 Hey everyone, this is Dan with another episode of my weekend reviews I'm a firm believer of combining fundamental analysis with technical analysis to get the best returns for my investments In this video, I'll talk about the main economic and geopolitical issues Driving the market recently. I will then get into the charts for SPY QQQ TMV UCO UNG UGA WEAT, COPX and CPER Let's get into the details. I'd like to also remind you to subscribe to my Twitter account Which is Dan market L by way of my Twitter account I share with my subscribers almost on a daily basis some of my trades as well as any significant news developments related to the stocks or ETFs that I invest in for example on May 27th I tweeted that I saw two-thirds of my UCO that I bought on May 19th, and I realized a 9.5 percent gain I sold it because UCO was pulling back at the upper Bollinger band and I plan to buy again at a lower price On May 25th I tweeted that since the May GDP price index was posted to be at 8% on that day And that was higher than the April index of 7.1 percent I believe the May CPI which is even a more important indicator which will be posted on June 10th Will most likely be higher than April's 8.3 percent and that'll have a bearish impact on the market And on May 24th I tweeted that I saw my S3Q at the average of 2.6 percent gain Because I was anticipating a rebound to happen and sure enough the market has rebounded in the last few days But overall, I'm still bearish about the market in the next few months I will explain more in the next few minutes if you like what you've seen so far I'd like to encourage you to click the like subscribe and notification button. Thank you very much Let's continue. What are the main issues driving the market recently? First of all because of the high inflation rate, which is currently at 8.3 percent at the highest level in the last 40 years we do have an inflation problem now and Because of the high inflation rate the Federal Reserve banks have been compelled to raise interest rates In order to lower the inflation in the meanwhile the Fed will also be reducing the total assets And of course unfortunately because of the Ukraine war it has caused a lot of supply chain issues and caused a lot of human suffering Recently there's an outbreak of the Omicron variant in China which caused the lockdown of Shanghai and several major cities in China The Ukraine war and the China COVID lockdown have Accessibated the supply chain issues that have been around for the last six months to a year Which has been a very strong bearish influence on the market What are we with inflation as of March? 2022 the inflation rate as measured by CPI was at 8.5 percent in April The CPI was a little bit lower 8.3 percent, but not much lower and The May CPI will be posted on June 10th my expectation that it'll be at at least 8.1 to 8.3 percent that means it'll be pretty bearish for the market Recently it was reported that the Fed officials have been saying that they may have to restrictive levels For interest rates in order to control inflation and the net effect would be that the higher interest rates would weaken the economy Which is really not surprising to me because as early as May 11th the former chairman of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York Mr. Bill Dudley already said that the Fed funds rate might have to go to as high as six percent in order for the Inflation rate to be brought down to two to three percent when I posted the video on May 22nd I look into the interest rates as well as inflation rate during 1970s When the inflation rate was above eight percent during that time the Fed funds rate went to as high as 12.9% and the CPI went from 3.6 percent to 8 percent and all the way up to 12.3 percent before it was brought under control Unfortunately, what eventually brought down the inflation rate, of course was the higher interest rate But actually the last bit of change that really pushed down the inflation rate was the rising unemployment rate which went from 5.1 percent to 9 percent I'm pretty sure that unemployment rate will increase from the current 3.6 percent and Definitely the Fed funds rate will definitely go higher than just two or three percent probably do six or eight percent Before the CPI can be brought down to two to three percent That's why I am bearish for the next few months as far as the market is concerned Let's look at the Fed funds rate the Fed already had two rate hikes in the last couple months Currently the Fed funds rates is at point a three percent But it's still very low compared to the historical level and according to the Fed they will raise the rate by half a percentage point in June another half percentage point in July and also additional 1.25 percent by the middle of 2023 with all these increases it will only bring up the Fed funds rate to about three to three and a half percent and again My expectation is that the Fed funds rate will go up to as high as six to eight percent before the inflation can be brought within range That's why I've been investing in the TMV ETF As far as the Fed total assets the Fed total assets had really zoomed up since the pandemic From about four trillion dollars to nine trillion dollars In the last two three months it has flattened off and according to the Fed they will start decreasing The Fed total asset at the tune of forty seven point five billion dollars a month in the month of June July and August And starting in the month of September the total assets will be decreasing at a rate of 95 billion dollars a month so there will be a lot of liquidity being taken out of the market and Because of that the inflation rate is expected to go down when there's less money in circulation Chasing the same amount of goods and services But unfortunately the stock market will most likely be heading down because of a decrease in liquidity With regard to the ukraine war the european nations have been working together to try and reduce their reliance on russian oil and natural gas And because of the ban on russian oil The export of oil from russia has already dropped 26 percent and as a supply of oil decreases The price of oil has been shooting up And that's why i've been trading oil related etfs such as uco and also natural gas related etf such as ung and gasoline related etf uga The ukraine war has also driven up wheat prices Why because russia and ukraine are two of the world's biggest exporters of wheat And that's why i picked the wheat etf weat In the meanwhile the lockdown in shanghai is about to gradually open up starting in the month of june So hopefully that'll happen With the reopening of shanghai and other major cities in china That will relieve the stress in the worldwide supply chain It will also cause the commodity prices to go up And that's the reason why i've picked copper related etfs c o p x and c p y Overall my strategy is to make profit in spite of the fact that the market will be bearish in the next few months Is that i'll be trading tmv the etf pegged to treasury yields uco related to oil ung related to natural gas uga related to gasoline And weat related to wheat these four etfs are all related to the ukraine war And we need to be very agile when we trade these war related etfs because the moment There's news that there might be a peaceful settlement in ukraine the value of these etfs will drop quickly It'll be great news for humanity if there's an end to the war But for investors who have money in these etfs they better move fast They need to move out of it and cash out the profit before the values of these etf start to drop quickly And then of course the inverse etfs s triple q and s p x s will be going up if the market continues to go down Us related to the china covid reopening I believe cp er and c o p x the copper related etfs will be going up If you look at these etfs that i've focused on and look at their performance since the beginning of the year You can see that sp y has gone down 13 q q q down 23 And the etfs that i picked have been pretty much going up Especially for example u ng went up 131 u c o 109 These two etfs close to the bottom are the copper related etfs They haven't really gone up much yet. Although they did pick up quite a bit since May 9th They will continue to pick up more as shanghai and the other cities in china start to reopen Let's look at sp y the etf picked to the movement of smp 500 In the chart i have drawn some additional lines including the blue dash line That's the 50 day exponential moving average the yellow dashed line 100 day ema The purple dashed line 150 ema and the red dashed line 200 ema I have also drawn the bowlenger bands as well as the rsi dmi and ma cd indicators On my screen here i'm showing three charts for sp y The left one is the hourly chart the middle one is a daily chart and the right one is the Weekly chart if you look at the rsi value for the hourly chart is very high That means most likely sp y when the market opens on tuesday it might pull back for at least first few hours If you look at the weekly chart since the end of last year the market has been trending down Definitely that's a bearish pattern other than the last week There's quite a bit of a pickup and if you look at the candlestick pattern here For the weekly candlestick pattern It's showing a bullish one white soldier pattern and that's a bullish thing However because of the macroeconomic issues and the fat actions that we discussed a few minutes ago I think overall the market is still going to be bearish in the next few months But we still have trading opportunities For long or short positions in the coming weeks. We'll discuss more If you look at the daily chart in date has been going up for 1 2 3 consecutive days As far as the resistance level, I expect the next level of resistance at the upper bowling japan of 424 And at 429, which is this level and then of course the next level will be here 436 For support level the next level support will be at around 407 here the historical line And then the next level support will be the middle of the bowling japan 403 And then the next level support will be right around here 398 and then 386 And then finally the recent bottom of 380.5 If SPF if SPY is going to drop below the 380.5 level the intraday bottom Definitely that will be a very bearish scenario and SPY will most likely be going down another 3 to 5 percentage points before the next rebound Let's look at QQQ the ETF pick to the movement of the NASDAQ 100 For QQQ similar to the SPY the hourly RSI value is very high That means there will be a pullback in the next few trading hours when the market opens on Tuesday And again it's been very bearish since the beginning of the year Although there's a green candle here during the last week that's the positive signal For resistance levels from the daily chart you can see that there will be fairly strong resistance at 318 here and then the upper bowling japan around 324 And then the next level resistance will be here 329 For support the next level support will be certainly at the middle of the bowling japan 20 days simple moving average of 302 and then the next level down will be right here at 290 And then of course this recent bottom of 280 will be a strong support level And if QQQ drops below 280 that will be a very bearish signal When QQQ hits the upper bowling japan or start to come back down at the 318 level here I will most likely buy SQQQ to swing trade the market If I do that I will be sharing that information with my Twitter subscribers Let's look at TNV the ETF pegged to the 20 year treasury yield For TNV the daily RSI is only at about 48 which is a fairly low level looking at the historical trend So this might be a good opportunity to buy TNV especially considering that the Fed will most likely continue to increase interest rates If you look at the daily chart it's approaching the lower bowling japan which will supply very strong support If you look at the support levels definitely at the current level actually it's been struggling around this 92 93 level if it continue to rebound from the support then we'll of course see some resistance at the next level which will be right around here 97 and then the next level of resistance will be at 100 which is the middle of the bowling japan and then next level of resistance will be at 102 here and then the next level will be 108 upper bowling japan let's look at UCO the three times oil ETF with UCO the chart is a little bit complicated because of the recent four to one split that happened a couple days ago that caused the bowling japan to get really wacky if you translate the current price after the split at 47.29 to the pre-split price the current price level based on the oil price will be right here which is really hitting the upper bowling japan that means the price might be pulling back in the next few days if you look at support level after translating the current price to the oil price we will see support most likely at 178 the oil level which will be the 44.5 level based on the new price and then for resistance level the next level of resistance will definitely be the all-time height of the previous price at 205 which translates to the new price of 51 52 that will be a very strong resistance let's look at UNG the natural gas ETF for UNG on a daily chart you can see that last Friday it rebounded after it scratched the middle of the bowling japan and that's why after I sold the shares for a profit I already bought back more shares for resistance the next level of assistance we're actually right at the resistance line here about 30 and then the next level up will be at about 32 which is the upper bowling japan and the previous peak that will be a very strong resistance for support the next level support of course will be the middle of the bowling japan and the next level support will be at 26 here and then at 24 the lower bowling japan let's look at UGA the gasoline ETF for UGA we are at all-time high at this point and if you look at the hourly RSI it's really high at 81 that means there might be a pullback in the next few trading hours I haven't bought UGA yet and I'll most likely wait for the price to pull back until it starts to recover then I will buy in the next level resistance will be in the Fibonacci extension territory so I've drawn the Fibonacci extension diagram and looking at this the next level of resistance will be at Fibonacci 23% and the price level will be at around 78 79 and then the next Fibonacci level will be at 83 if UGA will continue to go up in the next few days which is not likely because it's already hitting the upper bowling japan it might just go above that for a couple more days and it will most likely come down for support level the next level of support will be at the middle of the bowling japan at 67 and then the next level support will be around here which is the 50 day moving average of 62.5 it also coincidentally is around the lower bowling japan so that will be a very strong support let's look at the wheat ETF for the wheat ETF recently it's being supported at the middle of the bowling japan and that's when I bought it a couple days ago and it's still struggling to get above the middle of the bowling japan it's a little bit above it at this point and if you look at the resistance levels the next level of resistance is 11.9 the next level of resistance will be here 11.9 and then the next level up will be the upper bowling japan at 12.4 and then the all-time high of 12.7 will be a strong resistance for support the next level support will be at again 11.3 the middle of the bowling japan and then 10.4 around here and then 9.4 at this line let's look at COPX the copper minor ETF for COPX the only RSI is fairly high at about 61 to 65 I bought COPX a few days ago and currently I'm looking at six percent paper gain already in the next few days when COPX hits the upper bowling japan it will most likely pull back for a couple days and that's when I would sell to cash in my profit then I will buy it again when it starts to rebound probably around the middle of the bowling japan as China reopens the next level of resistance will be at 41 here the upper bowling japan and then the next level of resistance will be around here 43 and then the next level up will be 45 here and then finally the recent peak of 47 will be a strong resistance for support the next level of support will be the middle of the bowling japan at around 38 and then here 36.5 another level of support and then at the bottom of the bowling japan there will be a strong support at 34 let's look at CPER the copper ETF CPER has similar pattern like COPX because they are both copper related and if you look at CPER the hourly RSI is actually pretty low so this might be a good time to start buying CPER I haven't bought CPER yet but I'll seriously consider buying this ETF in the next couple days looks like it's getting supported at a 20 day simple average which is the middle of the bowling japan the next level of resistance will be right around here 26.5 and then the next level up will be the upper bowling japan around 27 and then the next level of resistance will be here 27.5 and then here around 28 for support the next level of support will be certainly the middle of the bowling japan 25.7 and then 25 and then the intraday low of 24.5 this wraps up my video for now I like to remind you that I'm not a financial advisor I share my analyses and stock trading strategies for educational and entertainment purposes only if you want to buy or sell stocks you should definitely make your own decisions and you should consult with your financial advisors before you do so I'll chat with you again in the next few days in the meanwhile I'd like to wish you the very best of luck with your financial investments