 Yn ymwneud o'r fawr o'r cyffredin i'r bwysig o'r bwysig o'r Brytyn yw'r cyffredin yma yw'r ystod o'r Unedig Europeth. Yn ymwneud o'r bwysig o'r bwysig, oherwydd o'r bwysig o'r bwysig o'r bwysig o'r bwysig o'r bwysig o'r bwysig o'r Brytyn. Rwyf yw'r analysau gweld i Peter Kellner yw y Ywgawch Pwlyn Gweithgwrdd. Fyny, yw'n deall y fawr ar y gyffredin i Unedig Europeth. Mae'r fawr a'r fawr yn fawr, sy'n ddysgu'n mynd i ei fod yn gwybod yw oedd yn fawr, yng Nghymru yn 50% o'r ffordd. Ond o'r ffordd yn ddechrau, mae'n gwneud o'r ffordd yn ddechrau'n cyffredinol yng nghymru ddodol, yn cyfwyl ar y gyrfa o'r Ffwrdd chi a'r Lleidwyr Ddylogaeth wedi bod yn ddechrau'n gwybod yn ymdwylliant sy'n golygu'n gwybod darthoedd, ond mae'r ffordd yn gwybod ac mae hynny yn ystod yn ei wneud o'r gwlad i'r holl, ac mae'n ddysgu'n ystod, ond y fferendim yn ei wneud. Yn ystod, mae'r gweithio'r gweithio'r gwaith yn ei wneud iawn, ac mae'r gwaith yn ei wneud iawn, yn ei wneud ei wneud ei gweithio'r gwaith yn ei wneud i'w gweithio'r gwaith. Mae'r gweithio, wrth gwrs, mae'r gweithio yw o'r gweithio, ac mae'r cwestiynau eich cyntaf eich gweithio eich cynnig o'r Gweithio Gweithio Yn Ymgyrcheg. Mae'r gweithio eich gweithio yn ymgyrch, mae'r gweithio'r gweithio'r gweithio'r gweithio, yn ymgyrch ar y bryddoedd yma. Felly, mae'n gweithio'r cwestiynau i'w ddweud. Felly, yn y cwestiynau i gael gweithio'r cwestiynau i'w ddweud, mae'n gweithio'r cyfnodd, yn yr holl y cwestiynau yn 2010, rydych chi'n mynd yn ddechrau, ond dyma'r cyfrifiadau, ond roedd y peth wedi bod yn hynny'n cyfrifiadau ar y cyfrifiadau. Yn gwybod ymddangosol yn oed, ond dyma'r cyfrifiadau sydd yn cael ei gwybodaeth, bydd yw'n gwneud i'r iawn i ddweud i'r byw gweithio'r lefnodau Britten, ar hyn yn ei wneud, ond ei wneud eich gweithio i'r lefnodau i'r ffordd, ei wneud i'w ffordd i'r cyflawni'r ffordd yn gwneud i'r ffordd yn gwneud ei wneud i'r wneud i'r rherythio ar hynny. Ond, oherwydd yng Nghymru, felly ei wneud i'r wneud i'r ffordd i'r wneud i'r wneud i'r wneud i'r wneud i'r wneud. Rydyn ni, David Cameron, George Osborne, William Hague, rydyn ni wedi cael ei wneud i'r ffordd i'r ffordd i'r ffordd i'r ffordd i'r ffordd i'r ffordd i'r ffordd i'r ffordd i'r ffordd i'r ffordd i'r ffordd i'r ffordd i'r ffordd i'r ffordd i'r ffordd i'r ffordd i'r ffordd i'r gweitharau sy'n gobeithio, i'r ffordd i eurozone sy'n gobeithio, i'r sefydliad of Britain's position within the EU. Very heavy hints of a referendum on the outcome of such negotiation have been dropped. However, David Cameron has not committed himself absolutely to a referendum. He talks about the need to secure the consent of the people in either a referendum or a general election. So, it's unclear actually what the position is. It's all very vague. Now, what's brought about this change from June 2010 to where we are now, the positive start to this rather confused picture. First, I think the euro crisis has the depth of the euro crisis, has convinced a lot of conservative euro skeptics that they were right all along about the euro. They believe that the remorseless logic of what they describe as the remorseless logic of integration involved in the euro will create an opportunity for the renegotiation of the terms of British membership. And it's just taken for granted that the kind of integration that's involved things like the banking union that Britain couldn't conceivably be part of it. And it's not very obvious to me that actually that should be so, that there might well be quite strong national interest reasons why at least Britain should explore whether it could be a member or some kind of associate member of a banking union. So, the euro crisis has brought all this to the fore, but what it's revealed is a much deeper conservative skepticism about the European Union. There are very, very few enthusiastic Europeans left in the Conservative Party. And the modern conservative vision of Britain's place in the world is remarkably one where they are quite happy to see Britain in an outer tier of the European Union. And they assume that if Britain can stay in that outer tier, we can retain the benefits of the single market. Now, this is this position welcoming as it welcoming, positively welcoming an outer tier role for Britain is a very, very big change. It's a big change from the policy of every British government since Harold Macmillan in the early sixties, which was to the Britain must be at the centre of the European Union. And it's also very different incidentally from the traditional anti-European position in Britain, which was also a very sovereentist position. And the people who are the traditional anti-Europeans, they basically don't support this line about the euro zones got to integrate more. What they think is that the euro is bound to fail and it'll be very good for Britain if the whole thing breaks up. And if it brings the break up of the European Union with it, so much the better. Now, that is the position of the traditional anti-Europeans, but it is not the position of the new euro skeptics within the Conservative Party who are very skeptical about Europe, but want Britain to stay in the single market. Now, these people are a mixture of, there are some people like Liam Fox who are basically pro-American Atlanticist neocons and think that the key Britain's relationship should be with the United States. There are some people who have a very deregulatory vision of Britain's future who are basically the continuers of the Thatcherite Revolution, who think that in order to continue the Thatcherite Revolution, we have to be out of Europe because Europe is holding us back. And there are, or at least where the burden of EU regulation is much less than it presently is. But there are also, and I think this is the kind of what I'd call the Cameroon globalisers, the people who think that the EU is basically an old-fashioned concept for the global world. It's a sort of protectionist bloc where the real opportunities for the future are in India and China and Brazil and Latin America. These Nigeria, these are the countries where Britain, because of its unique global reach, can enjoy prosperity. And it's through relations with them that we can enjoy prosperity and the European Union is basically an irrelevance. Now, that feeling is quite strong and you saw it in David Cameron's speech at the Conservative Party conference yesterday, where he was doing the line about some people are going to succeed in this world, some states are going to fail, but we've got to put ourselves in a position to compete to succeed. Now, what does that mean about where they think the relationship with the EU is going? I think there's a spectrum of view in the Conservative Party. Some people think that, you know, would like to simply to secure, I think, a once again secure the social chapter opt out. That would be enough to keep them happy. They want to be free of EU social regulation, but a lot of the people on the Conservative backbenches who are talking about renegotiation are talking about opting out of justice and home affairs. They are talking about opting out of the structural funds. They talk about the burden of regulation in a much broader sense than simply social regulation. They're talking about environmental regulation, consumer regulation. In fact, there's an inconsistency, I think, because they claim they support the single market, but they don't support the regulation, the role of the commission, the role of the court in enforcing the single market and taking it forward. So, I think that there are ambitions to renegotiate the relationship, which I think are almost certainly unachievable in terms of practicality and what other people are likely to accept. What I think this new generation of Conservatives do is greatly exaggerate the strength of Britain's negotiating position inside the EU 28, as it will soon be. They think that the other euro out should be on Britain's side, when in fact, of course, that's not the case and it's been quite a shock to them how upset people like the Swedes are and the Poles, with some of the attitudes that Britain has struck in the last year. They forget that, although it makes good copy in the British press to denounce the euro, that greatly upsets our partners who are in the euro, and also I think there's a bit of a political tide the other way in Europe, which is going to make life more and more difficult for the Conservatives, not easier. The obvious point here is the election of President or Lawned, the possible return of the Social Democrats to government in Germany next September as part of some grand coalition, their emphasis of France and Germany on policies like financial transactions tax. These are going to make things much more difficult to achieve this renegotiation, not easier. Now, I think David Cameron probably senses that this is all very difficult territory for him. I think he also probably senses that if it did come to a referendum in which he was advocating a set of renegotiated terms for staying in, which is what he claims he would do, he has made statements saying that he would never campaign for Britain's exit from the European Union, that this would completely split the Conservative Party, completely split it between the business community, which would suddenly realise that a lot of its economic interests were very severely threatened by the prospect of EU exit, and the kind of nationalist rank and file of the Conservative Party. So I don't think he knows, I don't think he has a strategy for taking this forward. I think it's all tactics. Now, the danger with tactics is that I always remember there's a very famous article that I've once read anyway, I think it's a good article, by a professor called Jim Bullpitt about Britain and the European Union. It was in the book about the big ideas in British politics that David Markham did about 15 years ago. And one of the points that Bullpitt made about European British politics is he used the German expression prima der in an politic, oh laugh if I've got it right, right. Basically, the problem is not the British public, the problem is the way that the European issue is played in the high politics of Britain. It's the way that it's used by politicians in order to advance their interests, not often in internal party questions, rather than in electoral terms. And one of the famous instances of this, of course, was that Harold Wilson in the early 70s was turned round from a position of having supported British membership into a position of arguing for a renegotiation, and initially he sounded as though he wanted to come out, but he didn't and never actually said that. But what turned him round was not the facts of the case, but the fact that Jim Callaghan made a very provocative speech in which he suggested that he would win the Labour leadership if he came out by coming out for an anti-European position. And that inner politics is very important. Now what's the inner politics for the future for Cameron? Can he rely on the core group of people round him in the Conservative Party to pursue a successful renegotiation strategy in the way that Harold Wilson did in the 70s? Remembering that he's going to have to pretend in this renegotiation that he's achieved far more than in practice he actually has, because he's not actually going to achieve very much. So what he's got to have is a group of people who are prepared to claim that much has been achieved when in fact much hasn't. So I think that this is very, very problematic indeed. I'm not going to make a forecast as to what will happen, but as a pro-European I'm jolly worried. Thank you very much indeed brother.