 This is covering the spread here are your hosts Jim Saunas and Dr. Ed Fang What is going on everybody welcome on into covering the spread that's right here on the fan dual podcast network in number fire Dot com where today we are previewing the NFL conference championships with Jason McIntyre of FS1 and Fox Sports radio Getting his thoughts on the cheese versus the bills and the Packers versus the box letting you know where he his mind Is that for this weekend? My name is Jim Saunas I am a senior writer and analyst for a number fire calm joined here as always by dr. Ed Fang you can find his work over at the power rank calm and Ed got a little staff for you here We talked about a establishing the run during the playoffs and how teams who can run the ball and play good defense are Gonna be the ones that go far. Can you name the top four teams in expected points and just schedule adjusted passing efficiency from this past year in the NFL The top four that can you name the top four teams in schedule adjusted passing efficiency based on number fires metrics? I should say sure. I mean, I mean just I would assume these would be in many metrics, but I would say bills chiefs Packers and I'm presuming it's box if this is the question you're asking me The top four teams in schedule adjusted passing efficiency are the final four teams in the NFL this year Go pay your Zeke Elliott's go pay your Todd Gurley's But these are the teams that are playing this weekend the top the only running back here is Aaron Jones He's a he's a free agent this year. So right there you go all of your work trying to Show us how valuable passing offenses all four defenses all also top 13 and rush defense The bucks are the only team in the top. I think 20 against the rush So this is this is an analytic person's dream Ed like are you just on cloud nine right now? Yeah, no, I think it's fantastic But someone's gonna be like wow, this is only something that's happened recently but the truth is that this trend is like 30 years old and you can just go back and look at Yards for past attempt for you account for sacks and which you can have numbers for forever on Pro football reference comm and you can just show just how important The past offenses there there are extreme outliers you have to get Eli Manning lucky To get this far without a good pass offense people always say trend dofer, but they don't realize that was a different era like 2012 2011 or so somewhere in there There was a new era of football that started if you are not throwing the ball efficiently You're not gonna win anything and I think that it has been proven out this year If you want the full rankings then I was citing Brandon My co-worker over at number fire did tweet those out today So check that out at can do a 13 on Twitter top four passing offices in football and I think and it's not just a Vindication for analytics people such as yourself, but also it's fun football to watch good passing offense Now we're that's we're gonna get across the board this weekend. Yeah, absolutely I've even forgiven myself for being down on Josh Allen at the beginning of the year Like I like watching the man throw the ball. I find it to be an accurate Fun experience and you know given the ball flow ties in my circle on my wife's side Her mom and good friend. It's it's good thing that I'm on I'm on their side these days hoping for these wins Well, even when Josh Allen was not this he was always fun because it was like There was the three true outcomes in baseball a walk a strikeout or a home run His was a sack fumble or a touchdown That was it what it was every single drop-back and he's it's still kind of that ratio Except the touchdown pie piece of the pie just keeps getting bigger So Josh Allen a fun player always, but a fun and good player now It's gonna lead to some really fun games this weekend looking forward to those for sure We're gonna break them down with Jason McIntyre He is on Twitter at Jason R McIntyre you can find him on FS one in Fox Sports Radio He is the host of the straight fire podcast. He is also on talk the line with Bunch of really smart people over there as well and Jason if you are a a Long-time consumer of Fandall multimedia content an alum of more ways to win what you find on TV G He was on there back in the day with Lisa Kearney with Dave Weaver We're getting Jason back on the Fandall airwaves for today to break down these games Also, make sure you're subscribed to covering the spread wherever you get your podcast and while you're there Make sure you leave us a rating or review as well. We are back to once weekly podcast We will have two podcasts preview in the Super Bowl one focusing on the game itself One more prop heavy to try to get set for those and get you set for the Super Bowl So we'll still have two podcasts the next two weeks getting you set for that game So make sure you're subscribed to covering the spread wherever you get your podcast before we bring Jason on for today Though we do have to go back to last week tough week across the board from betting perspective We're gonna go through what we got right which was just add what we got wrong, which is the rest of it and get set boy That's up coming weekend Covering the past So last week here on covering the spread We had Kelly Stewart on to preview the division around make sure you follow Kelly on Twitter at Kelly in Vegas check her out Bleacher report and on wager talk and like I said tough week more so for me than Kelly And Ed you had a good week for sure Kelly Wanted to tease the Packers in the Ravens at the time that we spoke that would have had the Packers minus a half point and the Ravens at plus Eight and a half and the Packers side did hit they won by 14 points the Ravens though lost by 14 So they couldn't hold up there into the bargain obviously Lamar Jackson getting hurt didn't help that a pick six did not help That either Kelly also mentioned the over on that game at 50 and a half close at 50 But the wind there wound up being a bigger deal than it initially seemed it would be so the other hit They were just 20 total points being scored and then I think based on Twitter sentiment that Saturday night game It seems like a lot of people had teased the Ravens Because I think like Nick Costos was was very upset with the Ravens. Wait, hold on Nick Costos was very upset. Is that our is that our Example for being it's never happened before so this is this is a new thing Yeah, absolutely, I mean it made sense they were two and a half You know you get across three you get across seven it made a lot of sense Apparently a lot of people went that way and apparently did not go well and like I hear you Nick and others It was a frustrating game if you had if you had the Ravens plus eight and a half because like it could not have broken Any worse between the pick the pick six is one thing that in the pick six and the marketing hurt that is peak frustration Well, and not only that but I mean, I mean how many more yards the Ravens have than the bills in that game So even above and beyond that I mean Justin Tucker missing those field goals Not being able to convert more when they were closer towards the end zone. Yeah, that's that's peak frustration So I'm just giving you a hard time Nick by the way, I hope justifiable venting though I will say it was a rough Saturday night for sure Saturday or Sunday went better for you because you you were in a good zone here because Kelly was on the Saints money line at minus 1 66 But you had the bucks plus three and the Saints close at minus two and a half So you did get that number inside of three. Hopefully you got it when Ed was talking The Saints are out 20 to 13 in the third quarter, but the turnovers bit them really hard The bucks close things out in the 17 to nothing run So a good call for you on that one and I feel like the process did align well for you there in getting the bucks plus three Yeah, and it's good when kind of the numbers agree with I don't want to say my gut But my feeling about that game in terms of the upside of Tampa Bay's offense Which I will continue to talk about at nausea and probably until they lose but but also like just The little bit of a lack of confidence in New Orleans despite how good they look in the numbers Talked about Drew Brees and just the average of the target last week. I don't know if that affected his game I mean, he's not gonna throw three picks in most NFL games, right? So a little bit lucky there But I mean Tampa Bay did have more overall yards in that game if I'm if I'm not mistaken and and I think they They lived up to their end of the deal And it wasn't just a tournament they played well like they played some good football there for sure and it was Revealed today that Drew Brees apparently had a torn rotator cuff, which Seems like it should be a violation of the injury report protocol, but like, you know Not mad about that What would one of that information? Yeah, well, I guess like if he's not limited in practice Like maybe that's the work around like if he's doing the full component things in practice Like he played through it obviously, but like it seems like something you should be forced to divulge You're playing with literally a torn rotator cuff when you are an NFL starting quarterback So he had those like Justin Field type meds in him during that game Oh, yeah, he had the good stuff and maybe that, you know, obviously they brought in James to throw that deep pass Right. What's it done with Tayson Hill this year too. It's been the same. They've done that as well Yeah, but it was that's a very interesting piece of news, right? There's clearly no one knew about that beforehand. I mean, I think I think that market moved because that was the right way to go You're saying the market didn't move because Tayson Hill was ruled out rolled out, you know, he's not moving lines out here Not not in my world, but maybe I don't know I'm not the the world's number one expert on why markets move So not in most worlds Ed. So you're good to go there I wanted the Browns over their team total 23 and a half And this is why I have to defend all people who were Complaining about the Ravens on Twitter on Saturday because in my head I was complaining this entire game on Sunday as well There was late money on the Browns which did push the cheese down to minus eight the total came down a bit too So the the team total for the Browns stayed pretty stagnant here at 23 and a half And they could have gotten over if they had scored late Which was possible because they're moving the ball and decided to punt but Kevin Stefansky abandoned his I Know we ragged on him for running the ball too much But he doesn't he does have an analytics background with his emphasis on play action He just does run the ball too much, but they could have they could have gotten over if they had decided not to punt there Or if for shard Higgins hadn't fumbled out of the end zone after being targeted Like if one of those things that happened they would have gone over they scored 17 points They didn't it was frustrating So I I think the Ravens complainers are valid because in my heart I was feeling the exact same thing on Sunday. It was a very frustrating weekend across the board except for you being on the Bucks plus three Yeah, I mean, I think the Higgins play is interesting on so many levels First of all was targeting and a very dangerous play second of all the only thing I can see on Twitter was the Oh, this is the dumb rule where the ball goes out and the touchback goes to the defense and My thought is I think the defense should get the ball every time it goes out of bounds Right, let's you're not alone in that by the way. I think it's Ryan Nanny. He works for Banners Society, and he's always on a podcast back in the day with Spencer Hall. I think he's actually still in those podcasts Spencer Hall I think he's floated that possibility. I don't know. It might not be Ryan I might be totally misquoting this but you are you have people in your corner here Well, everyone's like, oh, it's all consistent because if it goes out if it just goes out a yard before then the offense Gets the ball at the half yard line and it's a different game. I was like fine. Give it to the defense. Let's penalize the offense for coughing up the ball that that's that's my That that's what I think should happen. I hear all I hear is that you hate points and you hate Like that's what that's the vibe. I'm getting here. Yeah, maybe who had the over 75 For sure and hates points send all your greats there. I'm still mad about it But at least a baker played well I can at least take solace in that so Jared golf we can talk about later, but at least Baker played well I can have my one solace from that past weekend So we're gonna put the divisional round in the past and never think about it ever again We're gonna talk to Jason McIntyre about the conference championships here in just one second But first sports betting is great Sports betting a Fandall sportsbook is even better right now Fandall sportsbook is giving you a chance to bet on any sport with reduced risk with their exclusive same game parley and shirts Simply place a three leg or more parlay to be eligible for the offer and follow along as the game unfolds If you don't win one of your bets Fandall refund your bet at $25 and site credit what you have to lose head to Fandall sportsbook in place your same game parlay today Must be 21 plus and president New Jersey Pennsylvania Illinois West Virginia, Indiana Colorado, Tennessee or Iowa Refundition is a non-throttle site credit max refund $25 terms apply gambling problem call 1-800 gambler or in Colorado Call 1-800-522-4700 In West Virginia visit 100 gambler net in Indiana call 1-800-9 with it in Tennessee. Call the Tennessee Red Line 1-800-889-9 789 let's bring on Jason McIntyre now to preview the conference championships once again follow Jason on Twitter at Jason McIntyre check out his podcast the straight fire podcast which goes up pretty regularly you also check them out on FS1 and Fox Sports Radio with talk the line we're gonna preview the conference championships with Jason right now Covering the present Let's bring Jason McIntyre into covering the spread to preview the NFL conference championships Jason I appreciate the time. How you doing today? I'll be better this weekend. I hope it was a tough divisional weekend for me You know to turn over just one against me whether it was Lamar's pick six or Drew Brees throwing three picks at his own end You know those didn't work out for me, but thanks a lot You know we've worked together before and I've had it on my radio show. I know you guys well You guys do great stuff. Yeah, absolutely We're glad to have you back in the fan duel the fan duel multimedia sphere good back in your TV G more ways to win days good to have you back in the airways for sure and the conference champion or the division Around us tough for me too because I had I was on the Browns team total over 24 the Richard Higgins fumble was tough for sure, but I think it's tough to like kind of scrub that from your memory When you have like those tough weekends like that what specifically for you was kind of the bugaboo last weekend Well, I mean I will say I got I got lucky with Brown's chiefs. I had the under I had the Browns getting points And then I had it, you know one of these silly teasers. Listen teasers have been incredible this season I don't know about you guys, but just teasing I you know I tease down the Packers and the chiefs the favorites I mean it was you know not great juice obviously, but it felt like an easy winner and those have been performing well I mean the bills this year. I think a ridiculous 16 and one or something like that on six point teasers You got to find an edge wherever you can and I just that Lamar Jackson interception I read a story guys where over the last like 20 25 years of playoffs That's one of the biggest game-changers since that Super Bowl pick six J Harrison in the Super Bowl against the Cardinals like that's how big it was For the Ravens. It was just brutal and then Lamar gets hurt like two plays later. Just Yeah, absolutely I mean the bills really didn't perform like we expected them to I mean their past offense has been so good You look at the yardage in that game, but it's it's so hard to overcome a pick six like that, right? Like you were on the doorstep I'll add this you know, I don't want to give away a pick later But the Buffalo bills have not played great in two playoff games outgained in both of them You know the home field advantage kind of mattered You know, I know they didn't have fans all season But when they were against the Colts if you read the quotes from the Indian Indianapolis players They were like that stadium was loud, you know, it's maybe they only had 7,000 people But even when Justin Tucker, you know best kicker of all time or whatever misses two kicks off the uprights It was it was rocking in Buffalo and they won't have that this weekend. I I do believe that will be a hindrance to them Yeah, absolutely I mean and just going to Kansas City where they've had fans since week one at least you know a couple throughout this time So I definitely used to that for sure and tough place to play in general So we'll see how that plays out this weekend and Jason before we get into the actual games I do want to go through some more broad stuff with you some overview stuff from a betting perspective Both these games are rematches. We do have at least one game a sample for both teams The problem is it's hard to know how much those matter because that Chiefs Bills game a lot of different personnel John Brown is not a hundred percent. He played during that game not a hundred percent David Bakhty already got hurt mid game for the Packers against the Buccaneers. He will miss the entire game But now they've had time to kind of game plan for that So what lessons can we draw from looking at those initial games and trying to predict how things are gonna play out this weekend? Or do we just have to toss those out because they both happened so long ago. Yeah I would more toss out the Packers Buccane If I remember that was like the greatest spot ever for Tampa Bay Well, not the greatest ever but it was a great spot You know, they were coming off the Thursday night lost to the Bears where they didn't have their full complement of players And it was like they looked awful in an island game Green Bay came in I think 4-0 against spread and undefeated and it was like, you know Everybody and their mom was on the Packers on the road as a favorite and Tampa was an easy layup there Even though down 10-0 you were still like, okay, we'll see and I the one thing that scares me I really like the Packers this weekend But I when you look at that game and you can go on YouTube and like watch the condensed version Green Bay did some struggles against the zone Specifically Aaron Rodgers was awful against the Blitz. It was like an exotic Blitz package at bowls dialed up He's a former Jets coach, so I'm like a fan of Todd Bowles He would drop the defensive lineman back and have the linebackers Blitz and Rodgers did not recognize it Well and really struggled. I have the numbers here. It was like five of 14 for 61 yards with two picks And this is a guy who threw I think five interceptions all season By the way, four of them have come against the Blitz I just wonder though the Packers receivers this time are at their full compliment. Everybody's healthy So I bottom line. I don't pull too much away from that game. I actually think you could take something from Bill's chiefs Buffalo had a good strategy in that game, right? The defense dropped into his own They kept everybody in front of them. No big place to Tyreek Hill. It was a weather Impact there I think in the rain. The problem was Josh Allen was awful He had one of his worst games of the season and they said we'll give you Clyde Edwards-Hallaire for a buck 60 Go for it and they were kind of in that game. They nearly covered I actually think that that defensive strategy will pretty much work again, especially You know with Mahomes not having Edwards-Hallaire. He may be back. I haven't seen the practice report today But bottom line I would take away more from Bill's chiefs Yeah Edwards-Hallaire digging a limited practice on Wednesday, but you know, it's Concerning that he's still limited and he's missed. I think it's four weeks now. Yeah with that that hip and ankle injury Like he's not a full health. Even if he does play. He's not fully healthy yet With the Todd Bolls point is interesting because like that's that's a staple of Todd Bolls defenses is exotic pressures And I think that as a Jets fan, you can definitely appreciate that especially going from Todd Bolls to Adam Gase Pretty tough transition there for sure But now you get Robert Sala. So like hey, you know everything's okay, right? Well, I'll say listen when Peyton Manning endorsed Adam Gase, bring him on Yeah, sure Peyton Manning knows everything about football Robert Sala, it's tough to get to get me very excited about this You guys know what's an offensive league. I mean, I'll just say this at least we didn't hire Dan Campbell Yeah, no, that's a great dig I mean, I think the Peyton Manning recommendation of Adam Gase is probably getting less and less weight after After two stints now Jason would love to know about how you evaluate units that have been playing much better Of recently than before so, you know, we're talking about like the Bill's defense and in my mind the Bucks offense first year of Tom Brady Do you take that into consideration a lot a little bit not at all? Yeah, I would I would say my issue with the Bill's defense I think it's a little bit overrated at this point. We watched the Colts I think they had eight or nine possessions and every single one got into Bill's territory They had like 450 yards of offense like this Bill's defense. I know they held the Ravens to three But again, we had we you know, we talked about earlier the pick six was kind of a big deal Justin Tucker misses two field goals. He's automatic So I I'm not a huge believer in the Bill's defense as for the Tampa Bay Defense first, you know, they let Taylor Heineke. I think he's a four-string guy in Washington go up and down the field You know, they had he had a pretty solid game. Obviously they won and covered But I guess they didn't cover the closing number. It was close, but Taylor Heineke showed well Drew Brees, of course three picks but to me that was more about breeze than the Tampa defense Like they could see that he couldn't do anything They didn't have to worry about the taste of Hill Factor and they just sat on every route and were just dominating As for the Tampa offense, you know, they were down in that game before the Jared Cook Fumble Like they're trailing 20 to 13 Tampa Really on their heels defensively and then Jared Cook coughs it up and you know, that flipped the game there. So Maybe I'm too not bullish enough on the offenses, but neither of them Tampa Bay or Buffalo are really impressive to me at this point Yeah, I think the the Buffalo defensive number is interesting especially with regards to the total for that game between the Bills and the Chiefs because 53 and a half kind of assumes good defense at a Buffalo And if you are on board of Jason and assuming that that Buffalo defense might not be as good as it's being billed There could be some Advantages numbers there. Let's talk about some futures with you Jason while we have you here before we talk about the games Because there's still a lot to be decided here. There's it's a pretty wide-open market Packers and Chiefs both plus 210 at Fandall sportsbook Bills plus 330 Tampa Bay Plus 430 as well as they're a little bit longer than the other ones Are you seeing any Advantages numbers there in the futures market before we get to these conference championships that you'd want to pounce on now before they move It's interesting I basically have laid out that I'm kind of leaning toward both favorites and you're looking at the futures and I'm like well You know, is there value in Buffalo if Pat Mahomes is not a hundred percent and I'm not just talking about the concussion What about the toe, you know, if you look closely in the second quarter He was off on some throws. Romo pointed it out couldn't totally plant and didn't look a hundred percent Although the bills they don't have much of a pass rush Yeah, so maybe you can make a case for the bills And then if you are a believer that Tom Brady can get this done and the cold weather is just a silly narrative out there They go good to play a home game in the Super Bowl and true that would be nice Certainly, I'm sure sleeping in your bed home cooked food Although I don't know if that will hold up, you know, maybe they bubble up the teams Given COVID I haven't seen any clarity on that but I would guess the bills I'm curious what you guys models say I don't have one myself But I would say the bills probably carry the best value of any of those four Well, I've been building out like models throughout the year trying to you know Generate my own numbers because it's been a weak point of mine is trying to have my own numbers I can lean on as opposed to looking elsewhere and my numbers like the bills a lot versus the spread They actually think that's basically a pick-up between them and the chiefs So I think that if you were to buy into those I personally can't do that because I refuse my like One creed as a betterist never wrote against Patrick Mahomes because that would scare the poo out of me And I don't want to do that for my own mental sanity I don't want to root against Pat Mahomes, but like if we're talking from a numbers perspective I would think my numbers would actually view that as being a pretty advantageous number plus 330 for Buffalo So yeah, I think that's the way you're thinking about that is correct at least in my eyes I don't know about what Ed's numbers might say, but at least from my perspective it makes sense based on the numbers Yeah, I mean, I'm definitely I mean, I'm definitely a Tampa Bay. I would be on Tampa Bay's futures Because I think my numbers like them. They're they're pretty good And I just don't I don't think they fully capture what that offense is capable of Brady's been great this year. It's p of F passing grades been excellent. His receivers are I have been hurt But but Mike Evans and Chris Godwin and and who knows what Antonio Brown can do and some of those young guys really kind of showed up Last week too. So I don't necessarily think my number is capture the full upside of what they're doing So and that'll probably Apparent when when I talk about the games a little bit later as well Jason, let's move on to some of the games. We got Tampa Bay at Green Bay Packers opened It was at three and a half Until yesterday and then it kind of came down to three in a lot of places Total of 51 and a half right now at Fandall Sports Book Do you think that movement towards Tampa Bay is justified or are you you're going with a favorite? Um, I was Obviously, I would not like Green Bay at three and a half But I am curious like if you guys remember Sunday, there was kind of a late move on Tampa I think it crossed through three to two and a half I was like, uh-oh This is not good They move pretty clear right through three and a half through the key number of three down or two and a half, you know But I'll still stand by it guys. I go back to that, you know, Tampa Saints game again I would bet on the Saints again is Drew Brees gonna have three picks in his own end One was nearly a pick six and then the fumble, you know, you lose the turnover margin for oh, you're not winning any games So It's difficult for me to build a case here for Tampa I do like hearing everybody say well, it's the cold weather and you know, it's spent me looking through The Tampa schedule this year and the Washington playoff game was like 35 degrees and I watched the video and like no skilled position players on Tampa were wearing long sleeves And you know how they have like the handlers on the sideline with the parkas to put over everybody's shoulder when they come out of the game None of that in Washington None of that in the chicago game from earlier this year So I mean I kind of scoff at this whole cold weather narrative. It's fun to talk about well, Tom Brady played in New England It doesn't matter, but what about the rest of the team, you know, they haven't played a cold weather game all year I just I don't really buy into that. I just look at in the earlier meeting I talked about Tampa with the zone and the exotic blitzes from bowls I don't know how he levels up from what he did a masterful game plan in that one Rogers are going to be ready for that. They know what's coming Adams is at the height of his powers. Lazard is healthy and vs is healthy I mean Robert Tynan Was not a huge deal in september. He has become like one of the better tight ends in the league One of tom brady's favorite guys The emergence of dylan the running back I don't know his health status, but he looked good down the stretch Like I just think green bay is outside of the bactari injury as healthy as possible And I and I'd like them at three if it goes back to three and a half I guess you take a bite out of Tampa Yeah, the the Robert Tynan point is is pertinent I think because like you said his role is not fully formant or not fully formed by that time If you look at expected points added per target for every tight end, we got at least 35 targets this year Tynan was the best tight end of football based on expected points added per target when rogers are in the football Like he was actually an effective member of that offense So they add Lazard because he was not there for week six They have Tynan in a more fully formed role. They can plan around not having bactari Whereas last time it happened in game. I think those are all impactful factors that do help green bay in this one So are you you're you're going with green bay minus three for this one? Yeah, um, I try to pin me down on a wednesday on jim I'm starting to look for props. I don't know if you guys have seen or anything on mvs or lasard But I keep having flashbacks to Carlton davis, uh, the buck's cornerback, you know, you had a good game last week against the sains Listen, it's one thing to hold out michael thomas who apparently needs like major surgery given his injuries Go back to that kansas city cheese game and tyreek hill Absolutely lit up carlton davis like he could not hang with him on any level Lazard and mvs they have some speed in the secondary I think there could be a big play had by perhaps mvs. I will take a flyer one of his props Okay, mvs is 31 and a half uh for his receiving yard total Oh, that's like one reception He's either yeah, he's either going to get he's either going to get beaster fan Donated or he's going to go over that on one catch like that's basically how things work With mvs his total receptions numbers two and a half that seems about right, uh, based on the way it goes Here you go jason, uh longest reception for mvs is 16 and a half. That's the prop for him So you could net a 20 yard catch in the first quarter and call that one good I love don't you where you better player prop and it's just boom done in the first quarter, you know Kick your feet back and enjoy the game. Uh, that would be nice, but uh, if you guys don't in any props yet or no I mean, I I usually get into I'm more of a touchdown scorer person when it comes to props I love the first touchdown prop bet just because I think that they're fascinating and it does overlap a lot with fantasy football Which is where my background lies. So I think those ones to me are the most fascinating The running back situation this game is very muddy with regards to you mentioned a jay dylan You know the question marks around his health, but also ronald jones line of for tonight I have no idea what that distribution is going to look like So I think the the touchdown scorer ones to me are the ones that I find that are the most fun with for sure They've been mentioned for net, um, you know, I was going to save this. I do a fox sports column But if you look at for nets carries this season his two highest carry games were the playoff games And I don't necessarily know how much of that has to do with the jones injury Or you know, we know for nets a good closer. Uh, some of his fourth quarter numbers in jacksonville were extraordinary He's a derrick henry. You don't want to have to tackle a 230 pound guy in the fourth quarter After 45 50 minutes of football. Um, and for nets been pretty good You know, maybe it has to do with we don't want to put we don't want tom brady airing it out 45 times in a game Let's hammer away with for net because if you look back at that earlier meeting Tampa and the saints, I think, you know the second meeting the 38 three bloodbath They had like three carries for ronald jones. I think um in the whole game and they Established the run is mocked and obviously funny, but um, they're gonna need a ground game here They're good and I do believe for net could be in line for Uh, well, I don't you guys probably have the numbers in front of you. I'm curious as to if is he over 50 yards or no Uh, 42 and a half is his number. Well, I mean given the last two weeks ed does that sound low? It sounds a little low, but I don't really love how they've been able to run the ball like I think their real strength Their real strength isn't going to be throwing the ball to those top notch receivers And then also you got to think of the game script too because greenbay has been really good at getting off to leads So, um, you know, I still think Tampa Bay can win this game. I mean, they clearly have The engines, but I I don't know if it's going to be a situation where they're up in the second half And really growing the ball giving for net those chances to to get over that total I will say for for you jason that in that first game It seems that the game plan for Tampa Bay was to run because their early down the first half pass rate was 48 percent I believe in that game. That's a very low Number they were trying to run the football. So that does back up your point. If you Last week, I think acres had a pretty solid game, right? They just you know, unfortunately Packers scored five straight times. Yeah, right Well, that's and that's a good point too Like greenbay sometimes does not care to stop the run at all so they actively just don't care Like that is their mindset on defense. Okay, so we're checking out some mvs props checking out some letter for net props and Liking the Packers in general here. What about the other game? We got the bills and the chiefs chiefs three point favorites total here It's 53 and a half and before we start the recording of jason today Patrick Mahomes got in a full practice for sunday's game, which means that it seems as if there is a 107 percent chance Pat Mahomes will play on sunday against Buffalo So are you good to fire away now or does that tell injury give you pause around how you want to dabble in betting this game? Yeah, I mean, you know, is it a big show? Did they do a big show today to make sure Mahomes got out there just so the independent neurologist? Which he still has to get cleared by um To kind of Hopefully influence things so he plays and like then it gets muddy and then you're talking about are they forcing him out there? Is he wanting to get out there? Well, he was running in the tunnel during the fourth quarter. He's fine Listen man, obviously player safety matters a ton, but the toe injury. There is something there um This is a guy who last year in the postseason was pretty dynamic running the football He had two rushing touchdowns in the playoffs last year. He only had two all season this year Um, my guess would be coming off that injury and the toe He ain't gonna be doing much running against the bills but It's tough for me not to uh, look at the chiefs here if did you say it's a two and a half It's it's a two and a half some places. It's a three at vandal sportsbook. Uh, it's three minus one fifteen So it sounds like uh, vandal sportsbook is very much shading towards Not going to two and a half, but I haven't seen some two and a half elsewhere But at least here it is still three So there is actually some pretty decent discrepancies based on where you're betting this game So I I don't know. I know I'm sure ed's not gonna like this gym. You may not either, but when you look at the I'm reluctant to say the public sentiment around this game If you talk to your friends and you text your buddies and you go on social media There's a lot of people who like the buffalo bills here It almost feels like they're a square dog and I know that sounds silly Um and the numbers, you know shoot that stuff out of the water, but I'll say this I think the bills have covered seven of eight Uh, not covering against the colds and the chiefs have not covered. I believe in their last nine games and there's the mahom stuff It almost feels like The general public loves the buffalo bills here and we're forgetting that you know, this is still patrick mahoms and tyreek hill and andy reed and I mean, this is gonna sound silly also, but Do you guys know when the last time the buffalo bills trailed in the second half of a football game was? I had to look this up Hail Murray Over two months ago. We haven't seen josh allen face any real second half adversity at all I am curious with no running game to speak of with moss out How is allen mcdermot dabel? How are they gonna call plays because I will say this dabel has started out Hey, let's throw on everything early. Let's throw throw throw I haven't been overly impressed with them in the last quarter and a half or a game and a half I'll say first half, you know, they they showed well. I thought in the opener against the colts, but I just I'm curious how this buffalo bills team will do playing from behind if that is the case in the second half Well, that's kind of I think the the time where you see the Like that we've seen the bad parts of josh allen be reduced significantly this year But there have still been times thinking back to the rams game specifically I think it was week two or week three He had the bad josh allen in there at times still like that game He went he went a little psycho a couple of times. There were several incidents there And if he's put in a bad spot like you were alluding to it's possible those come back I I don't know if he's fully eradicated the The the negative plays from his repertoire. I think that's an interesting angle to bring up here because if they do get down What will buffalo do can they respond or will josh allen? Kind of regress back into some of those those old bad habits where he plays really erratically where things need out of hand and hurry Yeah, so jim First of all josh allen was freaking brilliant against the rams I spent the whole first half cursing that guy because I had the ramside Okay, so yeah over the fourth quarter. Sorry, you're right. You're right You had a couple bad plays in the second half and you know and then obviously the past interference that Made me curse very loudly but I don't know. I think this is a different quarterback in josh allen When you look at my justice's accessory, he's just been so brilliant like onama holmes on Aaron rogers type level and and I think he could do it I think jason actually brings up a great point about game situation right because it's clearly easier to play quarterback When you're up most of the game Buffalo have if not for the hell murray. I think they've won 12 in a row And and that's part of that grain script like he's not down when you're more likely to throw an interception So I think that's a great point jason. Uh, something I need to think about a little bit more Um, you know, I mean my numbers have cheapskate like three and a half three 3.3 So pretty pretty close to where this market is Um, I mean, I'm definitely leaning towards ball flow because I really do think josh allen is has been a great quarterback this year and just just question marks with uh With my holmes and and and his health situation and by the way, like I he's going to pass concussion protocol Because he didn't have a concussion Right. Yeah, that's what the his head never hit anything forcibly Right. I think a lot of these reports says he tweaked a nerve And that's why he was groggy getting up and made it look like a concussion So he's going to pass concussion protocol the the question to me is that tell and and um, yeah, we'll see I don't I don't I don't know if we can know for sure anything about that Yeah, absolutely So jason's still a bit early in the week as you mentioned it is wednesday when we're recording this Any number standing out for you with this game, whether it be the spread the total any player props are checking out anything standing out for you here Well, I I did I want to go back. I think I just said something um about josh allen I I do wonder like this is a guy who In his playoff games, he has had these yolo moments where he drops back and he's like I'm gonna make a play here. Hell or high water and he's kind of loosey-goosey with the ball And again, you can't quantify that. We don't know if it's gonna happen. We don't know what he's like under pressure I just keep going back to his first playoff game and it was his first one against houston where it was Just repeatedly vomiting all over himself. Well, he had that crazy Attempted lateral like that was one of the most obscene plays i've seen in my entire life. You guys said he's a young quarterback. Um We don't know how he's gonna handle some adversity. I will say this I had mike sando on my podcast great writer at the athletic He had a stat that jumped out that uh, the buffalo bills were six and oh heading into the ravens game Averaging I think it was 31 points per game versus epa top 10 defenses Well, they're now seven and oh, uh, you know, the offensive numbers have come down I don't have the numbers in front of me. Chiefs are not sniffing the top 10 epa Right, I think they're 20th if I recall correctly. Uh, josh owen is average 0.45 passing unexpected points per drop back Against top 10 teams this year. That's not the same number that that mike was was citing But I know that number off the top of my head because it was outlierishly good He's been disgusting against those top 10 defenses, but like he said the chiefs are not that Yeah, and do we know anything about brielyn's status? I think he left with a concussion He was limited on wednesday. Yeah I mean, you know ravens had good cornerbacks and dig still had a really strong game Um There's an opportunity for them to break this open. I I do think honey badger who was Absolutely otherworldly against the browns. I mean, he felt like he was in the backfield whenever he wanted to He just he's a magnet to the football He's the guy I would worry about if I were josh owen, you know, he's just gonna be lurking He's gonna have some uh, some blitzes coming out of the secondary Um, I'm hoping, you know, obviously if I'm on the cheese He has a big game Well, uh, jason it's gonna be a fun weekend of games. I am looking forward to seeing how things play out You know, hopefully those favorites can push through for you And you can have a better weekend this weekend than the past weekend last one real quick Had you guys looked at any props for chiefs bills? I haven't dug into the you know, because of the mahomes thing I was I've been waiting but Any props jump out to you So one I will mention to you to have an eye on is john brown. He's a 50 and a half receiving yards right now John brown Is a very good wide receiver and I feel like he kind of gets overlooked due to staphon digs now The reason this number is probably low is because the chiefs Pending the bryland health do have really good cornerback play They have been tremendous against outside wide receivers this year that may lead to some pestons around john brown He didn't have a donut in the first playoff game this year, which was uh terror from iDFS lineups, but He's I think he said 70 receiving yards and like six out of 10 or so healthy games this year and it's a 50 and a half So I would say if you're looking for a player to Check out I would say john brown would be at the front of my mind personally Specifically a fan dual sports, but he's a 50 and a half for the receiving yards there. Okay But I think it's interesting So, uh, you'll have to dig into those and see what fits your fancy by the end of the week That is jason mackentire. Make sure you check him out on the straight fire podcast He is also on talk the line like find him on fs one and fox sports radio jason It was a pleasure having you back here in the fan dual sphere. I appreciate the time and good luck to you this weekend Thanks a lot guys. Good luck to you as well. Thank you appreciate it Covering the future Big thank you once again to jason mackentire for swinging by and breaking down the conference championships and ed I always find the discussions around josh allen fun because like It's okay to admit that we were wrong I'm I'm wrong a lot. So I get plenty of chances to do this, but like I feel like I'd rather admit that I'm wrong about josh allen than sit here in stew and get angry every time that he He makes a good play because like you said he's just a fun player to watch And I think that I would much rather admit that i'm wrong than just dig in I will never admit that wrong about jerry golf that will never happen, but With josh allen's kind of the opposite Um I will admit that I was wrong there because it just allows me to have more fun watching the game I'm okay being wrong if it allows me to have more fun Right for sure. I mean, I think being wrong is a big part of this business if you're wrong 45 of the time it's pretty good and And and I think like yeah, for me you have to be you have to be willing to swallow your pride. I mean I Begin of the year I did not think much of josh allen But you know through a combination of the numbers and through watching games Like I think it was like the tennessee was tennessee the monday night game That they played tennessee was a monday night game where people started to rag on him again But his actual play within that game was not as bad as it would look if you looked at the numbers And that's the game where I was like, yeah, they're losing But he's on target with every one of these passes It's like so what and then you know, you then you see the numbers later and they're top five and they're still top five and Um, you know, when I look at adjusted success rate, they were one for a while. They were first for a while But they've fallen behind not not a great a game against a pretty good Ravens defense But yeah, I I mean, I think in life you have to be able to take in new data and change your mind about things Like that's that's just part of being a reasonable human being Unless they're jaren goff in which case I will never be reasonable. I refuse You will never you will never get me to go down with this sinking ship Let's dive into covering the future and add your covering the future is one you can actually bet at fandall sports book later this week because Yeah, online Wagering is becoming legal in michigan on friday Congratulations. Oh, yeah. So so online sports betting is going to be legal Uh in michigan on friday, which is is pretty cool And yeah, but I might not bet this game because I'm sure john shear and might be the first, you know They're having their meeting right now about what side they want to take and And it's uh, you know green Bay is a three-point favor, but I wouldn't be surprised that they stake their stake in the ground and uh and put this at two and a half before before everyone else gets there. Um, I mean, I like Tampa Bay in this game. I feel like I could say almost So this is what I was saying. I have this whole thing prepared and I'll talk about some of it, but Think about it this way like I feel like a lot of the same things I felt last week Um, you know, uh, new Orleans is a good team. Yeah, they're good And and I believe more in green Bay's offense than I do in New Orleans offense, but New Orleans has much better defense than green Bay, right and At the end of the day, I still believe in the upside of Tampa Bay's offense Um, I I still think they're a lot better than than the numbers are and, uh, Spoiler alert. I like Tampa Bay plus three. Um, a couple things that, you know, we should look at like, you know Packers were very good last week against a very good Los Angeles rims defense, uh, 61 success rate compared to an NFL average of 45 percent You know, you could make the argument that Oh, Aaron Donald wasn't effective because he had that that rib injury But you know, everyone else on that unit was there, right? Like I think they get credit for what they did against that unit And when you look at their schedule, it's not like it's not littered with great defenses at all Because the last great defense they probably played. I mean the Bears Were good the week before But they kind of weren't the same towards the end of the season, especially defending the pass So the last good defense they probably faced was Tampa Bay So that was week six and in that game they had a 36 success rate, which was by far green Bay's worst total of the year Okay, so I never put too much stock in one game. I think they'll do a lot better this time. Um, But like Tampa Bay does bring in a really good unit to this game Um on the other side of the ball. Yeah, you know, like I believe in Tampa Bay's offense They're seventh when I look at adjusted success rate in terms of passing. I think they're better than that Brady's numbers Brady's passing grades have been great. Uh on pff. They have elite receivers Same stuff. I've said all year, uh for actually for the last couple weeks. So When when I look at my numbers like every metric that I have that go into my ensemble has this as a really tight game within one point overall The model says green bay by I mean basically a push right like green bay by by three tenths of a point And I think Tampa Bay is even better than what my numbers say. So like I'm I'm definitely going Taking the points here with Tampa Bay And this is not a new thing for you to be talking about specifically the upside of Tampa Bay's offense We had our standalone podcast with just you and me back in week 15 And we're talking about the futures market and I asked you which team entices you in the futures market And you said Tampa Bay because you were looking for offenses that had untapped upside and specifically the offensive side You said I think they have untapped upside And we've had five games since then I would say their past two games have been their best two offensive performances Considering opponents probably the entire year for Tampa Bay's offense Like they've been really good the past two weeks against two good pass rushes, which have given them fits in the past so You've been saying this for a while It's not like you're buying on the on the the bandwagon late here or anything And I think that that's valuable to have so I think that this makes a lot of sense I'm also very jealous of you having michigan with the legal online sports betting because uh my governor Has decided that they want to do it through the lottery, which is what washington dc has done and that's been a dumpster fire Yeah So there will be no competition So I might need to bunk with you in arbor Because like we have it now at casinos you and I think that's what you have in michigan right now Is you can go to the casino in person? But that's not great during a pandemic Which makes the legal options pretty uninticed and so I am very jealous said I'm very jealous of michigan as a whole And I wish that uh, I wish that common sense prevailed in my great state of new york as well Yeah, well, hopefully it will I mean it has been a long wait here as well because um, basically the The casino is a loud sports betting as soon as the pandemic hit Right, so they were going to do it right before march madness and now we get it today. So Um, so that's a good thing one more thing about uh, tamba bay at green bay Uh, I talked to peter bukowski of lockdown packers weeks ago and we talked about teams that he didn't want to play Uh, one of them was tampa bay for sure Uh, one of my good friends is a big time green bay fan rapidly rooting from new orleans last week Um, so I think that tells you a lot about right this game as well Absolutely, so we'll see how that one goes Uh, and I actually have a similar line of thought with you here because my covering the future is the over in that game 51 and a half and a lot of the same thought processes apply where we think the tampa bay offense is really good I agree with you there wholeheartedly. I also think the green bay offense will be able to move the ball here So I think the over is in play here. I actually think both overs are interesting The bill's defense, I think that there is some legitimacy to them playing well I know that what jason said is fully valid about them, you know in the indie game not being the best But it gets me skittish enough or when you toss that in with the potential for some rain and patrick mighomes's toe I am okay Feeling better about this total than the other one. So i'm going to go the over here at 51 and a half For the packers versus the bucks the concern here With games in green bay will always be weather, but it looks fine right now right now 29 degrees just 11 mile per hour winds. No precipitation. None of that bothers me And that's good enough for me to have the green light here and both these defenses are solid But neither is elite that's especially true against the pass the bucks Seventh against the pass for the full season based on number of fires metrics packers are 13th That's good, but it's not great and last week the packers as you mentioned We're facing the league's second best pass defense. They put up 32 points in that game The bucks are facing alerts the the league's third ranked pass defense. They scored 30 in that game Both these offenses did well against better pass defenses last week than what they'll face this week The packers aren't a super fast team They finished 31st this year in situation neutral pace according to football outsiders But this will be an up tempo game for them because the bucks finished fourth and schedule adjusted pace Antonio brown is kind of the one injury question mark in this one. He did miss practice on wednesday But he's not a huge part of that offense He has 16 percent of the team's targets in the games with Mike Evans healthy Just 11 percent of the deep targets there It's Mike Evans who is the moneymaker in this offense and he's fully healthy So the sets of it as a game where I'd expect At least the packers would be very pass heavy They threw 67 percent of the time they're only down to the first half in that first meeting The buccaneers did run more but now ronald jones not fully healthy So I'd expect there to be some passes in this game I'd expect those passes to be efficient against these defenses, which means I expect there to be points So I'm going to take the over here 51 and a half and go with this green bay versus tampa bay game So we're both kind of on the same page here where we think the tampa bay offense is legit Which leads us to different paths But kind of the same reasoning to those paths for this game for sure and the green bay's offense is legit too, right? So they've been They've been fantastic So I drew densic on on the football analytic show And you talked about the success that la flor is having in those scripted plays at the beginning of the game And you've seen green bay get off to these leads But I agree with you. I see you can see what tampa bay can do Completely expect this to be a close game. Maybe you get some extra points heading into overtime because you know Can't end this one in shy Can you parlay both games going into overtime just because I want that to happen. It's not like a good process bet It's probably a terrible. I think like it's three to one for any game to go to the the To overtime and the rest of the playoffs, but like I think this could happen It could be a lot of fun We're going to see a good weekend in football and I can't complain about that. Uh, the past two weekends have been Less than satisfactory a time So hopefully we crank things up here with the final multi game slate of the weekend That is all the time that we have for today, but ed still plenty of stuff going on outside of covering the spread So what's going on for you over at the power ache right now? Yeah, had drew dinzik Frequent guest on this show whale capper By the way, it's whale underscore capper on twitter. You can't you can't can't miss the underscores. I figured out Um, so I had him on the football analytics show, you know, you know what uh, you know what drew is all about He talked about the games But we talked a little bit more about his methods and the math and some of the techy stuff and then uh, of course we talked about mexican food because That's what he and I talk about When we get together, so uh, it was really good episode definitely check that out and then my newsletter is always available Actually, this week is kind of nice because you get my spread prediction in both games So, uh, you can sign up for that free service. It's at thepowerank.com and then also Yeah, I've been posting videos on my twitter account. Uh, just some short little insights. The there are less than 140 seconds because that's what twitter allows for So I got one coming up on the kansas city chiefs and their secret edge on offense and um, yeah, pretty excited about it's a It's a data visualization this week and i'm excited that uh, I think videos Is like the best medium for data visualization because you can look at the data visualization and then comprehend what's going on with your ears Um, so i'm interested in exploring that both this week with the chiefs and then more so in the off season With the data viss thing it's fully valid because I can't concentrate on one thing for more than five seconds But if I have two different sources shoveling the same information at me at the same time, I will digest it better so as someone who has Terrible attention deficit like I can't I can't pay attention to anything that's very helpful for me So I appreciate it personally and I will speak for everyone and say thank you for that Also, I'm glad that you drew on your podcast because that's my one regret with having him here is that He covers so many sports we always want to talk about okay We want basketball we want football we want some tennis We don't have time to talk with him about like the nuts and bolts of what he does But what he does is so smart that I wish we had more time to like sit back and talk about the the in-depth process He has that's why i'm glad that you have him on your show the football and literature because like That's that's so valuable and it's so it's so fun to hear him talk about what goes into his models Yeah, absolutely and and and I've talked to him a lot about his models and the process But I actually never talked to him about what is the raw data that goes in there? And so that was interesting too. Um, I'll leave it for you guys to go check that out But it's changed over the years as as you would as you think it would and it will probably continue to change as well All right You can find that that conversation with jur dinsik over on the football analytics show and check out the power rank Dot com for all of ed's stuff also check out ed on twitter of those twitter videos at the power rank I am at jim sonnis j i m s a n And yes, you can also follow the fan dual podcast network at fan dual podcast Our daily fantasy podcast for the conference championships the final two game slate of the year will be up tomorrow Are reporting that live on youtube at 10 a.m. Eastern? Uh thursday, I should say 10 a.m. Eastern and also on the number fired daily fantasy podcast feed immediately after that Big thank you to calvin theobald our video producer for running the video side of things here today Thank you cal as always. Thank you to jason mackentire our guest for today Check him out on twitter at jason our mackentire and check out the straight fire podcast check him out I've talked the line and on fs1 and fox sports radio. Thank you to everyone for tuning in Good luck to you with your bets for the conference championships. We'll talk to you once again for our first podcast previewing Superbowl lv. I think that's 55. I don't know. I'll brush up my roman numerals before next week We'll talk to you then this has been covering the spread right here on the fan dual podcast network