 Wow, I once I once heard a story. It's true story But I can't remember the name of the fellow today. He was a he was a I think he was in charge of some traders a Fund in London bit of an older chap. He used to go to work every day He'd read the financial times. He'd flip a coin and decide whether it be long or short Hmm and whatever they did they would just the whole the whole group would just be long or short Whatever bias he just Decided They all perform the market and so if you if you think Leon's doing that essentially he's saying I'm deciding to be long short the data and I'm not going to change my opinion and you know Casing points selling the other dollars. I'm not change my opinion. I'm just gonna show you Yeah It makes life a lot easier It really does then you know trying to chase a trend You know and trying to chase price because price is deceptive price isn't always reflective of value and value Isn't always reflected in price So my my my number one thing is is this a bargain? You know, is this cheap? What is this cheap? All right, there's a lot of traders here Who we're looking at this goes into maybe something that there's something else maybe just a sidetrack But they would have been looking at that level in real time and how many traders We'll be looking at that level right and Looking at okay. We want to break out bounce bounce bounce And then they get the cheese Right they get short Then this large massive candle here Yeah Again, this would have stopped them out. They probably would have went long not understanding that in fact this was a nice area fresh area of supply and I'm getting short here and Sorry and then look what happens When people see massive candles like this, they tend to get scared of price, but if you understand value Right, you won't you won't get scared of of buying into strong Candles if you have conviction in what it is that you're doing am I gonna be right all the time No, just manage my risk and go for more than I go more than our risk and then that's it At two to one all I've got to do is be right more than 35% of the time To make profit and if I'm right 35% of time I break even There were there abouts and the question I have to ask myself is can I be right more than 35% at two to one? And if I got fundamentals on my side I've got the fundies on my side Right and the data is saying so the only thing that really kind of scuppers trades is you know short-term sentiment potential stop hunting, etc. Liquidity But overall if I'm comparing data from the countries Again, you have to ask yourself Can you be right more than 35% of the time at two to one and that's it That's why fundamentals are so important. Yeah, that's super cool. So like that idea of Could you do that? Could you be right? Could you make money? Yeah Yes commissions work, but of course, yeah, it's like Always seemed really achievable to me as an idea as a concept. Yeah So what would that but what would that mean it just means you have to take good trades and manage your risk and You've got a fighting chance, could you really be that poor? Well, even if you are you're not gonna be you're not gonna be blowing tons of money You're just gonna be down a little bit. Yeah, exactly You're Michael right everyone. All right. Yeah. Yeah, so Distance traveled and fresh levels we always want to look for Fresh absolute the freshest levels of demand and this leads into I guess Support and resistance as well So fresh levels and the reason why you want to look for fresh levels is because for for one You're buying at the first discount To us a fresh level just so a fresh level would be for example, I look at the bottom level right Let's do it demand. All right, so a fresh level would be totally untouched. Sorry So that would be in real time. She's actually it's right there Demand right so when prices went in and out that's a nice that's a nice Technical demand zone. I love that love seeing that it's just the wrong direction You know, you'd be buying euros here And I wouldn't be buying euros but what you want to see is it really kind of untouched on You know not tainted not tampered not prices coming in for maybe a couple of reasons and The main so it may be one of the reasons is that You want to be the first really if you understand value to be the buyer once everyone starts seeing this and maybe I can draw this I'm trying to think of trying to look for an example. All right brilliant example would be right here Yeah And in fact, I took this trade as well And this is on YouTube matter of fact around the top for note. You'll see this a talk for November on YouTube my YouTube channel I was I was arguing the points they arguing but demonstrating the point that There's going to be a lot of traders in real time looking to short this area All right, and the reason why is because I think I was saying that Supply so it's a port of resistance doesn't represent doesn't always represent value so Most traders would look at this level bounce bounce and then it's gone through and then they would look Right at this area to short because what should happen is? support Support should turn to what resistance But again, where was the proof of value in this move? Lower highs lower lows right right here. So the best area to look For a sell trade was up here. Everything below this Right isn't a great You're buying that necessarily an expensive level for the dollar. So We take that area there So this is an expensive level for the dollar and we know this for a fact because prices couldn't go any lower In between this high and this low is the 50% people say Fibonacci is not Fibonacci number But it'll be represented as fair value now traders who were looking at this level bounce bounce and then Support becomes resistance. You can imagine what they were looking to do on the intraday is looking to sell but if we're looking at This being a bargain and this being expensive this being fair value of buying Below fair with a binding in an expensive area. They're buying the dollar actually in an expensive zone so when prices went through Mm-hmm, they end up getting stopped out This area here was actually a level a level of Demand sorry supply Supply and all I was doing is waiting for my first chance to sell Prices came up and on the intraday. I got short in this area here This one actually didn't make targets. I literally was about I made one-to-one targets. I split my my risk up. So I do one-to-one on The first position and then I let the second position run to around 80% of the range And this must have come probably around about five or six pips On my target it literally just didn't touch my second position, but Yeah, so that's pretty much it that is what I do all the time just look for supply zones So because of that level that you've you've drawn to the left was you anticipating that it was going to go sideways at that point Yeah, do you know what I? Always anticipate a ranging market, especially after a trending market the market will you know There's obviously market states train training and ranging so after lower highs and lower lows I Expect Market to range from somewhere. It's even gonna range from here or it's gonna range from Some other demand zones. I don't know which one, but I'm anticipating It's gonna range from here from here or from here We just don't know which one it is going to range from So that's a great question matter of fact, I'm always anticipating Prices to range because I mean the stats I guess say that prices are you know more in a ranging market than they are in a trending market But again, it just depends on the the pair that you're buying so At the minimum I expect to range at the best I expect the trend I guess to continue But either way I'm expecting something to happen at a supply zone and I'm buying the dollar You know if it's not there and it and prices don't work out. That's fine as long as my fundamentals are in place You know, I've got to keep an eye on obviously sentiment But as long as the fundamentals are in place short short Always short because of the bias. That's exactly it and then I'm expecting obviously prices to range even from there or there or You know, and if like I said if I'm right about my fundamentals then they should at least Come down and retest the lows If I'm right on my fundamental bias if I'm buying at a value How did you know that price will not pull back further where you bought there? You're just like candle sticks out. I don't I don't know that's the thing You know, we've we've priced you never know. It's just probabilities. I just manage my risk So I you know when if I if I kind of clear this this was gonna be the first area the first area of supply That I was looking at so look at, you know, one of the things I said was A bit busy chart, but is you want to see like the hard in hard out price movement and it looked Brilliant from here. Look at this. Look at that hard in Hard out. That's what I like to see So then it was just a case of looking for price action On the lower time frame the four hour is what I trade four six eight and twelve. I look at and then if I see specific candles And then I look to get short What do you look for man? It's like rejections and golfing candles and things. Yeah, pretty much pretty much. It's just you know, your typical Really, I only have a kind of two candles two candle Two how do I put it? I look for Two setups really for two candle formation setups. That's about it On the four the six to eight and the 12 it's nothing too complicated too complex Well, I chose that Yeah, but when it comes to value the point being was that Buying at Buying here where everyone else was buying You know, I sometimes I like to look at what other traders are doing on youtube. Yeah And on this one, um, I had to you know, uh, have a look because I just I thought to myself I know they're all buying. I know they're all going to be buying You know, I say buying the dollar, but it's going to be trading here and sure enough You know the popular youtubers were like, yep. Yep. Yep sell here talk becomes resistance. Da da da da and I was like No, no no no and actually made a video so you can check that out on youtube as well on this day And I was saying This is not the level to buy even if even if prices Prices would have now reversed here. Now a lot of traders probably Would have been like, yay, I was correct. That's fine It's all that is fine for me because what happens is if that creates A lower low let's say What I'll be doing is looking for a pullback into this area here because that would have then created My supply zone Because I'm looking for proof of value lower highs lower lows and then prices prices come back because prices will come back to a supply zone Now will the supply zone work again? It's just probabilities, but This is always Proof of value x this was a bargain area. It was such a bargain that it went past What would have been the expensive area? It made a new low so if prices ever come back to this area, that's Where I want to be buyer Of the dollar