 Let's get over to our mammoth to Tim Lloyd folks as we ever do every Tuesday and Thursday and don't forget folks You can get Tim's newsletter by going over to odd or d hyphen oracle calm That's odd hyphen oracle calm Tim Lloyd. What's going on brother? All right, actually we're gonna Review another well same chart. It's the okay summation index We kind of been following it for the last couple of weeks. Yes And so chart number one is that summation index is just kind of a Just quick review. Okay this summation index needs to get below minus 700 yep, and then then from there needs to rally to plus 1,000 and you like to have have that happen Within two months or two around two months. Yes, that's the exact day But anyhow, but back on October 27th. We had 813 We had minus 813 on the summation dex and this is yesterday's close Today's actually going to be a little bit higher, but yesterday's close and so anyhow two months add to October 27th comes out December 27th And so yesterday was two months and the summation dex closed yesterday at 1033 oh man, you gotta love this Wow, yeah, so it admit the parameters and If you look at the chart it goes back to 2007 Looks like now listed all the times red lines are when the summation dex get below minus 700 The red lines are the times when the summation reached Plus 1,000. Yes and Malm predicted that, you know a major run to the market matter of fact it appeared at the Last was appeared last year 2022 we had a decent well we had a great run this year rep S&P's rep 24% at big dick that picked out the low of 2020 the COVID crash, you know and that thing. Yes went went way up. So now we got another Situation so that predicts 2024 Probably will be an up. You know a double digit up here. Yeah, and I'll blow people's minds 10% to 99% I know and you know folks if you've been following Tim and myself, you know what's amazing about this is that you know in this particular one we went right from the minus 813 and The thing is to me was so cool man. It's crazy that it hit Exactly at the two months. I mean when you've been explained to us We know that it doesn't have to be two months to the day, but it is pretty Cool that was two months to the day isn't it? It's like wow Yeah, it's too much today and actually you know the Macaulay Oscar will be up again today above zero That predicts the market or the summation actually index will be higher tomorrow. Okay, which is not a big deal But anyway, we reached their parameters, you know, can it go higher? Yeah, but we are reached parameters So 2024 looks like pretty good year because this is not a short-term indicator Yes, they're not saying every month's gonna be an up month But it does say next year or the next 12 months most likely will be up right a pretty high probability of time So let's flip to chart 2. Okay, and where's it? Where's it? Where we're gonna go? I know there's a couple different things here Actually, we'll do the bottom window the bottom window the SPX VIX ratio. Yeah, and Back in October from October to I don't know Jen or October to December 2021 the S&P's were making higher highs and this ratio is making a lower highs That's a as a major divergence Suggesting that mark's gonna have a a pullback but it pulled back really good into the October low and Right now the S&P's are hitting higher highs and this ratio is also hitting higher highs but I also want to point out if you draw a line from the October high back in 2021 and you draw that line Connecting to the Looks like July of 2022 you can see that line went down on the S&P's a little bit But if you look at the ratio that made a higher high I see I Can see that I can see that bigger time frame. That's bullish So that's what I'm trying to point out. Yes, so even though the SP's right now probably touching the highs of 2021 and the ratio has already broke to new higher highs, right? So on a bigger time frame that's really bullish, but even on a short term time frame here That's labeled in light blue The S&P's were you know making higher highs along with that ratio. So the whole thing's all bullies far as The VIX is concerned And what I'm thinking this pattern that is forming here is the head and shoulder's bottom And we just we're at we broke the neckline right now this month Above that 4600. So I'm thinking this whole thing is a head and shoulder's bottom Which which it projects that head and shoulder bottom projects Minimum major target around 5700. Yeah, just stay right just stay right there Tim We get a quick break and Tim and I are gonna be right back folks You have the dial up 99 nazics up for S&P's are up one Tim and I come right back folks Welcome back folks Tim or Tom O'Brien. We do appreciate you go rallying in problem with us and You know Tim is showing us this head and shoulders That he's looking at and as Tim has told us many times, you know, you have to bust that with a Sign of strength and you know Tim I just did these numbers man I guess there's no doubt in December alone. We went up 240 S&P points man pretty cool Yeah, yeah, it's I'm thinking so as it's a logical break and you know time will tell but you know The VIX would show up bearish here and it's not doing that on the bigger time frames anyhow So I'm thinking this is a legitimate break and And maybe we rally up come back to the neckline at some point then we'll have to wait and see from there Okay, normally we break the neckline that becomes support. Yes The worst scenario I guess in the next 12 months is 4600 So We'll see but we can we can take a look at the short term now Okay trend my opinion according to summation decks importing to this Head and shoulders bottom, you know the trends up next year, but on a short term basis I got some minor diverges is going on so if you want to win go to chart 3 awesome. I'm there. Yep All right, chart 3 the middle window is the TLT to VVIX ratio. Yes, so TLT is the bonds and the VVIX is the VIX of the VIX the only reason why I'm using that It responds faster than the VIX Okay, so actually the VVIX goes up before the VIX goes up So anyhow, it puts a little octane into the indicator a little bit So you get a little bit faster responses, but normally as I kind of listed there in pink The time for the SP's which is the bottom window that's the SPY in the bottom window is going up And that ratio is making as the SP's making higher highs that ratio is making lower highs Yeah, that went down quite a bit, huh? I see that. Yeah. Yeah, so right now, you know It's a you know the SP's and going up here, you know good You know, I got along here a couple of weeks ago or something like that I kind of sold it because I think this is one ratio that's that's showing a very sign, right? I think real huge, but yeah, you sold sold at the close yesterday. So let me ask you this I know that in July, I mean that was the big deal in July. This thing came down pretty quick, huh? Didn't it interesting man? Okay. Yeah. Yeah, it came back, you know So many I sold yes, but I'm not really hugely bearish here, right? But I'm thinking this is probably a trade and we'll go for your next couple of charts I think that may what develop will have to wait and see but yeah That's given a divergence that the TLT of VX ratio is giving divergence and the next one This is on chart four. Okay This is the Just the VIX and it's kind of the same thing if you look back in The high of July, you know, the mark was going up and the VIX was making higher lows And actually had a bullish scenario Back in Was that I can't reach a December early December It started going up and actually the VIX made a lower lows But if you notice over the last several days here matter of fact even look today if you got a Chart, you know the SP's right now or Yeah, they're still up just a minor bit, but the VIX is also up today, right? I just just on today, but if you look at the the far right Well, the current Pink area, I guess it was just a little bit brighter pink than the other areas. Do you notice the VIX is making higher? Yeah, higher lows as the SP is making the higher highs and That's that's also a kind of divergence. So we've got two different things going on in here Yeah because like even four days ago the VIX really popped and then it came back and as you said I mean because four days ago what happened folks is that you had two separate days That you know, we popped up to that 1449 and now you're back to 1253, but you're still up 10 ticks now. I get what you're saying. Okay, cool. Okay Yep. Yeah, so so I have so anyhow, so I'm thinking at least you got some very scientists on top You know, you know at bombs you get a blowout, you know and everybody runs to the the door So bottoms you get closer to a bottom being can usually at a top, you know If you hit a top up at the exact day, you know, my opinion is lucky right anyhow He got some signs here. So I'm thinking now you move to chart five. Okay, and Why I circled two big volume days. Yes on the on the volume chart there a lot of times Those big volume days are tested at some point and you got to basically the same vicinity So I'm thinking this is a rising wedge going on here and You may see a pop down to test those big volume days and that's all yeah I'm not looking for a big decline Because we got you know, if you on the monthly chart, you know, your neck lines at 4,600 Neckline so that's the worst-case scenario. I think it's 4,600 on the SP's and But I think you may pull back there maybe in January first part of January Right and if you look at the spy right now folks where Tim is pointing out we're at 477 oh seven Well, the number he's looking at with that big volume day is this for it goes from 470 to 467 actually Yeah, okay. Yeah for yeah, so yeah, rum. Yeah the 468 whatever somewhere in the vicinity And that's just you know, the old Teckel analysis rising pattern. You have new highs volumes dropping off, right? And you see a reaction, you know, and this probably would help to bump up the trend to you know You get these panic Down days because normally when these rising waves do it take effect, you know, you're talking Extremely fast declines. Yes, you know, right and so that may pop the trend up Maybe we get lucky and get a two or three day on the trend Which will be bullish and that would line up for another trade to the upside You'll have to wait and see but if you look at the bottom window there on this chart, too You can actually really see how the VIX is going here S&P's are making higher highs. You can see the the VIX is making higher Lowes, you know, that's very yes, you know, you see even though today's up a little bit not a lot You can see the VIX is actually higher than yesterday's close Yeah, and you know, it's interesting to Tim on your five day arms You're gonna have that three point six nine fall off today Yeah, right. So we need you know, we need some kind of energy to Going forward here. So you get these low declines we get that, you know, five day 10 trade right up where they need to be right, so nothing real bearish, but You know, that's I think it's just a trade, you know, it's things are kind of extended and blinds light So I got a couple of divergences. So am I gonna play short side? Probably not No, because I know I get that you're threading the needle man. I get it. It's pretty cool You start threading the needle and you know, I've done that too many times Yeah left behind but I do think some sort of a pullback that may happen here I probably within a next week, which it totally makes sense man This run is big extraordinary. There's no doubt and you know, we have folks, okay? You know, we just got a call prior to you coming on Tim and you know this Gentleman was talking about you know tax selling and you know because he's made some money in the gold market And he has a couple gold stocks that are no good and you know, what does happen folks? I mean, you know the the Aztecs up 55% this year So I'm sure there's you know, there's folks that you know, I'm gonna take some of that money So, you know the bottom line is that are they taking it this year or is it a January 3rd phenomenon? Which we have seen many times. Okay, so that right there Tim and I are coming right back folks You have the Dow industry was up 105 and as except 11 S&P's are up 3 Don't forget you can get Tim's newsletter by going to odd or the hyphen oracle.com come right back Welcome back folks at Tim or you tell them around we do appreciate you go round and problem with us out here We have the Dow up 104 and as except 11 S&P's are up to 50. That's 2.5 zero And we are kicking into the new year right now. We're going over some Chots with our manager Tim or okay cool Tim. I'm ready All right, so chart 5 and now this like I said, it's probably a could be a rising wedge and nothing real sniffing to downside but probably go back to I think was at December 20th low and And and and that's it and from there, you know, the bigger trends up So little chop probably next week. So Chart number five Yeah, yeah, I just want to just want one thing that you had said Tim I just want to go over this for the listeners once again So it's important if you caught what Tim said folks, okay when you have a rising wedge Right, and he's looking for the the bar the December with December what I'm sorry Tim December the December 20th. I think it was okay. Cool December 20th low. That's that big black I got it Yeah, because what does happen on a rising wedge folks as Tim said when he was going through this is that that When you get a pullback is normally fast and furious man So you might think the end of the world was coming in and there's no such thing and anyway, I just wanted to bring That up again because when you mentioned it You know, we've traded a few of those over our years Tim and it's pretty cool Yeah So normally they get down with what we're gonna hope for is that trend? Yes on a daily basis jumps up that kind of puts fuel back into the five and ten day Panic, you know trend exactly. So, you know, if you that's if that ten-day trend gets down to like play on point 9.8 a lot of times those come near highs, right? So you always want to feed that trend to hopefully stay up around 1.2 or higher And if it does and you got fuel to push that market higher because the fuel the panic is a fuel to push more You know, you know, Joe Granville. He said, you know, the market climbs a wall of worry Oh, yeah, and and and that was back in the age when he said that he's Doubting by remembers them anymore, but we do though. I mean Karen I had him on a lot man. He was awesome man. I died did that if you heard him folks, okay They always say that yeah, you get the generals and then the what they the generals would leave first the generals leave first of the troops the generals Yeah, the generals take off from the bottom and yeah, but troops or whatever right a little later So but yeah, you had a lot of good points, you know when he said the wall of worry He didn't really understand. I don't think you know the panic aspect of it That's for sure. No, yeah And so I took that I always thought about that and I thinking well, how are you gonna find panic in the market? So that's how I got to the trend. Yes, because if you if you break down the trend, you know Panic forms when all the stocks are down and all the volume are in the downstocks. Well, that's panic Well, the trend helps you find what that looks like and that's using what happens when the trend gets up around two You know two and a half three or two or Yeah, that's so I put a put a definition to that wall of worry thing. It's a beautiful thing. I like it Yeah, yeah, it works pretty good. So it works great. Listen, man You've been showing these shots that that Well, especially that just the last panic man the last one we got that three-point something That was a one-day wonder man. That was it, right? I mean, it's not like that was it. Yeah, right Actually, that was on the December 20th. That's that big candle down there Okay, perfect. I got it. Okay, cool. I got it. Yep. So and also, there's another indicator, too There's a there's a two-day trend if you get a two-day trend that adds up to four So you have one day at 2.5 another day 1.5. Yep You buy that you buy that trend you buy that close because they're not gonna let you in the next day Okay, folks, and remember this programs archived. So all these little tidbits that Tim's giving us, okay? Write them down, man. Write them down the program don't write them down if you're driving right now when you listen on your radio But write them down. Yeah But you know that two-day trend we're getting Timmoid secrets It was exactly what was three point nine three, okay, you know, not exactly four but close enough Yeah, but but if you bought it on the close, you know, you had a what one two three four five-day rally here So right all right, but anyhow, that's that's just a short-term trade doesn't last forever But if you get a two-day trend to add that before buy it on the market or buy market on the close Nice because there's usually no test or anything. You're just gaps up and goes just keeps going We can flip to chart six now or we had more questions on Word six. Okay, cool All right. This is just momentum indicator measures the up volume and down volume the What I found worked the best is it up down volume to really get the trend in the market that's the bottom window on this chart and it's a 50-day average of Of G the components in GDX and up down volume percent. Yes And so when it's basically above zero the markets in an uptrend when it's below zero Markets in a downtrend and it's pretty much as simple as that So right and when I did this chart today, it was like plus four and change Which is kind of like the midpoint of where it usually goes even though the markets off today a couple of percent. Okay If it stays above zero normally, that's a good sign them the rally in general Probably continue. So it's just a momentum indicator on up down volume and that's that's all it is. Okay, I Think there's some other stuff on the chart, but what's important is momentum. So let's flip to Chart seven okay and This is a the charts that you wanted this is this takes a bigger chunk out of the market and The bottom window is the cumulative Advanced decline and the next window up is the cumulative up-down volume on the weekly time frame so Yeah, all the all the blue time frames is when that those indicators closed above the mid-bolinger band and the red indicators or the red lines are Cases when the cumulative up-down volume bands client indicators close below their mid-bolinger band And it got a little whippy here back in October November went for a buy went through a cell Yeah, we've been on a buy for about oh mid-November and both indicators are still Well above the mid-bolinger band. This is today's reading. Okay, this is a weekly time frame So it takes out it takes out all the You know The whipsaws I guess some of the noise. Yeah, you is look at the bigger trend And so this chart helps to do that. So this chart can give signals that could last a month or two Sometimes even tree. Okay, and sometimes you get you get whippy, but in general it's meant to Trigger a multi-month rally Most of times it does that Sometimes it doesn't but as long as above both those indicators are above mid-bolinger band You're usually got Energy to the upside that can carry the market higher So whatever's going on right now on the bigger time frames is probably still up We're not seeing a really major diverses Both of the up-down blowing advanced client indicators are above the mid-bolinger band So on an intermediate term basis, this still looks bullish so far And so how long is it remains bullish and tell the clothes below the mid-bolinger band? And so when that I don't know, but it's a momentum indicator, but this is a weekly Which is sweet. I think we're running out of time again. No, that's all right We do Tim and I we got one more shot. We're gonna do it as soon as we come back folks We have the Dow industrials up 78 Nasdaq's up eight S&P's a flat and don't forget folks You can get Tim's newsletter by going over to odd or d hyphen oracle calm Tim and I come right back folks Welcome back folks that Tim or Tom are brown. We do appreciate your growling and prowling with us as we kick in into 2024 folks pretty amazing Okay, Tim Want to go to that last shot? Well, okay Repeat this chart Chart number seven. This is a quick repeat, but anyhow, that's the weekly chart of cumulative advanced decline Okay, and the both of them are right now above the mid-bolinger band, which is bullish So that projects, you know, maybe you got a month maybe three months of rally You know, you're not for sure but anyhow the weekly charts For the momentum up down volume advanced client indicators are bullish So I flip to chart number eight. Okay, and okay now this is the same chart They're both but it's on the monthly timeframe and this is a chart that you want to see Closed above the mid-bolinger band. I get I see It's the yearly most of these signals last a year They can last actually four years because last time this chart gave a signal was back in January Looks like about January 2021 three years ago. So this is the chart that we need above that mid-bolinger band That's the bottom right. Yeah, right both of those indicators need to give up above that mid-bolinger band and And normally they're not whippy. You know once they get above them normally Okay, start that trend So what this projects if they both do and the weekly says you got a good chance of the market can rally over You know the next month maybe to yes if that can happen Which is logical on the whippy timeframe on the up down volume advanced client indicators Most likely that will push the monthly above the mid-bolinger band, right? If that's the case then that would project at least 2024 is gonna be an up here and could be even 2025 because right now. I mean we're right underneath it in both of them, right? I can see that. Yeah, so yeah the second one up Mid-chart there's right smack at it. Yes any minor strength will probably push that above it But the bottom window was the up-down volume here. You're not a long ways from it You know a decent rally over the next month might make push it and that could open the door for you know You're maybe two years a rally. I love it. Well, listen man. We appreciate all the great education in 2023 We look for more in 2024. Happy New Year, Tim Thank you. Stay ready. I'll do the update folks right back