 The following is a presentation of TFNN the morning market kickoff With your host Tommy O'Brien Good Wednesday morning everybody. I'm Tommy O'Brien coming alive from TFNN 906 a.m. Wednesday morning We got about 24 minutes to go until the start of trading and we got all the markets in positive territory right now You're looking at an SMP up 29 points trading at 43 72 Nasdaq 100 up 77 points back above 15,100 at 15,102 We got the Dow up 221 points back above 34,000 34,020 the Russell catching a bit as well up eight tenths percent Right near 2200 the Russell trading 2198 Bitcoin catching a bid off of the lows. We've got the last couple sessions. You are approaching the $40,000 price point We're trading at 42,350 crude catching a bid as well We get inventory numbers at 10 30 this morning. You got crude up a buck 23. It's 71 72 We talked to our man Teddy keg stat from forex dash trading dash unlock comm at 40 past the hour We talked forex. We'll talk a little bit of crude as well We'll see what Teddy has to say He's been a bull for a while pushing about a hundred dollar crude gold contract backing off a bit Gold's had quite a bit since the lows of Sunday night at 1742. We reach a high yesterday of about 1782 We've backed off a bit to 1774 you have the silver contract right now up 18 cents at 22 79 And on a day that we got a Federal Reserve announcement We got a press conference with chairman Powell at 2 30 p.m. Eastern time today We have the tenure right now basically flat training at 130 306 That's correlating to a yield right now of 1.32 percent in the tenure over in Europe right now You get the footsie up 1.4 percent cat cruel up 1.3 percent the Dax is up three quarters percent over in Asia We have the Shanghai up four tenths percent HSI hang saying up a half a percent right now Nikkei in negative territory by about two-thirds of a percent All right. Well, let's jump over to the headline of the afternoon We got a lot going on in the markets, of course But we are going to get a Fed decision today the debate on tape tapering just got a lot trickier Is how the Bloomberg article headlines it? Economics modeling shows how shocks at home and abroad could derail the US recovery and force a course correction From the Fed and they kind of lay out both cases in here in terms of yeah from one direction The debt ceiling deadlock China property slump right you have a lot in the face of it in terms of taking the feds Proposed taper and bomb purchases off autopilot and potentially pushing the first interest rate increase back to 2024 From the other side of that you have sustained supply chain snowlops keeping inflation higher. I mean we saw we're gonna get into it We got Fed ex earnings last night big numbers in terms of revenue But what they're dealing with they're dealing with whether it's supply chain problems. They're dealing with employee problem They're gonna pay higher wages. They're dealing with higher cost. They're dealing with all of that. That's hitting their earnings In a big way and let's not jump over it right now look at Fed extra down 15 bucks off the acceleration yesterday Kind of consolidating right near about 237. Now you take a look at this thing. We were up to 319 folks You're gonna open at 237 the low back in January is only 234 Remarkable you give it all back not many would have thought when you're trading up here above 310 pushing almost 320 in May that you actually might re give all of those back to a yearly low for the current year of 2021 but we're gonna open right near that level now we back this up to a three-year weekly for some context Here. Yeah, you're gonna come back down and test this low We had in February but folks a year before that we were trading at $88. Okay, so give it back some of the gains But when you talk about the Fed you talk about ten inflationary tendencies You're seeing it out of Fed ex this morning. They got higher cost. They're dealing with wages that they have to pay They're dealing with potentially supply disruptions higher costs For materials, etc Nonetheless Fed ex down about 15 bucks on the open today so far at 237 as we got about 20 minutes to go until that open So getting back to the Fed that's we'll see we got an announcement at 2 p.m. Eastern time all things consider the market looking for No change, of course, I should say almost and anything could happen, but no change in terms of interest rate policy No change in tapering right now, but it will be interesting in terms of I think we're gonna get a dot plot So you're gonna get your first estimation of where those interest rates go in the future And it will be really interesting to see whether chairman Powell uses this opportunity to signal any Potential tapering of asset purchases that will ensue potentially by the end of this year So the market will be waiting at 2 p.m. Eastern time as we accelerate higher Jumping over to some of the indices just to take a quick look for context of where we are You're talking about the SMPs almost give back the 50% you and that's from the run that we had from May It was almost a one-way shot. Yes We had a pullback in June a pullback in July and a pullback in August all of those pullbacks though pretty well contained in the upward Channel line we broke below that channel line Earlier really was Friday you broke for that level on Monday We really crushed out of that channel almost a 50% retracement the lows that we had on Monday We're talking about forty two ninety three Forty two eighty six would have been the exact 50% retracement Now I bring that up with some context that the SMP gives back 50% of the run But man the run that the NASDAQ has had since May right didn't even get to a 382 Look at that. You pull back on Monday to a low of 14,807 if you wanted to get to a 382 you had to go down about an extra 150 points if you wanted to get back to a 150% you're talking about almost 500 points below where the lows were on Friday it's important to have context folks of some of the gives back give backs that would be possible And you had the NASDAQ 100 go from 13,000 to 15,750 a lot of that being driven by the fang stocks I mean look at the run that Apple had right Apple goes from a price point of 123 to 157 folks they have 16.5 billion shares outstanding and you trade it up What is that 123 you're talking about 34 dollars? You're talking about almost half a trillion dollars in market capitalization that Apple gained from just a period of June To a period of September in three months There's not many companies folks that are worth more than half a trillion dollars let alone Apple adding Adding that kind of market capitalization just over that time now Let's just take a quick peek and see what kind of a retracement we're talking about on Apple Apple almost gets to the 50% actually interesting to see how that happens right in terms of Apple almost makes it there They're the biggest contributor to the NASDAQ 100 Microsoft quite the run indeed now Microsoft look at that didn't even get really below the point two three six Let alone the 382 would have been 280 you're just sitting at 294 Right near that all-time high of 305 Google shares. Yeah much the same not much of a give back at all Excuse me, let's put this on and see the run we had since May Yeah, amazing that I mean you know all the headlines that we got folks all the dramatic numbers that we got the pullbacks We bought got in the market this week in terms of Monday's action And the stocks that are leading at the most okay Google barely down off its all-time highs, right? I mean, yeah, that's a hundred and forty dollars, but we just ran from 2200 to 2900 over the period of three or four months Microsoft shares as I talked about barely a give back from 240 to 305. We're sitting at 295 now Apple did have a pullback as we just pulled up there and we'll add that back to it to see you're talking about almost making it to The 50% so contributing to some of that, but man We got a lot of strength and we got a lot of room if we really get some pullbacks in some of these equities You know natural pullbacks are three eight twos folks We're not even close to that level when you look at the likes of Microsoft Cool, etc. Barely given up some of the gains of all-time highs on these companies. All right, folks. Stay tuned We come back. We'll be talking our man Kevin Hinks from TD Ameritrade fast market Golden ratios give shape to everything in our world Represented in the Fibonacci sequence these special numbers to find the patterns that make up our universe Not even markets can escape the omnipotence of these ratios Larry Pezzavento is a 45-year market veteran who has published nearly a dozen books on the powerful patterns We find in nature and their relationships with the ever elusive markets Larry's newsletter Fibonacci 24-7 will teach you to harness the power of these natural golden ratios in order to create successful trades Fibonacci 24-7 is designed to teach the tools you need to identify and act on these undeniable and reoccurring patterns Sign up for Larry's newsletter Fibonacci 24-7 and you will also receive free access to his trading webinar trading strong trending markets Try out Larry's newsletter risk-free all of TFNN's newsletters come with a 30-day money-back guarantee TFNN educating investors What's separating you from the most successful men and women on Wall Street? 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We get the S&P's up 23 points right now We get the NASDAQ 100 positive by 51 Dow positive by 191 We got a Fed announcement at 2 p.m. Eastern time today. We got a press conference with Chairman Powell at 2 30 Let's jump over to our man Kevin Hinks from TD Ameritrade Network fast market folks every trading day right here on Tiger TV at 11 a.m. Eastern time Kevin Hinks Alex Coffey and the team breaking down The day's market action walking you through hypothetical trade setups talking about defined risk in that options market Kevin Hinks we got Fed Day man. Good morning Good morning Tommy. How are you? A big day, but and a pretty calm market here to start the day as you know, some of the China problems are easing we got some good news out of Washington and on Resolution going there. So you've got a big significantly lower you've got Indices higher and you've got Anticipation that Jerome Powell as he has done in the past Tommy is gonna get it right, right? He's gonna he's gonna thread the needle on his views on the US economy So I think that's what you're seeing in the overall market little bit news out of China Little good news out of Washington not hurting either Tommy Yeah, it will be interesting. He's got quite away with his words. He's choose them wisely He's he's a good communicator if not a great communicator out there in terms of just the way he's able to choose his message I think and I'm not, you know worried. I'm not really think there's too much volatility Kevin I'm more just interested in the way he's gonna talk about what's going on in the market and And probably this is my own personal opinion putting it into it I know you might agree with some of it But probably just kind of say hey we got status quo here We're going along and he's gonna try and find the words that that caused the market to be calm I don't envision This is me, you know that he's gonna put anything out there startling Especially with the week that we've had Monday and Tuesday. So that's why it's kind of cool You know, he's gonna get some interesting questions, man That's for sure and we'll see how he handles them at 230 but the market catching quite a bit You know, I was just looking at Kevin some of the pullbacks we've gotten I mean the NASDAQ 100 not even back Kevin to like a 3-8-2 of the move we had just since May you have Google and Microsoft I mean just barely giving up some of the all-time highs There's still a lot of strength in this market when you look at where some of these bigger stocks are. Oh Absolutely, I mean, you know, we've had a You know, you can make the case four to five percent correction in this market You've still got a lot of good news going on You've got a China situation that caused some uncertainty that looks like it's dissipating and You've got low interest rates and good earnings and at the end of the day I think we're gonna look back on this last week or so and say another dip for buying Tommy Those those those dip buyers they have been rewarded Handsomely for the better part of you could argue a decade or more FedEx real quick Interesting. What do you see for them? I mean the the they had a decent quarter, of course But what hurt them there is they had some rising costs and of course I I imagine Chairman Powell could even get a question about their earnings talking about, you know, some of the the Influences weighing on them in terms of higher costs higher wages and supply disruption weighing on that profitability What do you think as you saw those FedEx numbers come out last night? Yeah, that's kind of what we talked about in yesterday show how even though They're doing a lot of things right and they're raising prices going into the holiday season, you know They're having trouble as most of small medium and large businesses are getting employees, right? Labor has been a big problem for all these companies and yes, they've got rising costs across the board I mean just look at what is FedEx's major inputs, right? They've got Paper they've got gas For planes and trucks and of all different sizes and they've got labor to to move boxes from one place to the other So all those inputs for them are going higher and you're getting into, you know Whether you want to admit it or not the holiday season Which their business will be flying, but it's not as high-margin and some of the other times here where they're shipping for business and things like that, so Yeah, this number, but let's I can't say that It's enough FedEx is an unbelievable company doing unbelievably Great things and their ground and their FedEx Express are Surging so You know these are Questionable news on really good companies usually spelled opportunity Tammy Yeah, I mean you put it on a chart just going back a year on the think-as-one platform here And it looks like we're coming back to test the lows which we are I mean the lows this year at 234 we got a bid ask at 236 this morning But you put it on a three-year weekly on that think-as-one platform man And you see that we came into 2020 at a price point of 150 So quite the run-up it had maybe it's just testing that consolidation area and I agree man strong company I mean everything we're doing folks is getting delivered From online purchases and that's a trend that ain't going to change anytime soon is interesting though 450 million over a quarter for increased cost that's gonna give those who are arguing some of those inflationary tendencies a little bit of an argument But the question is Kevin where we go from here right as in are those gonna persist or not? And that's where the debate kind of gets so interesting And we get to find out over the next three or six months if not a little bit sooner than that with everything else going on We got Fed day we got some earnings going on we as you mentioned we got some China news out there We got markets and positive territory. What are you guys going to be talking about on the show coming up at 11 o'clock today? Kevin So three names a couple of them have earnings Darden restaurants Like voters are gonna do presentation on Darden Darden restaurants and KB homes Also has earnings another housing You know builder and then we're gonna look at Uber in the first segment of the show So Uber Darden restaurants and KB homes to earning plays and you know, frankly something that you know Their CEO came out in Uber and said we're gonna be profitable soon And we're gonna try and find out how in the world they're gonna accomplish that I mean, well, I'll be listening man. The listeners some of them if you're listening long enough You know, I have some Uber in my newsletter Kevin man. They've been hurt recently on that pullback I like to see that announcement yesterday with some strong guidance saying maybe they'll break even this quarter versus potentially losing a hundred million But quite a pullback on that again another interesting sector the economy in terms of food delivery Right door dash out there Uber lift Over was up 11% yesterday man. That's gonna be a great segment. I look forward to it We'll be watching it at 11 o'clock today Kevin Have a great day, man. We look forward to the program on Fed Day, especially You too Tommy. Thanks for having me on my pleasure as always folks tune in today 11 o'clock. You heard about it They'll be talking a little bit of retail dining in Darden restaurants They'll be talking about Uber to kick things off as well should be a great program as we come into Fed Day Sure, they'll be talking about a little bit about that Fed as well Right now folks less than five minutes to go until the open. We got the S&P's up 25 points We'll see how we open today. Interesting. We've gotten some fireworks over the last couple days on the open Interesting when you got to wait for the Fed decision Usually we may get some action on the open Once we get that kind of opening trade the opening volume supply meeting demand buyers and sellers Imagine the market may calm down a bit and wait for the 2 o'clock announcement and the 2 30 p.m. Press conference always an exciting day especially with so much up in the air in terms of what chairman Powell has to talk about and As I put in the Fed acts, you know getting back to it as I talked about to Kevin. I mean the number there 450 million in added costs from a year earlier talking about half a billion dollars that they needed to spend and they're talking about wages They're talking about reduced network Efficiency efficiencies use me and increased the need to hire outside transportation services Interesting to see whether that's a transitory influence or those kind of Wayne as we get back to life as usual Tough when you're talking about driving up wages because I don't imagine they'll be driving those wages down any time soon They might need to might be able to save some money not going out to a higher outside Transportation services, but wages going up. I'm not sure they'll be going down anytime soon. Stay tuned folks. We'll be right back Are you having fun trading the markets? 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It's possible Excuse me, but he presents the case the Fed could be forced into a sharp move next year His quote the Fed can't always be proactive They always try to be but it seems like they can be late to the party sometimes He means sometimes they're gonna have to be reactive. I mean you can only argue so long that Maybe whether it's inflationary tendencies are transitive, right? And then what happens if you wait too long and all of a sudden you got an issue where they're not transitive And then you got to play catch-up That's the big fear of that inflationary debate Diamond said that if those hot inflation figures continue into December then US policymakers will have to admit that at least part of the Price increases are here to stay. I mean he could be thinking folks that they're already here to stay and may just be hinting at Some of that. I mean that Fed ex You know, it's the stories continue to point to at least some degree of inflation persisting, right? Whether we are above 2% is a real debate there because the Fed is just comfortable with 2% They are now comfortable with being above 2% in a transitory nature as long as that's gonna meander back to a mean of about 2% And that doesn't mean that it has to go back to 1% to make up for the hot inflation They're just gonna need a 2% number It is possible that we can get back to that 2% number if you start seeing used car prices not be that big of an impact But what I'll present to you is the other side of it that we've talked about I mean you got Fed ex workers are gonna be making more money You got rent prices rising by 17 to 20 percent in some of the Florida markets You can't have rental prices to that degree folks and wage prices to that degree and oil prices going up and food prices Going up because of supply constraints and argue that all of us all of it's gonna go away It's not all gonna go away. That's my opinion. There's gonna be it to some degree I think you're seeing CEO of JP Morgan Jamie Diamond talking about that today And that was he was doing an interview there talking about yeah, the Fed can't always be proactive as I said But interesting to see him talking about and I you know, he says he doubts December People will say it's transitory when it's now been going on for quite a while. Well, you could make that argument in September folks, okay You could definitely make that argument in September inflation to me It looks like there's a part of part that's transitory and that's a part that's not that's not a disaster I would agree. It's not a disaster either. What does become tough for the market though? This is where to separate. Okay. It is not a disaster for the economy If the market pulls back from some of the multiples that are existing on some of the growth companies in particular Okay. Yes, that would cause some pause In terms of whether it's earnings growth in the future, right? Maybe those higher costs are going to hit earnings in a big way That's going to cause the multiples to decrease dramatically not going to crush the economy Okay, but it could really pull back some of those prices and we got a glimpse of that on monday Let alone if we ever start seeing some really rising yields that could weigh on some of those growth companies as well Rising yields is not what you want to see in some of those growth companies because of the multiples that they are dealing with All right. Let's jump around to some of the other stories. We're looking at today Kevin mentioned it. They're going to be talking about uber I'll be listening to kick off fast market at 11 o'clock and uber. So the key of what they mentioned yesterday they had an sec filing and They updated some of their outlooks on uber. They now see quarterly revenue 22.8 to 23.2 billion Gross bookings for the second quarter. Now. This is the third quarter. We're currently in 21.5 billion So they're looking for 22.8 to 23.2. So an increase interesting when you look at the breakdown, right mobility 8.6 billion food delivery 12.9 That is a staggering number when you look at uber eats and the amount of money that they are taking in compared to even their mobility business They say that crisis breeds opportunity believe isn't that in chinese in chinese? I believe that the the word Crisis can also mean opportunity something like that. I'll get that saying up But crisis breeds opportunity and that's certainly been true of uber in the last 18 months. I mean uber What do they buy? They bought a couple companies, right? Do they buy grubhub? Possibly they were going after doordash initially And then they bought the alcohol delivery service drizzly. I think uber said it'll also expect adjusted earnings for interest in taxes This is the key here They're going to range from a loss of 25 million to a profit of 25 million The last time they gave an outlook they thought they were going to lose better than a loss of 100 million So they thought they'd lose about 100 million or less Now they're saying man, we might break even we might actually be profitable and the market man Anytime you can get into a company folks and look at this. It's accelerating on the open as well up another 2.8 percent today They were up 11 percent yesterday This is one of the reasons I got into this stock early on now man. We have meander to pull back folks But uber was transitioning to a profitable company before covid That was that was the acceleration that they were about to come into they were going to do it before the market anticipated They were going to become a profitable company Covid throws everything in flux for many companies, especially ride handling companies in particular uber benefits at least over that time Now i'm giving you the bull case here. Okay, because we're in it But they take the opportunity as their CEO said And they grow the uber eats business over that time now business travel is not coming back to the degree that it was anytime soon But recreational travel and just daily life travel of uber I mean I I often said that uber has now become a verb in the english language anytime a company's name can become Uh a verb that many people use let's uber to the party That's something that's here to stay and you're seeing a lift I mean this is a weekly we have here So quite a bar we have going on back to the daily though you see the acceleration yesterday We've broken out of that downtrend on uber and just like that we get back to prices That we were trading at almost four and a half months ago in may 11th Uh uber and nice to see it back above that acceleration because you look at the earnings that we had in may You had volume of 79 million shares But man this thing yesterday plow was higher on 106 million shares be interesting to see what they talk about on fast market If they kick off the program with uber Uh another one of my companies in terms of a story of uh good and bad disney on the flip side yesterday Not what you want to see up a little bit with the market today up two thirds percent, but disney their ceo bob chepek chepek Speaking of the goldman sacks conference yesterday talking about potential production delays on some of the Production that they have going on that could hurt potential subscriber growth Let's get into actually what they talked about here to get the exact numbers. They're talking about and so what he had to say Production delays will temper the growth in new streaming customers this quarter. That's what sent shares down about 4.2% yesterday They have 61 movies and 17 episodic tv's in production The rise of the recent delta variant of cova 19 that's resulted in some shutdowns You also have an expiration of subscriber offers in india, which they've seen some dramatic growth as well as latin america um They are looking for low single digit millions of subscribers I mean that's probably what like 2 million 3 million subscribers for the current quarter The market was looking for more than that They um, they're pushing it off though They're saying this is not going to affect our longer term number of the market Not quite sure that that's going to be the case with the sell-off of 4 plus percent yesterday We're very bullish and confident about our long-term subscriber growth, but we're going to see a little bit more noise That's one way to categorize it by the ceo Then I think maybe the street expects in terms of our ultimate projections quarter to quarter Excuse me folks and you know noise. I mean, that's the argument that everybody's making with the jobs misses, right? We miss our non-form payroll. They say that's a little bit of volatility right now with the delta variant We're going to find out folks over the next three six months Whether that's volatility or whether that's a trend that we're in stay tuned folks We can come back with teddy keg stack. We'll be talking a little for it. We'll be right back Are you in the market for buying or selling real estate in the bay area Including the surrounding st. 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That's tfnn.com then hit watch tiger tv Welcome back folks. We have the smps right now positive by 17. We got a fed day We got an announcement at 2 p.m. Eastern time. We got a press conference at 2 30 Let's jump over to our man teddy cakes that every wednesday at 40 past the hour folks We talked to teddy. You can reach teddy every trading day at his website forex dash trading dash unlock.com Teddy teddy cakes that good morning Good morning. Happy fed day. Happy fed day, man. Always a little exciting We've had a few fireworks in the markets in general since the last time we talked to you last week Uh, what do you see going on right now in this market? No, what do you want to talk about the fed the uh, the chinese fund problem? I know right? Let's start with the fed. Why not? I mean, I'm not sure if you were listening We were talking to you know, kevin hanks talking a little inflation I'm not sure if you saw fed x had their numbers out last night Almost half a billion dollars in extra costs in the last quarter dealing with wages dealing with supply constraints, etc Um, you're looking for anything today in terms of what we'll see out of either the statement or the press conference with chairman powell Uh, I think it's going to be more the same. I think they're going to downplay inflation I think that they're going to obviously they're not raising interest rates. I mean that would be that would be a shock So, um, I think the only thing that you can really listen for is Are they going to you know, they they said they're going to start tapering, you know So maybe they change that speak today and say that maybe they're going to not taper as quickly as they were initially thinking of doing a few weeks ago That's maybe the one change you might hear from out of them today outside of that It's going to be the same blah, blah, blah inflation is not a problem. It's under control Everything's going to be fine. Blah, blah, blah, you know, because they're not going to admit a problem So we're four years into it, you know So, um, I'm not sure if you heard he's talking about jp Uh with jamie diamond out there early in the show and just talking about that He's already hinting I think a little bit in terms of what he may think and that maybe the fed can't always be proactive They could be but the the logic they're using there is is maybe leading and this is me putting some of my bias in there Um, you know, what they're saying right now is if they hold on to that past the point that it's undeniable Then it might be a little too late and they'll have to force that action Because when I see the stories out there about fedex, right? I see I mean the florida Real estate markets heading along with many markets, but we have rent prices rising 20 percent man I see stories all the time whether it's miami tampa 20 percent rental prices wages increasing Supply constraints going on fedex spending half a billion dollars in 90 days just to add costs to keep up with what they're doing Um, those are some factors that they're gonna have to wane pretty quickly for the transitory argument I think to hold true. Um, and I don't know how they happen, man I'll be you know, I'll I'll be the first one watching with popcorn If somehow we get a pullback in all those prices that leads to no inflation But that's gonna be pretty harsh man with everything all those factors playing out in the market Sure Well, you know also nobody thinks about the inflation caused by taxation too You know because as prices go up taxes go up too, even if they don't raise the percentage You know, so I mean that's a problem Then there's our state which they're raising property taxes again in chicago. They're doing I mean It's tied to inflation. So at the rate of inflation, you're looking at property taxes going up absurdly You know, it's driving closing businesses. They just had an announcement of a major Nursery to close that's been in the chicagoland area for over a hundred years, you know man Yeah, I mean and that's that's what we're going to start to see more and more of over the next few months And the feds in denial of it the governments in denial of it You everything is local. You can't tell everyone I talk about are you seeing the same thing in your areas? And they are saying the same thing, especially in the blue states You know, so I mean six months. I guarantee you a year from now Most mom-and-pop restaurants in blue states will no longer be open anymore You're only going to see big cheer only options will be like going to Gibson's, you know, like the lettuce entertain you chains, you know, dart and olive garden, you know, catholic Well, I hope not. Let's give you those businesses some business folks because yeah, you need those for sure That's why I those are the only ones I support right. I agree. I agree And they even say it they say their foot traffic is down. The only thing keeping them going is carry out You know, that's probably one of the toughest areas of the economy, right mom and pop restaurants over the last 18 months, man With all that's going been going on just uh, whoof just quite a tough deal. I'm sure So the markets, especially with the interest rates and the and the currencies, you know So and I think that the fed right, you know, like I said, we're not going to see much You can see the bond market the 10-year market. They haven't done anything for the past 24 hours, you know Yeah, it's normal the dollar is very mixed today You know, you have um dollar weakness in some of your majors But you also have dollar strength in some of your majors, you know So I mean like the pounds down today the euro is up the swisses down You know the swisses up against the dollar to meaning you dollar swiss down It's a chop fest, you know until 115 today I would say most if you look at the charts have been going sideways, you know Are we going to get a breakout to the upside or downside? I think you really have to key off of what happens with the interest rates as it follows through tomorrow You know because the elbows are going to probably if we have any action It's just going to be a big range trade today We're not going to set any course of direction, you know because the fed's not going to do anything today That's going to be a surprise Yeah, you know Yeah, and it is almost surprising and that and I agree with you But that they that they've not been allowed to but then the market really hasn't freaked out at all With the delay that we keep seeing right and saying that well, you know, I thought we're going to get the jobs back in I mean remember the when was the first month we had a million dollar Excuse me a million job non-farm payroll estimate was it like April or or you know what I mean? I mean the first estimates man When we were going to roar back coming out of the vaccinations that were happening in where there was march, right? April may and things were just going to charge out of that and each time we've kind of missed The market's taken the best case scenario approach I think is what I find so interesting to saying well We missed but if you look at you know like last month's non-farm payroll Say well if you look at it on a three-month average we're doing 700,000 It's like well, you weren't saying that beforehand when we were looking for you know 700,000 for that month and we really got 200,000 now. You're just giving me the well explain the best case scenario situation Um, and they could be right. Okay. Like I think you know, I know you got your case I got my case they obviously could be right But you're supposed to be pricing in probabilities of different scenarios And I feel like the market just isn't pricing in Enough of a probability that maybe the best case scenario might not be playing out over the next couple months, man Well, uh, October is coming up my friend. I'm looking for the s&p's to take a huge huge dive A huge and what do you where is where is huge on on the scale of where we are in terms of what kind of a Movie look for on that Oh, I wouldn't doubt that we're setting ourselves up for probably a 25 to 35 percent Correction, I mean and I think we're actually setting we're setting ourselves up for the first beginning Of a bearer market for probably the next three to four years at least Okay, you heard it folks. Here's the thing is inflation is cutting the profit margins I was listening you talk about uber it over to before the pandemic they were at negative Returns as far as I mean they were their net income was growing or their total gross income was growing But their net income wasn't you know, their profitability was just going through the floor. They're negative You know, you can't be a negative profit company That's in theory that works under you know in fantasy land But it doesn't supposed to be a finite period of time that that exists for sure Correct, you know, and this is going to hit earnings drive the markets And as earnings get squeezed because of inflation I mean people can't just blame it on wages the wages need to go up to begin with cut the upper wages And and and balance it out there should be no net effect on that one That's an argument you can throw out the window But you cannot deny the fact that costs are going up and then there's a part that you people aren't going to work And if people aren't going to work businesses can't do things they can't meet their their goals So they're they're not going to bring in as much revenue and then their costs are going up at the same time So I mean it can happen man. You got FedEx FedEx down almost 40 percent from its highs and that's a great company So, yeah, you know it's well teddy. We appreciate the update as always man I'm sure we'll have some fireworks before we talk to you next wednesday. Have a great week, man Okay, hundred dollar oil coming too soon. I love it. We didn't get there hundred dollar oil was still on it folks That oil market. It's strong man. Thanks teddy. Have a great week, man. 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That's 877-518-9190 This segment is brought to you by thinkorswim for more information Just click the thinkorswim banner on the front page of tfnn.com Welcome back folks. We got markets in positive territory. We got fed day coming up in about four hours We get an an announcement at 10 o'clock today We get live programming all day folks Basil Chapman's up next fast market coming up at 11. They'll be talking a little bit of uber They'll be talking a little bit of Darden restaurants in there as well as some other equities We have our man larry at 12 Steve Rhodes at 1 Dave White at 2 o'clock He'll have some action during fed hour and tom will Brian my dad wraps things up from three till four Live programming all day at tfnn jumping around to some of the other stories out there I love the streamers of Disney netflix catching a bid today and I think this is a great move on their behalf because one of the reasons That I often talk about that I love Disney so much is the number of brands that they have that they can rely on for future content Netflix going to buy the entire catalog of charlie and the chocolate factory author roald doll So he died in 1990. I believe this is his estate and they had already leased this That brand for yeah Several doll works have already been adapted into movies and received acclaims. So they have willy walk in the chocolate factory Remake of the film netflix had already been working on a series on charlie and the chocolate factory and matilda the musical They got james and the giant peach in there a bunch of different ones they had in there I don't know if they haven't in here. They paid About 500 million they talked about potentially for that three-year deal alone So this one expected to fetch some big numbers But that is what you need To be a streaming company folks you need content brands because one of the things I would always say is Tell me one thing that netflix has that you can merchandise and yeah, there's stranger things potentially I know there's some merchandise out there But compare the merchandising ability of netflix's content Versus the merchandising ability of disney's content and it gives you an idea of the content that disney has I mean disney's got star wars Marvel let alone mickey mouse donald duck and everything that goes along with disney that they have disney's got fox in there They got the simpsons they got everything right netflix needs more of that and you're seeing it Especially when you get into kids too One of the things I always loved about disney i'd say you got kids in the house folks You're going to order disney you're never going to cancel I think netflix is onto that so a good move on their behalf and they are right up to the upper boundary Of that recent consolidation after pulling back but a strong move on netflix All right folks stay tuned gonna be an interesting day in the markets We got all the markets in green coming in to a fed announcement at two o'clock today Thanks for joining me folks. Stay tuned. We got our man basal chapman. He's coming up