 The point is, again, stocks don't go straight up and stocks don't go straight down. There is a pause. There is a rest. There is a reset. Okay? That's very, very important. Welcome to Access a Trader, the number one community for those who are committed to taking control of their trading in order to achieve success, profitability, and longevity. Thank you for joining us. Here's Dan Shapiro to help you find your edge, master your process, and own your future. Hey guys, good morning everybody. Welcome to another edition of theaxisoftrade.com, weekend update show. Hope everybody is doing well. So I got sick around Wednesday, okay? Started out of pretty much runny nose, itchy eyes, a little bit of a cough, nothing crazy and as the week progressed, if you guys noticed, there was no video Thursday night. And I got really sick. And the most amazing part about the fact that I got sick, I've been incredibly careful, like really, really careful. I've been, you know, I was one of the very first people, a month, month and a half before anybody to kind of quarantine myself and my family. So I got sick like Wednesday and today's Sunday. This is the first time that I actually went outside and walked my dog. I'm about 80% right now. I still have a lingering cough. The craziest part about it is no fever, like literally no fever, but I felt like I had every single symptom without the fever. So I didn't get tested for COVID. I was like, you know, what's the point, I'm already sick. I quarantined myself. I was literally on the opposite side of the house with everybody in my family. And the most amazing part is now, you know, little by little, I'm getting better. I still think about 80, 85%, at least I'm conscious. I don't have that feeling like death, you know, that death feeling. But more important is, I think I should be fine, at least I'll definitely be fine for tomorrow's trading session. But I think the moral of the story is, you know, did I have COVID? I have no idea. Okay. I don't think I did. But who knows, you know, we're basically year one in this crazy, crazy sickness pandemic. Just try to stay as healthy as possible. The most important part is our health. And you know, again, this is what day five. Most important, guys, stay healthy, stay inside. Again, eventually everybody will get this thing. But let's try not to put ourselves out there that we're exposing ourselves from no problem. So if you guys are under the weather or sick, Godspeed, healthy recovery, hopefully I should be 100% by like Monday, Tuesday. So I'm okay. Okay. I'll be all right. Thank you very much for all you guys who are sending me emails and text messages. Thank you very much. It means a lot. So let's talk about the market. We had a flat week on the market. Okay. If you look at all the indexes, the S&P, the NASDAQ, the Dow Jones Industrial squeaked out a little gains 0.1%, 0.2%. I think the biggest takeaway from last week's session was number one, speculation money was very, very aggressive. Okay. If you look at names like a NEO, for example, you know, like a NEO that had this really, really aggressive run, like a space that we had yesterday from that 22 break, you know, really had a really big break to 2340, you're getting, you're still getting big speculation money hitting the markets. The biggest takeaway that I saw this week was the names that had big, big runs. We've been talking about this for about, you know, for about three, four days, the names had that big, big runs. They stopped rallying. And the most important part that not only did they stop rallying, they stopped rallying after they got upgrades. And I'll give you a perfect example. First of all, here was the big breakout couple of, you know, about a week ago, we talked about this whole level here, 282, 283 on the queue. So we had that. And I started talking about it by Tuesday, Wednesday. The market really needs a rest, right? You guys remember that video? I think it was on Wednesday. Market really needs a rest. And again, when you have a scenario too far, too fast, you can have a lot of names that just get tired and get exhausted. Not that they're done rallying, but the point is again, stocks all go straight up and stocks all go straight down. There is a pause. There is a rest. There is a reset. Okay. And that's very, very important. So what the market is doing right now, you could clearly just see it, you know, from your naked eyes, it had this big, big run up. Okay, stock prices got overly aggressive very, very quickly. And now we're just kind of moving lower here. And the biggest takeaway here is, again, this is the second day in a row that we close below the five-day moving average. Everybody see that, right? Here's the orange line, here's the five-day moving average. Again, if you're joining us for the first time in this broadcast, the five-day moving average, at least for me, is the shortest term sentiment that we could possibly have. Okay. And I do believe still, and we talked about this in the webinar, I do believe still there is going to be a back test coming to this five, to this 10-day moving average, because that would correlate with the exact breakout of the range that we took out that started on September the 10th, right? So if you get down to right over here, somewhere around this 85, 86 area on the cues, it will be a very, very healthy macro structural back test. Okay. So we set some of these charts, and if the market continues to be strong, if the sentiment is strong and the bulls defend the 10-day moving average on the close, then at that point, we'll start turning around and start moving higher if indeed we do get a rally into the fourth quarter. Again, that's a very big if. That's why we always say, we're not in the business of guessing. We're not forecasting, we're not projecting. It's all about day-to-day. Okay. So if you look at the stock market where stocks close either above their supply zones to go higher or below their demand zones to get lower, that's the data that we're trading on. But I think the key point of kind of this discussion is what the stocks didn't do, and I want to show you a couple examples. So Amazon had their Prime Day. We talked about it in the video leading up to Prime Day. There was going to be a run up, right? There was going to be a run up on Prime Day, but everybody knew about Prime Day for about a month, month and a half. So unfortunately, and I kept on reiterating this point, these events get sold. They do. The majority of these events, the Apple, the iPhone event, it got sold. The stock is lower than the iPad event. Amazon got sold. But when we started noticing this week, stocks were getting sold on upgrades. And that is a huge, an absolutely huge kind of a warning sign. So you saw the upgrades that came out on Amazon throughout the week. Big, big numbers, right? They got sold. Roku that's happening, a monster, monster run. Absolute monster run. And again, there's nothing wrong with Roku. Again, it's trying to test its 10-day moving average. On Monday, there's nothing wrong with the stock. It just needs a natural, healthy back test. But the point is, you saw the big upgrades on Roku and it got sold off. And Netflix, again, that kicks off earning season. I think it's on Tuesday. I think they report Tuesday. So they kick off the beta names earning season on Tuesday. They've gotten upgraded now three days in a row. Not once, not twice, but three days in a row. And every single day, not only did the stock not rally, they sold the stock pretty much at the lows of the day every single day. So which basically brings you to the theory going into Monday session. Again, we can't trade past Monday. Again, there's so much fluidity in the news cycle with COVID. And again, guys, remember the elections are what? Three weeks away, right? Two and a half weeks away. You're going to see a lot of volatility. You're going to see a lot of exit polls. You're going to see a lot of COVID news breaking, especially towards the middle of the day. So you have to kind of trade a little smarter in the next two, three weeks, maybe not have that overnight exposure that you've had in the last couple of weeks. And again, granted, there was some phenomenal moves. Names like Tesla, names like ZM. ZM was a phenomenal move. If all you guys have been watching this broadcast, we had this pivot literally from 490 all the way to the 562 area in the last three, four days. It was a phenomenal move. But again, here's the reality. When you're looking at stocks that had these big, big runs and 95% of them lose those ranges or start backtesting those ranges on good news, that's a very, very big issue. So I think going into this week, just understand that, again, you don't need to predict where the stock market is going to be through weeks from now. We don't care about that. We're just trying to trade on information that we're gathering for the next trading day. So for example, I'll give you another perfect example, right? So Tesla had this awesome breakout, right? Really, really awesome breakout on this 449 level. I think we covered this area. If all you guys have been watching this broadcast, this is one of the better trades. I caught Tesla great. What day was that? That was on Wednesday, right? Before I got sick. Phenomenal trade. When right into supply, it was perfect. The problem with that is if a stock is breaking out and it's confirming macro supply and it even confirmed that 462 level, it shouldn't have failed, right? So you have stocks that are overbought, right? Excuse me, not overbought, but over exaggerated for two, three weeks. They're not rallying on upgrades, okay? They're failing ranges after they break out, okay? These are signs. These are warning signs. Again, I think it would be naive and very, very just stupid to kind of avoid these signals. And the most important part going into Monday is if you're gathering all this data and everything is telling you, hey, by the way, I don't know if you should be really, really getting aggressive in stocks, but more important is, hey, look at the evidence. Look what's in front of you. Look what the cues are correlating. The same thing that the market's telling is the stocks are being sold on good news. That is kind of a big deal. So I think going into Monday's session, for some of these names, I am sell-bys. I still think the market is overall healthy, but again, I personally think the market should backtest at least to this 10-day moving average, if not to this 283 level, which is the mega-rise in support on this whole range here. So I do believe it. I'd like to see a reset of the market so we can have a strong, really, really strong constructive rally into the fourth quarter. But every evidence, every piece of data that I'm seeing while charting this weekend is telling me that we should have a backtest. So when you have Netflix three days in a row with upgrades and the stock can't rally, again, I'm not going into Netflix bullish into tomorrow. Now again, nobody knows what's going to happen. Nobody knows what's going to happen with Netflix after they come out with earnings on Tuesday, right? We had ridiculous upgrades. Street High 670, 675 price targets. Who knows what's going to happen with Netflix after earnings? Maybe the stock does go to $700 a share. But again, until they do so, we only can trade on the data that we are getting. So going into this week, guys, again, I am kind of sell biased a lot of these beta names just for Monday. Again, Tuesday we could have a completely different conversation, especially with Netflix releasing their first, excuse me, they're releasing their earnings for the earnings season. That's going to pretty much start a chain reaction for all these beta stocks. So we're just taking it one day at a time, one trade at a time. And the most important part is, again, just stay level-headed, okay? Again, trade the market that you have in front of you, not the market that you want. And so it's very, very important. So these are the key levels. And I kind of want to end this a little bit earlier just because, again, I want to get some rest today. I'm going to stay in bed so I can be 100% fresh for tomorrow. But these are the levels that we really need to hold, definitely need to hold to kind of have a bias going to the next trading session. 286.20 on the queues is the 10-day moving average. This would definitely be an area that you'd like to, if you're a longer-term believer in this bull market theory, this 286 area is a very, very strong level that the market can hold. Again, stocks do go from supply to supply to demand to demand, and they usually do hold at least once that rising support. But this will be definitely the key level here. This 283 level here on the queues, that would support this whole range breakout that started September the 10th. If you look at the SPX, right, if you look at the SPX as well, again, this is the warning sign. And this is my point that stocks usually hold their rising 10-day support. You see this green line, right? You see how the SPX held that 3440 rising support? That's my point. Stocks usually hold that rising support the first time. So if the queues do test that 286 level, you should get a high probability bounce there. So for the S&P, obviously you want to see the bulls hold that 3461 rising support that's very important. And to the upside, you want to see a remount of the 3500 level, which is the five-day moving average to kind of give you a definitive view of what's going to happen next. Again, can a back test come to this whole range breakout that we had on this 3425 area? Absolutely. This would be a mega defense. This would be a literally a huge line in the sand, just in case we lost the 10-day moving average, especially on a gap down. This would be a huge line in the sand because, again, this would define this whole range that we took out on September the 10th. So it's very, very important. Level is obviously over 3400. It's a green line. We go back higher. If you look at the biotechs, for example, again, they actually had a great run, excuse me, off the September bottom. Really, really great run. But now you have, again, another case scenario as setting up here. They broke out of the whole range on September the 16th. And now, again, they're trying to successfully test that area again. Big red flag. They lost the five-day moving average. And this time around, they close below the 10-day moving average as well. So you can see here, again, it's not the point of... It's not the point of that I want to see the market go lower. I think we need the market to go lower. If everybody believes that traditionally we do have an incredibly aggressive seasonal session coming up for the fourth quarter for the market to rally, we need stocks to reset. It would be great if they could just do it in one day. Just gap on Monday. Again, fingers crossed. Back gap down on Monday. Hold those levels. Everything goes red to green. We're back on the horse. So guys, have a great, great weekend. I just want to give you guys a little bit of glimpse to get you set up macro-wise for tomorrow's session. For all you guys who are joining us in the live webinar, please get there around nine o'clock. We usually start morning strategy shortly after. I am sell buys beta for tomorrow, just for tomorrow. Okay, depending how they open up. And obviously, if they start getting stronger, we'll obviously look at channels to the upside. Again, I don't care about being wrong theoretically. Just don't be wrong financially. Guys, have a great remainder of your Sunday. Stay healthy. And with God's help, I'll see you all in the field tomorrow.