 Okay, very good morning. It is Friday 16th of August. Hope you are well before I get into the actual briefing happy birthday to Ose Stubbs in Orlando, Florida Topman and former amplified trader Got a lot of time for Ose. So Happy birthday and enjoy your weekend me Getting into what we're going to discuss then for the briefing We've got a couple of articles really focused on the the Fed and what are they going to do because in a week's time exactly to the day there's the semiannual testimony in Jackson Hole from the Fed Chair Powell, which is one of the biggest platforms outside of the regular eight meetings that the Fed holds where the Fed chair gets to kind of vocalize latest thinking on the likes of Interest rate expectations going forward the health of the economy and so on so that's quite a what is a big deal for markets Particularly at the juncture we're at when it's this idea of is there a looming recession on the horizon and Do we subsequently need more action than just a one rate cut being delivered so far? So we'll get into that in a second. Let's just have a quick before I go on to the headlines review of the charts and fairly quite open to be honest There's not really a great deal of major I'd say market moving headlines for me to report to you Very much so just a continuation of the general sentiment. We had a firmer close on Wall Street It's been a real quite volatile week actually But pairing back some of the hefty losses that were seen in recent sessions Of course on that day when the Dow fell some 800 points other assets of Similarly stabilized cable Continues to kind of claw back some of its recent losses sticking at the center top here With the dollar flap this morning, but obviously had some firm retail sales yesterday And some firm data out of the US as well. Let's not get retail sales Empire and Philly Fed all coming in slightly stronger than expected so not quite a runaway Kind of end of the world scenario that perhaps some of the financial media would have you believe with the inversion of the yield curve That was happening once again earlier this week that kind of talk has kind of abated at least for the moment So I'd say all things being equal It's a fairly tepid open and really awaiting the US session because there is really absolutely nothing scheduled for this morning of any type of significance Obvious things still in play, of course any updates on the trade side of things This of course was the latest that we heard yesterday Which was talking about that China is preparing tariff response as Trump sees a g-call very soon Nothing really new here from what we were reporting yesterday But China as well being very sensitive to making sure that the US doesn't poke its nose into the Hong Kong Situation that's obviously unfolding at the moment. I believe those protests are now into their their third month so Other than that then rather than look at the charts. I'll leave that to Sam Upon how he views the technical setup for the day. Let's run through the headlines and this is obviously the main one power expected to seek another cut despite strong spending and this is a reference point of course to yesterday, but you would have known that as We have been seeing recently in the US is that given the fact that we've had Relatively benign inflationary conditions, but wages have been picking up and unemployment remains particularly low in the US Consumers have been continuing to spend and had ability to do so That's been the one kind of sweet spot if you like for the US economy where otherwise on some of the other more productivity kind of manufacturing activity based measures have been slowing Mimicking this global slowdown. So it's kind of been a little bit of an isolated thing here that the strength of the consumer and That does bring about a couple of interesting things. So Cycling through a couple of different graphics. This is the city economic surprise index for the United States of America Now this is something we we look at from time to time and essentially it looks at the So with every piece of economic data of any significance, you have a median expectation And this is basically an index that derives then well How far did it deviate from the meaning in whether it's a positive a beat or a miss and what we've been seeing is that? you know comparative to Where we were about two months ago when economic data was surprising to the downside We're now starting to see the reverse and I guess yesterday was quite an example of that The kind of three major headline pieces of data all exceeded expectations. So, you know in a world where I Guess market psychology generally is in quite a fragile state particularly with this emphasis on The indicators coming out of the fixed income market at the moment This will alleviate. I would think some of that tension that had been brewing throughout the week for sure But that doesn't mean that the markets really shifted completely. It's just as I said, it's managed to Just calm someone and alleviate some of those fears The the fact is the market is still very confident that the Fed are going to cut at the next meeting on the 18th of September The market is 100% price for that Event to unfold the idea here is whether they go 25 or 50 So it feels like we're in a bit of a rerun of the last Fed meeting when if you remember this got all the way up to 5050 before then the Fed basically came out and said we're not gonna do 50 in a lesser Explicit way and that bumped it to about 75 25 on the day of the decision. So we're kind of back in that same realm at the moment again Obviously, I don't know what the future holds between now and September But my expectation as of right now August 16th is that the Fed Will cut 25 not 50. So again, the fact that they didn't go big the first time I see little reason Both in their strategy in terms of the increments of cuts and also in terms of the actual economic data and the trade situation I don't think warrants of 50 cut is my personal view at this point This is the longer term Perspective though, and this is looking at what markets expect. So Going into 2020 and where will Fed funds be in that point? So here you've got the blue line, which is the the Fed funds rate the effective rate So you can see that was the rate cut. So taking rates down to where they reside at the moment But the pink line you can see it's just been Decreasing really ever since we had that crashing markets at the end of last year So going to the beginning of the year, it just continued to decrease and Market expectations are by the time we get into 2020 at the end of that year You know rates are going to be tracking at around 1% So you're looking about a hundred basis points worth cuts still priced into the market at this point in time An interesting article I read last night Suggested that actually Jerome Powell Apparently has spoken to his other Federal Reserve colleagues and said I do not want you making any public appearances The reason why is because he doesn't want any increased conflict between the government and the central bank I we've obviously had Trump being that even this week As has been his pattern highly critical of the fact that any market downside is obviously accountable to the Fed as far as Trump is concerned Irrespective of that Kind of call from Powell on his colleagues. Maybe kashkari didn't get the memo He said basically He's leaning toward further rate cuts and if I just jump down to the bottom of the article to give you the comment He said I am leaning towards the camp of yes, we need to give more stimulated economy more support We need to continue the expansion and not allow a session to a recession to hit us now very important point here or two For one kashkari is a very well-known dove. He's like the uber dove if you like So this is absolutely unsurprising to hear this type of rhetoric from him specifically and then to He is a non-voting member in 2019. So he doesn't get a vote So despite his views, I think I don't I wouldn't expect that to really shake up the market too much The point being is all of this is leading up to next Friday The Jackson Hole symposium is going to be very important for markets And it will be the main thing. I'm sure that I'll be talking about when I deliver the week ahead briefing on Monday morning So I think between now and then the markets have really got a weight And then you'll hear from Powell and he will give the definitive latest assessment of what he thinks is the correct Imprudent course of action Final few points for me to make as I said from the calendar this morning. There is literally nothing coming out of Significance for UK European markets So I definitely think again the US centric session from a US data point You've got housing starts building permits and then you've got University of Michigan This is the preliminary reading for August. So typically the more market moving if if at all of the two readings The other being the final reading So this today is expected at 97.2 And really that would be no shock at all. That would be a matching of a print back to April of 2019 You know, if you look at the data set of Michigan on a 10-year level, you know 97.2 Would be right up here. So it's still a very high reading in context of the last 10 years or so So as we saw yesterday, I don't think the consumer sentiment is being a particular crucial factor for policy thinking And as such, I wouldn't really be looking for much reaction on the back of that The other things I'll be looking for more So it's just generally key technical levels in equity markets particularly downside given some of the big runs that we've had earlier in the week and I'll be looking out for any further updates, of course on the trade side as well Not that there's anything scheduled, but of course Twitter and so on The final question I wanted to ask and I would like if you are watching this in trading live, so put your Your answer in the chat if you're watching this on YouTube delayed Then I'd like you to comment below on the video, but this is a graphic of Deutsche Bank shares and I was just having a look at them because Deutsche yesterday got down to five euros 88 You can see here from a technical perspective just very loosely their shares have been responding to around six euros Back in June and then they bounce back up to north of seven But now we've broken that previous area of support from about two months ago If I start putting Deutsche on a year-to-date chart, you know perhaps you can see that the relevance of that June support a little more and then if we start looking at a five-year chart you can just see how Hammers Deutsche shares have been if you look at it, you know, even longer term on a max I mean they were north of a hundred euros back in 2007 pre financial crisis and again to reiterate their trading below six euros the question I would like to know is At what level would you buy Deutsche Bank shares? And obviously there could well be the idea that maybe you wouldn't want to touch him at all but the common consensus would be that given it such a Systemically important financial institution to the working of not Germany, but the global financial system given how intrinsic Deutsche is in Lending into nearly every bank of every continent in the world The common belief is that they're too big to fail now if you were gonna buy Deutsche shares at what level is my question Would you want to get in? So we've just breached six. We're at these all-time lows for the stock Leave a comment on the video. I'd like to know what your thoughts are Okay, that is it from me for today. So let me hand you over to Sam. I'm gonna wish you a fantastic weekend Keep an eye on my Twitter account the weekend I will distribute the usual calendar main events for the week ahead on Sunday. Thanks very much guys Yeah, it'll be interesting to see what you guys all think about Deutsche Bank incredibly Down where it is now from even this Five or so years ago having a quick look over the euro to start with We had those those comments out from the ECB yesterday, which Have sort of short markets a touch and and the euro Finally has to be said it was it was hovering in that range wasn't it 112 to 1250 for quite some time getting the break last couple of days and you know decent enough moves to the downside here We have another one of those and suddenly we're near the the lows of the month Loads of the year again. So we're keeping an eye literally where we're trading now. You can see now Just making all very albeit very briefly a new low for for the day could argue That's a bit of a trend line. So we're seeing what happens, you know Can we get that closed below here still a fair bit of time on the 15 minute for that to happen? Euro pound as well low of the day as we speak so euro just unwinding some of perhaps the strength that we've seen Over the last few few days or so and the dollar is is start in the day against some of the pairs On the on the front foot the Aussie in Kiwi just over the last 30 minutes or so have been drifting down and The Kiwi actually just catching my eye here just coming to those lower points That we've got just around the s1 today But also you can see just this whole area this you know this zone job of importance really following the The interest rate decision back on the the 7th. We've just been squeezed in around here Well, there's not necessarily the best trend line in the world or area of support that looks so clean a break of that You've got to imagine there's a decent enough push to the downside as and mention that pound has been trying Over the last so well since yesterday morning really trying to just grind grind higher We did get a break of of that range that we've been in for for a while So similar to the euro we're talking about how it's stuck in this range Perhaps waiting for the break either way is the way to go it just so happen It was was to the upside and you can see we really we pushed Quite significantly higher back to the highs that we had back on the 9th Just looking at this market now It'd be worth just having a look to see can we get any of these these kind of trends on here while we did get that Breakthrough yesterday. We never got the close above and we're just testing that now and I have this marked up on My charts as well. So I just wanted to see what happens here As well for this market going into you know the end of the week will be important Can we get back above yesterday's high but also this trend line and we could perhaps here You know a decent enough push, you know positive headlines over the weekend and suddenly we've now seen The worst of the 120 for a while just putting it back on to that weekly chart. I know We talked about this really from a couple of weeks ago. Just the importance of This trend line break now, obviously we are quite far away from that You know, this would be around 124 still give or take certainly in that I was bringing that 120 here Certainly in the medium term if we can get any push up to there. That's gonna be a real key level But for sure that I would be focusing on and also you can see it would come in back in the 2017 March lows by the time it could get up. That's a really key level that I'd be focusing on still kind of in No man's land Really if we were to get the opportunity to have broken to the downside you got to imagine 120 would have come quite quickly But at the moment, I think the pound to the upside does make a bit of sense certainly The Euro pounds bring this in now You can see just the last few days having Turned a corner after being under pressure for well just so long so long You can see that move there S&P I want to bring this into picture now as well and we this time yesterday We were talking about the importance and I'll just remove today's trading the importance of that pivot and that low and the The previous low before we broke through we're talking about how it's a almost a seven point zone And we came up there around one o'clock and it the buyers just couldn't take over and we drifted back down But as you can see we're coming back into that level now It's massively massively important where we close the day and the week For for this market Can we get back above there or is that going to be the key resistant point? And we start to drift lower to the downside so really key really key You want to line in the sand that that's it there to the downside you can see where we tried a couple of times yesterday to get below 22 which was the low we had back on the 7th and we just couldn't get that close below really key level as you can see Those are your your points that I would have marked up today and that calendar as I was mentioning is pretty quiet in the morning So you know keeping an eye on this since the afternoon will be Will be certainly one to to have an eye on quick. Look at gold We saw obviously some dollar strength against the euro. Yes, they and the dollar strengthened elsewhere But not really enough to to move gold around and we're speaking to Some of the traders about you know if we can get where I had a trend line on These highs here. I was like if we can get above that Yeah, I was saying this around four o'clock So if we can get above this there could be the opportunity to get long you can see it did go higher But we haven't really confirmed that break above while you would have obviously, you know got a nice trade there 11 or so bucks we have come back you found support again with but we are now the other side of it So certainly shorter term if you are looking to get long gold You would want to us to get back above there and pre and the previous low of the day which coming in around 15 27 To the downside a lot of support a lot of support can be found just below where we're trading in the s1 You can see all these weeks here incredible zone around 15 20 where we finished the week Along with the previous highs of yes of Wednesday morning be important as well So we're still massively elevated here You could argue there's a couple of trend lines about to come into play as well Let's have a quick look to see you go look another break of that So gold certainly in the morning looking bearish until we were to get to around this level 15 17 You know bullish above the previous low and then suddenly we are looking towards those highs But just worth you know being a bit patient here is the dollar just trying to perhaps strengthen a Touch and we'll have a quick look over at dollar yen, which we haven't focused on too much recently But that's another market which is worth having a look at today. Just getting squeezed from both directions So certainly maybe more into the afternoon worth having a look what's going on here and again Where we finished the week for for this market will be pretty Important but you can see over the last couple of weeks or the month should we say We are still relatively chocolate seems to be a lot more You know in these big down base for equities The the yen side hasn't exactly strength and massively so for this market here The dollar still wants a bit of it, which I found quite interesting So yeah worth having a look at that into the afternoon quick look over at the backs because obviously we're talking about that Level yesterday inequities in the US to sort of how important that is and the NASDAQ is at that level now and you know while the Dow Jones is Yeah, just trying to break through it as well I'll be keeping an eye what the DAX does which got up to their early morning, but never really came back since Obviously that Euro comment helped push the DAX higher So, you know if we were to get another push towards this R1 yesterday's high previous low of the 13th US Secretary's make it the run from that to go earlier than the afternoon So keeping a close watch on what the DAX does Around the R1 yesterday's high should it get that have a quick look over at oil to wrap it up for the morning And obviously the briefing you can see it's R1 has been their level of interest today along with yesterday's high and some resistance We have back on Wednesday Good line in the sand for the bulls and bears to to have a go at protecting that if you're Of the the idea that we have to or we are going to come lower That's a pretty important point And we're now looking to come into this new range if you like and I'm just going to drag that a bit higher where certainly other than that the push that we had on Tuesday and then the reaction to the down so which cancelled it you could argue between 53 50 and 55 50 We're now in this $2 range where you know prices pretty contained other than those two days So the downside where we had on the 12th, which is also previous high on the 9th And we just can't quite get confirmed above that so from an intraday perspective but also Looking more for next week. I'll be interested to see what happens if we can get above 55 50 and for me That would be a pretty positive finish on the week and even going back to the last few trading days From Monday, you can see that 55 50 of importance And the downside as well. So really important $2 own to keep an eye on for me this week We're keeping an eye on what the DAX does as equities in the US also approach those high levels pound I think it'd be important. Can we get above that trend line that I had on to finish the week? Dolly-yen worth keeping an eye on the afternoon gold Just a touch bearish this morning until we get to 15 17 perhaps and the euro not looking too strong at all Just another shout out to Stunner Stubbs. Hope you're well. Happy birthday. Hope you're enjoying your holidays Hope everyone else has a great weekend And I'll catch you next week