 Welcome, traders, to this week's weekly live market and trading analysis session with me, Patrick Manley. And just before we get going, just want to do a quick sound check if you can hear me and you can see the welcome screen, the tick me the welcome screen, if you could just type a Y in the chat box so that I know we're ready to get going. Okay, so before we jump into today's discussion. First of all, we want to just remind ourselves of the disclaimer here. What's most relevant with respect to today's content is that the views expressed by me today are solely mine, they are not indicative or representative of Tick Mill UK or Tick Mill Europe limited. So for those of you who are here for the first time, just a brief introduction to myself. After I graduated from university, I joined a city PLC consulting firm. After a few years learning the ropes, I left with some colleagues and went on to co-found and successfully exit a consulting startup post-emerger in late 2004. I then moved on to explore my passion for markets with some capital to play with and some time in my hands I started day trading or more appropriately day gambling, the S&P. And after some early beginners luck, I racked up some pretty solid games. However, as is often the case, I begin as luck runouts and as the market phase changed, I began to average down into what would become a significant losing positions. I eventually gave back all the gains I made and ultimately took a significant six-figure hit on my personal capital. So this was a gut wrenching and sobering experiences and understatements and I really had to stand back from the markets and figure out if it was feasible for me to make a living from trading. So I decided to get serious and sought out a mentor who displayed an excellent trading track record and an idea to model their behavior. I worked with my mentor for a period of 18 months to two years. During this time, I up to not just my technical game in terms of researching and developing a strategy that importantly suited my personality. I extensively back and forward tested the strategy developing a rigorous risk management approach to underpin it. But most importantly, during this period of mentorship, I significantly developed my mental game. And probably the most important watershed shift I made was from being a highly goal orientated individual focused on financial gains to really becoming a purely process orientated individual. What does that mean? Well, actually, it means that I had to stop focusing on what I could make from the markets and start focusing solely on managing my mindset to allow me to consistently execute my trading strategy, oftentimes in the face of negative feedback from the markets in the form of losing trades. But once you become process orientated and have a professional trading mindset and you understand the true nature of trading being a numbers game in which you're simply playing the probabilities, you lose the emotional investment and that hellish emotional roller coaster of living and dying by the outcomes of individual trades. So I'm no longer concerned with the outcome of individual trades or even a bunch of trades. My focus is on the next 100 trades because I know by focus on excellence and execution, my trading edge will demonstrate itself over an extended series of outcomes. My multi-strategy approach has delivered profitable annual returns since 2008. Since 2013, I've also been managing investor capital through my managed account service, delivering annual positive returns. I'm currently responsible for managing a multi-million dollar portfolio and you can see on the screen the performance data for that managed account service. Since 2010, I've also personally mentored over 100 private traders of all experienced levels from complete novices to former CME floor traders in developing the technical and mental skills to consist of returns from the markets. I have provided content to numerous brokers and trading education brands, webinars, live presentation content and a range of topics for market analysis to trading strategy development and execution. In addition to my fund management and private mentoring, I'm also a resident market expert at Tick Mill providing market and trade analysis on a daily basis. If you want to get the notifications on those, you can register your email address on the Tick Mill blog and you will get the my daily updates. My other passion project is as head of trading and trader education for a leading education brand called FXCriswap, offering developments and more importantly funding to retail trading talents. FXCriswap, we don't just develop retail traders market and trading strategy knowledge, we work on mindset development through our structure program that culminates in successful candidates managing the firm's capital at zero personal financial risk on a profit share basis. For those who are interested in learning more about what we do at FXCriswap, there's a number on there. You can call the desk in London and one of the guys will help you out in terms of additional information or you can send an email to info at FXCriswap.com and the guys will get back to you in a timely fashion. Okay, so that is a flavor of my background and where I'm coming from. Today what we're going to do is we're going to walk through about 26 instruments looking at the intraday on the four hour time frame, the intraday wave structure and where we can identify some potential high probability trading opportunities off of the current market structure. So we're going to start with the dollar index before I jump into the dollar index. I just want to pull up a note here I shared with the guys on the trading floor this morning. This is to do with options flow in the foreign exchange market and for those who aren't familiar with options, options are the derivative of the spot price and it allows players to take significant positions in the market with a fixed capital risk. And so just shared this this morning with the guys that the recent strength we saw in the dollar to my mind was a positioning washout and what we're seeing now is a return to positioning which would suggest that over the next one to three months well sorry one three and 12 month period we can anticipate see additional dollar weakness when we track the relationship of the puts puts our bets on the downside and calls which are bets on the upside in a in a currency and we can see here that we are now seeing over all tenors one three and 12 month period that the market the options market is suggesting we'll see further upside in the euro versus the dollar the euro dollar contracts obviously being the biggest effects flow in terms of that space. So that's just an interesting note there that I shared with the guys this morning on the floor who get this type of information daily through through the trading floor at FX career swap. So that being said let's take a look now at the actual technical setup that we're seeing in the dollar and for those who are here last week you'll know that I was I was getting bearish again in terms of the dollar index as we completed what I thought was a corrective ABC of quality objective into this 91 30 91 79 area of nice reversal pattern we got taught last week and I've taken products on the initial leg here because where I think we are now we're probably coming into complete this initial impulse leg off these low off these highs so the red arrow here is giving me is being the trend direction I think we're heading in now if this leg is impulsive then what can we reasonably expect well we can reasonably expect a corrected phase and what we're always looking for is an ABC correction ideally and quality setup. So to my mind at the moment I think we see one more leg to the downside ideally get a test of this 90 level building some divergence here on our side indicator and then that should set up the completion of this initial impulse move in the dollar and then we should see a three-way correction and I'd really like to see the dollar index trade back into this 90 89 91 area and I'd be watching for bearish reversal patterns on the four hour time frame to set short positions and then I think we are set up to challenge and if not exceed the 89 22 low so that's the that's the play here in terms of the dollar and this is obviously going to feed into a bunch of instruments but we'll run through and we'll identify now those levels where we want to re-engage the dollar index sorry re-engage the dollar on the short side what we have here are the bonds and obviously we know that in terms of bonds and yields when price when the price of a bond is is increasing the yield on the bond is decreasing and that impacts FX flows and so what we've got here is we've got the bonds looking for another leg higher to test this descending trend line resistance bearish bond prices versus this swing high here at 13721 so what I've been looking for here is the bonds to basically correct this initial decline that we saw here and we've subdivided nicely into five waves got that divergence on the fifth wave low and now we're looking for a test of this descending trend line in an ABC corrected pattern and watch for bearish reversal patterns at this 137.08 level to set short positions looking for a retest and if not to exceed prior levels so then if we look at yields obviously yields trading inversely to to bonds and so what we've got here a five-way pattern to the upside and I'm now looking for an ABC corrected move currently looking at something into this one percent level and then I think we get a test up into this 1.25 1.26 this ascending trend line resistance versus versus the swing lows and I think there from there we can see if you see another pullback in terms of yield moving to the euro dollar so I think we've completed a correction in terms of the euro on the daily time frame we're obviously looking at the entry here to try and pinpoint some entry potential entry levels so I'm bullish the euro now versus this 1957 low and we can see night we've got a nice five-way pattern developing here we're just looking to take out highs so I'm going to suggest that we've potentially got our way for low in place here and as we take out these highs I'm looking for a test now 121 80 weekly projected range resistance coming at 1205 and what I'd like to see now is some bearish reversal patterns as we trade up into this area we should maintain what we very important for me if I'm going to trade countertrend as I don't want to see or sorry what I what will mean that I wouldn't be taking a counter trend trade is if when we move into this way five upside objective if we take out the prior highs in terms of the psych indicator that will that will remove or avoid the current divergence setup that we could have here and so that if that's the setup and this will trade into this way five target zone and we make a new high in terms of psych indicator then that negates the idea that I'd be looking to fade this strength but at the moment this move I'm looking for it to terminate in this 121 120 120 180 122 area and if we get into here and we get a bearish reversal pattern and we haven't made a new high in psych that gives me the go ahead to take countertrend trade and what I'll be looking for there is is an ABC corrective pattern and if we get this reversal here ideally what I'll be looking for is move back into 120 50 120 70 area and then that will give us the opportunity as we have to obviously watch how price develops that'll give us the opportunity then to set up our target to re-engage the market on the long side looking for looking for higher prices versus this swing low here so let's check in with sterling sterling has obviously been on a tear and supported it for those who joined us yesterday for the pandemic debate supported really by the idea that the UK are exceeding the European counterparts in terms of vaccine rollouts and so we can see here versus the versus the low 135 64 that we have an impulsive move I think we've we've just completed wave four here and so I'm looking for a wave five extension now obviously again what I want to do is what when we've completed the wave four I'm looking to pay attention to the position of of the psych indicator because where we've got that peak there that would stop that support the idea of a wave three high so what I'm looking for now is we trade higher up into 139 139 sorry 138 9 we have 139 that's the daily range resistance we've also got monthly and weekly range resistance here 138 70 so anywhere in this zone now if we get a bearish reversal pattern and we don't make a new high in terms of site then I'm going to be looking at a tactical countertrend trade on the short side in terms of sterling and the the target for this to this pullback for me will be these prior highs 137 50 which was the the technical range resistance that we broke out of so any three wave pullback into that area with bullish reversal patterns will then allow me to join the trend the dominant trend which is to the upside so watching for bearish reversal patterns in this zone set set those short positions and then I'm going to be targeting 137 50 where I'll look to potentially reverse those positions with bullish reversal patterns ultimately I'm looking for a move up to test towards 140 in sterling dollar yen had this position running last week on the short side and took profits on that earlier in the week so again versus this swing high here I'm bearish the dollar yen on as this corrected pattern completed and now what I'm looking for is a 34 to complete here and then get that fifth wave test ideally down into this 104 20 area and then again what I'll do is if we have divergence here in terms of our site indicator then again that's going to allow for the opportunity to play a countertrend long position here in the dollar yen and what's the target well it's going to be an abc corrected pattern versus the current setup I've been looking for something above 105 1010 520 for that to terminate and then again we watch for bearish reversal patterns on for our time frame set short positions and we could be heading certainly back into 103 40 and and down towards 102 is the game plan there versus this swing high at 105 80 the Aussie dollar so bullish structure in terms of the Aussie dollar for those who follow my daily market analysis you know that I've been I've been looking for an impulse to develop here because I think we have a or a track or probable price path to get towards the 80 cents level in terms of the Aussie so again we've got a nice five wave pattern here I'm looking for that to complete into these prior resistance area here 77 80 78 level and importantly again what we're going to pay attention to is this potential divergence which will allow me to play a countertrend short position with the once I get a bearish reversal pattern on the four hour time frame and what I've been looking for obviously is the corrective pattern and that versus the currents this current structure here I'd look for that to complete into the 76 70 area and again then what I'd be looking for bullish reversal patterns to get in on the long side towards the break of the prior highs on route to that set on route that 80 cents upside objective Kiwi dollar a little bit more complex in terms of the Kiwi price action here but ultimately we've taken out that descending trend line I was looking for potential for us to get another test here into the ascending trend line and the pivot point here maybe we're not going to see that and if so what do we do well if we take out the highs let me just move this what we can say to ourselves then is this correction did complete on that first test of the of the trend line so we have the ABC correction complete and then what we'd be looking to do would be to buy a break of the prior highs to set up that move to retest 73 15 on route to the 74 50 that I'm looking for in terms of the Kiwi so we'll see how we trade here as we head into the US session but there's the potential to potentially get long here the Kiwi want to pay attention obviously when we see these these daily range resistance weekly range resistance 72 60 heading into the the back end of the week it might be that we get up into this area and see another pullback before we make that extension so I don't not necessarily enamored or enthused by buying into this resistance this projected range resistance area here so I'll see how see how we trade there but ultimately I believe that the Kiwi is going to going to trade higher here in terms of the structure setup and then obviously that feeds in to a lower lower loony I think I think what I'm looking for here is a test into this prior descending trend line resistance to active support set up a wave three low here I think and again what I'm paying attention to or we want to see this this divergence continue to hold and if it does then there'll be opportunity here to play a game counter-trend tactical position or looking for a three wave correction and versus this current setup I'd anticipate we can get back into this 127 40 127 60 area before we we resume to the downside for a wave five either to retest or exceed those prior lows at 125 88 swissie as I said last week had this one running took profit as we traded down into this trend line so again versus this swing high now I think we have an impulse leg developing I'd like to see a move down into certainly into the projected monthly and weekly range support 88 70 area or even down here into the daily range support 88 50 so we've got a 20 pit target zone here for this wave four sorry for this wave five to complete what I want to obviously make sure that we have this divergence in play as we get in here because there is an opportunity then to play the counter-trend on the long side looking for that corrected move before looking to re-engage this on the short side once that correction plays out so that we'll see this is the zone I'm going to be watching this afternoon looking for bullish reversal patterns to get in on the long side in terms of swissie this time I'm looking to play that counter-trend move still again advancing in a wedge here and I still think we have room to go so whilst we hold this 144 52 I'm looking for another move to test this projected daily range resistance and the ascending trend line resistance 145 50 area and again with divergence and this is one that we're getting plenty of divergence in I've been watching for bearish reversal patterns set to look to get short and I certainly get a retest of the trend line support here down to 144 we may actually get a bit lower in terms of in terms of this sterling end given this squeeze we're seeing in the wedge here so watching as we get into this area 145 40 to 145 60 watch for those bearish reversal patterns given that we've got this great divergence down here in terms of sentiment momentum and that's going to be an opportunity to do something on the short side and certainly we can think in terms of testing the ascending trend line resistance like I say pi 143 area euro yen a little bit more choppy but also what I'm looking for in the euro yen is a breakthrough this triangle resistance early when I was marking the chart up I was actually looking to see if we get another test of the ascending trend line support maybe we're not going to see that if we don't see that then the play is is is pretty simple we'll just get rid of that's what you're looking for is a break and then a retest of the trend line that holds get a bullish reversal pattern and then you can join this emerging trend in terms of in terms of the euro yen so that's one that I'm going to be keeping keeping an eye on two so the two areas of interest really are back at a retest of the ascending trend line support or a breach and pull back to get in on the long side Aussie yen breaking higher so I'm looking for a wave five here to complete as we break out of this consolidation zone you can see we're going to get some potentially get some really nice divergence here so where I'm looking at the moment is this is the monthly projected range resistance 81 60 up to even to 82 so any reversal patterns in this area so four hour candle rejections here will be an opportunity to do something on the short side and I think we can easily get back into prior range highs at the 80 30 maybe this ascending trend line gets tested at 80 60 euro Aussie looking while I was looking for another corrected leg here before we before we break lows here it might be that the wave four has completed with this move if that's the case then I look for the wave five down here into projected monthly range support and projected weekly range support and then I think we can look to potentially try and fade this this move with again bags of divergence here so I don't I don't anticipate at this juncture that we're going to make new lows in terms of psych indicators so that being the case watch the bullish reversal patterns as an opportunity to play a counter trend long in terms of the terms of the euro Aussie so watching this 155 area if we take out the the lows here at 156 16 euro sterling this one starting I'm going to start to track euro sterling a bit more closely now as we're coming into that weekly target that I had for euro sterling at this low 86 level if we can get a move down into here like I say we'll have we should have plenty of divergence I think that's going to complete a major leg and on the weekly charts if you actually I'll put your story let's go to it so we can see what I'm talking about so what we'll get here with this euro sterling hopefully is a test of this major weekly trend line support coming in just ahead of the 86 level so current setup here is that we we're in a wave 3 4 in this descending wedge pattern this is all technically really nice setup what we look for is an exhaustion move to the downside where we take out the ascending trend line support really see the market get short there and then what we're watching for these bullish reversal patterns will have plenty of divergence to play with bullish reversal patterns set long positions and really what I'd be looking for really with euro sterling is potentially setting some positions that I would hold because I think we can see a major low in place here if that trend line holds and we get the reversal and we could we could have something that could be a few hundred pits in terms of upside with this euro sterling so this is one that is certainly it's not one I've been paying it from trading perspective paying much interest to recently because of that waiting for that trend line test now we look like we're setting up perfectly for that test and I've been watching for reversal patterns to to jump into that on the long side sterling Kiwi this is this is one I've talked about a few times now where where I potentially see this double bottom and an inverse heaven shoulders pattern developing so I'm watching to see if we can hold some support probably down here into this 90 190 50 area and if we can and we get bullish reversal patterns then I'm going to be looking to play a break a bullish reversal pattern from this support area to certainly target this 193 which I think is going to be pivotal and if we get through 193 then that opens up quite a bit of upside in terms of sterling Kiwi but if we get rejected here at this 193 and we hold this resistance we could actually have completed what is a pretty complex corrected pattern and we could be heading could be heading lower in terms of sterling Kiwi so watching the 190 50 we can get if we see some reversal patterns there to play for 193 and then see how the market trades we get up into that zone now on to the equity markets and similarly here I think we're in that we're getting pretty close to to exhaustive phase if I posted on the blog today the chart of the day or sorry the chart hit that I do the video talking about the levels that are of interest to me we could get a marginal new high here that's not that wouldn't that wouldn't discourage my view here we do get a marginal new high you can see we're going to have plenty of divergence in terms of sites so watch for the reversal patterns I think ultimately we're heading for a test at the moment for 3820 in terms of these futures and so I'm watching for for an entry to to play for this move not that I'm uber bearish I just think we're with would you a correction here versus this impulse we're trading into 139 25 target area which would which complete this impulse leg and we've got the daily range resistance coming in 39 36 so I'm paying close attention to those for a correction in terms of these equity markets similarly here with the Dow I think the Dow is what's probably dragging this S&P higher because it hasn't completed its pattern just yet so I'm looking for a test of uh 31 64 uh up to 31 7 31 700 and you can see we'll have nice divergence there and watch for those reversal patterns again looking to play for a correction DAX I think DAX has maybe completed its correction and we can see new highs here so we take out 14100 then and I think we're having 14300 in terms of the DAX once we get up there again paying attention to the divergence because I think from there we could see another pullback in terms of the DAX the Nikkei really been leading the equity markets could have given I was looking for another leg here back to retest these prior highs at the 281996 level but it could be that we have a completed ABC correction here so that would be our wave 4 low in place and then we're looking for the extension the wave 5 extension I've been looking for a move up into this 30 000 level and maybe then from there we're going to see that a little bit more juicy correction as we retest the break point here down to 28 900 and again watching for the divergence potentially get a triple divergence in terms of making a new high in price and a third failure to make a new high from momentum perspective so interesting opportunities in this in the Nikkei there the FTSE I think the FTSE could be in the in the first leg of a move to test the 7 000 level so the the opportunity here will be watching for an equality objective somewhere around into this 64 66 area 64 80 bullish reversal patterns I think are an interesting opportunity on the long side I'm looking for a 7 000 test and then from there I think we can see a more meaningful correction in terms of the FTSE just finishing into the commodity markets here checking in with gold getting a bit more constructive here on gold I think we've got a five wave move versus this swing low here at 17 84 and I think then that sets up so that's going to be the first leg of this bigger five wave pattern that I'm looking to try and get involved in so I think we get correction here that will complete the bigger one two this will be our three other correction there for and I'm looking for a test now of the 1920 level before we set before we set high here I think then we get another move to the downside so see if we can get a pullback to test 1828 a support bullish reversal patterns there on the long side or if we take out these highs here 1855 then I think we're we're ready for around up to 1900 1895 silver sorry again got nice little impulse here haven't could have completed an ABC correction here so if we take out this daily range resistance 2750 area then I think we've got to run up to 2850 before another leg to the downside in terms of silver crude oil been on a tear and really boosted by this idea of the reflation trade the global recovery looking to play pullbacks in terms of crude I think we've got a three four sorry we're going to wait for a corrected face here any pullback into the 57 area with bullish reversal patterns I think is an opportunity on the long side and I'm really now I was looking for $60 now I'm looking for a 6250 in terms of crude oil on the upside for those who don't follow me on LinkedIn or Instagram I suggested you I posted a really interesting note from JP Morgan about the potential for a super cycle developing in terms of the energy sector so if you haven't had a chance to look at that so just take a look at my LinkedIn profile where I've posted that today let's go copper so copper again very bullish this idea of the reflation trade the global recovery I think we're in at this initial impulse leg and I think there could be plenty of room on the upside here so what I'm looking for is to fade a wave five completion we've got one two this is our three four and then I'm looking for a wave five into this three dollars eighty area and and again what do we want to see well we're setting up for for some divergence to develop there and so watch for countertrend opportunity short side I think we get back into retest certainly the 3370 area maybe even 360 before watching for bullish reversal patterns to set lower positions and if you can't trade copper yourself you can use the proxies like the Aussie or the Kiwi as good proxies for the copper market last but not least everybody's favorite Bitcoin trading very technically now as as I've discussed in prior weeks and I'm looking for for a pin here of the 50 000 level I think then we can see some there should be some profit taking and so again we'll have that divergence there I think we then get a retest of the prior highs at the 42 000 level before we can set a base to to get ready for the next leg of upside in terms of Bitcoin okay those are the charts those are the levels I'm interested in those are where I see the opportunities as we head into the back end of this week and the beginning of next week I think we've got some impulse legs completing and the FX majors and indexes and I see the potential to play some countertrend tactical short positions before realigning with more dominant trends now what I'd like to quickly do is open this up if you've got any questions with respect to any of the charts I've talked about or you've got a chart you'd like me to take a look at that I haven't covered you can either raise your hand and I can unmute your mic or you can type charts into into the chat there and I'll cover it up I'll cover it for you and like I said if you're interested in viewing that article by JP Morgan about the supercycle in energy sure to tag me in LinkedIn and you can see that on my on my profile so are there any questions equally if you don't have a question just type in N in the chat box so that I know I can I can wrap things up here for this week good stuff okay guys I'm I'm going to wrap things up here and we will reconvene at the same time next week thanks very much have a great weekend I hope this helps