 Okay, very good morning guys Thursday 11th of February. Hope everyone is doing well Just wanted to quickly mention Our new podcast the market watch which we officially launched this week We've actually made it into the top 10 of the Apple podcast chart for investing So just wanted to give a huge thanks to to the community, you know one thing that I'm you know super Happy to have is such an engaging and such a supportive community that follow Amplifier so honestly, I can't can't thank everyone enough has some really great feedback and comments about the podcast and You know, we've managed to to beat out some of the lights in the BBC Motley for Bloomberg and some of the other ones so Kind of feels good to to stick it to the suits so to speak And we did it without mentioning really Bitcoin or all the word billionaire Yeah, thank you. Thank you very much. And you know one of the main things is my job As a lot of you will know is to aggregate news. I've worked in that kind of space for almost 15 years now And you know, I hope that the podcast is not only informative but delivered in a way That's not just vanilla like what you hear with a lot of Financial news, which is quite frankly quite boring. So hopefully the more informal style at the end of the week Is something that that you and enjoy if you've not listened, please do check it out. Check it out It'd be amazing, of course if we could get up to the top three So again, it's on Apple. It's on Spotify. It's on all the major platforms If you've not already done so, please please give it a follow if you like it rate it and Leave a comment. That'll be that'll be awesome But let's get straight to it enough of that and let's look at the charts And what's going on and actually a particularly quiet open? I would say and Actually talking about what's going on isn't going to take me too much time at all and a really important lesson here I think for any new traders definitely was something I was taught very early in my career Which was whenever there is, you know, you do people have a like a morning routine, right? I mean, I'm Like pretty much rigid like a machine in my morning routine. I get up at this time. I do my coffee this way You know, I put my clothes on this way. I turn on my computers and set up my screens this way You know, I think a lot of people are like that because it's the nature of generally if you're looking at markets You're up pretty early and time is often of the essence in the morning to to get ready and catch a lot of those opening UK European kind of moves But the point I want to say was that Actually, I think a lot of new traders often will do that prep work before the market open And if it is quiet, they'll think almost that they've done something wrong or they've missed something or You know, just just they don't feel comfortable with the fact that actually when they look at their morning prep And it's like there's nothing going on But one thing I always used to say to the junior analysts I used to kind of mentor in my previous role was that look if there's nothing going on Then there's nothing going on. Why are you talking? And so sometimes, you know, you've got to you've got to provide Value in the terms of that that sport communication that I was doing to clients And you know, if there is nothing to say, there's nothing to say And so from a news perspective, it's really not going to take me long at all to get you up to speed of what's going on There was a couple of comments out of power We can talk about a headline figure about COVID and then just looking ahead to the day of which the calendar is pretty much empty Anyway, and of course now we're into the Lunar New Year holiday in the Far East Which means that there's pretty much mass closures across Asia. So that as well lends its hands to generally quiet overnight trade So, yeah, just something to be aware of, you know, to have have the ability or confidence to Realize that there's not a lot going on and that's fine You know in terms of the market movement across asset classes this morning, it's equally quite quiet There's nothing really noteworthy I just had a quick scan before I came on of the charts from a technical perspective And there really isn't anything that jumps out to me. That's particularly interesting this morning either on that side of things So the Dixie is trading flat both major pairs reflect that basically unchanged US index futures flat to very minor positive T-notes unchanged And in the commodity space gold just tough moving up a touch But down only four bucks So not not a particularly busy session overnight as I said Asia out on the market holiday for Lunar New Year And then crude markets just stuck within a bit of a range at the moment after finding a bit of resistance around pivot In the overnight session training down 36 cents, but again that move It's nothing really So, yeah, very very quiet markets overall But one thing I did want to mention it was the move that we saw in equity markets yesterday I was actually caught up delivering To a couple of different business schools yesterday, so I wasn't able to follow markets completely But I did have that one little window where I saw I always have tweet deck and things And a squawk playing in my office at home And I could hear people kind of panicking about a selloff that was happening In the US equity market yesterday, and it wasn't so much tied to CPI, you know the move happened well after that and A couple of things I just wanted to point out when you see a move like that So I was kind of conveying it to the people in our community on our discord channel yesterday Which was it's often the case that you know when there is quite a quick And significant move particularly like we saw yesterday people will start going, you know, what's the headline? Why is it happening and I understand that a trader's got to have some sort of degree of clarity and visibility in order to Give them confidence and conviction of what decision to make But the point there is a couple things one I would look at the Composition of the candlesticks, you know if a headline has hit and it is significant then There should be an immediate Pronounced impact on a very short time frame. So a one-minute candlestick bar for example If it's more of a pent-up move over several minutes, then it's probably Less or so just a one-hit wonder kind of headline that's created that move and often it's more Again, the second thing look at the chart technically. Is there any significant levels in today's longer term that have broken? And then does that then in itself lead to some stops being run and then some momentum? Short money moves coming in fast money moves hitting the market just following that trend down And in thirdly yesterday, you know, think about the asset's Market positioning, you know, we've gone through a period of six consecutive updates In US equities the prior day we finished basically flat I don't think you could really call it snapping that streak. So let's call it seven days So a little bit coming off the top is not unusual And then again when you listen to the squawker you're looking at Twitter or headline feed and there's no news Then to me when I put all of those pieces of the puzzle together The final element is kind of what's the cross-asset class mix If this was genuinely a fundamental development, well, then T-notes yields should be moving gold should be moving the currency market should be moving. So an isolated Move like what we saw yesterday just to me lends its hand to mainly order flow And often then you get these kind of sell programs that might be a liquidation of position And unwind some profit taking on a larger scale from a larger fund given the run-up But we've had an equities to all-time highs and then at that point it's about well, okay how do you approach that and I guess there's a couple of different ways there's it's very hard then to get hold of The kind of downward move I think that probably lends its hand to the more proactive assertive type of character trader who likes that fast money move Overall, that's not definitely not for everyone Definitely in more of a retail capacity if you're swing trading things like that You should definitely stay out of that type of move Because it's obviously very rapid if you are going to short a market like that. You've literally got to be thinking Very short time frames. What's the first clearest nearest point of exit and manage that trade very proactively? I think try to pick the bottom Thinking that well This is a mispricing because technically if it's an unwinding of position the important thing here This goes on to the final point is that ultimately the trend is not broken This market is moving higher and that whole kind of buy the dip mentality probably remains true because all those supporting factors For buying the dip remain in place i.e. Stimulus is coming the Fed remain Accommodative that was ratified by again power last night. You've got earnings. We're very good. The virus is moving lower So equities should consolidate if not continue to grind up, but you know they move to 3900 s&p 4000 s&p 4500 in the s&p You know I do think we'll get there, but that doesn't not come without moments like yesterday so Trying to pick the exact bottom bottom I think is very difficult in terms of in the moment, but that doesn't mean then I think you should still have the Understanding of the fact that look I was looking on a 60 minute chart here yesterday to make this point to some of our new Traders yesterday and I had it marked up here. I just went back and this is only looking at the last Three weeks and I just wanted to show them episodes of when the market sold off What happened next market sells off? What happens next? Again copy paste repeat the market comes down The the spring back is pretty solid now Can that trend you know can buying the dip be broken what absolutely it can There needs to be then it does need to be a headline Fundamental reason for that and when there isn't and it's a flow Unwind of a trade or position like what we saw reportedly yesterday Well, then this markets just gonna move back up again so yeah, I think there's a couple of good lessons there from from that price activity yesterday because I Can almost sense a little bit of panic and particularly on Twitter people going a bit It's the crazy about that and I think it was quite unwarranted and really this is when I guess Experience in some way comes to the fore because I've seen this hundreds of times before But hopefully that explanation gives you a degree of how I would approach that type of thing But look it's very quick otherwise for the briefing as I said There's not really any charts that I think warrant me showing you from a technical perspective So let me just run you through a few headlines Jerome Powell spoke at the New York Economic Club one of those kind of key note speeches that it gives throughout the year and Powell said the US job market remains a long way from full recovery in corner both lawmakers and private sectors to support workers He said it would require more than supportive monetary policy to achieve and sustain maximum employment. So actually it's almost like Yellen and power are literally coordinating their speeches at the moment because obviously this is something very similar We heard from Janet Yellen just the other day the push for more for the politicians in Congress to do more basically So, yeah, no more change here expected or was expected from Powell That's the only what happened as far as Andrew Bailey in the mansion house speak again, nothing really noteworthy, but as we were Anticipating given the recent timing of the central bank decisions otherwise on a COVID front the daily number of new new Coronavirus cases in the US was under a hundred thousand for the third consecutive day yesterday First time that's happened since early November, but again, this is just reaffirmation of those trends cases hospitalizations deaths are Thankfully all on the decrease at the moment, but again underpinning the general talk now about the commodity Supercycle and the reflation trade that not only is that improving but the vaccines are obviously being administered And there's more supply of vaccines coming in the period ahead. I did see a really nice chart actually I'll share it with the guys in the community that was You know, there is a bit of a divergence at the moment as we discussed many times It's helped kind of cushion out performed sterling against the euro counterpart for example because of How effective the rollout program has been here in the UK But ultimately once we get to kind of mid back end of summer all of those would have converged Essentially as we go into the second half of the year and you're probably going to see more of a uniform Geographic recovery rather than at the moment is kind of a race to who's first to inoculate in that respect In terms of the calendar for today, it's very quiet. There's nothing coming out major UK You've got US jobless claims, which is probably the highlight at 130 How important are they first thing I would say not very important And I say that because if this is a look at the the jobless claims over the the week to week since kind of mid-November and Last week. We actually saw the third straight week of falling claims It's obviously a good thing and it was the lowest number since the last week of November So actually you've got to go back down to this 716 print we had then The number today is expected to come in at 757 so that would put us down here and continuation of that trend So improving situation and again This does lend its hand to that kind of Goldilocks mentality that we're seeing all these other improvements including the job situation very gradually the point is it's not Accelerating enough that pal or his colleagues needs to start thinking wow Actually, we've got to start thinking seriously about tweaking our guidance here Because the economy's really starting to heat up kind of ratified by the likes of the CPI that we had yesterday They have one getting a little bit run away with the whole kind of emergence of inflation Not quite here yet and and definitely as per the briefing yesterday and the notes that we issued I think the the greater surprise was being on the opposite side of that trade Which was what inflation being slightly lower when it's been kind of talked up of late So yeah, I mean that's that's pretty much it. I mean unless you're a fixed income trader There's a bit of supply coming out Italy in the US later But that is it so I'm going to talk any more than that because it's stay true to what I said and Wish you guys a good day. I'll see you tomorrow. Thanks very much