 So going into this week, yeah, I mean, look, I'm not going to guess when that blow off top is going to be, but you have to assume it's going to come, you know, in the next couple of days, usually when you have an exhaustion cycle the same way we saw in the video. Welcome to Access a Trader, the number one community for those who are committed to taking control of their trading in order to achieve success, profitability and longevity. Thank you for joining us. Here's Dan Shapiro to help you find your edge, master your process and own your future. Hey guys, good morning, everybody. Welcome to another edition of the Access a Trader.com weekend update show. Hope everybody is doing great. Hope everybody's having a wonderful, blessed, healthy, happy, fun weekend because again, at the end of the day, it's our lives. Make them the best that they could possibly be and always try to enjoy yourself. If you are brand new to the channel, welcome aboard. Like, share, subscribe, all those good stuff, you know, come aboard and, you know, share this journey with us of unbiased technical analysis via price action versus opinion. So that's that. So let's get into the market. So some numbers heading into the week. NASDAQ 100 with the QQQs up 33% for the year. Why is that significant? Because we were down 31% in 2022. And so far, six months in, we've erased all of last year's losses. The SPY, let's just use the SPY as a case study, is up 20% from the October lows. Very, very impressive. IWM recently has had a great, great breakout, phenomenal breakout. Congratulations for all you guys who caught it. This was one of the better moves I can remember in the index considering that the market, the majority of the market rested this week was super, super impressive. If you look at the Dow, look at the Dow, it's trailing a little bit compared to everybody else, but still very, very positive. You have 30 stocks making up the index, which is really a microscopic type of view of the market. Again, I like to always look at the broader indexes, the S&P 500, that matched its fourth consecutive gains in a row. The NASDAQ has been powering up and the IWM has been rallying for the last week coming out of a three month channel, which basically again puts the argument to bed that this market was being fueled by only five stocks, which is absolutely ridiculous. And you can see go through chart by chart by chart. Again, there's 2000 names in the IWM, there's 500 names in the SPY, and there's 100 names in the NASDAQ 100s. As far as I understand, again, I'm not the smartest guy in the world, but that's 2600 components that have taken the market higher. As far as I know, carry the one. That might be more than five stocks taking the market up. So it's really, really an incredible market ride. The market has shown incredible action, whether you're trading small, mid cap or large mega cap names like I do. There's something there for everyone. And the question is what happens next, right? The most important thing I do every single day is have a contingency plan because I've been talking about this nonstop for the last couple of weeks. We just don't know when the merry-go-round is going to stop. We just don't. And I know every single day it sounds like a broken record, but that's the day. That's the one day that you get caught slipping, that you just sit there and saying everything is okay. I could just keep on buying and keep on buying. And the next thing you know, you're upside down. And here's a perfect example of that two days ago. We started talking about a little bit of an exhaustion cycle, and what happened in the middle of the week? We finally broke below the five-day moving average. Very, very aggressive. Started breaking below the previous days low, and we traded down to the 10-day moving average. The most impressive part, what I thought of the week was, if you guys remember Wednesday going at the Thursday's video, because we had such a such an aggressive engulfing candle, I was ready for the bottom of the channel. So if that bottom of the channel broke, I was ready for it. Because again, you say to yourself, the market could only rally based on technical, of emotional aggression. If you have an emotional aggression type of scenario that gasses out and goes to the next demand zone, well, if the following day would have confirmed, we would have went lower. The problem is it didn't. And it really shows you the testimony of how strong this market is, but you start looking a little bit deeper. And that's the most important part. You want to be a really good money manager first when it comes to a linear regression type of market, and he keeps on going and going and going versus an alpha hunter. And I've always said, and even though it's extreme bullish market, I've always said, lead with your shield, not with your chin, because you have so many stocks that are up in orbit, you can always get that pull. And again, this is a perfect example of a stock doing so. If you guys remember a couple of weeks ago, and the video had one of the most marvelous runs I could remember in a very, very long time, we talked about the inverted hammer, which was a cell signal. We don't know how aggressive the cell signal was going to be, but it turned out the inverted hammer turned into a price point, a price point that started taking the stock down. No matter what you think about the stock long term, you can't deny the day to day activity of what happened after this inverted hammer. And you're talking about a stock that had this 100 point run up, 130 point run up in a matter of three, four days. And it's gone from 420 as low as the 373. 50 points in about five, six sessions is kind of a big deal. And that's kind of what we want to avoid. Or excuse me, if you're an investor, you kind of want to avoid taking those longer moves and just kind of just sit there and pretend that it can happen to your stock. And that's what I always prepare for. And again, the market has been great. So until my theory gets confirmed, I don't guess, right? And that's the first thing we always tell our traders and try to convey that message. We never guess when that top is going to come in. You just don't. That's the most expensive way to get run over in your account. Just ask anybody who's been trying to short the market. It just since the January, it was realistically, since the January, I believe it was 11th or 12th, that we reclaimed the 50 day moving average on the QQQs. If you've been trying to pick a top, you've been you've been absolutely destroyed. Guys, here's the most basic rule. And I've said this for years and years and years. And it's super important to kind of write this down. If you got nothing out of any of my videos or anything that I've ever said, or any chart that I posted, just listen to the most basic thing about technical analysis. Okay, for a stock to go higher, okay, for any stock to go higher, I don't care if it's Amazon, Tesla, or some two cent stock, it has to start building. What I mean by building the price action has to occur above the previous day's channel. Okay, that's the only way a stock can go higher. Only way is stock can go lower if the price action starts building, right? If it bears start building and taking over control of the previous days low and started building a new ceiling below there. That's the only way a stock can go lower. So the idea that you're shorting a stock because it keeps on going higher because the market goes higher, it's it's it's fool's gold because you're hoping today's the highs, you know, you're guessing today's the highs, you're hoping this is the exhaustion cycle in the tops out later, but the reality is hope is not a strategy. A strategy is a strategy. A process is your strategy. And the point is until a stock starts taking out the previous days low, there's absolutely no way a stock can go lower. So it's a very, very expensive way to try to be right to try to try to guess where future prices are going to hold. The key is folks, if you if you're bullish, let your stock start building above the previous day's channel. If you're bearish, watch the previous days lows. If they start building the previous days lows, there's a high probability the stock will go in that direction. It's the easiest way not to cause yourself a lot of headaches, a lot of sleepless nights, hoping and praying that whatever stock you're looking at is going to finally, you know, gas out and crash. So for example, you know, in the video is the best scenario, right? In the video gassed out the next day, it took out the previous previous days low, right? And it went lower, right? So here's kind of my segue. So Tesla has been, I mean, I've lost words. This has been probably the bomb, definitely the best trade, right? The best trade as soon as it especially as soon as they reclaim the 50 day moving average, just three week run has been absolutely amazing, right? But if what have you noticed about the three this three week run, right? There was only one area in the whole chart that it took out the previous days low, right? Just look at just look at this chart very, very closely. Look at this whole chart, right? There was only one area of the chart that it took out the previous days low. And because the stock was so strong, it only went down a couple of points to its rising five day support. And that's the point. So anybody keeps on shorting Tesla, shorting Tesla, shorting Tesla as it's going higher and higher and higher, until it takes out the previous days low and starts building below that low, it's not going to go lower. And that's the most important point. Pay attention to the chart, pay attention to the price action. And going into this week, I can make a case the same case that I made with the video that, Hey, it's a little too far and a little too fast. Does that mean Monday Tesla is going to fall apart and go right back down to 228, 230, the five day moving average? No, it doesn't have to Monday can gap up and still go in the Tuesday can gap up and still going. But what I am watching for is two things to come into reality. Gravity, right? Gravity, which we know every single stock no matter how strong it is, gravity will always kick in. And the idea that waiting patiently, not guessing waiting patiently for Tesla to gas out, lose the previous days channel. And if it does lose the previous channel, I think gravity plus exhaustion equals a measured potential pullback. It doesn't mean that Tesla will go down to 205, to 203, to 190, to 170 when this whole breakout started. It means we're just looking for a trade and taking advantage of price action, just the same we did on the video. So going into this week, yeah, I mean, look, I'm not going to guess when that blow off top is going to be, but you have to assume it's going to come, you know, in the next couple of days. Usually when you have an exhaustion cycle, the same way we saw in the video, you're going to probably see Tesla gap up, take out opening range highs, trap, you know, late, late buyers in this whole move, go red, take out the previous days low. And then that could turn into a previous into a really, really great example of a natural aggressive back test. And if you guys remember that back test on the video, that back test on the video was $22 guys. It was a $22 case study after exhausted cycle, took out the previous days low and went to the next channel. So Tesla, I am definitely watching this week. I have at least for, you know, unless it goes sideways for two, three days and shows me it just doesn't want to go down, I really have no interest on this thing for the long side. I think the long side of trade for the last three weeks was enough, right? It's like, you know, it's like going to a steakhouse, ordering the Caesar salad, ordering, ordering, you know, stuffed mushrooms, ordering, I don't know, shrimp cocktail, getting a porterhouse steak, ordering mashed potatoes, vegetables, cream, spinach, all that good stuff, eating dessert. And as the waiter is taking the plate away from you, grab his hand and try to lick the bowl for the last chromosome. That's what you're trying to accomplish. If you're going long, literally, right, you know, going long at these levels of Tesla, I love Tesla, I love the stock both ways. And now I think that the long buyers trade at least for the next couple of days is a little bit tired is a little bit exhausted. In my opinion, I think the value in the next few days is going to be to the downside. Will it play out that way? We have no idea. What's the worst case scenario? I'm wrong. The downside never comes and I buy stock. Scary, right? Guys, don't be afraid to be wrong. Don't be afraid to show your vulnerability. You're a human being. We're wrong a lot, right? As human beings, we're wrong a lot. The way we choose our spouses, the way we choose our eating lifestyles, our habits, we're always going to be wrong. The easiest thing to do is, you know, go with your gut. The hardest thing to do is go and sit patiently until your gut gets confirmed by technical price action. And that's exactly what we're looking at. Other than that, if you look at the indexes, IWM continues to, you know, to really do incredibly well playing catch up on the SPX again, had a big, big run up Friday test of the five day. If you are watching for potential back tests in the IWM, if you believe the indexes are getting tired, watch the five day breakdown, right? Don't guess when it's going to happen. Watch the five day breakdown. If this IWM starts losing 184, especially on the close, then yeah, it's going to back, back test to the 10 day moving average. Look at the cues. You know, we have vital points everywhere. You can make a case that the cues got rejected three times at the top of the range. The longer it keeps on getting rejected at the top of the range, the higher probability test the 10 day. If you guys remember, we caught that really great move on the cues from the five to the 10 day. So if you are a bear, don't try to guess when the cues are going to start getting hammered. Set an alert, right? 348 is going to be the line in the sand. For any potential real move back to the downside or at least a couple of two, three day corrections, the NASDAQ's going to need to lose 348. There's no other point of reference. There's no possible way you could get a move down to 330 without the NASDAQ, unless the QQQ's lose 348. It isn't possible. Unless you levitate your account from 354 to 330, unless we lose the 10 day moving average and the bears reclaim this 348 level, it's never going to happen. So it would be very, very important to be important about that. The SPY, same thing. Again, looks like an exhaustion channel taking place into the upper Bollinger band. Again, does any of this mean we're going lower Monday? None of this means we're going on Monday. This is just price action that is being discussed and now I'm formulating an opinion from Monday's session. Does it play out that way? Who the hell knows? That's why it's a plan, right? It's not a guarantee. It's going to play out that way. It's a plan. And unless you have a plan, unless you have key elements, unless you have points of reference that you can trade off of, all you're doing is guessing and nobody wants to guess for a living. For the SPYs to start going lower, if you believe this market is guessed out, well, the SPY is going to need to lose this 426, right? If we could lose 426 and we've held now 426 three times in the last four days, well, that's going to be the point of interest. Again, you don't want to short the SPYs unless they lose 426. It doesn't make any sense to try to guess at the top. And that's, again, it's going to keep you absolutely safe. When you look at the other individual names, you'll kind of see some stocks stuck in the middle of the channel. Some stocks are trying to get above their channels. But again, there's not a really clean view of the market. We talked about Tesla. We talked about NVIDIA. Again, getting pretty tired as well here in NVIDIA. NVIDIA tried to crack them the top of the market. We actually had a great pivot on the video from 91 to 97 on Monday, on Friday. But look, again, it got rejected off this top of the channel here. Now, again, if you want to look at the video and you say, hey, I think there's more downside, wait for this 10-day to confirm. Again, why sit there and try to put on positions if the price action's not near a technical breakdown just makes absolutely no choice? Again, guys, put yourself in a position of strength. Okay, don't guess, don't anticipate when not that smart. Wait for these levels to break. If they break, price action should follow. If they don't, guess what? The other side of the equation comes into play. And that's the whole point of trading both sides of the market and being prepared on both sides as well. Again, if you look at some charts that look pretty good this week, like look at META, right? At least META had a really, really big run, came back in, got rejected off the 5-day moving average, right? If you're looking for a long-buyous trade, watch META, right? If META starts building above the 5-day, and again, now it's still $3-4 away, but if META starts building above the 5-day, at least you have a point. Don't guess that it's going higher. Let it reclaim the 5-day moving average. Look at a name like Amazon, for example, right? Amazon, again, has gotten rejected back-to-back days on the 5-day if the stock isn't going to go lower. Again, doesn't it have to lose the 10-day moving average? Don't guess. Again, that's the theme, right, folks? That's the theme of this video. And I said that about 19 times because eventually it's going to sink into your DNA, and you realize, well, wait a minute, maybe I shouldn't guess. Maybe I shouldn't put myself in a position that I'm trying to pick and trying to guess the closing price, I'm waiting patiently. And in case you haven't figured this out, if you're trading for a year, 10 years, 20 years, you do a lot of sitting in those bills, right? For the six hours of the day, you're probably trading about 15, 20 minutes. Just put that into perspective, right? Because of your research from the night before, hopefully, right? And your work behind the scenes, you're already putting yourself in a position to succeed. And what you're doing is not clicking the button to bounce every two seconds, you're waiting for these channels to confirm. So if you break down your trading day, six hours, right? The six and a half hours of the trading day, 15, 20 minutes, you're actually trading everything else. You're babysitting your trade, you're doing research, you're watching option flow, and you're getting ready for the next day. But it's so hard to put yourself in a position of strength with patients, and it's so easy to click the mouse. The problem is, it's so hard to click the mouse the right way. And this is where, unfortunately, a lot of traders, because of their lack of patience, because of their lack of ability to wait for price action to confirm, unfortunately, that's when they expire before their potential is reached. And that's a very, very sad thing because again, the only difference between a person trading for 25 years and a person is trading for 25 months is time, right? And time will get you better. It'll make you a better trader, better parent, better spouse, husband, father, wife, all that good stuff. And time will definitely make you a better trader. So we know our lines of the sand going into this week. On the cues, we are watching the top of the channel to break for more upside this, you know, 357 and a half, 358 level. And to the downside, we're watching 348. So no macro move, no macro opinion will happen in the stock market unless the cues get above 358 or below 348. Everything else is then in between is your research trying to pick off moves in the middle of the day, finding value, watching option flow, and hopefully be diligent and respectful enough for price action that you are comfortable in waiting until that price action confirms. For all you guys who are bringing you to the channel, if you'd like to learn pivots, right? I discovered and, you know, I discovered and molded and all that good stuff and nurtured the PS 60 theory, my version of pivots back in about 13 years for the last 20, I've been trading about 24 going on my 25th year for the last 13 years. I've been trading nothing but pivots. It's been an absolute, I think game changer my career, I think that's the best way of saying it's a very specific way and very patient way of trading. If you are interested and you've been watching this broadcast and you're watching the feed and all that good stuff, come, you know, stop by for 30 days. The worst case scenario, you'll learn something different about price action. You could see if it's for you. I think it's a very neat way of saying it. I think I share that echo with a lot of traders in the webinar and the most important part is it's a little bit of a different way to look at the market. Guys, God bless. Have a wonderful, wonderful Sunday. Hope to see a lot of you guys in the webinar tomorrow and the rest of you guys I'll see on the video. Take care. Have a great, great day.