 Hello and welcome to CMC Markets on Thursday the 16th of November and this quick preview of the week beginning the 20th of November. Now the key major events for this coming week are twofold. We have the UK Autumn Budget which is on Wednesday at 12.30 and we've also got the latest Federal Reserve Minutes from the November meeting. Now while the Fed Minutes aren't likely to throw up too much in the way of surprises I think the UK Budget could give some sort of indication as to the government spending plans over the course of the next few months against the backdrop of a slightly weakening economy. Before we get on to that I'm going to have a quick look at some of the market behaviour particularly in stock markets over the course of the last few days and what we've seen I think is a little bit of equity market weakness start starting to exhibit itself in a lot of the major indices. If we start with the Germany 30 the DAX 30 we're on calls for potentially the second it's second weekly decline in a row and I think what's particularly interesting about this particular chart ladies and gentlemen is the fact that we've seen a significant bearish reversal last week and there's distinct prospects that we could see a potentially second negative week this week as well. What's important about this particular market is that we've seen a bearish weekly reversal or a key reversal day now typically that tends to happen at the end of a very long uptrends and acts as a warning that maybe we could be in line for a little bit of profit-taking so I'll be paying particular attention in this instance to this support level here it's around about 12,875 12,870 you can round it up or round it down however you see fit but I think if we do break below that particular level which also coincides with the summer highs then we could see I think a significant correction lower. You could also argue this is potentially a weak left shoulder quite a nice big head here so we could start to form a little bit of a right shoulder here on the right hand side at the moment we are looking as if we could get a little bit of consolidation above 12,875 so we'll be paying particular attention to that also if we look at the Euro stocks 50 again that is displaying similar characteristics again it's found support around about the July and August highs slightly later than was the case with respect to the DAX but more importantly I think if we look at the weekly chart again it's showing a similar sort of reversal pattern in the context of the weekly candle a bearish engulfing week which typically tends to be a negative signal and ultimately in the case of this particular chart the Euro stocks 50 I'll be looking for that three and a half thousand area on the support level to potentially act as a significant arbiter of whether or not we rally off that level or start to break below it break below the 200 day moving average on this particular chart and trend lower we've also been seeing a little bit of weakness in the Nikkei 225 so I think if we watch the DAX and we watch the Nikkei 225 in conjunction with each other for indications of whether or not we might start to see a little bit of a breakdown a little bit of profit-taking as we head into the end of November and potentially year-end because if you actually look at where we were at the beginning of the year where we are now we're still in excess of 12 to 15% up on the year for both of these indices and if you're a portfolio manager I think if you're looking to take a little bit of money off the table now is potentially probably the best time to do it seeing a little bit of a bullish reversal here so we may get a little bit of a pullback on the Nikkei 225 but if these charts are any indication and the way that this is looking there's but we could potentially have seen the peaks in the very short term on the DAX and the Nikkei 225 brings me on to this week's key events obviously I talked about the UK budget UK autumn budget at the beginning of this video I think this is going to be the key this is going to be the key market event for this week obviously along with the FOMC minutes but I think what's going to be particularly interesting is what the office of budget responsibility does with respect to its GDP forecasts for not only this year but next year as well now in March the OBR had a GDP forecast of this year of 2% it's quite likely they're going to have to bring that down in line with the Bank of England's GDP forecast of 1.7 and the EU's GDP forecast are around about 1.5 I think what we can I think I think what we can say is GDP for the UK in 2017 is likely to come in between 1.5 and 1.7 percent so I don't expect to see any surprises there the inflation forecast again that's probably something to keep a very close eye on as we as we look at term what the office budget responsibilities forecast are for the economy but I think the main focus will be on what the Chancellor has to say with respect to what he plans to do to try and support the economy and what is likely to be a very very difficult period now there's been an awful lot of he's come under an awful lot of pressure to make some significant changes obviously business rates is one area which the Chancellor could focus on small businesses have been complaining about the onerous effects of some of the increases in small business rates so we could see him take some measures there he's also coming under pressure to scrap the public sector pay cap so again we could see some market reaction to that in terms of the guilt market if he starts to loosen the strings loosen the purse strings maybe more than perhaps the market thinks is wise you can also look at the housing market look at potential measures with respect to stamp duty which I think now is starting to act as a significant inhibitor for first time buyers in getting their foot on the housing ladder but I think more importantly I think there will be we'll be looking for action I think on planning regulations because ultimately I think that's where the log jam is is really I think that's where the major log jam is so if we could see some full relaxation of planning regulations that could be a significant boom to the house building sector which has taken a little bit of a hit in recent days in the in the in the round I think in terms of the effects on on the pound we are still in this uptrend that we've been in since the beginning of the year as you can see at the beginning of 2017 we're trading around about 120 we're now around about 132 trading in a little bit of a sideways consolidation with solid support around about 130 30 as we can see from this chart here it's also where the 100 day moving average is but it's also decent resistance around about 130 2.5 133 I don't really expect that to change too much I don't expect to see too much downside I don't really expect to see too much in the way of upside I think in terms of the euro sterling that could be that could be where we could see some moves because we also have flash PMI we have the latest PMIs from France and Germany from the manufacturing sectors and these will be early indications for these were the final indications for October and we we found from the October numbers there was a slight moderation from the Q3 numbers which were very very good and it'll be interesting to see whether the flash November numbers which are due out during the week whether or not there's further moderation there but again what we've got here with respect to euro sterling significant resistance above 90 we can see that from here we can see that from these two peaks here and we can see it once again here in the November peak that we saw earlier this week but we also have fairly decent support in and around 88 and a half and and the 88 level but I think it's going to take something significant to really push through 90 and I would I think given the length of this upper shadow here this this star doji we're probably likely to see a little bit of a drift back down towards the range lows of earlier in the month also got the Fed minutes not really expecting too much from those I think the the the minutes could acknowledge the disruptions from the hurricanes and the start of the balance sheet reduction will they give an insight into the mindset of Fed officials as to how the US economy is doing will they add any weight to the fact that we're pretty much nailed on to get a Fed rate hike in December I don't think they're really going to add that too much to the overall assessment of where the US dollar is going and certainly in the context of where the US dollar is going against the yen we're still pretty much in a range and likely to remain so for quite some time so that's it for this week thanks very much for listening Spunk of Houston talking to you from CMC Markets