 Felly, mae'n ddweud bod yw'r ffordd hynny yn ymweld, mae'n ddweud hynny'n ddweud hynny, mae'n ddweud hynny yn ymweld, felly mae'n ddweud hynny'n ddweud hynny, ac mae'n ddweud hynny yn y dyfodol y twelwch am gyflawni, a gwnaeth i gyd yn ffocwsau dros y peth yn ddweud hynny. Yn y ddweud hynny, mae'n ddweud hynny yn ymwybodol y set of y rhaid, ac mae'r gwaith i'r analysau hynny yn ymweld i'r ccc i'r hynny, Dwi'n rwyf wedi bod yn gweithio hefyd, yn ym mwylo'r newydd yma, pan byddai'n gweithio'n gweithio'n ysgrifennu yma yn dweud y sefydlu. Roeddwn i'n mynd i'r cwmwysgol, ac byddwn i'n gofyn i ddweud'r gweithio'n gwirio, Tom yn gweithio'n gweithio'n Gweithio'n David Jofie, o'r fath o'r ddiogelio'n dŵr o'r cyfnodau yma ar y cyfnodau gwaith yma o'r cwmwysgol, I feel very privileged to be able to present this analysis to you this morning. They're with us on the webinar and we will hear from them later in the Q&A. And last instruction before we kick off is please if you haven't already downloaded the reports that we have published today, take some time to read them. They are I think a real route map for Welsh emissions and perhaps even the Welsh economy and Welsh society so that's the importance I think of what we are about to talk about. So let's move on to the first slide and just a short word on methodology and this is not the place I would normally start a presentation but I think it merits it this time. James you could just rattle on to the next one. Thank you. We have brought the full CCC toolkit to bear on the challenge of Welsh emissions in the reports that we published today. Our work draws very heavily on the UK work that we have been doing and you might have seen reported over the past few weeks to build an assessment of how the UK itself can get to net zero and the way that we do that which again I won't go into too much detail on is that we build bottom up a set of scenarios, abatement strategies, literally thousands of measures across the economy to understand how we can cut emissions to meet the statutory targets for the UK and for Wales. In this assessment we are advising a new target for Wales so we've used that apparatus which is based fundamentally in the science of climate change itself and the commitments that the UK made on the international stage under the Paris Accord. So everything that you hear today is going to be compatible with that. So far so good but what we've also done this year is bring this more scenario based approach to bear on the challenge of Welsh emissions. In common with the UK what we've been doing is trying to understand in some detail how we can get to net zero through a range of different paths. Last year we advised that the UK should set a net zero target of by 2050 for all greenhouse gases but we could only model just as Becky said a 95% reduction for Wales by that date. This year we take that analysis to a new level of detail which is allowing us to go further to give that advice that it is now the time for Wales to set its net zero goal. So the way we've done that is with these scenarios particularly so I just wanted to just just briefly talk about that because I think it is a new and exciting part of our armory this year in bringing this assessment to you. What we have here is three illustrative scenarios for how the targets can be met so we have in the red corner there the headwind scenario which is very similar to the assessment that we made last year in our net zero report. That's a world where we are getting to the goal of net zero by making lots of centrally planned infrastructure decisions. Carbon capture features very highly and strongly in that scenario and lots of hydrogen provision as well. The engagement scenario is really interesting scenario that's one we wanted to explore while people are more responsive to the challenge of cutting carbon. Businesses too are more responsive so it's a world with lots of behaviour change and for me the most interesting of the three scenarios that we have here today is the widespread innovation scenario. That's a scenario where we're looking at changes to technology, those technologies that drive us to zero carbon being more readily adopted. It's also a world where we have a very cheap power price so it's an electrified world in particular so those three illustrative scenarios all get to net zero under their own steam. They're each exploring a different theme of the transition ahead so infrastructure, behaviour change and technology or innovation. They each get there under their own steam. They're not however the only way of doing it so we deliberately put these scenarios together so that we can understand a bit more what those paths might look like. That has allowed us to build a fourth scenario so James if you move on this is our tailwind scenario and this is something we were really really keen to explore in the CCC building on the work of last year's report on net zero. We wanted to explore a world where everything goes well so we get the best of the infrastructure, the best of the behaviour change, the best of the innovation. We bring all that together. This is a world that gets to net zero early and you will see in a second implication for Wales. It's a highly optimistic take on what could happen. Interestingly though it only gets there a few years earlier so for me this scenario is most interesting because I think it demonstrates that the target that we're recommending for Wales today and the target we have now enshrined in law for the UK is genuinely ambitious. Really really tough target to meet but of course appropriate for the needs of the Paris Agreement. Lastly that allows us to build the thing that we're going to be talking most about after this today is the balanced net zero pathway. Again I'll show you in a second what this means for Wales but this is the fifth of the scenarios that we have built for emissions abatement. The goal of this scenario is to try and steer a course through those other illustrative scenarios, a more balanced course. We've looked at those bottom up strategies in every sector. We've tried to pick out the changes ahead that we regard as being moderate, balanced, achievable and crucially what we're trying to do here is progress as much as we can through the 2020s and keep hoping the options in those illustrative scenarios through the 2030s and 40s keeping those things in play with the things that we are recommending on that balanced pathway. So let's move on then to what we are actually recommending James and thanks very much we can move on to the next slide James actually. So this is the key chart these are new recommendations for Wales. The headline here is that we are recommending a net zero goal by 2050 net zero for all greenhouse gases but we will need real ambition to get there and in effect this pathway amounts to bringing forward the old 80% target from 2050 to 2035. That's the implication of net zero for Wales, hugely ambitious and we are going to run out shortly of coal-file power plants to close so we're going to have to make more and more effort to get to this kind of goal and we'll have more on that in a second. We think this path represents a fair and a credible contribution to the UK's net zero target which is in turn an ambitious contribution to the global agreement made in Paris really important to say that. The path that you see here is consistent with our recommendations for the UK's sixth carbon budget which we launched last week and it's also consistent with the UK's NDC the 2030 target for emissions which Boris Johnson has now submitted to the UN process again in line with our advice so this is all bringing this together in a very consistent way. This is genuinely ambitious we think but also genuinely achievable as a path and crucially it's a front-loaded path so if you could look over the next 30 years of emissions reductions for Wales divide that into two 15-year chunks about two-thirds of the required emissions reductions over the next 30 years would be achieved in the first half the first 15 years. That's important because it will minimise the cumulative contribution that Wales is making to the problem of climate change cumulative emissions it's also a statement that we need to invest early that will support the Welsh economic recovery after COVID of course and crucially and I think it is the crucial point we are opening up the options by going early on that transition opening up the options to create new industries new employment the options to go even faster potentially on emissions reduction later. You can see here that we're recommending a tightening of the second Welsh carbon budget period to 37 reduction 7% reduction from 1990 that's at a minimum to account for the early closure of Aberthaw power station and we've also set out recommended targets for 2013-2040 so those interim targets are 63% at 2030 89% at 2040 so I hope you can see the shape of that chart if we just move on to the next slide I'm going to show you the paths to those illustrative scenarios that I talked about and just have a look at the shape of that chart it's an inverted S if you can see it overall that tells the story tells the story that initially what we're doing is scaling up at the outset of this journey ahead of us ramping up the policy effort preparing consumers preparing businesses for the things that will come next then we get this very rapid fall in emissions over the 2030s as you hope you can see there really sharp falls across all the scenarios this is a chart looking at emissions reduction in Wales without engineered removals we have natural removals in there but not bioengine with CCS or direct air capture that tells you a little about the internal discussion that the CCC went through in coming to your recommendations we have two or three of these scenarios getting to net zero without those engineered removals but look there's some of them that aren't so this is this is a tight a tight proposal our balanced net zero pathway as you can see here without removals doesn't get all the way there in the end though we think there is enough flex in the things ahead of the next 30 years for Wales to set that next zero goal with confidence now but my earlier point still stands that clearly rests on upping the policy ambition at now pushing as hard as possible now to deliver those sharp emissions reductions in the 2030s so that decade ahead of us is really a decade when we need to make strong policy decisions and then we get the response after that in terms of emissions on the next slide thanks just another take on that here you can see james on the next slide oh that's not the right slide never mind i'm sure we can work that out another take on that you could the balance pathway that we're recommending and the range of possible emissions reductions that we think are achievable and we've looked at in the chart at least in the document you'll see there is a chart looking at the range of emissions that we think could come with those engineered removals that i just talked about the difference between the the line i've just shown you on this chart the balance net zero pathway and the and the and the pathway that we're recommending today to net zero is made up either by greenhouse gas removals or doing more on cutting emissions more generally across the the welsh economy we think there's the capacity to do that it would take about four percent of the total uk greenhouse gas removals that we're recommending to close the welsh gap so there's enough capacity in there to do that now we go in an adventure to see what the next slide is so james let's see what there is there uh let's move on from that one okay good back on track so um supporting the uk targets and the international effort is what i would like to talk about next and let's talk about how these recommendations fit with those uk recommendations that we made last week next slide thanks this is the uk version of the recommendations that we are talking about today again note that s shape for uk emissions which again is telling that story that i've just told about wales but the need to scale up the uk ambition early and see the return in terms of emissions reductions over the 2030s just a few things to note on the uk chart we're talking again about an increased ambition which is the product of having set a net zero goal last year um so the old 80% target that the uk used to have for cutting greenhouse gas emissions has now been brought forward by 15 years for the uk as well you can see on that chart the 2030 ndc recommendation that we made as well at least a 68 reduction which the prime minister then took to the un at the weekend um these are the uk carbon budgets and you can see that broadly they're in the right the right place at the fifth of the uk carbon budgets is the last blue chunk that you see there and that the importance of that ndc recommendation is that there is a there is that that budget is loose so it's really important that the prime minister has made that commitment but just look at the drop there in the in the orange sixth carbon budget the recommendation that we've made next year we will find out whether ministers in west minster are happy to legislate that recommended target we of course hope that they will now having seen that chart and the welsh version we thought it might be useful just to set out a comparison of the effort so next slide thanks james so this is the comparison of the effort between wales and the uk as a whole and you can see i hope how well matched that effort is over the next 30 years we're stripping out removals and aviation here slightly steeper fall initially uh in welsh emissions before we level off and then a plunge in welsh emissions if i can put that way over the 2030s and then we matched quite well the uk uh as a whole the chart for the uk over the 2040s we think this is a fair burden share overall um and you can see how how closely matched that ambition is for the whole of the uk and wales and it's a measure of the the journey that we will be making in lockstep so wales is not making this journey alone this is a uk wide journey and overall the effort that's needed to get to welsh net zero is being matched by the uk as a whole a final chart on this thanks james next one just looking at the share of emissions abatement from wales as a part of the whole uk again so another take on this eight percent roughly of emissions today are welsh across the uk and we're doing eight percent of the total abatement in wales as well it rises a bit to around nine percent over the mid 2030s to reflect the fact that there is a bigger fall then too but again another measure of the you know an equal and fair burden share across the uk for the for the goal of getting to net zero across the uk okay let's move on to the next slide and lastly this is one of my favorite slides really stunning chart comparing wales to the global effort and i just a bit of explanation about this chart here we're looking at per person emissions globally so this is the this is the requirement of the paris agreement if you were to look at emissions per head of the population globally and interestingly what you see on this chart initially is that flat line that black line which is the historical emissions per head story across the world and surprising to see that for some we have been flat lining on on that basis over the past 30 years we've been growing the population which is being pushing emissions up now what's necessary to reach the paris goals of well below two degrees centigrade warming threshold or best efforts for one and a half you can see in the two colored lines on that chart so we need to turn that black line and then follow preferably the green line there which would take us to one and a half degrees and you can see how that works the global goal here is to get to net zero somewhere in the 20 70s on that path to be compatible with the temperature agreement reached in paris now the reason i like this if we can just overlay the path that we're recommending today on that chart thanks james wales is very obviously starting from a higher place than that global average it's also starting from a higher place than the uk average again on a permission per head of population basis thanks to Welsh industrial emissions so wales is higher and therefore the fall must be steeper to net zero by 2035 wales has passed that two degree centigrade line i hope you can see that there and around 2040 it's hitting the one and a half degree line and then we've gone past that by 2050 so that is a measure of how ambitious this target is again it's the right target for wales and we're we're recommending that today on this basis we also think it's a fair contribution especially as the uk way pathway stays within that one and a half to two degree corridor of of emissions per head over the next 15 years but really stunning to see that that's that that's a measure of the progress that we need to make over the next 30 years and a really interesting story historically since 1990 as well okay let's move on then to the more interesting question of how wales can deliver that outcome and let's start with i think the prettiest chart you will see today we call this our rainbow chart and this is the this is the emissions abatement necessary for wales to get to net zero and what you can see here i hope is that it's made up broadly of four strategies to abate carbon across the Welsh economy the first of those is the kind of purpley stripes at the top that's reducing demand for high carbon activities second of them is the big bit that's the kind of orangey yellows and reds that's about the take up of low carbon solutions especially the orange bit which is electrification of the of the Welsh economy thirdly expanding energy supplies but doing that in a in a low carbon way that's the blue chunk and you can see how much of a contribution that's making in wales the green bit is the transformation in land and something we didn't have on the UK version of this chart is the fifth bit which is the flexibility that we think is necessary to meet net zero overall and i'll just go through these in turn so let's start with the question of reducing demand and being more efficient in line with the committee's recommendation for the UK as a whole we are in this in this advice advocating a shift in diets moving away in Wales from meat and dairy products we're also wasting less in this in this assessment so the importance of this here is that by 2050 that that might might only be a small proportion of the total carbon abatement that you see across the Welsh economy but in the early years it's really significant so it looks like on that chart about a third of the emissions abatement that we will see over the next few years comes through the demand reduction and efficiency measures this is also not just about diet shifts or reducing waste it's also about buildings becoming better insulated it's about vehicle industrial efficiency as well we think those changes can happen over time and they they tend to bring multiple benefits not just carbon benefits but also benefits to health to well-being to the economy as well so it's a really important step and it's really nice to be able to show you in this chart the second section is about to take up with low carbon solutions this is the big one for me this is where you'll see a lot of the biggest changes here we're seeing people we're seeing businesses adopt low carbon solutions buying assets that are zero carbon rather than high carbon by the early 2030s we've got to the point where all new cars and van sales all new boiler replacements and homes are low carbon in our assessment they're largely electric by 2040 you've got all new heavy goods vehicles all new purchases of those vehicles are zero carbon we've got the south wales industrial cluster and other industrial sites in Wales switching away from fossil fuels to low carbon alternatives installing carbon capture and starting story technologies at scale from about the mid 2030s that's all in that in those kind of three middle chunks there of electrification of the use of hydrogen and a sea or two capture really really important though and again nice to be able to show you how that changes over time and hopefully you can see how that really grows over the 2030s so that's doing a lot of the effort the next is the blue section this is the expanding of low carbon energy supplies this is really about cleaning up the electricity system clean electricity then we can use for transport for heating buildings and we can also use an industry in Wales low carbon electricity generation is going to shift from about 27% of the mix now to 100% by 2035 so we're looking at cutting Welsh power emissions by more than 95% in this chart we're also looking here at low carbon hydrogen supply so producing that either through electricity through electrolysis or by using carbon capture with with natural gas that we think that hydrogen is useful in a whole host of places especially in shipping as a fuel probably as ammonia and crucially in industry in those areas where we can't electrify those industrial processes so it's a good substitution for where we especially right now use natural gas for high process heat and then lastly transforming land so we do need a transformation in the way that Wales uses its land there's a nice chart i'll show you in a second about the range of options we have there by 2030 43,000 hectares of mixed woodland we think should be planted in Wales to remove that CO2 from the atmosphere we're growing that by 2050 to 180,000 hectares that is a major new change to the way that we use land that brings all sorts of benefits you can also think of it as a new a new commercial activity in it in and of itself so that's going to require agricultural land to change and the other change that's happening here is that we've got 56,000 hectares of agricultural land shifting to bioenergy production by 2050 whilst maintaining the amount of food overall that we are producing per head at the moment we've also got lots of peatland being restored there Wales needs to restore peatland and manage that sustainably as a carbon store also as a real step forward in biodiversity and in restoring nature and then that black section at the end there is the flexibility that we think will be needed to get all the way to net zero and there's you can see i hope there that it's a relatively small proportion of the total abatement necessary to get to net zero by 2050 and we think there's enough flex in the range of options that we've talked about in those four things to get to the goal of Welsh net zero with confidence so we're happy to recommend that to deal though we're not specifying exactly how to get there as you can see that that wedge grows over the late 2030s and into the 2040s and there's enough time to develop the options we think on to the next chart then and again is another one another great chart and so pleased i'm able to that we're able to talk about it today so what actually delivers that goal of net zero for Wales is in large part an investment challenge it is a challenge to grow the amount of investment that we are seeing across the economy in Wales scaling it up from today to 2030 by around two to three billion pounds each year of extra investment extra capex in the Welsh economy to deliver net zero you can see where that that capex goes in the sectors there it delivers that delivers net zero but it also delivers something which is i think in many ways more important to the story that we've been talking about today that's the stuff that's below the line so yes we do have this extra capex requirement this extra investment this extra investment cost across the economy in Wales in 2030 this is a more capital intensive discussion a more capital intensive transition than we would be doing if we weren't trying to aim for net zero overall but it also delivers not just net zero but this amazing fuel saving to the Welsh economy that's the stuff that's below the line there and what you can see here is that this is the money that we're not spending on fossil fuels anymore it's the money that's not being spent on inefficient fossil fuel technologies now fascinating and really exciting field to talk about about that saving it eventually cancels out the investment cost over time which i hope you can see that builds up over time that saving in fuel savings across the Welsh economy grows to cancel out the investment cost over time can't can't overstate really how important that insight is it's great that we can model it and show you the profile of it it means overall that the costs are now much lower for this transition so let's look at that next and just to give you a sense of how those costs overall change we're looking at the change in the resource cost which is effectively the net position of those capital investments and savings and you can see that they rise over over the period but they rise to about two billion by the end of that period but that's much much less than we thought they would be at even just last year in our assessment for the net zero report we're not saying here that this is a cost to the Welsh government important to say or the Welsh taxpayer an important discussion that we need to have about how these costs are met and shared among citizens in Wales and across the UK that's two billion or so that we get to by 2050 as I say is much lower than it was last year but it is nonetheless a real cost the reason it's come down is because we're doing less of the expensive stuff to get to net zero so less of the expensive greenhouse gas removals for example but crucially what we're plugging in here is a cheaper and cheaper power price so we've seen those those power prices fall since we produced our report last year which has this cross economy impact on the overall cost now that's really positive and of course we expect that that could continue into the future we're not assuming that we'll get those rapid cost falls into the future we do we do us do some additional fall in the cost of electricity in the future but that process of innovating cutting the cost is what's led to this remarkable fall even in just 12 months that process is what I would expect to continue but again really important to say that although the cost overall we see as relatively small there will be impacts particularly for those sectors that use fossil fuels extensively so think about the oil and gas sector and potentially the automotive sector that needs to be managed carefully very strong message in this report but the need for this transition to be fair that we consider not just the cost but also spreading the benefits as well as the cost across the economy benefits and opportunities that come with the transition that we have ahead of us especially in things like buildings retrofit and that cost is going to be in some sectors more than others so we need to consider how we can manage this in such a way that we protect industry and consumers from the cost of domestic heat carbonisation and industrial carbonisation decarbonisation and potentially also spread the benefits of where we think there will be cost savings particularly in the transition and surface transport which we now think is an overall saving to the Welsh economy by 2050 all of that said these are high-end numbers we are not here factoring in what we think would be a GDP moving investment programme necessary to get to the Welsh school of net zero the fact here is that we are modernising the whole capital stock of the Welsh economy over a remarkably small period that can only be a positive thing we think therefore there's a boost potential at least to GDP of around 2% by 2030 by making these kind of climate investments a boost to employment too and in particular as we recover from a pandemic this is not really a resource cost at all this is us using up spare capacity in the Welsh economy in a really sensible way using investments particularly when borrowing costs are low as a means to to prop up the Welsh economy in the Welsh recovery at the end of that you get a lot more than just net zero of course you get these modernised industries you get the health benefits you get cleaner air you get a better natural environment more livable homes these are all really sensible things to be doing on any grounds never mind climate grounds so this I think amounts to a really strong proposition overall and we think overall therefore that this is a cost that is that is certainly worth incurring especially with those benefits potentially the cost overall likely to be zero if you wrap in or closer to zero at least wrap in some of those extra benefits let's move on to the next slide we've also considered the well-being goals which in general we are a huge fan of in the committee this we think is a transition that matches those goals really well strong messages in our report here but the need for a just transition a fair transition and crucially one that is that is it that is seen to be fair by Welsh people the many ways that this transition will improve health outcomes feature strongly in our assessments we're going to make Wales more energy secure if we go down this journey group down this path with us and more resilient to climate change itself fits very well of course with the resilient Wales it's going to place Wales we think in the right place globally when it comes to the sustainable development goals and of course crucially the Paris agreement which we'll be discussing a lot over the next 12 months and most important of all my I've probably said this several times now this is a prescription we think for new investment and new jobs across the Welsh economy and therefore entirely worth it let's move on to the next slide thanks and lastly just to give you a sense of the enormous changes that come with this path that we are recommending today the changes implied by that goal of net zero just a whiz through the energy impacts that we're foreseeing for the Welsh energy sector these recommendations are adopted and acted upon they are awesome in every sense of the world so let's start with oil fossil fuels largely phased out by 2050 and you can see that particularly on this chart so oil down massive 95 percent by 2050 what little is left there is being used in aviation for jet fuel we move on to the next one natural gas down 60 percent today is a little less than they fall for the rest of the UK that reflects the continuing industrial use of natural gas with CCS in Welsh industry also in power generation which you can see here we've phased out natural gas use for heat completely in Welsh buildings in line with the UK advice natural gas boilers need to stop being sold by 2033 at the latest in our in our assessment onto the onto the low carbon energy changes and a doubling of the size overall the electricity system over the next 30 years in Wales to meet all the new needs that we have for that increasingly green and zero carbon electricity in transport and to heat buildings just look at the red section on that chart that's that's electrical heat we think increasingly with heat pumps over the next 30 years that is mostly supplied with renewable generation of course by 2050 we are using renewables really as the backbone of the whole power system and therefore the whole energy system as we electrify the economy and next one is hydrogen and we can't electrify everything so for what cannot be electrified we turn to hydrogen as a replacement for fossil fuel use and really a stunning increase in hydrogen demand from 2030s onward that hydrogen of course has to be clean so in its supply we're using that extensively as a clean fuel in industry and as a shipping fuel as well as you can see here and then lastly on this whistle stop tour of changes is land use and we can see on this chart the changes in land use that we have across the five scenarios and I've shown you the five scenarios here just to remind you that we have those scenarios land use is an area that really does look different across those five scenarios clearly a different range of outcomes that can be achieved in line with the goal of net zero emissions for Wales that we are recommending today it will be policy that drives these changes so the big change in our latest support is to build I think a better understanding of how diet change is freeing up agricultural land over the next 30 years we're modelling a 20% fall in meat in all meat consumption by 2030 that rises to about a third by 2050 crucially we're not just modelling a change in red meat consumption here it's all meat and that means we freed up more agricultural land than before which could be rewelded or turned back to a use that's better for nature with the right support for farmers and land managers to do that what you can see here is that there is a surplus year of land release so there's lots of options what we could do with that the big story here is probably the increase in forestry that you can see in the green sections across the scenarios in our balanced pathway forestry rises from about 15% of Wales land area now to a quarter in 2050 clearly very live policy debate with yesterday's news sustainable farming scheme news uh we haven't quite had the chance to digest that yet I had to look at the headlines last night it certainly looks like it's aiming at the right stuff so that's great so aiming at the right kind of environmental outcomes that we think would be delivered across these scenarios that I've set out for you today and the very last slide for me and very last point from me is just to highlight how much change is now on the way to drive this kind of change that I've been advocating and recommending in my presentation this morning this is just a I mean to be honest it's not an exhaustive list of the things that are coming over 2021 the policies that have been promised already by the Welsh and UK ministers it is a genuinely amazing moment if you work in policy on climate I can't remember a time like this in the 10 years plus I've worked on it we may not have a moment like it again this is really what is promised in the before the Glasgow COP next year and that's the logic of it I think is that we have all this effort stacked before the world's gaze turns to the UK in November next year and this is just what is promised there may be more over and above that and especially after the Welsh parliamentary elections next year all before Glasgow COP next year and there is a chance to end on a positive note just a glimmer that we can get things in good order before the world's leaders descend upon Glasgow of my hometown next year and I think that would be a really wonderful outcome complementing the new targets that we really hope and expect now that Wales will set on the basis of this advice so I'll stop there and just to say thanks very much for tuning in and back to you Becky