 So I'm gonna give a warning right now if you are not in the mood for some negative news or to discuss some potential Negative news moving forward with Six Flags. Do not watch this video This video is gonna be pretty much talking about All the negative things that could be happening to Six Flags moving forward. It is gonna be a very negative themed Video and I apologize for that, but I'm going off of some recent news out of some investors I'm gonna go off of some trends. I'm hearing and rumors I'm hearing which is which leads me to say everything in this video is not for sure everything in this video is mere speculation and Just analyzing rumors and stuff like that So please take everything in this video with a grain of salt until Six Flags themselves comes out and says anything Or you hear anything from an actual media outlet. This is just me reacting to actual news I read online and news that I've read from investors and looking at the amount of money that Six Flags is owing And looking forward at the little amount of money that Six Flags is gonna make during the 2020 season All right, so that brings me into the actual concept of the video Will Six Flags go bankrupt by 2024 and my honest opinion is it is looking very likely that Six Flags will go bankrupt By 2024 and I'm going to explain why so there was a recent article on www.fool.com I strongly suggest you go look it up. It's got a lot of information um pertaining to why Six Flags is in a A really awkward and uncomfortable position No matter the outlook that the new CEO has they're in a really tough situation And the moves they've been making make a lot more sense now after reading this article I've been able to piece together a lot of what's happened in the recent times with that whole potential merger Um and other actions the parks the chain story has taken so i'm extremely interested in to see how the Next couple years play out. It's almost like a reality tv show and i'm strongly invested in it Anyways, let's get on. I'm trying to make this video under 10 minutes. Okay So Six Flags looks set to continue underperforming The market that the u.s. Market is seeing it's rapidly growing So Six Flags is looking to continue underperforming in the u.s. Market They keep updating their guidelines and now with mandated lockdowns in the states in 2020 It looks like Six Flags parks may not even open until july we have been saying that on this channel for quite some time But that's okay Which also gives them that whole factor of a deteriorating Income or cash flow is what they like to call it So Six Flags is going to have little to none cash flow In the 2020 season and they have about a hundred million dollars in interest That they have to pay yearly on the loans that are due in 2024 so if you are estimating like this article is saying, you know, they're putting a price tag or a Revenue thing of around 150 million dollars and you owe a hundred million dollars in interest and then you have all those other expenses that come into play of Running a theme park or investing in the theme parks It leads you to believe or one to assume. What are the attractions going to be for 2021 or 2022? You have 50 million dollars left over to spend you're going to end up with hardly anything um to spend on future attractions and additions and then Are you setting yourself up for success when those debts mature in 2024? No So again, it's a really valid argument or a concept to look at as to the future of Six Flags How are they going to survive past this and I know a lot of people don't like to discuss this Um, but it's something that you have to discuss So Six Flags had 97.4 million dollars in revenue from sponsorships in 2019 This I already discussed in a previous video this I knew which is down from a hundred and point one million in revenue from sponsorships in 2018 Uh, which represents seven percent of Six Flags is revenue That being said if it continues to fall, obviously they're losing a major portion of their revenue Moving forward. They had a lackluster fourth quarter Um, which we knew as well from stockholders. That's part of the reason why the stock market for Six Flags crashed before the That shall not be named started in 2020 and quarter revenue quarterly revenue fell um year over year from 269.5 million to 261 million This three percent decline in attendance uh was partially due to the decline in revenue Um, I'm trying to read off like a script as you can tell this is why I don't read scripts Trying to see if there's anything else that's important to you guys that you don't know yet um, so this is one that I really like so Six Flags has an over Over optimistic guidance. So the new co is definitely super optimistic and that is something I actually do really like about him He's super optimistic. He's got a really good game plan But unfortunately you have to ask your quite that question Is it too late to save Six Flags and potentially it just might be the wrong time You have four years three years Left to before your debts to mature Um, you have one out of those three to four years that is now in the garbage Um, for anyone that doesn't know they're sending out surveys asking if people would like a one free additional year on top of their Memberships if they continue to pay for their memberships, which is insane That's setting yourself up for failure Like you're really going to go give a bunch of people a free year membership setting 2021 up for failure again as well With hardly any revenue like it just doesn't seem smart to me The business practices that Six Flags is implementing like Thank goodness cedar fair had a 40 increase in season past sales before all this happened because Now their pockets are lying somewhat. We know cedar fair has a lot of money put aside Why doesn't Six Flags have a savings account? Ultimately, why don't they have money set aside for a rainy day? Those are questions I would like to ask and maybe moving forward if they don't Fail, maybe they should set money aside. Um So Six Flags hopes it can reopen its parks in april But as the pandemic spreads across the u.s These lockdowns could last far longer than management is projecting making Six Flags guidance impossible to meet according to an analyst At oppenheimer Six Flags parks will probably be closed until the beginning of july The firm believes the company's 2020 adjusted EBITDA will fall to just 150 million dollars crazy high debt levels a cause for concern This is my favorite part of the article Six Flags heavily leveraged business model makes it Deteriorating cash flow, especially troubling the company reported 2.3 billion in long-term debt at the end of 2019 As well as around 113 million in interest expenses for the year a dramatic fall in 2020 EBITDA will make it harder for the company to comfortably meet its debt obligations while also funding the planned capital Expedentures and a quarterly dividend that will pay out 85 million this year at 25 cents per share with no significant debt Maturities until around 2024 Six Flags is unlikely to go bankrupt right now But its strained cash flow situation may lead to another dividend cut or reduced capital Expensures, which will suppress future growth overall Six Flags will have a hard time coming out of the That shall not be named pandemic unscathed. So That's where it leads to a lot of those questions. Will Six Flags survive what's going on in the world right now? what are the investments for the coming year is going to look like if they owe their stockholders about 85 million dollars their interest rates for their loans are 113 million dollars, but they're only making 150 million dollars in EBITDA How are they gonna? How are they gonna manage moving forward? It's gonna be there's gonna be a lot of cuts The investments are gonna get really really awkward if there isn't even gonna be any which also leads to little growth They're now offering free memberships for 2021 for anyone that keeps their membership going or we think they're gonna offer that story It'll be really interesting to see what Six Flags does. I'm curious to hear from you guys What do you guys think Six Flags needs to do to save themselves? Um From a possible bankruptcy in 2024. Do you think they can survive? Do you have a lot of trust and faith in this new co personally? I do I really like this new co if for anyone that knows I went from thinking Six Flags was a doom company to the new Co kind of really impressing me and I was like, oh things are gonna go really well Actually, I really liked this guy and now when this article was presented to me these are questions I wasn't even looking at which is weird for me is What are they gonna do like they're gonna no one's gonna be making money in 2020 regardless Cedar fair is not gonna be making money. Disney is not gonna be making money Six Flags ain't gonna be making money. A lot of enthusiasts think the minute these gates open They're gonna be generating income. No, a lot of people still aren't gonna go to theme parks Um, the minute this comes down. They're still gonna be a little afraid. It's gonna take till 2021 I think for parks to start generating income Anyways, this is the question to want you guys to ask yourself Do you think Six Flags is gonna go bankrupt in 2024 comment down below what you think? Don't forget to hit that like button subscribe if you haven't and share this video for others to enjoy Thanks so much for watching guys. Sorry it ended up being 10 minutes. There was just a lot to discuss anyways Stay safe. Stay clean. Stay distanced. Have a good one guys. Bye