 The following is a presentation of TFNN, the Tiger Technician Hour with your host, Hazel Chapman. Call now. Call free at 1-877-927-6648. It's Thursday, December the 16th, Tiger Technicians Hour, I'm the host and my service here is the opening call daily newsletter, don't forget the Tiger dollar is going on right now, fabulous deals that you can get and take advantage of that, whoever you have, if you have subscribed to anyone, it's a great time to be able to increase for dollar value. So let's look at the market as we see it right now, dials up 130 at $36,054. What does that mean? It means just purely on a technical basis for my subscribers, they know that what I look at are a number of key technical tools. I don't need them when I don't need them and I need them when I need them, it's just as simple as that. I look at the doji candle of the 8th of November at $36,565 and that's before we didn't even know that we're turning to a doji candle, but we set up a chance to short right there. We had it just for a brief moment, we got stopped out, unfortunately, the Tiger stopped, got stopped out and then the dial plummeted to where the 200-period moving average. Because it hit the 200-period moving average using Chapman Wave techniques, I said let's go long at a certain point the very next day, so the lowest December the first and on the second, we did go long and there again, we just got stopped out, it was just a fabulous entry, but I mean the stop just a tad too tight, it just nicked our stop and then it was a very little chance to get back in because it closed huge up the next day and it kept going higher. Well, what I said was after we established that the Chapman Wave inside track repellent zone right there was pulling the market back and I'm going to jump around just a little bit just to give you a sense of my thinking here because this is a really important moment that the VIX index, the type of high that it made both in the data 35,000 32, it happened to be a PT which is a little unusual in the only tradable that we look at that doesn't really conform to the Chapman Wave methodology of these where you're established a bi-signal that can go to a bi-mode, this is an emotional response to the market and therefore it could have other things. This happened to go to a D right in 35,000 32,000 I think that was December 3rd, yep the 3rd and then the way it pulled back said to me if you're looking at the weekly charts and I discussed this on air the type of reversal that we had said that although this might not be the low it's certainly a low of sorts and therefore we want to trade it. So what I was looking for and this could be a futile but this is the way we looked at it is that if there was a sharp pullback we wanted to go long. Why? Because of the VIX index number one. Number two because of selectivity that said the Dow is now the strongest of the indices even though it's further away from the all-time high than the S&P or the Q's that was the thinking and the balance the Dow 30 it's not the Dow industrials anymore it's really the Dow 30 just had the perfect mix for this environment and therefore if there was a very sharp pullback and I had people saying what are you expecting 500 point pullback what is it? Anyway we got that pullback and on Tuesday we did go long we added to our long position from March the 23rd of last year where we've only taken a little bit off and we still kept the core position and what we're looking at here is that this is a tradeable that's all we're treating it as a trade at this particular time why because when you get a mixed market like this it takes a little while to be able to establish that one sector could be really weak while other sectors could be not necessarily very strong but could be leading the way up all right so that's the Dow and here it is above the shaft wave inside track repellent zone it has to now become a propellent zone meaning leg B it's really a gray B it should be a gray B but I'm actually going to put an up arrow to say if it fails what it fails is all nothing we can do about that but the strength of the Magde which is not great but very good the strength of the stochastic flat at 87 percent in the daily chart is fabulous and the fact that the nine period moved over the 14 period is is showing strength but I'm a little worried about the on balance volume not following up to the upside and that's just one little nervousness there so here we are up a hundred and twenty two it was much higher earlier on and we'll see what happens at the close today because it's going to be an important thing was that yesterday was that reflex action the response to the Fed which normally you would say surely the market should be down 150 points not up 300 points that's the Dow well that's because of the mix of this particular market okay so that's making it as simple as possible the other thing is that the weekly chart is improving it's not great in the in the in the S in the Dow hey because the S&P I'm taking a little time now because a lot of people are asking could you just go through your thinking what was your thinking well my thinking here is that the passions that have been repeating over and over for about 16 18 months it could be longer but I'm really taking 16 months certainly last 12 months where many stocks and key key indices have gone back to within pennies of previous highs with whether that was a month or two ago or even years ago and then they just stopped dead and they pull back and that says to me we've got a lot going on here and the fact that the many continuous contract S&P went to a new high today in leg C and I have to consider that to me I still have to consider it's a buy mode because it went to an all-time high it's in leg C maybe it's an E slash C I don't know yet but I'm calling it a C the magnet is not great but it's good the stochastic is not great at 75% is not over 80% but it's good and the 9-period moving average is above the 14 so even with the S&P pulling back sharp you're like this today and there I'm going to talk about what I think of the reasons I am saying that there's this potential for maybe a peak C very soon and there may be a little D and there's a double top within the highs that were made and we'll go back to the cash S&P and say oh type it in the right place please there we go S&P that's it so 47 43 somewhere in that range in the 47 40s maybe 51 52 so maybe that's what we're looking at and then we start to see more choppiness okay and look at the weekly chart you've had three highs within a period since October October November where you haven't gone very much above the 47 11 ish area so I'm just watching this very closely why am I making a big deal about that because if you look at the QQQ and if you look at some stocks in the QQQs that have been just decimated to downsize I mean look at this DocuSign DocuSign can't get out of its own way once it went above the gap high of that huge gap from the 220s down to the 150s and and now it's still stuck in the 149 area I'm gonna mention the stock that we try we've been trying to go long because it's a really good company but we lost out again today trying to buy into the unity software this is a very good company yep it's an IPO-ish type thing in a 210 round number high it drops all the way to the 130 level and I can't get out of its own way so this is a very selective market I'll be back in a moment and we'll continue are you looking for a way to consistently add winning trades to your portfolio Tom O'Brien is here to help Tom O'Brien has been successfully trading markets for over 30 years a frequent contributor to TD Ameritrade Network and CNBC Tom O'Brien founded TFNN over 20 years ago to help educate investors just like you Tom's Daily Market Newsletter market insights is published every morning when the markets open to give you the competitive informational edge you need to succeed these newsletters are packed full of Tom's advanced technical analysis and are geared to deliver comprehensive strategies for a successful portfolio get Tom O'Brien's newsletter market insights today and try all of our products and newsletters 30 days risk free with our money back guarantee at TFNN.com 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We're just going back to the QQQ just to say what I'm looking at here is that there was a chance with yesterday's turnaround that some of those former big high flyers like Roblox I'm adding it to the unity that we were just showing could rally going from 141.60 just a month or so ago down to the 1993 96 area announced in 97 it just can't get out of its own way. It's trying it's a red candle and that's the same to me put this together with the estimators I don't take too much time you have done this for the last week but look and I had a really good statement sent to me for one of our listeners who who talked about why why wouldn't you be buying the SMH is why are you looking to short them all the time when in fact if you because I think that the SMH is all kind of done for now just meaning that the upside is kept. Look when you go to AMAT applied materials it's stalling it's holding beautifully near the all-time highs but it's not using every single as it did before every opportunity to break to the upside 159 round number high on the 16th test what is to do goes to 158.34 and it can't break about it. So this is double top the action that remember I love to look I look at I've been looking at the market. Let's call it intraday let alone every day but intraday even when I'm in overseas wherever I am if I have the capacity to do it I am following the market every time I can every minute of the day right. There are patterns their characteristics that are telling you what the what the format is and the format is being for a long time that these exact double tops or very close to exact double tops are something to respect as resistance not to say oh my God now we're going down to no we're not saying that at all we're saying is the upside is starting to be kept look at Nvidia one of the all-time great companies and great semiconductor. It's running out of steam right here. Look at that tries to bounce goes to 311 today is trading out 294 346.47 with an all-time 319 round number low on the 22nd of November advanced micro devices fantastic company. I'm not going to do that now maybe tomorrow a technical fraud I'll show advanced micro devices that goes in the single digits into the triple digits and then back again for the last 30 or 40 years. It just does that all the time. Right now it's made a top of 164.46 pulling back sharply today. I'm saying this is such a selective one look for subscribers. They know we have we're out of today's action. We have three stocks that are either a yearly high or all time highs. You've got to be very selective here and try to stay with selectivity because regardless of what the emotional news is that's the fix index. If your stocks are holding well it's telling you that it's ignoring all the noise and that's what you want. It doesn't say it's a guarantee. It just says good you're in the right area for now that can change but stay in the right area. So we have another stock. So we lost about 2% on one this morning and we're gaining 2% on one that is low price because for my subscribers I like to mix I can I we can go. We have a stock that we bought at 484 and today is trading at 660 61. We have a stock we bought this morning and the day is young. Anything can happen at $9 and 16 cents as a 16 or 18 cents and it's trading at $9 and 34 cents right now. And it's in an area that it's just like a scream of stock. It's in a niche area that has the chance. I don't know if it'll do it but it just has a chance to to to give us a nice gain and maybe even have part of the position stay for longer term because we're going to we've already said take off a little bit if such and such happens. So that's the way you got to look at the market be very selective and also at the same time be very discriminating in your choices. But at the same time if you have a tight stop you could always get back in. That's what we did with the Dow. We had a tight stop because stopped out the day after the low this low we were already we still long from March of 23 March 23 2020. But this one we got a new position. Will that one work. I don't know but we did all the homework. So now let's go to the U.S. aspect. I just want to use quickly because we were callers waiting. So TLT. Look at this. The TLT is saying yields are stuck in a range at this particular point at 149 36 the Lehman 20 a Jersey bond fund is saying you have a chance of a lower case H pattern so that the TLT could start to pull back. If it pulls back yields will go higher. Let's go to our first call. We've got Mark in Ford Collins. Mark how are you. Good battle. How are you doing. Well thank you. I want to ask you about a couple of stocks. Let's start with MJ. So MJ's alternate harvest. This is the cannabis ETF sector. I bought it yesterday when it tested the left side low right at 1098. And I'm wondering what you think. So OK. That's the only way you can do this. And in this particular point I'm going to use a term that I don't actually like to use as a serious technical term in market action. But I'm going to say that's really the only way you can play this. And I have to use the word play because in a way you have to treat it almost as a game because you don't know when the cannabis sector where the the let's just say that legalize. Let's just say that they the cash part of it becomes at least it becomes legitimate so that they can start to have you know credit cards whatever it is that they need to use at this point. It's that's very difficult on the federal level. So that as I understand it and all I can say is that that's just one component. The other component is that from what I understand people have told me that they that in a sense what I've been talking about has been happening in other places and what I'm saying is just here in Newton Massachusetts we've already got three of which two are within a mile of one another. These are centers where you can buy. I think this is part medical and part recreational. And I heard of someone in Northampton Eastampton Massachusetts where on one block they've got two. I mean so they cannibalizing themselves for the cannabis so I to me there's a bunch of things not only that from what I understand to be able to compete with the illegal side of it it's really tough. So all I can say is that at some point as a long-term buy and hold you might have to watch 50 percent 60 decline but at some point the MJ will just kick in and it'll scream to the upside. When that is I don't know but it'll be when barriers are starting to be acknowledged as helping the profits and profits is what it's all about and customer numbers. So all I can say is that it's you got a you got a lovely entry just off the low and now you have to watch it today's action and look it's worth talking about. If you want to hold on I'd like to just finish this story now because a lot of people will ask me about this. So Mark can you hold on? Sure. Okay we'll be back with Mark we're talking about the MJ the cannabis sector and the DAO is now up 180. 100 right? 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Don't miss out on this incredible new piece of software. Get your copy of The Art of Timing the Trade Charts today by visiting TFNN.com. For more information, just click the Think or Swim banner on the front page of TFNN.com. Hi folks, we're back and this is the title of the initiative that's out on with Mark. Mark's asked about the MJ, which is the Alternate Harvest, and I've been discussing it in kind of fundamental terms, not just technical terms, and yet I don't really understand the fundamentals too much. While we were on break, I was thinking, you know, Tommy Jr. does such a fabulous job of trying to put the technicals together with fundamentals on so many areas. I think I'm going to offer him a question. He doesn't have to take it up if he's listening or if someone tells him about it. But I would like Tommy Jr. to do a little bit of work on both the technicals and the fundamentals of the MJ area, of this cannabis sector, because I think you'll be able to put it together so that we can get a better understanding of what's involved, what would be needed. But I can just tell you this, Mark, you've got a really good entrance. This is a famous last word. I don't see it at this particular point, breaking the 10s in the near term. I think it's going to try to establish at least a base to rally. But I do suspect there's a chance that it gets stuck in a rectangle formation with one more test of the downside. So I'm thinking that maybe over the period of the rest of December, it's trying to form a base and maybe early in January, if for the first time we actually see it holding a rally in the weekly chart, which is just, it cannot do, it just fails to hold above the 14 period moving average. So you entry right now, this is the one time I'm going to say to you normally, I say, make it a fairly tight stop. I'm going to say, you know, this might be worthwhile giving it a little, at least part of it. You can give a little bit more of a wider stop because I think fund managers are going to be looking at sectors that have just been beaten down horribly and that maybe have a chance to at least have a countertrend rally for four to six weeks. Maybe this fits the category. We won't know. Make it real, real clear as far as I'm concerned, a close below yesterday's low says, all right, once again, you can wait a little bit for something to happen. That's a 10.89. But at the same time, with your entry, I would, what was your entry going 10.98? You know, you got just about the exact low. I probably this time, I'd give it a little bit of room at least some part of that. Why? Because I think the downside on percentage, yeah, point is 10%. But on the upside, I think there's a chance that it can be more sustained now to the upside. Can it get a point and a half to the upside? So you've got a nice one to one and 1.5 ratio. I think there's a chance. And that's all we can say. So when I say play, I mean, in this case, you have to treat it almost like a casino because there is no news here to actually say, wow, this is a change of trend. You want to see the price move and then news follows. I hope that helps you. Yeah, do you have time for one more sin stock? Oh, give it to me. DKNG. UKNG. DraftKings. Oh, okay, DKNG. There we go. Yeah, I bought it when it had the left side low here at 2750 and wondering it was actually better this morning. So this is a little different in that this one, they all have the same patterns. I mean, just sinking ships. These are just looking terrible. But at the same time, this is the one that, wow, it's almost like MJ, like the cannabis sector, it needs to have some trigger that is so that fundamentalists can actually look at it and say, ah, now I've got a good reason for owning DraftKings. At this particular point, it just hasn't taken any sign of strength and held. So you're in, in this particular instance, I wouldn't do more than, if I don't know what your stop is, but definitely in this case, a close below 2667. Wow, that's a point. Okay, that's not bad. A close below that says, you know what, yes, you might have to pay up for it. I'd rather pay up for it as it making higher highs and higher lows than lower highs and lower lows. So it's almost the same thing. But you have picked the two, you have picked the two stocks that you picked them right at the lows and they have had a little bit of a bounce. So at this point, it's money management, that's all I can say. You need to see DraftKings trading, not once, but out of three days, it has to hit 2885 to 2930 and hold that. And then it says, oh, now it's got a little bit more of an upturn. Good luck. Thank you. Thank you for calling. So folks, let me do this. I had a question about Baba. I haven't finished my overview. Baba, this is all the same. The stocks that have been hammered look the same. And when they have the big V-shaped move, you're going to say, why wasn't I buying it in the whatever it is? But until then, it is, I mean, it's painful. You get in and then you stopped out getting this. So I'm just saying at this particular point, I would look at Baba and I'm going to say to the Chinese Amazon, Alibaba, I would just, I don't see anything in the Chinese sector because of the risk. I do see some stocks that are really, they're fabulous stocks. But I just think that the risk is a little bit too, you've got enough risk here in the American market. Why would you want to add the Chinese market? So the question was, Baba, and I just say, I would, I avoid it. But if you are long at 197, 190.77 right now, wow, I would not want to see it closed below. In fact, I would say, why don't you get out at least a two thirds of your position? And if it starts to rally, I'd rather be buying higher highs and higher lows than lower highs and low lows. Just be real careful. Next question. MA, look at this. Right. I spoke about MasterCard being right on the 200 feet moving average. It's starting to improve. So I had the question about MA, would I look at it? That was back on Friday. That was Friday. So we're not too far from where we were on Friday. It's at 348. I'm going to make this suggestion. It isn't what I would ideally want to do in a stock that's trading at 348. I don't want to go in and out of stock like that. I want a commitment there. I don't mind going into lower price stocks in the hundreds or low hundreds or even single digits and trying. But in this particular case, I put my foot in the door, I would start the position at 348.86 knowing that it's in a trading band right now with resistance at the 200-period moving average of 349.50. It had a high to 351.93. It's pulling back three points from that. But it's not holding bad. It's holding okay. So start a position. And we might have to wait until Monday to say, where do we add to the position? Or have we been stopped out? In this particular instance, because you're just starting a nibble, not a nibble, maybe a little bit more than a nibble. But if you were going to start a position, this is like a half or even a third of that position. Right? So it's just an initiation. And let's do that at 348.88. And what I would say to you is we have to see, and I have to give you at least in this particular instance, a six or 2% stop just because it initiates at six points. So let's look and see what the 342 level is like. That's where the nine-period moving average is. And it's green. The magnet is good. Stochastic is good at 87%. I see no reason why just a started position couldn't be made right here. And with a fairly tight stop, because if it holds nicely through Monday, that's given us enough time from Fed speak into three days or two and a half, three and a half days or two and a half days of action. And then we'll see what happens. So yes, I'm saying start your position. And if you are in it, there's nothing much to do. I would add at this particular point, but this is follow MA obstacle. I'll be back in a moment and we're looking at up to 208 points. And now I will talk about what I think why schoolbacks are big tests for the blue. Are you in the market for buying or selling real estate in the Bay Area, including the surrounding St. Petersburg, Tampa and Clearwater markets? 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And this was a test for me for this unity to say, because if unity software gained creating software from what I understand from the CEO when he was interviewed, geez, they are in everything. That software is used in many, many things. That should have had a nice push to the upside. It could still do that. I'm just keeping tight stops here. I feel that we can make it up with other positions that we have quite easily if I keep the stop tight. Yeah, I could have had it once and just held it and said, let's have this big stop or no stop at all. I can't do that. I'm sorry, not in a market like this. So what I'm looking at is the selectivity is really important when you're talking about what was yesterday, housing stock, I find that all the time. So toll brothers, look, housing stock, toll brothers makes a 75, 61, all time high just four days ago. And it says to me, it's like the semiconductors. I think these, the sector right now is getting overboard. Hovnanian, all time high, 133.99, not an all time high, but a recent high peak F on the 13th pulls back sharply. What was the toll brothers, Hovnanian, Beezer, and what's the other that I'm missing that I know so well? A, B, C, D, but a D, no E. Come on, there's somebody tell me what the other homes are. Oh man, I can just picture it right now except I can't get in there. I'll get in a moment. All right. But I'm looking at this and I'm saying, you know what? So you get a little bit of a pullback in a sector. Look at those home, the Philadelphia housing sector. No, it wasn't Horton. It was not Paltier either. Oh, why am I forgetting it? One of the main ones, 39.41, peak G snatch, C in the Humboldt in the housing sector. So I think here again, we could be looking at just a digestive phase. Dell, no, Dell, we have no, no, no. When I think of it, I'll say, oh, it was so obvious. And Simon Properties, this is SPG. That's not the one, but that's in the, look, made at 171. This is what I was talking about. Look, 171.01 high, back around November the 8th, pulls back and then what does it do? It does a retest weeks later at 171.12. So the characteristic of these double tops is something that you've got to be thinking of. And there's, there's that chance as well, that we managed somehow to have the language push at least back towards the highs. I'm going to put housing, housing stocks. I'll just put a question mark right there. Something will pop up. Humboldt, some of the housing stocks, housing stocks. Just not showing up. Not there, not there. Oh, Lenard. Was it Lenard? Yeah, I think Lenard. Lenard. Yep, there it is. Lenard, 117.54 all-time high on the 13th of December at peak F in the chapter of methodology, a leg E in the weekly and pulling back. And that's what I'm saying. Be very selective now. And look at the, look at GIS. This is the new all-time high, general food, general mills. I mean, this is what I'm saying, that there's a rotation going on, a bifurcation. It's not a bifurcation. It's a quad, try quad, quad, quad for catered market right now. And the, the, this is what I was saying, that the, the whole food area is usually called the safety area. In other words, a defensive area, not defense like Raytheon. Defensive, because when markets start to pull back, normally you'd see that the defensive stocks start to do very well. Sometimes even the, the dividend stocks start to do well as it becomes more selective. This is so ironic. We made all, making all-time highs. The S&P futures made an all-time high today. And general mills is making an all-time high. What a market we've got. So as I'm looking at this, what I'm saying to you is be very selective. Don't be afraid. If you're in the wrong area, just put in your stop and get taken and raise cash. This is a good time to be raising cash, be very selective. All right, cut that out the way. Now, the other thing I want you to talk about is, so I did that, I did that, did that. The FXI was a question. The FXI goes into the category of why mess around with China. This is the big cap. China is making lows and lows and lows. I heard someone say, oh, oh, there was a technical analyst who said that China could come on strong now. I, you know, I don't see it. I don't think until we start to show strength, well, China shows strength. It's the other way around. They're needing us more than ever before. And they have their own problems. I mean, that's the way it is. So I did that, did that. Question now, you know, NEE in the Tiger. Wow, what, you know, we've got these wonderful resources, folks. We've got the Tiger, we've got the Den. Just fantastic position players and traders. We've got the Tiger YouTube. Yes, one. Hi, Basel, could you please go over NEE? What do you mean go over NEE? There's nothing to go over. It's making it all the time high. As we speak, next era energy Inc. I wonder if they do alternative energy. Anyway, all the time high, leg C in the monthly, leg D in the weekly. And I didn't have time to do it. I can just do it visually. A, B, C, D, B, D there. Then it goes A, B, C, D, EF. It's either an F or a brand new B. But the technicals are fabulous. The magnet is good. Stochastic good. Stochastic is at 85% on balance volume. It's pulled back a little bit after being overboard. I would say that your key support is at the 80. I'm talking bigger term now, not just daily, but looking at the weekly is between 88 and 86. Major support there. And if you're along, all I would say is if you have a question and you just made the statement, but if the question was, could you do an analysis on it and you're along, then I'm saying, you know what, if you ask the question, it means you're just a little bit nervous. Why didn't you take your nervous percentage? Maybe it's 2%, 3% for it. And just take a little bit off. You've got an all time high. Treat yourself to the pleasure of being rewarded and take a little bit off. It's acting fantastically. But if you ask the question, it means you've got a little nervousness there. So ease your nervousness by taking a tad off. And you know what? It'll be your pleasure. If at 91.96, you take a little bit off and in three days time is trading at 96 instead of saying, oh my God, I see. Hey, that's nice. That's great. The amount I've got left is more than making up for the little bit that I needed to ease my nervousness. So let me go through this again. I have to slow down because I've had a bunch of questions here. Could you look? So any looking at Mj, this is the kind of path you want to see. And then it has to hold the game because this has done it before. Sharpening your skills as an investor is like getting better at playing a musical instrument. You have to practice, sure, but you also need excellent instruction from experts. 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It's up very nicely and you're talking about tomorrow's options exploration and I'm not sure we're going to have an up day in the Dow tomorrow, not at this particular point. I think it might be a consolidation and they can do anything they want. So, I'm just going to say take about two-thirds off and then the other right split into two parts because I know you buy quite a lot. I would say that if it pulls back at 362 points, if it goes under 361.75, take another little bit off, but at least keep a little bit for the end of the day into tomorrow. You might lose it all, but that's the way I would play this because there could be sudden spikes because the shorts got squeezed yesterday but there was new buying. The new buying came in and I suspect the new buying did what a lot of people would have wanted to do and bought like the roadblocks. All those stocks that were just hammered that were favorites and now they are failing. So, this is the next and now they're going to go into the other stocks that are holding well. So, there could be another burst maybe later today early tomorrow and then some weakness. So, try to keep a little bit into the clothes maybe later maybe three o'clock tomorrow, but at least start taking off a little bit right now. You've got a fabulous game. So, folks, I'm going to hand you over to Larry for the event though. You're going to have Finkle Swamp, you have Steve Rhodes, Dave White, Tom McFly and Fabulous Broke, and don't forget Tiger Dollars. You can go to the front page of TFN and check out both of my daily newsletters. See you tomorrow. Have a good day.