 This is covering the spread here are your hosts Jim sawness and dr. Ed Fang What is going on everybody welcome on into covering the spread that's right here on the fan dual podcast network in number fire Dot-com where today we are previewing week 13 the NFL with Fabian summer of football handicapping dot-com getting his thoughts on this week's games And also his his his process for betting in the NFL finding closing line value Getting the best number every week. My name is Jim sonnis I am a senior writer and analyst for a number fire dot-com joined here as always by dr. Ed Fang You can find his work over at the power ink dot-com Ed Interesting week in the NFL last week not just the the Ravens and the Steelers game that finally was played yesterday But also the Broncos playing a practice got a squad wide receiver at quarterback It was a weird week and I feel like that was definitely the strangest point We've had so far in this weird COVID adventure land that has been the 2020 NFL season. Yeah, that was a heck of a game Right. I mean you would think that the NFL would consider postponing moving That but I don't know maybe they're trying to send a lesson about where a mask inside or whatever right Whatever rule that the the quarterbacks didn't break That they end up they did end up breaking But here in the in the greater Detroit area, like we couldn't get that game unless you had like red zone Yeah, so I was telling my kids about it and they're like well We want to we want to watch the knock over that play quarterback It's like well, you can't you know, it's not Tim Tebow highlights on YouTube man Like yeah, you can find this. Yeah, and I was definitely following along. I was like, yeah He hasn't completely to pass yet. Yeah But it was interesting right because I mean when whenever had a quarterback I think New Orleans was a three four fourish point favorite in that game And then when this all happened, you know, New Orleans goes up to a 17 point favorite and they cover and One element that I use in my models is market data, right? So I take all those closing spreads and and I just for who you played and I and I get a prediction based on What the market thinks right and it's a pretty it's a very strong predictor it kind of varies across sport But it's definitely something I use in my NFL model and with this game It's such an unprecedented situation that I can't right use that game, right? I mean you just have to really or how do you do it? What do you admit it completely or to use a number before the quarterback news happened? No, I just admitted it completely because who knows where that number is gonna close that right beforehand So, you know, you have like this midweek number And then that's also complicating too because like I'm trying to get it market data for New Orleans with Taysum Hill as well, right? Right and like oh, yeah So like one game of real data here so far. You know before even play the game. Yeah, right exactly So you got you have one game of data on Taysum Hill, which you know, I don't really trust like I don't I'm not gonna say I mean, I'm starting to trust the market stuff when you get two three games definitely with three Plus minus with with two games, but you know, there's a hole I mean, there's a way if members on my site, you know, you go through the NFL predictions this week It's like well, I can't really give you a number based on one market game But if I did this is what the result would be. Yeah, so Yeah, 2020 is definitely messing with everything and you know, just try to do the best you can I also think that Bronco's story is super interesting because apparently it initially was wasn't gonna be a thing But someone snitched Like someone saw the quarterbacks in their field house I think it was Lindsay Jones at the athletic who reported this like someone at the Broncos facility Called the NFL after they had done their contact tracing interviews and said hey Check the tapes. They were in this field house with no masks on eating lunch And that's the reason they all had to sit out which honestly like good for them I don't I would assume it wasn't a Broncos employee But like if you're sitting in a room With people with no masks and one of them you've later find out as COVID for two hours Like they probably shouldn't be on an NFL field so good for them But that's also fascinating that it was because someone snitched on them to the NFL Like again, that's what they should have done, but it's still fascinating that that's the route to which it happened Yeah, no for sure and like, you know, I Wonder I mean, you know the other thing you could potentially do is just have one of your quarterbacks Be on zoom all the time, right? Well, that's what they said. They're gonna do now Is they're gonna Blake Bortles like effectively like be a drifter I think there was some other which honestly it's been the case for a while for Blake, but There was some other team that said they were gonna keep their third stringer kind of isolated I know that Josh make I think that Josh McCown's on a team I don't know which team it is, but I'm pretty sure he's on a team He's like at home. He's been at home all year But I think there's another team that said they're gonna do the same thing I don't recall which team it was but like there have been reports this week about who the emergency Quarterbacks would be on certain teams and personally I want to see a lot of them like I don't like I don't want people to get COVID I'd like it to be like some other thing like they get lost in traffic I can't get make it to the stadium. So instead the 49ers have to start Jared McKinney like that'd be great I'd love that. That would be cool Kendall Hinton not quite as cool, but like good for him, you know, you know No, exactly. Like good for him. He got some press You know did the best he could under got a game check got a game ball out of it You know, that's not bad and like hopefully he'll see the field as a wide receiver one of these days Honestly, the Broncos should give him a an active roster salary the rest of the year out of like Recompense for putting him in that situation like they should keep him on the active roster Give him that extra salary for that reason because he deserves it because that's a tough situation to be in So kudos to him. I would love to see Jerick McKinnon Liviska Chanel play quarterback at some point in the future, but hopefully under different circumstances again My my personal preference is stuck in traffic, but we shall see As things go along our guest today is family is Fabian somer. You can find him on Twitter at Su ma a 10. He is at football dash handicapping calm We're in a preview week 13 to the NFL. You can also find Fabian on a matchbook. They do videos up on Twitter I know Drew Dinsick is in those two videos as well. So Definitely good cast of characters for them with Fabian. We're gonna talk about week 13 The NFL also talk about the way he makes his own market numbers and decides where to try to find some closing line value Yesterday here on covering the spread. We talked with Pamela Maldonado about week 14 in college football We did go through the Liberty Coastal Carolina game. Obviously that game is no longer happening Yeah, they'll be placing or coastal is facing BYU instead But honestly, we would have talked about too because that's not like a really fun game But outside of that we did get some talk about the Sun Belt in either way and also other games Pamela likes for week 14 To get Pamela's thoughts on that and more make sure you check out covering the spread wherever you get your podcast And while you're there if you like what you hear leave us a rating in review as well and just bad timing I think on the The whole Liberty mess with regards to the COVID stuff yesterday Well, yeah, I mean we talked about the line movement in our coastal line Coastal Carolina become an 11-point favorite and then Pam actually messaged me like right after we got off that Yeah, we're back head COVID and that's the line movement and then things evolve to the games canceled and all of a sudden Hey, look BYU shows up in town So Yeah, I mean that's gonna be super interesting. That's a fun game I mean BYU's probably got to be ecstatic that I know like again You don't want people to get COVID but like well from a circumstance perspective. It worked out well for BYU Right, plus they're gonna play a 9-0 team that my numbers have them as a double-digit favorite as Even on the road, so you're gonna get a good win Maybe maybe you'll crack the top 10 and we can have like, you know Maybe some conversation about how you're not gonna get into the playoff and more data on Zach Wilson Which I will certainly take for when we come to evaluation time for the spring before we get into Fabian for this week Though we do have to go back to last week We had James Holt's hour on a preview week 12 in the NFL and a couple interesting bets there from that one covering the past So last week again, we had James Holt's hour again Jeopardy James Holt's hour to preview week 12 in the NFL mostly talked to them about his NFL models the relationship between betting and Jeopardy and honestly like even if The picks are outdated the recommendations are out late data. I recommend going back to that one hearing what he said So it was a really fun conversation You can also find him James on Twitter at James underscore Holt's hour didn't focus a ton on the actual games Now the one game where he said that his line differed the most in the market was on the Panthers Plus three and a half against the Vikings it did close at Carolina plus three and they actually almost won that game outright and probably should have if not for Some, you know wonky things at the end there a Chad BV touchdown catch and a terrible field goal kick by Joey Sly They might have won they did still cover so James is right regardless, but almost got the win there as well I had the Dolphins minus six and a half against the Jets that was recorded before the news that Ryan Fitzpatrick would start and the line eventually moved to seven and a half so Six and a half we discussed seven and a half at close But this one didn't really even require a sweat because the Jets scored just three points which Brutal just a brutal team across the board. So the Dolphins covered pretty easily there They won 20 to 3 so back-to-back good weeks with riding that Dolphins defense and feeling pretty good about them again Little lucky with the Broncos under 20 points or under 21 points, but you know, we'll take it for sure We're gonna get into week 13 here in just one second But first hey Colorado listeners Mandel sportsbook is giving you an opportunity to get the best odds on the market for this weekend's Colorado Buffalo's and Arizona Wildcats game with the three best words in sports betting spread the love It is simple Colorado opened up as a three and a half point favorite in that game But the line will move one point for every 500 customers who wager on it And the best part is no matter when you place your bets You will be locked in for the final spread the game is approaching quickly So download the Fandall sportsbook mobile app and place your bets today must be 21 plus and present in Colorado Must wager and doesn't need a boost market a crowdfunding market I should say max wager $50 payout at minus 110 gambling problem call 1805 to two forty seven hundred They did a spread the love thing with like a Lakers game at one point this year And I think it closed at like Lakers minus 70 or something absurd like that. So Pretty fun promotion and again the key in there is it doesn't matter when you bet it you will get the final number So you don't need to delay you don't need to wait until you get the best number But fun promotion sportsbook.fandall.com for more information there Let's bring on Fabian somer now to preview week 13. You can find him on Twitter at SUMA a 10 and find his work football handicapping.com and also on matchbook We're gonna preview week 13 and get Fabian's thoughts on the NFL Covering the present Let's welcome Fabian somer into covering the spread to break down week 13 across the NFL Fabian I know it's late for you over in Germany. So I appreciate the time. How are you doing today? Thanks guys. Thanks for having me on everything. All right over here. I hope you are fine as well on the other side of the Planet so to speak. Yeah, I mean as fine as fine can be in these weird times I think that's all we can ask for here. So no complaints here by any means and I think that as long as we got that We're all good But oh, what are things been like? I guess for you because we know the American side of things when it comes to COVID-19 reactions and things have obviously been underwhelming But how have things been and there's been pretty hectic for you the past couple of months as well Personally not really. I think we are fine over here I think the German government has done a terrific job in terms of Doing the right measures to contain the spread I think we can always argue about specific measures Which don't make sense all the time But I think overall we have done a terrific job and we have one of the lowest death rates in the world, so I Think I can really complain about what we have done over the past couple of months No, that's amazing Fabian and and I've been over here at the US Definitely looking up to what the German government has is doing over there I also look up to the Germans in terms of playing soccer big Bundesliga fan How'd you ever get into the NFL with with all the the soccer influence over there? Yes, so I've been a big soccer fan my whole life I think I started watching soccer when I when I was five years old I'm a big Schalke fan. I had season tickets. I have a club membership But over the years to be honest the more I've watched football American football the more I've lost my interest in soccer and I think since 2017 2016 I I barely watch soccer at all. I try to watch every Schalke game when possible But I've lost my interest completely It's it's it's been getting kind of boring to be honest and American football is such a nice and complex sports So my interest completely shifted in that area Is it the complexity that draws you towards American football like the strategy or what kind of pushed you towards that over? Watching more soccer Yeah, so first of all, it's it's a complex game and people in Europe and in Germany who watch football for the first time they always complain about all the breaks and They aren't even playing. It's not fluent, but to to be honest to me That's the fascinating thing about football that every snap and every play Starts at zero and there's so much tactics and so much strategy involved It's it's just a really really cool game to be honest. Okay. All right. Well, this is good This is good confirmation bias for me as a football fan. So I like this. Thank you, Fabian. I appreciate that now From a betting perspective you tend to put a heavy emphasis within your recommendations on finding closing line value And we obviously all want closing line value It's great to be able to get a better number that you can find later on But you also have to be able to predict which way the markets are gonna move in order to do so So what are some keys you're looking for when trying to identify in which direction the markets are gonna move? So I think overall there are certain ways that lead to Rome but To me the the most important thing is I have to create good numbers. I originate all my NFL numbers usually Monday morning I Use a statistical model. I use a subjective power rating that gives me some kind of a base number for every game And then I adjust that number with a heavy subjective layer of match-up analysis Injury situations, etc And then I come up with a number for every game where I think that the fair market price should be And then I compare my own numbers to the market. I Try to find discrepancies between my numbers and the market numbers And then it's basically just Either I am going to bet something early in the week or there's something that I haven't accounted for Or let's say some specific injury situations where I want to wait until later in the week And then it's really just a process of figuring out when to bet a certain game Sometimes it's just easy Monday evening. I've got my number. I've got let's say Three and a half on one game the number is two and a half I I don't have to account for any specific injury situations later in the week I haven't heard of any Major moving groups that want to play the other side. So I I can just fire away And sometimes it's just about information injuries later in the week more research more Matchup matchup analysis. So sometimes I could adjust my numbers Throughout the week and say, oh, here's something that I've missed some specific stuff and yeah, and in the end The primary goal is that the difference between my number and the number I bet into is higher than the discrepancy between my number and the actual closing line on Sunday Morning and when my numbers are good Then I will generate a closing line value automatically sometimes the market is against me and I get kicked so to speak Yeah, but over the long term, it's looking pretty solid So baby and when you're doing your analysis So obviously you start with the model and then you kind of make your subjective adjustments on top of that Do you try to do that without looking at what the market says to not get any bias? Yes, absolutely Usually when you watch the games on Sunday evening and Sunday night and Sometimes you would just scroll down Twitter and there comes bed online and here are our opening numbers. I Actually try to look away. I Don't want to see any numbers until Monday morning when I created my own numbers just to Avoid any possible bias biases. So how much subjective tinkering is there for you on a weekly basis? Are you altering every team or is it just teams that have major injuries? Like how much of this is manual on your part to make the the ratings where you want them to be? So my subjective power rating is all subjective work and Obviously, there are not a lot of Crazy adjustments you do on a weekly basis Sometimes a big-time cornerback gets injured or an important left tackle That could move a rating for me quite a bit But also coaching for instance The chargers are a very good example, I think I Think just when you look at the chargers Offense and defense Justin Herbert. They are pretty good football team overall but I make a crazy adjustment for the coaching aspect and I Can't tell you right now exactly what the difference is But I think I'm like one and a half points lower just because Anthony Lin is still the head coach of the chargers Yeah, I still think they're one and six or one and seven and one score games with Justin Herbert, so Probably good adjustment there Also wanted to ask you about scheme Is that something that you use when you're when you're making these suggestive adjustments and can you give us an example? Yeah, absolutely. So It's not just scheme But it's also play calling and trying to understand what the coaches are trying to do on a weekly basis on the field For instance Frank Reich is a coach that usually tries to attack opposing weaknesses, so It was I think very prominent in the 2018 season When they played the Texans twice Or even a third time in the playoffs the Texans that here had a very good run defense And even though the Colts were very good at running the ball I think they had like top eight efficiency metrics on the season The Texans had a very weak pass defense and what Frank Reich was trying to do He came out and they had like an 80% passing rate on early downs They didn't even try to run on a very start Texas front seven with Jedebian Clowney with JJ what? And I think that this is very important to know Because there are also teams like the Lions recently with Matt Patricia and Darryl Bovell They just tried to run the ball with with Adrian Peterson against deck boxes No matter what the opposing defense offering them so I think this is one part and the other part is scheming I Want to know how a team tries to attack defenses Because that also matters when it comes to injury so There are teams where the number one wide receiver doesn't matter as much as for other teams for example the Lions again I think this year they had on offense an average of 0.3 EPA per Dropback when Kenny Golda is in the starting formation and when he's out of the game They average like minus 0.08 and that's because Darryl Bovell tries to attack opposing defenses With deep dropbacks of play action He wants to give Kenny Golda these kind of 50-50 balls He wants a stepper to be aggressive down the field and and when Kenny Golda is not in the lineup That scheme doesn't really work. So Marvin Jones is I think 31 years old He's not the guy who's consistently winning these battles down the sideline against opposing cornerback once And Kenny Golda is that guy I think it was the Falcons game three or four five weeks ago Where he just had a complete highlight wheel of catching 50-50 balls Making great plays at the catch point and that's pretty much Stefan's game The last two seasons and when Kenny Golda is out. That's a crazy Downgrade for this Lions offense And so this is very important for me to understand which players have a High impact within the scheme of the offense And we've seen that a couple of times this year. It's not just Gallaudet, you know, Julio Jones is definitely an impact on Atlanta There are definitely several different examples you could turn to I think that's a sharp way to view things and speaking of scheme Let's talk about two teams that are pretty drastic in the way They they operate from a play calling perspective in the Browns and the Titans Titans six-point favorites here Total is 53 and a half and this game opened at four and a half But it shifted to Tennessee minus six did your numbers agree at that movement towards the Titans or what do you think led to the interest in Tennessee here? I think I make that game four and a half And I think the interest for the Titans is entirely based on the matchup against this Current state of the Browns team so to speak Their their defense is getting miles Garrett back Which is a significant boost for the defensive line, especially when you play against a left-taker David Cresenberry of the Titans. This might be the biggest mismatch on the field, but The Browns defense is not really good I think when you look at their defensive metrics They are kind of overrated right now because they played a very easy schedule of opposing offenses And they also had these three crazy weather games against the Raiders the Texans and the Eagles at home where there was like 30 to 40 MPH of wins and You couldn't you couldn't really Pass the ball through the air So their defensive metrics should usually be a little bit lower and they will be without Denzel ward and Without Ronnie Harrison, which was was a tremendous addition This season, so they don't really have a secondary That their line-making corp is very bad their interior how defensive lines bad So the Titans can pretty much want the ball at will and when they can though When the Titans can one the ball at will they will also use a lot of play action off of that and when they get edge a brown journal Smith and Coe Davis into space against this bad tackling Browns team That really smells a disaster for me And I wouldn't be surprised if the Titans once again score in the 30s and I really think that this drives this move but I Think power numbers wise or any kind of model Has trouble to get to this current market price of six so I expect some buyback there and I wouldn't be surprised if the Number comes off the six and we see something like a minus five on Sunday So is that enough for you to buy into the Browns here with the Titans now being six-point favorites? Or do the matchup discrepancies that you discussed do they drive you away from buying in even even though your numbers do see some value here? I have a little bit of value on the spread but because I don't like that match up for the Browns I'm just going to skip the side. I'm actually interested in the over Here, I think it was 54 before it came off the board I think it came off the board because of some Browns staff member had COVID And I think on this game We have a very fair tail on the right side of the distribution because with these two defenses and the way Both offenses try to create big plays Off of play action against the secondary I really think that could easily turn to a shootout Baker Mayfield he is terrible under pressure, but the Titans can't really get any push up front Clowney still out. I think Jeffrey Simmons is dealing with a knee injury that tights defense is not really good So I'm actually expecting quite a good game from Baker Mayfield the run game should be solid So I can really see this game going to a shootout But if this game goes into a shootout I would still give the edge to the Tennessee Titans because that passive game is still on another level than the one of the Browns Absolutely agree with that Awesome, let's move on to Rams at Cardinals Rams are three-point favorite markets have Decided since the early weeks of the season that they really like this team total of 48 and a half Neither of these teams played really well in week 12. I Feel like Jared Goff is what I call a high variance quarterback. How do you see this game playing out? Yeah, I benefited from the early market move early in the week I played the carnals at plus three. I think minus or six I didn't really get to the three here. I made this game a pick em I have these teams very equal on a neutral field I think Matchup wise the kindness could get into trouble because the Rams have a very good defense They could put gel and Ramsey on Deandre Hopkins And that leaves the carnals with Christian Kirk and Larry Fitzgerald on some underneath stuff I think the the early market move was also Something indicating that the market is not fully confident that color Mary is going to be a hundred percent There are some good fantasy doctors out there who think that he's going to be close to a hundred percent I think you saw it in the Patriots game the carnals started really slowly They were very conservative on on offense, but in the second half Kyla actually was running around So I think he's two and a half weeks removed from his AC joints brain or whatever that was I think he's going is going to be close to a hundred percent and Overall when I look at these both teams, I think the carnals are at least equal to the Rams If we look at some stuff like schedule adjusted EPA per play the the carnals are almost one tier ahead of the Rams this season The Rams offense hasn't really been good like I'd already said Joe golf had a very good start to the season first first three or four weeks since then that passing game has completely fell off a cliff I think on the season. They are like 21st in EPA per drop back So I don't really buy this Rams offense with Joe golf with high variance Joe golf and without his start left tackle Andrew Whitworth to to go toe-to-toe with Kyla Mary And his set of weapons so like I said, I had a decent discrepancy between my own number and and the and the market number and plus three at home with the carnals I couldn't really pass up and I Really gotta go with Kyla Mary here over Joe golf So does the faith in Kyla Murray being healthier this week give you any thoughts in the over here at 48 and a half Or do the concerns around the Rams offense push you off of pulling the trigger there? Gone to my head. I would probably lean towards the over, but I think it's a very fair fair market number right now Joe golf The difference between the carnals defense of recent years and and this year is that Vance Joseph Suddenly decided that he's going to play a lot more man coverage and comes up with a lot more blitzes So this is not really the same carnals defense that McVay charged over the last three seasons So I think this blitz heavy carnals defense can actually give Joe golf some issues especially With that offensive line we saw it three weeks ago or far against Brian Flores and Miami Dolphins as soon as you Come up with heavy blitzes and try to confuse him. I think he is very due for some mistakes and Yeah, I Just think that I would rather take the carnals offense with Kyla Murray over Jett goff All right, so let's move here to the bills at the 49ers bills now one point favorites here They were two and a half It's now one total is 48 the 49ers think justified me that moment They showed a lot more life in week 12 as they started to get some key contributors back Richard Sherman is back Devo Samuel was back Do you think that that good performance was a one-week blip or should we now be higher on the 49ers? And we were in the middle of the year when all those injuries really piling up I think we should absolutely be higher on them Because that defense has been really good over recent weeks even with all those injuries I think Robert Sally the defense coordinator is doing a tremendous job Jason Barrett has been a tremendous addition this year. He's really locking down some receivers on his side Now Richard Sherman is big So that makes it really hard for quarterbacks to throw also at the numbers when there are Jason Barrett and Richard Sherman covering Two-thirds of their cover three zone defense They have a very good line-making Corp The past is actually not as bad as I Assumed it would be without Nick Bosa and default. They got some guys from the second row really stepping up And I think Josh Allen won't have a very easy game John Brown is a Downgrade for the offense that he's on IR because his deep speed really opens up some stuff underneath for Stefan Dix So I think the builds matchup wise are going to have a rough time because their run game should be non-existent The Niners defense is really good against the run and the builds don't have a good one game on the season so far So it will really come down to Josh Allen playing against the Niners defense And I wouldn't even be surprised if Brian devil comes up with the same game plan as he came up against Seattle where they Had a like a hundred percent pass rate on Hurley down And then it really comes down to whether Josh Allen can Buy himself outscore this Niners offense. I have some concerns with Nick Mullins I think within the scheme of Kyle Shannon. He's a very solid Quarterback who gets the job done against an average defense They will try to run the ball as much as they can try to get bread and I use who is who is going to be back Into space Debo Samuel into space and the builds defense hasn't really been good So I think there are some areas where the Niners can attack this builds defense in space and on the ground Overall, I think this this is going to be a 50-50 matchup my my own number for this game was three and it's actually interesting that there are some Different market opinions among some sharp guys and some sharp groups There are some sharp groups who played the Niners at three and two and a half, but I also know some really sharp guys who like the builds in this matchup So it's going to be interesting. I wouldn't be surprised with the number bounces a little bit between one and three until Monday Right now I would tend to lean Buffalo because I make this number three and When when I break everything down, I would still prefer the much better quarterback in this game But I'm I'm going to wait and see you whether the number moves So Bobby and you had this bills favorite by three You know Close to three. Yes. Okay Excellent. Um, awesome. Are there any other games over a fan to a sportsbook that stand out to you? One game that stands out where we don't really know what the quarterback is going to be is the dolphins against the Bengals, I think the count market number when I saw that right is minus 11.5. So it's that right So if to attack over low I was going to play and I think Brian Flores said that he won't Declare his data until Sunday morning, which is kind of weird. I Think that number Would have to come down towards 10, but I personally don't think that To us going to play He had two limited practices. He's playing. He's practicing with a brace I don't really think that Brian Flores is going to say hey to her after two Limited practices. I'm going to play you in a very important play of a game with play of implications So I think that's a Ryan Fitzburg. I think that Ryan Fitzpatrick is going to start and I don't really see How the Bengals are going to score touchdowns in this game That Dolphins defense is really really good against the pass the Bengals have a bottom three offensive line brand or Bren Allen is just a backup quarterback and Brian Flores his defense has been extremely good when we look at all the games against Average at best quarterbacks Against average quarterbacks this year Cam Newton minus 0.1 EPA per play Gardner Minchou minus 0.13 Joe Flacco minus 0.37 Jett golf minus 0.4 and Donald last week. So Usually Defensive metrics are a reflection of the opposing offense that you play so for a very very big part But there's also some signal in defensive performances and this signal for the dolphins in my opinion is kind of strong because when they play a Average or below average passing often they completely shut them down and that's what I what I'm expecting to see Against the Bengals this week and I think when Ryan Fitzpatrick gets Call it to the lineup. I wouldn't be surprised if that numbers skyrockets to like minus 13 minus 13 and a half Power rating wise. I think that most ratings won't agree with such a number I think many ratings will have the dolphins like a minus 10 minus 11 But I think that because it's such a big difference sorry a Big matchup advantage for the dolphins defense against Brandon Allen behind this offensive line I think we have to adjust a little bit more here I made this number minus 13 and a half with the Ryan Fitzpatrick I wanted to wait for some practice reports whether to us looking to play I don't think is going to play and I would Probably lock that in rather sooner than later Okay, so reading the tea leaves here and trying to see if to us starts and then Reacting the dolphins like he said that dolphins defense has been very good And it's benefited us here the past couple weeks as well. That is Fabian summer Fabian Thank you so much for swinging by today and breaking down week 13 for us Really appreciate all the insights. Thank you again and good luck to you with your bets in week 13 Thanks for having me guys. Have a good day. Thank you as well. Appreciate it Covering the future Big thank you once again to Fabian solar for swinging by and breaking down week 13 catch Fabian on twitter at SUMA 10 and check out his website football dash handicapping.com and his videos He does with matchbook and drew dinsig there as well and Ed It was fun to hear the way that Fabian makes his numbers because I think that the manual aspect of it We always want to automate but like Manually doing things when we were this deep in the year and there are so many non regular starters of quarterback There's a lot of value in that so that it was interesting to hear the way that he actually does that by hand Yeah, absolutely and like the final results were actually pretty close to it to what I have so You know in my numbers He said it's going to be hard to make a number. That's Tennessee minus six. Well, yeah, it is. I mean mines minus four He had rams and cardinals that pretty much a pick. I have I have rams to win by two, but still on the same side And then he had Buffalo by about three. I have it a little bit more Than that I'm using my market rankings here to just to adjust for the quarterback situation That's actually a pretty interesting game in general and So anyways agreement with what he was saying and what I'm putting out Uh, yeah, you should also remember that like they're playing Buffalo at san francisco in arizona. I have a neutral site Because it's a neutral site, especially this week for for san francisco because they're essentially traveling there so that's part of Something you should think about it They're both traveling this week. It's it's basically like a super wool type game Yeah, a really weird situation to with the 49ers having to play I think it's their next two or three games in arizona. So this one got lucky because it's on a monday But you know just a really interesting situation there for sure It's fun to hear that your numbers are similar because It sounds like there are very different routes to getting there And it's nice when when numbers align, but the the method for getting there is different I think that's always Fascinating situations. So thank you to fobby and for joining us and breaking that down Let's move now into covering the future for week number 13 ed you want to talk pittsburgh versus washington What are you seeing in that game? Yeah, so um, when I was when I decided to talk about this game, uh, a lot of books had Uh, pittsburgh as a tennis point favorite. Um, that's not what you're going to find a fan dual sports right now Because john shearer knows, uh, what he's doing Um, but I don't know if I've talked about pittsburgh as the most overrated 11 and 0 team ever But but they really are in in my mind and and the problems really are in the offense Um, you know, the the pure numbers wise there they ranked 23rd when I look at adjusted success rate You can just think about the game last night, right? Where I think they had a fun How many points they had like 19 points? Yeah, it was but one of them was a defensive touchdown, right? Yeah A pick six early in the game and there's been a lot of that this season, you know, they lead the nfl in takeaways Um, so it's this interesting situation where they're like, you know, bottom 10 when you look at the underlying metrics in terms of success rate, but there's six best when you look at point scored um But a lot of that is turnovers good field position. Um, and they're only 20th football outside Is actually tracks yards per drive and they're only 20th in that metric um, so I mean, I feel like I'm going to be fading pittsburgh a lot kind of heading into the future. Um But their defense is good, uh, you know, they're they're the best defense when I look at adjusted success rate And when you think about this unit, you know, it's a lot of the same guys that they had last year And this unit was good enough To make the Steelers 8 and 8 despite the awful qb play of mason Rudolph and delvin hodges last year, right? So Anyways, that should tell you something. Um, so washington is another team that gets carried by its defense It's third in my adjusted success rate Uh, and you know another team that has been struggling on offense Um, you know, I I I did look at the last four games since alex mith has took over. Um His passing success rate has been decent Uh compared to what we had saw before, you know, 56 against the new york giants 51 against detroit 41 against incinati 50 against dallas the NFL average is about 46 percent so you know reasonable numbers and of course like those four past defenses all stink so You know, it's not like it's not like he's facing anything like they're seeing in pittsburgh but, um Look alex mith and that offense is going to struggle against pit three defense, right? So Um, but they might be better often than throwing, uh, who I think doing haskins is healthy, right? So yeah, he's been healthy all year. He just hasn't you know, they just decided to bench it and like Not even bench. They like he got relegated if we're going to like go back to phobian and the soccer discussion Dwayne haskins got relegated effectively But why aren't a vera still believes in him? I think right? So my number makes this, uh, pittsburgh to win by about eight seven point seven points. Um, if you can find a nine out there I would I would definitely take washington on on this spot right here, especially pittsburgh on a short rest A lot of their key guys nursing injuries Um, but I'm also intrigued by the under. Um, silly fan dual sports book has this at a pretty low number I think what you're saying 42. Yeah, it's 42 right now. Yeah, they they know they knew what you were going to do Ed, I know john shearing is to subscribe to your email newsletter. Maybe you should uh check check that No, john's great and like, I mean, I think that's pretty close to where this number should be Um, my model says 41.7 So I don't really use my totals model too much I um, but it uses, uh, yards per pass attempt in coming up with that total. Um But I'm going to rework it so that it's using success rate in the future But if I did that now, I'm pretty sure the number would come out lower than uh, then even 41.7 I don't know how much lower because I haven't run it yet, but Uh, definitely, you know, I definitely see pittsburgh as an as an under team With what, you know, as soon as they stop getting these defensive touchdowns and turnovers That are putting him in prime field goal position prime field position Um So, you know, if you can find a 43 44 out there, which I think I saw right before we got on the show I would definitely take that one. I think the two thing too with With pittsburgh is that you would think that because they're such a heavy passing team They would be an over team But they it doesn't matter because it's so they're all so short like Mena cons of espn brought up the like this thing that ben rothasburgers be in like a point guard Uh, this was like in week five And people just railed against her because they're like, oh no ben, you know ben He checks it deep But like with every week that's gone past it's like, oh Mena becomes more and more right with what she said and yet people are just stupid on twitter They haven't like admitted that yet But like this has been a thing all year and ben's been this dink and dunk type guy Which is very un ben rothasburger like so even though they are a heavy passing team It's hard to expect a lot of points in their games because it's just so short and like sure it's It's a boring passing offense. I think i'm okay saying it like You said the most overrated 11-0 team also the most they're the most boring 11-0 team just because like I don't know. I don't I don't like watching their brand of football that all that much so right I mean under makes sense here, too. Yeah, I mean he does have some young receivers Yeah, um, I mean they seem to me like they have a lot of talent So I don't know why they're not chucking it a little deeper. They should chuck it to their good receiver They should chuck it to chase claypool and uh, just do that instead. I think that'd be great, but yeah Yeah, I mean, I guess he did throw one last night to jonte johnson that he just dropped so Deontay's infuriating for fantasy. So it's uh, that's You're speaking my language here. That is for sure. Okay So Ed Wants you to look for the best number you can get on potentially getting Washington potentially being the under on that game for mine This is terrifying Ed But I want to put money on the los angeles chargers now before you jump off the screen I want to say i'm not betting the money line. I'm not betting the spread I am betting their team total over 24 points at vandal sportsbook over as minus 104 right now I will take the over on that and the big reason here is the patriots defense They're absolutely not what they once were once you adjust for schedule They rank 19th overall defensively according to number fires metrics and that's even while benefiting From force turnovers if you look at like a success rate model, I'd be interested in what you're gonna say about them They're likely even worse than that's 19th if you don't Over account for turnovers, but I'm sure a success rate model would be lower on them than that And it's just been hard to notice because they faced a lot of bad teams when they faced a top 10 passing offense They have led up 28 points per game so far this year Chargers ranked 9th in schedule adjusted passing offense based on number fires metrics They've gone over 24 points in 6 out of 10 games that justin herbert has started so far this year Two of the times they fell short were in uh road games on the east coast. This one isn't los angeles Basically, I just don't think the chargers defense or the patriots defense is very good And I think the chargers offense is so I'm okay considering the chargers money line here, but That's actually the same juice as you get on this number. It's minus 104 on the money line The juice on over 24 points is minus 104 This gives me an out in case they score points But then do the usual dumb chargers stuff at the end of the game with during game management So I want that out. I want that wiggle room. So I will go over 24 points on the chargers for week 13 I am not dealing with the shenanigans of the chargers coaching staff but ed Like I said, I think that the patriots defense probably grades out worse if you look at a success rate model What do your numbers say about them? That is true. They're 31st They're the second worst defense when uh, you take a success rate and adjust for who you play They're bad in my model in my methods. I think that uh, even if you look at like daily fantasy stuff like Sites are still bumping down salaries for players facing new england Cool, I'll take the discount like I think that's where we're at right now It's it's pretty evident by this point that the opt-outs hurt new england a lot And if you can still take advantage of that whether it be in the betting space or in dfs You should do exactly that. So chargers over 24 points and Hopefully, uh, the coaching staff does not get in the way of that late in the game That is all the time that we have for today and this week here on covering the spread big Thank you once again to Pamela Maldonado yesterday and Fabian somer today for breaking down college football and the nfl to get Pamela's uh episode go to covering the spread wherever you get your podcast Make sure you are subscribed to get it as we go live each and every week And also leave a rating and review if you like what you hear and what is going on for you this week over at the power rank Yes, so the power rank has a youtube channel Yeah, nice Martin's been doing videos uh every week. He breaks down college football games. Uh, he gives you what my model says Uh, and in addition to his own handicapping analysis So yeah, I have a youtube channel now. Uh, you can check it out. Uh, you can use the url the power rank dot us To check out the power rank youtube channel. Uh, who knows what else I'll end up doing over there, but um But yeah, that's uh, that's what's going on the power rank that us for the youtube channel Okay, perfect. So go there check out and drew martin's a super sharp guy So if we can combine the power rank and drew martin, I think that's something people should want to take advantage of Yeah, I should also mention that I had drew on my uh, my podcast uh this week So that was the second podcast I recorded this week with the uh, the liberty at coast of carolina game That is is not being played but it's still useful because I did ask him to break down byu Okay broke down cincinati as well Talked about whether auburn is uh in blue blood purgatory That was actually a pretty fun discussion on on both ends. Um, unfortunately, auburn is always fun What drew talking auburn is always fun. Yeah, absolutely. And he had a very, uh Mature attitude about it. Yeah. Um, so yeah, it was a fun conversation. Uh, I was listening I was listening back to it today. Yeah before we got in the show. I was like, yeah, I really talked a lot in this one, but Usually let the guest talk a little bit more, but you know, that's me every weekend So like I I know where you're coming from But the power rank dot us to get uh the youtube channel and the football analytic show Dear the conversation with drew there make sure you follow ed on twitter at the power rank I am at jim sonnis j i m s a n n e s You can also follow the fan to a podcast network at fan to a podcast our daily fantasy podcast Went up earlier today with myself and brandy kadula breaking down the week 13 main slate good running backs bad everything else So it should be a fun one for sure find that by searching for the number fire daily fantasy podcast feed big Thank you to calvin thea ball their video producer for running the video side of things here today Thank you cal as always and thank you to everyone for tuning in good luck with your bets across week 14 and college football On week 13 the nfl back again next week for more you're uncovering the spread This has been covering the spread right here on the fan dual podcast network