 Thank you, thank you very much Eric and thank you to all of you coming out tonight It's wonderful to see such a big crowd and wonderful to hear that It was booked out for tonight. Obviously. There is a great deal of interest in this subject Before I begin I want to open with a quote from someone who I think is One of the world's greatest broadcast reporters working at the moment John Simpson from the BBC John wrote in the new statesman late last year on a piece on IS Islamic State. He said you have to hand it to Islamic State It's not only good at capturing towns and cities cutting off the heads of its enemies on a camera Selling off 14 year old girls into sexual slavery carrying out mass executions with great efficiency and cutting videos to music It's also managed to persuade us that it can't be beaten Just last week Iraq's Vice President Ayodhelaoui Dismissed reports that the US-led coalition forces have weakened the Islamic State group and in a report on the International Business Times website a couple of days ago. Alawi is quoted as saying in Davos when he was attending the World Economic Forum ISIS is getting stronger. It's not true that they have lost control in Syria and are losing control in Iraq Let us face the facts as they are Now his warning came as part of a plea for greater cooperation among Arab countries in the fight against ISIS an effort he described as currently chaotic and Uncoordinated and he went on to say that without really an effort to get things moving with a structured strategy Not only in Iraq and Syria, but globally Then it will not work. We will not control ISIS He said without this the region is going to be exploding more than it is now and the whole region will be engulfed by fire now obviously very bleak and alarming words and it was in stark contrast to words from President Obama during his State of the Union address last week Where he said very clearly in Iran and Syria American leadership is Stopping ISIL's advance instead of getting dragged into another ground war in the Middle East We're leading a broad coalition including Arab nations to degrade and humiliate and Ultimately destroy this terrorist group. The effort will take time. He said It will require focus, but we will succeed Now the rise of the so-called Islamic State has introduced another complex dimension to an already volatile Middle East It's forced a set of new alignments and Re-alignments along multiple regional fault lines including sectarian divisions and geopolitical rivalries IS has Confronted all the regional states from Iran to Saudi Arabia with a common enemy Yet It is the United States and its Western allies that have taken the lead in launching a military intervention to degrade and eliminate is Despite the US's lack of successful track record in the region in the past which of course Raises a number of questions Tonight is an attempt to unpack the nature of the mess that has become of the Middle East a Region so turbulent and yet so rich from which the world Cannot simply disentangle itself and we are very privileged and fortunate to have as Erika said one of the world experts On this region here with us tonight professor. I'm in cycle. I mean there are so many questions It is hard to know where to start on this one, but I think perhaps given we've got quite a bit of time we should start a Little bit further back. Let's go back to Iraq and talk first about How a vacuum of power was created in Iraq in the first place that has given space for the development of IS I think the origins of the so-called Islamic State Really go back to the 2003 US-led invasion of Iraq The invasion itself was very successful but the US handling of the post invasion period Was incredibly messy They did they definitely had a plan for the war But they did not have a plan for how to win the peace afterwards, I think the biggest mistake that probably the United States made and the American Leaders probably would acknowledge now it was the process of debatification dismantling the Iraqi bureaucracy the Iraqi administration and the Iraqi security forces Just simply because that they felt that they had been Associated with Saddam Hussein's regime in one form or another That amounted to two basically the dismantling of the Iraqi state and that generated a massive political and strategic vacuum Which opened the way for various societal groups? which had been Divided along ethically sectarian lines to come out and fill that vacuum Just on the vacuum itself our how is it that? There wasn't enough consideration given to what was going to fill the space After that invasion was over as I understand there was a lot of bureaucratic in fight in Washington The State Department had a plan for the post invasion period or the post invasion transformation of Iraq But it was very much sidelined by the Pentagon and of course there were different groups within the Pentagon who were competing with one another and At the same time there were different agendas Which be either overlapped or contradicted one another and as a result The United States could not really come up with a viable post invasion plan in order to achieve What the United States had originally promised that is to? create a stable secure prosperous and Democratic Iraq and that they means to be the case to the present day so with that that power vacuum as you call it That had was created and of course this has echoes of what else has happened around the region previously and continues to now But with that power vacuum, how did that actually give rise to is itself and I think perhaps too We should talk a little bit a little bit about who is I is well I Mean the origins of the IS really goes back to the penetration of Iraq by Al Qaeda Under Saddam-Sahddin's dictatorship Al Qaeda had no niche in Iraq but of course some elements within the Bush administration were really looking for a length between Saddam-Sahddin regime and the 9-11 events but They couldn't really find that links at the end just as they didn't find the other reason for justification of the invasion that was that Iraq had weapons of mass destruction and But it was of the invasion that Al Qaeda found the necessary space to establish itself in Iraq and Then expand its operations in Iraq and one of the man who was really leading the Al Qaeda operations in Iraq was Zarkawi and At that time the current leader of the Islamic State Al Baghdadi was associated with Zarkawi So in a way It was essentially Al Qaeda which spawned What eventually became known as the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria or what is now called? Daesh at Daesh is basically the acronym for the Arabic name of the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria or ISIS It really from my point of view doesn't matter Whether you call it Daesh, of course the Islamic State leadership doesn't like it because they would like to See the world acknowledging its legitimacy as a sovereign political and territorial state and therefore now they shun the acronym Daesh But it really doesn't matter whether it's called Daesh or whether it's called ISIS or ISIL the important Point is how we are going to really deal with the reality behind this sort of name. Okay, but before we get on to that so the What spawned it effectively was almost like It became a franchise of Al Qaeda and yet there has been a severing of Connection with Al Qaeda only last year. Yes, I think then the Islamic Order ISIL began to homogenize from 2010 onwards and it really took off from 2012 Particularly when they succeeded this particular group succeeded taking over Raqqa in northern Syria Of course they established their niche first in northern Syria and it was from there That they started expanding their both political and territorial influence and of course Syria has Virtually by then had disintegrated and remains so to the to the to the present day and Now also what we really have but in large is a disintegrated Iraq The biggest challenge now facing not only the Iraqis in the Syrians and for that matter the regional Players and the international community more importantly the United States and the Sun lies how to really put these two states back together to the pre-crisis and both countries and that is going to be a challenge Which is going to be extremely difficult to meet successfully How big is IS do we know do we know what their numbers are well We were initially told that the IS had 5,000 fighters and then later on we were told to buy a western intelligence services There was to have about 10,000 fighters The latest figures that we've been given is 21,000, sorry 31,000 But at the same time we have been told that something like 21,000 Foreign fighters have gone and joined 21,000 have gone and joined the IS and of course Officially, we've been told that something like 90 Australian are Working for them or fighting for them, but there are also some unofficial figures which put it to something like 400 So we really don't know the exact numbers But what we do know that now IS has control over some eight million people and our large sorts of territories in Iraq and Syria Large swathes of territory and an enormous number of people for such as what it effectively is a small troop if we are Talking about 31,000 people How how are they managing to do this and and where is the support coming from where is the money coming from where's the firepower coming from Well, I think when they succeeded a last June and defeating the Iraqi army They managed to capture a lot of modern arms that the United States had supplied to the Iraqi armed forces in fact That we were told by Washington at one point that they had built and trained and Equipped the best army in the region, but obviously that did not turn out to be the case So a lot of their arms. There are a lot of the arms that they were using their IS using Really have been the ones they've been captured And also they succeeded in taking over the Iraq's second largest city, Mosul and Eradied the central bank or Mosul They got a lot of money from there, but let's not forget that prior to that They were also Funded to some extent from a number of Arab countries If not from the Arab directly from the Arab governments, but also at least Arab private citizens We should be reminded that There is billions of dollars in the hands of private citizens in Saudi Arabia and Kuwait in United Arab Emirates and They these citizens they do pay saddaka or religious arms two and a half percent on their wealth and Often they really send they send it to what they call religious causes or deprived groups Muslim groups in the past a lot of money was channeled into the into the coffers of The Afghan Mujahideen who were fighting the Soviet occupation of Afghanistan in 1980s and then subsequently a Lot of money really went to to the Taliban and I recall from the Former a chief of intelligence of Saudi Arabia Prince Turkey al-Faisal who personally told told me that Saudi Arabia on its own Provided some 24 billion dollars Support to the Mujahideen and the Taliban alone and that's a lot of money and also I think initially a Qatar was providing Support financial support, but the financial support were not specifically for the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria it was for this Syrian opposition But because the Syrian opposition was so divided and because they were already a number and was dominated by a number of extremist groups And the moderates really could not Get their act together. So part of the funding which was channeled to them also went to these extremist groups So in whose interest is it for our eyes to continue to grow in strength? Well at the moment Publicly speaking, it's in the interest of nobody It is an extremist Sunni group and therefore it is very anti-share and anti other sex in Iraq as well and in Syria Because that's said publicly but but privately, but it's a bit of a different story Yeah, well, I think it's different story because yeah, Iran is totally opposed to us and So is publicly Saudi Arabia and it's a Partners in the Gulf Cooperation Council. That's Kuwait United Arab Emirates Bahrain and so on But let's not forget that one of the reasons that I Is was able to establish a strong niche in Iraq was because it found sympathy or support Among the Sunni population of Iraq who form about 20% of the population of the country and they had been terribly marginalized and ostracized under the shared dominated government of al-Maliki So the grievances that these that is a rocky Sunni had had brought in not only a Force like IS to gain support or the Islamic State of Iraq in Syria to gain support, but also Saudi Arabia Which claims the championship or the leadership of the Sunni Muslim world was sympathetic very sympathetic to the Sunni population of Iraq and in some ways The Saudis Were involved in a proxy conflict with the Iranians because of course We know that also a majority of the population of Iraq is made up of Shears and you do have a strong sectarian links with the Islamic Republic of Iran But my my my point at the moment is and you know the point that I wanted to make is that While Saudi Arabia and some of its partners and the Gulf Cooperation Council are publicly opposed to IS at the same time Did you remain concerned about the plight of the Sunni segments of the Iraqi population and if IS is a force which can help them and Or defend their rights and one for more another one should not rule out the possibility of Saudi Arabia and some of its allies Seeing the rolling back of IS But not its destruction altogether as a possibly anti-Iranian force which Therefore would suggest that IS in one form or another is going to be with us for a long time. I Think it's going to be there For as long as the current conditions exist It is the the conditions of what I call Authoritarianism across the region the reasons on which they draw in order to justify or Expand the circle of their recruitment and justify their extremist actions range not only from the prevalence of authoritarian regimes across the region But also to Israeli occupation of Jerusalem the Palestinian lands United States unqualified support of the state of Israel and of course at the United States support of various authoritarian regimes and the region and of course since the Arab the reversal of the so-called Arab Spring and the support that the United States has provided to the developments in Egypt and also to what is now sort of become very much well known as the counter-revolution That is taking place across the Arab world. Let me ask you this see I From what you say, I'm understanding or hearing that you don't think that the US United States Really has a place in in fighting IS Well present Obama has Gone into this air campaign against IS very reluctantly I mean we do recall that, you know, he came under a lot of pressure Reluctantly, but now doing it with great vigor and Doing good with great vigor, but they're still extremely reluctant to send ground troops Just simply because he doesn't want to get involved in another ground war Which could result in the return of too many body bags to the United States Absolutely, but when he says things publicly such as that they will be eliminated and denigrated I mean, I'm sure a military Experts would have to assume that somewhere along the line that's going to involve ground troops. I think this is what the military experts have said Eventually this war would have to be really one on the grounds and it's not going to be one from the air And I think probably President Obama is very much aware of that But at the same time there is this thinking in Washington and that over a period of time That's why President Obama said that this is going to be a war or a conflict which is not going to be Finished in weeks or months, but possibly years Do you think it is it is correct that the the US take the lead on this the US and its allies my personal position from the very beginning has been that while the origins of the conflicts really go back to the 2003 invasion and perhaps some people might even go further back and You know under the personalised state that Saddam Hussein had created And That what has really emerged in since last year, it's a more of a regional problem I Felt it was imperative and indeed very reasonable For the region that this problem be left to the regional actors to deal with it I just simply cannot imagine that for example Iran With sit back and allow Baghdad to fall to Islamic State It would be too much for Iran in terms of its overall strategic interest in the region to let Baghdad fall or For that matter I just cannot imagine the Saudi Arabia in his partners and the Gulf Cooperation Council And their Arab supporters across the region would sit back and allow the IS Forces to cross the borders of Jordan Kuwait and so on my I I Feel very strongly that this was a very unique opportunity that the United States and its allies should have used in order to Bring about a degree of regional cooperation In fact the IS could have been used as an incentive to bring about regional cooperation Because ultimately if IS is an enemy a common enemy to all the regional states Then they had to act in some ways collectively in order to defend themselves against this menace Which is really emerged the difficulty there are a number of difficulties I can say but but one being that Assuming that all the players in the region would act But as you've just said a moment ago for some of them there is an interest in an IS of some nature or form still existing the other is that You know many of these regional players would admit themselves That they rely on the US time and time again for this kind of intervention And in fact there's this lovely quote from Joe Klein the the journalist who writes at the time time magazine who said just recently that when he was he was traveling through the Middle East An Arab diplomat said to him When in trouble we always call 911 in other words we call our now American friends now Isn't that what we're seeing? Here they're that reliance and also your theory then that if the region was left to its own devices It would have taken action also assumes that the region the various actors would have worked together And there's no evidence that that would occur. Well, I mean there is No question that once the United States In the salaries took the lead then there was less pressure on the regional actors to act They could have sort of sit back I think the participation of the Arabs Arab countries in this international coalition is more of a symbolic nature Rather than importance in terms of substance. Yes They have for Saudis have carried out some air bombardments and the Jordanian Air Force have carried out some but on the whole They have not really Come into this campaign in a very big way in order to reduce their Dependence or the dependence of the campaign on the United States in its western allies Which are doing the heavy lifting at the moment and that may continue to be at the case for some time to come explain to us Something about the the religious extremism that has been at the heart of this Particularly in the propaganda wall that seems to have attracted foreign fighters, etc How how can this sort of extremism be contained or dealt with? Well, I think it's reached the point from my perspective that you and Secretary-General call should call a Regional summit of the order a summit of the regional heads of states Because even if Saudi Arabia and some of its allies are Very concerned about the plight of the Sunnis in Iraq Ultimately, they don't want the Islamic State to become an Incredibly viable and challenging force. You don't want Because that would really challenge the legitimacy of many of the regimes in the area and I think this regional summit Should also be participated and supported very strongly by the five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council There has to be a regional consensus and The regional consensus is not going to really emerge until such time that the regional heads of states get together with the support of the five permanent of the Security Council members to Come up with a Resolution of some of the very fundamental issues, but that would not be just I mean in terms of the military operations They will have to really come up with a very viable and Comprehensive political strategy because there are so many Root causes of extremism which cannot be resolved by military actions and Therefore our comprehensive Political strategy has to be designed in order to deal with those root causes of Extremism which defy military solutions Just the extremism if we come down to I guess grassroots level when you've got Young people around the world including from Australia You know sitting in their bedrooms on Facebook and on online and getting a rather You know excited about the prospect of joining this fight and then we're here We we've got you know someone in the Northern Territory a Labor Party figure going off to fight with the the Kurdish Peshmerga It seems unstoppable and as you said before with so many foreign Thousands of foreign fighters it would seem unstoppable again the attraction seems to be something that is is almost impossible to put down and that's that that further that passion and Religious attraction that many of us just don't understand. Well, this is the first time in that Islamic group has succeeded in establishing a Very strong territorial base and declaring an Islamic state or Khilafat Which is basically trying to present itself as successor to earlier Khilafat or Islamic states in the Muslim history The Khilafat was abolished by the founder of modern Turkish state Mustafa Ataturk in 1924, but There are groups across the Muslim world That you are still very nostalgic about the Khilafat and they have been advocating the unity of Muslims under a single leadership and Groups like Al Qaeda is the Tahrir and a number of others Have been remained very much devoted to this ideal but I think they're all sort of dreaming Because What has really happened since the disintegration of the Ottoman Empire and The colonization of many parts of the Middle East Of the World War one and then the age of decolonization That the concept of nation state has taken a stronger roots in the Middle East then the concept of a Borderless Oma or Islamic community or the concept of Khilafat Today if you ask a Saudi who are you he would first tell you I'm a Saudi then he will tell you I'm an Arab and Third he will tell you that whether he's a Sunni Arab or a Shia Arab and then Fourth he might tell you that which tribe he may come from or which province he may come from and the same applies Right across across across the board, but it would seem and forgive my terrible pronunciation But it would seem that the emotional pull of a caliphate Has has been very successful in that it has pulled people from around the world to this idea and it There are some very simplistic messages that sound good. They tweet well all that kind of stuff about Creating an Islamic state that seems to be at core Wanting to be at war with with with the West well, there are quite a number of Young hot headed if I could put that that way Muslims in the West Who are attracted to this new quote unquote Islamic political and territorial state which is coming to existence and Of course, many of them may be marginalized in the Western societies and I think what has happened recently in France this issue of marginalization has been very much acknowledged by the French leadership and Of course, that's also an issue also in the United States and many other European countries and Australia and possibly Japan in a number of other countries as Closie associated with the Or states which are within the Western Alliance But there is no a very dangerous dimension is taking shape and that is that the jihadis in the Middle East being countered by a Western counter jihadis and We have recently heard the example of Matthew Gardner Who has gone to Iraq in order to have a fight for Pashmerga and The Kurdish Militia and of course the Kurdish militia is not an internationally recognized force is not an Internationally legitimate force because it's not under the control of the Baghdad government at all it has been operating for years Independent of the Baghdad government and that's why the Kurds have succeeded in establishing an Extensively autonomous state in the north which is just another challenge even if the IS is not there And I think the Kurdish issue would be another challenge not only to the Iraqi government But also to the region, but that's another issue. But of course, there's no also various groups which have been set up in the West and One of them is this said the lines of rogue over which basically means in Turkish West that you're recruiting Westerners who are non-Muslim Westerners to go and fight for Pashmerga or for the Kurds in Iraq and this carries the risk of a global Struggle between jihadis and counter jihadis Taking taking place in it's not at the level of Western governments acting against the IS. It's at the level of People in the West Acting against the people in the Middle East or for that matter in the dark there's no doubt IS has been has been incredibly successful in its propaganda Without a doubt and and its media as well. One of the difficult things I think in in this War is certainly from a media perspective. It's impossible to get close It's impossible to actually penetrate and so so much of what we hear is is imbued with great fear and In fact even pitching the idea of IS being all about pure evil and a death cult You know, it makes it psychologically seem like that IS is invincible So in that sense they've been very very powerful and very clever in the way that they've used the that the propaganda war won The propaganda war look, I just want to move on because we are running out of time, but let's get to our core question Is IS vanquishable? Can it be defeated? I think that we are look at it at this point IS is containable But whether it can be defeated That will depend very much on the extent That the regional countries and International community Succeed in changing the conditions across the region and how does that happen? Well, I think the reforms will have to come from within the region. I Don't think that the regimes in the region Can afford to treat their citizens With the degree of restrictions political and social restrictions That they've done so far They really have to open up their their systems for wider participation on the part of their public and support of policy Implementation and policy formulation processes To me the systems and most of the countries is still remain very much close. So you're talking about a spread of democracy I'm talking about probably not Something which would be the replica of Western democracy, but I'm talking about a degree of political pluralism Which we need to be in conformity with the building of civil society and in conformity With why there with the need for why the political participation as the foundation for liberty and Then as a foundation eventual for some form of democracy, which is going to comfortably rest with that some of the traditions which really Define the characters of the people and the way of their the lives of the people and that part of the world