 Hey everybody what's going on I am Greg Sussman joined today by Gabe Morenze with you to break down the return of the UFC this Saturday night UFC 249 what's up Gabe? Good to see you Greg great to have the fights back let's rock. Absolutely and let's begin with our main event that's Tony Ferguson in charge he's the number one contender for the lightweight interim title and he is somebody that you are banking on as a favor why do you like Tony Ferguson here? Well you know it's hard to get in front of a guy that hasn't lost a fight since the Oklahoma City Thunder were playing the Miami Heat in the NBA Finals you have to go back that far guys and in fact it's hard to believe actually that the New York Giants actually won a Super Bowl that it was only eight years ago but think about that the last time Tony Ferguson lost the fight was 2012 2012 the New York Giants beat the New England Patriots at the Super Bowl the Miami Heat beat a very young Kevin Durant and a young Russell Westbrook and the Oklahoma City Thunder so a lot of things have happened unfortunately nothing had happened in 2012 call me maybe became a thing that song actually was released at a big hit in 2012 so you get where I'm going with this as a bedding man I just don't want to get in front of a guy that's that's won 12 fights in a row and it hasn't lost since 2012 now his critics will tell you that who is he beaten number one who is he beaten he hasn't beaten a roll of champions like some fighters have faced that is true other people will tell you that he's very hit-able that is true as well listen there's a lot of hype about Justin Gates he coming in here he's got 18 of his 21 wins or via knockout that Greg the guys a headhunter he's a phone booth type of fighter which means he's gonna step into the middle of the octagon and he's gonna want to bang now Tony Ferguson likes punishment you know when you speak to you when you when you hear fighters you talk to fighters and fought him they say the same thing after that he almost enjoys pain like for real and he likes to basically out suffer you and prove that he can out suffer you it's a dangerous way to fight against a headhunter like gachie but Tony Ferguson is so dynamic he's so versed he's good at everything and he's so relentless another thing is to gachie's been in the fourth round before but just once with Poirier for the most part his fights ended in the first round the deeper this fight goes to me it's more of an advantage for Tony Ferguson Ferguson trained for could be but he's had enough time to readjust right now for Justin gachie I just don't want to get in front of a guy that hasn't lost in eight years right now I'll lay the price and I'll tell you what the money keeps coming in on gachie right now so if you like Ferguson I think well you know you should probably wait until the last possible second to pull the trigger because it seems like everyone's betting on the underdogs on this card but I like the favorite I like Ferguson Justin gachie the popular bet right now Tony Ferguson according to Gabe Morenze he's the smart bet hasn't lost in eight years and although he's been trained for Khabib he's in a good spot to claim the lightweight interim title on Saturday night let's move on to another title about that's Henry Zahudo taking on Dominic Cruz it's a Bantam weight title fight and gave you and I were talking earlier some people believe that Henry Zahudo is the best fighter in the world you're putting your money on that you know I've never been a big Henry Zahudo fan he tries too hard online and you know he's a big he's an internet shawler actually but he can back it up and we're talking about a guy that's an Olympic gold medalist he's an Olympic champion you want a gold medal in the Olympics US US Olympian wrestler and he's also a guy that's held belts in two classes in a UFC so his pedigree is really second and none now a lot of people regard Khabib to be the best fighter in the world John Jones John Jones you could argue is maybe the best of all time but because of the sideshow and all the issues with John Jones it's hard to give him credit for being the best when Khabib you know doesn't get suspended and arrested every six months although he has been suspended before but that's besides the point so who knows that good all right Dominic Cruz used to be that good Dominic Cruz is one of the best fighters in mixed martial arts history and he's one of the smartest fighters in MMA history he's a great television analyst Dominic Cruz is going to know what to do and what not to do against Henry Zahudo the problem is Cruz is 35 years old he hasn't fought in 41 months he hasn't want to fight in 48 months which is four years and you know even though Dominic Cruz this is a problem of Cruz great fighter but he's had multiple surgeries and you know he's had multiple surgeries hips knees and it slowed him down one thing with Cruz though is he's very good at not fighting for a couple of years and coming back there's no cage rust with this guy like he actually uses it to his advantage where he's refreshed and there's a lot of talk about Cruz being old he's not really all that old he's 35 and Zahudo's 33 but the difference is it's inevitable it's inevitable you cannot stop Henry Zahudo from taking you down he's a world-class wrestler nobody has the wrestling pedigree and mixed martial arts that this guy does and oh yeah he's added a vicious stand-up and striking attack to his game as well it's interesting a lot of people are buying in the Dominic Cruz right now as well these countdown shows do a good job of swaying the line but you're getting a value pick here Dominic Cruz will make a fight of it he'll look good and you know it's going to be impressive for a 35 year old that hasn't fought in basically four years but ultimately Henry Zahudo at minus two tens of value bet believe it or not give me the gold medal champion Cruz will look good Zahudo will be better the better fighter a better wrestler it's Henry Zahudo one of the best fighters in the world will get a job done according to Gabe on Saturday night let's move on to the prelims game where two names and everybody knows it's Anthony Pettis taken on Donald Cerrone here the cowboy in this welter weight bout Anthony Pettis number 15th ranked fighter in this division Cerrone is the number six fighter here you're going with Anthony Pettis how come well it's interesting you mentioned a weight class of this you know Pettis going up to a buck 70 here they both sort of bounced around from 155 and 170 and I don't I think Pettis was at his best at 155 now Anthony Pettis is an interesting guy somebody that you know had the ESPN Sports Center highlight of the year with a a fence kick in which he jumped off the fence and kicked Ben sent Benson Henderson in the head and it was like the highlight the kick of the century type of stuff that you know he kid ended up winning a championship and ended up on a Wheaties box literally and federally it's on a Wheaties box and last couple of years been on the side of a milk carton because his his success has been a wall and has been missing two fighters here cowboy Cerrone's you know coming to the end of the line here he made some nice money when he fought against against Conor McGregor in the return and the thing with cowboy is he really is a cowboy like he rides horses ATV's you know he climbs he climbs you know mountains and he really is an outdoor you know active person so he's a type of guy doesn't live in mansions and stuff so he's just sort of stockpiling money and you can sort of tell with cowboy Cerrone whether it's a money fight or whether it's a fight that yeah I'm gonna win this fight I'm not playing around here I'm gonna win or it's like wink wink I'm cashing a check today he's gonna want to win this fight he was called out after it wasn't a very good performance was an embarrassing performance for him even though it's against Conor McGregor he's lost three fights in a row that the thing is with cowboy he's you know he's been fighting murders and you know he fought a guy like Justin Gage he's so Anthony Pettis is sort of an underachiever but they fought before in 2013 I know it was a while ago but Anthony Pettis beat him and cowboy Cerrone said he basically kicked the liver out of my body and cowboy Cerrone is a little bit vulnerable to body shots and he's also vulnerable to people that just get to attack him it's a style makes fights fight and pick for me and once again I think I might be in a minority here a lot of people a lot of smart people I respect like cowboy but I'm gonna take the kid from Milwaukee and Anthony Pettis styles make fights I think it's a good matchup for Anthony Pettis I think he beats it for the second time Greg lay the 44 cents with with AP as Gabe mentioned these two fighters did do battle back in 2013 it's a long time ago the fighters have changed the result will not according to Gabe Anthony Pettis gets the job done again let's stay right here on the prelims let's move on to a women's bout here's a women's straw weight bout with Carla as far as that is taken on Michelle waters in here in this one gave we've been waiting for you to pick an upset that this is where you'll do it yeah I finally have an underdog here and a couple of other underdogs I was taking a look at your eye hall could be worth a shot as well against Jack right but as far as water said and as far as it is concerned I've done pretty good job over the years of reading Carlos bars and this is an interesting fight in the sense it's kind of cliche when you hear people talk about well it's a wrestler versus a striker this really is your classic wrestler versus sort of karate in a water city is known as the karate hotty kickboxer karate style versus a sheer wrestler Carlos bars are very similar to so who though you know smaller weight class started to add some stand-up to her game right now I just think Michelle waters in is more of a well-rounded fighter than as far as is she's the level of competition that waters in his face you know I think it is prepared her for this fight it's gonna be tough like there's gonna be an interesting fight if as far as is able to take her down that it's gonna we're gonna be in trouble with this pick because she's just gonna rinse and repeat it and I might not be the most exciting fight that but as far as it's gonna have success but I think waters is gonna be able to do enough to keep her distance get in and out rack up enough points this fight's gonna go the distance I've got waters and pulling off the upset here give me give me the karate hotty plus 136 going with the upset here with waters in having the ability to take her down we'll see what happens of course Saturday night but it's an upset small upset but we'll take waters in here in this bout moving on in the early pre-lims tell me game what you know about Bryce Mitchell and Charles Rosa in this featherweight contest this is another fun fight here Bryce Mitchell might be the the best or they are a 12 and 0 fighter professional that you've never really heard of nobody really knows much about this kid you know he's he's out there all right and not every MMA fighter in the old days they used to sort of be more just sort of fighters now there's a lot of athletes guys that went to college and wrestled and etc not every guy is just sort of a you know old school brawler Mitchell is I mean this kid lives in the woods in Arkansas he's been training by chasing rabbits and I know I eating them after the fact he believes that the COVID and coronavirus is a vast government conspiracy to seize everybody's guns and that it was you know made in a lab and if you we can get deeper actually all right so you get where I'm going with this but this is a type of guy that won't be affected by a travel number one is Arkansas Florida not much of a travel but a lot of these fighters camps weren't as orthodox as normal Greg either their gyms were closed they didn't have the same training partners they normally do there's a lot of old-school Mr. T training going on here for this car you know I mean guys alone in their backyard guys like going old-school training hitting bags and stuff and I think just Mitchell is ready to fight he's not worried about the virus he's not concerned he's ready to go and he's fighting an inconsistent fighter in Rosa Rosa's a good fighter but I just like Mitchell in this spot I think it's a fair price at minus 158 as you mentioned Bryce Mitchell comes into this one at 12 and oh we think he goes to 13 and oh he's training the woods by himself this is perfect perfect opportunity we pick up another victory one more match we want to get into here one more fight I should say and that's the heavy weight bout on this main card and you don't necessarily gave want to pick a winner but you do want to talk about the length of this fight will go well you know I do think the guy who's gonna win the fight all right I do believe the guy who's gonna with fight and we can start to put together some parlays for you can parlay the guy who in for doom and make money you can parlay at Tony Ferguson Henry so who don't for brish over doom parlay at plus 203 at Fandle as well so there's different ways to approach this guys these are the picks that I like and you can mix and match a little bit with the parlays but I'm not going to give you a minus 300 favorite to win a fight and then who is going to win this fight Jeron Zeno Rosenstruck is an interesting fighter 10 and oh but he's he's really fought a lot of just sort of tomato cats as we call him you know some of his wins you know are against suspect opponents now Alistair over him was a real opponent and it was the kid dug down deep and he found a way to win a fight against a real tough fighter and over him the guy who's next level though the guy who Greg broke the Guinness Book of World Records okay for the strongest punch ever documented he fought for the championship a couple of years ago against a steepie Miosic and and you know he didn't look good he was outclassed he wasn't ready for you know he was knocking out a bunch of sort of average guys he got catapulted because he's impressive and he has these heavy hands he's impressive looking he was outclassed a lot of times the guys will lose a fight and it'll help them you have to learn to lose before you know how to win Steven Tyler and dream on stated as true especially in a fight game but he followed that up with another lethargic loss to Derek Lewis and people wondered I'm what's going on when again here was he just hyped as he you know this as it passes he passes peak no he started to put it together right now three consecutive wins the guys are vicious but Rosenstruck is a tough guy he can absorb a couple of shots and the thing is when you get and that the total year is one and a half rounds guys when you get two headhunters like this and get heavy weights like this the odds makers don't really have a choice they can't make the total two and a half somebody is eventually going to get knocked out in this fight this fight isn't going to go the distance but at the same point in time styles make fights and we have two dudes that both know the only way I lose here is if I get stupid and get punched in the face and a lot of these heavyweight guys will try to sort of wear the other guy out Greg they'll try to show you know what I'm in better shape than you so I'm gonna sort of dance around and you know I'm not just gonna slug I'm gonna make you get tired a lot of the heavyweights aren't in the best shape they're bigger dudes and then they sort of come in for the kill I think that's going to be an instance here it's almost like you have two killer you know alligators and they're sizing each other up I'm gonna roll the dice here that this fight goes over one and a half rounds and we cash the over at minus 110 I think again it was eventually going to finish them but I'll take my chance that Rosenstruck can last seven and a half minutes two big dudes going at it here but like you said they both know what the game plan is the only a loser knocks somebody out and hopefully that knockout takes place after the first round game emergency we appreciate your time good luck this weekend yeah great to have fights up back and yeah don't forget guys there's actually three fight cards coming up in the next week after this Saturday night card in Jacksonville so sports are coming back baby great to have them back absolutely the UFC is back this first card Saturday night UFC 249 you're not going to want to miss it for game emergency I'm Greg Sussman thanks so much for watching we'll see you next time on another edition of the fan tool hurry up stay safe everybody