 In honor of branding a doula who is on vacation for this week and not on the podcast It is my obligation to say begin this podcast with a good old Morikawa Bunga Colin Morikawa a major champion once again And of course Morikawa was Brandon's win pick on the podcast for it last week So potentially not an actual vacation and more so just victory lapping around his backyard I assume with his cats and toes so Brandon either way not here for this week to celebrate the Morikawa victory But still plenty to discuss for the 3m open Dustin Johnson the massive betting favorite and the highest salary guy and fan will for this week But also Don't think it's a flawless profile So break that down break down the thoughts on DJ how to handle him Who else the target and more to get you set for this week's event welcome on into the heat check fantasy podcast powered by? Number fire that's right here on the fan to a podcast network in number fire calm My name is Jim saw this I am a senior writer and analyst for number fire calm here to break down the 3m open May PGA DFS perspective and get you said for this week's event Of course with no Brandon for this week. There is no PGA Q&A this week We'll be back next week. We break it down his thoughts on that event So we will be talking MOB DFS still at 4 p.m. Today So make sure you check out the number fire slash fan duel YouTube twitch Facebook and Twitter pages But also hit subscribe on the number fire daily fantasy podcast feed to get each podcast as it goes up The 3m open is at TPC Twin Cities. So Brandon appropriately leaves me This week so I could talk about my motherland the the great state of Minnesota. It's a bit blame I'm from the southern part of the state. So not a lot of familiarity there But either way we can always slobber over the motherland here TPC twin cities 7,000 431 yards and is a par 71 There are 156 golfers in the field for this week the top 65 plus ties will make the cut after the first two rounds Which means finding cut makers will be tough this week We do need to prioritize that for sure to get a six out of six lineup This is the third time they've been to TPC Twin Cities so just two years of course history to look at and The big takeaway I think for me and looking at those events You got to go low Matthew Wolfe won at 21 under back in 2019 two other guys were 20 under in that event Michael Thompson won at 19 under last year. There were 11 total golfers who were at least 16 under in that field So if you want to compete this week, you gotta get birdies and weirdly That doesn't necessarily mean just distance. It is a longer course seven five seven four three one, but You can get there via accuracy I know with Matthew Wolfe and Bryson D. Shambo finishing top two back in 2019 It may seem like we need a distance and it is a longer course But last year five of the top six finishers were outside the top 100 in driving distance to the full PGA tour season But only one of the top six that's up to the top 78 and good drive rate Data golf numbers also say that accuracy does matter here and it makes sense is there's a lot of water Appropriate for the land of 10,000 lakes actually closer to 21,000. You got the man made lakes, but hey, who's counting? So to me, I do think we should go with good drives game this week as the off the tee stat I looked at Brandon's course primer over a number of fire. He says stroking off the tee So to me either way, it's We're not looking strictly distance strictly accuracy I think good drives gained or stroking off the tee the way to play things for this week in terms of the off the tee stat but you know, it might be It might make us under value guys like Wolf and D. Shambo You know hypothetically in previous fields who can bomb it off the tee and finish at the top of the leaderboard, but Hopefully the offset that I will put birdies are better gained in there So if we look at good drives gained guys who get birdies that should be allowing us to Not overlook guys like hypothetically a wolf or a D. Shambo for this year's event The putting numbers will be bent grass for this week but I think the true key stat and this is kind of burying the lead but the true key key key stat this week is Approach data golf has numbers that show what percentage of the scoring is explained by each metric and here Strokes gained approach explains 44% of the scoring. That's up from 35% for the average PGA tour event. So approach is king for this event. It's king every week But I think it's especially king this week So we want approach play above all else Then we want guys who can put it where they need to be a good drives gained and birdie makers Then we'll sprinkle in some bent grass putting as well Does seem like short game matters a bit less this week than usual, but either way You don't want to overlook putting all that much and that should give us a good idea of who will fare well for this week So for me my four key stats are good drives gained approach Birdies are better gained and then bent grass putting over the past one in a rise if you have it via fantasy national We'll talk about who has done well across the past two years here in just one second But first we are on to gain number six and Taco Bell the comeback bonus is still in play introducing the Fandals sportsbook and Taco Bell and the a finals comeback bonus the terms are simple All you have to do is to head to Fandals sportsbook before tip-off and place a $25 pre-live money-line bet on either team to win if the team you bet on over comes a half-time deficit to win You will be eligible to receive a $10 bonus and Fandals site credit You win your bets and you'll earn that bonus now That's more ways to win thanks to our friends at Taco Bell Users must opt-in to the promo in order to be eligible for the bonus payout Eligible every NBA finals game until the bonus hits must be 21 plus and present Colorado, Iowa, Illinois Indiana, Michigan, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, Virginia or West Virginia Bonus issued as a non withdrawal of site credit that expires in seven days max bonus ten dollars Restricts in the play see full terms at sportsbook.fandals.com gambling problem call one hundred gambler in Colorado one hundred five two two forty seven hundred in Iowa one hundred bets off in Indiana one hundred nine with it for Confidential help in Michigan one hundred two seven oh seven one one seven in Tennessee call the red line 1-800-89-979 or in West Virginia. This is at one hundred gambler dot net Let's take a look as I said before at the two events here at TPC Twin Cities And who has done well here in the past of the course history section of the big headliner there is Matthew Wolf He won here back in 2019 back when he was a rookie He followed that up with a 12th place finish last year He was awesome with his approach play in both those events wolf gained 9.5 strokes back in 2019 and 3.7 last year He didn't really feast off the team either of those but he was just so good elsewhere that it didn't really matter So the question with wolf is not about course history not about course fit It is about form. He has played three events since his his long hiatus He played well at the US Open then he imploded the travelers He gained a 3.9 t-degree in two rounds the rock and mortgage, but also lost 4.3 strokes putting So there is no safety here. You could withdraw. I can't consider him as a core play But I think that it's fine to get tournament exposure to Matthew Wolf because he's ten thousand two hundred dollars He has upside as he showed at the US Open. So I'm down to get some I Just don't want much more than that I think that there's a chance that Matthew Wolf winds up being popular for this week just because his odds are so short past winter here did do well at that major so I Would say that there is some risk involved there and there are some good pivots Cameron Davis is ten one we'll talk about Amelia on a grillo and Keegan Bradley later on all those guys right around wolf from a stellar perspective and I think that they're pivots so I Wouldn't mind getting some wolf this week But my hope would be that I'm underweight on him relative to the field just because I think he'll be popular and there are a lot of reasons for Concern lingering here for wolf another guy with good course form But questionable current form is Charles Howell the third he has played here both years thus far finished third last year Finished 23rd year before that and he did it in different ways Back in 2019 Howell was well rounded He gained at least 1.4 strokes off the tee on approach and around the green Whereas last year he gained at least four off the tee and on the greens The putting part makes sense because Howell is a very good putter But the form is not good right now Howell gained point two strokes in the approach of the John year classic So very minorly positive But that was his first plus mark of any kind since March 14th So Howell $8400 could stand out due to course history But I am okay missing on him on him here just because of the current form is Lack lustre enough to push me away even as a value play finally a million a grillo was here just last year But it was a good year He finished third in that one gained 8.4 strokes T degree and actually gained 1.8 on the greens important And that was really the start of the turnaround for grillo He had missed five of his previous seven cuts and eight of his previous 11 the miss cuts have Started to creep back here for grillo. He missed it three straight weeks before last week But then came back with a 12th place finish at the open championship Grillo is very risky, but with short game Hopefully mattering a bit less this week. I am pretty open in the $9,900 And I think that if we're looking at you know that tier between wolf and grillo I'd rather go grillo Even though he's risky to just because I don't think he'll be as popular as wolf in that same range Let's bring out the current form section and talk about I think the headliner for this week And that is Dustin Johnson. I think this is a good spot to a deep dive on what DJ is doing right now He is massive favorite here He's plus 7500 but if you want to use them You got to pay the piper because he's 12 to and nobody else is higher than 11,600 dollars Things have been a bit better for DJ recently He is coming off an eighth place finish at the open championship He has finished top 25 in four straight events but hasn't had a top five in that stretch and a lot of the gains for DJ in that time have come via putting if You look over the past six months He does rank second in true stakes true strokes gained over a data golf behind Louis West Hazen But he's in a tier with Tony Fee now Patrick Reed and Cameron Tringale Over the past year DJ does separate a bit from the pack And so I think that the way I'm doing DJ here is I'm not often definitely not often But his form does prevent this from being a situation where you just shovel in as much as you can handle a lot of times Where we have a guy who is has much shorter betting odds in the field. I will go overweight I will go 60 to 70 percent and just load up there. I don't think that's where I'll be with DJ this week I think that the salary combined with Motivation combined with form combined the fact this is not like a a Super difficult course all of the things to me Combined to make it where I think DJ is a fine play, but if I wanted being underweight, that's fine If he's 40 percent, I think I'll probably be about 30 percent for this week So still plenty DJ, but I would not be shocked if I wanted to be underweight on him Given the the factors that complicate his outlook for this week two other guys with noteworthy form right now Hank Libiota and Luke List Libiota is $9700. He enters here with three straight top ten finishes And he's doing it with good approach play and good putting Hank has gained at least his game multiple strokes and approach For the past six events. That's awesome He's gained at least four twice in that time and the putting has been red hot So that's good putting good putting is good. It does mean that he's probably from regression But hey, I mean I'm not gonna turn down good putting the one issue with Libiota has been the alpha T Play he has been slightly negative in three straight But he definitely grades up better in events that favor good drives gained He ranks 28 there the past 50 rounds per fantasy national as opposed to 67th and distance So open to it. I think that Libiota is interesting He's $9700 good range in there with Grillo and Talked about Bradley before to Cam Davis But I think that Libiota is part of why that range is good at least in my eyes List is the other guy mentioned. He's $8,900. He has back-to-back top fives both came in lesser tournaments But hey, this is kind of you know in that range, too He was fit that the Barbasol fourth at the John Deere classic So good finishes for list and he did it in good ways He gained double digit strokes T to green in both of those events list at the Barbasol Finish fifth despite losing two point three strokes putting typical Luke List fashion And it makes sense because of the past 50 rounds list ranks 14th and birdies are better gained despite being a Horrific putter so I don't want to target Luke List because of the good finishes Those are whatever finishes are what they are But I think he deserves to be a consideration at $8,900 the the ball striking should be very good this week Despite the fact it's not a distance course. He's still good In terms of good drives gained ranks 46th there 18th and approach 14th and birdies are better gained I think there is enough here to make us be okay with Luke the list this week Even disregarding the finishes the other data to me says list is a consideration as a value play for this week Let's take a look at what the bookmakers are saying here as a little to Dustin Johnson the heavy favorite at the end of Sportsbook he is plus 750 then we have a tier of three guys behind him It's Louis West Hazen Tony Fina and Patrick Reed West Hazen is 15 to 1 Fina is 16 to 1 Reed is 19 to 1 Then there is a second tier drop down to Matthew Wolf at 30 to 1 That's part of why I think he'll be popular this week because the odds are pretty short Bubba Watson Cameron Tringalee Sergio Garcia and Robert McIntyre are all in that tier 2 they are all 31 to 1 The fourth here is Miliano Grillo at 35 to 1 and Cameron Davis at 36 to 1 So I think the tiers from an odds perspective are pretty key for this week to me I want to have one out of the top four guys in each lineup that is DJ West Hazen Fina and Reed I want one of those four guys because the wind equity those four guys combined carry Is too much for me to skip that tier entirely and that second tier is pretty juicy I likely want at least one from that tier as well I have my favorites me each tier but and we'll talk about those in the tier by tier breakdown but I think the overall key here is I think you can get in three golfers whose odds are shorter than 40 to 1 this week the the cutoff there is Grillo and Davis at uh, you know around 40 to 1 I guess I put Keegan in that range too, but if you can get three guys At $9,900 or higher. I think you should do so for this week Hinkley Beode, I think is a consideration for that tier as well But that does push me a bit towards, you know, a bit more balanced approach maybe going with A fina at 11-5 followed by Trangalia 10-9 and then getting Bradley Grillo one of those guys Or Davis and I think that that could work out pretty well for this week So I think that's the way to play things getting three guys with win odds at roughly 40 to 1 or shorter To make sure I have the proper amount of win equity for this event As far as movement, we haven't seen too many guys shorten thus far. One exception is Chris Kirk He moved from 75 to 1 to 70 to 1 Brendan Todd also shortened to 70 He was previously 80 to 1 Kyle Stanley shortened to 75 to 1 from 85 and Steve Stricker shortened 295 from 110 to 1 We'll talk about Chris Kirk in the tier by tier breakdown because I think he is an awesome play For this week as far as golfers whose salaries are lower than you would expect based on their odds There is a big group in the lower 9,000 in the upper 8,000 range. We got Doug Gimm He is $9,100 but 48 to 1 like him a lot. We'll talk about him later Paton Kezire and Ryan Morable 50 to 1 Kezire is $9,200 more is $8,800 Stuart Sink and Luke Lister both 95 to 1 Sink is $9,100 while listed $8,900 and All those guys are good approach players. So it makes sense. They would grade out pretty well And I think that I can't push back Too hard on any of them among them because I was the one guy who has good putting numbers on bentgrass as well so Kezire is not in my player picks for this week, but I do think that Kezire is firmly consideration I prefer Gimm but Kezire right up there for me as a guy. I am okay targeting in that lower 9,000 range whether for this week seems A tiny bit windy. It's not bad. It's around 10 miles per hour the entire weekend The wind patterns are the same both Thursday and Friday meaning that it's a bit lower in the morning Bit higher in the afternoon, which means both waves should be pretty equal. So to me No real way advantages nothing too concerning here, which means we can play things straight up and transition Into our tier by tier breakdown Let's start things off here with the highest salary plays based on the salaries over at fan duel.com As mentioned, I am okay with dj this week and I will use it But I wouldn't be shocked if I wanted to be underweight instead I'm pretty into both louis west hasen and tony finow west hasen is 11 6 He just keeps feasting against tougher fields. And this is not a tougher field We mentioned before that west hasen leads the field and true strokes gained over the past six months He actually has an edge of 0.48 strokes per round above dj. So basically half a stroke per round I think 11 6 is more than fair here for west hasen. Obviously Motivation given he was in contention this past week. That's a concern. But just straight up I think that west hasen makes a lot of sense at 11 6 As for finow 11 5 he's right behind west hasen He is known for his length but finow not terrible from a good drive perspective ranks 60th there Not erratic when he needs to be he ranks 15th and approach six than birdies or better gained Ben grass is also the best putting surface for finow He shook off the two missed cuts heading into the open played well there So I think it makes sense to go back to finow here at 11 to 5 I would not be shocked if I wound up having more west hasen or finow than dj just because I like the salaries that they have uh, but I think all three of those guys definitely standouts here and I didn't mention patrick reed but I think that he's actually pretty interesting win bets at 19 to 1 and Good putter the best putter of bentgrass of this group. He makes birdies good approach player So I I want to have exposure all four of those guys And I do want to get there for sure I'd probably rank reed fourth, but I think from a win bet perspective He might be my favorite which is kind of weird. He has longest odds But by the way, uh, all four guys are golfers to whom I want exposure Would rank them west hasen finow dj and then reed made dfs perspective for this week Cameron trangalli is another guy like here. He is 10 9 So in that third tier we discussed from an odds perspective and also from a salary perspective And I think that the balanced approach of getting west hasen or finow and then getting trangalli is your number two Is pretty enticing this week that allows you to pepper that's high 9 000 low 10 000 range from it Which I do like for this week trangalli is not good off the tee But he keeps up just putting up competitive numbers despite that the best split Is good drives gained from a driving perspective for trangalli He ranks 45th there compared to 60 at the distance gained 49th and fairways gains. He's a good driver. He can be fine. I guess I should say not good He can be fine We know the approach play will be there trangalli ranks sixth an approach over the past 50 rounds That's why he ranks fifth and bernie's a better gained over the past 50 rounds despite the bad driver He's also 25th in bentgrass putting Trangalli finished third here last year So I'm down to repeat on trangalli here at 10 9. I think he makes a lot of sense and again, I think that the build of One of finow or west hasen with trangalli for some balance will be an attractive one Part of the reason I want to do that is because I love the mid-range. Let's move now there It's a good range My favorite guy here is miliana grillo talked about the struggles the recent struggles earlier, but I trust a longer sample more than that and grillo ranks sixth in true strokes gained over the past six months That includes his bad short gain numbers, which may matter a bit less this week They include his splits on non-bentgrass surfaces. Bentgrass is one like palatable putting the surface I would say It's all bent on that upside which grillo has shown At times semi recently and he showed it at this course for the third place finish last year So grillo among those guys is my favorite option I put keegan bradley on this list here, too He is similar to grillo where we know the imperfections. They're pretty obvious But bradley still ranks 23rd and birdies are better gained despite the bad putting He leads this field in both approach and good tries gained. They're both $9,900. I like them I like hank libyo at $9,700 and then also I lump in camera davis in this tier Davis ranks eighth and birdies are better gained good approach play 23rd and bentgrass putting so I am in on him But I rank him below Grillo and bradley just because I think the approach play for both those guys will be really really good for this week On the bottom end of the mid-range. I like dug gim at $9,100 He is not a big birdie maker ranks just 51st. They're the past 50 rounds But a lot of that is likely due to distance gim ranks 97th and distance gained But sixth and good drives game He has the approach numbers we want. He ranks fourth there He finished 18th on this course last year before he had this like little mini surge. He's had recently So for $9,100 I am okay With the imperfections gim comes with not a great putter, but I think that's off may A floor perspective gim works, but also don't mind his upside here So dug gim my favorite guy in the low 9,000 range and as mentioned before I do like patent desire as well As far as the value goes lonto griffin very similar to dug gim not a big birdie guy, but the hope is that It's due to his off the tee play Griffin ranks 17th in approach and 32nd in bentgrass putting really fun combination that that combination Might be enough for him to do well this week. I like griffin here at $9,000 Chris Kirk is $8,700 mentioned before that his odds have been shortening. He's another guy despite I love despite some rough putting He ranks 100th in bentgrass putting but he is 14th in good drives games 21st in approach coming up miscuts, but that was at the open championship So a tough field there less tough here kirk ranks ninth in data golf's true strokes games But it's $8,700. I think he's a rock star. So chris kirk to me someone I'm very good with for this week in the value range The final guy I mentioned down here is johnny vegas. He is $8,300 makes birdies He ranks 13th there the past 50 rounds and that's despite being a bad putter I know shocker a lot of bad putters here between grillo Bradley kirk and now vegas vegas is not bad in terms of good drives games But you can put it on the the fairway when he needs to or scramble after that approach play has been especially good recently for vegas, which is part of why the good drives game number is good And vegas has converted that into upside When he's faced lesser fields, I consider that to be this to be that this week So if you use vegas $83 you can really load up on the studs So to me, I think vegas $83 not as good as kirk at 87, but still someone I am willing to use for this week Okay before brandon left for his vacation He did send along some win picks and unfortunately picks some pretty good ones I wish he hadn't because I'd like to beat him But he's going with tony finna at 16 to 1 and cameron trangalli at 31 to 1 I think both those are good picks and I would have considered them had brandon not gone there With those guys off the board I think the guys I like most are patrick reed at 19 to 1 again Final guy before that tear drop off good bird birdie maker good bank grass putter did miss a cut last week But honestly who cares so I think reed at 19 to 1 pretty good win bet for this week The other guy I like is hank lee biota at 47 to 1 He's more brandon sky, but just really good balance 28th and good drives gained 20th and approach 29th and birdies are better gained 37th and then grass potting no real holes in terms of the stats looking at this week Awesome finishes recently. He's been here each of the past two years with top 35 finishes both times So hank lee biota and patrick reed my win picks and brandon going with tony finnau and cameron trangalli Branding will be with us next week here on the pga heat checks Make sure you are subscribed to the number fire daily fantasy podcast feed to get that But that is all that we have here for today on the heat check fantasy podcast getting you set for the 3m open Should be a lot of fun. We'll see how things play out again. I think the key is decide how you want to handle dj and then go from there, but overall Given that there are Palatable golfers in each salary tier. I think we should have multiple ways to play things for this week Which to me is always reassuring once again Make sure you are subscribed to the number fire daily fantasy podcast feed wherever you find your podcast We're not the podcast spotify stitcher google podcasts radio dot com Wherever you get your podcast you can find us hit subscribe there But also leave a rating and review if you like what you hear If you have questions for me before uh, or I guess overall before uh lock on thursday I am on twitter at jim sonnis j i m s a n n e s You can also follow the fan dual podcast network at fan dual podcast big Thank you to everyone for tuning in for this week. Good luck to you with your lot of so the 3m open We'll talk to you once again next week. This is about the heat check fantasy podcast powered by number fire