 This is covering the spread here are your hosts Jim Saunas and Dr. Ed Fang What is going on everybody welcome on into covering the spread? That's right here on the fan dual podcast network and number fire Com as we're taking a look at some men's college basketball tournaments breaking down the conference turnies and where we can find some value With Andy Molitzer of the deep dive podcast. My name is Jim Saunas. I am a senior writer and analyst for number fire Dot-com joined here as always by Ed Fang you can find his work over at the power rank Dot-com and on Twitter at the power rank Ed You have a busy week this week because these Sloan analytics conference going down in Boston. So how you doing today? I'm doing great. I'm Busting my butt trying to get all the March madness stuff together And then I take off Thursday for Boston my yearly pilgrimage I don't know if it's year 11 or 12, but it's in a row, but it's been It's been many years in a row so on your podcast you do a good job of talking about food Have you ever ventured across the river to like Cambridge? I guess no MIT's yeah I guess I host it in downtown Boston But if you ever ventured across the river to go to Cambridge while you're out there at Sloan Yeah, actually I've been to Meat Hall the last past two. Yes. Oh my gosh. That's what I was gonna recommend So weirdly Because you're a Midwesterner I feel okay. I guess now you're a Midwester I feel okay to have all done the fact that I have a weird obsession with ranch dressing the ranch dressing at Meat Hall Is the most delicious ranch dressing I have had in my entire life So you need to go there. Uh, other one is dark horse or no four horses tavern Four or five horses. I don't think I've been there, but yeah, I think I've heard of it They have skillet cornbread That is it tastes like candy basically Nice and you need that so go back to Meat Hall first of all get some ranch dressing And then go to five four or five horses and get the cornbread and a duck burrito and then you're set. Okay Duck burrito is probably the better recommendation than the cornbread, but Uh, you mean you're gonna talk to the Sloan guys about getting it not so close to March Madness You're not dying for these couple of weeks Yeah, but I mean it's also good to talk to people right before March Madness and remind them that exist and Um, tell them about the podcast series. I'm I'm doing on my podcast this year. So oh, which I am doing Uh, I'm gonna do bracket wisdom on the football analytics show this year. Uh, it's gonna launch Monday March 9th um, but I just wanted to bring on Meat Hall again because yeah, uh The reason I know about that is because some dudes were hanging out there One year this may have may have been four or five years ago and They were a bunch of betters and what a lot of betters do is they show up at the conference and don't buy a ticket and just hang out. Yeah, which is Honestly a pretty good idea smart. I got a friend coming in that that's staying with me. That's gonna do that because One the conference is very expensive and two sometimes the tickets sell out And you can get a lot from just the people that are hanging out. I mean there's always a Thursday night Gathering of the basketball analytics folks at fours, which basically everyone goes to now Um, so if you're listening to this, uh, I mean, I'll be at fours on Thursday night unless I die before then I assume Keith golden will be there too. He brought us there a couple years ago. So right So Keith Keith is usually there. Rufus is always there Uh, probably a bunch of other people that we've had on the show as well Um, so yeah, a lot of people just come to hang out because You know, it's just a good chance to see the friends and um, you know, I mean the conference is worthwhile to me I'm I'm never much of a talk kind of guy But I do enjoy all the people that are there and chatting with people and you just never know who's gonna show up and And make things interesting. So it's always a good time. Uh, heading off there this week and I'll let you know how it goes And meat hall has that nice second floor. We were there for like, uh It was an alumni event. I don't know why there would be an alumni event in boston I did not go to school near boston But like it was in november of 2016 and nobody was in a good mood But it was still fun because it was it was me at all. So, uh, Recommend you go back there. I mean, you never even mentioned the reason why most people go to meat hall For the beer, I assume. Yeah, the beer selection. I mean, it's most it's ranch dressing one ranch dressing two And then beer three to me. You need to realize my priorities revolve around ranch dressing. There you go Well, I'm the opposite of I I the beer selection is pretty awesome. It is and Main brewing company has a bunch of really good IPAs and they Started distributing in bars in boston last year, which makes the trip even better. Uh, so lunch and dinner are just Phenomenal IPAs. Are you an IPA guy? Yep. Okay. Did not know that. Um, absolutely It's not an IPA but while you're in the northeast I can just I can just unload all my northeast knowledge Which is very limiting because I didn't leave the house while I was there because it's very expensive to leave the house while I was in boston, um It's try to find switch back It's a vermont beer from burlington vermont And I have found it a couple of times in boston. We went to the the brewery when we were in burlington once but Every time we find it in boston. I found it once in syracuse But it has like it's like the same bottle as like red stripe, which is always fun because it's like novel But like the beer is amazing So find switch back get interesting from meat hall and get a duck burrito from the whatever number of horses it may be The official recommendations for sure We're gonna get andy molleter in and I was talking to that about boston Which I used to where I used to live andy is also in a place where I used to live He is right outside my hometown. Uh, we'll talk about that. Uh find andy on twitter at andy msf w again He is a co-host of the deep dive podcast You probably know whale capper from the times you've had him on andy is a co-host well capper and it's always nice for me Because andy has a minnesota accent and I miss minnesota accents with most of my heart And getting to listen to andy talk with whale capper. I get the good insights of both of them But also I get my minnesota accent fix, which is deeply needed almost as much as my ranch dressing So, uh, make sure you follow andy on twitter and check out the deep dive podcast We're gonna break down mens college basketball conference tournaments Which kick off this week, uh, his betting model what he looks for in mid majors that could surge and all that stuff to make sure You get every podcast here on covering the spread and make sure you are subscribed because we're gonna have plenty of Turdy talk coming up the next couple of weeks as well to search for covering the spread wherever you get your podcast Subscribe rate and review and uh, we thank you those of you who have done so already now before we bring on andy I gotta put my tail between my legs and uh walk off and go back through the xfl bet from last week because oh boy It was a doozy Covering the past All right, so last week I had the xfl my covering the future segment for the second time this year And for the second time this year went horribly So I am officially retiring from betting on the xfl if I try to talk about it Hit me like slap me virtually whatever you need to do Don't let it happen because it was bad. I might Or I might give you a lecture on small sample size of uh, what three bets two That's better though. I think I'm gonna take your view. That's also I'll take that we got good closing line value I had the dc defenders minus one against the temp by vipers The thought process for me was that the line was overreacting to week three with the defenders flopping Cardell Jones throwed four picks and the vipers finally showed life got the good line movement. They closed at I think it was like five. Uh, so like four points of value That was positive The game was not they did not score a single point. They got shut out 25 to nothing It was a bloodbath cardell jones was I don't remember what year the championship run was for osu He was the year after that where he got benched for jt barrett. That's what that was the cardell jones We saw there complete reversal the first two weeks the vipers defense made some big strides and where it was previously So that that sucked my future bet before the season also sucked. So I'm out Your you can give me the small sample size lecture if you want, but I'm out until I get a good read I'm ton. I'm finished never touching this thing ever again Well, first of all, if you're listening to the show and you lose two bets in a row But secondly, I mean we're talking about cardell jones and that just reminded me of a little bit of analysis I did kind of in my head over the fall in terms of teams that Have won the national championship that name is not alabama. Yeah, and all of them have an nfl quarterback Except for that ohio state team So and you talked about how you know cardell jones had a great three games, right? I remember spending a lot of time figuring out how to how I had to adjust ohio state's number Against alabama. I think he started against wisconsin in the big 10 championship game He was amazing over three games and then couldn't win the job the next year against jt barrett. So You know again small sample size, right? I mean that that was an incredible Fluke I don't yeah fluke. I don't know just just an outlier performance for three games from cardell jones I mean, I'm not saying he's terrible, but he's certainly not in the nfl and Usually you need an nfl caliber quarterback to win a college football title I remember panicking after that stretch for cardell where it looked like he was going to come out for the draft Because each year for number five I write a breakdown to the top quarterbacks In the draft statistically and like a lot of it is based on experience like The more experience you have relative to your age the the more likely you are to not bust basically Um, he had three starts or three games with with 10 pass attempts or whatever it was and the the low is Was it I think it might be dwayne haskins now at like 15 So like but it was mark sanchez at 16 before that So there was no precedent for a guy with that small of a sample ever translating to nfl success So I was like, oh my gosh How do I defend the fact that i'm not going to like cardell jones to like people because like people yell at me on twitter Like I got yelled at for to shan kaiser not liking him like people yell at very weird things But I was like, oh man, I'm gonna be very low on him people are gonna like hate on me And like I was so relieved when he announced he was coming back because I just got to avoid this massive massive headache That was my main motivation was avoiding the headache I think there's a really good reason why you look at number of starts Like coaches know what they're doing right they see things in practice and they're gonna put the best guy out there There's a reason cardell jones was a third stringer. Uh, I've always I mean even when michael trabisky was drafted Marky's williams is in the xfl by the way Showing why he was starting a relationship single nfl start And pitchel trabisky was that good? How come he couldn't beat him out the year before right? Yeah, trabisky started one year at north carolina Obviously had a strong arm and a lot of physical attributes, but Ask yourself the question like why couldn't he beat out a guy that? You know isn't a good nfl quarterback, right? And if you were to point out one concern with joe burrow It's that one Also lower experience age 20 coming off his age 23 season I like joe burrow and I want to make that clear But if you were to have a red flag there, it would be that for sure Yeah, and I think that's balanced with you know, I mean he does have two years as a starter True and he's got eight games that were not great Ish and then four games that were pretty good and then Probably some of the best quarterback you've seen in college football. Absolutely. So that I mean that probably makes burrow You know the hardest, right? Yeah, absolutely. And like It's it's tough because like age matters a lot too and he's coming off his age 23 season Right slightly concerning, but like again When you watch the guy, it's really hard for me to have like any real concerns because like He was so good to get such a tough schedule and he's projected number one, right? Yep Pretty much a no doubter They've taken it off the board a fandal sports book Because like I think it's just such a such a lock at this point. So I I can't I I will never argue against joe burrow, but if you were to do so that would be your main argument would be Not starting older and experienced and uh card hell jones Oh boy Just I mean yeah the xfl forever I mean it'd be interesting to see You know what urban mire or whoever those he was that year Would say about him now Yeah, I would be very interested in that too. Um Because like you said coaches know what they're doing the nfl knows that they're doing too Like draft stock matters so much for which quarterbacks pan out Exactly because like I liked your locker last year, but the faculty fell in the second round lowers his odds of hitting significantly So These people are good at what they're doing. We should trust some of their judgment for sure So instead of having me talk about the xfl We're going to bring an anti-molitor here in just one second But first if you want to get in on the action Check out the fandal sportsbook and place your first bet today If you lose fandal will give you a refund of up to 500 dollars in site credit Visit sportsbook dot fandal dot com for more details terms and conditions apply Must be 21 plus and physically present in new jersey pennsylvania west virginia or indiana gambling problem call 1 800 gambler Let's bring on andy molitor now finding my twitter at andy msf w. He is one of the co-host on the deep dive podcast We're going to talk some men's college basketball conference tournaments Get his thoughts there and of course and pick andy's brain on southeastern minnesota as well Covering the present We're now joined here by andy molitor the other side of the deep dive podcast We've got whalecaper on like a bunch of times and we gotta we got to cover all the basis here on the deep dive podcast So andy welcome to the show. How you doing today? Pretty good. It's it's exciting times for this is march This is march. Joe. Exactly. We had to wait an extra day this year, but andy rockstein. We'll call you. Yeah But andy we were talking before the show and I am from a tiny tiny tiny town in minnesota And you are talking to us right now from a town 15 miles away. You were in rochester I am from caston and This is blowing my mind that I get to talk to someone from the 507 on a podcast about this So you're just you're making my day and I hope you know that Yes, I stopped at the burger king over in caston. It's still terrible Always has been the quick trip though cannot be slandered. I you cannot slander any quick trip. That's right Top customer service there. I love those places But yeah, no beautiful little chunk of minnesota down here southeastern minnesota. That's weird that uh, I Knew you're from the area. I didn't know you're that close. Oh pretty cool We got some uh, some high school wrestling talking before and everything. So, uh, maybe we'll I don't think we can get any markets on those but once those are available We're gonna have to bring you back andy. That was yeah with legalization in iowa, right? That's huge down there You had to someday just go to diamond. Joe. You're good. You know, absolutely just a short little bop down there We can we'll we'll see what we can get working there for sure But never fade the cast of manneville comments. I can tell you that for sure now andy The reason we wanted you on today outside of me indulging in some minnesota talk is that your betting process since teens and center around betting mid majors men's college basketball and That's a unique skill set, you know from a betting perspective. So what about mid majors? Do you think allows you to be more successful in those markets? I just think maybe less information Going into the market as far and even as you get down later in the season, you know, you'll see People say that about any sport. Oh the lines are tighter. The lines are sharpening up and I mean, it's a It's something everyone says but it's kind of true as well, especially like in the NFL but just more and more information is poured into the market via Stats and just the the results of the games but also by the the people who are betting into it They're giving the books the information and it's the same kind of thing in any sport And I think in a lot of these smaller leagues are just so small of a handle And we did talk to on the deep dive a few weeks ago We talked to a bookmaker about that me I mean he pretty much said that There's even in general during the week even on some of the big games the handle and college basketball Is obviously nowhere near NFL levels and I just think some of these numbers can be wildly off I'm not even gonna say how far off I have some of these that I make it Because it's it's laughable. I almost feel bad about my model sometimes. It's like like maybe I need to fix this like It can't be off by that much, but it does pretty well and I I enjoy those games to it It's it's become kind of a shtick where like one team every year will be A team that just does not get adjusted. Maybe they're not covering, you know huge They're just continuing to stay within the number But they're never you know blowing out a team They were a dog too and the market just never adjust for it and I end up betting like You know a team 15 times during a season, which is a lot then last year was the pepperdine I think waves I think so out in Malibu. They just Never adjusted. I kept pounding on pepperdine. I did really well with them this year other not not so close to the ocean But on the water there the the Niagara Purple Eagles just every week like before I know like I know like if they're an underdog in this game My model's gonna make them like a two-point favorite I'm going to have to bet it every time so it does become kind of fun just Knowing ahead of time before the numbers even come out. I'm probably gonna be in on some of these teams Excellent Andy. Tell us a little bit about the model that you have That you mentioned. I know it's um, you know college basketball. There's a lot of different team strengths. What are you doing with this model? Yeah, it's just A lot of the stats are super widely available for a lot of these teams And it's just been a lot of toying with it. It's not you know, it's not something static that I've done Exactly the same from the beginning. I've changed a lot of stuff, but And you go to team rankings and chem palm. I mean you could stop right there And there's there's so much information about all these teams and then when you get down to it There's 350 some teams There's a there's a lot of disparity between a lot of these teams and some of those If you start doing some back testing and looking at the weighting of Maybe what what you think matters and then looking back and seeing if it actually does You can start adjusting your weighting and like honestly, I've been working on Getting a little better at some coding, but I'm I'm still working 100 out of excel So it's a big my my model is just a really really big excel spreadsheet That's it's become quite bulky at this point and someday it's all going to move over but For now it's just you know, it's a lot of it's changing the weighting on a lot of these stats now I use them and seeing how uh Seeing how my numbers match up against the market every single day and Well, three o'clock comes three o'clock central those lines come out and I have my numbers made I punch them in and Then we start digging in Yeah, I mean code is to make your life easier and excel makes your life easier I mean you don't have to do multiplication for all 353 teams and do the weighing So there's nothing wrong with you know using using excel for that Andy also the conference tournaments, I think start today Are you looking to bet those in terms of individual games or maybe the the futures market? Who who's going to win those tournaments? So I do I do write previews for all 26 that aren't the the major ones. I did that last year it started out as I mean the point I'm starting to make here is they're so goofy Like they they are all so goofy like summer Home sites tie seed sites summer top seeds until you get to the semifinals, then it's a neutral site I started looking at that last year. I'm like I'm I'm lost like I'm gonna I'm gonna get so lost here in where these teams are playing I started writing down like every tournament where what the rules were for it Just so I could bet them and then like well I might as well just put these out because I'm already doing like three quarters of an article for every one of these conferences So I will bet those games But I mean that that's the point I was trying to make is you really do have to be careful when you're betting those games knowing like First off, where is this game played because there's so much And I mean there'll be neutral site stuff that's set up years in advance And it'll turn out one of the top teams That's their home gym or in charleston one of the years charleston played in a gym across town So it wasn't a home gym. So it said this is in charleston. It's not technically a home gym There's so much goofiness. So I will bet those games, but yeah, just I I implore people to kind of be careful with that and figure out what's going on I'm just games again. Do you have that right up available for this year too? Yep, I started I have the first four out. I just been posting those on my twitter So I did the the first four that came out today. I'm working on the next three for there's three more tournaments Let's start tomorrow. It's it's kind of a blitz right at the beginning There's like eight nine tournaments in the first three days Okay, so if you want to find that go to at andy msfw on twitter to find those breakdowns But that is like that's a pretty key thing and If we as betters are having a hard time keeping up with it The books probably aren't necessarily totally on top of everything either Which kind of goes back to what you were talking about where they may not put as much of an effort into it Which can give you a bigger edge is a better So do you find the intricacies of the tournaments give you An upper hand in just another way where you may be accounting for something more so than the books are Yeah, and that's something you could do looking into like I said the the style of the tournament Um medcalf over at circa. He said I mean he said that to me on twitter He we were looking for prices to come out and circa was one of the first ones And he said they did the Atlantic sun before the horizon because some just have an 18 bracket where you know It's a pretty standard single elimination. Whereas the horizon. I mean, I don't even think we have time to get into it it's While reseedings and like there's extra all these pigtails and stuff and then they reseed multiple times It's goofy. Like I can't imagine trying to put out futures Trying to figure out like you won't you won't even know who some of these teams are gonna play down the road So like kudos for anybody putting out prices on that But yeah, like you said, I think if you dig in you might be able to find some angles that maybe aren't there The books aren't accounting for and some of those things kudos and condolences I think are both in store there for uh bookmakers there now Let's talk about some individual teams here when you're looking at Markets right now for the conference tournaments beginning this week and they're not, you know, we don't have like futures for individual Conference tournaments on fandals so you can go wherever you want But are there any teams that stick out to you as being undervalued right now by the market? Yeah, and I think I mean do you start with the The the inverse part of that the overvalued teams. Yeah, like when you have a when you have an overvalued team in a conference You're gonna have some value elsewhere. And I mean right away liberty Liberty, I mean, I think people are just gonna look maybe what would be the first thing, you know A novice better might do when they're getting into a conference tournament Maybe look at the standings and liberty has 27 wins. They're a good team They're a good team, but it's there's still quite a bit of parity in that league up in the Atlantic sun And I definitely think there's some value on like north florida I think that got hit pretty hard actually and even Lipscomb And that's a team that they were in the finals last year. They actually hosted the finals last year So there's definitely some value to be had on some of these These lower teams, especially when you have maybe a favorite that's going to be a little more pricey Just based on record or flashiness or even like a known name Like I don't know a team that makes the tournament every year out of that conference Maybe people don't follow something like the patriot league But they've heard a cold gate because They're taking them plus 24 in the tournament the big tournament first round, you know every year Facing like North Carolina or something. So, you know, you get those known teams. Sometimes there is a Sometimes there's a shade of overvalued That's interesting. I mean that kind of suggests there's a lot of public money out there for people who don't really know what they're Talking about and just betting something that they know A little bit and I wanted to ask you real quick. Dayton and San Diego state have had fantastic seasons San Diego state might even get a one seed What do you have any takes on these teams and and how deep they could potentially go in the tournament? Yeah, this is something I've really had trouble with and this is something From the get-go my model struggles with like these teams that are in a mid-major conference that become outliers Like within, you know, there are so many more so many miles ahead Of a lot of the teams within their conference or in the mid-major market in general that like when I run numbers It just doesn't drive it says bet against Gonzaga every time San Diego state like it's like six points off. You should bet against them every time They're so good in their conferences that my numbers still make sense to them And then on the other side of things they don't really play anybody So it's really hard to gauge how these teams play when they get into some of this, you know The high level competition they're gonna face once they get into the big dance I definitely think, you know, they're all second weekend teams for sure I don't think they're so overrated that they'll be flaming out in the first round or something But it would be it would be tough for me to imagine like San Diego state or Dayton in the final four with Just how wide open this year is there's so many good teams I mean throughout the top 20 and a lot of them are blue bloods with experienced coaches just, you know Maybe a little even you know intimidation factor You go up and you're in the regional final against a duke or a kentucky or one of the blue bloods like that That's tough for a team like Dayton or san diego state who hasn't been there much I mean Dayton used to be the they were the team that always got the first four Like oh everybody's like oh, we got to bet him because the first four it's in Dayton Yeah, I don't think they are because they get a central home game, right? Yeah Yeah, that was baked in turned out. Yeah, so with Dayton Is that a team that you might be viewing as potentially primed be overvalued for their conference tournament as well or is this more so projecting them out for the NCAA tournament Do are you looking to potentially fade them in the conference tournament as well? Or is this more so just for the big dance? No, I definitely and it'll be it'll be price dependent when those come out Obviously all the all the prices aren't out for the conference tournaments are slowly leaking out as they start but I think You know like like I said with liberty. I was expecting a much lower number I was fully prepared to bet liberty if the number was right and then it came out Much different from where I thought it was going to be and I said I got to go a different direction I'm going completely opposite So I mean it's it's going to be price dependent But I think there is always room to fade those teams You can even find some two-way markets on some of the favorites like that where it'll just be say Hey It's a The field versus this top team the field versus day in the field versus San Diego State And when a team is like minus three four hundred to win the conference You can get a pretty nice number and you can you're getting a dozen teams You're basically getting will they screw up at some point the only one The only one I don't love to do that with this Gonzaga with they have a very goofy They have a very goofy conference tournament Where they get a triple buy so they only they only have to play like two games So that's awful tough, but definitely the other conference tournaments There's there's some room to be fading those teams Yeah, I mean, I think as good as Gonzaga is like st. Mary's and and b.y.u. are pretty good basketball teams And I can definitely see them tripping up Against one of those teams Oh, yeah Oh, yeah, they have a little more competition. That's here. It'll be that'll be a fun one Yeah, it should be interesting and Gonzaga is always fun to watch too Which doesn't hurt there You mentioned that markets have been a little bit slow to come out So it's possible there's not a whole lot we can bank on right now But any other bets you're looking to lock in right now for the conference tournaments that are starting this week Yeah, I mean I will bet almost almost every single tournament. In fact, I will I mean just for those those articles Like I said, you put the work in might as well, you know I know I I got like the third one last year and I said am I gonna bet every one of these Do I have to put something? I'm like, you know what I'm going to I'm gonna put something Small like this is the right thing's value. So, you know in the other leagues I did take some some small flyers and I did take one of those field bets You know, I I definitely um, I'm trying to look back at actually which one that was but I didn't take a field bet just because I thought somebody was overvalued I'm going to pull that up There is four of them so far that have started and like I said in the Atlantic sun I just took a couple of the the lower teams and I mean, maybe that field bet was the the look But it was uh, it was Colgate in the patriot. I can get plus 120 And I like that a lot because they're a really good team But there are still there's just this glut through the middle of like decent teams There's a couple teams that have beat them and I think they are just a little overvalued I like that a lot if you can get a two-way market or just start taking a few of the the longer shots in that patriot league It's a it's a really small conference. You know, you can have a lot of goofiness and something like that Sounds good. So Andy while we're here, uh, let's talk some golf and and xfl as well On a polymer invitationals this week and rory macaroy is a pretty massive favorite Plus 550 Any thoughts on this tournament and anything you're betting? Yeah, I was super disappointed when they ran my numbers because he he went right to the top like he's He's probably he's probably price tree should be like I have him as my top ranked golfer And when I put together the stats I wanted to look at for this week It's I mean his course history here's electric. He's been playing decent. He's rory He's good. I still don't think I'm gonna take I'm still not laying You know, I don't want to say laying because it's still it's not like I'm minus 110 to bet rory versus the field But it's still not not big enough number. I have a few other guys that came near the top I'm probably going to get on some bryson Just he owes me money Like congrats, I know some people I know a lot of people that had Patrick Reed and We have him on this podcast actually from the wgc mexican. I did I heard I heard that uh the other episode I listened to you guys when I get the chance nice, but uh Yeah, I know I Made me laugh with a truck knob lock hot dog story I I definitely remember that but uh back to yeah back to golf. Um Yeah, Patrick Reed has a I have a soft spot. I bet him in the masters at 50 to 1 when he got his jacket So I can't hate on the guy, but man that sucked because I had I usually will bet a few outrights and I only took one shot that week It was bryson that was it and boy if you can hit if you can hit a one outright And and lock it in and get it to cash for you that feels so good And I thought we had that in the bag that was rough, but yeah, he's just I go across all the stats I used all around golfer like he's hitting he's hitting all the high notes for me I can't uh, even at 16 to 1 it's not a huge number, but I like it enough for i'm gonna take some of him I mean mad suyama Sander a few of the other guys, you know, they're at the top for me, but I didn't love some of the numbers They have a few a few weaknesses that maybe maybe you're A little much for me to overcome even though they are popping towards the top I will take some long shots here, too. I'm pretty much embedding morakawa and hoveland every week Those are just my guys like the The ball striking so pure and they they do other things well, too Like they're just they're avoiding bogies They're winners. They're gonna win eventually and they have bigger numbers. They're both like 45 I think uh, I pulled the fan dual numbers. It was 45 for morakawa 48 for hoveland And then Matthew I'm not even good at this guy's name knee smith Yeah, knee smith So I spent I spent 10 minutes last week trying to figure out his pronunciation And then I found out it's literally in his twitter handle. It's his twitter handle is kn ee smith I was so mad when I saw that it's literally in his twitter handle It was knee smith. I was so mad about him last week. I was like intrigued by him, but I was still very angry But yes, I know your pain here. You're good Oh, I know I do a tennis podcast and there's times where I have to Like you go find you find a youtube video and you want to hear the announcer say it Like see if you can try to get the name right. I've done that 100 percent knee smith knee smith Top 10 bogey avoidance guy. He's a decent ball striker putt okay Like at 101. I'm taking some of him. He's the guy who's won He's won tournaments down on the corn ferry and he just Whenever I see a guy like that where you look at like the you know, you look at the price for Fantasy or a daily fantasy price that pops up on here And when there's a really low number there, you got to start looking like oh man, this guy's like 100 150 to one guy for sure I'm gonna have to definitely take a look at that and get knee smith a couple bucks at 101 I dig that okay. Um, the other thing with knee smith is you were talking about looking at youtube videos to try to figure out like Pronunciation and I did that with Matthew knee smith and I didn't actually hear the pronunciation of his name All I heard was him talking about shaving his goatee. So I tried to go the youtube route But it didn't actually work unfortunately uh, so you were talking about Guys, uh, who would just come up from the the other tours talking about hovland talking about more kawa Any interest in scottie sheffler another ball striking type guy As a potentially longer shot at 90 to one Boy, where did he end up? He's 90 to one Scotty Scotty's not too far. He's in my top 20. Okay, I need one stop yet. He's another Just pure That's it. Yeah, there's there's kind of this there is this like Group of these younger guys that every week they come up high Maybe I will have to add him. Okay, you know, you're I'm not putting much on these 191 90 to one No 75 to one guys And boy, it is super fun when they're in the mix on sunday. There's nothing nothing like the sunday sweat So no scottie. I think the only what the what's the knock that's keeping him down his short game's terrible His short game his approach isn't great and he's a little worse than the bogies So, I mean, he's still top 20. He does some things great. Good off the tee. Good ball striker Yeah, I don't mind that at all. So when I'm setting up my dfs I try to get key stats for each event. You were talking about doing the same thing So what's the process for you in determining which key stats you want to look at for that weekend's upcoming event? You know, I try to keep some notes from last year Which is tough because it wasn't betting until the masters last year Like this is like my first full cycle of actually betting golf kind of actually trying more than just tailing along with some buddies that give me some hot tips, you know, but I I bet every tournament I do a lot of head to heads, which I honestly, I think that's where That's where the money is anyway. It's so like outrides are sexy. Yeah, but head to heads is where the money's at I did very well on those last year. So until we do get to the masters I'm kind of just doing what I did last year and there's a lot of good writers out there There's a lot of good information where you can find some good course previews And you start reading about the course to read about, you know, what other people think is important And I like to get a few different perspectives on that and start putting it together It's a longer course, but the par fives are super easy If people if there's people that can attack par fives that aren't afraid of par fives They can go after some eagles there and score on those So, you know, those are guys that are going to make the cut and end up on the leaderboard on sunday So I mean that had to be a big part of it They have to just it's not going to be one of those birdie fests where somebody's winning at 22 under You know, you kind of you gotta look at some some past history of what happened at that course And it's going to be something maybe in the 10 to 15 range So somebody can score on the fives avoid some bogies try to end up some, you know Three four under per day end up at 12 under on sunday Get it done for me. All right. I like that. So Andy before I let you go I suck at XFL betting. So I'm going to ask for your opinions here Got some XFL championship odds over a fando sportsbook Houston plus 185 St. Louis is plus 350 of jordan tamu Any teams you like at their current numbers or any teams you're looking to broadly buy in the coming weeks because I have no Feel for the XFL. So I'm going to lean on you here and let you do this instead of me Yeah, I uh, I made future bets along the way. So I feel good. I'm at I had I had houston off the get go I posted them on twitter like seven and a half to one and I got a bunch of dms. Like hey, it's it's Actually a fandal like give you guys some shine. Somebody said fandal has 12 to one. It was a guy out on the east coast I'm like, I might have to go down to Iowa Like, you know, the offshore just didn't have that number But I got some I found some nine to one on houston. So I'm sitting pretty there I bought into st. Louis when it was a little lower. I think I got a nine or 10 to one there So I have the two best outrides. Like I'm I'm not excited about adding it. You know, it depends if somebody doesn't have Uh a portfolio like that obviously it might be a time to add and I kind of looked at la Like because they are they're one in three, but it's 15 to one I've seen some flashes from johnson. Like they have a decent quarterback. They have a decent offense They're one in three, but they have a positive touchdown ratio or net touchdowns Like they can be good and I think maybe you know, it's it's houston's Conference or whatever they're calling the two splits over they made it I think, you know, houston's gonna run away with it But another team will make the playoffs and five wins might get it done They get seattle twice. They get to host tampa Like they just really got to find one more win and get those done They could get five maybe six wins get into the playoffs. So 15 to one's a little heavy I don't think I could buy into any of their teams at the current prices It's it's just tough. They they've priced the the good teams good and and houston Houston already has a couple nice wins. It beats st. Louis You know, they got the win down in dallas It's It is what it is with their price and that's where it should be like they should be the it should be the favorite I think if I were in your position there, uh, even outside of myself imposed xfl embargo betting I would also be good to stand pat with houston and uh, st Louis but also with la like josh johnson leads the league and adjusts yards per attempt So I can buy into that one as well That is andy molitor make sure you follow him on twitter to get that conference tournament breakdown at andy msf w and checking out as well on the deep dive podcast andy was awesome to get you on here today Really appreciate your time. Good luck with all the conference tournaments. Hopefully we can talk to you again sometime Yeah, thanks a lot guys a lot of fun Like I said i'm a listener. It's cool another minnesotan Talking about the the knob lock that was dollar dome dog night. It was that was the main Yeah, those people could get dollar hot dogs and they were just whipping them at knob lock So no, it's been a lot of fun guys and uh, hope you have good luck here in march as we move towards the tournament And I know ed's super involved in that with his uh Big game theory tournament guy. I had a lot of fun talking about that last year Yeah, the two things I remember being chucked from the upper deck at the dome Dollar hot dogs and terry tiffy bobble heads. Those are the two things for whatever reason I remember getting chucked from the upper deck. So, uh I'll happily talk about dollar dog night any night absolutely andy Well, thank you so much. We appreciate it and good luck Thanks guys Covering the future Once again, a big thank you to andy monitor for swinging by and breaking down those The xfl for me and also talking some golf and uh men's college basketball as well Find them on twitter at andymsfw to get that breakdown of the conference tournaments and add like I said Music to my ears to get a minnesota accent here on the podcast for people who don't know though The minnesota accent is mostly northern minnesota because i'm from southern. I'm basically iowan Uh, or iowan. I don't know whatever. Um, I'm basically from iowa Um, so like I don't really have like as much of the accent, but if you're from northern minnesota It's thick like my uncle is from just south of twin cities. You would think he was in the movie fargo So like it's it's very variable based on where you are, which is I think very interesting Yeah, absolutely. I mean It's clearly from the midwest so it's yeah, it's great. We got to get a uper on here sometimes so we can uh check all the boxes and uh If you figure all that stuff out for sure And I always preach searching for the best value embedding on games and look no further than the odds comparison Our engineers have developed over at numberfire.com odds fire is the premier odds comparison experience across major Bookmakers in the regulated u.s. Market compare odds quickly identify the best value And even examine first party fan dual data all in place never settle always get the best odds Check out the experience for free now on number fire or at odds fire dot com gambling problem call 1 800 gambler Let's dive now into covering the future and uh march madness just around the corner What are you talking about today here in covering the future? Yeah, so I wanted to talk about some of the work I've been doing in in college basketball analytics and particularly my market rankings So what this does is it takes closing spreads from the markets and adjust for who you played to get Uh a ranking for teams and it's also a predictor in the the usual sense that you know You get a prediction every team has a rating and you get a prediction by subtracting the ratings of the two teams And I've worked a bunch of my college basketball model In the run up to march and what I found is that this market component is the most predictive So it actually has the most weight more than when I look at points per possession Adjusted for schedule like this is what this is the biggest driver in my model right now. So Um, and this is pretty consistent what what ken barkley was telling us about some of the stuff that he had He said he was essentially doing an elo rating based on the markets It's going to be similar to what I have maybe a little bit weighted more towards later games Although I do wait recent my market rankings are the one place where I do wait recent games more than games long and past But uh based on what I've done with my market rankings. I can see why his stuff was working on opening lines so much um So what I thought we'd do is go through top 10 teams and my college basketball market rankings I'll make some points here and there and just compare and contrast with with what we have in terms of Adjusted efficiency, which I have as well. So top team is kansas. I think they're going to enter the tournament as the favorite So and and I think they should be the favorite The second team is duke Also a team that I think checks a lot of boxes in terms of having the talent to win the tournament They actually haven't done quite so well in the court lately. I mean they got blown out at north carolina state Lost to virginia this past week. So when I look at them from an efficiency perspective, they're seventh Uh, coach chaos has talent. So you definitely can't count them out Three and four is where I think it's gets a little bit interesting. I have ganzaga at three Phenomenal job by mark few. He lost two pretty incredible NBA players in reary hystamura and brandon clark Two guys that are doing very well in their rookie seasons And he still has this team near the top of college basketball It's just a really impressive job and for michigan state You know if I would have told you before especially before saturday when they they beat maryland on the road That michigan state was the fourth best team in my numbers. I think a lot of people would be pretty skeptical about that But that's what the markets are saying. Um, I'm gonna have a lot more to say about this team Before the start of the tournament preseason ap number one Obviously that was part of that was joshua langford who's not playing with us anymore But we'll get to the more in a little bit Michigan state is actually a head of bailar a team that has been very good this year. They're at fifth Louisville at sixth Maryland's at seventh, which I think is pretty interesting. Remember my It's weighted the recent games are weighted more than games at the beginning of the season Maryland was a much bigger favorite in the markets. I think there were a two and a half three point favorite In the markets then then I had them in the prediction. So Um, they're getting helped by that Um, I think it's a very good team It looks like a more engaged maryland team than I've ever seen under mark turgeon So I think they are a very interesting team as well Uh eight, I have west virginia fourth big 12, uh team in there and they are definitely no slouch at all On ninth is florida state and then tenth is arizona arizona is a team that is very volatile They have three first round draft picks as freshmen on that team So we're gonna they're gonna be a very high ceiling team that could lose in the round of 64 So they're gonna be a super interesting team as well So two teams that you will notice that are not in this top 10 are datan and san diego state So that's basically saying that the markets Wouldn't favor them over any of those top 10 teams Heading into the tournament Uh, it's obviously a different story efficiency wise datan is third when I look at adjusted points per possession They have one of the best Offenses in the nation very good three point shooting team san diego state is sixth Uh, they were actually much higher before losing to unlv Within the past couple weeks. So I hope that gives you a sense for you know What's going on with my college basketball numbers? Uh, what we can expect heading into the tournament and uh, yeah We'll talk a lot more about this over the next two weeks I think it's very interesting that The futures market aligns better With your efficiency numbers and it does with the market numbers because you would think markets would correlate But they don't because west virginia is 40 to 1 And michigan states 20 to 1 they were longer than that when you actually you were on michigan states like a month ago Talking about how segment I couldn't remember if I did a segment on them specifically you mentioned them And I said hey, what do you think michigan state? I think they were like 30 or something like that They're 20 now So you were ahead of the curve of michigan state, but It's weird to see west virginia On a single game basis grading out so well But being 40 to 1 Like you would think that the the markets would correlate more than that But I think that that also could provide value to go against What the straight up efficiency numbers are saying because clearly these numbers are accounting for the efficiency numbers that you have Um, I mean in some sense, right? I mean there definitely are differences. Um, you know another another one So kentucky's 12th in these market numbers um My numbers have consistently liked kentucky more than the the lines in the markets at this point, so I'm always interested in the consistency of markets, right and we can always check that by like Doing this analysis on the closing lines and then projecting forward For the tournament and you know oftentimes they're not consistent and we and we find that in football as well Right. Um, so I think that's definitely a place for opportunity Awesome. Looking forward to that for sure from my government the future I want to talk some NASCAR today because I think this weekend's race is honestly fascinating because Going into this week. I was expecting to be buying low on the Joe Gibbs racing car specifically kyle busch Martin Truex junior and denny hamlin because that team has struggled through the past two races and I thought people would be down on them, but it's a new package this week It's a wildly different uh package in the past two races And these cars cleaned up on this track type last year Then I saw the odds at westgate and saw oh no, oh no, no, no We are not buying low on jogan's racing. They are still varying on them. All three of those drivers are six to one or shorter Uh based on the odds at westgate. So there's no buy low window there unless the odds wind up being longer elsewhere So flagging those three but based on these odds no chance But there is a buy high chance somewhere else and right now If we look at my model it has five drivers grouped at the top in a tier of their own for this race It's the top three cars uh at jgr kyle busch martin truex junior denny hamlin The odds aligned with them same thing is true for kevin harvick He is third in my model But he's also six to one the fifth guy in that top tier before there is a drop off is ryan blaney He is actually a tenth of a point like very close Uh in my model behind harvick and hamlin But he's 12 to one and they're both six to one That's a pretty enticing value to me because if you've been watching nascar this year You probably understand why blaney is so high on this list He has been super close to winning all three races so far this year and they've been on three different track types He was two feet short of the win in datona Then he was two laps short in las vegas and the last week in fontana He was probably going to finish second behind alex bowman, uh, but then he had a tire issue He had to pit late. He ruined a lot of dfs lineups, but hey, you know, whatever it's a new week But the overall point here is that blaney has been crazy fast and my model is fully bought into it He was awesome on these He's been awesome so far this year and he was also awesome on this track type in 2019 There were seven races that i classify as being short and flat last year Blaney was in the top five for five of the seven races He had a top seven average running position in all five where he finished well too So not fluky finishes good races with good finishes two of those were in phoenix Which is where they are this weekend in the first race. He actually led 94 laps and finished third He was third in the fall race too. He had a fifth place average running position there So he has elite current form Very good track history very good on this track type and my model thinks his odds should be much shorter than where they are so This is based on the west gate odds because not a ton of places have nascar odds out as of right now as a tuesday for phoenix So i would say Check out specifically denny hamlin to see where he's at because if you can get him at a longer number Based on the past two weeks hop on that But if you get blaney at 12 to 1 or even like 10 to 1 I would be fully in on that yet again I've had blaney as my one of my win picks like every week so far this year But we're going to go back to the well here once again. It's almost worked out. So we're going to try one more time ed I know that was all pop probably gobbledygook So I just want to ask though, right? I mean I you know Margin of victory is obviously crucially important when you're ranking teams So with blaney like you know being two laps behind in one race is no two feet Well, sorry one didn't see two laps He was leading with two laps left and then there was a caution that came out And his crew chief decided to have him pit And a couple other drivers stayed out And it was a tactical mistake because enough drivers stayed out where I mean it did give joey legano the win that I bet on legano twos like I was fine with it, but like I you know, he would have had a win there. So I probably phrased it poorly Margin of victory Can matter because like last week in fontana Alex bow and put a butt whooping on the field and like I want to make sure I account for that So in a sense, yes, it does matter to me All right But yeah, it's uh, cool. It's been a an interesting start for blaney so far I have lost money on him so far, but We're going to keep on doubling down We're going to bank on that sample size argument you have before because I think that He's still from a process perspective makes too much sense for me to back off of especially When I can still get him at 12 to 1 that is all that we have for today here on covering the spread ed You mentioned the podcast coming back on the football analytics show with your march madness previews I listened to those last year to help prep for our podcasts that we had for march madness And I'm excited that they're back again this year Yeah, I'm excited as well. Although it is a lot of work I'm hoping to not die quite as bad as I did last year after that was all over But it will uh, yeah, if you go to football analytics show, they'll be you know in the title They'll be labeled bracket wisdom. So uh, and they should appear daily from Monday, March 9th until the start of the tournament That is outstanding. Yeah, still a little plus minus about what their daily means on weekends as well So we'll see how many episodes So we get done We have a show here called the daily iso which does not go weekend. So I'm fully in favor of pretending weekends don't exist Right. Well in terms of producing content, right? Like absolutely content doesn't exist in the weekends I no one reads it. I'm not going to produce it. That's just the way it goes So make sure you check out I mean people did I mean people did listen to the some of the weekend shows, but yeah, it was definitely a little bit down so Save yourself the effort, you know, yeah So I also wanted to mention I just posted uh, the ultimate guide to predictive college basketball analytics Uh, I go through and get into the nitty-gritty of how uh, you make predictions in college basketball Which not only applies to college basketball, but is very relevant for what I do in football as well and then Also look at the four factors and whether matchups and the four factors can help you predict games better. So Uh, I've gotten some pretty good feedback on that so far So you can check that out at the power rank dot com And then the book is at the power rank dot net as well and the podcast starting monday will be at the football analytics show Follow that on twitter at the power rank. I am at jim sonnis j i m s a n n e s You can also follow the fan dual podcast network at fan dual podcast big Thank you to calvin theobald or video producer from the video side of things here today Thank you cal as always and thank you to andy molitor for swinging by and breaking down some men's college basketball conference tournament play Follow andy on twitter at andy m s f w. Thank you to everybody for tuning in for today Really appreciate all of you back again next week probably talking more men's college basketball We will talk to you all then and good luck with your bets until that time This has been covering the spread right here on the fan dual podcast network