 Good afternoon ladies and gentlemen. I think I'll get the ball rolling on the first non-farm payrolls webinar of 2022. Happy New Year to everybody. I hope you all had a restful Christmas break and happy New Year. Omicron restrictions notwithstanding. Today's payrolls report I think is going to be important for a number of reasons, which I'll go into in more detail in a minute. First and foremost, I need to get a few housekeeping slides out of the way. Disclaimers and what have you. But hopefully be able to shed some light on where the markets are likely to go over the course of the next few weeks and months against what so far this week has been a little bit of a divergent week for equity markets in general. I think one of the things that struck me and I only started back in the office on the Wednesday is it's been a week of two halves. European markets had a really decent start to the week on Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday got off to a really decent start. But US markets have struggled, notably the NASDAQ. So this divergence was given a little bit of an added boost, if you like, by the Fed minutes on Wednesday. And to be honest, I'm really struggling as to why the markets reacted the way that they did because obviously the Fed met in December. They announced the tapering of their asset purchase program, which was broadly as expected. But this week, concerns about higher US rates have really, I think, impacted on the initially positive start that we saw on Monday and Tuesday. The S&P 500 hit a record high on Monday, since slipped back quite considerably. We've seen the DAX hit a record high this week. We've seen the FTSE 100 break above 7,400, goes higher 75-30. It's still up on the week is the FTSE 100 as is the DAX. However, US markets aren't. And given events on Wednesday and the markets reaction to the rather hawkish interpretation of the Fed minutes, you'd be forgiven for thinking that maybe today's payrolls numbers don't really matter that much. And that may be a little bit contentious. But to my mind, from the tone that we've seen from various Fed policy makers, there does appear to have been a shift in the thinking amongst Fed officials that they are now much more concerned about inflation and less concerned about the US labor market. And there's a good reason for that. Obviously, if you look at the US labor market and you look at what we're expecting today, if we look at the market calendar, which you can find under news and analysis, we can see that the unemployment rate is at 4.1% or 4.2% rather. It's expected to fall again today to 4.1%. If we look at the November payrolls number, that was a little bit disappointing. But that came in at 210,000. And may I remind you that we're expecting around about half a million, 500,000 new jobs to be added in November. Nonetheless, that didn't stop the Federal Reserve from accelerating the winding back of its taper program. The expectation was for 550,000 jobs in November. We came in at 210,000. The unemployment rate, as I said, fell back. The participation rate, that's I think really the big number, and it's not displayed on this particular calendar here. But before the pandemic struck, US participation, labor force participation was 63.7%. And that's the percentage of the US adult population that are in work or are available to work. So underneath the pension age, 63.7%. That is now down at 61.8%. So 1.9% were 1.9% lower in terms of available workforce for the US than we were pre-pandemic. Now there could be any number of reasons for that. 1.9% more people could have decided to retire. We've got over 10 million US vacancies, jobs that basically US employers cannot fill. There's an expectation that today's jobs report could well be a fairly decent one. The jobs report comes up to the period up to and including the middle of December. So it's around about 14th, 15th of December that this jobs report covers the period for. So it covers the entire period between Thanksgiving and Christmas where you would expect to see a big, big jump in temporary hiring. The head of the Thanksgiving and Christmas period, companies like Walmart, Amazon, FedEx, UPS or higher extra people to basically deal with increased online delivery capacity as well as increased turnover in terms of US retail sales. Now, obviously hospitality and leisure will be a part and parcel of that. And one of the reasons why the November payrolls number was so disappointing was hospitality and leisure didn't add any jobs whatsoever to the payrolls number. So the bigger question that I'm asking and was asking or posing in my report this morning was whether or not we see an awful lot of rebound in that. Because of a relaxation of Omicron restrictions and what have you. Now, does that mean that the January jobs report, which will cover the period up to and including the middle of January, will see a slowdown because of the fact that a number of US states imposed restrictions in the lead up to Christmas and after Christmas. So the jobs data at the moment is really flaky, which begs the question, can it be used as a reliable indicator as to what the Fed's intentions, the Federal Reserve's intentions are likely to be. And I would argue that unless it's a really, really bad number. It's not going to change the timetable that much when it comes to the first Fed rate hike. Now I know the markets are pricing in a possibility that we could see a move in March. And that's certainly a concern. But if we look at the US 10 year yield. It's basically jump back to the levels that it was in March last year, just before the March payrolls report or the February payrolls report. And it's also just below the 200 week moving average. Now there's no question that yields are going up. We can see that from this US 10 year chart here. But we're now coming into a very, very key level for US Treasury yields, especially on the 10 year. Now on a technical basis, I've got to ask myself one particular question. Is the first rate rise already priced into the market? I would argue that it is. The big question is whether it comes in March or whether it comes later than that. And today's payrolls report could play into that narrative. But I think it's going to be very, very difficult to argue that long term rates can go much above where they are now. When the Fed funds rate is of the upper bound of the Fed runs rate is 0.25%. You're talking a 1.8% 10 year rate. You're looking at a 10 year, a two year, which is above around about 0.85. And a five year, which is around about 1.45. So the market is pricing in an awful lot of Fed rate hikes. And I would suggest that maybe they're pricing in too many. They're already suggesting that we could see three this year and three next year. Now, three next year, three this year, four this year, I would argue is a bit of a stretch. Yes, inflation is high. And we've got US CPI next week. And I think that more than anything is likely to be a key arbiter of whether or not the Federal Reserve decides whether or not it's going to go in March rather than today's payrolls report. And if we look at today's, sorry, this week's ISM prices paid data for December. Manufacturing saw a big, big drop in inflationary pressures in December, while the services side of it saw prices stay fairly elevated. So what you're seeing is a mixed picture when it comes to inflationary pressures for say, for example, December and US CPI next week is expected to move above 7%. Just think about that for a minute. US CPI was 6.8% in November. It's expected to move to 7.1% in December, excluding food and energy. It's still around about 4.7, 4.8 and could go above 5. So I think next week CPI is probably going to be a bigger driver of yields than today's non-farm payrolls. That's not to say that the payrolls data isn't important, it is. But what I'm going to be looking, paying particular attention to, it's less about the headline number, which could be anything between 250 and 750. 750 is going to be very good and could mean that we're going to get a hike in March as opposed to June. But nonetheless, I think we're still going to get a hike. It's really just a question of when it comes and whether or not the Fed will be able to do any more going forward. And I think that feeds into a narrative more than anything else as to what can we expect the dollar to do when we're looking at terms of interest rate rise expectations. There's been pretty much broad consensus that Fed is going to hike rates sometime this year for around about the last three or four weeks. Since then the dollar's barely gone anywhere. If we look at this particular piece of price action here, we've actually been in a sideways consolidation with a fairly strong base in and around these lows here on the dollar index. But also declining peaks all the way through here. So we're range trading on the dollar index and I don't expect today's payrolls report to change that, which brings me neatly on to euro dollar, because for me, euro dollar is a very decent proxy for the dollar index. I mean, 57% of the dollar index is the euro anyway. So let's look at the key levels on euro dollar one 1385 is the big, big resistance level. So what's going to take us higher on euro dollar? Well, a weak payrolls report, but even if it does, I don't think we're going to go much above one 1385, which means the weaker side is the downside. So the downside on euro dollar, we're probably going to find this fairly decent support between one 1250 and one 1260 on a decent payrolls number. And even if we do move lower, it's going to take quite something significant to push us below the lows that we saw either in December or in November. For me, again, it's next week CPI data that I think is likely to move the markets more than today's payrolls report. So irrespective of how today's report comes out, you know, and I could be wrong about this completely. I don't think we're going to get much in the way of a breakout of the range that we've been in in euro dollar over the course of the past three or four weeks. It's just not the market driver that it used to be. But what it does do this, this webinar is it gives me a great opportunity to talk to you guys, certainly in terms of what the markets are doing at the moment. If I look at the FTSE 100, I'm still fairly bullish on the FTSE 100. Those of you who've been regular listeners of these these webinars will know that I thought the FTSE 100 was going to go to 7400. We're now above that. I think we can go higher. I think we can head towards 7600 7800. We have significantly underperformed over the course of the past couple of years. And I think there's potential for the FTSE 100 to play catch up. But only if we hold above 7400. We can see a clear delineation there clearly. Nice area of support earlier this week. Yesterday we bounced off 7400. We could drop as low as 7360. But overall, I'm still of the opinion that the FTSE still looks fairly positive. What I'm more concerned about is the S&P and the NASDAQ sideways consolidation here. The NASDAQ is a worry because it's only being held up by the big caps. I'm just going to basically draw your attention to this article on Bloomberg. The number of NASDAQ stocks down 50% or more is almost a record. 40% of the indexes firms have fallen by half from one year highs. So if 40% have fallen by 40% or more, what's holding the NASDAQ up? Well, it's Apple, it's Alphabet, it's Microsoft, it's Amazon. It's all the big caps that are holding the NASDAQ up. You only need to see two or three, four of those to start rolling over. And you'll see a big break of 15500 and potentially this trend line here. But for now, the trend still remains very much to the upside. But we do need to be aware that this could potentially be a double top in the making. It's only a double top if we break below the previous lows and this trend line. And then you take a measured move lower, which in this case is not very big because you've got 15500 minus 16660. A breakdown will take us back to around about 14,000 or so. So even then it's not a particularly big move. Nonetheless, we still remain above some key support levels on the NASDAQ and the S&P 500. So even if we get a disappointing number, the likelihood is we could actually go higher. If we get a really decent number, then you might get a little bit of nervousness because yields could go up and the NASDAQ could take a beating back to support. So a fairly decent number would be a number in the region or obviously above 700 or 800,000 ADP this week came in at 800,000. Keep an eye on the November revision as well because the November revision up from 210 could actually also help drive the market as well. And when we've had low numbers in the past, we've usually seen big upward revisions as well. But overall, as I say, I don't expect today's payrolls report to drive things too much unless we get an outlier number. So we get 900,000 on the upside, for example, which some people have been calling for, 900,000 to a million new jobs. President Biden is due to speak later today. Is that an indicator that today's report is a good report? Yeah, well, it's hard to say. When I tweeted about that, I was informed, reliably informed that he's spoken after every single jobs report since May. The difference being is that hasn't been flagged before by the news wise. So, you know, he already knows what the numbers are. He already knows what the numbers are. So why has it been flagged even though it's never been flagged before, apart from one occasion back in May? Are we going to get a good number? I don't know. But there's no question that the US labor market is tight. And I'll also be paying particular attention to the wages numbers. They're around about 4.8% on an annual basis, average hourly earnings. They're expected to fall to 4.2% as a lot of cheaper roles get added back into the employment mix. So that will bring the average wages numbers down. But there's still well below the average level of inflation. So there's still an income squeeze going on. So to recap, before we get started, just quickly do cable, because cable has had a decent recovery as well. Decent resistance around about 136. So it's going to take something substantive to push through 136. Big resistance there. We're also starting to roll over on the oscillator. But there's also decent support in an around 134.20. So I'm not expecting us to break out of the range on the currency side of things in the short to medium term. In terms of gold, if we get a big push up in gold, push up in yields, then gold is likely to head back towards this trend line here that I've outlined. It's already got big resistance at 1834, 1830. So keep an eye on that. A decent number could push yields higher, push gold lower. And while we finally get ready to release the numbers, let me just quickly recap as to what we're expecting. 450 is the consensus number on payrolls. And we have got the Canadian numbers out, but we don't have the US numbers yet. Average earnings, that's quite a decent number, 4.7. That's better than expected. So markets will react to that. That's fairly decent number, 199. That's a really disappointing number. So markets are reacting to that, the disappointing headline number and the weak revision as well, 249 on the revision. So once again, we've seen a divergence between the ADP report earlier this week. And the non-farm payrolls number 210 to 249 on the revision as well. So it's not particularly great number on the headline number, but if we look at the unemployment rate, that's 3.9%. So that's again a fairly decent number. And the labor force participation rate has moved up to 61.9. So once again, we've disappointed on the headline, but every other metric is fairly solid. So the dollar is weakening on the back of that, and I'm not sure it should be. I think now we're starting to get a little bit of a bid coming back into the dollar. As a consequence, as the market suddenly digested the fact that the unemployment rates dropped to 3.9%, wages are actually higher. The previous month has been revised upwards, and the participation rate is coming at 61.9. So while the headline number is disappointed, everything else is pretty decent. And I would argue it's fairly dollar-positive, not dollar-negative. And that's certainly been borne out by the way that Eurodollar has reacted. And we should now see a quick move, as you can see here, in the five-minute chart on Eurodollar. The market's reacted to the really disappointing headline number and then got absolutely battered, because the rest of the report is fairly positive. Unemployment, wages, participation rate. Does that mean that we're going to get a significant move up or down over the course of the next few hours? No. The unemployment rate, this payrolls report is not market-moving enough for me. The focus now shifts to next week's CPI numbers. Looking at what the bond market is doing, the bond yield has gone up to 174.08. Let me just bring that up for you. So we've seen the US 10-year. Let me just change that to a daily chart. There we go. So we're retesting the highs of yesterday. We look at a slightly shorter term. There we go. Let's just make it one day. So you saw the initial move lower there in yields with the headline number, and now we're back higher again because of the decent wages numbers and the fall in the unemployment rate. So typical set of numbers, some good, some bad. I'm going to have to sort of dig around in the guts of the numbers to really, I think, get a really decent look under the bonnet. It's something that I don't really have the time to do while I'm talking to you guys. But as we digest those numbers and we look ahead to next week's CPR report, what it doesn't do is change the overall narrative of when the next, when the first rate hike is coming. It is coming, but I don't think these numbers are of sufficient impetus to suggest that it's going to come in March, not after that headline number. And that's the problem, I think, at the moment with the headline payrolls report. You've got fairly weak jobs growth, but you've got the unemployment rate falling and you've got the participation rate rising. So there's still plenty of scope to fill those overall positions. Does anyone have any questions on any of the numbers thus far? So I'm looking at the moment. I've got questions on Kiwi and Dolla Cad. Okay. So we're looking at Kiwi. Let's get a shot at that. So we've got fairly decent support in and around these series of lows through here. So fairly decent support at 6702 on the Kiwi. That number could have prompted retest of the lows, but I think it's going to take something really substantive to basically drive the Kiwi much lower. We appear to be in a bit of a range when it comes to the Kiwi. Is there potential for a decline back to this support level here? Absolutely there is. But I think it's going to take something substantive to move us much below that in terms of the Kiwi. In terms of the CAD. So look at the Canadian numbers because they were released first. The unemployment rate in Canada has fallen to 5.9%. You've got full-time employment rising by more than expected. So that's very positive Canada-wise. And you've got fairly decent support in and around this level here. And there's potential here for a little bit of an ahead in the shoulders forming on the daily charts. So if I draw a little line through here, as long as we hold below 128 on dollar CAD, then I think there's potential for us to retest this line here and retest the trend line from the lows through here. This is your left shoulder here. This is your right shoulder here. So you've got a potential right shoulder formation here. So on CAD, if we see a move back above 128, it's certainly worth looking at a short position with a stop loss above for a move back to this line through here. Certainly we are starting to see a little bit of a rebound in the price from these lows through here. But one thing this candle has shown me here is that there is significant selling pressure around about 128.13. There are thereabouts. Because that's where we saw 128.14.128.15. Then you got 128.30 there. So there's fairly decent resistance through those peaks. We just bring that indicator back because for some reason it disappeared. There we go. So dollar CAD, I'll be looking on this particular chart to certainly move back towards 128 for a move back towards this potential neckline through here on the CAD. So hopefully that gives you something. So I think non-farm reports tonight will favor a move higher for the Hang Seng Index over the Dow or the S&P. The problem with the Hang Seng at the moment is it's not really being driven much by what other markets are doing. If you look at what the Hang Seng did last year compared to other equity markets, it went in completely the opposite direction. There however does appear to be a little bit of a base forming in the Hang Seng. If we look at these two bases through here, you've got fairly decent support around about 22,700. So if we can get break through 23,600, we could well see a nice sharp move higher towards 24,500 in this series of peaks through here. The market does look as if it's ready for a bit of a rebound. The big question is whether or not we'll be able to get that. Certainly the dynamic suggests that at some point we should be able to get some form of rebound. Let me see if I can extend this support line backwards to see whether or not it comes in anywhere else. If we look at that, we've got a fairly decent area of support all the way through here. So I would suggest that maybe we are near a short-term base on the Hang Seng. Now of course, whether or not that correlates with a move higher in the Dow and the S&P is another matter because the two haven't been correlated at all over the course of the past 12 months. So if I was looking to go long an index on the basis of a risk reward, then yeah, absolutely the Hang Seng has a much better risk reward for going long than the S&P or the Dow because the S&P and Dow both within touching distance of their current record highs. It's almost a no-brainer. But the big question is obviously comes about with respect to the factors that have driven the Hang Seng Lower and have continued to drive the Hang Seng Lower over the course of the past few months. Will they abate? Will they diminish? At some point you've got to say to yourself how much lower can it go? So on the technicals, certainly I would argue that there's potential for the Hang Seng to go higher. NASDAQ. There we go. I talked about that a little bit earlier. I think we're going to get a retest of these loads through here. So yeah, basically, decent payrolls report, decent levels of inflation, wage inflation would put up with pressure on the yields and would make the NASDAQ an awful lot more vulnerable. As I said, am I summing up just before the numbers? This 15,500 level is the key level on the NASDAQ. If we get a break of that support low, then we could well see further declines. The big question is whether we'll get that today or whether we'll get it in the wake of the CPI numbers which are due out on the 12th of January next Wednesday. That for me, I think could be a key determinant of whether or not the NASDAQ starts to kick lower. But as I said, the only thing that's holding the NASDAQ up at the moment is those mega cap stocks, Microsoft, Apple, Amazon and Alphabet. Facebook. Those big caps. So that's important to bear in mind. So maybe we should look at Apple for clues as to what the NASDAQ might want to do. So let's look at it. So that's Apple at the moment. Big support on that particular chart is going to be around about 167.50 which is the lows of the 20th of December. Let me draw a horizontal line through that. So 167.50. So we're seeing higher yields that is likely to put increasing pressure on the NASDAQ. The US5 year yield has touched 1.5% just now which is the highest since January 2020. So the big question is how sustainable these higher yields are and if they do prove to be sustainable then it's companies like Apple and Alphabet that you need to be keeping an eye out for. So again looking at this one here and again we've got the 200 day moving average so that's going to be a fairly decent area of support as well as these lows through here. Sometimes when you're looking at the NASDAQ it's useful to look at the proxies for the NASDAQ given the fact that an awful lot of the smaller companies have already fallen quite sharply as it is. So you've got a bit of a bipolar index in terms of the NASDAQ composite, four in every 10 companies fallen by more than 50% from the 52 week highs. So it makes reading US markets very very difficult. If you strip out the big caps how well of US markets actually done. So it's worth bearing that in mind. Outlook on the dollar overall in the medium term in answer to your question Alan is pretty much what I said about euro-dollar. I think it's a range trait. Obviously you're going to see the dollar try and push higher and certainly yields are pushing higher, but the dollar actually isn't the following suit. You're seeing that in terms of this euro-dollar chart here. We're on the lows of the day for today, the euro-dollar below 113 and we ran out of steam very very quickly when we went above 113.20. My bias is still very much by the dip on the dollar sell the rally on euro-dollar by the dip dollar yen. My view on dollar yen is probably a big driver of where we potentially could go on the US dollar more broadly. The fact that we've broken above these highs here in November suggests that we can potentially revisit these levels all the way back here in 2017 because now that we've broken above these peaks all the way back here if I change that to a weekly chart then there's nothing to really stop us going back to 117.50 now that we've broken above 114.70 and dollar yen is a very technical currency pair so I would expect dollar yen as long as we can hold above 114.70 to go back to these peaks through here so that would suggest to me that we are very much by the dips on the dollar and the dollar can go higher but it could take a couple of weeks or a few weeks for that to unfold but on a technical basis if you use dollar yen as a proxy for the dollar then you've got to think that the dollar should go higher any other questions ladies and gents anything that I haven't covered you'd like me to cover looking at gold again just recapping that as you can see on gold what we're seeing on gold is not being reflected on gold when it comes to US yields are going up but gold should be going down and it's not so I would suggest what you're seeing on yields at the moment is mostly noise ahead of next week's CPI numbers thoughts on Aussie dollar similar to really Kiwi you've got potential to head back to these lows through here we saw a big down move on the Aussie dollar which found a basis 69.90 we've since recovered all the way back to 72.70 but again we're drifting back down again and could well find decent support in and around 71 so again yeah it's dollar strength more than anything else quickly large cap profitable companies will be that affected by interest rates going up ordinarily they shouldn't be but it's all about their valuation and higher rates potentially eat into economic growth which then eat into average hourly earnings as does inflation therefore the ability of those companies to generate higher profits is impacted by higher rates so if you look at say for example the average dividend yield of a NASDAQ company which is around about 0.7 0.6 and then you look at a two year bond yield which is 0.8 0.9 percent the it's easier to generate a return on a US government bond say a company that doesn't pay a dividend but is a high growth company because potentially they'll find it much more difficult to generate earnings in an economy that's slowing so that's generally why you'll find that profitable companies will be affected by higher rates because higher rates can affect their profitability and their ability to generate higher returns so hopefully that makes sense Alan I'm sure you'll let me know if it doesn't okay Bitcoin and Ethereum and Brent crude short and long term okay let's start with Bitcoin we're at a big big level or approaching a big big level in Bitcoin here it is this is one I prepared earlier I've got 41,000 there or there abouts we're just below that 40,000 area this low point here as a key support for Bitcoin so we can see further weakness in Bitcoin in the short to medium term but I would only get fundamentally bearish on it if we break below the lows that we saw back in September which is 39,600 but also coincides with this trend line down here so with Bitcoin I can see the potential for further weakness but I would only start to get predominantly bearish on it if we take out this trend line through here Ethereum where are you there you are that has broken its trend line but we've got another one through here so let's redraw so that one's gone we can dispose of that we are now on the 200 day moving average for Ethereum if we close below the 200 day moving average then potentially we can head back towards these are September lows that we saw that match the September lows we saw in Bitcoin so it's not an exact science but you've got to think there is going to be a certain degree of correlation between the two so I would certainly keep an eye out for Ethereum if we break below these two levels here but again there is potential for further weakness in both Bitcoin and Ethereum let's move on to Brent Crude Brent Crude this is the big level for me on Brent it's trend line from the peaks in October which are around about 83-83-50 we've seen a fairly decent start to the year we've broken above 79-69-79-70 but overall you've got to think that at these sorts of levels there has got to be an element of concerns about demand destruction and let's not forget the reason we're up here this week is because of concerns that Kazakh production might be disrupted well thus far it hasn't been and it does generate 1.6 million barrels a day so at the moment those supplies are still flowing so at the moment Crude Oil is higher on the premise that supply could see disruption at the moment we haven't seen that so it's going to be very difficult to crack that 83-50 area and as such I would expect at some point to come back down but obviously that will also depend on the data that we see next week we've also got China trade numbers next week and they could be market moving as well and they are due on the 14th and it'll be very interesting to see what the import numbers look like because in the November numbers China import numbers were pretty decent coal imports showed a big rebound and there was also a high demand for copper as well so has China seen a big pickup in oil demand in December as they took advantage of the lower prices caused by the release of their SPR reserves along with the US so I'll be keeping an eye on those next week DAX indeed there we go DAX looks fairly similar we've got a potential double top here but we've got really solid support all the way down through 15,000 again I would expect to see a little bit of weakness here potentially come back to 15,600 in the short to medium term it does look a little bit frothy and around 16,000 I mean in the longer term I'm still fairly constructive on European equities simply on a valuation basis they are cheaper than US stocks and as such should be much more compelling and let's face it the ECB is not going to be raising rates anytime soon my only concern about the DAX is that an awful lot of the companies in the DAX have significant exposure to China so if we see the slowdown in Chinese economic growth because of their zero COVID strategy that's likely to affect profit potential for DAX companies because they export an awful lot of goods to China nonetheless 15,900 is looking as if it's a little bit of support but anywhere near 16,200 has proven to be a little bit toppy and as such on a technical basis you've got to be a little bit careful about being overly long at current levels nonetheless I would still expect the DAX to finish this week higher if we look at a weekly chart we're still on course to finish the week higher but I do have concerns that we've struggled to really reverse the losses that we saw in November and we've only just about managed to do that and now we're back near the week so there are certainly concerns about a lack of momentum when it comes to further upside and if you recall last January stock markets actually finished the month lower before going on an upward move so January can be a little bit choppy but looking at this chart I'd be very cautious about being aggressively along the DAX at this point in time okay well thank you very much ladies and gents for all your attendance today as I say in around about 24, 48 hours you'll be getting a follow up asking you for feedback about the presentation I would be enormously grateful if you could send me whatever feedback you feel is appropriate otherwise I'd like to thank you very much for your attendance today I'll be posting this on YouTube later today if any of you want to listen to it back otherwise I'd like to wish you all a very pleasant weekend and speak to you all same time, same place this time next month, thanks very much for listening