 Ddedig i ddweud, dweud, mae gennym am ymddangos y gallwn, ac yn oed bod i chi'n ffordd yma fel yma'n coding yma, yma'n cy monksion yn rhan y ffordd yma? Y dyfodol cerddoe'r cerddoedd yma, sy'n daredu 낮el a'r ffodd a'r ymddangos yn ei wneud o'r taru sy'n iawn. Mynd i chi'n dod yn mynd i'w tŷfgws iawn o'r iawn ar y gwasanaeth i'r ddweud newid sydd wedi gweld y ddweud cyhoedd y SNF yma, gan y dweud, mae'n dda i. Por fy f scenery is at the sustainable development goals. I'm going to keep my time talking to a limited time as possible and we have half an hour here to cover quite a lot of ground. So I'm going to invite my colleagues to say a few opening remarks each and then we'll have plenty of time for questions from the audience. We've also had some questions coming online from social media this morning. My first guest is John MacArthur, Senior Fellow United Nations Foundation. Felly, yn ôl'r rôl, yw 17 ESTGs yw'r credwch yn cystafol gyda'r golygu ffordd? Mae'r gwbl ffordd yma yma, mae'r ysgol yma o'r ysgol agendig yng nghymru. Yn ymlaen, mae'r golygu'r ffordd yn siŵn, mae'r golygu'r ffordd yn llwyddoedd, a'r golygu'r ffordd yn siŵn, mae'r golygu'r ffordd yn siŵn iddynt. Yn ymlaen, mae'n roi ddweud yn cael byddwch, mae'r bobl yn sefydlu ac yn eu proles. Yr gweithio yw'r gwaith yn ysgolwyddiant yn y golygu'r gwaith yn ysgolwyddiant o'r pethau sy'n gweld y gweld, ym 10 o rhan o'r bobl yn ysgolwyddiant, o'r ffwrdd yw 1999. Mae'n gweld ar y dyma, rydyn ni'n bywyd ym 14 o'r gweld, dyma'r gweithio ar gyfer y gyfer cyfrifiadau. Mae'n mynd i'n meddwl ydym yn ei ddechrau'r bobl yn ysgolwyddiant a chyfnodd ar gyfer cyfnodd ar gyfer... Yn ymweld, nid ydych chi'n gweithio gyda'r fudio, ac mae'r cymdeithas am y system ymweld. Yn 2015 mae'n oedd yn ôl eu cyfnodd ar gyfer gweithio gyda'r ysgrifes. A mae'n amser i'r cyfnodd ar gyfer yng Nghymru. Ac mae'r cyfnodd ydw i'r cyfrifau. Mae'r cyfnodd ymlaen i gael credu am y cyfrifau ar gyfer y gweithio. A mae'r gweithio'r parwyr yn ddiweddu'r cyfnodd ymweld yma, mae'n cael hwn, mae'n sgôl cyflwyno, mae'n cael five o'ch cyflwyno a'r arddannaf, mae'n cael ysgoryn, i'w rhai allu a'r hyn arall ddewydiaeth gwiaeth yma, ond wrth dychel i'w hanlŵr bydwyd wedi'u hefyd nifer o'r un oed cymdeithas modd a'u hyacjaeth llwyddiol. Felly rwy'n wedi dechau. Rwy'n rhaid y cwysig yng Nghymru sy'n chi'n twfod wych chi'n twfod yn ei fyddwyr ym yn y warbydd yma sy'n hyn yn fwynt yn y ffordd ffarnol. But the beauty is that millions of people have been involved to come up with them as they are written, and that's what we get to work with for a generation? – Doug, just saying that very briefly. Are we starting these goals from a position of strength having concluded with a mixed scorecard, the MGGs, that were kicked off 15 years ago? You've got to go issue by issue to answer that question. I think one of the big things we have to realize is that nothing is monolithic in this world. So, the global health revolution Yn y gallwn amser yma yma yma yw'r gweithio'r gweld yma siwadion. Yn y gallwn y maen nhw'n gweithio, yn cael 15 miliwn gweld ymlaen, y gallwn yn cymryd â'r troi'r trwygyfrychol, ymlaen nhw'n gweithio. Ond rwy'n dechrau'n wahanol cael edrych yn y ddechrau. Rwy'n dweud yma yma'r ddechrau'r ddechrau, ond rwy'n dweud yma'n dweud yn y ddweud, ond rwy'n ardal yn ddweud yma'r ddechrau, dyn knewydd ang escaping of Ughhaff. And these new areas I would put like clean energy and oceans, again climate which is issue number one for the next several weeks and several years. We don't even have the institutions set up yet to tackle the problem let alone the ways often even to measure what we are trying to see happen. So this is mixed set of stories where there, gyda'r llwyffodau yn ymgyrch, a mae gennym ni'n ddweud y llwyffodau yn ymgyrch. Ddweud. David Victor, mae'r profesor o'r Cwmdeithasol, o San Diego. Mae'n gweithio'r gweithio, mae'n gweithio'r gweithio'r gweithio, o'r Llyfrgell Llock, o'r cyd-dweithio'r cyd-dweithio ar y cyfnodol, o'r negosiadau, a'r cyd-dweithio yn ymgyrchio'r cyd-dweithio ar y cyd-dweithio ar y cyfnodol, o'r syniad lle ymgyrchau o cwmdeithasol, o'r ymdweithio'r gyd-dweithio ar y cyfnodol? Mae'n bod sgwr yw'r cyd-dweithio sy'n ei fwn yn ôl o'r gyffredinol sy'n ei dewis o'r lawr, ac nid cyflawn o'r lle fyddiwyridol yma, ond yn ymgyrch yng ngharffau sy'n ymgyrchau, os yw gyfliacol a'u gwirwdynol. mae'r proses ble i'r symud wedi lawer o'r cyd-doedd llai ac yn cael ddweud i Grydlawch, ac rwy'n effeithio eich rili, ond bod y gallwn adeiladau i'r cyfrifio'r Tyniol sydd wedi'u cyfrifio'r golygu, ac mae'n adeiladau i'r cyfrifio i'r bobl yn cael y bydいきます sy'n adeiladau i'r llayr o'r megarais sy'n cyfrifio a'r byd i'r unigydd. Mae oedd yn meddwl gyrfaen stairs yn cyfrifio'r golygu iawn i gael golygu i'r newydd, i fod yn cyfwung i edrych unrhyw mwy o'r 100 cyfwung iawn, mae mae'r cyfeirio'n hyrroddau ar gyfer cyfw corwyddiadau yn gweithio'r gwahod i'n radd nesaf cyfw roundau ar hyn.amel Caerdydd wedi'u gwneud ymgol yma i'r llu infantry. Felly mae'r cyffreithiau meddwl yn y proses dechylltio. Ond ydych chi'n clynyddu gan y proses, mae'n cael ein lleol yma mae hi'n gwych ei wneud yn gweld yr hyn yn ymddangos. Fe ydych chi'n fydd yn dda, is that the diplomatic community has become more skilled at learning how to make the inter-governmental bargaining process useful where it can be useful and so avoiding areas of gridlock. You'll see the same thing on display in Paris in the next few weeks where I think what we're going to see is for the first time in 18 years a major inter-governmental agreement on climate change so countries are going to come to one of these big negotiations and not leave with failure and that reflects skill, real improvement in skill in negotiating and knowing where the inter-governmental process can make contributions of where it can't. I understand this process. It's an amazing achievement to get where we are. What's the best place to kick off? How would you begin the process now of actually implementing and executing on the go? Well I think the indicators are going to be crucial. Some of them are pretty straightforward and basically building on things we already measure. Many of them are not so it's going to be very hard. And there's going to be a tension between treating problems holistically, putting them all together and talking about the world's general problems as a single bucket. There's going to be a tension between that and focusing in very practical ways on specific things. And I think when you look at history over the last three decades international environmental law started by focusing on very specific things. Wetlands degradation, trade and endangered species and actually made a tremendous amount of progress by being very specific. And we've swung in the last few decades towards these more holistic systems and frankly the holistic systems are often producing gridlock and that's the problem. I think it's going to be crucial that as we start to really measure the elements of these goals that then countries and organisations figure out practically what are we actually going to do to deliver on these goals and be very specific about that. Thank you. John Beard, director of the Department of Aging and Life Course at the World Health Organization. So specifically health is one goal but also you're involved in the GAC on aging as well. I should add so you'll probably have insight from there but let's focus on your core competency, the aging part of the portion of the population. How well it's served are they by these goals? Pretty well. First of all I'd have to agree with both John and David that I think this has been an incredibly inclusive process and it's almost a miracle that we've reached a global consensus so quickly. And also I think the fact that this global consensus does take this holistic perspective which is quite aspirational but then the question is how do you hone down into it being something that drives effective action. In terms of older people and the process of getting here I think it was a hard slog to get people to understand that older people actually are part of the global community and they need to be included in goals as a set. And it's particularly heartening that a lot of the goals are quite specific in their wording particularly the goal around health at all ages. And while that's not specific in terms of what it means and I think now the challenge does move to what are the indicators going to be in terms of how we move forward it does create the space for action to ensure that people of all ages can benefit from sustainable development and that we don't have the discriminatory approaches that have happened in the past. I think from a health perspective we have a beast that's very different from the Millennium Development Goals where there were very focused and very clear outcomes we were targeting. I think now we talk more about the idea of universal coverage and ensuring that everybody has access to the health services and the other public health initiatives that are necessary to maintain their health being able to identify what in that broad gamut we should be focusing on I think will be the next challenge. Of course the paper that the cancer put out recently on aging was talking about the economic opportunity and how well recognised is that in the business world for example. I think people are just starting to understand the contribution that older people make to society. Traditionally we've tended to stereotype them as a burden and looked at expenditure on older populations as being a cost. These days I think people are starting to realise it's much better considered as an investment and if you make that investment you start thinking about well what would be the return on that investment. And older people make incredible contributions so the return can be fostering those contributions whether it be supporting families informally, informal care and support or participation in the workforce or even as consumers and creative people who contribute to society in broader ways. So thinking about how we can make that investment I think is the next shift. I don't think that most people have finally got to that point but I think the door is opening and there's certainly a lot of focus. But unfortunately today it's mainly been oh my goodness we've got the tsunami of older people. How are we going to be able to avoid economic disaster. So I think there's a long way to go but I think people are starting to reframe the way they look at it. Jump back to you and back to the goals. What's going to be keeping you up at night? What are you going to be worrying about getting the implementation phase going? I think the first thing is just explaining them. In the past several weeks since these were agreed diplomatically and then formally by presidents and prime ministers I've found myself coming back to a few basic points to get the message of what they actually are. First there are a set of norms, there are a set of north stars, that's all they are. They're not an implementation mechanism, they're ultimately open source for the world to figure out how they write the story. And the UN has played an important role, a unique role that only it can play to convene this conversation but now this is about not governments and NGOs on their own, this is about science, this is about the business community, this is about what I would call the second half of society that has to be part of this conversation. But the other thing I would say is that this notion of the number of goals is very important because if I may just tell a quick vignette, when I first saw these goals get agreed as the 17 and the 169 targets, I called my mother that night back home in Canada and I said, wow mom, these goals that I've been talking about, she's retired, doesn't really know what I do with my days but very supportive. She said end of extreme poverty, all these ambitious targets, it's quite incredible. She said that's great, I said there's only one problem. So what's that? I said there's 17 of them, I don't know how to explain them. And she said 17, that's a great number to which I kind of stood back and said why is that? She said it sounds like they didn't fake it, the world's complicated. And she said if they'd come back with some letterman style top 10 I probably wouldn't have believed them. And it was very interesting because when I mentioned that story in a speech a few days later, everyone from the audience the next couple of days came back and said oh it's like your mom said the world's complicated. And I think this notion of these goals recognizing complexity is a new concept for the world because we've been trying to boil down things that are simple in order to communicate them. But the reality is most people know the world is complicated and I would even say if you have 17 goals most countries actually probably have at least 17 ministries. So are you saying that one goal per ministry is too many? These are the interesting types of questions and how does each constituency organize itself to rally the business, the science, the government, the civil society. And the deepest reality is that the people worried about non-communicable diseases are generally speaking not the same people who are worried about clean energy systems. Those are different communities. And so how does each community, especially the ones that aren't used to thinking about these big global challenges, how did they set their own scientific agenda, policy agenda, implementation agenda, financing agenda. I think that's the big question is how do these communities that aren't used to organizing around these goals see their story as one to be written within it? No, fourth industrial revolution, we talk a lot about technology and the confluence of a dizzying array of innovation and scientific endeavor all converging into a present sometime in the near future that we don't really understand as yet. But how can this be harnessed and what are the major risks, David, in looking at the achievement of these goals? Well, I think, I guess I'd say two things. First, I'm worried that the goals have been set very ambitiously and that we don't actually know which of them are achievable. I think one of the things that was very smart about the Millennium Development Goals is that although we didn't meet all of them, they were set in a way that they were stretch goals and they were connected. They were always anchored in what we thought was achievable whereas the current round of goals I think may be outside that realm. The second thing I'd say is in the area that I do a lot of work, which is climate change, the potential to address the problem through the industrial revolution, through technological change, that's where the action is. So in the last report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, one of the things we showed in that report was that you could reduce emissions growth a little bit through changes in behavior and better efficiency and things like that. But the only way you make big reductions, 50%, 80% reductions in emissions, that's what's necessary to stop the problem, is radical technological change. We need new kinds of electric power systems, new systems of transportation, and some of these new technologies might simply be new fuels that we drop into the existing system like biofuels, but most of them are really going to be fundamental and profound changes. And I think that's the really big challenge here is you're going to solve the climate problem and many other problems with technological change and policies that are supportive, but it's over many decades and how do you send a credible signal to firms and to governments that this time we're actually serious, that even though we've been talking about problems of climate and other problems for decades, this time we're really serious and we're going to start innovating and then deploying those technologies, that's the really, really difficult thing. That's what keeps me up at night. How optimistic are you that that message is going to get heard? Well, I think a lot of the particularly interesting tests here will be Paris. Sustainable development goals are so big and so ambitious that I don't think we're going to identify any single moment as the key test. Paris will be a very key test for climate because if diplomats go there, they adopt an agreement and more importantly, they adopt a process for filling in all the things they can't agree on on the road to Paris or the road through Paris as people are calling it now. If they do that, then that'll send a signal of credibility that has been missing for 18 years. Can I just add one point? Please do. One of the, I agree with so much of what David just said, but the flip side is I was very involved with the early days of the millennium goals and getting them off the ground. One of the things that I think is almost hard to remember is how people thought things were impossible back then. So the classic example was the AIDS pandemic and anti-retroviral treatment. I actually recently went back and looked at a lot of the memos, the internal documents from the UN. It had these comments like, well countries with high HIV AIDS prevalence will never be able to tackle child mortality so we should set their bar lower because the expectations were very low. Well, that would have included countries like Ethiopia and Malawi that have now actually achieved the Millennium Development Goal for Child Mortality. And so the question I ask myself is which are the things that we presume today are too hard to do but actually are doable and which are the things that the systems need to actually just be rewired or relaunched or launched fresh. And it's not to understate the scope of the challenge on something like the technology transformations for climate which are enormous. But I think one of the questions we really need to ask ourselves is it was official statements, official policy in early 2001 that it was just too hard to try to deliver anti-retrovirals. So why bother? Now this is seen as an easy problem relatively speaking and the hard problem is non-communicable diseases and things. And so what's the cascade effect that might start a new set of conversations for these new goals with new issues, new agenda? I think that's for me the single biggest question. What are these triggers that might kickstart a whole new set of processes because societies learn in sequence more than in parallel a lot of the time? John, I agree and I have to say I really like your mother. I think the idea that she can grasp complexity and the idea that these are complex challenges. I think in the past we've been looking for very simple solutions but really if I look at my own field health it's relatively simple to put in place a program to tackle a specific condition. But to try and build the complex system that can respond to different conditions as they present and evolve and change is quite a different matter. And I take your message that that may appear challenging today but it's only by saying okay we're going to accept that this is a complex challenge. We need to have a complex response. Now let's think about how we do it and then maybe in 10 years time, 15 years time we'll be looking back and we'll say well gee you know it actually wasn't as hard as we thought it was going to be. But instead of starting with an overly simplistic approach at least recognising the complexity which is confronting us I think is a good starting point and then I think if we look at the fourth industrial revolution and the opportunities for technology to be able to start us to help build those complex solutions and also I think what is often forgotten is the ability it gives poorer countries to leapfrog to not necessarily go through all the same phases that other countries have had to go through to get to a certain point but to leapfrog with new and innovative complex solutions I think it's really exciting but it's only by setting ourselves that challenge that we'll be able to really focus energy and effort. So John on that note please do. I'm quite keen because we talked about environments I'm quite keen to see where John thinks innovation can play a role outside of that area but please David go ahead. I just want to add this industrial revolution that's underway. We focus a lot on the innovations that can solve problems and that's I think exactly right and we're going to talk some more about this. I think we should also remember that there are tremendous innovations underway in terms of measurement and data and so if we think one of the things that's going to be very hard about this complex problem is not only explaining the complexity of people, people get it, they understand the life's complex but then also developing indicators, what's really new now is the capacity to massively decentralise some of the monitoring massively decentralise the assessment and the process of figuring out which of these indicators we want to measure and which add up to different kinds of priorities and different settings and I think that's really different now. The sensors that are available and the capacity of people, even graduate students, undergraduates to go get all the data that used to be concentrated in the hands of census offices and governments that's really quite different. It's for example one of the reasons we discovered this problem with Volkswagen was the capacity of independent analysts to go off and look at the data and say something's wrong with the actual on-road performance of these vehicles. I would just say I think that I only agree with what David just said. I think there is the kind of classic technology or scientific breakthroughs that are needed in many areas and energy systems are the most glaring. We need to rewire everything in a sense. There are things that are more, they applied technologies like the cell phones of the world which in my personal experience are roughly like antiretrovirals in terms of how they changed the world in ways none of us, most of us, really anticipated. The fact that I can read email in pretty much any corner of the globe today still blows my mind because I remember even 2005 being in a lot of places in Africa, that was just not possible. So then there's these questions of things like even digital financial transfers, not necessarily Bitcoin but that could be a new world. But we could be providing basic income support to every human being on the planet through some small device within a very short amount of time. So the notion of ending extreme poverty might end up being actually a technicality. I did a quick calculation. That works out to roughly 0.1% of the rich world national income. This is your total income. This is a very cheap proposition but it's a technology design question. But the other big piece I think is that like in the data sphere, there are probably new forms of social organization that are going to be required for this. In some cases that's going to be corporate entities. In some cases that'll be new forms of governance, new forms of feedback loops for governance. So if you have some loosely speaking big data algorithm providing feedback to government and you have citizen input on that data or generation of that data, the notion of which decisions a minister takes could be entirely different and which decisions a company takes could be entirely different and how one regulates the decisions that are required by governments versus companies versus the independent analysts who are there to verify. So I think these are some of the, you know, in a sense most, again complex, but also most exciting questions because the beauty of a 7 billion going to 8 billion person world where it's very clear that no single entity is in charge is that the sources of innovation and actually inspiration are quite diffuse. So the ability for new solutions, either localized or globalized to come from anywhere I think is something, again, we haven't even got our heads around how big an opportunity that is. Well, time is marching on and it's always a great shame because we could be here for the entire afternoon. But let's just talk about the immediate 12 next 12 months and maybe think about what we'd like to see if we could see one thing achieved on the path to achieving this magical number of 17 sustainable development goals. John. On me first. John, my goodness. I mean, I think it comes down to the question of indicators and really being deciding what the focus is going to be because even though we're talking about complexity there has to be some focus within that. In the field of health that's a very challenging area. We have a lot of competing interests and a lot of specific outcomes we'd like to be encouraging. So trying to look, I think at an indicator which really gives us a good handle on whether we're building the systems that are appropriate to meet the needs that the current needs and the emerging needs which will come over the next 15 years. I think that would be the first thing I'd be looking for. John, just on that, and I should really have mentioned, for the benefit of our audience many of you are from this region. Are there any particular specific strategies for the Middle East, North Africa region or any nuances on your approach to ageing that we should be mindful of and perhaps our audience might find interesting? In terms of ageing rather than health I think the challenges are fairly universal but perhaps in this region there are real issues, gender issues for older women. I think one of the things we've been talking about which you touched on but we haven't really talked about is what are the risks associated with the fourth industrial revolution and one of the big risks is people who will be left behind and particularly there I'm thinking of people who have a level of illiteracy or computer illiteracy and so it's easy to talk about well the money might come through a mobile phone but people actually have to have the skills to be able to accept it and I think particularly in rural areas and in poorer areas of the world so here I'm thinking of North Africa and particularly for women there's a level of, a more limited level of literacy which might mean that the opportunities are harder to seize but more broadly I think it surprises some people that ageing is a global trend in this region for example by 2050 Iran will have a population structure that's almost the same as Japan has today and yet it's going to go through that transition in a much much more rapid, shorter time and so putting in place the things that are necessary to respond they have to actually start thinking now so I think for the region the pressure is on them to be really responding urgently. Thank you. David, next 12 months what's your priority? We discuss indicators. I think the indicator is going to be important and I suspect that at the end of 12 months there's still going to be some that we don't know how to measure. What I'm going to be looking for is whether a handful of governments and international organizations like Development Banks have come forward and said, here's how we're going to use the sustainable development goals. I'm encouraged by the fact that so many countries agree to this so quickly and I'm also worried about that because that could also be a sign that countries aren't intending to take it seriously and you're not going to get that through a UN resolution you're going to get that through real countries, development programs, banks, real organizations saying here are the ones we're going to put a special priority on here's how we're going to use them demonstrating that practicality. Do you think business is playing a role? Should it play a role? I think business is watching this business is always looking to see what's credible and what's not credible because there's an almost infinite supply of resolutions and ideas and a much smaller real supply of things that are going to get traction. I think business is looking to see which of these get traction. Jim McArthur, your closest thoughts on the year ahead. I'll guess two things. When I look at the countries and I look at countries like Nigeria and my home country Canada which Nigeria has been one of the leaders of implementing the MDGs at a policy level so how does it take on this next challenge? But it's a universal agenda so how does a country like Canada that is looking at a lot of these same issues in an advanced economy forum how does it think this through? But the second thing I'm going to look for globally if I could have one thing on my wish list for the first stage of this it's a proper global fund or global instrument for education where I would argue the central metric should be universal access for girls to secondary education. I think that is a tip of the spear issue I think the world is ready for it I think the politics of people understanding on Malala are very powerful but I think also this is a technical policy community that's taken a few years to get organized and now Gordon Brown is chairing a big global commission on financing education and I think this has the ingredients to be breakthrough for the skills revolution not complete but a breakthrough that can help deal with a lot of these issues of how do we make sure that we've really got every part of the world getting access to the types of skills it needs. Great, thank you very much thank you all for joining us and thank you to our audience watching online thank you for joining me here on the panel it's been a fascinating session I wish you a successful summit this session is now closed.