 The following is a presentation of TFNN. The morning markets kickoff with your host Tommy O'Brien. Good Monday morning everybody I'm Tommy O'Brien coming to you live from TFNN 8.30 AM Monday morning 60 minutes to go until the start of the trading week and we got markets in positive territory yet again to kick things off after quite a charge positive on Friday. Right now Nasdaq futures actually negative though negative seven points at 98.01 you get the S&P up 20 points that's a solid six tenths percent trading at 32.06 Dow futures up to 67 a solid 1% even at 27,339 we have oil pulling back a bit negative 36 cents at 39.19 you had oil above $40 at one point the 10 year yield pretty calm today 0.912% 10 year yielding 0.91% quite a week in the markets quite a week in yields last week we'll start things off we'll start off with a chart of the S&P you see the acceleration on Friday. We were already higher 8.30 AM we get the non-farm payroll number the economy added more than 2 million jobs as opposed to a decline of anywhere between about 2 million and 8 million jobs the market was trading about 3133 we finished the day out at about 3186 made it as high as right where we are right now which is pretty interesting. So the market the highs at about 1130 we make it above 3200 to a high of 32110 last night the futures open we make it to 3211 and about 730 last night quite a trading range we make it down to a low I mean you're talking about almost 30 S&P points from high to low and then again from low to high we go from 3183 at 3 in the morning we're trading at 32110 right up at that upper boundary pretty remarkable action NASDAQ 100 trading 9809 last night we were as high as 9875 that market that indices pulling back a bit the Dow charging higher to 27,350 Boeing up today Boeing getting an upgrade Boeing why not let's jump over it because as you see the long term this bar here 786 that's in relation to the entire move that we've had for COVID let's just put this for some context pretty remarkable the acceleration the Dow has had you go back to May 14th which is where all these markets really started accelerating ahead of that May jobs report you got like 13 or 14 days out of 15 or 16 positive and all the markets and the Dow I mean remarkable that you're talking about almost 5,000 Dow points that we've added since May 14th the low there 22,704 on May 14th we're now trading with the 27 handle 27,350 on those Dow futures jumping over to some of the commodities gold contract there's your daily on gold now quite quite a tough day on Friday pulling back but you look at this we're right at the bottom end of this range that we've been in since about beginning of April to last two months the high end of that range about 1770 1775 maybe you could even call it 1750 the lower end of that range where all they line up basically 1686 kind of right where we were on this bar right now for some short term analysis there's Friday's action spiking all the way to 1671 last night we were at 1680 just made it above 1700 briefly on gold currently trading 1695 crude heck of a run for crude last week talk about an acceleration from 34 on Monday we finished the week in almost 40 last night futures climbing to above $40 a sell-off begins at about nine o'clock we're right down where we were at those lows approximately nine o'clock the actual little 3881 we're trading at 3905 right now and there's your gold contract 1695 the lowest 1671 silver I wanted to pull up quite a little rebound for silver from where we were on Friday 1737 we're already almost 50 cents above that level 1783 silver up a solid 2% or 35 pennies in the green notes and bonds there's your pullback as we saw higher yields lower prices you can see we're kind of right where we were on Friday the spike low 136 22 we're trading at 130 704 and why not Bitcoin 98 20 pretty calm action last week we spiked higher on Tuesday spiked lower later in the day on Tuesday Bitcoin staying right around 10,000 right now terms of what else we have happening in the market jumping around the stocks with action so Boeing as I mentioned we'll pull up the charts seaport global securities initiated coverage of the jet maker with a buy 277 price target saying the worst of the pandemic related risk is now priced in and the Boeing's free cash flow could peak at a higher rate than is now generally expected now Boeing getting a bit on multiple fronts this morning because you got all the airlines they list here along with the cruises travel all other stocks extending last week's gains as the lockdowns ease and demand begins to pick up today I know New York New York City opening back up on their phase one June 8th their phase one Florida's been open for a while Florida seeing a spike in cases maybe we'll pull that up later but New York back to business today airlines trading higher Boeing shares talk about talk about a week for Boeing recently BA look at that one I mean we were just at 144 a week ago and we're going to open at 223 in Boeing and you see the acceleration we're almost $20 I mean that's almost like 10% right $20 and 54 cents would be 10% higher we closed at 205 we were as high as 225 and we're sitting still with a bid above 223 on Boeing this morning so that's putting a big bid in the Dow especially checking in on the VIX as this market just chugs higher we got a 23 handle on the VIX on Friday at the beginning of the day on that jobs number fear getting sucked out of the market that premium getting sucked out of the market 2485 on the VIX this morning jumping back to action so there were the airlines let's jump through some of the airlines I mean these stocks will start with American said American came out I mean you're talking about not even just last week from Thursday you just went from $11 and change there we go on American so that is yes Thursday early Thursday morning seven in the morning I believe American comes out and says they had 2300 routes going in the month of maybe April that was up to 4000 in May I may be confusing the months that may be May to June but nonetheless 2300 to 4000 flights and guess what they're going to be at 40 capacity next month the way they were in 2019 it extends on the basic economic optimism to 2280 on Friday but this stock you know as the as the market paired some of the gains we went from 23 to 18 you're down $5 from that high basically so be wary of some of these airlines because just because they're going to have those flights I'm not sure everyone's going to be able to book in reservations to be traveling all over the country at least anywhere near where we were say January or February before COVID even existed Delta though up a bit from 3416 we're looking 3638 we covered American Southwest up a bit as well you see the run they had from 32 to 40 jeb blue shares JBL you from under $10 to start last week to about 15 I mean that's a 50% of pop on some of those stocks they've gotten hammered but the percentage jumps and some of the cruises man a little bit of optimism finally for carnival maybe I don't know why I would not be willing to take that risk right now there's a lot of other great opportunities in this market folks then to be looking for that with carnival but guess what you just got rewarded from $15 last week to 25 this week NCLE each I believe it is no region yes it is from about 17 to 25 so that hitting the Dow especially with the Dow about 250 points Dow was a leger for a while but not anymore and even the S&Ps to put it in some context there's your rise making up lost ground December you know for the year the S&Ps almost flat we're almost right there at 3193 as you see and this morning we're trading at 3208 not bad to be even for 2020 right with everything else going on stay tuned folks we'll come back see what else we have on tap for Monday trading we got a Fed meeting this week as well many of our new listeners have heard about the tiger's den the tiger's den is a lively community where professional traders and investors can meet exchange ideas and information in a comfortable moderated atmosphere hear all of the TFN shows plus see all the charts as they happen live and have access to archives of 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Stanley talking about a steepening yield curve interesting graphic in here to check out those steepening yield curve so this is talking about the 10-year yield versus three years hit its highest since 2017 and that's above 60 basis points and you could see as this you know we see the market charging higher I'm the next one of the next stories is going to be New York City phase one reopening and potential v-shaped recovery economy charging higher the bank added a bet on a spread between a three-year and 10-year yields widening to the existing so-called steepener trade a wage on a five-year 30-year spreads that's after an unexpected surge in the payrolls just cool to check out the acceleration there and that is talking about maybe some potential growth with the 10-year versus that three-year some charts to take a look at so why not we'll jump to this story first so phase one in New York opening today phase one talking about construction manufacturing non-essential retail and wholesale merchants retails limited to delivery curbside and in-store pickup in Florida we've had that for a while I believe so different spaces different requirements New York hardest hit of one of the areas if not the hardest in the whole country phase two not quite there yet hair salons barber shops in store retail offices professional services like finance and insurance phase three you're talking about restaurants and other food service business open for dine in and then phase four you're talking schools museums cinemas theaters and other recreational businesses so that hit New York today and then talking about this was pretty cool some graphics in terms of where the country is for reopening so this is directions all right apple maps interesting stuff when you look at driving compared to the 20 January 13 2020 baseline data is for the US driving and walking back to basically almost a you know pre-covid levels but transit not quite now I believe yet yet New York transit shutdown for a while you know public transportation if you don't have to take it some people may be avoiding it that is a strong graphic though folks if we're back to the same amount of driving the same amount of walking that we were previous then we're going to be doing something in terms of the economy restaurant bookings not quite as promising but that is definitely an uptick year over year change and seated diners at restaurants on the open table network I use open table myself so a good indicator of how people book and reservations on a national level you see the drop off to basically everything closed we've now reclaimed 30% maybe of where it was you go from zero you wipe out everything we're now down 70% it looks like on restaurant bookings hotel occupancy rate I was surprised to see that we're back at almost 40% when you think that the real rate from January to February fluctuates from anywhere what is that 50% to just above 60 the market collapses to just about 20% in the market rebounding to about 40 and what they talk about here is that top travel markets like New York City which is interesting because they're just opening up today so I don't know how they're dealing with higher occupancy rates but in Atlanta had occupancy rates above 40 however typically popular destinations like Oahu island Hawaii and Orlando Florida reported low occupancy levels interesting but there's your new graphic air travel though we talked about some of these airlines that's a tough chart folks and that that curve needs to steepen before the airlines are going to be back in business in a big way year over year change and daily travelers passing through TSA checkpoints you go from zero almost a full wipe out to maybe 97% 95% decline we're still more than 80% off of where we were remarkable there but home purchases we've always heard it right home market whether it's low interest rates home market year over year change and mortgage applications for purchasing a single family a home the market hits basically about a 35% decline year over year change I mean that's that's right at the peaks and almost was a 18 17 18 19% strong numbers for that home market probably being helped by lower interest rates and those rates probably going to rise a bit I mean the 10 year we just went from I think it was under 7 tenths percent to now above 9 tenths percent or right at 7 tenths last week to 9 tenths strong numbers Florida my home state now just bringing in some of the awareness I mean these numbers you know the bar I was just listening to Bloomberg earlier this morning and somebody was talking about and I believe correctly so and it should be you know we have to get things back open people can make their decisions of what they want to do you want to be safe in terms of if you want to be out if you don't want to be out I think you should be wearing a mask to be respectful of other people right now because that's really what it's about but just being aware of what is around because I don't think a lot of people would realize that over the last five days in Florida you're talking about like 64 hundred cases something like that when you add up the 13 14 13 numbers so that's that's that's a that's a strong acceleration in the seven day average which is the line here that you're talking about and I wonder how that's going to play out as this economy opens back up and you're dealing with thousands of new cases you know so be aware and be vigilant out there to still practice social distancing when possible and put your mask on because there's a lot of areas when you look at I mean we're dealing with Florida alone 63 000 cases you put this on the USA and you talk about states there it's rising and declining I pull this up and you know Florida has a great Department of Health dashboard I look at multiple sources folks the Times has a great one the the Johns Hopkins you know they have a great one where new cases are increasing you're talking about a lot of states 9 10 20 21 states are so forth and that's they're talking about on a 14 day basis they're grading that and then you got of course where they're the same and then where they're decreasing but this are rapidly moving rapidly moving evolving situation so I and I think the market might be getting a little bit ahead of itself when you see some of those accelerations but we'll see what happens casinos look to protect customers from themselves with new safety measures I found it interesting across 26 states 519 casinos are currently open for business representing more than 50% of the casinos nationwide according to the american gaming association uh so you have Missouri you have riverboats you got you know centric casino um cape yeah Missouri that's it casinos everywhere I we had a we had a Tampa hard rock I follow them on some social media we've seen with Tom and I have gone over they got heat checks they got all this stuff I've been seeing videos from the Tampa hard rock that looks like uh it's New Year's Eve the party going on over there so I imagine casinos Vegas as well I've seen some videos out there and that's why some of those spikes just to put people on notice um they're big numbers man and when you look at the the the totals in terms of the cases and then you look at the death tolls it's decreasing but I mean we're still talking about 700 1,500 americans dying every day and that total unfortunately nationwide still ticking at about 20,000 and if you start seeing rises like you see in the florida map as I brought up something I don't think a lot of people are aware of you know and and and it and it grows tiresome in terms of hearing about this on a constant basis we're talking stocks for sure but the important part is information being out there and people being able to make the right decision for themselves with the correct information so you know if you're in high risk if you have parents grandparents in high risk in states that you know that the chart seems to be accelerating uh arizona was one there's a few others that jumped out just be aware of that and practice some safe social distancing when possible all right finishing it up for this segment we'll jump back and see what else we have on stack we get the nasdaq climbing into positive territory as we speak pretty remarkable the cues hitting all time highs last week we'll finish it up we've pulled back a bit we're above 240 and just for some context as we come into this break I mean the previous high in february you're talking about 237 47 we're blowing that away 239 69 right now stay tuned folks we'll be right back back in the day I joined the hotel california 2006 and like many of you was drawn in by as well as whatever you think about you bring about whatever you focus on growth you see I believe that everything in life happens for us not to us and tom ignited the fire within me to want to learn how to master the markets so how did I go from knowing nothing about technical analysis to becoming the number one market timer for the s&p 500 in 2018 and the number two market timer in 2019 simply put I hired coaches with a proven track record which led me to a whole new set of tools that I created to interpret the message of buyers and sellers I would love the opportunity to teach you this award winning set of tools and help you improve your market timing you can test drive my newsletter service mastering probabilities for the next 30 days with no risk to you plus you'll gain access to archive workshops that will take you step by step through my system sign up today by going to the home page of tfnn.com and selecting mastering probability in the newsletter tab if you haven't checked out the newsletters page of tfnn.com what are you waiting for all of the tfnn newsletters are informative up to date affordable and a must have for every trader looking to gain a competitive informational edge in today's markets tfnn newsletters cover every aspect of the markets to offer you 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folks to even youtube or you can access that from our tiger tv button or banner on the front page of tfnn.com you'll see the youtube link you can search tfnn live get in there with all the subscribers with all the contributors that are in the chat a great chat folks we got a lot of great contributors in there one of the thing they were talking about which is a fair point you always want to look at is the amount of testing right they're saying more testing in florida more testing in florida a common argument you hear believe me one of the things i'm looking at and it definitely contributes as things are ramping up but to bring the numbers into things folks this is the florida department of health dashboard okay to run by the department of health this is the sum of persons testing negative per week okay you go back to may 17th folks you had to and this is the state of florida okay you had but testing's been around okay testing isn't ramping up huge this week it's been around for for one two three weeks you know most of the time in many areas may 17th florida had 235 000 negative tests this past week we only had 216 000 negative tests okay so testing is actually decreased the number of people tested from may 17th to may 31st week ended okay there is a rise up but you've seen a normalization in that testing and then you've seen that normalization well we've seen quite a spike okay the curve never actually quite bent down from this area when we uh when we seem to accelerate so just putting some facts into the conversation because testing matters it does folks you just got to be aware you got people in high risk people should know that there's 6000 plus people testing positive in the state of florida in the last five days uh and the testing actually doesn't look like it has actually increased over the last couple weeks there's your there's your covid bit to end it on uh wrapping around we'll finish it up with some stocks the stocks making moves i'm going to jump through some of these headlines real quick oh dunkin brand's getting an upgrade michael's brand michael's getting an upgrade and how about amazon 3300 a share they get a price target for amazon amazon looking to open at 2504 stay tuned folks larry pesavento