 The following is a presentation of TFNN. The Tiger Technician Hour. With your host, Basil Chapman. Call now toll free at 1-877-927-6648 internationally at 727-445-1044. Now, Basil Chapman. Hi, everyone. Basil Chapman, Tiger Technician Hour. This is the 12 o'clock to 1 o'clock show Monday through Friday. We take your calls at 877-927-6648. I'm also the author of the opening call, Daily Newsletter. And we've got a lot to do today. Technical Friday. Let's get to it. And one of the reasons why I've been saying that we want to just stay short for subscribers, the Dow, and the SMH as the semiconductor index is because I think that there is, even if there was a balance, even if it was a short-term balance, I think that the balance is a transitory. We need to establish some kind of a low. And there's a little more information that we need to get before we can do that. So now let me see what's going on on my chart showing up. My charts are showing. I'm okay. So now let's go to the, just for the moment, I'm going to hold off going through the indices just to recap. The dollar has had a fabulous move. It's made another one of those arch formations. Remember, just let me go through this quickly, because we've got quite a number of people that I know have just started listening to my show, new dinners, new tigers, core patterns in the Chapman wave. We tried to identify the lowest low-bar merely count each successively higher peak, alphabetize them on the way up, capital A, B, C, D. At the fourth highest peak at D, other things can happen. Yes, it can recycle and go higher to E, F, and G. There's no H. You have to reconfigure it to find out what's happening at that particular level. You could get a G slash C, which usually leads to a cup formation going to a D. Talking about formations, there are only three patterns as far as I'm concerned. Straight up, straight down. That's that pattern right there, straight up, straight down. So you go peak A, B, C, D, add D, other things can happen. But that's what we look at. Try to identify the lowest low-bar. And then, so it's one pattern, up and down, straight. There's an arch formation, which could be an inverted V. It's the same thing going from point A, rallying, coming back to that point A. How do you test it is the issue. Then you can have a cup formation rally up. How you come back to that particular level either in a cup or a V-shaped pattern is important. Just straight up, straight down. Arch formation, cup formation. Then you can get a combination. That's the variation. The variation is a lowercase h where you take out the left side. We're going to see tons of those today. And that's very important. That's why it's red, because if you go under it in a certain manner, you can keep doing that. And then the upside, you go to the left side high. How you take it out is very important. Enough with that. Let's get on to see what we're doing. Look at the cup formations in the weekly chart. Look how many we've had. Huge cup formations, small cup formations. Big, big. Some more like bowl formations. And you're going right into resistance area in the 98th in the dollar. And this is the weekly chart. The magnies still good, flat, but good. And it keeps the last major signal. And that's up. And the stochastic at 76 under 80% says, you know what, right here you could get some kind of a consolidation. So far, the weekly chart has had no consolidation at all. It's still a green candle for the day. Nicely above the nine period moving average. The dollar above the 97, 36, 14 period moving average. But this is where you can start to find at a leg E. Very quick, D to E. This is where you can start to have some kind of consolidation, let's call it. And look at the dollar in the daily. You've made a peak E slash B. And the MACD is okay. It's not great. It hasn't crossed negative. And stochastic is under 80%. So this is now a little bit more vulnerable towards some kind of digestive phase. Talk about patterns. But the Dow, I spoke about this when I was doing my, when I was the guest speaker of the Boston investors group here in Boston area at over at MIT in Cambridge the other night. And what we'll be looking at, we were looking at the arch formations. And then I said this particular candle has a lot of implications, especially when it's at a low, it should be, it should be a big positive. And if there is a close above this, I can show it here. It's a little bit better. Right here. This is what I show my subscribers every day. It says Chapman with Roman candle. Okay. And that Roman candle right there, the rule of thumb for me, especially if it's at a high, is that if it starts coming down, watch out below, especially if it takes out halfway into the wick. But on the bottom side, when assigned to get to an area where there could be support, it has to close twice out of three sessions above the high of the of the Roman Chapman wave Roman candle. Why is it Roman candle? You know how Roman candle you it's got this tiny little wick you got the big candle itself. And then you've got a long stick. You like that little wick. Boom. It explodes to the downside. So I'd say within two sessions, if there is a 90 minute period where the Dow is trading below 25, I think I said 25,000 five. So 25,050. That would be very negative. And that would say we're going to or even below the wick low of in this case, it was the week low of Wednesday. So now we're looking at that was Thursday. That was Friday. Yep. Today's Friday. So we've done that. And we actually forming another maybe a Roman candle. However, if you look at the 120 minute chart, we're getting close to some kind of support and automated Chapman wave support levels 24,706.22. And the low today is already 24,840. So with that in mind, let's go now to the nitty gritties. The nitty gritties are saying that in the Dow chart, the mag D is still very negative and wide and expanding. The stochastic said 18% of my contention has been that we probably have to wait for the single digits, not just the 15, but not the teens, but the single digits before we get a significant chance of a strong rally. A more sustainable rally, talking about three to five sessions or more, maybe even longer, but I don't know, but that's we haven't got that yet. And the weekly chart has made a peak. See if that was a D, everything about this would have had a down candle with the two doji candles at the top on the week of the 26th of April and the week before. And we've got 26,695 failure pattern under the 14 period moving average under the nine period. Nines crossing negative below the 14 period. Magdies, negatives stochastics way down 45%. But in percentage terms, the Dow is still holding well. It hasn't gone to a 50% retracement yet. It could be on the way, but it hasn't done it yet. And that monthly chart, look at those big red candles off the, this Chapman Wave inside track repellent zone. So today we're going to close out with a really ugly red candle. And this is a spectacular rally between now and four o'clock. And it goes above the 14 period moving average in the monthly, which is at 25,054. Once again, we go to 25,050s. Okay, so as it stands right now, very negative. We remain long for subscribers to remain along the DOG, the long side of the short ETF of the Dow. And now we can go to the S&P. So what has to happen by next week Wednesday? You really need to see a rally over 25,250 to say there's a chance that we've made at least an internal load before you get some kind of a residual load. Going on to the S&P, SPX.X. Whoa, we've got a lot of questions coming in. Leg E to the downside. Not a bad candle. Not a very big distance because it gap down so much. But we're watching it closely. Weekly chart is negative. And this is the first week that I'm going to be able to put a circle here with the stochastic, with the Magdy crossing negative. That's the first time since it crossed positive way back on the week of the eighth of February, way down in the 2650 area. Wow. So that's at least some of the techies I want to do. A lot of questions about coffee, sugar, wheat, corn, soybeans, the market, the VIX. The Taz Profile Scanner is the most revolutionary piece of trading software that you will ever try. Wouldn't you like to approach the markets with confidence? As you begin your trading day, it's likely that you'll be faced with lots of decisions. In order to make the best decision, the first thing you'll need is a strategy that will help you minimize your risks. 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Hear all of the TFNN shows, plus see all of the charts as they happen live and have access to archives of all of those charts. You can test drive the Tiger's Den absolutely free for 30 days and greatly enrich your knowledge of these markets and how to make your money work for you. Details on the Tiger's Den are on the front page of TFNN.com. TFNN has launched our brand new website. You can still visit us at the same TFNN.com URL, but when you do, you'll see a new and improved homepage with a much simpler navigation, whether you're watching Tiger TV live in high definition or just accessing your newsletter subscriptions. We even have new pricing in six months and yearly options. Check out the new TFNN.com now and experience all the upgrades. TFNN.com, educating investors. Call now toll free at 1-877-927-6648 internationally at 727-873-7618. In the middle of trading, in the middle of a show, I just covered, I thought I'd got the exact high of the balance today. And then I do it because I was doing the show, I had to cover. I'm pretty because it just keeps going down. But well, that's the way it is. So E-mini has to go. It's at 2762 right now, down 28. It needs to go to 2773 by two o'clock this afternoon. If it does that, that says, hey, you know what? The market's starting to work out what's going on here. But if we are still down very sharply, down to 240 right now, S&P is down 26. If the S&P, I'd say to subscribers some opening call that if the S&P is down, whoa, let me get the exact figure. Yesterday I said one o'clock, but it shouldn't be 130 is what I said to subscribers. And that was accurate because at 130, we were really shaky. Went down into plus 50, but then it started to fail. Let me see if I can find this. If you don't mind, I'm taking one moment here. Where was it? Where was it? What time did I come on this morning? Six something, right? Am I going to find it? I think I'd see it. I don't want to get out of context. So, all right, I'm not going to be able to get that right now. Oh, there it is. If the S&P today, ready attempts could keep failing, especially at 2.35 p.m. If the ES is minus 22s or more. Okay, so we're down minus 27. Now we've got two hours to go before that particular time frame. Okay, let's get to the nitty gritties here. I just want you to check no calls. Okay. I wanted to go through just really quickly because it's important. Look, sugar has finally had a little bit of a move off the low. This is a continuous contract at 11.98. It's made of legs, a peak C. So a peak B and it starts a leg C to the upside. One penny above 12.01. The high of the 29th of May starts a leg C. This is just the start of a move because the weekly and monthly don't look very good at all. But the question I had was, can I look at coffee? I'll get to all the other questions as well. But let me just do this. Coffee, the continuous contract is a buy mode. Remember I mentioned this the other day. I said, is it really good? I think we were somewhere around. I think it's broken out of the leg B to start a leg C. I said the MACD is acting very well. Stochastic is good. And the nine period expansion moving average of 96.71. 95.23 was the weekly pink. Here we are. Nine period expansion moving average. It needs to go above. And if it can do that, that's really good because the next level of resistance is 96.73. Wow. We have soared all the way to 102.75 yesterday. That's leg C. If there's no new high today, that becomes a peak C. But it looks strong enough that there should be a leg D. This is a single leg A up in the weekly chart. And the monthly chart is not even a leg A. I have to wait another month before I can call it a leg A. So that says I'm always worried about the single leg A because that can fail. Just make sure that 96 to 95 is key support over the next week. But I think this is a really good commodities. This is going to be a big thing over the weekend. I'll be doing it for my subscribers. I'm going to be doing a lot of work in terms of what we're looking at in the commodities. The reason why we have the DBA, which is where does that go? Did I type it? I typed into the data. DBA type it in right here on the trade station. The reason why we have DBA, the agricultural fund in the 15s is trading at 1680 right now is because I kept talking about it. Remember, I did an average show about a week ago. I think I go, it was a Friday week. I think it's all Thursday week. I did the show and I said, I love the way we just acting. And look what we just done. It is screened from the 400 email. Please check your mic. My mic's fine. There's nothing wrong with it. I don't know what's going on. Just let me know when the sound is back. This is really frustrating. I'm not sure why it's going on. Just I'm talking. Let me know when the sound is back. Back. Okay, good. So this intermittent is just really frustrating. I don't know what's going on about that. I'm not sure if it's on my side or wherever it is. So wheat is doing fabrics down three today. But wow, what a nice move. Look at soybeans. Soybeans was just in the doll rooms. In fact, I was talking about sugar and soybeans in the same breath. They got to break out. Well, it did break out. It went from a low of in the continuous contract of 791 to three days ago. It went to 892 and three quarters. Today it's down a little bit down one and a quarter at 888. And it looks like it wants to tackle legs. It looks like it wants to go into 918, the 200 period exponential moving average in the daily chart. And corn does corn. Corn is looking even better. Corn has gone from 343 round number low on the 13th of May, trading at 432. And just the other day, three days ago, it was trading at 438. And it looks like it wants to make a leg seed. It looks like it wants to go even higher. These are very big moves. And if the Fed was, oh, futures are down again. I'm on my show. What can I say? Frustrating dead. Corn is now, look to the future, sugar, SB. SB what? SB, give me a SBV 119. I'm just giving a guess. Yeah, SBV is a 1234. That has gone to a leg B. Oh, it's still in a leg B because for three days it's at the same high. 1233, 1233. Today's high is 1234. This is continuing leg B. You want to see 1247 by Tuesday of next week, Wednesday morning at the latest. If it doesn't do that, then it's going to be a legged. Hope that helps. Okay. Crude oil. I'm coming to bonds. I'm coming to everything here is important. Crude oil is plunging down 164 at 5494. Down a leg E in the daily. But that month, the weekly looks terrible. The monthly doesn't look very good. I'm worried because I've been talking about this for about a week now. I've been saying if crude oil starts to pull back further they've been going up. The IYT, the Transportation Index, as well as the Dow, as well as Crude Oil were going up together. Now they're coming down together. That synchronicity just tells me that there's kind of economic weakness that I've got to respect. Crude oil has to hold, well, I said 54 is a base. If it closes under 54, that's a real problem. Next thing I want to look at is the resistance is up in the 58 to 59 area. So here we go. For a few days I've been talking about the TLT. I've been saying yes, the TLT is extended. Yes, rates have become, have deco-shenda gone down precipitously. They haven't had big moves like this in quite a while. But at the same time, and I made a big deal about this when I was doing the talk the other day and when I did my show yesterday, I said in my work, the tradition, it just didn't quite work that way fully in the last big move down into December's lows. But normally you would see in the volatility of the market, volatility in stock market terms means the market's going down. They never say volatility when it's going up 300 points a day. They say volatility on the way down. So on the way down, when people get nervous, they tend to take money out of stocks just as we are building up cash positions over the last week or so. And they put it into the so-called safety of bonds. I say so-called because, you know, you're at risk. You're getting a big capital gain. But your dividend, which is really what you're trying to get, is shrinking. But actually I think they're putting money there for safety because at least when the market comes down, you've got a place that allows you to go somewhere. You remember, Tina, there is no alternative. I'll be back. Since 1984, Basil Chapman has been using the Chapman Wave methodology to advise traders of his expert market opinion. While originally hand-drawing charts from the late 1970s into the 1980s, Basil noticed that prices under most circumstances virtually always had a certain number of legs to the upside before declining sharply. Later, Basil found that computer software, which included the standard market technical indicators, enhanced the degree of accuracy in calling price turns as well as market trend calls. Thus was born the Chapman Wave sequence. Using the Chapman Wave methodology, along with other indicators, Basil Chapman advises his subscribers of his expert market opinion each market day with his opening call newsletter. Right now you can get a two-week free trial to the opening call, Basil's Daily Trading Newsletter, by visiting the front page of TFNN.com. Cancel at any time during that trial and pay absolutely nothing. Get your two-week free trial to Basil's newsletter of the opening call today by visiting TFNN.com. The path of least resistance is David White's Daily Trading Newsletter, and if you're looking for active trading ideas, then now is a perfect time for a 30-day free trial to this powerful Daily Trading Advisory Service. 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This segment is brought to you by Think or Swim. For more information, just click the Think or Swim banner on the front page of TFNN.com. Okay, we're back. So the TLT is up at $1.08 at 131.28. So what I was discussing is that if money keeps coming back, now I know there were quite a lot of people that I heard or read about that said yields have made some kind of a bottom and the TLT is making some kind of a top. And my contention is maybe if you're looking at the numbers, then you could say there's a case to be made. But if you're looking at the chart formation, the chart is saying the stochastic is flat. Those are what I was saying yesterday. At 93% is fresh, not reversing down. Yes, the on-balance volume is a little overboard. But so far, money is coming out. I mean, this is the way it looks like. Money comes out of stocks and goes into the bonds and the songs market is really weak. I think that's going to continue. So this monster move, look at this candle for the day. This is going to be for the week, for the month. This is the monthly candle. This is the biggest candle we've had. Yeah, to me visually, I'm just looking at the biggest I can ever recall in the shortest period of time, one month. So that's just saying, yes, there's a lot of nervousness going on. So that takes me to the next issue, which is what about the VIX index? So the VIX index, oh, up $1.39 at 18.69. I mean, give me a break. It should be at 22, 21. I mean, if it went to 23.38 on the 9th of May, when the news wasn't anywhere close to as so-called bad as we've got right now, what's going on here? So I got an email, maybe this sums it up. Paul says, you're as good as I'm, and he gets even larger letters, melting snowflake just at minute. So I'm not sure what that means because I've subscribed a short, Paul. I mean, anything can happen. If you're short, anything can happen. That's okay. But we also have some long positions so far, not all, but most of them have actually held pretty well. So all we're doing is dealing with the market here. So I guess you've got this big, deep whoosh that I'm about to explode or something, whatever. But I don't know, meltdown, it's fine if you're on the short side. But my bigger long-term thing is the quietness of the market in terms of dating people talking about the stock market. I've never, ever, and I really mean ever heard such quietness about the stock market as long as I've been involved in the market which is a very long time. So that says to me, we could get terribly bad news, et cetera, and the market got sharp, but there's still another big phase to come when it is. I'm not sure yet. I've got a feeling I know when it is, but right now it isn't. All right. So let's get on with it. So those are the questions for the GDS, the question in the den. Did I just do this? GDS has exploded above the, talking about exploding, above the 200-period exponential moving average. Yesterday it closes in the 2060 area. Today it's a 2169, up a point. It's up 91 cents from the close yesterday. 2168 up 4.41%. If you look at the weekly chart, it's done this before the technicals and the data are improving in hysterical way. I'm not happy about the way it, but a price is the price. And all I can say is that the real clue will be about next Wednesday or Thursday, Wednesday afternoon, Thursday morning. If we're looking at the GDX and the GDX is trading at 22.35 somewhere around there, nice deal of 22s, trying to tackle this downtrend line right here that'll be next week. So next week will be on that bar 22.16. So 22.35, I feel comfortable saying that. Instead of just being in the 21.30 area or under 21.18, saying this was just a momentary bout of gold buying out of fear, that's one thing. But if, and now let's just look at a couple of gold stocks. Let's look at GG. Is GG still around? No, GG is not gold, is it? I think that maybe isn't. Barric gold. Well, this is ABX. Barric gold is trading up nicely, up 56 cents. And let me look at my favorite ASA, which is the South African gold and precious metals. I think it's a fund. Went to A, B, C, D, and it just spiked up to an E. Now that's a very good action on the daily. But the weekly chart still needs a lot of work technically and the monthly chart, the same thing. So keep in mind, I wouldn't be surprised if gold is in play. Oh, let me go to Mike and Orman Beach. Mike, how are you? Basil, you're talking about what I just called in about the GDX. Good. My question is, yeah, I had an order in, I wanted to try to get into it yesterday, but my bi-limit order was a little too low at the time and I never got in. Do you think it's too late to get in now? Or would you wait for some kind of a short pullback and where do you think, even on an interday, like a 15-minute basis, where do you think a good entry point would be for the GDX? Okay, so I'm going to do this. And it's very interesting. For me, that's a really interesting call and I'll tell you why. Because yesterday you had specifics that you wanted to get in at a specific point and you were waiting for that. So that means that you had some very tight parameters. Now all of a sudden those tight parameters from yesterday, you're kind of saying, well, now it's done what I wanted, not only has it done what I wanted, it's like a rocket ship to the upside. Is this the move that I was expecting but it just wasn't happening because it kept attempting to rally and failing but now it's just broken out. So that's the question that is both in the den, I'm getting an email and I've got your call. So now that's what I'm going to say. Because of this tumultuous moment because even though the 5% so-called terrorists haven't gone into effect, I think it's mid-June that it does and even if this is a technique of Trump's, which we know he does, Trump always wants to win by 51%. He wants that 1% to be able to say, I won. It doesn't matter why, how, where, or whatever, that's been his modus operandi. So if this is a trading technique, on the other hand it does this MCA, the whole deal that was made between Mexico, Canada, and the United States. It puts that into a different sphere because it says, wait a minute, I thought we spent a year trying to get some kind of ruling. I thought everything was part, I think everything was going well, but now you've changed the rules. Well, you know the rules keep changing all the time. In fact, Mexico is busy changing the rules all the time. Nobody here talks about it, but they do. So if it's a technique, I want to see how the market is going to hold it. Why did I go on this little spiel right now? Because that applies to gold at this particular moment because as I was saying, money comes out of equities and goes into bonds for safety. So geopolitical risk because all of a sudden now gold is waking up as a geopolitical risk. So now I can answer the question differently to what I would have done yesterday. You know that yesterday I probably would have said to you, I don't see anything yet. It could happen and it always happens with gold very quickly, but I probably would have said to you and the dollars are holding well. If you want to tip toe in, that's fine. I'm almost sure that's what I would have said. But if silver right now, you see silver can't get out of its own way. It hasn't broken this major downtrend. So I'm looking at the gold thing as a it's like an insurance policy as if it was the VIX index. That's why I'm looking at gold. So I'm going to say to you, we're about to go to a break. Can you hold through the break? It's not. I'll just hang out to listen to you recording because I'm on my break at work. Start a small position. But I do have the same suspicion as you that it could be a currency of fear, you know, a big balance. Okay, I'll be talking about it. I'm going to say start a small position here at least to get something there. I'll be right back. Hi, folks. Tom O'Brien here. If you'd like to get my daily newsletter and market insights, then now is a great time to sign up for a 30-day free trial. Every morning by 9.30 I send out my morning letter to subscribers with market commentary on a variety of markets, currencies, and commodities to keep investors up-to-date on the day's trading action. Included in Market Insights are specific buy-and-sell recommendations for stocks, ETFs, and even options, which stops and price targets included for every trade in my newsletter. If you'd like to try my newsletter risk-free for 30 days, then head over to the front page of TFNN and you'll find Market Insights under Trading Newsletters. I use my years of trading experience to bisect and dissect the market every morning and give my subscribers the most important information they need to know for the day ahead. I even issue afternoon updates for my subscribers whenever warranted with important market action. I'm always scouring the market for the next great trading opportunity. Sign up for your 30-day free trial to my daily newsletter Market Insights today by visiting the front page of TFNN.com. Well, go get them, folks! It's amazing to think that Tom O'Brien started his weekly gold report 17 years ago with the first issue published April 7th, 2002, when gold was trading at under $300 per ounce. Gold peaked at more than $1,900 in 2011 and after spending many years consolidating at lower prices, gold may be poised for its next big run. 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I'm going to say even though it's a point away from, well it's over a point away from where you would want to get in, the fact is that it has changed directions. The MACD now is very strong. Stochastic is improving at 45%. I'm a little worried I don't like vertical spikes in the Stochastic in any time frame because they tend to fade quite quickly unless there's comparable price movement. Here there is. We're at the high of the day. So Mike, I'm going to say to you, yes start a position. You can't have the same amount as you had earlier on. You would have done yesterday but start a position and you're going to have to give this one really give it 21, 69 since a 3% risk on a smaller position. Here's why it seems to me that based on the geopolitical aspect that this is not going to be resolved over the weekend and even if the market thinks, you know what? We can live with this sort of thing. We lived with it with the tariffs. The market kept going high with the China tariffs. Maybe it will resolve the geopolitical aspect is the part that I think the gold is looking at right now and gold is not silver. Gold is exactly what I think. Exactly what I'm looking at is the geopolitical aspect. Silver is not. Silver gets dragged up. So we're talking about be very specific. Be long the GDX. I'm looking at gold itself. Let me go to the GC contract and see if you could do gold via the GLD B C. I think the GLD if you can go to the IAU it's the same price at 1248 that's playing gold much more directly and that weekly chart holding the 200 period moving average is a much better vehicle for my eye at least the way I'm looking at it. So if it's a choice, GDX right now trading up that's 1.22 and the GDX is up 4.38 the GDX is the gold stocks so you got to make a decision here you've got a much better percentage gain on the GDX than you do on the IAU and I'm not sure quite why that is it's up 15 cents oh because of the way the price point so my eyes is that's the vehicle that I would use is probably the IAU you'll ask me about the GDX and I'm going to say start a position let's look at again maybe Monday or Tuesday obviously I will be looking at it do my show but I'm thinking that the 120 minute chart has got some gaps at the 20 up 20 98 is the 200 moving average you've got a lot of support and I think it's active right now yes to GDX start the position not a full position because we don't know yet and what's it happening over the weekend but then you could add to it on pullbacks if we get if it sustains this move if it doesn't go underneath the gap low today of 21 19 by Wednesday of next week gold is going to be on fire and the dollar should be pulling back much sharper right now it's down the X Y's down it's only 27 pips at 97 88 they actually a little separate because the dollar to me represents the US economy which so far seems to be okay I think we could be going to recession of CTIS which is a syntax no it's holding down to $1.75 holding very well so yeah I'm looking at this as a geopolitical event and that's why the dollar is something a little bit separate you can't this the relationship here has been kind of separated for a while I've been talking about the dollar as the icon of American economy we're talking about now the GDX and gold being the geopolitical nervous barometer well I hope that's what I'm looking at so now the question is oh man oh bowing yeah let's just do those again bowing is down six at 243 you know bowing is out of my realm right now there's a lot going on with bowing I think they're in real trouble they can have big spikes to the upside but I also think probably lower highs and lower lows for a little while and then they'll be back but just going to take quite a bit to get them back next question I had is oh estimators you know I'm kind of impressed they're down 35 since they haven't taken out the lower three days ago of 98 46 they're trading at 99 28 oh well let me make it clear I'm only impressed that they aren't down three points that's all I'm not impressed at the chart formation I think the estimators have been telling us for a while I've been talking about this the billing and the price with just this at the greatest dichotomy I've seen in years of any instruments the difference between the price skyrocketing from 80 up 50% to 50% to 120.71 just on the 24th of April now down at the 99 level I think that's telling us that billing is going to still be slow for a while that probably towards the end of the year it'll start coming on strong again that's the way I'm looking at it but right now there's still a disparity and that disparity has to be resolved could be balances to 101 to 103 that's what I've been talking about so far nothing much but yeah you could see that but I think there's going to be a lot of testing but I still think the 97 to 95 area that should be really good support so it's time I think now more than price next question I had was oh where was this let me just run the scroll this back a bit oh the question about high grade copper was yesterday I'm sorry I didn't answer it where did I typed it again to the den HG high grade copper at 2.64 makes a peak in the Chapman wave up there at that high back on the week of the 19th of April goes to $3.00 now trading at 2.643 look at this we were talking channels before remember I showed you the silver channel look at this trend line look at this Chapman wave inside track buy the buy zone it's under the buy zone copper this is not good if I put it together remember I always like to do this just to give you the big broad aspect look at wood WOD wood is the ice is timber and forestry you have gone to a lower low in the monthly chart gone to a lower low obviously in the weekly chart huge art formation dreaded H pattern look at this failure pattern yep it's a little green candle even though it's down four cents today but this is not a good sign for the world economies as I look at it yet isolated different places but this is important to look at let's look at Caterpillar after all if the grains are starting to move Caterpillar at 120.0 down $1.75 right on the 200 period exponential moving average in the weekly chart monthly chart another dreaded H pattern and deer oh dear now deer has gone from 170 down to the other about 131 or 132 training right now to 139 so if wheat and the grains are starting to move let's keep our eye on this sector because this sector could be hurt by other things but if the farmers are going to be wanting to build to buy tractors and equipment these are the guys that should benefit so I don't see anything just yet but it's on my radar to say don't dismiss them they've been hammered part of the China deal but maybe the wheat and the United States economy see if we start building the United States economy and our own infrastructure this is this could be a good part and I'll be back down to 300, 261 buzzard trap and tiger technicians I'll be right back I'm Steve Rhodes author of Mastery Probability and for the last 12 months Timer Digest has been tracking my newsletter signals which have earned me the ranking as their number one market timer in the nation for the S&P 500 for the last 12, 6 and 3 months Timer Digest also ranks me as the number one market timer for gold as well the fact is markets can be timed I'll teach you the exact set of tools that I use that has transformed me into one of the best at what I do sign up for Mastery Probability today by clicking on the newsletter tab on the homepage of TFNN.com and get immediate access to workshops where I take you step by step how to use an extraordinary set of 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to detox Nicar hunter and gatherer ancestors found all their nutritional requirements for health in their wild environment but today our food sources no longer contain the vitamins, minerals and nutrients our bodies need to stay healthy and strong that's why we need primal edge daily nutrition it includes a special blend of ionics oil based vitamins, minerals, baddie and amino acids in an easy to use liquid form primal edge is powered by highly concentrated folic and humic acids nature's preferred delivery system they've been called miracle molecules because like sunlight air and water life cannot exist without them that's right Paige they ensure we receive all the nutrition we need to be healthy and thrive we take it every morning primal edge formulated and approved by Niko and Paige of living a primal lifestyle buy it today for just $89 click on the primal edge banner on the front page of TFNN.com hi folks this is Steve Rhodes stay tuned for another great hour of the trader's edge heard here at TFNN.com I've always said to you for the great program in coming up and look at this this is the TNX the 10 year surgery bond here see where we are 21 60 feet 2.163 we've been here before remember I drew this line in a while back to say hey wherever we are we've been here before unless it starts to break about 4.20 which should be really the TLT will really take tank if that happens but we've been here so the rates right now that's not the issue the issue is why are they why is money flowing into the TLT my explanation is because money is coming out of bonds into the security of the so-called safety of bonds so out of stocks into bonds why is the why the gold is spiked like it did it's spiked because there's a political fear right now that's my interpretation therefore holding this at least right now I think it's okay it spiked more than one would want if yesterday we're trying to get in today you're going to get in a point high on the GDX but hey that's just the way it is at least it's showing you the direction now is probably up for a little while so let's see how that goes and crude oil coming down is a big deal so check out my opening calls my dating newsletter I start sending out it's a dating user I send charts out almost every day and we are still in some long positions the best long that we've got now that is a pure long in terms of the trend might have changed and that's in the agricultural area so we're in the DBA which has done extremely well so it's 16.83 just that alone it's up 0.48 percent that's wheat corn and and soybean but who knows by next week we could say okay the farmers will have to wait there is no money now to help them out I don't know but it's the weather the waterlogged pastures I mean this is a serious stuff that's going on so that's the stance that we have still looking at the short side but if you look at the right now if I can go to the Dow yep the Dow you see the Dow right now it's holding this trend line but it's just gone a little lower it's down to 0.86 this is not good news because if the Dow closes really negatively then over the weekend you've got the foreign markets opening down so the futures on Sunday night it could be really bad so just be careful putting your stops have some cash that's what we've been talking about for a while just raise some cash have patience we'll get there have a wonderful weekend and I'll see you on Monday stay tuned for them for Steve I think David's still away and then you've got tumble dry have a wonderful weekend see you Monday