 What's up guys, this is Alex from Xtrades back to you with another weekly trade ideas list. I hope everybody had a wonderful trading week last week. And finally, we did have a week off of event risk. This week we are back on track with more event risk. We do have the core CPI, we have regular CPI and also core CPI year over year. So we do have the CPI data coming out this week on Tuesday, February 14th. This could be a crazy week once again, just like the FMC week. This is another big market mover. You can see Monday we don't have any economic data coming out. Tuesday is the big day. Wednesday we do have retail sales, maybe give an insight to how the consumer is doing, Empire State Manufacturing Index, Industrial Production Index. We do have initial jobless claims on Thursday, February 16th as well, continuing jobless claims as well, the PPI, Producer Price Index, that's also another somewhat of a market mover. I wouldn't say it's a huge market mover, but it is something that can cause volatility. So now that we covered our economic calendar for the week, let's go ahead and get into our first setup here, looking at WBA Walgreens, which we've had on the video before. It's holding that same trend line that we covered before. We got test one, test two, came for test three, holding up test three, almost tested it right here, but it still held the overall trend. When we had WBA calls last time, they did work very well. So we do have it on watch once again. Same idea, same demand zone, same trend line. This time maybe just a different price target because you did make a new high up here at $37.96. So ideally that would be the same price target where you'd see maybe a mover up to there, see resistance about there. One thing you can also watch on this is the daily 50 EMA. You can see it's right here that could act as short term resistance as well. Make sure you keep an eye on the MACD, it is still in a positive signal. If you do see a signal flash to a cell or a negative crossover to the downside, that could be an indication maybe not to get into it yet. So that's where WBA looks pretty good here. I would say just make sure it does hold that trend line, make sure demand is showing a nice reaction, make sure the MACD is holding just like I said, and also watch for that 50 EMA. But otherwise it does look like you have a decent shot up to $37.96. Next we're going into MCD, McDonald's Corporation, just honestly one of my favorite recession stocks. This stock does not really get affected much despite economic downturn because people still buy fast food regardless. So we can see McDonald's here is holding a 0.68% return on the day from Friday, minus the fact that index is closed flat basically, there's a lot of high growth getting slammed. You can see in our recession proof sectors here, we do have XLB, which is healthcare, we got XLP, consumer staples, and we also have the XLU, which is utilities, all holding up very green despite a flat close index across the board. So with that in mind, I really like McDonald's here because it is holding this 259.51 low. It's 200 EMA. One thing you do have going against you is negative MACD signal, it's something to keep an eye on. But otherwise you are holding this general area of support. So if you do take calls on this, which I'm personally looking for upside, you keep your stop loss below the low because they probably break that if it went under back test and try to go lower, assuming that the daily 200 EMA doesn't hold. With that stop loss in mind, I would say as long as it's holding over this low, looks really good for a counter trend reversal back up to this little 38.2% This is a 267.98. There's another fib right here. I wouldn't really say this is a resistance though, but you can clearly see a area of resistance here where it, you know, you have one resistance here, came up again, tested again, another resistance, kind of like a double top, just really not like a huge double top or anything. So just keep an eye on that area. If it does get up there, maybe take profit about there. If it does indeed reach, but otherwise this looks good for a counter trend reversal. Just make sure you keep that stop loss under 259.50, maybe even slightly under just so you don't get tapped out by algorithms, market makers, because they'll take it slightly below the low and then they'll jack it right back up. So just make sure you're careful with that. Look at that calls on MCD. Next, we're going into GE, general electric. So the GE here you can see is breaking the short-term uptrend line. I got test one, test two. I had a test three, finally broke it, came up, back test, rejection off the area. You do have a negative MACD signal. So we're going to be looking at puts on this one. We had our two calls set up. So we got WBA, McDonald's. Now we're looking at puts for these last three. And our first one here is general electric. You can see it's breaking the uptrend. I would just say we can see a move down to 79.47 and 75.67. Those are your two areas of short-term support. You know, if it comes down there, probably try to curl up about there. If it gets under, you do have a straight flush zone down to this area in the 75s. You can kind of argue too, this is kind of like a rising wedge of some sort. The top trend line only has two tests, so it's not really like a confirmed trend line or anything yet. If you watch my videos, you know, usually you want to see them have three tests. So if you drew this over right here, I mean, it's not as clean, but that would give it three tests and kind of like a rising wedge looking for. But otherwise either way, it's breaking that uptrend line. So this could flush lower. Another thing that I see is declining volume. So you can see a heavy buying, really nice uptrend, volumes all above the average right here. And then finally starting to consolidate. You can see volume dropping off heavy. So this is having a lack of buyers and sellers. One thing that I could see is that since it's getting the lack of activity, they could get lack of support and go ahead and start breaking the supports. Just to make sure it gets under seventy nine forty seven first. And that would be your confirmation down to the lower support. If you do want to just set an alert, we could right click and there's breaking support, we just add it right there, hit create. And we can wait for that to trigger. Once that triggers, that doesn't give you a nice little flush zone down to that level like I was saying earlier. That's for GE. We're looking at puts next. We're going into LDS. This is Las Vegas Sands, the, you know, consumer services, casinos and gaming puts on this because you see this trend line here, this longer term trend line to get test one, test two, came out for test three. Finally, got that large rejection. You do have a closing under the previous week low on the weekly candle. It's another reversal signal, in my opinion, you get this really ugly weekly candle as well as on the daily here. You could see it is double topping. You could even argue a triple top. You got top one, top two, top three. Ideally, you want to see it get under fifty six sixty nine, which is that support and then I can start, you know, testing these little base areas right here. If you didn't want to wait for it to get under that fifty six sixty nine before taking puts, it is a very good confirmation level and that could take you back down to the moving averages. Another thing it has right here is this uptrend line. It's only got two tests on this uptrend. Usually a trend line is going to make a third and that's where it tries to validate and continue upward. So that would be the ideal price target. If it just pulls into there, you'd have a nice little short term trade down to the trend line. And with this week, obviously, you know, going into Tuesday, you only have one day, you know, before you do have that event risk. I personally, I went cash. So I'm all cash right now. I'm waiting for the CPI period. And then, you know, starting Wednesday, if it seems like it wants to form another trend and start looking at swing trades again. So this week we're going to be focusing mainly on day trades until after Tuesday and then Wednesday, maybe start scaling into swings, assuming the trend gets formed. The event risk is just too, it's too high. There's just too much at stake, you know, just holding overnight with options into such a big data report. It's less risk and you will, you know, have a clear mind sleeping at night that, you know, you're not swinging this heavy position into, you know, a coin toss, basically with data. So basically I've been avoiding data reports like the plague and just, you know, day trading the few days into them. And then afterwards, once it gets out of the way, you know, I'll start sizing into swing trades and stuff like that. That's for LVS where they're going to put some this really nice rejection off the third trend line test where it can have another move down into the uptrend line down here. And you saw the uptrend line on the daily. It looks a little bit more steep on the weekly, still pretty steep on this, but if it comes down, there's a good chance it will hold up. So just make sure you take profit around there, assuming it does go ahead and fall. And for our last one, another put trade, we're looking at Netflix here. You see, you do have a confirmed top pattern because it finally broke the top support. So you got test one, test two, test three, you do have like a triple top going right here, also breaking, you know, the support. So once it breaks the base, that is a confirmed double top. So if you look at a classic top pattern, double top, triple top, most people think you would just take it as soon as it hits the resistance. That's how a lot of people will get screwed because they'll buy up here and then they'll end up taking it higher. It's a still an uptrend. If you want to make sure that the, you know, the pattern does get formed officially, you want to make sure that neckline breaks first. Like you see in this example on this website here. Once it breaks the neckline, that is your trade. If you do want to take something countertrend, that is risky. So, you know, just know the risks when you're taking it at at the top directly, rather than waiting for the support to break, but ideally you just want to see it break down. You see the back test, and then you'll see it go lower. So with Netflix here, you want to see the same thing. You just want to see it staying under the support, back test general area, and then it will go lower. Another thing Netflix has is this little small gap here. So you got a gap that could fill. Also, you do have the daily 50 EMA right here. It'll probably try to hold up about there. So my ideal price target, you know, would be down here probably after the gap fill or at least at the 50 EMA. We'll probably try to make support and continue to hold the uptrend. So really nice top pattern here. Looks good for puts. Really, really relative weakness on Friday. I mean, you know, with the spy closing up point two, three and QQQ only closing down, you know, a little bit. You got Netflix down here about 4%, which is just brutal. So this is just selling off like a bunch of high growth stocks that also had a similar fate on Friday. A lot of high growth sold off very hard. And you can just see, like with the speculative mania after Jerome Powell meeting, basically, you know, endorsing another bull rally for the short term, rather than talking down the markets, you can see that speculation is starting to come to the end a little bit. So you just got to be careful with these don't buy tops, buy dips. Next, we're going into the spy. And last week, we were focused on this Jackson Hole supplies. This is from when Powell went to Jackson Hole, Wyoming. A lot of the Fed members that go up there, they talk economics and they do broadcasts alive. And the reason why I had this in focus is because this day led to such a huge selling balance. And you can see once price returned, it did have that similar rejection, not as brutal, but it did have a pretty decent rejection still and it, you know, rejected twice. If you go to the daily here, I mean, the tested once came up again, rejected, came up again, rejected. So you just got multiple rejections. And another thing with spy here, we do have the MACD crossing to the downside. So this is the first sell signal since January. Friday the 6th. And that is a decent signal, in my opinion, that the momentum could be shifting here. The MACD is not anything to like live and die by, but it is a decent indicator. A lot of other traders and algorithms, they react to it as well. And it's kind of just like a self-fulfilling prophecy, right? If somebody sees it, they think it's going to work. And you will see that reflected in the price action, kind of like mass psychology. So another thing with spy here to break the short term uptrend. So I'm going to load more bearish neutral here. Obviously with CPI, it's going to be a coin toss. You know, I might be able to post a little bit more of my opinion after Tuesday, because I mean, our technicals can just get thrown out the window here. So just remember that. Another thing with spy here to close under this daily candle resistance. And this is from the December CPI report. So I thought that was interesting. So it's right back under that. We're in the same spot. I mean, it's just very interesting that, you know, it looks like we've moved all this way, but really we're in the same area as the Jackson Hole speech from August, the same area from the December CPI, all that. So it's just, it's crazy because it looks like we're moving huge, but we're really not. And you know, it could be like this for another year or so until the Fed starts cutting rates, until inflation comes down and things are a little bit more pretty. It's a kangaroo market. It's not a bear or bull market. Every time we put in a new low, it bounces. Every time we get up, it starts selling. And that gives us, that gets us range bound. And you can see just all the, all the bunny hopping here is just crazy. And that's why they call it a kangaroo market. So you may be asking, what am I seeing on spy this week personally, I think it's got a chance down to test this demand zones about as low as I could put us for now. I'll have to see how it reacts to demand. That's also the 200 EMA area and also the 50 EMA area where it is slowly trying to cross back over, which could be great because we never had the 50 and the 200 cross since this area right here received the yellow cross. And that was in May, 2022. So it's been months since we had this. It'd be really interesting to see that golden cross back to the upside. Could be a false signal given the economic conditions, but it would be an interesting one that algorithms and other traders could react to. But still for right now, 50 is trading under the 200 overall. We're looking more bearish neutral just because we're under the Jackson Hole Supply still. And then at the same time, you know, we do have this demand below, so I can't put you too much lower. So no position for me on the spy. You do have that argument down to demand and the 200 EMA area. Next, we're going into the QQQ. So last week, we were focused on this 311-03. Once they got up there, it found strong resistance. Pretty much how I expected it to. If you saw the video, I told you I was getting into puts about 40 days out, give you a little time, you know, let the market hash it out. You know, maybe it was going to bounce or something. So you want that safety. And that's what we did. They did pay and I took profit, made about 37 percent and took profit in my general area where I was hoping for, which was, you know, like the 300 area to 296. 88, which is this resistance right here. So the QQQ puts worked really good. You can see it backtesting this 296.88 and the 200 EMA. So honestly, on tech, it looks a little more bullish neutral because it can hold up this base right here and head back up. If it gets below that, you do have that test down to demand. A similar fate that, you know, we saw on the spy, it does have that room down to demand. And same thing for QQQ. It's, you know, it does have a similar fate, assuming it does stay under this if it breaks. And similarly to spy, you do have this uptrend line breaking. You can see on the spy that it did break as well. It really didn't like sell off super hard once it broke, but you do have that, you know, maybe shift in momentum. MacD is still positive on the QQQ on the daily, which is good. Also holding over the daily 200 EMA, still holding this base. So obviously I do have to lean a little more bullish neutral. You can't really count the bulls out here, regardless of the couple day sell off. Overall, we're still in the uptrend. If I add this other EMA cloud, which is the nine and 21 day moving averages, you can see it's still holding the cloud, still holding, you know, general uptrend. So, you know, you can't be overly bearish here. Same thing with the spy. We do need to see it get under 296.88 for any confirmation of more negative selling. So no position for me on the QQQ. Like I said, I'm going to wait for Tuesday. Once Wednesday, you know, shows me maybe a trend forming something that, you know, looks a little bit more stable after the report. Then, you know, I will jump into something and hold it for a couple of days, like I usually do. Otherwise, for day traders, that is your levels of focus just at 296.88. Same thing as last week. Last week, our two levels were just the 311.03 and the 296.88. And you can see exactly why. Once we rejected it, came on down to 296.88 bounced right off that and, you know, closed only down a little bit, not too bad. I thought that was interesting that our, you know, levels still held to the same levels as long as it holds over 296.88. You do have a, you do have a good argument for a shot back up to 311.03. If 296.88 breaks and the 200.00 EMA breaks, you do have that argument down to demand, like I said, and also the 50.00 EBA, if that doesn't hold. Next, we're going into IWM. So with IWM here, it did break that inverse head and shoulders or cup and handle pattern, whatever you want to call it. It was bullish. But last week, I did say it looked a little bit overextended and you would want to wait for it to get up into supply to take puts, maybe it didn't reach supply. I'd actually topped out even before that. So I didn't take any position on this. I didn't trade it at all just because it really didn't get up into supply. So once it got up there, I was going to, you know, maybe look at puts and, you know, have a nice tradable setup, but either way, bears still got paid pretty good. So it topped out a little bit early, but it did come back to test our same 189.86 level, which comes from this area right here. So the 189.86 comes from this, comes from that, and also comes from that general area as well. And you can see why it's holding up. There's a nice base form, a nice little base candle. Macadie is negative. So the bulls do have that going against them. If it gets back under 189.86, there is a good chance it can flush down to the 200 EMA right there, or the 50 EMA as well. Otherwise, this is just a back test where the bulls and it can hold up here and head back up to, you know, the 199 to 200 area where I mean, that's as high as I can push you because you do that. We do have that supply. So I have to see that getting taken out first before putting you any higher as well as for the bears. I can't put you any lower unless it gets under that one and then 86 and you can see exactly why you got test one, test two, basically a test three. So you do have strong resistance acting as new support VIX. So last week, we were focused on this falling wedge and you could see exactly why. And we actually saw this before it even broke out. And what did I say? I said that, you know, once it gets into consolidation like this for such a long period, eventually you are going to see a move and it will start spooking people into selling stocks. It did exactly that. And I would argue that this is a pretty good reason why we pulled back as well as the 10 year yields in the dollar popping. This was just another pretty much another stab in the stomach for bulls. So with the VIX, I really want to see this continued breakout here. I really think you have a good argument up to the 200 EMA, at least. You can see it's rejecting the 50, which it has prior. You get a rejection here, get another rejection, another rejection. And now you can see a rejection candle here. So Matthew is still positive for the bears, which looks pretty good. If you know your bear strong stocks, as long as the signal holds, I think we could see continued pressure to the upside and the volatility index. We go into the data here. So last week, we added that 25 20 for the 2022 to 2023 average close. It dropped about 0.09. So it's dropped down to 25 11, with our last five days of closing. You can see it tested our moving average, just like it tested in the trading moving average for the 50 EMA. If you are bearish on stocks, you do want to get him back over that 50 and heading up to the 200 bulls. I mean, you really need a back under 20, period. That 20 level is just a crazy psychological level. It always has been. So just make sure, you know, not getting overly bullish until it's back under 20, breaking back under the 19 level, which comes from this bears, you still need to see it over that 50 to head up to the 200. And that is pretty much your levels for the week. But otherwise, it's still breaking out of this wedge. I would say volatility has a good case of coming back. This could be giving a early hint into how the CPI report will be, or it could be a fake out. Love to see others really know guessing on the data, you know, unless you're an insider, unless you, you know, work at the BLS or whoever does the CPI data. So yeah, like I said, that the 10 year yields as well as the VIX and the dollar popping, they give a pretty good indication of volatility coming back. You can see the 10 year yields you're breaking out as well. Similar to how the VIX is breaking out. This is, you know, it looks kind of similar. So volatility and yields just kind of go hand in hand lately. You know, if yields are spiking bonds are selling. And that also means, you know, pressure in the VIX as well. That could be why we saw that pop in the VIX along with the dollar. Next we're going into the DXYs is the US dollar index. Last week, pretty much just chopped in this range after having a pretty big pop. Once I got over that COVID peak, you could see it did go up another 0.62%, which is a pretty, pretty decent move. It's enough to make stocks sell. That's for sure. Anything above 0.3 I've noticed is a good reason, you know, for the market to start getting spooked. So once it gets over that 0.3 markets when, you know, you will start seeing pressure to the downside of stocks lately. Right now it's just testing this downtrend line. If it does, you know, break out and head up to the 200 that is going to send stocks lower to be honest, unless it chooses to ignore the US dollar. But I highly doubt it will. With that 200 EMA in focus, you also do have this peak right here at the 105.63. It comes from this small rejection candle right here. That's about as high as I could put you. If it does break out, I would need to see how it reacts to those first. Otherwise, you know, if you are bullish stocks, you do have a good argument that it could reject here and head back below the 2020 covid peak and also back down to the one on once. If you haven't seen my videos before and don't know what the covid peak is, we've been covering it for a couple weeks now. It comes from this 2020 peak right here where eventually we did sell off, you know, due to stimulus money, federal reserve, you know, came in cut rates to basically near zero. And we did have that stock market boom. So I think this level is very important. And I think it's kind of signaling something that it's break back over. And also holding that one to one 29 base. So it's the same thing, same levels on higher timeframes. So I just wanted to point that out if you're new to the videos. Otherwise, like I said, we do have this downtrend line in focus will need to see getting over or rejecting off of it. So I'd say this is an inflection point for the US dollar and could make for an interesting week. But I hope you guys enjoyed this video. I'm going to get this chopped up, edit in and get it out to y'all make sure you tune in to the next one. And also if you didn't know and you can't watch the videos because you don't have time, go to the options watch list channel or xtrade discord. You will see a written report there on the five setups. We don't go into the indexes on the written report, just to keep it short and easy. But you will see the five setups that we covered and I put if I'm you know looking at calls or puts on there for you know a directional bias. So tune in to the next one. I love you guys make sure you like comment and subscribe to our extra YouTube channel. And I'm out.