facts behind why I believe we're going to lose more real estate agents this year than any year in the history of the industry. And what you need to be thinking about is we inch closer and closer to this massive market ship. Now I posted this online last week and the two most common responses I got was why do I think this is going to happen and great I'm ready to see less agents in the industry. So it sounds like there's a split there between people who are kind of clueless wondering why in the world that I think this is going to happen and then you have a group who's thinking man it sure would be nice because there's a lot of newbies out there making my job harder. I love to hear your thoughts in the comments about this subject which you think as I move through this video. And while you're down there do me a huge favor and click that little like button. Now before I screen share my computer and give you all the numbers and statistics and data behind this theory of mine I want to share with you my thoughts on why I believe that we have more real estate agents now than ever in history. Right now NAR membership is topping 1.6 million agents in the US and that doesn't count non-member real estate agents which is said to be closer to the 2 to 3 million range. Now my thoughts on why so many agents have jumped into the game of course has a lot to do with the pandemic and the shutdowns and we were all sitting at home a lot of people were laid off and they were thinking I don't want to go back to a job that I have zero control over I want to own my own business right and real estate is a pretty easy business to get into right normally it's one class in your state and a state test and bam your license agent as long as you pay your fees you do your CEs you're ready to roll. So compared to a lot of businesses you can own real estate is not that high a barrier of entry now the course is hard you really have to study for the test and you have to pay your fees and not all that is super easy for a lot of people but it is a lot easier than let's say opening up a restaurant or a retail store where you have very high cost getting into one of those businesses so absolutely the pandemic played a huge part in this and has a huge role but another part of it is the fact that us real estate agents who are out here crushing it we make it look so easy online okay we have TV shows million-dollar listing this shows people going around and selling 10 20 30 million dollar properties like it's nothing okay you got regular everyday agents on social media talking about sold sold pending new listing and just smiling from ear to ear making it seem so incredibly fun and easy and exciting who wouldn't want to get into a business like that I know I was the same way when I got into the business when I got into the business there were more billboards and people on magazines and stuff like that and yeah I saw the people in the magazines I saw the people in the billboards which is today's social media and I thought man they just make it look so easy that they're smiling they seem happy you know they're making a lot of money I want in on that and so that's what I did I got in real estate but I think what I got in real estate you're seeing the same reality now as I saw back then when I got in guys listen I literally quit roofing that day and said I retire I'm gonna go do real estate come to find out 30 days later sold zero worked my ass off and thought this isn't what I thought it was I had to go back to roofing houses now I was one of those top one two three four five percent that was not gonna give up so I was roofing and doing real estate at the same time and it took me eight months to get to my first sale it was not an easy road and I think that's what a lot of agents are seeing right now that it's not an easy road it's not as easy as it looks now if I'm talking to the hard workers out there you guys don't really care how hard it's gonna be if you're like me and you grew up roofing houses or doing something of that nature and you don't really care how hard it's gonna be or how long it's gonna take you're gonna be fine but those of you who got in just to make a quick buck or something you thought was gonna be easy no no no no no no no no this job is way harder than your regular 95 job you show up to regular 95 job you get paid no matter what happens there could be zero production you're getting paid not over here you come over here you got to sell something and listen here's the fact of the matter right here and if I'm talking to new agents here who haven't sold anything you've been in the business for ten months whatever the case may be listen to me right now I do not want you to fail I do not want you to get out of the business the reason I'm making this video right now is for you is for the agents that's on the fence right now thinking about getting out of the business and I want you to be able to see what's fixing to happen in the market and how you can take advantage I don't want you to think of the market ship as this moment of disappointment like that's the last straw that just breaks and you got to get out of the business because that's actually gonna be your pivot point and before you get to the numbers here in just a second I just want to add that the reason why I do any of these thousands of videos that I've made over the last five years the reason why I coach agents for free all the whole nine yards is to reduce the failure rate in the real estate industry and I've said it forever I'm gonna do that two ways I want to teach you my philosophies businesses unlimited relationships over transactions closing tap and everyday regardless of market conditions but also I want to take the next huge market crash and try to educate you on how you can actually perceive that market shift and take advantage of it so that you don't have to quit the business and that ladies and gentlemen is what this video is about I did have one guy on social media say the reason why I think there's so many agents are gonna get out of the business is because I keep trying to teach agents to cold call cold calling is dead it's obsolete and that's the reason why so many agents gonna have to quit because I'm out here telling people that they got a cold call I'm not out here telling you that you got a cold call I'm out here trying to help you communicate who you are as an agent as a person as a human being to your prospects I don't care if you get your lease from Zillow or online or obsidian or door knocking or social media or I don't care where you get your lease from I just want you to be able to understand how to communicate properly how to show people who you are collect their data remarkets of them build your brand and have the most massive business in your market I know the only thing between you and everything you want to achieve in this business are thousands of one-on-one conversations with people on your market I'm just trying to help you get there quicker all right let's check these numbers out so everybody's seen this article here the MN put out a couple months ago the number of realtors hit new record high 2021 all right where basically talks about that by the end of the year in 2021 NAR had 1.559 members up 6.92% from that date a year ago okay a year ago it was 1.458 okay and what they realized was that a record 100,876 agents joined in 2021 okay that's up from the all-time high of 80,000 members of the year prior and so what we don't really know there and I haven't been able to find it anywhere is the churn rate so what they're saying is is 100,000 net that doesn't count the ones that left the business and that doesn't count all the ones that actually joined they're just saying that they have a net positive number of 100,876 agents now what I would like to show you is going back to 1908 when the National Association of Realtors had a total number of members of 1,646 members and they had 20 local associations at that time and so this is the beginning of NAR and you'll see over the last hundred years the number of agents have grown and then there was a setback there was a correction the first correction was the Great Depression okay so it went from 1,646 agents and the peak was 23,000 24,166 that was 1926 and then over the last next few years it dwindled down all the way to 10,000 so went from 24,000 agents plus to just over 10,000 agents by 1935 so we see this happen back then when we have the Great Depression that the number of agents grew up to a point and then as the market shifted and we saw massive market cycles the number of agents dwindled okay and then from the Great Depression we see the number of agents continue to climb all the way to 1980 okay 1980 it climbed all the way and had positive net numbers all the way to 1980 where had grown up to 761,391 members okay and if you guys remember 1980 that was a there was a big crash back then and so 1981 1982 the numbers went from 761,000 to 617,521 okay so they lost nearly 150,000 agents during that two year span of the market crash again guys I'm just going through history here we're seeing cycles here we're seeing a pattern in 1983 as the number of agents started to rise after that crash it went all the way to 1989 where we had a top of 822,935 members of NAR okay and then the number started to dwindle and so it dwindle for a good eight years and the bottom was 716,078 agents and so we didn't lose a hundred thousand that time we lost about 95,000 agents during that six year time frame so then the number of agents started to build up again build up again and it got to a whopping in 2006 1,357,732 agents and if you guys remember we had that remarkable market run from 2002 to 2005 where we literally brought on an extra 500,000 more than 500,000 agents during that five year span because the market exploded so much a lot like what we're seeing right now so from 2006 to 2012 okay we lost over 350 really 360,000 agents 360,000 agents during that time now let's look at the history of from 2005 to the predictions up to 2023 of real estate transactions right here we see that in 2005 we had a high of 7 million transactions in the country and in 2006 was the year that things started to dwindle and transaction started to come down from the big crash everybody thinks 2008 is the big crash 2008 was the big stock market crash but real estate prices and real estate transactions had been coming down for several years before that so between 2006 and 2008 we went from six to seven million transactions down to a little over four million transactions so we lost around about a third of the transactions if we flip back here we realized that we had 1.357 million real estate agents and it went down to a million we lost about a third of our real estate agents so if you realize that when we lose transactions we normally lose in comparison the same amount of agents and you realize that this is pretty closely correlated it really kind of opens your eyes up to the fact that as the market does shift and we have less transactions we're gonna lose the same amount of agents and what's that gonna do it's gonna produce the same amount of transactions per agent now this is what I think is very interesting about our market our current market and that is if you look at this graph that statistic came up with here they actually show that the transaction started to rise from 2010 it came up into the five millions last year we hit a six million over six million transactions and if you look at 2022 that got us predicted of losing about five percent of our transactions doing just under six million and then in 2023 they've got us coming back up over six million but I think what's really interesting and what I think we're actually going to see here is that even if we do lose five percent of our transactions this year like they're saying I think we're gonna lose a lot more than five percent of our agents now if we go back to the Narside and look at from 2012 to current it shows us going from the million which is what it bottomed out at in 2012 all the way up and climbing to the 1.559 million agents so I think we're gonna have a combination of different things here I think we're gonna have this market that shifts that scares a lot of agents that don't understand how markets work I think that's gonna be coupled with the fact that a lot of agents are coming up on their CEs and it's time to renew their license which means they're gonna have to put more time in to the CEs and also put up more money to renew their their licenses and I think when you look at a combination of everything going on right now we're just kind of set up to take a huge loss a number of agents now going back to the agents I might be talking to who are on the fence about this or thinking about maybe this isn't for them or what are the case maybe maybe it's not for you okay maybe it's not what you thought it was and maybe that it might be the smartest thing for you to leave the business I don't know but let me tell you something if you really want to make this work if this is your dream here and you're willing to do whatever it takes I'm telling you right now we are in some of the best moments to become a real estate agent I'm gonna tell you why as agents start to leave the business and you're one of the last agents standing I'm gonna tell you right now if you're the one working to have as many conversations as you can possibly have you're gonna come out the winner and you're gonna gobble up so much market share during this time because what's gonna happen is the experienced agents they're just gonna be leaning on their their sphere and their past clients they're not gonna be out there trying to actually build their sphere and if they knew what was good for them they would be out there building their sphere during this time when most agents are not so it's it goes back to the whole thing that the agents are leaving the business which is gonna happen by herds I want to save that group same reason I want to save the experienced agents who are not gonna take advantage of the situation at hand that they could use to go build their business they can four or five ten extra business over the next three four five years just like I did in 2008 when I got back in the business I went out there and I worked harder than anybody to talk to the most people and guess what by 2014 I was the number one remix agent in the state of Alabama and it was all because I visualized this I took everything that learned in the big crash where I lost everything and I applied it to the moment another thing is is that inventory is gonna come up during this time just think about how easy it's gonna be to sell real estate when inventory is higher and prices are lower we've been in this high price you know high inflation low interest rate rock bottom inventory market and think about how tough it's been you have a buyer you make offer you lose you make offer you lose think about if the buyer that you have can take their pick of whichever house they want and you got sellers basically fighting over you trying to bid their own house down so that you will pick them now that may be a little exaggerated but the fact is that inventory will come up at some point prices are gonna inch down at some point and think about how easy that's gonna be guys we're about to get into the really good part of the market and I don't want to see you leave the business so hope this video helped you I hope you're listening loud and clear I hope you apply what I said I hope you thought about it shoot me a comment I'm trying to respond to every single comment and message on every single platform I want to touch every single one of you guys and I just want to do my part to help everyone in the industry be a better human be a better agent be a better father daughter mother son dad whatever I want you to go out there and be the best you that you can be right and all we can be is all we can be I love you guys we'll talk to you soon