 Welcome, traders, to another Tick Mill Earnings Season Preview with me, Patrick Munnerley, before we jump into today's report. As always, we want to adhere to the risk disclaimer. Most pertinent for today's presentation is the fact that views and opinions expressed by me are solely mine, they're not indicative or representative of those held by Tick Mill UK or Tick Mill Europe Limited. Okay, let's jump into today's report. We're looking at AMD, Advanced Micro Devices, set to announce earnings after the close of trade in New York this evening. We are looking for an EPS print of 56.3 versus a revenue estimate of $5.305 billion. I would say there's a whisper number on the street that we could see the EPS come in as high as 59 cents versus that 56.3 estimate. So in terms of AMD, they've been gaining market share in the x86 CPU market, steadily gaining ground over larger rival Intel in both the PC and server markets. While revenue, sorry, while rival Intel faced production missteps, as it had issues transitioning to the smaller more advanced process nodes, AMD faced no such issues due to its reliance on fabrication partner TSNC. Moreover, AMD's chips are also perceived to have a better price to performance ratio than Intel's. That being said, the broader chip market has faced headwinds over the first quarter as demand for PCs cools post COVID-19. For example, IDC anticipates that PC sales will drop by 10.7% this year to 260.8 million units, a downward revision from its previous forecast. While sales of AMD's EPYC server processors has risen recently, the business could face some pressure in Q1 as customers work through inventory build up in recent quarters, while also becoming a bit more cautious about spending due to economic headwinds. AMD stock trades at about 30 times consensus 2023 earnings. Moreover, the company's top line is likely to see a little to no growth this year and they continue pressure on the client side of the business. Long term growth in the PC market is also likely to remain muted with growth between 2023 and 2027 projected at an average annual rate growth of 2.9%. Moreover, while AMD has a strong presence in the GPU space, its rival Nvidia chips are generally perceived to be more advanced and capable when it comes to AI related workloads. This could limit the upside for the company in the very lucrative AI market. Let's take a look at some of the statistical training patterns that we see around AMD earnings. AMD shares have moved lower in the immediate aftermath of earnings, 8 out of 12 previous reports. On average, the stock moved up 0.2% in the first day of trading after the company's earnings. Based on the previous 12 earnings releases, AMD is more likely to trade lower one day after earnings to close flat. On average, the stock has moved higher by 1.8 cents one week after earnings. From the analysts forecast community, AMD is a buy rating, 41 analysts, we have 22, a strong buy, 5, a buy and 14, a hold. In terms of the one year price forecasts, at the top end of the range we have $200, lower end of the range, $68 and an average of 97.73. From a sentiment and options flow perspective, options traders are pricing in a 7.5% move on the earnings release and the stock has averaged a 6.3% move in recent quarters. The options market overestimated, AMD stock earnings moved 67% of the time over the last 12 quarters. That has been notable buying 21,447 contracts of a $90 upside call expiring on Friday and in general options, order flow sentiment is bullish with investor sentiment also at 71% expecting an earnings beat. Okay, so that said, let's pull up the AMD chart and see if we can identify any near-term trading opportunities. So the technical picture, we have obviously seen a corrective phase and we were in this downside corrective channel on the four hour timeframe. Last week we put in a bullish pinball reversal from just ahead of the 20-week volume weighted average price, which sits at $81.95. So in terms of the technical setup and closed trade on Friday at $89.68 and we're set to open at $89.50 today in advance of earnings. So I'd be looking at any pullbacks into the S1 pivot support here, weekly pivot support at that $87.80. What's the bullish reversal patterns from there to position on the long side? We know we've got that $90 call in play pretty close or close to the money at this stage, but so that gives us some upside momentum heading into the back half this week. If we can then clear the high volume load at $92.50, we look for a test of weekly projected range resistance 94.35. And if we can get through there as long as pullbacks remain shallow and supported, we then look for a test up into monthly projected range resistance at the 102 handle. Through that level, if we really do start to get some upside momentum on this earnings release, 107.46 is the 127 extension of this last corrective phase. The alternative scenario is on the learnings miss and disappointment. We look for a break of the current corrective cycle loads at $83.83.50 to engage on the short side. And I've been looking for a test of monthly projected range support 77.30. And it's the prior highs there before the breakout was retested at $75.85. But for now, picture looks constructive. Earnings have in general been constructed for the tech space. So we look for this idea of getting in on the long side and playing for those upside objectives. As always, traders plan the trade, trade the plan. And most importantly, and as your risk until next time, thanks very much.