 Okay, very good morning. Hope you well. Good to be back after a couple days off the desk So I hope everyone's had a good week so far and just gonna get up to speed with quite a few different things From the cold snap ongoing and the implications that energy sector in the US obviously saw yesterday WTI crude futures in the front month contract get up to close to 61 bucks We had a higher well at a record print in US equities, but generally a fairly flat finish Overall in the major three indices in the cash market, but again generally keeping that theme alive of equities fairly elevated The dollar seeing a degree of strength and we're back above a key long-term trend line Which we'll look at in a moment So just inserting a bit of downside pressure on both major currency pairs in the euro and pound this morning Which you can see both are down each respectively 30 pips So quite a uniform response to persistent dollar strength to Dixie up about two tenths this morning And then it did come after US bond yield surged to their highest in a year yesterday as everyone kind of continues to have this reflation focus With force coming stimulus and so on and so forth. So definitely some meaningful moves in yesterday's session following the US holiday We had on Monday But let's get straight into it start talking about a couple of things and I wanted to talk first of all about this Which was whenever equities get up to these types of levels of which we've been trading out late Which is record territory a lot of people start asking the question of course of you know, is this getting a little bit over stretched is it overdone and Bank of America released a global research report yesterday, which was reflecting actually quite a broad optimistic mood So of respondents only 13% sought the US equity market as in a bubble 27% thought US shares were in early stageball market while slightly more than half believe US stocks were in late stageball markets So, you know the large proportion there, you know, whether early or late still suggesting we're in a ball market However, it's not all such optimism shared across the street city Strategists have actually said they see a 10% correction in US stocks. It's very plausible And they're noting several factors just kind of these current sentiment readings stretch valuations Slipping earning revision momentum as a couple of things, but just having a look at the S&P 500 as a bit of a case study for the time being in the short term We've had quite a nice technical response in yesterday's session here this top kind of rectangle This was the breakout and trade that we saw going into the close on Friday when US stocks just went rampant into the close And that area of last week's general area of resistance was quite a nice area of support where price responded in the overnight age Pacific session and much like we've seen over the course of really 2021 any aggressive selling like this which often I think is more by product of you know, I don't think it's You should be thinking right the Fed are gonna start talking up and Removing the kind of punch-bone becoming less dovish because ultimately as I'll share with you in a moment That's the opposite They're actually towing the line as far as some of the Fed rhetoric from Bowman and daily yesterday And so when any of these dips they do tend to get bought into that technical levels of interest And that's exactly what we've had the Asia Pacific session So part of that move already being reversed and we're back up to 3931 having dropped to around 3913 yesterday But what what would a 10% correction look like in the S&P if that ever did materialize if city were right? Well, actually 10% you know 10% sounds obviously large. It's the definition of a Correction, however, if you look at it in the journey that we've been on in the post pandemic environment 10% You could argue it looks quite healthy for a pullback for us to then continue this rally on to the upside I mean definitely a 10% pullback would feel Depending on how quickly that percent was hit I the faster the more material kind of I guess panic it creates Smikes in the VIX would likely accelerate then a lot of the momentum on the downside and definitely we could drop quite quickly but If it did come down there, there's such a solid levels of technical Relevance as we kind of scale the price back down and that 3600 level really is very important If you're looking under the bigger picture That would be the the previous all-time highs in the September the fake break We had on the FISA vaccine used on the nights of November had some retests on the 30th and the November 21st A deck obviously there's there's areas we'd need to get through even before then here You can see at 36 56 and a half and and even further up if we started coming up to this kind of area 3862 so Yeah, I Personally at this point, you know, I know there's a few It always is the the kind of bears banging the drum trying to find metrics as to talk this market down But I'm still up to belief for the time being at least that any Significant selling will be brought into as far as US equities are concerned at this point Just looking at the broader asset class mix As you can see you're a dollar and cable are both down each respectively around 30 pips at the moment So quite a uniform I would say dollar response To the general move higher that we saw yesterday in tandem with the the breakout up in US yields moving to their highest in a Year the Dixie is up about a quarter percent again this morning having gapped up a little bit overnight in In terms of the Dixie futures and just having a look at this chart here This is a very familiar one I've been looking at for for the last couple of weeks and this is that kind of trend line going back from May To November test and it was an area of which when we broke out above Had had quite strong implications for how the major currency pairs were performing If we actually go back to where we were towards the end of last week You can see there that that wick about three candles ago We had a firm test there and it got rejected this one here We had another test in yesterday's session rejected But you can see now we're above that marker, so I'm quite interested to see this morning how the dollar performs Technically, I think this has been quite a good sign a good barometer for then the dollar sentiment on the day And this would be Intonating towards perhaps a more bullish day for the greenback if that is the case then I'd definitely be keeping an eye on these major currency pairs and as I speak on Q the Dixie Strength just imparting downside pressure on the euro and the euro's just seeing a bit of further Weight come in just on the break as well of technically some fairly interesting levels here in the short-term price activity So just seeing a spill down to s1 now in the euro future on the dollar strength cable obviously Has been holding up a little better But again susceptible perhaps to a little bit of dollar strength just given the breakout Strengths that we've had generally there was that level I was looking at in the briefing that I did on Sunday You know now we're above that key area of congestion of 38 It's feel like we were going to push up to towards 140 and certainly We have got close proximity to that in fact only within around a 50-pip range So a bit of a pullback from there as well with some of the dollar strength. I think Wouldn't be too untoward I guess a key level to watch today in the future is 138 63 You can see here has been a pretty good level of late and just under there on the daily pivots You've got the s1 as well But it's the little way to go for cable as the euro just touches fresh lows Okay, so some other news then Elsewhere in the broader metals space Copper climbing to its highest in 2012 and tin extended a dramatic surge yesterday So some of the bit of a disconnect at the moment. I would say between industrial and precious metals industrial still being buoyed by this whole reflation picture and this pickup with the Adoption of vaccines and a reopening expectation of economies in in due course City group actually forecast copper prices will rally to ten thousand dollars a tonne in six to twelve months on better than expected Recovery and demand most known to be outside of China and that's obviously a key metric to support then those types of metals because It has been underpinned a lot by a fairly early recovery in China post pandemic But if you start to see that spill out into the rest of the globe, then that's going to be another Key catalyst but potential upside in in copper Meanwhile elsewhere though, if you were looking at the lights of gold still remaining a bit pressured by this kind of dollar yield View at the moment and the yellow metal still remains in the futures below 1800 for the time being this morning Moving over though, I've got a few notes I wanted to cover on energy markets and obviously that gas and WTI crude have seen some meaningful Movement over the last 48 hours and to get you up to speed getting myself up to speed having been off the desk the last couple of days Extreme temperatures in North America have curtailed more than two million bowels a day of US oil production So meaningful amount demand from refineries is also being crimped with over three million Bowels a day of processing capacity being idled according to energy aspects as quoted in Bloomberg the polar blast left approximately 73.2% of the US covered with snow and a deep freeze is expected to cause havoc on the oil and gas Production in North America for several days if not weeks according to industry experts Production of gas in the lower 48 states has plummeted to a three-year low as Frigid weather triggers blackouts and causes liquids to freeze inside pipes Forcing wells and processing plants to completely shut So underpinning the rally is the prospect in terms of gas of tighter infantries by the end of winter as heating demand starts sore liquefied natural gas export terminals are shut or curtailed operations amid now a Disaster declaration that we've had in Texas, which is experiencing blackouts at the moment New York gasoline futures close to their highest since August 2019 on Tuesday as a reference point. So, yeah, this is Some some really significant news actually and definitely I think a lot of this To a certain extent obviously has been reflected in price already But I guess this is going to be a rolling thing Which energy traders will be keeping an eye on day today is getting an idea then on the timeline of some return of Lomality which is hard to get a accurate read on at this point in time And obviously given the fact that you know as I just said that The snow and deep freeze is causing havoc for not just gas but also oil for refining for wells for everything Then this could be something which could be a real focal point for the rest of this week at least For for crude oil traders. So definitely worth keeping an eye on that as it develops the other thing I wanted to have a look at was We'll stick with the US and this was a few Fed comments because you know one of the things that the market's very Apprehensive about is potentially when does the Fed start to talk about the idea of optimism that's being reflected in this general reflation view at the moment start to then impact and Forced the need for change in Fed rhetoric to something less accommodative than it currently is at the moment That's probably one of the key risks actually that we're looking out for in the FMC minutes later on tonight And that is that there's a slight risk of upset in the bond market should a few members want to discuss The appropriate timing of the withdrawal of stimulus now you remember going to that last Fed meeting It was pretty much Sturma on that point. However Commentary about withdrawing stimulus will just further fuel the type of moves that we were seeing yesterday yield dollar strength Probably equity weakness If it was that they were having discussions about having the discussion if that makes sense So there's a key point. We're looking at in the minutes But with all that being said actually you've had two speakers I saw from overnight news feds bowman and feds daily both the voters and both of a kind of Neutral this position as far as the hawked-up spectrum is concerned, but they said the US economy still has this is bowman She said the US economy still has a long way to go to heal from the COVID-19 pandemic and new variants of the virus are Seen as troubling while feds daily said don't be fearful about too high inflation And so again paying heed to the fact that they see it or at least she does is a relatively Temporary thing also given the fact of the The degree of flexibility offered by average inflation targeting allowing inflation to be able to run hot above its Traditional 2% target. So the reason why I think Fed commentary will be very important going forward Is that if all things continue at this point in time and things like the vaccine continue to be rolled out and that allows then? Restrictions to be loosened and economic activity starts to then in real terms Reflects some of this overall optimism being priced in right now and the Fed have got to change their rhetoric at some point I think probably now is a little bit too soon, but when that moment comes that's going to be a real Point then of which will undoubtedly will cause some degree of response and volatility in markets because the Fed have got to tread very carefully of course not to Spook the market. They're going to act too quick. So something to be aware of And then the final thing I wanted to talk about was COVID-19 in in the UK and obviously the UK has been a real talking point because of the degree of Success that it's had with the implementation of its vaccine program, which is still well underway at this point It's by far no means over But there was a report here in Sky News last night that I saw and this is what I'm looking for now Is we've got Boris Johnson to give a strategy update on the COVID lockdown strategy on Monday on the 22nd? But then also well What are the subsequent timelines thereafter to give us a roadmap at least of when we can anticipate the economy to start? Reopening to a certain degree through this tiering system, which is obviously critically important for then ascertaining the type of value of which the current assets UK related to training today and every adult in the UK could receive both doses of coronavirus vaccine by August or September maybe sooner if we need to according to the head of the UK's vaccine Task Force this was yesterday and let me just run you through a few different things Now this was something I saw then which slightly Counter to that headline This was in the FT last night saying the UK's anticipating a dip in COVID supply in the coming weeks And obviously a dip in supply would be impactful then for the type of numbers That we could hit and the speed of which we could we could reach them now the FT has reported the UK's Anticipating a dip in coronavirus vaccine in the coming weeks with their analysis Suggesting that if it can continue at its current rate the government's latest inoculation target could be achieved by the end of March Actually The government's much longer target of April 30th, which we know of suggest that ministers either Expect supply levels to drop in the coming weeks or want to play down Expectations stung by the criticism that they suffered during the pandemic which started Stated deadlines have not been met So yeah, I do think this is actually probably prudent planning from the UK They've met that first target, which was if you remember, this is the priority group order And they've managed to get them the first four key categories completed Which is the priority groups going from care home residents residential care workers 80 plus category You know clinically extremely vulnerable So all of these people have now received their first dose, which is that mid-February Beginning of this week 15th target has been achieved now It's about where are we in April and actually then what this is suggesting is the data is telling us that here I think it's on this chart here At the current pace in fact the UK will have given a first COVID-19 vaccine dose to All over 50s by the end of March Well, if you actually look at that then all over 50s is basically then the next Five key priority groups meaning then we've done all nine and the only thing remaining then is the rest of the UK adult population So it again strategy-wise. I think it makes a lot of sense on a couple of different fronts I think the UK wants to avoid any further criticism So they've effectively bought themselves here an extra month by setting the expectation bar relatively low in order then that they've got some flexibility should they Face any type of supply disruption. So I think this has been well managed again by the UK government The telegraph this morning to add to this has said that COVID lockdown is to continue until cases drop below 1000 a day Now currently COVID cases as of yesterday were around ten thousand six hundred and twenty five So still some way to go there and the plan from Boris Johnson according to UK press sources Is that he's unlikely to commit to a clear timetable in the coming months and instead? Promising a series of reviews and again, I think that's probably the most prudent course of action Definitely do not want to be putting your flag in the ground saying right gets to this date We're doing this because with something so volatile as a as a Virus and potential mutations. There's no way that you can really commit with a great deal of Accuracy to hitting these targets better than give yourself flexibility Even though you feel quite bullish about your ability to vaccinate people to first dose and hit these other priority groups And then also as well only commit to then just giving very regular updated reviews I'm responding to the situation as you see it. So How impactful is this for the pound right now? Not particularly, but I do think it Does favor the UK well in its COVID strategy going forward over the coming months And so hopefully that's a fairly thorough update for you a quick look then at the calendar for today We have had the UK inflation data already come out So let me just quickly read out the year-on-year zero point seven percent CPI Expectations were for zero point six no movement in pound as you would expect You know inflation figures They're just not that important right now because obviously they're particularly low We're still in the midst of course of a national lockdown at this point If there is any future pent up demand inflation to emerge It's not going to be until most likely later It is the first of some important UK data They will get as updates this week a few more things coming out later In the week retail sales and you've got the PMI flash data, which is going to be particularly important on Friday morning So other than that Definitely, I think currency-wise it's more of a dollar day than it is Sterling for sure. So as I mentioned keep an eye on the green back Otherwise the morning quite quiet We're going to see the US afternoon and we've got retail sales Coming out of North America alongside industrial production manufacturing output These figures should show the US economy started 2021 on a fairly firm footing retail sales expected to bounce back up to a positive 1.1 from a previous minus 0.7% Bear in mind that stimulus checks the previous ones started hitting in early January So it should help to some degree to have lift that number a little bit So again, this is not talking about the Biden proposal at the moment. These are the prior checks And then you've got the FFMC minutes, which we've already discussed and then speaker-wise Feds Rosengren a non-voting member speaking at 2.15 London Bank of England's Ramsden speaking at 4 p.m. London time And then from the US Fixed income well for fixed income traders. You are UK guilt auction this morning I read about really solid demand we saw for Italian auction yesterday Obviously given the renewed optimism over draggy coming in looking to steer the ship You've then got a longer dated German auction and 27 billion in a 20-year bond auction from the US coming later as well And that's your wrap. So hopefully that's got you up to speed And the guys will be going over the charts from a more technical perspective on Amplify live I'm going to be doing a masterclass myself tonight 6 p.m. London time We're I'm going to be joined by my guest Merit black joining us from the States to share some of his insights and philosophy About trading with our community. So if you want to join that discussion live, just go to Amplify live comm Thanks very much guys and have a great day head