 Hello everyone, welcome to Options with Doug, streaming live daily on Bookmap Discord and the Bookmap YouTube channel at 1.30pm Eastern Time. Before I get started, I need to go through the Disclosures. General disclosure, all Bookmap Limited materials, information and presentations are for educational purposes only and should not be considered specific investment advice nor recommendations. Risk disclosure, creating futures, equities and options involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Here's my contact information. The best way to get in touch with me is through Discord. My name on Discord is Doug P. Also in Bookmap Discord, there's an Options-Doug chat channel. That's a great place to post questions, comments and content related to the topics of my presentation and the topics of the channel that I'll go through in just a moment. I'm also on X, formerly known as Twitter. My name there is at Doug P. The focus of my presentation today and the focus of the Options-Doug chat channel is Options Order Flow, the impact of options markets on stocks and futures to re-influence a market maker hedging flow on price action. I have a two-step process for trading and the first is planning and I use positional analysis. I look at how traders and market makers are positioned to the options market and how those positions change from day to day to develop a thesis regarding the expected trading range and volatility for the day as well as the directional bias. And the second step in my process is execution. I look at real-time motor flow in Bookmap and real-time market maker hedging flow in SpotGamaHero to confirm my thesis and for setups for entries and exits. And when I talk about setups, I will be focusing on an underlying asset and setups in that asset can be taken any number of ways. For example, SMB500 setups can be taken with ES futures, SMI shares, SMI options, SPX options, or even ES options. So I'm just focusing on the setup, however you choose to set, to take that trade that's up to you. Also, the setups that I will be talking about today are appropriate for short-term trades, day trades, swing trades, or even longer-term trades depending on your time frame. Questions and comments are welcome, and I will be watching both the options-dug chat channel and Discord as well as the chat in the YouTube channel, Bookmap YouTube channel for your questions and comments. Please feel free to post, and I'll do my best to answer your questions. And hello, Floyd's Garage. Welcome. Glad you're here. All right. Here's my agenda for today, Wednesday, December 20th. First of all, I want to go over news items, economic data, and events for today as well as the rest of the week. Then I'll go through my positional analysis. Then I'll review some setups from earlier today. And then I'll talk about the live market. And when I get to the live market, if anyone has any stocks they want me to take a look at, please let me know, and I'll be glad to do that. All right. News items for today. Consumer Confidence did come out at 10 a.m., and that was greater than expected and greater than the previous reading for Consumer Confidence. Then tomorrow, GDP and jobless claims are out at 8.30 a.m. eastern time. And then on Friday at 8.30 a.m. eastern time, PCE data and durable goods orders are out. And typically PCE data could be a market mover. All right. So that will wrap up the week, overall a very light week regarding events and economic data. All right. Let's move on to positional analysis. I'm going to start with ESB 500. This is the ES Futures and Book Map. And before I take a closer look at this chart, I do want to take a look at a larger time frame. So I'm going to start with SPX. This is the underlying asset index for the ESB 500. This is a one-day chart. And the current rally began on October 30th for a variety of reasons. IV collapse, put-fed and rally, FOMC announcements, and also CPI reports coming in better than expected. And so far, the SPX is up just a little bit less than 700 points. And for just for your reference, this rally that began on March rallied 800 points. So for March to July, that rally was 800 points. All right. So that is the current rally, currently approaching 700 points. And the next level above that we'll take a look at in just a minute is the 4800 call wall. We can see that on this chart. This is a 30-day one-hour chart. I'm going to zoom in just on the last week or so. So we can just focus on the levels. All right. So let me point out the levels on this chart. First of all, the dash purple lines showing the lower and upper weekly expected move. Note that SPX is trading above that upper weekly expected move. This is based on the options market. It's updated once a week. Those levels remain in place for the entire week. I update them over the weekend. So that's the upper weekly expected move. SPX trading above the upper weekly expected move. The dash blue lines are showing the lower and upper daily expected move. And note that SPX is trading within that range today. So those are the expected moves. Now let's take a look at the spot gamma levels. These are proprietary spot gamma levels provided to spot gamma subscribers shown on a variety of trading platforms. And this is thinkorswim. Again, a 30-day one-hour chart. I'm going to point out the key daily levels. So first of all, the put wall has moved up pretty substantially to 47.45 from 4500 yesterday. So a pretty substantial move higher in put wall. We'll look at the absolute gamma levels in just a minute to see where that is. All right, so also the volatility trigger moves substantially higher. That's also at 47.45. So the put wall is the strike with the largest negative gamma that can be expected to act as support. And the volatility trigger is spot gamma's proprietary volatility flip level. Below that level, market makers position on the gamma curve is negative. In a negative gamma environment, market makers have to trade with price to hitch their delta exposure. And that tends to enhance or increase volatility. On the other hand, above that level, like SPX trading now, market makers position on the gamma curve is positive. In a positive gamma environment, market makers have to trade against price to hitch their delta exposure. And that tends to subdue or decrease volatility. And the next level up is 4800. That's the call wall. That's a strike with the largest net positive gamma. And that can be expected to act as resistance. So the potential floor at the put wall at 47.45 and the potential call wall, potential ceiling, that's potential floor at the put wall, potential ceiling at the call wall. Again, that's the strike with the largest net positive gamma. It can be expected to act as resistance. And then finally way up here at 5000, that is the absolute gamma strike. That's the strike with the largest absolute positive and negative gamma. So that's where most of the gamma weighted open interest is concentrated. All right, so those are the, that's the range of levels. Let's just take a look at one other SPX chart. Now go to a one minute chart. So we can see the levels in play for today. So the dark area over on the right here is the, that's the today. This is the cash open for today. Note that SPX is trading above the upper weekly expected move and has found resistance at this combo L2 level. 47.78, that was noted as resistance in the spot gamma AM founders note. All right, so those are the levels in play for today. Pretty narrow range for SPX today. Typical of a positive gamma environment also with a bullish bias. All right, shifts and levels for SPX. I talked about both the volatility trigger and put wall shifted up substantially both at the 47.45 level. Call wall and absolute gamma strike remain the same. All right, let's go to book map now. In a book map, I have my own cloud notes so I can show SPX levels. There's that 47.78 level that acted as resistance. I'm also showing spy levels on this chart. And here's the spy 475 call wall absolute gamma strike. That was the call wall yesterday, remains the call wall today and the absolute gamma strike for spy shifted higher. Also the volatility trigger and put wall for spy shifted higher. So I'm showing SPX levels, spy levels and any other levels of interest and all of my cloud notes. One column of notes here. And note that earlier today the SP500 broke above the 475 call wall. Still trading below the SPX 4800 call wall. All right, so shifts and levels, two shifts higher for SPX and then a hat trick for spy. So all of that is bullish. Those shifts higher in levels. I'll show the absolute gamma strikes in just a minute and we'll also show the shift higher and open interest for calls for the SPX. All right, so levels in play for today. On the upside, the 47.78 combo two resistance level. That combo two combines SPX and spy gamma weighted open interest into one combined level here converted to an equivalent SPX price. And note there is a difference in price between ES and SPX. It's a little bit over 52 points today. So ES minus SPX equals, it's right around 52 and a half today and I'm using 52. All right, let's take a look at NASDAQ now. So Floyd's garage asked spy call wall now act as support, potentially yes. So I would be looking for that. The S&P 500 is somewhere in between the spy call wall and the SPX call wall above. And now spot gammas research, their statistics, do show Ford one day and five day negative returns after a call wall breach and that I think pertains primarily to the SPX. All right, here's NASDAQ in QFutures and Bookmap. And before take a closer look at this chart, I do want to take a look first of all at QQQ levels so we can isolate the QQQ levels in play for today. And the primary level is the call wall at 410. And QQQ has been oscillating up and down around that level, breached it earlier today, then acted as resistance, price breached again, here acting as support, and now price has moved back lower. So that's the call wall at 410 for QQQ. And here is the other important level, the 408 level that is the volatility trigger and absolute gamma strike for QQQ, acting as support before the cash open. And that for QQQ, the volatility trigger and absolute gamma strikes both shifted higher both to the 408 level. So bullish shifts higher in levels for QQQ as well. All right, let's take a look at NDX. The reason I'm showing all of these different underlying assets, the ES futures are a derivative of the SPX, the SB500, and then NQ, a derivative of NDX. And options trades in these underlying index products for a big driver price, ES for the SB500 and NQ for the NASDAQ 100. All right, let's take a look at NDX. The only level in play for today is this combo L2 level, and that appears to be very close to the 410 call wall. In fact, it's just about the same level. And note that NDX is trading above its call wall. At the 16,650 level, that is the absolute gamma strike and also the call wall at 16,650. All right, let's go back to the NQ chart now. And there's this cluster of levels. That's the 410 QQQ call wall. And then that combo level just above that. And now NASDAQ trading below that level. And again, I'm showing these levels in my cloud notes here, QQQ levels, and also the NDX levels, as well as the big round numbers in NQ. There's a 17,000 level. And I'll talk about setups in a few minutes. All right, shifts and levels again for QQQ, volatility trigger, absolute gamma strike shifted higher. And for NDX, the put wall shifted higher. All right, let's take a look at gamma notional now to see how market makers were positioned on the gamma curve at the beginning of the day. So what this is showing is market makers position on the gamma curve again at the beginning of the day for the S&P 500 and NASDAQ. We're also 2,000. This is updated once a day, provided to spot gamma subscribers on the AM founders note. All these numbers are positive. So what spot gamma assumes for an index is that traders are short calls, market makers are long calls in a positive gamma environment, and they have to trade against price to hedge their delta exposure. So again, all these numbers are positive and they did increase from yesterday. All right, I'm going to skip the VATMA model. It's the same every day in a positive gamma environment. There's probably nothing to see there, not much of a van a tail wind or head wind. But I do want to take a look at the absolute gamma strikes. Let's go to SPX, zoom in on this chart. So what this is showing is market makers gamma notional. Calls shown with orange, positive gamma, and blue is showing puts, negative gamma. So this is the 4,800 level. That's the call wall, the strike with the largest net positive gamma. So call gamma shown with orange minus put gamma shown with the blue bar gives you the greatest amount of net positive gamma. So that's the call wall. Here's the 5,000 level. That's the strike with largest absolute, negative and positive gamma. And then let's find the 47,45 level. That's right there. Not a lot of put gamma. So this is really, I guess gets the put wall designation kind of based on the technicality. The definition of the put wall is the largest net negative gamma. So the blue bar minus the orange bar gives you the largest value of net negative gamma. Although they're, of course, obviously much larger put gamma at the zeros and the 50s levels. 4,800, 4,750, 4,700, etc. Let's take a look at one other thing. Just to see, give us an idea of sentiment here. All right, what I'm going to show, this is for SBX. This is the open interest change. This is from yesterday to today. This is showing puts first. These are all the, this is all the open interest that was added to puts yesterday. So quite a bit in this range from around 4,600 to 4,800. More importantly, what I want to show is calls. So above the zero line, these are calls added and below the zero line calls closed. Open interest is closing there. So that is just above that 4,745 volatility trigger and note all the calls added. That's at 4,790, 4,800 and 5,000. So quite a shift higher in the absolute gamma or the open interest in calls there. All right, let's take a look at some setups. Now, well, first of all my thesis for the day, looking for lower volatility based on the positive gamma and looking for more of a range day, mean reverting price action. And also my directional bias was bullish based on the shifts higher in levels for SPX by NDX and QQQ. All right, so I'm going to start now taking a look at setups from this morning. The first thing I want to do is take a look and see what options traders are doing now. And Paul, yeah, I'll take a look at FDX. I guess that's FedEx. Yeah, I'll take a look at that when I get to the live market. So here's the S&P 500. This is the hero signal. So everything that we've looked at so far, other than the book map, has been based on static data that's updated once a day overnight. Spot gamma takes that open interest data from OCC and applies their own proprietary algorithms to come up with the levels that we looked at and gamma notional, vana model, everything that I use in my planning process. Now we're going to start taking a look at real-time data. So I want to start again by looking at what options traders have been doing today. This is the hero signal, hedging impact real-time options. So what this chart is showing is price for SPX. That's the white line. And then the purple line is the hero signal. Again, that's hedging impact real-time options. That is showing options trades and market maker hedging activity for a combined signal of SPX, SPI, XSP, and ES futures. So when traders buy and sell calls and puts in these underlying assets, market makers will hedge those trades. They will take the opposite side of those trades and they will hedge their delta exposure with ES futures. I'm going to zoom in on this chart and this is the cash open right here at 9.30 a.m. Eastern time. Note the hero signal moving straight up right at the cash open. It's like ready, set, go at 9.30. Bye-bye-bye. That's what traders were doing. I'm going to separate outputs and calls. And earlier today, let's zoom in on this, earlier today they were buying calls and initially selling puts, calls shown with the rising orange line, buying calls when traders buy calls, market makers sell the calls and they have to buy ES futures to hedge their delta exposure. And note that price starts to consolidate and the call buyers take their foot off the gas. So initially traders were selling puts, take their foot off the gas, they start buying puts, and again price consolidates. So when separating out, puts and calls gives us more clarity about what traders have been doing today and this makes it pretty clear that traders were buying calls that was driving price up to about 10.30. They take their foot off the gas and price consolidates. Zoom out. And now finally, so traders have continued to buy puts that's shown by the following blue line and then they stopped buying calls right around one o'clock and now they're selling calls and buying puts. Both the blue line right now starting about one o'clock, both the blue line and the orange line moving the same direction. That's a very powerful directional indicator and the S&P 500 is moving lower. All right, let's go take a look at book map. Go back to ES. I'm going to focus on the setup from this morning. We'll go to about 12 o'clock and note there was a pretty long period of consolidation this morning and then just before the cash open at 9.30 a.m. Eastern time, aggressive buyers started to come in. The volume dots are showing market buy minus sell. Magenta dots indicate they're more sellers than buyers. Green volume dots indicate more buyers than sellers. Just a couple minutes before the cash open the aggressive buyers start to come in just a little bit. Aggressive buyers start to come in and also before the cash open note the rising light blue line. Those are showing iceberg orders. Large traders use iceberg orders to hide their size. Book map can detect them with the stops and icebergs indicator. This is the on-chart indicator of large traders buying with iceberg orders. And book map consolidates a number of orders into one indicator there and if I zoom in more those will be separated out. But at this level of zoom they are consolidated. So aggressive buyers start to come in at the cash open traders start aggressively buying calls. Aggressive buyers, iceberg orders and after the cash open order flow shifts definitely bullish. That's shown by the green volume dots as well as the rising cumulative volume of delta and then as price starts to move higher stop orders help to feel the move higher that's shown by the yellow line in the sub chart. All systems go ready set go 930 start buying with both hands. Traders buying calls traders buying with iceberg orders large traders aggressive buyers cumulative volume delta buy stop orders and feel the move higher to this 4773 level as call buyers take their foot off the gas and traders start buying puts. Though it also the stop line levels off CVD starts to drop. So very clear signals both in book map and in spot gamma hero for for a long at the cash open so now so remember now hero is starting to trend lower and you can see the shift in volume dots a lot of larger magenta volume dots as aggressive sellers are starting to move ES lower and note now that ESB 500 is trading below the 475 call wall alright so great long setup this morning again very clear signals both in book map and in hero or let's take a look in NASDAQ in a very similar setup on this just a little bit so again ready set go at the cash open sideways movement cash open aggressive selling shown by the magenta volume dots and then the aggressive buyers start to come in and also large traders again buying with iceberg orders shown by the on chart indicator as well as the sub chart indicator rising light blue line traders buying with iceberg orders cumulative volume delta rising line rising pink line changes to blue when that number goes positive and also buy stop orders fueling the move higher and in this case up to the QQQ 410 call wall and above that level let's take a look and see what options traders were doing let's go back to hero and first we'll take a look at NASDAQ so this is a combined signal for NDX and QQQ separate outputs and calls a little bit more choppy signal here in NASDAQ but in the morning traders buying calls shown by the rising orange line they are also initially selling puts right around 1030 they start buying puts and call buyers more or less take their foot off the gas and then price consolidates and let's go take a look now at the another combined signal this is for the Magnificent 7 the stocks known as the Magnificent 7 let's just zoom out so this is the combined signal for Apple, Amazon, Google, Meta, Microsoft, Nvidia and Tesla make up a very large portion of the SB500 and an even larger portion of the NASDAQ 100 so then again very bullish signal from the open sharply rising hero signal traders were buying calls aggressively then they take their foot off the gas right around 1030 price consolidates and net for the day they are buying calls and buying puts call buyers more aggressive really in charge of price let's go back to book map alright let's take a look at some stocks now so first of all the theme of the day is call walls so now NASDAQ is trading back below the QQQ 410 call wall and more or less acted as resistance today let's take a look at go back to the SB500 and now the SB500 also trading below the SPI 475 call wall alright let's take a look now at Netflix and also finding resistance at its call wall at 500 let's go take a look at hero for Netflix zoom in on this chart so here is the 500 key gamma strike call wall acting as resistance note the sharp shift in the hero signal traders taking positive delta positions and as price hits that 500 call wall immediately start taking negative delta positions let's see what they are doing mainly call buyers and call sellers driving price and here is the looking for a long setup this morning here is this around 10-15 here is the long setup sharp shift in the call line there traders initially selling calls they start buying calls note the timely flow alert that indicates significant options activity and for a brief period the blue line put line was driving up as well traders were buying calls and selling puts and up to the 500 call wall key gamma strike and they immediately start selling calls and buying puts alright so net for the day they are buying calls selling puts call buyers much more aggressive let's go take a look at book map so here is that first test of the call wall at 500 note the liquidity at that level this is the heat map and book map showing a history of the limit orders in the order book and those limit orders above price would be limit sell orders and those are absorbed and remember options traders let's just zoom in on this right around 10-15 the hero signal shifted sharply higher that's right around here right at the 495 level as well as VWAP shown by this blue line so reversal higher trend break at the 495 level and price moves quickly moves higher as traders are buying calls market makers sell the calls and they have to buy stock to hedge their delta exposure so a nice quick move up for 5 points in netflix up to the 500 call wall and that is the obvious target both in terms of spot gamma levels as well as this high liquidity high number of resting sell orders at that price that liquidity attracts price so netflix continues now to chop around that 500 call wall after a second test and a slight breach alright so there's netflix great long this morning another way to play this is now it might not necessarily have worked for netflix we'll see as the day goes on if that 500 level will hold again so if you missed this move which was pretty clear this move up for 495 to 500 and then when it gets to 500 take your profit and then you could buy a put spread or sell a call spread somewhere above there watching hero and watching price action at that level let's go back to hero the total signal the next stock I wanted to take a look at is nvidia and sotarazi says coinbase hit about 169.50 today maybe call gamma on one this friday yeah we'll check on that and also IWM might be rolling over we can take a look at that as well alright so here's nvidia again sticking with the theme of the day is call wall call walls acting as resistance for nvidia let's go take a look at book map so nvidia this starts just a few minutes before the cash open this straight shot up to 500 call wall nvidia meets resistance there just a bit double test nvidia now moving lower and what this looks like is somewhat of a stop run up to that level note again all the high liquidity at that level in this case not fully absorbed limit sell orders at 500 let's go back to hero so pretty choppy signal here in hero let's zoom in a little bit and note the quick reversal and hero signal twice at 500 traders switch from taking positive delta positions to negative uh negative delta positions at that level so today mainly call buyers and sellers driving price and the call buyers become call sellers as nvidia hits the 500 level they do that twice let's take a look at tesla zoom in alright for tesla same story call wall acting as resistance price did not quite make it up to that level hero shifts from bullish to bearish just below the 260 call wall and calls and puts in the case of tesla moving just about the same direction so from the cash open traders were selling puts and buying calls and then at 1015 they shifted just below the call wall to selling calls and buying puts let's go to book map tesla so tesla quick move up reverses lowered just below the 260 call wall this is a case where that either buying a put spread or selling a call spread as the stock approaches the level that you expected to act as resistance that would have worked well today alright there's tesla alright let's tick on some stocks right c cwr one of the lower targets on tesla let's go take a quick look at that and then we'll get to fedex alright so let's go back to open up equity hub look at tesla here alright so for tesla the put wall is at 240 so that would be your first potential target lower so if it goes below 250 that would certainly be a target 250 the key gamma strike and below that the put wall at 240 alright so 250 being the first at the key gamma strike and below that 240 the put wall alright let's go back to hero and paul wanted to take a look at fedex alright i don't have fedex in book map we'll take a look at hero and traders taking negative delta positions in fedex let's see what they're doing so from the open they were selling calls and buying puts and that activity leveled off right around 12 now it looks like fedex is consolidating just right around the 250 level so this is the opposite of that pattern i showed in a positive or a bullish environment aggressive call buyers in the morning take the food off the gas 11 or 12 and price consolidates or moves lower good opportunity again for selling a call spread buying a put spread and this is just the opposite options traders take their foot off the gas right around 12 o'clock and price consolidates alright c w r hope i answered your question about tesla i would say 250 the next major target down below again alright khalid you're welcome so the rosy mentioned coin base let's take a look at that so bullish day here in coin base i guess pit coin is probably up today so in coin base they are buying calls that's shown by the rising orange line and the positive notional value and they're also selling puts again shown by the notional value positive alright and so rosy also wanted to look at i w m let's do that again i don't have i w m and book map but i do have it and we can see it in hero here so bullish day for bullish day here for i w m trading above the 200 key gamma strike and call buyers driving price action in i w m not doing not much with puts they are buying puts but notional value for calls 118 million versus notional value for puts 3.57 million alright dan p says bitcoin is up 5% today could explain the rise in coin but don't know much about how much btd hold on their balance sheets yeah i'm not sure either but they're kind of a bunch of stocks that really trade quite closely with bitcoin i think coin base is one of those alright aspired to trade once to see nq again so let's go to d1c nq and book map here we go in book map and nasdaq may be doing a roundtrip today so dorazi says vixit new highs of the day so sharp move higher ready set go at the cash open up to the 410 call wall long period of consolidation aggressive sellers start to come in and now price moving lower let's see what options traders are doing let's check on es real quick pretty similar pattern and smb 500 below the 475 call wall let's see what options traders doing first of all in nasdaq bullish in the morning and then start slowly grinding lower and now hero signal has reverse lower pretty sharply negative notional value for the day let's take a look at the sp500 similar pattern bullish in the morning consolidation then about one o'clock hero starts to drop sharply lower now prices responding lower as though dorazi says vixit the high of the days plus 1.28% let's check on vix just go to today so starting about 1130 vixit really started to move up and then consolidated a bit then about one o'clock really started to move sharply higher so starting from from such a level vixit's up to 3 today and at 12 point right around 12.5 when it started today that is up for now 1.84% alright so thank you a slow dorazi that is a good internal indicator to keep an eye on then see gh i'm not sure i understand your question does that line show when they expire also or just buying of options so we can take a look at um let's take a look at sp500 and get some sense of when these options are expiring so the hero line now is showing options all expirations that's showing all trades that's the purple line and then for every instrument they will show next expiry so for the sp500 this would be options that expire today and note the very close correspondence between the purple line showing all trades and the green line showing zero dte trades or next expiry and again in the case of the sp500 that is trades that expire today so note the very again the very close correlation these numbers are almost identical indicating that zero dte trades and the sp500 are driving quite a bit of the hedging flow options trades hedging flow and price action today so thanks for pointing that out and for a stock the next expiry would be the friday expiration and cwr group says tesla tanking after talking about 250 let's take a look at tesla yes moving lower here's the 250 key gamma strike let's go back to book map wrap it up so it looks like es doing a round trip today same for nasdaq alright my time is up i want to wrap it up i want to wrap it up alright my time is up i want to thank everyone for watching thank you very much for your questions and comments i always love it when you guys post questions and comments and remember tomorrow gdp jobless claims at 8.30 am easter time and then we'll talk about it tomorrow afternoon alright thanks everyone have a great afternoon great evening and i will see you tomorrow bye