 Welcome to Access to Trader, the number one community for those who are committed to taking control of their trading in order to achieve success, profitability, and longevity. Thank you for joining us. Here's Dan Shapiro to help you find your edge, master your process, and own your future. Hey guys, good morning everybody. Welcome to another edition of theaccesotrader.com weekend update show. Hope everybody is doing well. Hope everybody is having a wonderful spring weekend, getting some sun, getting some good food, some quality family, friends, and loved ones time. And hopefully your trading is coming along like everybody else in this world. It's all day to day, week to week. And again, we learn from our mistakes and hopefully cut out all the things that are continuing to handicap our development. If you are brand new to the channel, thank you. Welcome aboard. We invite you to like, subscribe, share all that good stuff that keeps the channel healthy so we can continue to bring you these non biased updates. So let's talk about it, right? Very exhausting week for investors and traders, right? A lot of information to digest. Pack W, again, another string of regional banks basically shutting off the lights, right? Midweek they came out. FDIC was basically taking control. Friday even they cut their dividend, you know, a lot of mess yet. FRC, Pack W, SIVB, it's countless. I think it's like number seven. The seven bank failures, Jake and Morgan swooped in, bought, you know, bought the FRC assets, very, very cheap, great, great return for their shareholders because see the continuous domino effect from these regional banks. The latest potential casualty was that WAL. If you guys remember WAL, there was a rumor that they came out with the same announcement that Pack W basically did in the middle of the week. And that basically said was, well, we're looking for a buyer, we're looking for any strategic alternatives. And that proved to at least from the company's point of view, that chatter proved to be false. So there's a lot of moving parts, a lot of it exhausted, frustrated, beaten up investors on these banks, traders who are trying to short them, trying to buy their dips, they're getting into a 12 round event with Mike Tyson. So a lot of stuff being thrown at the investors, especially in the banking space. We also saw a two day Fed meeting, you know, again exhausted, right? It's not, they don't just rip off the bandaid by a couple of comments, they have to extend it now. So you had a two day meeting at the end of the day, a 25 basis point rise in rates, not big of a surprise. We did get some a little bit of language from the Fed say, hey, look, we're monitoring inflation, our target goal is to get to 2% inflation, and we'll take it, you know, we'll take it case by case, month by month. You know, that, you know, again, that wasn't really great or good news for the bulls. And the biggest story again continues to be the leaders in the technology space. Again, we're starting, you know, we're about a week, two weeks away from getting rid of the major technology names into earnings, pretty much all of them are recorded. We still have NVIDIA that is on deck going into, I think in either this week or next week, we have to double check, but the scoreboard has been okay, right? That's the best way of saying the leaders have held their ground. You had Microsoft, the meta, you know, Tesla did disappoint, Netflix did disappoint, but they're actually recovering. Amazon initial move, a really good move into earnings and then, you know, the CEO spilled some sour milk on everybody. But overall, the market has been, you know, really good digesting technology names. And Apple was the latest one who came out with, you know, you can make it argument a decent quarter. iPhone sales have continued to be very, very impressive, considering how crappy the overall landscape is on the economy. People still continue to buy these 13, 14, $1,500 phones. But the most important part was, and this is kind of where I always played devil's advocate, you know, take off the rose-colored glasses. You know, haven't we seen this movie before, right? And this is where a lot of bold bear frustration is going to happen going into Monday's session. So let me, let me kind of explain. So we had this big run, right? As we can see, we've had this big run. We've been enjoying overall in 2023, a pretty huge run. We entered, we entered Friday's session up 18% on the QQQs, you know, while the Dow went red on Thursday night. So it wasn't a question of was there overall broader strength? Of course there is. I mean, again, 18% rise going into Friday's session is pretty impressive. But the continued debate, and I get it, right? The continued debate was, well, isn't it like four or five stocks that are holding up to NASDAQ? Okay, I could roll with that. I can make a case, both bull and bear, for that, you know, for that argument. Okay, that's cool. So today, the scoreboard is the scoreboard, wherever we close, that's fair value. But the one thing that it's not a slam dunk anymore is the anticipation and the four, you know, four conclusion that we are going to follow through. So if you can kind of indulge me here, right? So, you know, this was Microsoft's numbers. If you guys remember the market broke down, right, when Microsoft came out earnings, and the whole question was, was the market going to be saved by Microsoft? The next day, right, the next day, we had a really, really aggressive sell off. And we closed at the bottom of the range, right? That wasn't a great thing. And what happened after, if you assume the market was going to go to hell in a hand basket, the market started exploding back again, right? Exploding back again. And then meta came out with earnings. And then the question was, well, now the meta, right, is going to save the market. And what happened three days later, the market aggressively against sold off. So every single time for the last sequence going all the way back to March the fourth, right, you have a scenario here of, well, we're closing at the top of the range, and then we're failing. We're closing at the bottom of the range. And then we're rallying. We closed at the top of the range. We got a three day sell off only for events to happen. And granted, Friday, you had announcement coming from the FAC, at least it was chatter that banks would less than $10 billion in deposits were going to be exempt from the positive insurance. Obviously, you had a big debt cat bounce coming from all the banks. You also had Apple, again, saving the day for technology came out and they rallied as well, Shopify rallied as well, pretty much everything will get the individual pivots in a second. And, you know, we basically engulfed four days worth of selling in one day. You also had, you also had the jobs numbers, again, very, very tight labor market continues to kind of surface on the horizon. So you had a lot of data points. You had a lot of things to kind of think about and overthink about. But again, if this was years ago, and we closed, especially on a Friday at the top of the range, I would turn around go, I'm all in over the weekend, right? It just, it hasn't been that way, right? That's the thing. It hasn't been that way. And it's very, very naive to turn around, you know, right now it's something morning at 930 in the morning in the East Coast. It's very, very easy to turn around and say, well, this time is different. We're definitely going to follow through on Monday. Hey, my whole game plan is on the long side, right? So I'm hoping that's the case. But it's been, it's been really tough for the bulls or the bears to kind of get traction as soon as they close at the top of the range or they close at the bottom range. Is it going to be different this time around on Monday? We will see, right? We will see. We will have this, you know, we will have this conversation Monday night on the video. But again, to assume that we are going to follow through considering we have all this evidence of closing the top of the range fail and closing at the top of the range fail and closing at the bottom range rallying, closing at the bottom range rallying, right? That's why a lot of investors, a lot of traders have been, you know, pulling out the hairs, especially in the overnight market, then they can't understand how come the momentum is not playing out in that direction after clear close into strength and weakness. So again, I'm going into this week, definitely, definitely prepare to the upside, right? I mean, the way we close and the way a lot of these stocks close and looks great on the surface. But boy, oh boy, we've been here before. It's like being a spouse. It's but it's like being a spouse that's been cheated on three separate times. And the fourth time around your spouse come to you. I promised that was the last time that it will be different. Right? We don't we don't know that for sure. So obviously, we want to be prepared for everything going into Monday session. But again, on the surface, we did close as the highest flows in this whole formation that started all the way back to March the third. So again, we'll see we want to give the bulls the benefit of the doubt. But boy, oh boy, is it so easily, you know, easily conceivable, you know, we have some sort of news coming out at another bank in the next few hours, Monday morning, Monday pre market and the next thing you know, everything I'm saying, you know, we're look now we're looking at stocks crumbling back to the bottom of the range. That's been kind of the mantra of the market for the last month or so. So again, we will see if things are going to be different. But again, on the surface, things look great. Right? You know, Tesla finally came out of this channel. We've been talking about this and I butcher Tesla on Friday, but whatever it is what it is. You know, Tesla coming in coming out of a tight, tight channel here. This is the highest close in this whole formation. Watch Tesla for this week guys. Okay, keep an eye on this thing. If it confirmed the 20 day moving average and the market follows through, we could get a move to 75 76 I will not butcher this one. And I kind of I want to share my thoughts for all you guys in the webinar. I think where I kind of let this thing go prematurely on Friday. We'll talk about that Monday morning strategy. But if Tesla can get above this 20 day moving average, I do think this potential this thing squeezes back to 7677. Microsoft continues to be an absolute monster. Again, you had four days worth of selling this thing was about the fall for cliff and then Friday just absolutely exploded on the video woke up after you know, three aggressive days pulled back into the 20 day moving average pretty much engulfed three days worth of action. This thing's maybe a day away from waking up Shopify. Fantastic, fantastic quarter. Yesterday, follow through when absolutely ballistic even coin based right even coin base has been, you know, dead in the you know, debt to rights for what since, since for 18 it's all 12345678910 taught three weeks, three weeks they had a really, really good call deemed good quarter and the stock rally again. So you have a lot of a lot of feel good moments from Friday sessions trying to spill over into Monday we'll see what happened you know can Amazon rebound it's getting very very tight maybe gets above this channel starts going back to earnings highs. Meta has been you know, has been resting resting for about what for, you know, about two weeks now after its earnings and held a 10 day moving average is this thing going to finally wake up and reclaim the five day moving average again at the stage is set for the bulls to succeed right we close the top of the range. We're engulfing, at least for the most part, bad news on the banks you could tell because this is the highest close in this whole formation. So everything is set up perfectly for the bulls to rally, you know, can they do it right can they live with prosperity as they say, many times in the past can they, you know, now that they fell love, can they finally learn to live with love will say, no, we'll see what happens. But again, I wouldn't be shocked. Either way, if we started going down. But again, my game plan for Monday is definitely if we have a weaker open and that's about down 300. But if we have a weaker open, you know, in the Nasdaq down 4050 60 handles, anything that rallied anything that rallied strong, I'm looking to buy them into dips into rising 60 minutes support right the green, or above the previous channel and there's no better, you know, there's no better example of what I want to accomplish on Monday is a name like Apple Apple broke out again we'll get to the pivots in the second huge area. It broke out above the high from three days ago, took out opening range highs confirmed all that good stuff. And here's a perfect example if we get a slight open right slight red open on Monday, and the stock is down 60 cents 70 cents a dollar or whatever. You know, it is a perfect, you know, perfect example of a stock that could go into 60 minutes support right and full you guys and trade off the 60 minute channels. Here's a 60 minute support right. It goes into 60 minutes support. It holds a 60 minute support eager shorts late shorts get trapped goes right the green and starts attacking Friday's channel that would be ideal and there's a lot of names like that. That could fit that bill as well. So we're set up right we're set up technically. Is it going to follow through. I mean on paper it should right but again with this market we've been disappointed now for about a month and a half of continuation moves. As they say all the time, maybe this time, it's different. So we'll see. So let's talk about Friday's pivots at as you can imagine, everything went, you know, ballistic right I mean the market went nuts, the Qs went nuts, everything went nuts. Yeah, the dead cat bounces in the banks you had Apple's earnings put pushing everything up. You had, you know, you had Microsoft Nvidia yet everything under the sun went absolutely nuts as you can imagine it finally it finally felt good if you guys remember, you know, the updates from like Tuesday and Wednesday and Thursday. The market did nothing it was just contracting just sitting in a range and it's so difficult guys, especially for new traders to accept it the fact that sometimes the market when there's so many you know so many external factors it's going to sit in a range. If you have the discipline this is such a crucial part of trading. But if you have the discipline okay the absolute discipline to avoid those days and say look, there's nothing going on you know Tesla's trading at a 50 cent range that is trading this 80 cent right there's nothing going on if you can leave those days alone you have self control what's going to happen in time you're going to realize this hopefully sooner than later. But what's going to happen in time is those days are going to be much easier to let go so all that FOMO that you have that you have to trade because the markets open. That's going to go away and then all of a sudden that's replaced with something that I call Jomo it's the joy of missing out instead of the fear of missing out. And you understand it's the joy of missing out because you understand that the days that the markets contracting the market is resting so the market rests you rest when the market expands. That's when you expand with it and after two days of you know just just eye gouging action the market finally expanded again on all those notes that we had a couple of minutes ago with Apple and the banks and all that good stuff we had a really aggressive Broad market rally so let's talk about it right so here is the pivot we've been talking about Tesla tight for you know for about a week or so 166 to the upside 158 80 to the downside you know here's Tesla finally got above this channel again I'll share my thoughts on Monday it's kind of been bothering me how I kind of messed this up but I'll share my thoughts on Monday but finally got above you know I really messed up this trade I had a couple of coffee profit instead of really whatever we'll talk about on Monday. Anyway it got above this whole channel here finally went to the next supply. Watch Tesla again for a resumption on Monday or Monday or Tuesday if he could get above this 20 day supply I think it is a shot it starts stretching and filling in this gap all the way up to 176 which is the low from 410 so if all you guys better than I did a great job is there. Mara never got to 12 excuse me got to 1065 never triggered Amazon I still like this thing never triggered here's my big trade of the day I'm still have a runner overnight 171 daily and 171 47 after hours highs that turned out to be the pre market highs as well needs to confirm from more upside and Apple Apple when nuts really really great move Apple when absolutely nuts so here was so here was the whole 41 range here is the 41 range here is the 71 71 47 which was the after hours high it took out that after after hours high just went absolutely ballistic when all the way up to 74 great move just absolutely great move on Apple on the video again when nuts as well you can you see you can see the theme of the day in the video 279 upside 272 downside again you always have to be prepared from both sides of the market on the video finally got above this five day moving average was a 79 and just absolutely exploded went to 87 fifties this thing starts confirming Monday Tuesday if it starts confirming this upper Bollinger ban we should see back to the high of May 1st we'll see right we'll see the great move on the video even coinbase exploded 54 30 needs to build here was coin if you look at the 60 minute view why 54 30 was important it's this whole channel here right it's this whole channel here 54 54 11 was the high here 54 27 54 22 so got above the 54 30 just went out of its mind all the way up to 58 just an absolute monster move on coin shop when ballistic as well as shop 58 75 rejected three times that's on the 60 minute view guys again you can you will never understand those levels if you're not trading on the 60 minute view but so here's the 60 minute view right here's we got rejected once twice three times right once it got above and this is kind of what we talk about the sneaky pivot right a lot of you guys have always asked me if for fully guys are not in the webinar a lot of guys who always ask me what's the sneaky pivot what's the sneaky pivot it's not the top high it's not below it's a channel that's forming in the 60 minute base and you have usually have two or three reference points and here is a perfect example of it got rejected several times off the same level once it finally came through just absolutely exploded on a lot of guys caught Shopify as well on Microsoft when nuts towards the end of the day 309 20 needs to build and Mr. Softy went crazy Mr. Softy took out this whole channel and went to 12 I still like this thing for higher prices for this week as well and I believe that's it right I believe that's it so very good aggressive aggressive action on Friday there was also you know names like O&O and that finally woke up you know stuff like that but you know the stuff I got is kind of relevant but all in all market held very very well big broad market rally a lot of you guys I could say to speak for everybody who trace technology I think we we got a 400 pound rhinoceros off our shoulders just finally got some expansion towards end of the week we definitely appreciate it so the question is are we going to follow through now that we have love what are we going to do with it right guys God bless have an amazing amazing Sunday and God's help I will see you all tomorrow