 The following is a presentation of TFNN. Power Trading Hour with your host, David White. Call now toll free at 1-877-927-6648 internationally at 727-445-1044. Now, David White. And welcome all to another exciting edition of Power Trading Hour with me, your humble, lovable, and squeezibly soft host. The following takes place between 2 p.m. and 3 p.m. A whole lot of nothing. Got a whole lot of nothing going on. NASDAQ's up 7, Dow's up 15. The S&P is down a half a point. Russell's off two and a half points. And it's the weakest of the bunch, but that's not saying much. We've got a lot of sideways action. And of course, the most important thing to me is tomorrow starts options expiration. That's when option market makers go delta neutral. If we look at what's out there right now, we are on the extreme upper bounds of what option market makers think. Now, that's going to change tomorrow. But it's been creeping and creeping to the point where there's not really much in the way, they're taking on a lot of risk if the market goes higher. And generally, if they think the market's going to go higher, of course, they'll shy away from that risk. Now, what you do have is the ability for the market to drop some, well, 200 points in the S&P cash or 20 points in the spies before you actually get to the crossover point and bearers actually start making some money. So they have very little belief that the market's going to go more than 10 points higher. So 2810, they have a lot of fear that the market could go down maybe as far as 260 on the SPY. So you've got a pretty large range before expiration a week from Friday. Now, could it hang up here? It can. Is it going to go higher? 90% chance that it probably doesn't go above 2810 on the actual S&P cash. Maybe 2815 would be kind of on the high rise. Now, maybe that changes. But today, just in the last 30 minutes, I think General Electric came out and dropped the Chalupa in the punch bowl by saying that they were going to have some real big problems going forward. Dropped about 7% or 8%. Now, the market kind of brushed it off. I don't think anybody thinks much of General Electric anymore. But what it really looks like is they're doing everything they can do to hold this market up into fund buying. And then, of course, that's pretty much over by tomorrow afternoon and that options roll over. So everything, at least to me, looks like this market's hanging at a high. And can you move higher after that? You can, but almost always it takes the market going sideways for a while before you can do that. Now, you can say that today. But again, unless something dramatically changes, the people that are best traders on the street, although they've taken a walloping the last five or six months, not so much last month, but the people that are supposed to be the best traders pretty much have to tell you in the options what they think they're going to do. And they don't think that there's much in the way of an upside. We'll update you tomorrow on that. I did these numbers right before the start of the show. But I kind of think that I am short. I have to kind of sit on my hands and look at it. But I suspect we're probably going to get a very big indication of what's going on. But it certainly looks like the market thinks that there's another shoe to drop. And that shoe dropping isn't going to be higher prices. It may be greatly lower prices. So anyway, that's kind of the news of the day with a market that's not moving very far. And again, you get a much better reading tomorrow because they will be going delta neutral right after about 10.30. They'll start moving to go delta neutral. And the idea is the risk is way too high to have options that you don't have both sides of, i.e. you want to sell guns to both sides of a war and if one starts getting a little edge on them maybe give a few extra ones to the other side. Because at this point, the option market makers, one thing is to make sure that the market just grinds to a stop as who's going to make money in the puts and the calls. They want to see them all go unexecuted a week from Friday. At least that's when they make the most amount of money. And of course, the biggest holders of stocks have the biggest option market maker businesses too, like Buffett. So we see that. Anyway, market volume was pathetic pretty much all morning. We haven't even crossed 4 billion shares as we start to show. We're at about 3.9. So even though the market got pushed down, we pushed it higher, but it certainly makes it look to me like every time it goes lower, we have a bunch of dip buyers. As soon as we get back to almost unchanged, it's a ghost town. Everybody wants to buy the dip. No one wants to buy the rip. And certainly, as soon as we go to unchanged, the volume comes to almost complete standstill. And of course, the volume that we get is mostly the downside the last four or five days. Anyway, is OPEX next week right? Yeah, it's the 18th, right? I think that's what it is. No, 15th. It's 18th in April. It's 15th this month in March. So we're going into options, exploration. They're at best. If you only think you can be bullish, I don't see that there's a lot of, they're not thinking that there's a lot of upside and possibly a great deal of downside. But again, they're not sure when we look at that. I mean, they, if they were sure that it was going down 100 points, man, they'd be selling calls all day long. Another thing is that generally the market gets a top and a lot of times you'll go back and push even higher because a lot of people get short and they just don't run those shorts and they run the shorts and they run the shorts and eventually the shorts give up at highs and that's when the markets fall. And you can kind of look and look at the book call ratio for yesterday and for both equities and the stocks and the VIX, it was about 60%, which is, you know, it's just kind of about almost 50-50. So there aren't a lot of people buying downside protection. That tells you that there is a lot of complacency in the market, certainly not a lot of bearers out there. And that also makes me wonder because you need those bearers to buy when the market tumbles. And if you don't have them there, you can get a much bigger and faster downside move. We'll be back in a minute. The Taz Profile Scanner is the most revolutionary piece of trading software that you will ever try. 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Sign up today. And greatly enrich your knowledge of these markets and how to make your money work for you. Details on The Tigers then are on the front page of tfnn.com. Tfnn has launched our brand-new website. You can still visit us at the same tfnn.com URL, but when you do, you'll see a new and improved homepage with a much simpler navigation, whether you're watching Tiger TV live in high definition or just accessing your newsletter subscriptions. We even have new pricing in six months and yearly options. Check out the new tfnn.com now and experience all the upgrades. tfnn.com, educating investors. Call now. Toll free at 1-877-927-6648. Internationally at 727-873-7618. It is nothing but history repeating. On this day in 1995, Yahoo Search Engine officially launches on the Internet, which is just a fad, as we all know. 13 months later, Yahoo will hold its IPO at a price of $13 a share. Yahoo's stock will peak at $475 in January of 2000 and fall to $8.02 in September of 2001. And that's called the fall from grace. Just amazing they actually stayed in business as far as I can tell. But certainly, if you want to look at the history of euphoria, the Internet is a wonderful place to go digging through the history of stocks that couldn't seem to go lower, only to end up going into the buzz saw and ending up on the ash heap of history as Yahoo did eventually. Okay, we'll keep, yeah, we're still basically flat hair. We'll take a look at volume. Again, just basically cresting four billion shares on the CBOE consolidated volume. And that's about it. What else do we have? We talked about mild closures yesterday. So that's pretty much it. Oh, I needed to have that, didn't I? Where is that? Why did that go over there? I'm gonna move it back here, get this back up and running. And there it is. We get it. Okay, as we said earlier, General Electric came out. It was down about 7% to 10%, fairly quickly, got down to $9.58. And I talk about this occasionally, maybe once or twice a year. And that is ETFs and fund managers generally have a... I'll call it a loose agreement. But it's in the charter of the ETF. And almost all of these guys, because of the way that they do risk management, has to make sure that the stocks are not below $10. Below $10 stocks do have a very big tendency to take big swings. And that really hurts the amount of leverage that a big fund can put on. Now, a lot of these funds may be leveraged anywhere from 10 to 30 times. So if they got a million dollars, they got $30 million out on the high side. Now, to do that, they have to basically go by a couple of rules that set up how you figure out what your volatility is going to be. And it's so astronomically high under $10 that if it stays under $10, that most of them in their charters say that they will sell them. So if you got somebody on the ropes, as I've always said that Wall Street, if you were drowning a Wall Street or would toss you an anvil, you're swimming with the sharks. And any time you get down to this level, it's not uncommon to beat on you and make sure that you stay under that $10 level because then all the funds have to sell. And if you're short the stock already and you know it's a dog, especially if you're a big guy on Wall Street, easy way to pick up maybe $0.50 on the dollar by just driving a $10 stock down to five bucks. And if you go back and look through the charts, just see how many stocks that were huge at one time, they get blown down below that $10 level and then all of a sudden start selling. Well, that's an organic reason for selling and not that they think that it ever won't be worth that again. But literally everybody else knows that if you're against the ropes, they can wash you out of that if you're an ETF. So a lot of times you'll see the ETFs do the opposite side, which is they'll spike it for just today and reset that three month clock going yet another time and to try to thwart the people that are going short. So $10 generally a good time to watch both bears and bulls duke it out for the ability to wash the long-term holders out right before the stock decides to turn. What else do we have going? You can give me call at 877-927-6648. You can email me at path at TFNN.com and of course you can put a message in the den. It's just a quiet day and a perfect day for you to give me a call because we can take all the time we need. So give me a ring. Anyway, what else do we have going on out here? I wanted to start looking at some charts again early on until we get some of your dulcetone listeners giving me a gentle ring at 877-927-6648. A couple of stocks looking a little bit finally washed out one of them is Carbonite the backup company. February 8th this thing came down. I think they got hit with a bunch of FTC stuff about the way they advertise and some other stuff. Anyway, February 8th $22.35 4.4 million shares you're back into that with 345,000 shares today. So about a tenth of the volume that probably tells you a great deal of what you need to know. If this thing can hold here you could go from $22 back up to $25, $26. I don't know, I'd have to do some more research on the company before I would do that but the volume is telling you that if you are short that it's probably time to pick up sticks. One of the other stocks that if this market did turn around I'm keeping an eye on but the energy on the way down was far too high and that's Cirrus 1, CONE is the symbol on this one. You had a 3 million share low on October 31st at $50.58. You tried to go below that on January 2nd at $49, popped right back into the trading range and again you tried the last couple of days and the best you've gotten is about 2 million shares but again that energy is a little bit too much so you probably want to wait for about 2 weeks to see if this thing can just go sideways and see some accumulation. What else do we have? Some stocks trying to bust out and go higher not doing much. Charles River Laboratories, CRL had a couple of, well the first high on November 7th had 700,000 plus shares. The last few days gone through this the best day it had was about 600,000 shares looks like you're going to close back into that trading range possibly in the next day or so and that would take you right back down to about 132. So what do you got now? 141. So looking fairly weak there's better ones out there but again just nobody finding a lot of people willing to dive on the grenade up at the previous highs. Got some questions here we'll go back to that oil's flat gold's down a buck silver's down up four cents platinum up 60 cents see if there's anything else out here I don't see much the dollar once again back up 96 dollars 76 cents on the March contract and man you want to talk about the Timex currency takes a licking and keeps on ticking there's I think a nuclear ice age would not hurt the dollar right now this thing looks like there's absolutely every time you hit below that 96 dollar level everybody's willing to dive on the grenade unlike they are on the market we'll be back in a minute I shall return the path of least resistance is David White's daily trading newsletter and if you're looking for active trading ideas then now's a perfect time for a 30 day free trial to this powerful daily trading advisory service David uses his years of trading experience to offer his subscribers his trading ideas each morning in his path of least resistance newsletter using a combination of equity trades along with options David keeps his subscribers up to date with all pertinent market information with intraday afternoon updates when warranted don't miss out on this great chance to get a 30 day free trial to David's daily newsletter the path of least resistance with no obligation to pay anything David has been delivering solid recommendations for his subscribers recently and if you'd like to see the type of newsletter he delivers every morning then visit the front page of TFNN and you'll find the path of least resistance under trading newsletters for all the details of the 30 day free trial today log on to TFNN.com now Hi folks, Tom O'Brien here If you'd like to get my daily newsletter and market insights then now is a great time to sign up for a 30 day free trial Every morning by 9.30 I send out my morning letter to subscribers with market commentary on a variety of markets, currencies and commodities to keep investors up to date on the day's trading action included in market insights are specific buy and sell recommendations for stocks, ETFs and even options for markets included for every trade in my newsletter If you'd like to try my newsletter risk free for 30 days then head over to the front page of TFNN and you'll find market insights under trading newsletters I use my years of trading experience to bisect and dissect the market every morning and give my subscribers the most important information they need to know for the day ahead I even issue afternoon updates for my subscribers whenever warranted with important market action I'm always scouring the market for the next great trading opportunity to see the market insights today by visiting the front page of TFNN.com Well, go get them folks! 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copy of The Art of Timing the Trade Charts today by visiting TFNN.com This segment is brought to you by Think or Swim For more information, just click the Think or Swim banner on the front page of TFNN.com And we're back So we're going to start looking at some other charts Somebody made a comment that reminded me earlier that there is a bill that's going to be introduced tomorrow that a one tenth of a percent tax on every single trade and as much as I'd hate that because you know that is only going to become bigger later especially because the people that are pushing it When I was a kid on Hawaii they wouldn't let us off the air base on May Day because there were so many communists there already Certainly someone that self identifies as a communist is pushing this bill so you almost have to hate it right off the bat but it would put an end to high frequency trading fairly quickly especially on expensive stocks it would cost and you know frankly there's I think a lot of market distortions for it it wouldn't be bad but I think there's a better way to do it without putting a tax on it and letting the camel get its nose underneath the edge of the tent and that is just do it the way that IEX does IEX is that the right exchange I think it is I'll have to remember it but they have a giant reel of fiber optic cable and everybody it's basically the cheapest delay that no one can get around everybody tried to do it electronically and they figured that it would be too easy for people to try to game the system so everybody that trades on that IEX system has to go through a I think it's 32 miles a fiber optic line and it's about 25 grand worth they got a special company to make it for them but at least it gives everybody the exact same delay and therefore if you put an order in you know you've got whatever it is the second I think it's a third of a second that could get executed so you're not going to quote stuff the system like you certainly would anywhere else and again you could make a high frequency trader's day pretty rough if they had to pay a tenth of a percent on every trade that means that that would be about three times that amount would be very interesting $100 stock if you're only paying a dime to trade the shares or something in scale a 50% add-on to that or even another dime would pretty much take out all the incentive to do high frequency trading but I'd like it to do it either way I'll call it 877-927-6648 four-scout technologies trying to go above its previous two million share high on September 21 kind of hanging up here today fairly light volume got to $43.99 certainly looks like it may hold 41 before the close of 42.61 but no sign of strength and again 2 million to 1 million for all the pot heads out there GW Pharmaceuticals I think we talked a little bit about this yesterday certainly the $179.65 high of September 27 for this with 2.3 million shares got tested with 1 million shares yesterday you're back into that trading range again it did go above it and you're not getting much here today I don't know if this is one that I would short but if you were thinking about going long certainly looks like this get down to 152 to 164 probably at least 160 is where you'd probably first start wanting to look at this the only legal marijuana company out there though that was it let's see if we've got any emails so far today I think I forgot to actually turn that on maybe we've got something here just a quiet day HDV which is something you don't want to look at HRC Hillrom Holdings another one that spiked the previous high this one was 105 74 which is the January 24 25th high I had 1.84 million shares got into it yesterday with 449,000 shares and that's it so the first email of the day is to take a look at CRM and what happened it was open kind of lower after the bell last night down to about 150 it's gotten a little bit better today but certainly was drifting off earlier highs and again you have to kind of watch the stock because Kramer has a couple of stocks that he will literally gush over and prostrate and chill himself for over the years he's run a lot of stocks up to ludicrous high values but I kind of feel like I got to take a shower after he does an interview with the CEO of Salesforce because it's just it's just sickening I guess that's the best way to put it oh anyway I'm feeling a little nauseous just talking about it anyway down a little bit today doesn't have anything to do with the company just journalistic ethics I think about the way you treat a particular company is my issue anyway Kramer this is a pump from him I wasn't surprised it was earlier up to like 159 when I looked at it down today you do have a little bit more volume support comes in about 147.07 first quarter is going to be weak which is kind of the story of the entire market the IVV which is the S&P index fund did go and retest its previous high yesterday of the December 3rd high one let's see what is that 282.58 that was 5.9 million shares got into 4.8 million shares closed back in again light volume at the highs but to me the bigger issue is just the lack of energy off these December 24th and 26 lows this case went to a little bit lower low on December 26th and came back up but there just isn't any energy to go any further with it okay so we're still flat on the S&P up a little on the down now up 30 points to do we talked a bit last week about the trains the choo-choo's all hitting highs and not having a lot of juice we'll talk more about Kansas City Southern when we return I shall return if you're in the CD market and looking for a secure investment the Tiger First mortgage program may work for you the security for these first mortgages are building lots in the tax opportunity zone in St. Petersburg, Florida the tax act of 2018 set up tax free zones where you can build and hold for 10 years and pay no tax on the profits which makes these lots valuable the investment is anywhere from 30,000 to 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investment in the funds is subject to risk including the possible loss of principal the funds are designed to be utilized only by sophisticated investors such as traders and active investors distributor for side fund services LLC don't forget you can listen to TFNN live on your mobile device 24 hours per day as well as for the latest market information and we are talking about KSU and there's a CSX we'll look at that one next We had a test of January 18th, 111.09 we went to 1278 with half the volume on February 20th. Now you're coming back up. And this is exactly where you're gonna start getting some signals. That would be if you wanted to pull the trigger on this short, now that you're back up above the nine day, the next close below the nine day would be the indication to pull the trigger for the shorts. So you only need this thing to go down a little bit before it should have a fairly decent fail with a and or an incredibly tight stop because you shouldn't have it really go back and make new highs. So fairly low risk trades in this. CXX had a eight and a half million share eye on December 3rd, that was 73.90 with eight and a half million shares. The best you could get was about seven million shares. This one never actually took out the high, that December 3rd high. So you're just kind of hanging out here on the side, but certainly no volume the last handful of days. But just going sideways, but certainly KSU has the better pattern of the two. Little LILI, Liberty Global, a light volume test of the November 8th high that had 742,000 shares with 280,000 shares yesterday. Again, probably better things out there to short than this. But again, just, I could probably get a couple of hundred stocks like this every day now of very little. Light coming back, trying to fill its gap with no juice whatsoever. This gap down on 17.8 million shares back on the 12th of November, got into it with 2.4 million shares on February 1st. Again, on February 25th, with 1.6 million shares, rotating downward today. What do you think of the electric car market in China? They've got massive amounts of pollution in fact, 90% of the world's air pollution comes from China. I don't know how many people think that. All we've done by putting laws here in the United States is make sure that we're not producing that pollution. This is just all we did was ship it all over to China. So we can feel good about ourselves that it's not here, but you know what? The air kind of goes everywhere around the world. So it's not like we got rid of it. We just moved it to somewhere where we can't see it. And we can feel good about ourselves and see a lot of people out of work. Probably the better thing would have been a trade deal that actually said that just because we're moving over to yours, you can't then just ignore all environmental regulation so that was a level playing field. So is there a big market potentially for an electric car market there is? But how many times have I said this that China is where companies go to die? Because everybody thinks they're gonna go over there, take a lot of money out and drag it back here. And that's the last thing that any of the Chinese in power over there are gonna let you do. They'll let one or two companies make a little money for a little while and then they'll come and crush you. There's literally they may be the most racist people in the world, but it seems kind of weird because we kind of flagellate ourselves a lot here in the States, but man, you put North Korean or not a North Korean, just a Korean Chinese person and a Japanese person in a room, they're probably gonna kill each other. There's so much hate and animosity between the two. They don't like us any better either. Individually, you go in there, they'll be nice to you, but they've taken racism to a new level. I don't know if it's that they really believe it or it just makes sense and makes it easier from them to do probably less than ethical things financially. That's the latter is probably the truth, but it is problematic and I think the only company actually saying that they're doing anything now is Kentucky Fried Chicken. They'll let us send food stuffs to them, but that's about it, anything else, Boeing, I think all these people are just getting into a tar pit. I don't think there's much going on out there. Chip Hollywood. Well, certainly there certainly is those issues. Anyway, Lumamit, Holings, L-I-T-E, big rollover today. And yes, somebody emailed me about something here and it, yes, I have been to China. I've been to Vietnam. Last week when everybody was talking about being in Vietnam, I thought it was funny because I found like four bugs in the room that I found, I know there were more when I stayed there and that was in the late 90s. But I don't know. Okay, what else do we get? It was still KFC secret sauce. Who knows? M-E-T, we'll continue to look at that, met life. But yeah, they're not gonna give us a straight deal unless they're absolutely forced to do it, which is why I think the trade deal is gonna take forever. And forever, I mean another year, but it'll seem like forever. Met life banging around its $46 range. It's been doing that for a while. Again, certainly a much lighter volume in these than the November 14th and December 3rd highs. And not a lot of juice, but it is hanging up there. My guess is that a lot of these companies just hanging up here are thinking that maybe they'll be picked as the company to be owned if the market does rotate lower, kind of a safety stocks. RHI, which is a Robert Half International. This one made what looks like a fairly decent double top, 3 million shares on January 30th, 67. 90, 6901, two days ago, and 1 million shares. So came in with third of the previous high. Volume really hasn't done much yet, but I suspect again with the options rollover starting the options rollover. Options delta neutral, I almost said it again. Thank you, do that. With options delta neutral day coming tomorrow, you certainly could see maybe the peak come in there. Republic services, another test on light volume yesterday. Talk more about that as I return. 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Retail clothing, retail stores, retail, retail, retail. And so I don't think that's gonna matter much to the broader market or move it. Ambarella may do a little bit to the SMHs. Republic Services, we were talking about this when we left, test on less than half the volume of the December 4th high at 78.54, and you had 4.4 million shares yesterday and 1.2 million shares. So basically not much going on there. So, yeah, just seeing somebody outside and what they're doing out there. Okay, so what do we have? We certainly have that. Oh, we want to look at the SMHs while we had just a minute left here. I mean, you just come into that distribution line where the SMHs started 7th of September and ran all the way through the 3rd of October before it fell apart. You're just going up to that right now. You never really had the sign of strength that you were looking for. Your last big volume day was back on the 24th of January with 2.6 million shares. Again, a lot of these stocks, if you want getting ready to pull the trigger on them, just need to close below the nine-day moving average, and that's going to give you a double repo to an Appley pattern. Anyway, we'll see you here tomorrow. Same bad channel, same bad time. Remember to sell when you can, not when you have to.