 Welcome back, folks. Dow. Dow is up 30. Nasdaq up 61. S&P's up 12.5. Let's go over to our man, Mr. Steve Rhodes, as we do each and every Monday at 20 past the first dollar. Don't forget, folks, Steve has an outstanding show here every trading day, 12 to 1 Eastern standard time. Also has a great newsletter, a mastering probability. Really easy to get mastering probability the way you do this, folks. Come over to our website at TFNN. You're going to see right under featured content, Mastering Probability by our man, Mr. Steve Rhodes. You hit Subscribe. You can get mastering probability for one month for $149. You can get it for six months for $695, which is a savings of $199. You can get it for a year for $1195, which is a savings of $593. Now keep in mind, all of these come with a 30-day money-back guarantee, so you have nothing to lose, everything to gain. As soon as you subscribe, bottom line, Steve has a bunch of other archives and lessons in there that you get immediately. Steve Rhodes, what's going on? Well, I just heard you say that when I go to Washington, D.C., to visit my daughter, I'm being tracked. Oh, man, this is pretty intense, I'm telling you. And folks, so the end of that story, the end of my speculation, now that's a fact. This just happened, okay? This just came across. The thing that's going to be really bizarre about that, and that's, well, even watching the metals market or everything else, it's like, you know, we know how the survivalists go. I mean, you know, they like their food and all this, and they've been worrying about something like that for years. Well, that's going to affect these markets, man. What happened, the way that got done, folks, is that by some mistake, evidently, because it was a classified deal, they were asking Congress for another $1.55 million. And there's articles saying that, hey, it's still going to go on four months. Yeah, that'd be tough. Hey, that's D.C. for a minute. And so I guess the question is why? Why is it being done? Is it being done because of the threat? Is it, you know, they're going to deny everything, of course. But, you know, for the markets, I think it's going to, you know, might make a difference there. Yeah, yeah. Hey, how about this, a great weekend for the Irish out there? Yeah. Was that, did you, I don't know if you caught any of the... I did, I did. And, you know, you know, it's amazing, too. It just goes to show that, I mean, you're a big golfer. I mean, I guess, Lowry, I mean, when you're playing rough weather all the time, you know what I mean? He could handle it, right? I mean, you know, it was, I wish Nicholson and, you know, Woods were there. That's so unusual that they both didn't make the cut, you know? Well, what's interesting, and, you know, they really pointed out a number of different times during the telecast, or maybe was the coverage afterwards, you know, in the U.S. So, take, for example, you know, Saturday, we're teeing off, we get to the first hall, we get to the first screen, and at our course, if there is a lightning strike within five miles, the horn automatically blows, everybody's got to clear off the course, come in, and wait for 30 minutes. Over there, over in Ireland, Scotland, you know, they're not receiving as much lightning as we are, so they're gonna go ahead and continue to play in the rain out there. Right. And, you know, so in the U.S., we're kind of spoiled, I suppose, not really spoiled. I mean, nobody wants to get hit by lightning. No, no. You know, so we don't have that type of experience, and if you watch the, even the PGA tournaments, you know, the same kind of thing. In fact, there, they have to even be more cautious, and they take that ring, it's not five miles, it's much further out because they've got to get patrons off of the course. Yes. You know, they know they can get the tour players off pretty quickly, but how do you get 20 or 30,000 fans? But the tournament this weekend, the British Open, was just, was phenomenal to watch, and for me, I thought it was great that Lowry won. Oh yeah. You know, just an ideal story. That's a storybook, right? Yeah. It's totally a storybook, there's no doubt. And in a day and age where you typically see the golfers out there, and there are these machines, these physiques of machines, and they're working out, I think that Shane Lowry is only working out with his, maybe his right and his left hand, lifting those Guinness stouts. I know, man, it's awesome. Right? And, you know, and if you heard his quote, folks, is, you know, you know, Northern, either Republic of Ireland, or Negate Island, and his quote was, listen, we're all one country when we're talking golf. Golf brings it together. And it's so cool, man, I mean, because it's like, you know, it's like, they got some great golfers out there, man. I mean, they do. Yeah, there's no doubt. They do, pretty good golfers. Well, let's talk just briefly here about what's going on and what I see going on inside the markets. Today is July the 22nd. And we're looking at here, you and I have looked at this several times. This is the annual, this is the average annual seasonal cycle for the Dow over the last 86 years. Typically, the Dow forms a top, the summertime blues is what I'll call it, on July 21st. So we'll just say the, and it moves lower into about the October 13th timeframe. So here's how I take a look at cycles, Tom. I use these as a guideline. And then what I do is I look to see if there's any type of topping signals to the correlator to go right along with the timing of this. Well, if we take a look at all the indices, when I say all the indices, I'm referring to the Dow, the S&P, NASDAQ and the Russell 2000. For the first three, Dow, S&P and NASDAQ, we can just take a look at the price, draw some trend lines. And what we can see is that price has hit those trend lines areas. Inside the Russell 2000, this has been a struggle and has just been moving sideways for the last five, six months out here. So that says, okay, we're up at resistance, but resistance does not necessarily mean it's a topping pattern. So then when we go down and we dive down into the daily timeframe chart for the Dow, what we get, I use a handful of different tools to identify tops and bottoms. Some of those tools come from Tom DeMark. One of the tools that he created many years ago is called a sequential cell pattern out here. I won't go into the details of that, but I do teach subscribers about the TD Setup Nine Count. This is a 913 count out here. And what we can see is you're looking at the chart here for the daily timeframe for the Dow out here, it actually formed a TD Sequential Cell Count. It did that on July 15th. Now, just because you get the count does not mean that you have a top. There's a requirement there. And that requirement is you don't get the cell signal until you see a close below the close of a bar, four bars earlier. Well, that actually occurred last week on July 15th, on July 18th, my apologies. So 15th was the cell count. The 18th was the actual cell signal. And so we do have a topping pattern for the Dow, ties into the longer term trend line that we looked at as well as the seasonal cycle. So my tools say that the Dow has top, we've got these summertime blues out there. And if the unfavorable seasonal cycle does kick in, I'm not expecting a crash or a straight line move to the downside. The Dow is likely to pull back into where it had broken out. And what I use for a breakout area is I use this, I use another one of Tom DeMark's tools. It's called the nine count tool. And the low of that nine count or the high depending on if it's a, if it's a higher or lower looking at, identifies where price really took off because you needed nine consecutive closes above the bar for bars earlier. And you don't see those happen that often, but they do occur near tops and bottoms. When they don't appear near tops and bottoms, we can still use that nine count to identify where price broke out. Inside the Dow, that's 24,962. Now to confirm a change in trend, Tom, what I look at is I look for levels of support to be broken. And there I go to our task market profile tools. Here we can see that sustained moves to the upside. You'll see some green arrows. The buying opportunity is when price pulls back to the bottom of the box, that's where buyers are. But when we see the bottom of those boxes fail, that's where we begin to see changes in trend. Those would be the red arrows. Well, on Friday, we actually had a change in trend signal inside the Dow equity futures contract. On the way down, I use horizontal trading ranges to understand where price may find support. So inside the Dow, the first level of support that I'm looking for isn't about the 26,890 area, 880-ish type area. That'll become my first target on the way down for the Dow. The New York Stock Exchange had also generated a topping pattern. So Tom, for the seasonal cycle out here, I've got that we have just kicked into the summertime blues. And folks, you wanna fill that toolbox up? Steve's more than willing to let you have his toolbox. Come over to our website at TFN. You go into featured content. You hit mastering probability. You subscribe right here right now. Comes with a 30-day money-back guarantee. Steve, you have a great one, safe one. Of course, we look forward to show tomorrow. Thanks, Tom. Thank you. Stay right there, folks. Come right back.