 Okay, traders, that's one o'clock, British summertime, nearly the end of that. If you can hear me loud and clear and you can see the tick mill welcome screen if you could have a Y in the chat box. So before we jump into today's content, as always, we want to add here to the risk disclaimers. As we know, trading any financial instrument carries an inherent amount of risk, and it is possible to lose more money than you necessarily have on deposit. And secondly, most importantly for today, any views expressed here by me are solely mine and they are not indicative, excuse me, or representative of tick mill UK or tick mill Europe limited. So those who are here for the first time, brief introduction to myself. Like I say, my name is Patrick Manley after I graduated from university and joined a city PLC consulting firm in London. A couple of years there learning the ropes left with some colleagues and went on to co-found and successfully exit a consulting startup post the merger in late 2004. I then moved on to explore my passion for markets with some chips to play with and some time on my hands I started day trading or more appropriately day gambling, the S&P 500. After some early beginners luck, I wrapped up some pretty solid gains and then some quite significant gains. However, as is often the case, the beginners luck ran out. And as the market phase started to change, I began to average down into losing positions, giving back all my gains and then ultimately experiencing a significant six-figure personal hit to my capital. So this was the gut wrenching and sobering experience is an understatement at best. At this point I had to stand back and figure out if it was feasible for me to make a living from the market. So I decided to get serious about trading and sought out a mentor with an excellent trading track record. Working with the mentor for 18 months to two years ago was a period during which I upped not just my technical game, researching and developing a strategy that suited my personality. I extensively back and forward tested the strategy and developed a rigorous risk management approach to underpin the strategy. But more importantly during this period of mentorship, I significantly developed my mental game and probably most important shift or watershed moment was where I moved from being a highly goal-orientated individual focused on financial gains to becoming purely process-orientated. So what does that actually mean? Well, it means I had to stop focusing on what I could make from the markets and start focusing solely on managing my mindset, which in turn would then allow me to consistently execute my trading strategy. Often during periods of negative feedback from the markets in the form of losing trades or drawdowns. Once however you become process-orientated and you have that professional trading mindset, you understand the true nature of trading being a numbers game in which you're simply playing the probabilities, you lose that emotional investment and that hellish emotional rollercoaster of living and dying by the outcome of individual trades. So I'm no longer concerned with the outcome of individual trades or even a small string of trades. My focus is on the next 100 trades because I know if I focus on excellency in execution, my edge will demonstrate itself over an extended series of outcomes. My multi-strategy approach has delivered profitable annual returns since 2008. Since 2013, I've also been managing investor capital through a managed account service delivering annual positive returns. I'm currently responsible for managing a multi-million dollar portfolio. Since 2010, I've also personally mentored over 100 traders of all experience levels from complete novices to former CME floor traders in developing the technical and mental skills to reap consistent returns from the markets. I've consulted for numerous brokers and trading education brands, contributing written content, webinars and live presentation content on a range of topics from market analysis to trading strategy development and execution. In addition to my fund management and mentoring, I'm also a resident market expert at Tick Mill where I have an exclusive relationship with them to provide a daily market outlook and a trade of the day. You can access those directly from the Tick Mill blog just by putting your email address in and that content will be delivered directly to your inbox so you get a flavour of how it is I view the markets and how I work with framing market data. The other, I guess, passion project for me is the head of trading and trade education for a leading trader education brand called FXcareerswap.com. At FXcareerswap, we're offering development and funding to retail trading talent. At FXcareerswap, we don't just develop retail traders, markets and trading strategy knowledge. We work on mindset development and through a structure program that culminates in managing the firm's capital at zero personal financial risk on a profit share basis. If any of you are interested in that, you can see there's a number down there. You can call or you can email info at FXcareerswap.com for more information about that program. So that gives you a flavour of where I'm coming from. Before we jump into the actual technical charts, let's take a look at some of the flow, sentiment and seasonalities that I like to pay attention to when we're looking at the market. So starting as always with the flow data and positioning data as collated by credit agricultural, you can see here that euro positioning in terms of longs are still stretched. We were not quite as high as we were a couple of weeks ago, but we're still stretched on the long side. So positioning firmly behind this euro move at the moment. And then on the other end of the extreme, much like last week, we've got the Swedish Krona. And in between, you can see varying levels of commitment to the commodity currencies, but the standout at the moment is really this euro flow and also a significant pickup in sterling bids. And for those who've been following market narratives this week, obviously we have Boris Johnson back-headling somewhat and deciding that the talks will continue with the EU counterparts and they're hoping now to pen a deal sometime in mid-November. So that move in sterling is also supported. This is from Credit Swiss. This is the G10 Spot FX trading team. These guys aren't the research guys at Credit Swiss. These are the guys who are paid or incentivised to provide insight to their trading clients, mainly hedge funds and institutions. And what's interesting here is the US dollar note here, well, much like everybody, they've been looking to sell the dollar on Raleigh, on Raleigh, sorry, but they're noticing the timing and the driver behind the current move hasn't really been led by risk and the assumption of this democratic clean sweep in the US. So price action to their mind looks like portfolioships or portfolio adjustments heading into the elections. Now, as we've seen and we're looking on the chart shortly, we've seen some pretty tight range trading in Spot FX. The volatility has come off with trading at very low levels of volatility at the moment and that makes for this very choppy price action that we've witnessed in some pairs. But what we're heading into obviously is these US elections and as noted here, this is the FX Crystal trading floor where I share updates and information with the trading team on a daily basis. FX volatility whilst low at the moment is certainly starting to scale up as we head into the elections. And what you get here from this information is you get predicted scope of movement in and around the elections. So we're looking in terms of the dollar yen anywhere from 121 to a 95 percent market range in terms of the dollar yen pair. We certainly haven't seen much of that in recent trade. And similarly here in the Euro, we're looking at about 113 picks of movement in the Aussie 106 to 125. And then in sterling, we're looking anywhere from 230 to 213. So what you're getting a sense of here is that as we head into the elections on November the third, we can expect volatility. And as such, you need to think about that in terms of your position sizing trading in and around the elections. If you're inclined to or your strategy or plan allows you to do that, you certainly want to be thinking in terms of an expansion in range. This volatility crush that we've experienced in recent weeks will explode. And this information is certainly underpinning that. Now I want to take a look at some seasonal factors to consider in terms of the dollar index and specifically in and around the presidential elections. The dollar has a tendency to strengthen 100 days after the presidential election. What we've got here is a fractal pattern. So an average of the election price action. And this is in the dollar index 100 days before and 300 days after the presidential election. So we can get a sense here that the dollar has the potential to either put in a low in and around the election or very shortly after that. And then we should see a period during which there should be some dollar strength in the market. And what I've got here is a seasonal chart. This shows the dollar index over the past 49 years. And I've specifically checked the election period. So what we've got here again is an aggregated average. Now it's interesting to know that this average is almost the inverse of this pattern. And certainly if we think about the price action we're seeing in the dollar at the moment, we're actually seeing the inverse of this dollar strength. What we've been witnessing is dollar weakness. So if we think in terms of inversion of this cycle, so instead of actually seeing a high into the elections, we actually have the potential to see a low into the elections or just past the elections in terms of the dollar. So this is a pattern that whilst I'm never going to necessarily trade this information per se, certainly I'm going to be paying attention to price action in the dollar, cognizant of the fact that we could see a dollar low come into play in and around these elections or just after them. Similarly here we have the euro dollar. The euro dollar pattern actually appears to suggest that we get a high in the euro dollar. So again a high in the euro dollar with a low in the dollar index because obviously they're trading inversely. So this would suggest that around the election we actually see a high in the euro dollar, a low in the dollar, let's take a look now at sterling. Similar story here, although in terms of sterling that high tends to come in a little bit later in terms of mid to late November and that again if we think in terms of the Brexit news that we're all expecting now is the idea that we're going to get a Brexit deal or certainly the way it's been positioned to the markets at the moment is that both parties to the negotiations feel there should be a deal come mid November and you can see how that would pretty much nicely tie in with a high in terms of sterling as well and the mechanism for that is that obviously the market or the market participants or should I say savvy market participants have a tendency to buy the rumour or sell the rumour and if you buy the rumour they sell the fact or if you sell the rumour why the fact so what does that mean in terms of trading well it means at the moment the market is anticipating we're going to get a deal and is bidding up sterling and what generally tends to happen then is that when we get that deal and it's announced that the market will sell into that good news so this again syncs up with this idea that we see a peak in terms of sterling heading into mid November. Dollar yen we're looking at again you've got to think in terms of the dollar yen as an inversion versus this this track so what we're looking for here in the dollar yen is a tradeable low in a minute I mean we're going to look at the dollar yen chart in a bit more detail as there's an interesting pattern developing there from a trading perspective but again thinking in terms of the dollar yen as an inversion similar to the dollar index we're looking for the dollar yen to make a low dollar index to make a low or potentially make a low. What it's suggesting at the moment is that gold would make a low and trade trade moderately higher now if we get a contested election I that we don't get a clear winner come November the third or November the fourth sorry. Then gold could actually could actually catch a safe haven bid as people look to to move out of risk assets so this idea that we could see some strength in gold combined with strength in the market. Whilst that confounds many less experienced traders because they're of the belief that if the dollar is going up then gold has to go down that isn't necessarily the case and certainly if you look at flows of recent periods there are numerous examples of where the dollar and gold moved in the same location as safe haven instrument so we could see this we could see a pop in terms of gold if the election is contested if it isn't then we may see a different story in terms of gold copper is copper again we think in terms of copper is driving the commodity currencies and again we're looking at an inversion here so we're looking for copper to potentially make a peak now into the election and again we'll take a look at the copper chart in a minute trading charts and there's an interesting pattern developing on copper and we're going to look at that in a minute at least crude oil so this pattern would suggest that crude obviously strengthens into the election I'm going to show you a technical setup in a minute that means we could see some weakness into the election obviously crude oil does have a tendency to trade inversely to the dollar because of crude being priced in dollars and last but not least just in terms of positioning of dollar index in the dollar index so that's just some sentiment flow seasonality information that you just want to bear in mind as we head into what's like to be a volatile period first chart this is the bitcoin chart so from a couple of weeks ago we looked at bitcoin volatility and we identified a statistical setup here that suggested we see some strength in bitcoin and we were looking for a break of this standing trend line we've got that and the initial target we had or we were looking at was 13,000 we pinged that yesterday so what I'm now looking for is some potential bullish consolidation here and ultimately move up to the top side of the channel now at 14,000 and then from there excuse me we could see a pullback back to test one second so from current levels we get the move up into the top side of the channel and then from there you can see a corrective pattern develop three wave move before looking for a base somewhere around these prior highs here at 12,500 for a potential new leg to the upside so that's certainly one to that I've got on my radar at the moment so that's bitcoin so let's start with the dollar index I've flagged a few charts here dollar index let's just get rid of this for a second so we can see the colored candles so the dollar index we were tracking this five wave pattern there was the potential last week when we saw these bullish reversals that we could make a move to test this 95-60 area didn't get any follow through we saw resistance again at the trend line and so what we've got now is a potential pivot here with as long as we hold below 93-92 we look for a test of 92-16 which is an equality move versus let's just draw this in so it's an equality move versus this swing here and we look for a test of the equality move now it's interesting to see if we can put us in terms of these prior lows here and the potential for a double bottom heading into the back end of November and those elections then if we're thinking in terms of the potential for some strength then we could see the dollar make an attempt at that 96 area that we've been looking at now conversely get rid of this and in the process of trying to at least hold this area which I'd highlighted before and if we did hold here then thinking about the equality move to the upside so we could still see a run into this 95-50 area if we hold these levels obviously at the moment the balance of probability suggests that we're going to see some a bit more downside here and the dollar does let's be under pressure and certainly if the US Congress and Senate can cobble together some type of fiscal stimulus deal that's probably going to weigh on the dollar so at the moment whilst we trade below 93 92 then we're looking for this 92-16 area to test through there then we're looking down towards the 90 handle on the downside for this fifth wave to complete and what we ideally would like to see that obviously into the elections here and then the potential for a dollar low or a tradeable correction at least in the dollar is what we'll be watching similar story so that's the broad dollar index versus six other currencies what we've got here now is the equal way to dollar index and we're holding this support area similar to the dollar but we've got a lot of work to do in terms of my trading strategies and my approach to the markets what I'm looking for to give me a signal in terms of strength and it's easier to see if I just bring this back is that for me to get a signal on the long side here I would need this candle to close back above the near term body weight average price which is a five period body weight average price and you can see we would need to close the weekly pivot for that to play out so whilst it's not impossible bounce probabilities at this moment with the way the momentum studies are orientated suggest we're probably going to lead to the downside here Swiss is in an interesting position it's looking now like we could get a test of this descending trend line support here so whilst we hold the 9167 for 8950 to get a test and from there we could consider that we might stage some type of three wave corrective recovery in terms of the swissie but this is going to be the key area 8950 is descending trend line support the swiss national bank are not going to be keen for this to be trading meaning free below 90 so keep an eye on that could see some interesting volatility in terms of the swissie I just referenced Dolien is actually sitting on its trend line support now and we're holding up just through the equality objective here and we're trying to stage a bit of a recovery here again it's got work to do in terms of giving me a signal today we need to trade back through 10517 but we'll have to see where we close like I say it's all really about the closes with my strategy in terms of signals and triggers so if we get a close back up towards this 10515 or through it even that would be a bullish signal for me and that would set up a move to test the downside sending trend line resistance back towards the 10650 and the equality objective there so we're tracking this pattern into the Euro so we broke out of the sending trend line resistance so we had this here took that through the highs we came just shy of the equality objective so we're looking for a test just above 119 and we've stalled out at the moment but if we can get into this 119 area I'll certainly pay attention to price action there because there's still the potential there that we complete this quality objective and then correct lower again in a what some people refer to as a double zigzag type pattern before moving higher there in terms of the Euro so really I'm watching to see how we respond just above 119 as a potential bull track the 78.6% retracement there as well this is a nice technical pattern Fibonacci set up into this just above 119 so keep an eye on that Euro yen nothing for me to do there now Stirling Swiss I've got an order in here I'm looking to go long Stirling Swiss through the overnight highs and the what I'm looking for there now is that we have completed this structure here and this sets us a quality objective let's get rid of that one just above the 120 90 area and again if we think in terms of the Fibonacci patterns here gets that 78.6% retracement so ultimately what I'm looking for with this is that we continue to consolidate bullish consolidation and also move up to this 120 90 area where I'll reassess now beauty of this pattern where you get these inside candles like this after a big range expansion is you can really get some excellent risk reward parameters in terms of stops so you can get your stop just below overnight lows and that gives you the risk rewards much more attractive than having to risk the candle here and setting yourself up to make new highs almost so again always thinking in terms of risk rewards with the setups the chart pattern can look like a Picasso but unless the risk rewards right and it's tight then it's going to be a pass in terms of a business opportunity so to speak or it's business to make money so that's an important concept to pay attention to sterling has run into the top side of this little channel it's been trading in and I wouldn't be surprised to see some consolidation here in sterling as we wait now for this next round of Brexit negotiations to commence sterling yen I also like sterling yen as well let's remove these so the sterling yen has a similar pattern if we think it has a potential for the dollar yen to maybe make a low here we could get a double driver on this and what we look for is so we've got a nice target area there so from this current level we look for a move up into that 140 and again thinking in terms of risk reward if we're looking at putting this trade on we want to see the highs get taken there and then we can get that nice risk reward in terms of at least a 2 to 1 risk reward ratio there in sterling yen so that's one I'm also eyeing I think we're doing the Aussie at the moment the Aussie Kiwi is sitting right at a projected trendline support so keep an eye on this one I might get a correction here in terms of the Aussie Kiwi and get a retest of this trendline support from below but certainly any move into here you will anticipate find some resistance and we'll potentially get another move down to get a third test of the trendline for a more meaningful correction may ensue Kiwi is Kiwi's just come into that head and shoulders area again and again if you think in terms of what I was saying about ranges I mean the Kiwi basically for the past well for October essentially is traded just shy just over 100 pit range whole of a month so this is indicative of heading into you know apparently a significant market event as with these US elections no one's going to get over positioned or extend themselves too much ahead of that but certainly pay attention to how we trade here if we can get up through this head and shoulders then that would be a very bullish development to my mind and we could be looking at meaningfully higher prices certainly up to this 70 level in terms of the Kiwi Kiwi Yen we've got a little trendline support here that it's holding we've got this descending trendline so I'd look for a bullish, I don't want to see a range expansion candle here that takes out this monthly pivot to get excited on the long side in terms of the Kiwi Yen I think in the Kiwi Swiss but I like this Kiwi card is a trade I'm in at the moment I shared it through the Tick Mill blog and again thinking just in terms of basic risk reward this big range expansion we have held the equality objective so we have this swing here versus this swing and you can see we pretty much held that to the pit we also have I don't have it on these charts but we have a weekly and monthly projected range support here and again just thinking in terms of risk reward we play the break of the overnight high we get a stop just in below the weekly pivot there on this one and again to get the 2-1 risk reward we really don't have to do too much work on the upside interestingly on that one it coincides with the descending trendline resistance here so we can squeeze a bit more out of that potentially let's get rid of that for a second so we could be looking up there in terms of measuring looking for potential swing scope we have this one here so we can reasonably expect to test this 8830 versus the last major swing to the upside having taken out these now and again just thinking always in terms of risk reward making sure that risk reward stacks up and making it reasonable versus putting on the trade here and thinking right we'll be up here next week and everything's roses you've got to really be thinking in terms of what you can reasonably expect out of the market versus recent price action is a way of managing your expectations I'm just going to finish up here with Copper because I talked about this so Copper has been in this descending trend channel support has been really driving the momentum that we've seen in commodity FX and now we are up here retesting the trend line the trend channel from below where we're having an issue at the moment we're certainly stalling out and we've also got this prior ascending trend line projected into the intersection of these two trend lines we're trading out the volatility resistance bands and we've got considerable divergence in terms of our momentum studies so watching Copper now because if we take out 313 here on the downside then I could see in relatively short order that we trade down to 290 at least to test the ascending trend line support again and maybe looking at this momentum here this momentum exhaustion we might have more work to do on the downside in terms of Copper to correct all of this and let it unwind before we try and build another leg to the upside so keeping on Copper we could be seeing a start here of a more pronounced correction certainly I'm going to bearish close today take out yesterday's lows at this candle I like Copper to trade lower into the elections as we talked about with the slides at the beginning so those are some of the trades I'm in some of the trades I'm watching and some of the patterns that I think are in play as we head into what is going to be a pivotal period in the markets so are there any questions if you want me to take a look at a pair I haven't covered you can type it into the chat and I'll take a look and see what we're looking at or alternatively you can unmute your microphone and you can speak to me via the audio equally if there aren't any questions and N in the chat box is just as helpful S&P so the S&P I'm looking for the S&P to test this ascending trend line support the monthly pivot from above and from there I think we could then get the we could then make a retest these price and potentially take them out as again that is going to be really dependent upon them at least announcing that they've got a deal here but what I've been looking for is we get in here and then deal announced and we trade up into the actual level I'm looking at is 3720 or 3740 and then from there I think we could we could get a pullback a more meaningful pullback should I say Cad Yen yeah I mean so you know this looks you know that's a one second I've lost my so I mean it looks bearish the only thing we've got here is the the psychic indicator is still bullish and we've potentially got the dollar Yen trading at what could be pretty pivotal support so for the Cad Yen to really roll over here you'd want to see the dollar Yen trading below this this trend line so that makes sense these Yens are basically being propped up at the moment by this this pattern here any other questions if there aren't an N in the chat box and I'll know that we're all on the same page and we'll wrap this one up here okay thanks very much everyone for your time and I hope you found this content useful and we'll reconvene same time next week thanks very much