 This is covering the spread part of the Fandall podcast network. I Don't think we could have asked for a much better Sunday football than what we got yesterday We got a competitive game for bucks versus lions and then to cap things off bills She's living up to the hype to the best games we've seen those teams play this entire year and to see another battle between those two very fun teams was a true Delight had the good game on Saturday to 49ers Packers get to watch Lamar Jackson workers magic in the first game. It was an awesome weekend It's that's up for a conference championship round where I like all four teams I think that all four teams that are here deserve to be here. They play well this entire year They got good offenses that are fun to watch some really fun defenses, too So pretty pumped about this weekend's game We're due for today's break down both those games outline what my numbers say about the two matchups Let you know where I see value for the conference championships over at Fandall Sports Book welcome on into covering the spread That's right here on the Fandall podcast network and Fandall research. My name is Jim Sonnis I am a managing editor of digital media for Fandall research here to preview the conference championship scheme and let Championship games let you know where I see value for this week over at Fandall Sports We'll dive in and break down both those games individually here in just one second First a reminder to make sure you're subscribed to covering the spread wherever you get your podcast tomorrow Ryan Williams will swing by We'll talk about some futures talk about the Super Bowl markets and then break down Super Bowl MVP stuff as well Get his thoughts on these games this weekend We got more stuff coming up this weekend with a doctor at Feng breaking down the games on Thursday player props with the JJ Zachary's on Friday all right here in the covering the spread podcast seeds So make sure you're subscribed wherever you get your podcast You're like what you hear leave us a five star rating on Apple podcast or Spotify or thumbs up on the Fandall YouTube page You can also find us over on Fandall TV plus when it comes to the NFL playoffs You've got to win one game at a time But when you bet the NFL playoffs on Fandall one game can mean a lot of wins Fandall America's number one sportsbook has all your favorite bets like the money line and spread and then there's all sorts of Prop bets like quarterback passing yards or who will score the first touchdown plus every day There is an NFL playoff game Fandall is giving all customers a no-sweat same game parlay That means when you combine all your bets for a chance at a bigger payday You'll get bonus bets back if your SGP doesn't win Make every moment more with Fandall an official sportsbook partner of the NFL must be 21 plus in present and select states Minimum three leg parlay required refund issued as non-patrable bonus bets Which expire seven days after a seat max refund $5 unless otherwise specified Restrictions apply see terms that sportsbook dot Fandall dot com Fandall is offering online sports wagering in Kansas under an agreement with Kansas Dark Casino LLC gambling problem call 100 gambler Orphous a Fandall dot com slash RG in Colorado, Iowa, Kentucky, Michigan, New Jersey, Ohio Pennsylvania Illinois, Tennessee, Virginia and Vermont call one hundred next step or text next step to 533 4 to in Arizona 1 8 8 7 8 7 8 9 7777 or visit ccpg.org Slash chat connect it one hundred nine with an Indiana one hundred five two two forty seven hundred in Wyoming, Kansas Or visit KS gambling health commie, Kansas one eight seven seven seven seven zero stop in Louisiana Visit MD gambling health Oregon, Maryland one hundred gambler net in West Virginia Let's take a look now at the first game on a Sunday That is each chiefs at the Ravens right now Fandall sportsbook The Ravens are three and a half point favorites even money on the minus three and a half The plus three and a half in the cheese side is minus 122 total in this game is at 44 and a half right now at Fandall sportsbook I've currently got 10 miles per hour wind projected for this game out in Baltimore That keeps the total pretty low for me as do the defenses frankly I love both these offenses. They're both very fun to watch But I think these two passing defenses might be the best in football I think the Browns would be up there, but like the cheese are sneakily At least it's hot five passing defense with where things stand right now So it's not a disrespect to the offenses as much as it is an appreciation of how good both of these defense They're playing right now This game does not project like a shootout. I've got it The total is 44 and a half at Fandall. I've got a forty three point five if we're to creep up during the week I'd be willing to bite honestly Probably not gonna cross through more key numbers because 45 and 46 not huge key numbers by to me next Next one up there is 47 if we're to get to 47 it'd be an easy under for me, but I might consider it 46 to honestly, but not sure we get that and Probably laying off the total in this game on the cheese side We've gotten to Patrick Mahomes best games this entire year during the playoffs and that Dolphins game He averaged point two five passing net expected points per drop back that of course is number fires EPA metric and 0.07 is league average Mahomes against the Dolphins point two five and that was at the time his best mark since week 12 But against the bills last night. He was at point three one so to playoff games to respectable but banged-up defenses and They played very well It kind of does seem even when you count for the injuries as if the chiefs have Cured a lot of their ills that they had offensively and the running game is very effective right now So if you're talking about this from a matchup perspective against Baltimore They're gonna have more answers for this Baltimore defense and what the Texans did because they can run the football and the Texans Very much cannot so I love watching Mahomes It's reminded us how good he can be this post season It's been a delight to have that version of Mahomes that version of this offense. I should say back in our lives But the Ravens are doing the same thing against the Texans the Mar Jackson was a demon as a rusher And if he does if he does decide to run he does decide to be aggressive Then this offense can reach a new level of upside And he's more willing to do that in the playoffs where he's not worried about Preserving himself for these exact games. It is win or go home And we saw the impact of that against the Texans where when he is willing to run and be aggressive there It can make this offense Look really really good. They may get Mark Andrews back this week. I honestly don't care a ton about that personally He's solid, but he's also not a big needle in the mover for me So not a huge concern there personally Want to see on Marlon Humphrey if he's able to come back after missing last week's game So two really fun offenses two very good defenses should be a blast of a game to watch Spread is a three and a half right now It's even money to lay that with the Ravens which says to me we may see this game get to three Which is a more likely move for this game than a getting to four So if you want to bet Baltimore on the spread and lay the points, I'd hold out I want to push on three if I'm gonna if I'm gonna do that So I'd hold out see if you can get a three which I think we will potentially later on this week And especially given I expect a pretty low scoring or relatively low scoring game every half point does matter So I'd hold off you want to have Baltimore see if you can get the three later on this week And despite how much I love the cheese and as much as it hurts me I do show value in the Ravens in this game I had them as a four point seven point favorite right now if it were to get to three That's enough where I would bite in and lay the lay the points, but I also show value in the Ravens money line That's a minus 172 right now the implied odds there 63.2% so keep that lodged in the back of your mind here for a second But I show value in the Ravens spread and willing to bet that we'll circle back to what that means In a bit but for the spread specifically if you want to bet that I'd be patient and see if you get a three Later on this week now again keep mine the Ravens money line It just moved to 174, but still potentially a value there Let's talk about the Lions and the 49ers right now at faddle sportsbook the 49ers are six and a half point favorites total in this game is 50 and a half right now at faddle sportsbook over there is minus 115 Right now biggest question mark is Devo Samuel I'm kind of assuming he will not go Adam Schefter reporting this morning that Samuel about 5050 to play in this game I'm guessing we're not gonna know until Sunday. I can almost guarantee you the cadence of this will be He's gonna sit out practice Wednesday Thursday. He'll be limited Friday And then we'll get a shifty bomb maybe on Saturday night, although even that is kind of doubtful I've got it mark is out right now given that it's a shoulder He had the same he had a shoulder injury earlier on this year missed two games as a result That's not a hundred percent out things will play out But just keep in mind that I'm assuming right now as if Devo Samuel will not play in this game When speed to Santa Clara five miles per hour That's more normal for this venue than what we saw last week where there was some wind There was some rain don't see rain the forecast right now though that could change I had the over for that game which did not work out finished on 45 points I had over 50 in that one, but I want to go back to the over here once again I have it at 52.9 right now the pace in this game will not be high because the 49ers are very slow But Detroit is at least faster than the Packers are that was two of the slowest teams of football I thought the over was still the right play, but They were two pretty slow teams paces above average for Detroit and their defense encourages Teams to throw the ball against them. That's good for over is to see they're going to be a passing completion or the clock Will stop so I think we're gonna see the Niners be a bit more pass-heavy here I do think the Lions will be able to put up some points on their side You they do fall behind so you're looking at this offense here And I think they'll either score some points 51 is a big key number We're getting a win on that with the over 50 and a half right now minus 115 is you know Is is you're paying a decent tax there, but overall there is enough value for me to buy it as it is So I do like the over at 50 and a half for the Lions and the 49ers And as mentioned, I do think the Lions will be able to score a bit here There are the third-ranked offense by my numbers after including data from last week San Francisco is first so keep that in mind, but Detroit it's efficient passing Let's say they get behind the concern with Jared golf as always if he's under pressure He's not gonna be as efficient which is true of all quarterbacks. We're being honest here But like it can be especially true for golf. That's a valid concern to bring up But this offensive line is pretty good And I think that they should be able to at least keep him Upright enough to still be able to move the ball and the crowd in Santa Clara is not necessarily one that will Torch and offense his ability to communicate like you'd see in Buffalo can city places like that even to Detroit Honestly, I don't think that's gonna be as big of an issue here as it will be for some other spots So I think Detroit will be able to hold there into the bargain from a scoring perspective on offense I just don't think it will be enough to win in this game. You know, I love my guide Jared golf But the model has the Niners favored by 7.1 points here That's pretty much in line with the market because the minus six and half is minus 118 So I'm not seeing enough to lay the points here at the 49ers But I also deal do feel confident in saying I will not be on Detroit in this game We're already seeing some sevens out there So if you like Detroit, you're higher than than I am I'd wait see if you get a seven later on the plus six and a half is minus 104 Right now at fan dual sports book so I'd hold off you like the Lions wait to see if you can get a seven later on You could be worried about the potential for no Debo The offense for the Niners did struggle without Debo both last week during that Packers game And earlier on this year when Debo is out they had to you know, they had two losses but in those games they also did not have Trent Williams and The offense was still efficient in those games like Brock Purdy played well in those games They just had some turnovers work against them So I think the Trent Williams factor is the bigger reason why their offense really lagged in those games And then this past week they lost Debo mid game and like they are putting Joanne Jennings in the backfield And like I think that kind of shows you how much their game plan depends on Debo's losing him mid game is going to put a Put a stop to that offense pretty quickly But they still managed to claw their way back and win that game So I'm a downgrade for the Niners in with no Debo Because it's a very good player and a very fun player to watch I just think we need to be careful not to go too far with that downgrade when factoring it in So I don't see any value in the spread right now with where it stands But I do show value on the money line That's a minus three ten plot odds are seventy five point six percent either around seventy seven percent That's enough to be worth considering. So as we go back to our previous discussion I should value on the Ravens money line It's now minus one seventy four still enough to show value there and the Niners money line is minus three ten If you to if you are to pair those two together at Vandals sportsbook You're sitting at a parlay of plus one oh eight And now I want to be careful here because there are a lot of people who when they're betting will pair Big favorites together in order to get longer odds I think that is very flawed because The parlay accounts for assuming the odds are fair and if the odds are not fair You're not going to get as big of a boost as you deserve By adding that leg to the parlay So for me to do this I want to see value in each of the individual legs because I know I'm not getting as big enough discount to justify doing it otherwise So I need to show value in both in order to do this and here I actually do show value in both So if you pair them together at Vandals sportsbook as mentioned you get to plus one oh eight the implied odds of plus one oh eights are 48 point one percent in my model I've got them at fifty one point eight percent for both of those teams to win That's a little bit less than four percentage points of value. That's enough for me to bet it However got to keep in mind. This is conference championship week and there are a lot of different ways to bet things So you could go with the two money lines together What you want to make sure you're doing though is checking this tap here at Vandals sportsbook because you'll sometimes see a Number move and it's reflected in one mark but not reflected in another. So you want to go to the Super Bowl 58 I think that's the Roman numeral number 58. Sure. We'll go with that. You want to make sure you check Every market to make sure you're getting the best number If you go to Vandals sportsbook and check out Super Bowl 58 matchup bets right now Ravens versus Niners is plus one ten. That's the exact same bet as what we had before But we're getting a slightly better odds That's going to change throughout the week because every small change in the the Ravens or the Niners money line Will influence that parlay together. So what I would do is check out both Um and see what the better bet is if you can get at least even money On the parlayed of money lines or in this map this this uh, this market where you're doing Ravens versus Niners i'd be okay taking that So Make sure you're checking all markets. Make sure you're getting the best price you can possibly get within this exact same sportsbook It's just situation where you want to make sure you're aware of all the odds because I think they just want round numbers Over here. So putting it up plus 108 wouldn't make a ton of sense So just make sure you're being aware that there are different ways to bet the exact same market And you want to make sure you are finding the correct path for doing so So again showing value in the Ravens right now showing value in the 49ers and I think that you want to Pair them together get the best route. That's at least what I'm seeing on my end personally Got to decide if you agree with that if you agree with both those links together If you agree with one but not the other that individually you can definitely go that way and step or for me personally for this week The two bets I like are the Ravens versus 49ers matchup in the Super Bowl Which is plus 110 if annual sportsbook and then the over on 50 and a half at minus 115 for the lions and the 49ers But overall, I think we should have two really really fun games. Those teams have been juggernauts this whole year So The best I love jerry golf and patrick mahomes and it's going to stink through it against them I do think that is the the right value play for this weekend Let's dig in now and recap what we had last week here on the show Of course more discussion around the conference championships coming up later on this week with our Chow the ryan tomorrow or chat with dr. Ed fang on thursday and of course to jj on friday as well But let's recap recommendations here from last week on the show beginning with dr. Ed fang Who was with us on thursday breaking down all four games you can find ed on twitter at the power I could check out his work at the power rank dot com ed's one bet where he saw good value for this week Wasn't the cheese plus two and a half which is even money at fan dual sportsbook And of course the cheese won that game outright. So good call by ed liking the cheese against the bills I I like the bills in that game initially. I was hoping I'd get minus 110 never got there though It's data minus 122 the entire week for the bill side. So never got to a spot where I could pull the trigger personally and That turned out okay So being stringent in price shopping being disciplined with making sure you're getting the best number did benefit me there So and ed was on the right side of this one. So cheese plus two and a half and even money a winner for ed We had jj zack racing on with us on friday to talk some player props find jj on twitter at late round qb Check him out at late round dot com and the late round fantasy football podcast and jj's magic with touchdown bets came back to us In the conference championship week. He had three touchdown bets that he liked Those were adult and concave at plus 270. Isaiah likely had plus 200 and tucker craft at plus 500 Two of the three won both likely and craft scored Likely only a couple catches but hey, you don't need it more than one to catch a touchdown bet And then craft scored at five to one despite a very very tough matchup JJ liked the route numbers for craft the previous week and those held firm here again So got the two winners there no win with concave to plus 270 But uh, obviously a profit via the other two two yardage bets were patrick mahomes over 26 and a half rushing yards Minus one and 14 finished with 19 there from a home So no win there and then he had rishad white under 53 and a half rushing yards minus 114 White finished with 55. So uh a couple losses there for the yard and stuff But the touchdown bets more than made up for it. So good calls by jj there once again The touchdown magic has returned find jj on twitter at late round qb We talked to me pl on friday with austin cast confide him on twitter austin cast He is a senior editor us editor for us. You're a fan of research The first one for austin was the brentford money line, which is minus 115 That was a tight match back and forth brentford was tied For a long portion of that game and then scored late to get the win at minus 115 So winner there for austin also on saturday He had bukayu sasaka at minus 125 to score or assist and This team went nuts and at one point saka was credited with an assist in this game But that goal is rated later ruled to be an own goal. So the assist was reversed They put up a lot of points, but saka not unfortunately not involved So couldn't get the winner there a bit of a tough one to have it be switched to an own goal In this out on the assist score or assist prop there for saka Final one was sheffield united money line at plus 240 and they gave it a run man They were they were I think tied One one and then they went down to one they even equalized it to to get to get it to two two But then couldn't get the winner across So it was a draw which means the loss because this was a three-way money line where a tie Was an option so couldn't get there a plus 240 But hey, they were competitive gave it a run for sure So a good call by austin but no win there So one and two week overall for match week 21 for austin including last week's recommendations four and two so Good calls by austin across match week 21. We're going back here on the show again on friday One and one week for me here on the podcast. I had a couple of totals I like for the saturday games got good movements, but uh only a one-on-one finish I had the texans and ravens under 45 and a half at minus 115 That went down to 43 and a half at one point closing 44 and a half and finished on 44 points So I went there for that one or might have been 45 no 44 points Yeah, 34 10 so 44 points for ravens 49 or for ravens versus texans got the win with that one The loss was as mentioned before 49 versus packers I had over 50 at minus 110 went up to 50 and a half pretty quickly and stayed there throughout the entire week, but um Just couldn't get a lot of points in that game. There were some injuries, of course some Interceptions things like that, but that happens for sure I was betting the over on a high number which I'm doing again this week So you kind of know what you're getting into there, but you know a loss is a loss regardless So one and one week for me and we'll see if you can get back in the winning column this week with those two bets That is all that we have here for today on covering the spread I'm excited to talk more about these very fun games throughout the rest of this week back again Tomorrow with ryan williams taking a look at some futures And then of course more shows coming up throughout this week to get those as they are posted Make sure you're subscribed to covering the spread wherever you get your podcast You can also find us on the fandom youtube page and over on fan dual tv plus if you like what you hear Leave us a thumbs up on youtube or give us a five star rating and have a podcast or over on spotify You can find me on twitter at jim saunas I am on threads at jim dot saunas and you can follow fan dual research on twitter at fan dual research Want to thank you all for tuning in for today. Good luck to you your bets across monday back again tomorrow talking some futures with ryan williams This has been covering the spread right here on the fan dual podcast network