 Good morning. Today, millions of Americans can take heart. Unemployment has finally started down. This dip in unemployment coming just after the word of higher retail sales, higher auto sales, and there's one more sign that America is on the mend. Confidence is returning and with reason. And while we may see some ups and downs on the way to recovery, we're on the move now, and that's our best hope for more productive, lasting jobs. According to our own very cautious forecast, economic recovery will create more than four and a half million new jobs by the end of 1984. If the Congress cooperates, if it holds the line on spending, we can enjoy strong, sustained growth without triggering a return to the double-digit inflation and soaring interest rates that caused unemployment to rise and nearly destroyed our economy. Chris? Mr. President, Labor Department officials point out that there was a big seasonal adjustment in January, and also, of course, the military was included in the employment figures for the first time in January. Don't both of those factors exaggerate the improvement in the January unemployment? No, because, Chris, first of all, the figures that they give are the seasonally adjusted. Most of the time, I've always, I've questioned and said not to explain that to me, because most of the time, the unadjusted figures show more people employed, but they've used this. But with regard to the military, they gave two sets of figures. They have just started to include the military as employed, those serving in the United States only. This is only simple justice, because every time someone left the service and didn't have a job, they automatically counted them as unemployed. But they are using two sets of figures. If you include the military, that set of figures is unemployment was only 10.7 and it went down to 10.2 instead of 10.4, so they're relatively the same. If I may follow up, sir, given the good news about unemployment in January, will you still consider the acceleration of government construction projects as some kind of jobs program? Well, we're looking at that and have been looking at that. That is already, those are things that are in the budget, in which various agencies and departments and the Veterans Administration have got things that need doing. And what we're looking at is to see if we can accelerate the start of those and move them up, and it wouldn't make any budget change. Mr. President, would you look with favor on accelerating some of those construction projects, even if it meant increasing the budget perhaps by okaying construction projects that were scheduled to take place in later years? Well, we might look at them, but we would look at them always with the idea that our greatest goal must be to hold this line on deficits in order to reassure the money markets out there that we do intend to hold the line and that they can look forward to continued recovery. Anne? One thing concerning, you said unemployment has finally started down. Does that mean that you think over, say, the next two years, unemployment won't come back up, touching the 11 percent mark? Do you think this is a trend downward or just a dip? I think it is a trend. I do think this. If you look at past recessions, you'll see that there's been a volatility to the unemployment figures. Now, that doesn't mean that they come up higher than the highest point. But, for example, there may be a month where it might level off or come up, say, a little above the 10-4. I don't think that you will see it come up above the high mark of 10-8. Now, you, and then I'll get you... Mr. President, early this week in St. Louis, you said quite emphatically that there would be no give on the third year of the tax cut and on indexation the following year. Yet, your spokesman, including the Treasury Secretary, have been hinting in public otherwise that there might be some give. Which is it going to be? I think the worst thing in the world we could do, and particularly with recovery started now, is to do anything that would smack of a tax increase as those wouldn't take away those two parts of the economic program. And I just feel very determined about that. Why have your spokesmen been hinting otherwise? Well, I haven't heard exactly the remarks, and since I've come back, we haven't had a chance for any conversations about that. Maybe they're trying to indicate what I did in the State of the Union address that there is a certain flexibility with regard to wanting to have a bipartisan program here to go forward together as we did in the Social Security program. Bill? Mr. President, with the consensus now on both sides of the aisle, up on Capitol Hill, will you commit to some kind of jobs program and will you commit to one that contains what your own people are calling humanitarian aid for the unemployed? Well, let me point something out that they seem to be ignoring. First of all, the basic employment and training program, the Act of 1983, is providing $5 billion job training and so forth for almost or about 3 million Americans. That's in the fiscal 83 year, but there is already $93 billion in the 84 budget for that very fact, for the unemployed, the needy and so forth. So we've got quite a big budget and amount in this and programs and ideas aimed at job training to meet this structural problem because there are many unemployed people who will not be going back to the same jobs they had, those jobs will no longer exist. And we're prepared to do something about that. Sir, if I may follow up, there's a great deal of pressure from both Republicans and Democrats to do something visible and to do it soon beyond what's already in your budget proposal. Will you? Well, they were talking about that before they'd seen what was in the budget proposal. I had an argument the other day with someone who was talking about the very things that I was finally able when I got a word in to say it's in the budget already. And we're certainly going to listen to what is suggested in relation to what is already proposed and, as I say, we want to go forward in a bipartisan manner. Mr. President, on humanitarian aid, do you intend to provide any help at all for those people who have no food or not enough of it and those people who have no homes? We certainly are doing everything that we can in that regard and there are programs that have been in place over the years for that very problem. Those people are automatically eligible for the programs that are in place. And we intend to continue that. No. Mr. President, could you give us your own reaction to the half-dozen incidents that have occurred between our Marines and the Israelis in Lebanon and could you also respond to this growing feeling that the Marines are in there for a longer stay than we initially thought? Some people are now talking about the possibility that the Marines may be there for another year. I can't set any time limit on it. We're trying to expedite the departure from Lebanon of all the foreign forces in there. These incidents are the type of thing that can happen and the best answer to them is for the Israelis, the Syrians, and what remnants of the PLO are there are to go back beyond their own borders. The multinational forces were put in there at the request of the Lebanese government while they tried to establish stability in their own country and this is evidence of it. The fact that where the multinational forces are carrying out their purpose, these repeated efforts to go through their lines and do what has been agreed that they will not do, and I think our forces are behaving very well. Sam? Sir, I'd like to follow up on that. Did the Marine Captain do the right thing? Were the Israelis trying to penetrate a place where they should not have? And I guess more importantly, do we now have assurances from Israel that it won't happen again? We do have such assurances and I must say that, yes, the same unit and the same commander had tried three times at this same point and in my view the Marine officer did the only thing that he could do. Mr. President, can you tell us with the trucking strike having increased violence, whether you agree with Senator McClure, who now wants to repeal the usur fees that would go into effect in 84 and 85 that have upset the independent truckers? Would you support that or would you let Congress repeal those usur fees? I have to say that to allow a very tiny percentage of the truckers, the trucking union is opposed to what they're doing. About 80% of the independent truckers are not observing this strike. Some of them have been intimidated and frightened off the road and you can understand that there's been violence that's taken place but to let a small percentage of any group of people in our country by the use of murder and violence of the kind that they've used change the laws of this country would be the worst precedent that we could set. How could there be any law and order from then on? No, I have authorized the Justice Department to have the FBI cooperate with local authorities in trying to put an end to this violence but we have always had a policy with regard to the user fee concept which governs most of our transportation gasoline taxes and so forth that there has been a proportionately higher tax for the trucks, commercial trucks based on the very fact that they not only make a greater use in a commercial use than does the passenger automobile they also represent a greater wear and tear on the highways. Now the taxes originally proposed were sizably reduced before the bill was passed and these taxes over and above the fuel tax are being phased in as you pointed out over the next couple of years and actually I think that it is proportionately fair that those taxes be paid and like any other business tax they have the opportunity to pass them on to the customer which is what happens with business taxes a business can't pay taxes it's a cost of production but the worst thing in the world as I say that we could do would be to let any group of citizens say that they could change the laws of this country by committing murder. Mr. President, you spoke of a spending freeze in your State of the Union message now that Congress has had a chance to go over the budget that Democrats are saying it isn't so much a freeze that defense spending goes up social spending comes down and some services such as legal services would be abolished altogether. I said and made it plain the overall total budget number was freed within that, yes there are some things that are increased given better higher priorities there are some things given lower priorities but I believe that we have preserved the safety net as we've always said we would and I think that is about time since there have been in spite of all the talk and the term budget cuts there have been no budget cuts each year spending has gone up and what we have cut are the projected budgets that were left for the next five years by the previous administration and incidentally with regard to defense going up might be well to point out that the increase in defense spending we have more than cut in half the increase over the projected Carter defense budget much more than half has been cut and the increase since we've been here has only been about three billion dollars a year over what he himself had proposed then and he was down in his spending he was down to five percent of gross national product for defense spending in the 1960s defense spending was ten percent of gross national product it was nine percent or eight percent in the 1970s and by 1979 it brought it down to five percent and we are holding it to seven percent seven percent you were getting laughs happy birthday to you happy birthday Mr. President happy birthday to you how old are you? and two days early aren't they coming fast enough moving it up? make a wish you should you should know what I'm wishing it's easy enough to guess sir it's easy enough to guess now see you don't have to share that little one look what's there it's got football bladders in it blown up no I said the cake well it says I love you and it says what more can I say happy birthday and then it says guess who but she already just gave it away well thank you very much you want to finish your statement I think this ends the question I have to make a wish again a wish any wish you could tell us Mr. President you can't tell what you wish because then you'll come true you're up to your first piece I have to eat your piece I'll spoil my lunch I'd have cut a smaller if I'd have known that Mrs. Reagan any resolutions you want in the make on his birthday anything you want to do differently I think he's doing just fine well maybe this would be a good time for you to tell him whether you think oh no you're not getting too old to run again are you sir you're not getting too old to run again are you sir how would you like a piece of cake Sam I don't know what kind is it did you bake it yourself as a matter of fact Sam since she cut that one smaller here take mine I'll trade no no no no that's bad luck do you feel up to six more years Mr. President I have learned not to argue with her superstitions it gives Sam and Chris Chris how about the piece of cake for you maybe if I ask a question I can hear you you're right if you understand we won't sell out the piece of cake no deals oh you've sold out for less than that if I had to come back I would not deal with it I assume that since the cake came in came in everything's off the record well you're still in the cake you won't tell see the white crew but as far as we know they're still are I thought you were giving them to me well how am I going to do this do you have any observations on your birthday Mr. President any thoughts about the future it's a softball question it is it's just the 31st anniversary of my 39th birthday and I'm enjoying every one of them and I think that it's fine when you consider the alternative that's worse kind of cake is that I don't know how are you going to get everybody served that there what would I like you can tell us we'll never tell anybody we'll never tell anybody that's what I'd like is a trip to the ranch that's what you're asking what would I like no I could like a lot I could wish for nothing but I can't tell you what I wish for because they won't come through Nancy Toomey wouldn't you've seen her about the cake I don't know how I'm going to get back oh lord let him let him oh Bernie that was bad Bernie was that bad Bernie maybe okay take two I've got another speech to make so you can have that bye thank you very much what were you talking about up here corporate income any special thoughts about the next year sir yes I think it's going to be very much better it's already starting and I have confirmation from Alice Rivlin with the CBO thank you say it's delicious don't leave without it