 Yn ymddangos. Fy hoi'n gweithio i'r rai gwerthu'r eifrif yn y 9 oeith. Rydw i'n gwneud y byddw'r Lluwysi. Prydwch i'r Cyfrifol Anthony Chung. I gael ei fod o'r newidol ar y ffordd, ond hefyd yn gwneud y peth o'r hynny ymlaen i gweithio'r ei gwirio'r ysgol i'r cwestiynau i'r ysgrifennu i'r frysgau i'r ymddangos. Rydw i'n ysgrifennu i'r cyfrifol sydd y S&P. ac mae'n dweud yn dweud y cyflwyddiol ac mae'n dweud bod ni'n dweud arall y llog, ond, mae'n dweud y llog yn ystod o'r cyflwyddiol yn y Cymru. Mae'n gweithio'r cyflwyddiol o'r cyflwyddiol yn y dyfodol. Mae'n gweithio'r statio'r cyflwyddiol. Felly, mae'n 400% ar y cwm 2009. A mae'n gweithio'r cyflwyddiol ar y cwm 2002 o'r cyflwyddiol. Maen nhw'n iawn i'r rhai bydd yn ffordd i'r gynnig o zeolwyr ac yn y maen nhw'n iawn i'w dweud ei gael weithio yma. Nid o fath o'n ceisio ffant eu gwbl oeddeu'r drwg. Ac y cyfais i'w bwyddo i chi i'w gwbl oedd yna'n gallu bydwyd arferfynwyr sy'n gweithio yw'r cyhoedd yr ydychydig, y type of activity that's worked well and the type of activity that would have definitely hurt a number of traders. Just looking at the type of whipsaw activity that we've had over the last few days, it really does set the scene for how flexible you need to keep your trading strategy, how open you need to keep your mindset and how amplifiers you would try to help people respond to events as they happen and take opportunity when they arise. You can imagine here, this is just looking at a Bloomberg source of the Japanese Yen movement on the Iran attack on the US Iraqi air bases, where obviously the US JPY sunk aggressively and you definitely would have had traders all over the world and a lot of algos responding to this, then being whipsawed on the next announcement that Iran is not seeking an all out war. It's not just on assets like that. Obviously we talk a lot here about gold for example and looking at the movement in gold where over the last few days we had a strong break off the August high for last year and anyone in short term trading positions could have got very excited buying more gold here only to be whipsawed out the other side. A lot of you guys have been with us for some time hopefully will know the importance of not committing to a view and being able to move and change your decision accordingly and I think this is never more important than here. I was almost tempted, I was talking to Sam yesterday I've stayed out of US stocks for a very long time and not to get caught up in this rally but I was almost tempted at the beginning of the week to start to place some decent shorts on the S&P 500 really if we were able to stay below the sort of 3210 handling the S&P but once again going against that momentum really would have shown itself to be folly. As you know I've talked with you guys before I do have personally viewed on long gold and gold miners and those trades are going well obviously not as well today as they were going two days ago I'm happy to sort of share with you how I've followed that trend here with that first entry on this miner and then getting out on the trendline break as you know we sort of try and teach everybody discipline on the technical analysis then long again scaling out of some of that trade and then entering again on the trendline break it's an incredibly rocky ride as it is across really all of these assets at the moment as we're moving to such aggressive geopolitical news so on that front what's going on in the world today and what's moving markets well one of the reasons again for US equities continuing to push higher is the positive news flow that's now coming out after the initial escalation of Iran first of all here we've got China sending their deputy is on his way really to go and see Trump and try and sign the trade deal and that was one of the things that really kept US equities back in 2019 well hardly kept them back but one of the reasons that was there was some weight in US equities so that looks like that's continuing to going to support in 2020 if you just look at the headlines from Bloomberg first piece of news is China China deal being signed you've got Trump strike paying off now after Iran backs away from further escalation higher German industrial output we had really good US data out yesterday in ADP employment 200,000 verses the 124 expected there's equity specific news stories coming out about Tesla so Tesla's up now $500 a share compared to the $200 it was just back in June so all round looking across the news sources it's an incredibly positive atmosphere out there very very different to literally just three or four days ago and I'm finding this type of market environment absolutely fascinating really it's perfect for traders who are able to respond to fundamental news and remain agile and remain flexible but my goodness for those traders who are holding on to trades that are whipsawing themselves out on the shorter term then it's just so difficult I mean here this is an example looking at oil that I've put together just over the last few minutes Soleimani killed we had oil was trading at $61 a barrel when that news first broke and hit the newswires we pushed up to 64 check out this level in oil here 62 34 we're oscillating this is really important this technical level but anyway with the Soleimani death pushed us above that we did come back and test it for a classic long as you can see we then rebounded and we tested this key level in oil as the world was trying to work out what this means will Iran respond or not we then do get an Iranian response and then everybody piles back into oil obviously that's when gold then went again touched $1,600 as well big move in assets within an hour or so that starts to de-esculate as it looks like there's no US deaths no real damage done we break through the 62 34 level retest it from the belly and then you get Trump's speech coming out where he suggests there's no further escalation and net net after all of that oil now trades a full $1 below where it was before this holderbarkle kicked off it really is fascinating and I'm sure there's a lot of people out there that have biases that would then be plowing into positions and getting whipsawed out so you must maintain your news feeds stay absolutely on top of everything that's going and of course as Anthony's been telling you guys that are really more important than ever before so I mentioned ADP already just to go back to the finish on the Iran news the latest news we're getting lots of positive news flow of course it looks like Donald Trump has played his hand well so far the UK are now falling in and saying that this was perhaps the right decision to do and they see it as legal such a grey area to be honest I do have a different view but I'm myself really struggling to or trying to make sure that I've got the kind of open mind that we're helping our guys here develop I don't think this is the end of the response from Iran I do believe that this is the end of the official sort of face saving retaliation it seems to have worked out that both sides have been able to save face as a result of what's happened but there's nothing now to stop Iran continuing its less if you like obvious retaliation to this event and definitely there's very little incentive to stop the longer term plan for the enrichment of uranium which will still then keep markets on their toes but this is all long term stuff really and as you've seen in US equity markets it's that short term optimism with expected loose monetary policy with companies performance doing incredibly well it's very hard to stop this train and with the bearish views out there and I for one have had a bearish view that if we continue to see this geopolitical confrontation the likelihood of a misstep happening is increased and the likelihood of something unexpected happening which leads to something else unexpected that chaos theory is prevalent well it hasn't happened yet and Martin just can't stand in the way of it I do believe though there's still a potential for that chaos theory to play out but it's just not now so I have to step away from it and not get in the way there's obviously the bigger power plays as well happening in the region with the US stepping back and more Russian influence in the Middle East certainly and then potential alliance between Iran, Russia and China all of these bigger plays are certainly in my mind but that's not what's moving markets at the moment and you've just got to follow the momentum as it moves just quickly then on the UK not too much happening in the UK at the moment that's moving markets just at Boris Johnson and Ursula they've obviously met again talking about each other's red lines for the EU negotiations we do have some UK retail data out today next Sainsbury's Morrison's so expect those to come out and to be slightly disappointing relatively gloomy outlook although I think the outlook for UK stocks as a whole they've still got some way to go after the vote at the end of last year and actually on the front of all the papers here in the UK if you're not logging in from the UK you might not know but of course the poor royal family getting it in the ear again is Harry and Megan decide to up up sticks and leave so that's dominating the front pages of the papers again which sort of tells you perhaps the seriousness of the other geopolitical events are being given at the moment so looking forward to today then guys it's a relatively quiet day data wise we've got US initial jobless claims coming out at 130 given that non-farm payrolls is out tomorrow that's going to be the main event given that ADP was a strong beat you'd expect US initial jobless claims to beat its 220 expected again this week and then non-farm payrolls tomorrow and we're expecting 160 160,000 but to be on it doesn't hugely matter at the moment employment data I mean employment levels are so low it's not really going to change the Fed trajectory the only thing to look out for is the wage inflation just in case there's any type of inflation replay and that was one of the longer term plays that was going to be as well dominating the news wires over the coming weeks if oil did stay elevated back towards 70-80 dollars with the continued liquidity in the market would that create inflation repression well I think when it comes to inflation you just have to try and forget that idea and believe it when you see it as Japan has shown we can go a long long way with ultra loose monetary policy without inflation coming abound but yeah oil firmly back in it's year two year long trend here right in the middle you could say between the 50 and the sort of 67 dollar range so that really trumping able to play his hand incredibly well at the moment and let's see how long that can last for that's it for me today I guys just to warn you you know quiet markets really expected the continuation of now the risk on trend is expected but please heed my advice and stay absolutely glued to the newswires stay absolutely glued to your Twitter and of course to Anthony Chung he'll be in very shortly and when it comes to trading these opportunities you know one of the things that we're trying to develop traders is that scaling out when your when things are going your way don't expect a continuation of these moves indefinitely we all do it we all get over excited we all get over ambitious and try and push our trades far too far but definitely the tactic to try and follow here is having an open mind taking an opportunity when it comes responding to the news but then also being quick to take money off the table when that trades going your way and not expecting a continuation in the move and if you don't believe me just check out the whipsaws that you've seen in gold or oil or even here in stocks over the last few days ok guys that's it for me closing the market briefing for January the 9th I look forward to seeing you guys in the room talking about some of your trading have a good day ahead thank you