 The following is a presentation of TFNN. The morning markets kickoff with your host, Tommy O'Brien. Good morning everybody. I'm Tommy O'Brien, coming to you live from TFNN Thursday morning just after 9 a.m. Eastern time. We got about 30 minutes to go until the start of trading and we got markets in positive territory to kick things off. You're looking at an S&P, positive by 16 points. But boy, we were higher last night. You were approaching 4,200 in the S&P. You make a high at about 3 in the morning Eastern time, about 30 points above right now. You had the S&Ps up a full percentage point overnight. Right now you're positive by 4, 10th percent. We got a lot of earnings to go through along with some economic numbers this morning. You got the Nasdaq 100, you're up 74 points, but you were as high as 13,080. You give back about half of the gains overnight. Nasdaq 100 was up more than 1 percent as well. We're sitting right now up 6, 10th percent. The Dow, a little bit of a laggard. Dow right now just under 33,000, barely in the positive. The Russell, positive by 9 points. How about crude? $95 and 14 pennies, man, crude. Chopping around that $95 price point since the close of action on yesterday. Gold catching a little bit of a bid this week. We make a low Monday of 1740. It's been higher prices since then. You get the gold contract trading at 1773 and we jump to the all-important notes and bonds, flat action so far in the note and bond market. We get the 10-year right now, flat to the tick at 1708. That's going to correlate to a yield, though, of 3.11 percent. You talk about a run, man, into some Fed speak tomorrow. Chairman Powell, we start to get some headlines today out of Jackson Hole, though. We'll see how the markets move on that. The Fed chairman himself speaking tomorrow, 10 a.m. Eastern time, I believe, is the time he'll be speaking tomorrow morning in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. All right, let's jump around to some of the news we got this morning. We'll kick it off with some fundamental news. It's almost like there's news for either side of the opinion on this one, folks, and every day we get it. The headline out there this morning, Key U.S. Growth Measures Diverge Complicating Recession Debate. I would say so. So you look at it. GDP contracting, 0.6 percent better than the prior estimate. Gross domestic income rising at 1.4 percent pace. Spending revised up. So you look at these two numbers, okay? Gross domestic product is the total value of all goods and services produced in the economy. That's a big one. That's about all that matters, folks, your GDP over your economy, right? Decreased at 0.6 percent, okay? Annualized rating in April to June period. That reflects an upward revision to the consumer spending and compares to the previous reported 0.9 percent, okay? So you get the previous reporting. You get a restatement of that. We're now at a decrease of 0.6 percent versus a previously reported 0.9 percent contraction, okay? And then you have, as Bloomberg puts it, I'd say rightfully so, the lesser known official measure of economic growth known as gross domestic income. That climbed at 1.4 percent after increasing 1.8 percent in the first three months of the year, okay? So gross domestic income up 1.8 percent in the first quarter, up 1.4 percent in the second quarter. That measures activity by calculating all income generated from producing those goods and services like compensation and company profits. And you say, hold on a second, if we're making more goods, shouldn't what people be making income-wise from those goods be somewhat tied to that? Yes, you're correct, it should. Theoretically, GDP and GDI should be roughly equal, but in reality, they tend to differ, especially in early estimates, but the current gap, particularly large. Guess what that does? That means you got something for everybody, man. They suggest there's an abrupt slowdown in the economic momentum in the first half of the year. Under the surface, there's more play, though, including volatile categories, right? Imports, inventories, consumer spending has decelerated back-to-back negative quarters. That's the common rule for a recession. We've heard that one before. GDI, however, gross domestic income points to more gradual cooling. It paints a picture of an economy supported by a robust labor market and resilient consumer spending, though one that's starting to feel a pinch of the worst inflation in a generation. So interesting, you get both of those numbers out. Choose your data to choose your opinion, folks, on how that goes. Now, we got unemployment benefits out this morning as well, decreasing by 2,000 to 243,000. In my opinion, if this thing chops around between 225 and 250,000, it's almost a non-news event. Median estimate was looking for 252, so stronger numbers than what the market was looking for, continuing claims, which were our one week delayed versus when you look at jobless claims, okay? So continuing claims is for the weekend at August 13th, falling to 1.42 million. The decline in jobless claims points to a still robust labor demand as companies trying to attract and retain employees amid lingering worker shortages. Not usually the sentiments that you read during a recession, right? Companies trying to attract and retain employees amid lingering worker shortages, not even close to what you hear. Even so, some employers in the tech sector have been laying off staff for freezing hiring. That's gonna continue to climb in the coming months as the Fed potentially raises interest rates to curb demand and tame inflation on an adjusted basis. Initial claims declined to about 184,000 last week. You got New Jersey, Indiana and California having the largest declines. And what about Massachusetts? What's going on in good old hometown, home state, Massachusetts, posting an outsized increase for jobless claims? So we get those numbers this morning and the market takes in stride, but we got a lot of earnings to go over and some tough numbers to say the least. Why not we'll kick it off with Peloton, man, Peloton. They are losing Boku bucks to put it lightly, folks. They got all the acceleration yesterday that they're gonna be selling their products on Amazon and what happens? They give it all back on their numbers this morning. Now let me cherry pick some of the numbers here and you don't have to cherry pick hard, man, to find some harsh numbers for Amazon in terms of what they were putting out here. Yeah, so Peloton has an average hardware cost, okay? I'm gonna try and find this tweet. Let me see if I can pull it up so you guys can see it. Of $1,436 and actually loses $163 on each new subscriber added, all right? Now, this is just some of the breakdown. They're everywhere on Twitter. This one did catch my eye though, folks, okay? These bikes are shipping from 130 bucks on Amazon and it cost in them $1,436. Brutal quarter, get that outsourcing going ASAP. Random quote, tweet from somebody that I'm not familiar with, okay? Obviously, maybe title, tide, fall, capital, not so familiar with Trevor Scott. I don't think he's anybody in particular. But nonetheless, I believe this is true, okay? They are spending so much money, folks, on every single bike they're making, okay? Now their business plan is to stop doing that. So eventually they're gonna probably turn that corner and they're gonna get their margins down low enough that they're gonna outsource the production of those bikes. They're probably gonna get the margins back into a reasonable level to where they're probably gonna be able to actually even be able to afford to cut Amazon in on some of those profits is what you're seeing. But nonetheless, some tough numbers this morning and I thought I had it pulled up, but maybe not, let's just jump into it. Big loss and a decline on revenue and the number is pretty startling, folks, okay? Peloton's net loss, 1.24 billion or $3.68 per share. Folks, the stock's only trading at 11 or 12 bucks, okay? 1.24 billion in three months they just lost. That was 313 million they lost a year earlier. They, I think it was a 400 million restructuring charge they're dealing with. Some of the losses stem from Peloton's effort to avoid an inventory glut, cut fix costs and addressed other supply chain issues. They embarked on 800 million restructuring plan. The end of the fourth quarter with inventory of 1.1 billion compared to 937 million a year earlier, revenue falling 28% to 678 from 936. That came in short of even what the market was looking for, 718. Yeah, tough numbers all around, man. For Peloton, we could spend a whole show just talking about it. 338 million in subscription revenue, up 36%, okay? That's 56.4% of the total company sales. So that's gonna be a big path for them going forward. 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There's no catch or added costs when you join our community of traders. Sign up today and become a part of this educational community of traders. Just visit the front page of tfnn.com. Folks, we've got S&P Futures right now on the positive by 18 points, trading at 41.60. You got NASDAQ 100, just above 13,000 at 13,014. Let's jump over to our man, Kevin Hanks. Every trading day, folks. 12 noon Eastern time right here on Tiger TV. Fast Market with your host, Kevin Hanks. Tom White, the team at TD Ameritrade Network. They do an outstanding program, folks. Walk you through the day's market action. They walk you through three trades, three hypothetical trade setups, all of them using options on the Thinkorswim platform and all of them in defined risk. As we come into potentially a very volatile end of the week right now. Kevin Hanks, good morning. Good morning, Tommy. The Jackson Hole Symposium starting out today, we should get a steady flow of headlines and comments coming from policymakers, economists, financial market participants, academics, all those, they'll all be commenting on the current state of the economy. And then it leads to Jerome Powell speaking Friday morning from there. That with the PCE data that we're gonna get from personal income and outlays on Friday should make for a pretty big end of the week, Tommy. It's pretty cool, we drift upwards, Kevin. I thought we might get a little bit of risk into this market in terms of sitting at a pretty lofty level of 4160 right now in the S&Ps considering where that recent run hire started of 3600 and change. We come into potentially some volatility, man, at the market holding up pretty well. Even in the face of some of those earnings companies that are out this morning trading a little bit lower. Want to get your quick take on Peloton? It's a fan favorite as in volatility everywhere on that stock, man. Losing more than a billion dollars and a quarter. What was your take on the Peloton numbers as they kind of give back all that exuberance yesterday on the Amazon deal that they put together? I think if you're looking at a stock like Peloton, you're really gonna look to the future, not the present. They're going through some pretty rough times, but this new CEO is really making changes to the company. Closing the boutique stores, moving over to Amazon, getting more with e-commerce in terms of this company. I think long-term, the real question is what kind of a, how big will Peloton get? Is it just gonna be a boutique company like GoPro and things like that that go crazy when they come out and then settle into a nice level? It'll be interesting. This relationship with Amazon is an interesting one member, Amazon, 163 million people view Amazon. So they've lowered the prices of some of the bikes down to reasonable levels. So for Peloton, it's all about the subscription services that they can get people to apply for. So yeah, it's gonna be interesting, but Peloton's a longer story, Tommy. I think you ended it with a great point. As in we all know the health industry of items, whether it's, I was joking with friends, Kevin yesterday, talking about all they gotta do now is get Chuck Norris on the commercials, man, and they'll have the business plan fully intact. Maybe Christine Brinkley or whatever, you know, as in they've run forever, but what they have, which none of those companies had, are the recurring revenue subscriptions, man. And they get some big numbers there and we all know it's a turnaround story. And thankfully, if you are an investor in Peloton, that story has already begun with them trying to sub out the production of their bikes, not doing it themselves, because boy, those numbers this quarter, man, when they're producing bikes themselves, way too expensive at what they're doing right now. We move from there, Kevin. We have a NVIDIA moving today, Snowflake with some bang out numbers, man. They're gonna open almost 20% to the upside. What are you guys talking about on Fast Market at 12 today? Three good names that we'll be looking at today. Workday, the HR company, the online HR company, then Ulta Beauty, like fully old do presentation on Ulta. And then we'll look at a firm, the Buy Now, Pay Later company made popular because of Peloton, Tommy. So we'll look at three really good names all with earnings out today. Man, that a firm chart, right? You talk about some volatility from 176 when Buy Now, Pay Later looked like was gonna take over the globe less than a year ago, down to $13 early this year, trading at 30 bucks right now. And Ulta, holding up pretty well this year, one of the better stocks almost right where you kicked off the year at 412 right now. Bottom of COVID folks, 124, you came into 2020 at a price level of about 267, so strong performance in Ulta. So as we approach, Kevin, as you mentioned, we're gonna get plenty of headlines today. What's your basic expectation as we sit, you know, coming into the opening bell, we're up a bit, you're up a little bit more? Do you think we could see volatility today in general? And this is a big opinion, nobody really knows, or is it kinda just gonna be we're wading through the analysis we do get for the chairman himself? Or is today something that we might actually see some volatility? I think the anticipation up to Jerome Powell's comments tomorrow are pretty clear, right? I think the message from the Fed so far has been pretty hawkish about fighting inflation, but, Tommy, remember the anticipation going into the Fed minutes about the hawkish tone that they expected and it didn't show up. It was more balanced and more middle of the road, a more two-way discussion about inflation than just pure hawkish. So, you know, the best scenario for the market, I think if Jerome Powell puts away the hammer and takes out the feather and massages this market back to where it was. So it'll be interesting to see his comments. I'm sure he'll talk tough on inflation, but how does he feel about interest rate changes going forward, Tommy? And then some, you know, I don't have the exact verbiage in my head, but some of what he did talk about there or they talked about in the Fed minutes was saying that the effects and the impacts of some of those hikes that they've already given maybe not felt yet. Maybe the market's somewhat receptive to that, that the Fed governors kind of receptive to the idea that, you know, it takes time, folks, for these hikes to have an impact and maybe they're going to allow that impact to play out before they keep hiking every single meeting. But guess what? We're gonna find out a little bit more within about 24 hours from right now tomorrow morning and we'll get some headlines today. Well, Kevin, we appreciate the time you take with us every morning, as always, man. Today should be an interesting one and we'll be watching at 12 o'clock today, man. Have a great day and have a great weekend, Tommy. You have a great weekend too. I always say to you on Thursday, Kevin, folks, we talk to Kevin every Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday, right at 9.15 in the morning. Put it on your calendar. So when I say Thursday, it seems, Kevin, there's so much news. I'm gonna talk to you on Tuesday. We're gonna know a lot more about this market. When I speak to you on Tuesday, man, I can't wait. Have a great day, Tommy. Thanks. You too, folks, tune in every day. It should be a good one, I'm sure. It's Fed Day, it's Fed Speak, Jackson Hole, Wyoming, along with some great companies they'll be talking about with earnings as well. And yeah, Alta, man, look at Alta holding up pretty well. You wanna be in a strong stock during a recession? I guess you wanna be selling makeup to say the least. Workday, not so much the case though. Look at that pullback, man. Almost back to the COVID, those for workday from 307 down to about 140. You've bounced a bit with the market up to 160. That's a big one. And a firm, yeah, AFRM. Yeah, that's a tough one, man. Up to 176. Now, I think part of the acceleration this company had, right, was doing deals with Amazon even. I mean, maybe it was the deal that they did in September they were doing that. Not so much the case, folks. Down to 30 bucks. Even this company right now, you jump over to the Analyze tab. You're talking about a $9 billion company at $30. What does that mean? And what, five, six times that? So we're talking about $45, $50 billion company when you were running up to $160. I mean, thankfully they're not gonna take over the world, folks. Because by now, pay later, for many of the items that they're talking about, yes, they're allowing you to do that and they're telling you they're not gonna charge you fees. But folks, if you have to, you know, I mean, when this thing was rising to the depths, there were images being posted on Twitter about you could order Domino's with a firm. Are you telling me we're gonna start getting to where we're doing buy now, pay later for pizza? But that was literally what they were talking about because they'll service anything, man, as small a price item as you want. Not sure that is good for society as that stock takes off. But right now it's sitting at about 30 bucks. That'll be an interesting conversation on Fast Market at 12. Check it out, folks. We'll be right back for the... Time of glooming inflation. We are purchasing powers eroded. There's no better place to protect your harder and money-thinning gold. Vista Gold's flagship asset is the Monk Todd Gold Project in the Northern Territory of Australia. This is Australia's largest undeveloped gold project. We are talking a world-class gold project in a tier one mining district. This is a large-scale, low-cost project with significant existing infrastructure in a politically safe and friendly mining jurisdiction. Vista Gold just completed the Monk Todd Feasibility Study, which resulted in a 7 million ounce gold reserve in a 16-year mine life. All of this combined with the approvals of all major operational as well as environmental permits. This distinguishes Monk Todd as an attractive, devious party, ready-development stage gold project. 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From the moment the market opens until the closing bell sounds, Tiger TV has eight different shows with expert hosts to help you make the right moves with your money. Watch online at TFNN.com or on TFNN's YouTube channel and become the investor you were born to be, TFNN, educating investors. This segment is brought to you by Think or Swim. For more information, just click the Think or Swim banner on the front page of TFNN.com. Welcome back folks, we've got markets open, you got an S&P positive, but a little bit of a drop on the open there as we reach levels, basically session lows right now, S&P up 12 points. You see the acceleration we had at about two in the morning, you accelerate higher, we give it all back then plus some, we're just positive by 13 points right now on the S&Ps. You get the NASDAQ 100, positive by 73, Dow actually goes red on the open right now. You jump over to Europe, we get the DAX basically flat, the FTSE up about one-tenth percent, you get the KAKAROL basically down two-tenths percent over in Asia, positive prices in a big way. The Nikkei up about six-tenths Shanghai up a full percent. How about the Hang Seng up 3.6%? Hong Kong's Hang Seng rises after resuming trading, Asia markets rise ahead of Jackson Hole, but we'll see if they hold as this market gives back some of those gains. I mean, you take a look at the S&P folks, we're about 40 points off of the highs we had last night. Let's see what that high was. Well, we'll call it 30 points. 30, 35 points off of the highs we got on that acceleration higher at about 2 a.m. Eastern time. We jumped to commodities, crude, sitting pretty comfortably above $95 this morning and we had the gold contract up about 10 bucks as well. Jumping back to Peloton, see how they opened this morning. Kevin made some great points, man, talking about, you know, they got some work to do. The story for them might be they're recurring revenue and subscriptions going forward. So we'll talk a little bit about that. They're down 14.5%, man. You're losing over a billion dollars in a 90-day period. You better watch out. They can't take forever to get this turnaround going. That's to say the least, but let's get into some of the numbers they talk about when you talk about subscription revenue, okay? Losses, they're definitely mounting, man. As I said, 1.24 billion in 90 days. Talk about mismanagement, man. But this new CEO, he's been in there since February. All right, the company has an $800 million restructuring plan. Now, revenue is down, okay? But connected fitness gross margin got hammered, okay? Negative 98.1. They're dealing with some logistics problems, okay? But here it is. They booked 383 million in subscription revenue. This is something that like NordicTrack never did, right? If you had all of these exercise equipment makers that were all over TV in the 90s or 2000s or whatever it is, right? They always had to sell, excuse me, sell the equipment. I mean, if you ever had a back end on that equipment of subscription revenue, who knows where NordicTrack might be right now if they had subscription revenue to go with selling the actual equipment, okay? So 383 million in subscription revenue, up 36% from a year. Now, I don't own Peloton folks. I'm not telling you to buy it right now, but this company's valued at $4 billion. It looks like the CEO is willing to just spend what they have to right now in a short-term period to get things changed, an $800 million restructuring plan. We're seeing a lot of that cost play out right now over the last three months and probably in this quarter we're in right now, okay? McCarthy's previously been at Netflix and Spotify made it clear that he's more interested in pursuing growth on the subscription side of Peloton's business. This is something I can believe in, okay? Rather than putting such an emphasis on hardware, he should be, okay? There's nothing special about making exercise equipment for hardware folks, nothing at all. It's all been done, it's pretty cyclical. You come and then you go and then there's a next one that comes beside you, okay? He believes that Peloton's digital app will be core to the company's future. Peloton burned through 412 million in cash in the fourth quarter. Average negative cash flow was 650 million in each of the prior two quarters, so stemming that a bit, it ended June with only 1.25 billion in cash reserves and 500 million in credit facilities. So they gotta get their house in order, man, or else they're gonna have to go to the public for more money. This is some of the risks that you face if you're gonna get in right now, all right? But if you're looking to get into Peloton, say maybe you scale in, right? Maybe if you're looking for a longer term position, you scale in with maybe a 25% position or whatever you take fully, something like that, okay? It ended the last quarter with 2.97 million connected fitness subscriptions about flat with the prior quarter levels, okay? Not good, not growing there, all right? 2.97 million connected fitness subscriptions. Up 27% from a year ago, okay? Connective fitness subscribers are people who own a Peloton product such as its original bike and also pay a monthly fee for access to live and on-demand workout classes. Its total member count, though, declined by about 143,000 people from the prior quarter to 6.9 million. The company hopes to one day amass 100 million members. Now, when I got a little confused in the airfoam, maybe anybody within the Tigers then, you could help me out, is the difference here between how they categorize connected fitness subscriptions, okay, versus their member count. Obviously the member count, maybe you're not paying for that in some capacity because it's dipping, but you're at 6.9 million versus 2.9 million connected fitness subscriptions. Nonetheless, if you just focus on this number right here, they get 3 million people paying, okay? They have that number providing, what do we just say, 383 million in subscription revenue, all right? Usually you're gonna be able to get this number with some decent margins, man, okay? That's a big part of it. As in you're telling subscription revenue on a product that's basically an internet class streamed live. Folks, there's a million YouTube live streams. If you want exercise classes that you can pay for free. The thing that perplexed me most when Peloton went public, folks, now we'll go all the way back to the beginning of their story, okay? I used to see their ads on Bloomberg all the time as somebody that was really into biking, just bicycle riding outside. I was always like, that's really interesting, you know? It's amazing that they can have this type of advertising on a network like Bloomberg that I know is expensive, okay? And that they're just running that type of average. What is this company? I look it up, of course. I look it up before they go public. Ah, it's a huge private equity company, okay? Backed by all this private equity, they're gonna go public, okay. So what happens? They go public in September of 2019, the stock opened somewhere around $27, runs up to $37, okay? Now at that time, you're talking about a company because right now we're at about $4 billion, okay? They've got 337 million shares outstanding. But at that time, you're talking about a company that's pushing $10, $12 billion. And I always said, folks, I can't understand why people are paying $1500 for an exercise bike and then you gotta pay like 45 or 50 bucks a month to use it with their classes. That seems absurd, okay? That's more than most gym memberships. Maybe it's not more than most, okay? But it's basically the cost of a gym membership. I think I belong to LA Fitness. I might have canceled it recently. I gotta look in just because I wasn't using it enough. But LA Fitness, some of those have pools. They have saunas, they have entire locker rooms, and I was paying $25 a month. So you're telling me I'm gonna buy an exercise bike and pay $50 a month to use that exercise bike that I just paid $1500 for? Well, one of the happening folks, yeah, that was basically the gist. Things got out of whack during COVID and it all came crashing down when the whole world realized the same thing. Hey, when I was trapped at home, I could justify that type of cost. And if I wanted a Peloton bike, I bought it sometime during COVID. Because if I waited till now, I'm not spending 1500 bucks on it right now to spend that type of recurring revenue. But nonetheless, you know what the company figured out? They probably should be selling the bikes at break-even and signing people up for recurring. And I bet that's probably where they're going to and I bet that's why they wanna get on Amazon folks because they don't even care about making money for their bikes because they shouldn't. Because if you can get a long-term subscriber paying a recurring fee at a margin that's gonna be pretty high once they overcome their fixed costs, maybe that's a recipe for success in the future. Nonetheless, not this morning. Peloton gives it back off 14.5% this morning. Just keep it in mind. There is a bull case for Peloton out there. They might have a period of time going forward another six, 12, 18 months where they gotta get it under control. Stay tuned, folks. We got markets in positive territory. I'll be right back in three minutes. You might think that if you want to be successful at trading in the stock market, you're going to need a crystal ball. 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We got the S&P sitting right where we opened right now. Positive by nine, NASDAQ 100 in the green. You get the Dow slipping to negative territory a bit. Below 32,900, we jumped to crude. Gives back some of those gains under 95 bucks. We jump over to gold. Positive by about $5 on the session, but given up some of those gains, man, we were almost at 1780 this morning. Gold gives up about $10 in the last hour right now. It's 1767, and we jump to notes and bonds. You're seeing a little bit of lower price and higher yield coming into FedSpeak as we approach 3.12%, the yield on the tenure. All right, let's jump around to some of the other stocks that have earnings going on this morning. We jumped to Snowflake. You talk about some big numbers, man. Up 16.7%, they were at 192 on the open. They give back some of it, still quite an open for Snowflake. NVIDIA, they were lower, so much for that. They opened basically and pushed a flat. NVIDIA, excuse me, on their numbers. You're flat at about 172 for NVIDIA shares. We jump over to some of the other companies that have their numbers. As we scroll down the line, where are we at? Here we go. So Dollar Tree and Dollar General. Oh, both out with their numbers. Jumping over to those two charts. Dollar Tree gives back 12%. Dollar General gives back 2.3% as they're out with their numbers. What else do we have out this morning? A bunch of companies we gotta jump through. Abercrombie and Fitch, you talk about trade and lower, man, A and F, down 9%. We take a look at this thing, man. Yeah, you talk about some problems. Look at this run you had, man. From the depths of COVID at seven bucks, we're basically back to where COVID started after spending the better part of last year, accelerating to a high of almost $50 for Abercrombie and Fitch. So much for that, you're down 8% this morning on their weak numbers. Yeah, and sales force I wanted to get to. Cut its full year guidance. Economic uncertainty slows the pace of customer deals. Better than expected sales and profit for the most recent quarter with the market saying, oh, slowing the pace of deals going forward in the next quarter. Economic uncertainty is the catchphrase there. Sales force down 7.9% on their numbers. Pretty remarkable that you give back everything you had during COVID, man. Down to 115, up to 311, sales force back to 165. This is a strong company. Cloud is the future, but you're dealing with some multiples here. And revising that, investor wants to hear going forward. How about this story out from Boeing? Airplane seems like it'd be a bullish story for Boeing when their jets, how about $300,000 a month? Aircraft lessers are reaping the benefits of airplane shortages in past 2019 levels. Leasing firm execs said many of their customers are extending leases with new planes, hard to find the rent on a 737 max rising more than 20% between April of 2020 and this July to a solid $316,000 a month. That's quite a price tag, but hey, you're getting a 737 max, you're getting it for the whole month. You do it per day, that's only 10 grand a day, man, for a whole 737 max. But then you got to pay for everything else that comes with it, man. The competing Airbus A320 Neo, $324,000 in a month, up version of the A321 EO, 375 a month. Yeah, look at these rates, man. All right, so what do we got? We got the black here is the A321 EO, all right, that's not right back up to where you were, but you look at the other ones in terms of the 737 max, eight is in yellow here. You go from 310 to 316, aircrafts in demand. Even what's interesting about this article that caught me the most, right, is you hear airlines decreasing the routes that they're providing, right? So you have aircraft decreasing the number of routes and what's gonna happen there is that that's gonna allow them having worker shortages, et cetera, to maybe be servicing those planes they have while allowing them to charge higher costs, right? We've seen some of the airlines come out and say they're actually flying in less routes but making a lot more money. Why? Because demand is so high. Well, if that was the case, there should be plenty of airplanes laying around outside of the airlines, not the case, folks, okay? Not the case at all. The higher costs come, of course, as inflation's up there. So you're talking about 300,000, man, in a big way. You have one gentleman here who's a chairman of an LA-based air lease and company's lease extension rate nearing never before seen 90%. It usually runs 65 to 70. A lot of lease extensions on planes that a year ago were projected that would have to re-market. That means the company doesn't have to worry about transition costs at all. They don't have to market anything, man. Everybody just says, give me that plane back. Planes are through the roof. I want a plane. There you go. Yeah, look it. So passenger traffic rising in 76% in June from a year earlier, but still down about 29% before the pandemic, right? Down, but guess what? Probably a little bit of divergence there when you talk about leasing planes, maybe the well-off doing the most well-off, right? In terms of real estate prices, stock market prices versus where they were all two years ago. If you were leasing a plane in the last year or two, you're probably in a better spot right now than were a year or two ago considering the price of assets and where they are. And if planes are hard to come by, why not, man? Scoop up and play it for a year at least. We jump over to Boeing shares this morning. And they're up about 1.3%. So this one's an interesting one with Boeing, man. If you're looking for some action on Boeing, you're back within this channel. You do want to break out of this channel to the upside eventually. This is pushing a year and a half, folks. You break out of that channel to the downside. We get back in it just recently and at the end of last month, maybe we come down and touch the bottom portion of that at some point. We were just trading at 157 that earlier this week. Yes, it sure is, 157 on Monday. And just like that, Boeing's up to 166, catching a little bit of a bid this morning with the market. Let's jump over to some of the airlines. Yeah, we get the airlines straight and higher as well. Delta's up about 1.5% right now. United up about 1.5%. American, similar, about 2%. We jumped domestically. JetBlue up 1.3. Southwest right now up about 1.6. Let's see how the cruise ships are doing. Carnival up about 4%. We take a look at this thing. And yeah, you know, I, here, what's this? I wanna see something crazy folks. This downtrend channel that it's been in for the last couple of years, almost an extension of its highs of 2018. You take the COVID acceleration out of there and this thing has basically been in a downtrend from $72 sitting at 10 bucks right now. That's a monthly, okay? We just put this thing back on a five year daily and we just zoom in on where this recent trend started accelerating. And yeah, you know, maybe this is your point. You just treat this thing for a bounce to the upside, man, carnival. You know, you're talking about a stock that could trade as high as 16, 17 bucks if you just trade to the upside of this channel line. And again, folks, it's an art, not a science. Where's the top portion of this channel line, right? Could you make the case that maybe it's a little bit lower? Maybe a little bit of linear regression, matching those up? Maybe that's where it is. Nonetheless, you've got quite a large channel. You could trade to the upside. The thing I'll say is they got so much debt right now, folks, the thing that you're doing is you're taking a risk. Okay, because they have so much debt that unless things really start turning back on in all cylinders, if they face any type of interruption that they're not foreseeing right now, some great articles have been written to say, listen, if there's ever any type of COVID flair, and I don't see that coming, okay? But you never know, folks, as we all found out two and a half years ago. But even more probably, more probable would just be an economic turn down that maybe retirees are a little bit more worried about their nest egg. Maybe they're not cruising like the level that they thought they were. You could see this company go BK. So be careful if you're getting into that equity. But maybe this is the area. As you break back within that channel line, Carnival's up 3.8% today. We jump over to Norwegian up about 3.4%. Different story there. Probably got a downtrend in similar category on this trend since about the high of June of 2021 as well. But the market's holding up relatively well so far. We'll talk a little bit of FedSpeak when we get back here. As Kansas City's Feds George says it has to get rates higher to slow down demand. Speaking on Bloomberg TV this morning, already the headlines starting to come out. Stay tuned, folks. We'll be right back. TFNN has just launched their new trading room, the Tiger's Den, hosted at Discord. TFNN has been educating traders for more than 20 years with live programming hosted by a variety of professional traders during market hours. And now they are expanding their reach with the Tiger's Den, available to all Tigers and Tigris' for just $1 for the year. There's no cash or added costs when you join our community of traders. 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Maybe it was something or maybe it was nothing or maybe it's just people buying right now, but we've got all the markets back in the green with the S&Ps up 21, Nasdaq 100, Europe 80, you get the Dow up 40, Russell right now up 16. Crude sitting right at 95 bucks this morning. We've got gold up $6 and we jump to notes and bonds. Pretty tame action so far to kick things off with the tenure sitting at about 3.1%. So we'll kick it off with some of the headlines, one of the headlines at least that we get from Esther George, Kansas City Fed. She's talking about has to get rates higher to slow down demand and may have to take them above poor percent for a time. They said, that's what she says. It's very important that we're clear on our communication about the destination we are headed. This is from Jackson Hole this morning. We have to get interest rates higher to slow down demand and bring inflation back to our target. Seems pretty reasonable. That's what everybody's saying, okay? Asked how high the Fed should raise rates. There was more room to go is the quote and push back against bets in financial markets. The central bank will begin cutting rates next year. Folks, if you see the market start to reprice the probability of cuts coming next year and I don't see that happening at least not yet. We'll see what Chairman Powell has to say tomorrow. That would be a game changer. I think we will have to hold. It could be over 4%. I don't think that's out of the question. You won't know that, I think, until you begin to watch the data signs. Very true in that we don't know what's gonna happen, folks, until it plays out. That's why some of the optimism may be a little bit misplaced with the market trading near 4200 when we got a last CPI print at 8.5. Is it theoretical that what the Fed is doing right now tames the inflation that we're seeing? Of course it is. Does the data back that up yet? Not even close. So we'll see where we go from there. We got a Fed meeting that begins September 20th, 21st, ahead of that, right? We're gonna come back from the long weekend Labor Day and what's gonna happen, folks? We're gonna be two weeks out from a Fed meeting. We're gonna start getting jobs numbers. We're gonna start getting CPI numbers and it's all gonna matter, but before we do that, we get some Fed speak today. It should be an interesting one, folks. Stay tuned. We got our man Basil Chapman. He is coming up next, folks. Then we got our man Steve Rhodes at 11, fast marketed 12, Larry at one, Dave White at two, and our man Larry Pescimento filling in again today for my dad live at three o'clock. Don't miss it, folks. Live, folks.