 The following is a presentation of TFNN. Trade what you see with Larry Pezzavento. Call now toll free at 1-877-927-6648 or internationally at 727-873-7618. Now Larry Pezzavento. Hi everyone, Baselchappan sitting in for the Larry Pezzavento. I'm sitting in for the hour to even imply that there's a chance that we can do anything closer what Larry does. Nah, nah, nah, nah. Can't do that. So I'm using the hour and I will because in my show The Tiger conditions hour that I do 10 o'clock to 11 Eastern time. Let me just finish this right here. I didn't get a chance to do the commodities as I really wanted to. And since for my subscribers we actually do own quite a number of commodity areas. I thought how appropriate that we just get a chance to at least go through some of this. So let me just say the Dow futures, the Dow itself is down 109. The Dow futures, the continuous contract, the YM is trading down 98. Excuse me. This needs to be in my hour, not Larry's hour. All right, so we've got the Dow down, but this is really important. So let me just do a couple of things here in the Chapman methodology. What's the premise? The premise has always been from way back when I used to hand chart. The Dow chart is going back to when I got a book that had all the prices from 1920 I think it was. I hand charted all those on engineering paper and you can imagine that the little 1922 filled up just a portion of a page. When it came to 1987, the crash of 1987, I had to glue or at least tape pages and pages together because it was one to one in 1920 and the little blocks that I used engineering paper were still one to one, but you were trading in the 2800 area, 3200 area. So I had all these different, I've actually got it right over there, but one of the pages. One day I'll pick it up and I'll show you. So in the Chapman wave methodology, we try to identify the lowest low and then count this as a way of grading each particular higher peak. It can go all the way from a peak A to a peak G, seven higher peaks. Like music, it's A, B, C, D, E, F, G. There's never an H. And you've got your two quadrants, your quadrant number one and then your quadrant number two. In this case you go to a peak D and that says at peak D, the fourth highest peak, other things can happen. Let me just move this to the side. You can see it right here. Let me go to the Dow IND. I hope I'm typing it up or not. Let me type in here. INDU. What was the peak right in the fifth of January in the Dow based on the Chapman wave methodology? A peak D at 36,952.65 in the fifth. And then you see this little pattern where it comes down and makes a little arch formation and fails, the dreaded H pattern. Then there's a bigger one that fails. So let me talk about that right now. We're talking about, there it is. So we've got peak A, P, B, peak C, D and then D can see a much sharper move where you can recycle or you can start an immediate Chapman wave instant restart by going within three bars, starting in another leg up, which becomes E slash A, F slash B, G slash C. And then you get to your D after that. So everything works out. So let me just do that and show you the patterns I'm always looking for. Straight line up, straight line down, arch formation, arch formation or a mix of the two. This is a lowercase H, which can also become a kind of a rectangle by making another H within that. We'll see that when we go through the different things. And it could be very positive or reverse Y. It takes out the left side high and it goes much higher. All right, enough with that. Here we go. So the Dow went to that peak D, the missing peak D we were waiting and waiting for. It did that. We've been long since the 15th of the month. We actually long from the low. We started off in the low of March the 23rd. March the 23rd of 2020. And we've kept our diamonds, which we bought. We had options and we bought diamonds a week later and we've still got a core position there. But within that we go short, we go long, we go short and usually at Ds where I start to consider going short. But we went along the diamonds just under 33,000 in the Dow. And I decided, no, we've taken off one little bit and then we took off on the leg D, which is part of money management. I love the MACD holding like this. I love the stochastic flat at 96. I love the on balance volume just pulling back a little bit. And I love the fact that the nine-period moving average is way above the 14 and way above the 200. Remember all of these techniques Larry doesn't even mention So we're talking about something completely separate, right? The cup formation he does mention in different ways. So he has your cup formation. The target would be 35,000 8 to 24 if it was to fulfill by within a week or so going towards that Chapman inside wedge target resistance line. Most importantly, a close below 34,800 says, oh, oh, filling in the gap and this is not so good. And certainly a close below 34,640 in the next week says, no, no, no, we digesting huge gains. And that's the way we're looking at it right now. Okay, let's go to some of the things that I want to look at. The dollar. The dollar is in a rectangle formation. What is a rectangle formation? It means that you go from a particular high, in this case, 99.42 in the dollar index, you pull back and what do you do in this particular case? We're holding the 97.70s area. We've made two lows today was 97.67 same as yesterday. And what we're looking at is this rectangle has an arch formation and then a second arch formation. And basically what we're looking at is the rectangle can go. My rule of thumb is a rectangle formation can last a lot longer than your patients. That's number one. Number two is let me show you arch formations. I showed them a little bit earlier to to listeners of my Tiger technicians hour. Let me show you this. This is the IWM Russell 2000. Look at that long, narrow rectangle formation. It lasted from back in March 234.53 down to 271. And it stayed that way all the way until it spiked up to a peak here 244.46. We should have put the date in on the week of the 12th of November pullback. Usually with pullback should stop somewhere in the middle. This went right to the base. Took out the base. You made it almost a one-to-one to the downside. This became like a propeller shaft. And now the rule of thumb is that a big rectangle formation also becomes a magnet. So it pulls back and it tries to go back in. So what we're looking at here is in this dollar we starting a rectangle formation. This is that was a week. This is a daily and it can actually last longer than you think. And what's so fascinating about rectangle formation is every time you think it's getting here to the base, aha, this is great. It's going to break down and want to short. No, that's exactly where you want to go long. And when it gets to the top, you think, great, break out. I want to buy. That's exactly when you want to say, hold on. It could be repelled from this triple top. And that's exactly what has happened. So it's stuck in a range. If the dollar at any point closes for two out of three sessions below 97-25, it's changed the pattern altogether. It could come back and revisit its friends back. Yeah. In the rectangle formation, but it's probably going to make lower lows and low highs. So that makes it very simple. Looking at the EUR, U.S.D. This is Basil Chapman sitting in for the hour of Larry's hour, but not for his show. Only Larry could do his show. I'll be back in a moment. The dollar is down 99%. 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We're looking at the euro-dollar currency pair in the daily chart. It's gone from this trough C. It's gone to a leg C. Not a big move, but it is a move, nevertheless. The bank is good. The stochastic is very weak at 69%. And the nine is just cross-positive, but this is early in the game. What we want to look at is, look at this weekly chart. There's a pattern that I look for. It's called the left-side-right-side price-time match. Now, a lot of people say, oh, when we go down, we go down. It's like an elevator down. No, elevator up and a staircase down. Or what is it? The BB road runner down. No, I say that most of the time, except for the last few bars in a, this is not music now, this is in the chart, when we're coming down to the test the left-side low, you can get a big, big acceleration. But look at this. If you choose the left-side low of 1.06364 around about in March of 2020, and it ran up to this doji candle right here, peak D on the 8th of January at 1.23490. Remember this is a continuous contract, so the price might change, but everything else is the same. It gets moved down. I chose a long time ago to make this doji candle at Truff C on the week of the 2nd of April as the midpoint. And then I drew in a green left side because it rallied and then a pink and it was like here. And a pink to the right and I said, if I'm correct, this Chapman Wave inside wedge target resistance, target support line, there's a pink or red, has to be the support and that by the week of the 15th of April, we could see a test of 1.06364. But it went all the way down to Truff D doji candle, long-legged doji candle on the week of the 11th of March to 1.08061. I would say that's pretty good and it's still a steady drum beat to the downside. All of a sudden, you're looking at the histogram of the MACD improving a little bit. The stochastic's way higher than it was before. So there's a kind of a positive here which kind of corresponds to the dollar starting to weaken a little bit and that's why I'm saying look at the beautiful bowl formation in the dollar going to this peak E in the weekly chart. 102.99 was I should mention for subscribers. We are long from April 2018 at 90.07 via the U.U.P. We took a little bit off in the 96 area. We sort of go to 102.99 and then come all the way back to 89.21 and then all the way back here. So this has been a more, not a trade or a position but a position in regard to the U.S. economy because I always consider that the dollar is a representative like Holly Davidson around the world, the icon. So the dollar is the icon of the success of the U.S. economy. That's all. And that's the way I'm looking at. I'm still looking at it this way but we might start becoming really under pressure from all these other external events. Looking at the USDJPY which is the dollar yen currency in a leg E in the weekly chart just a screamer of a move to the upside and we're looking at this same pattern that we were looking at left side, right side, price, time match. Look at this. There were two of them. This is the second one and this one takes the USDJPY high of June of this is a monthly. June of 2015 at about 125, 847. Let's just see if it's there. 125, 847. I take the midpoint of the doji can right here of the November the 2018 at about 112 and I moved it to the right and we are one week away in this left side, right side, price, time match with the Chapman Wave inside track green repellent line going towards the high that was made. What is the high so far this month? 125.101 and this is 125.8 847. Isn't that incredible? I mean we have been down in the 1998 area. So this is the USDJPY yet. So this is a very important moment all around because it's saying currencies might be seeing an inflection point that could take them in directions. There we go. So remember the yen very often follows the dollar in direction not price movement. Look at this price movement going from the 113 just the beginning of March to 125. This is a currency. This is not a NASDAQ stock but it looks like that. And now it says maybe this time for a digestive phase and we could pull back 121 to 120 are going to be very, very important supports. If it starts trading the 118 area it could be time and price that we see to the downside. A peak E in the dating, a lower high next week makes a peak E in that and the whole of April would say the dollar yen currency pair has made a peak E top. But the MACD and Stochastic and the monthly charts are fabulous. Stochastic in the weekly is still very good. The dating is good but it started 75% with Stochastic. That's a little bit of weakness but price is still holding very well. I want you to also do so. Let's just go to gold. Gold. I did something wrong. Let's just go to gold. There it is. Okay gold had this pattern went to a peak E in the December of 207 207 8.80 on the 8th of March this gets smoothed out is is still that price 208 3.7. Yes. So the prices change. The higher of the eighth because it gets smoothed out as a continuous contract pulls back makes the lower case H that goes through a lower case and potential stack in a range above a 19. I just have to say above and a close below 18 1890 the close below 1890 is now we're starting to make low lows and lower highs and that's gold but it's still an icon of fear and it's in play. So at any point you could just get a sudden spike that I would not be shorting gold unless you're a real quick trader but looking at it as I as I am right now it's just in a trading range. Remember the rectangle of this in this particular case it was slightly different because it was a rectangle formation at lows and what happened is it popped up and it's come back into the range. So once again let me just say trading in the night close above 1987 would be very positive and a slide below 18 that's a 78 1878 would be a negative but it's really stuck in a range. So that's gold. I want to do a couple of other things here. So this is going to be the question wheat that's wheat. Wheat made a peak E in the Chapel Way with what I call the Chapel Way of Roman Candle. You see this candle where it opens makes a fractional weak plunges and it comes back and then closes halfway to two-thirds above the low. I call that a Chapel Way of Roman Candle. Rule of thumb if we go halfway into the wick on a shorter time frame and hold for a certain period of time there's a real good chance you're going to test the low you're going to break the low. It took two days not only did it break the low but it fell sharply. And now you remember gold I said if it takes out that left side low you can start to make lower highs and lower lows. Wheat is doing that it held the 50 period moving average but it's peak E in the dating peak D in the weekly and a G slash C in the monthly so wheat's continuous contract even with everything that's going on is holding well but it's way off the high that was made on the 8th. I'll be doing some of the other currencies Basil Chapman sitting in the hour all day. Are you having fun trading the markets but having trouble finding like-minded individuals to discuss your trading and investment ideas with? Become an Apex Predator in the trading markets and join the Tiger's Den trading room only at TFNN.com The Tiger's Den is an exclusive trading room where successful traders from around the world come to exchange trades and ideas. Join the Den and surround yourself with the sharpest minds in the trading world. 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I did see your name and I said I'd come back, but there was so much going on that I just completely forgot about it. I'm not sure if you're still there, but you did want to talk about CLVS, but let me just quickly do this LGVN. I mentioned in the den there was a question about long, I can't even see long, long, long, very long, longer verum, Inc. and it's up 3.55 at 10.30 just moments ago sent to the den saying if you're all long, you've got to use it as a trading vehicle and get in and raise your stop as a trading stop. The question was I said it's just too risky early on, but then I looked at it and it was trading at about 9 something and I said, yep you could do that, but you've got to have a stop that is a trading stop and at every 25 cent increment you've got to take a little bit off. So that was that boom LGVN through 10 as Jim Morrison saying come on baby run with me even if long from 6.23, hey congratulations yep that is a really nice move, it's trading at 10.30 so let's go back what was that again I'm going to do this because I had a question, I'm sure Brent is still not on the line that would be too long, I'm so sorry Brent I did see your name and I meant to get to you I had actually discussed it in the dense CLVS, in fact I had discussed it earlier on, CLVS is cloverous in fact I spent a little time on it because it was purely coincidence that it was a stock that I had on a particular chart from way back and when I went there today because I wanted to use it, there it was CLVS which is cloverous oncology ink trading up 91 cents, up 55 cents a percent up 90 cents at 255 yeah this is almost the same thing but the other one was weak, it gapped up it did well, it was holding well and then I saw it to scream to the upside so all I'm going to say is I'll go through this again, the risk reward for a cloverous ink, I'm not sure Brent you usually are looking at these closely before and I wouldn't be surprised if you actually had it in the 160, 170 area and here it is up, it had a high today of 288 and I'm sure by now you've taken some of it off so Brent is back, hi Brent how are you Brent is back is Brent there? Yes I am, how are you doing? I'm doing well, how are you? I'm doing well so I did cloverous in my show that I get technicians out earlier on because it was just purely by chance of someone in the den said cloverous and I said oh isn't that funny in the chart I'll just show this chart right now I went to this chart right here and right in the corner, this is my Dow chart I show subscribers every day, I see oh CLVS and it was trading yesterday at one point something and I picked it up I thought oh that's interesting and then I ignored it because I use it for other purposes but it's just what a coincidence that's all I'm saying okay tell me about cloverous, what are you doing? Oh I just called I had been involved in this stock for a long time I first bought into it back in kind of ladder 2019 if you look on that chart you'll see where it got down to like 350 something I bought it more around 5 and it ran up to 17 and then I just followed it for quite a while and I did buy some from my two sons I bought the January 20, 24 $2 calls on it they have that's the only reason I called about it honestly so you know there are a couple of things that's going on so this is in the oncology area, biotech cloverous oncology and a couple of things are going on in your case you've had experience with the stock you've seen the way that it can move 100, 200% and then can give everything back so you understand that particular process there are a lot of new people now that have started trading they just aren't used to that not only that you've already said that it's something you've kept in mind you've followed, you've held some so this is the only way that you can really trade or we have a couple of people in the den one in particular who loves to do the analysis especially in the biotech area and looking at the different phases of approval the FDA where they are what stage it is and those are all very important but the most important aspect that I can think of in biotech is that number one is that it's so unusual to see what's happening today at 56% because a lot of the time they have very quick moves but they give them back so it's the process of the mental atmosphere that permeates when you're in a stock at 3 and it goes down to 1 but you really believe in it so in the biotech area I think it's more important to do your homework, understand the vernacular that you're dealing with and be prepared to hold for a while because it's nothing that you're going to get out of unless it goes broke because at some point you're like the particular projection that they have of whatever medical aspects they're working on and in this case oncology obviously and anytime you can get the news and then there's this big spike and sometimes you could get it at 3 and it goes down to 1 and it has a huge spike but it only goes to 2.80 and then it goes back down again so there's a process when it comes to the biotech there's a mentality that is very different to many of the other areas in the market so I think you appreciate that so I congratulate you for holding on and just doing your due diligence and what have you taken off right now? I'm hanging on I bought that one as down around $1.50 I bought them those $2 calls that are way out there because they do have an approved cancer drug which when I was in it earlier it was already for ovarian cancer and then they had an expansion of that into what do I want to say prostate cancer and I guess they had a good result on the ovarian side and that's why it's getting the pop today but I just thought that longer term for them they're younger than me they're like my oldest son is 30 so I just thought that it would be something that at their age they could hang on to over a period of time and at that price I thought we were taking a shot at I love that that's another way of looking at the market that in fact is one of your one of your very different perspectives because there's another perspective where you are prepared to do something really quickly and take what you can and then wait and see what happens so I like the fact that you have the flexibility because that's really important in the market congratulations thank you Basil yeah I do generally I am the speedy speedster normally but there are also times that I just take a longer term view on things as well yep I tend to have the same I can be like a snail or I can be like a grasshopper I don't know what it is but I can be real quick the rabbit in the hair and the tortoise I guess oh that's a fantastic book called the hair with amber eyes talking about hairs that's a very interesting talks about the Japanese was it was it Chinese these little ornaments anyway that's another story so hey thank you for calling I appreciate that and congratulations alright thank you Basil you take care have a great day always like hearing from you thank you Brent so folks it does down 141 recipes down 9 there's a lot of selling pressure coming up of all that buying that we've seen but the day is young we're going to see where we close at the end of that Basil Chapman sitting in the hour 11 o'clock till 2 o'clock at the 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receipts went to 82.72 from 289, over 200 points and it was a fantastic, it was a great company just wasn't in the wheel house of the market gain 82.70 to 149 round, you know, a lot of round numbers, especially at a peak D. So it's pulling back some of the magnies, good stochastics, good on balance ones, very weak rental strength is starting to weaken. So I think there's a lot of resistance here. And if you can see this will be a good market indicator for say the QQQs or ARKK, that's Kathy Woods innovation ETF. If Square can start to trade, not just go there, but if we can start to trade in the 160s any time in April without closing under 137, that's going to be really good action. But it's got a lot of work to do. So that's Square had a question about that. Can I show the chart? And the other one is, so let me just finish up here. Soybean, continuous contract, where did I type that? Yeah, soybean. S is a symbol continuous contract made a peak E. And there's a rectangle formation rule of thumb in the wreck big large rectangle formation is if it starts to make higher highs and higher lows, it can do a peak A, a peak B, a peak C, even a peak D just under right on or just above the previous high and then go back into the rectangle. What did it do? The continuous contract had a higher of 1716. Let me just see what it is now because it gets smoothed out 1759 and a quarter, excuse me, on the 25th of Feb plunges down within two days. I mean, what a move. It plunges down to 1579 round number low and then goes peak A, peak B, holds the left side low on any pullback, peak C, holds it and then goes all the way to a peak D and the 23rd of March at 1736 and a half, a little bit under the previous high stuck in a range, peak D in the weekly chart, also with a left side, right side price time at only a peak, a leg B, a peak B, if not today doesn't make a new high, which it won't. So it's a peak B in the monthly. You should still go to C and D. I'm going to get to that in a moment. Had a question about this. I'll go there. This is a corn, makes a peak D on the same day it was at March, on the 4th of March at 762 and three quarters pulls back and then goes H pattern, second H pattern to a peak C and fails underneath the previous high, takes out the left side low, is a lot weaker just on the shortest term basis. The weekly chart is still strong and the monthly chart is only in a leg C and it should make a left side, right side price time match going to the previous high that was made. This is a continuous contract of the price of change, but the high of August of 2012 at 870 and a half, it should get there and it should get there no later than the summer. That's the way it's looking right now. It's in leg C in the daily chart, right at the chapter, inside track, sorry, inside wedge, repellent resistance line right there, target repellent line and the Matthews Goods stochastic is very good at 91 percent and we're talking about, so coffee was the question, KC, coffee is trading makes, maybe makes a peak E this month in the, there's a continuous contract as the monthly chart made a peak F in the weekly chart made a peak D, right there 260 ish, 260 on the 10th of Feb at 260.5, pulls back to what? The 200 period moving average, trough A, trough B, trough C, trough D, trough E, trough F that's going to peak A, peak B and if it goes just a tad above to 8.65 and starts leg C, the magnies improving, stochastics improving, was still weak, on balance volume is improving and the pink 9 period moving average is under the 14 period moving average, if it crosses positive there should be a quick move to 233 and what was the high on the on the 9th of March 235.90, that would be my target, key support is at 224 to 221 right now, it'll go into a rectangle formation if it fails right here, so that's corn and there's coffee, what else was I going to do? Bonds, now he always talks about bonds and he trades bonds, so this is a nice move up from a trough D, a peak D at the 200 period moving average right here and that is the this is a 30 year T-bond T, this is at US 30 year T-bond continuous contract the high of the 7th of March at the 200 period moving average, those 3 bars tested, fails at a peak D, makes the Eiffel Tower straight up, straight down move, looks like an uppercase, I always put this in just so that you can learn about these different techniques, I usually put it in right here, I usually put it like this to show that it's only a demonstration and then I make this very big and then I take it and I make it red and you can see the Eiffel Tower straight up, straight down make the font nice and big, oh is that pink or is that red, should have been red, red and there it is, all right and I take it and I just move it down right here and there it is, there's the Eiffel Tower straight up straight down and took out the left side low and it made a one-to-one to the downside and I think that oh and this is what I wanted to show you as well, another technique in the Chapman Way methodology, we're looking at the weekly chart of bonds, look at this trend line, see this inside track little channel that becomes the support level, the propellant zone, well it's used to, it's like a propellant zone but we need to see the histogram start to improve in the weekly chart of the MACD, the stochastic is a little bit better than it was at the previous low and on battle's bottom is trying to turn up, so this is just the start, I think yields are going to go higher but in the meantime there could be some kind of a balance in bonds so that yields can pull back somewhat, if you're looking at the TNX wow I used to have this going all the way back 50 years or so but for some reason trade station just, I don't know why they stopped carrying all that data it was just beautiful to see, so look here is the TNX weekly chart, let me squeeze this a little bit one, two, three, there, so it's gone towards this high, this series little cluster formation at 2.356, 2.356 it's intellect G slash C, this week is so far is a lower high so we might, oh let me show you this, this is really important there, this is the long-term charts and the white is the TYX, the 30 year T-bond yield, the brown is the TNX, the 10 year yield and the cyan light blue color is the 5 year ever VX, here we go, come before the break, here we go okay hey hey hey you're supposed to come in before the break finishes there it is, there we go, there it is, so on the left you see talk about an overlap that 9 over the 4, the 10 year was taken, the 5 year went above the 14, now it's pulling back some so this is going to be really important for flattening of the yield curve now look at the ice shares, a timber of forestry, sharpening your skills as an investor is like getting better at playing a musical instrument you have to practice, sure, but you also need 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Petersburg Florida your investment can be anywhere from 100,000 to 500,000 you want to make 1,000 per year on 100,000 invested or 7,000 per year on a secured Tiger First mortgage the Tiger First mortgage program may be just the program for you the Tiger First mortgage program pays 7% per year paid monthly for more information you can call 877-518-9190 that's 877-518-9190 Hi everyone I'm sitting here for Larry and I didn't see it because we've got this new system here which is starting to work great except some of us are getting used to it I didn't see that Larry was on the phone from London I believe I'm so sorry Larry I would have loved to have spoken with you what can I say just the best of luck to you over there and I'm taking I took this hour and I knew that you were not going to be here today so I did the hour and doing the best I can thank you so much for calling I wow I would have loved to have spoken to you what can I say the meantime let's just do a couple of things are wrapping it up here I thought of something as we were about to go wrap it up oh let's just look at this the volatility index look the volatility index is up 51 cents at 19.84 it's got the arch formation looks like the Eiffel Tower right straight up straight down is pulled back from the 37s 3837 area up in the the flurry of all this negative activity earlier in March and Feb and now it's down to 19 and that's just saying there's buying pressure that's number one so if the VIX index by Monday or so starts to climb into the 22 or higher area then we can start to see some kind of a pullback at this particular point we're really looking at the market holding pretty well even though it's down 140 in the down down down five so what I am going to look at and I'll talk about it tomorrow in my show the Tiger technicians our Friday we do a little more technical stuff based on the travel way methodology is where is this monthly chart of the S&P in the travel way methodology remember I spoke about a buy signal going to a buy mode which the monthly is in should go to at least a D we're at peak B I don't know how that works but we should go about 48.18 .62 sometime this year and actually in the next couple of months if not sooner so I'm going to be doing a webinar for my subscribers from opening call Wednesday a week the 13th of April and we're discussing a lot of these aspects one of the implications why what technical aspects can be used remember I spoke about the look at this this is just using one particular index series of moving averages look at this here's the S&P there's the S&P and a monthly chart look at this black background you see this green line starting right here February of 2010 that green line has been a buy all the way through to today isn't that incredible it's just one technique that you can use we actually all along from the the low of the 6th of March we went along sorry 20th of March 2020 have a wonderful rest of