 This is covering the spread part of the Fandall podcast network With most majorly baseball games today beginning early Wanted to spend some time and kind of do a smorgasbord kind of episode We're gonna talk some NFL news dumps talking about Deandre Hopkins primarily going to Tennessee Whether that matters how much it matters Tennessee's outlook and stuff like that And then talk about formula one in the at the hungaro ring and NASCAR and Pocono to get you ready Which should be a fun week in a racing once again This is covering the spread right here on the Fandall podcast network and number fire calm My name is Jim Sonnis. I am a senior writer and analyst for a number fire here to run through that smorgasbord Different topics for today talking to NFL and then racing later on in the show If you want to find timestamps for those check out the episode description wherever you get your podcast to Jump around as your heart so desires For the show for today We'll dive into all that here in just one second But first a reminder to make sure you're subscribed to the covering the spread podcast feed wherever you get your podcast Our women's World Cup preview went up yesterday talking to dr. 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He did not sign for big money relative to the rest of the wide receiver market and he's older So I could understand thinking that this does not matter at all In fact, the market agrees with you because uh before this signing the titans or a little before this titans There went till the seven and a half and the over was minus 105 It's still seven and a half, but the over is now minus one or two So things have actually gotten more pessimistic about them in the market than where they were earlier on That is part because the colts went up. Uh, their wind total the the odds and that did, uh Get a bit better towards the over so that's part of it But I do think it's intriguing that hopkins did not move the needle at all with the market But he did play really well last year when kyler murray murray was healthy If you look at kyler murray's passing net expected points numbers, which is number fire's epa metric When he was targeting hopkins versus other teammates, there was a massive massive gap murray targeting hopkins Average 0.55 net expected points per drop back, uh or per attempt when going to hopkins He was at 0.14 when targeting anybody else So a full 0.4 points per attempt difference between hopkins and the rest Part of that's because there were a lot of really rough receiving options in arizona last year. They had injuries A bunch of different times. Uh, marquis brown is still out of time They were cycling through a lot of guides throughout that year But even 0.55 for hopkins across 38 targets, which is a small sample is a very good number. So kyler murray was better at throwing to hopkins than to others and now we take that and apply it over to the Tennessee titans, I think the hopkins is a bit underrated I think the same thing about ryan tanahill honestly The titans were an above average passing offense on early downs when tanahill was healthy last year by a pretty decent margin And that was with robert woods trail on berks nick westbrook akina as the top targets on that team Now they have berks a second year into this offense. Hopefully healthy the full full year this time around Chicka quack a conco looked pretty good last year too seemed like a pretty legitimate player to gain for that offense now They add in hopkins as well. It's not a great receiving core In fact, it's still below average, but it is better than what it was last year We're gonna get the titans were above average on early downs throwing the football So I think tennessee is somewhat interesting The potential for them to bottom out is definitely within the range of outcomes because darry kenry is old tanahill They drafted a quarterback in the second round to try to replace him did did it third round last year to try to replace him too So there is definitely a fallout potential here That's why I have the win total at 7.7 wins personally Based on my model trying to account for the fact that there is a wide range of outcomes But again, the market has the 7.5 with minus 102 on the over So I feel like this number should have moved the other way I think that the over should be closer to minus 120 or so Somewhere in that range because of the division because of different factors I feel like tanahill May be able to play well enough to fend off leavenson if he does that should boost expectations for this team I'm not going to bet the titans to win this division because they've got the jags in that division the jags are a team I do like what a bit But I wouldn't be shocked if I see value on the titans pretty early on This year now that does not mean week one because they're facing the saints in week one on the road and my model Pretty high in the saints as well. So they're three point dogs in the road. I'm not going to take that one but Once we get into week two stuff like that I would not be surprised at all if I were to show value on the titans given that I think they might be a bit underrated by the market right now I think that hopkins does make a bigger difference than what the market is saying he makes as of right now The only other bit of news right now is that the jets traded densel mims to the lions and for the jets This does not matter because mims barely played last year Was not projected to play a lot this year, especially with all the packers joining that wide receiver room So it doesn't matter for them, but I do think it's at least somewhat important for the lions because The lions are a team that's gotten a lot of buzz this year They will not have jameson williams for the first six games and dj shark Left in the offseason now. You may not care about dj shark, but I do I think shark was a good player fit that offense kind of a field stretcher because they have a modern ross st brown who's not going to stretch this field but is a very good player They needed some kind of speed element and they did add marvin jones in the offseason sam la porta at tight end, but I don't know if you want to lean on 2023 marvin jones to be the kind of speed guy in your offense I like jared golf as a football player because golf has shown to me He can be efficient in good circumstances and last year circumstances were good and they're still okay this year But they're definitely taking a step back, especially those first six games when jameson williams is out So adding a guy like mims who can at least stretch the field with nothing else is helpful I'd rather take the chance on him personally if I were the lions than taking a chance on marvin jones in that role So It does give me a bit more confidence In being high on the lions entering this year I have the lions win total of 10.4 in my model They're at 9.5 a fan dual sports book the over is minus 122 The concerns around past catching are why I have not bit on this number as of yet despite showing value there but it does slightly Make me feel better about being high in the lions knowing that They've added at least something to that wide receiver core to help compensate for the loss of dj shark It'll get better once williams is back. Uh, that will definitely help but I don't think it's it's a nothing burger that denzel mims is there It's at least an upside swing for a team that could use some upside in that wide receiver room right now versus marvin jones josh reynolds calio Shakir Cleef raiment guys like that. So I feel like it's actually An okay move for the lions have not taken over 9.5 minus 122 personally But it's at least on my radar as a a win till I could consider at some point All right, that's gonna wrap up f l for today as again not a lot of news to break down there Let's shift focus now and talk about some formula one formula one is in hungary for this weekend. It is the 2023 debut of daniel rickardo making his debut with alpha towery filling in for enictive reason He is replacing for the rest of this year looking at the grid here looking at What to do with rickardo in his first race? It's kind of taking a combination of the speedy show last year and putting in an alpha towery car And that combination is not going to get you A whole lot in terms of modeling rickardo plus 195 to finish inside the top 10 over at fandall sports book I've got him below that personally. I've got him below yuki sanota Sanota is plus 195 to finish top 10. He's been pretty good this year And that's why I have rickardo below sanota sanota's run well relative to that car this year And rickardo has not been in that car as of yet his first drive of the season So I would not be surprised long term if I do end up having rickardo Above sanota once we get a couple of races in But at least for right now, I do feel comfortable having sanota higher in my model Then I have rickardo as of right now and I actually do show value in yuki to finish inside the points, but I think that's under rating mclaren and williams a bit Both those teams showed quite a bit of speed at silver stone. So That's something that's pervasive across my entire model this week where I think It'll need a bit to catch up on the upgrades for those two teams because typically upgrades help teams But they don't dramatically change their outlook like they did with mclaren at silver stone And to a lesser extent with williams there as well so I need to see how that translates to different tracks But I do think that i'm too low on them and as a result if i'm going to bet something this week I need it to be a bigger value than I typically would Because I do think there are some errors in the model specifically being a bit too low on mclaren and potentially A bit too low on williams as well with that in mind. There are just two bets. I'm looking to lock in right now Those are george russell the podium at plus 410 Which you can find at vandal sportsbook and then pierre ghastly to finish inside the points Which you can get out to minus 120. Let's start with russell though He is plus 410 as mentioned over at vandal sportsbook the implied odds there 19.6 percent and This is a market where if the model were to be too low on mclaren It would lead to funky values looking at russell and this is a market where Um if you're looking at past results russell has not paid off this bed very much He is just one podium so far this year that was in barcelona. We did bet russell there as well So benefited from that one podium and he's been Okay, I would say especially recently especially compared to his teammate lewis hamilton Who's been I would say the much better Mercedes driver across the past Month and a half or so But russell has finished fourth two other races He was fifth and two more as well and his pace has been good and The reason I find russell kind of interesting right now is because if you look at his pace now versus what it was Before the upgrades. He hasn't gotten that big of a bump. He was actually running pretty well Before the upgrades now has had some Funkiness and what's happened to him recently. He's had some poor qualifying sessions a couple of them Failed their hq3 and two at the past four races those being the four races outside of monica where they've had the upgrades And it's possible that those poor qualifying sessions have masked the pace a bit for russell he did qualify well in montreal, but He had issues there did not finish so I think some of russell's speed post upgrades has been hidden He finished on the podium and won the poll at the hungar ring last year I think he's a good value of plus 410 even accounting for mclaren surge I think we can still get to russell for this week plus 410 to podium pretty good number He is shorter than four four to one at most books So getting into discount at vandal sportsbook as well So george russell the podium the first bet I like for formula one for this week Other one has mentioned is pierre ghastly to finish in the point It's minus 120 is the best number you can get right now vandal sportsbook has him at minus 160 I honestly do show value and ghastly at minus 160, but You can get minus 120, you know take the take the discount where you can get it ghastly has had some weird luck this year too similar to russell where You know, he's had some races where he's had things outside of his control work against him But even with bad luck ghastly is still finished inside the points in six out of 10 races, which is a 60 Percent rates the implied odds here at minus 120 or 55 percent In silverstone ghastly had good pace but got tangled up with lance stroll there fighting for the back half of the points And ghastly also seems to be over the issues he had in qualifying earlier on this year He's had better race pace than his teammate s about okon in three straight races And that's one of the guys. So he'll be battling for the points this weekend So I show value on ghastly even at some of the books that are more aggressive including fandall, but As always shop around get the best number and try to get pier ghastly for a top 10 If you can find minus 120 take it. Otherwise, I do think there is value elsewhere as well So for f1 this week, give me george russell plus 4 10 to podium and pier ghastly minus 120 to finish inside the top 10 Let's finish up here by talking about some NASCAR at pokeno It is a very strange track because it is a triangle if you've not watched pokeno before it is very fun It has massively long straightaways, which means top end speed matters quite a bit But cornering also matters too because you got to build the momentum for the straightaway And what the car is going slower nowadays than they were before You can better hold it wide open than you used to be able to so you want fast cars this week that can also Make hay in the turn So I do care about national and gateway because both those tracks although they're not fast Do involve a lot of cornering time and I think that matters Once you combine that with like just raw top end speed My model is denny hamlin as the favorite to win this week He is 13.4 to win for me, but his implied odds are 16.7 percent at five to one a fandall sports book So I can't get there and honestly no outrides. I'm willing to bet at fandall right now Closest for me is bubba wallace. He is 30 to one couple top fives of pokeno recently But even that one i've got like point two percentage points of value So not a huge value on wallace to win either. I think if I want an outright at fandall I want to wait until after practice and qualifying to try to get a better value later on The two bets that I do like for this weekend Before practice and qualifying are a couple of top tens Those are eric jones at plus 430 and rikki stenhouse jr add five to one Over at fandall sports book certain things off here with jones. He ran really well here last year qualified 34th, but He had an 11th place average running position and finished 9th So that was great had good speed in fontana and michigan last year too So the big fast tracks were great for our jones But legacy motor club has not had great speed this year and with their moved Toyota next year It makes sense that they've kind of been frozen out and would struggle for this year If you look at six races at what I would call higher speed tracks or tracks that fit inside the pokenoe bucket Jones has just one top 10 finish that came in nashville, which barely counts But again the cornering speed does help there But jones did have good speed in charlotte before an issue ended his day early there He ran decently in fontana, which is another big speed track and this team Legacy motor club has an alliance with richard chill this racing and those cars have always been best on the big fast tracks So i've got jones at 22 for a top 10 his implied odds of plus 430 are 19 I will take that and be okay betting eric jones for a top 10 this week ricky stenhouse jr. Is also 22 in my model to finish inside the top 10 His implied odds are a bit lower at 17 so he is the bigger value between these two guys So if you had to pick between the two I would go stenhouse over eric jones as the best Top 10 value for this week at vanderl's sports book and stenhouse has shown speed this year He finished seventh in charlotte. He was 12th in fontana 12th in kansas He also had a good car and gateway before he got caught up in a wreck that was not his fault got caught up in a You know kind of hissy fit between a couple of other drivers. He was kind of innocent innocent bystander So that was not his fault good speed there though before the wreck Stenhouse at pokeno has raced here 19 times. He has zero top 10s. So that's not great But his form is better now he has six top 10s this year that is tied for the second most in his entire career for a single season and His average finish this year is the best it has ever been by a pretty decent margin So I know stenhouse has never finished top 10 here But I don't want to overweigh that in my mind and we're getting a decent discount of five to one So to me stenhouse interesting enough in five to one my favorite top 10 bet for this week over at fandall sports book and one I would be willing to make with the odds where they're at right now As far as guys to monitor throughout the weekends ryan blaney tyler retic bubble walls all guys I keep an eye on I did take blaney 14 to one elsewhere. He's 10 to one at fandall. So I can't quite get there retic I would need probably about 16 to one or so To bet him wallace 32 35 somewhere in that range I would take him But those are the three guys to me. I'm closest on relative to the market I have valian ross chastain, but his form is very very weird right now So probably not getting there But for now we'll stick with jones at plus 4 30 for a top 10 in stenhouse at five to one That is all that we have here for today on covering the spread Back again tomorrow talking to pitching ninja breaking down the pitching props strikeout props across Slate and majorly baseball talk some money lines as well Find that on the covering the spread podcast feed on the fandall youtube app and over on fandall tv plus If you've got any questions for me. I am on twitter at jim sonnis j i m s a n n e s You can also follow the fandall podcast network at fandall podcast I want to thank you all for tuning in for today. Good luck to you with your bets across thursday We'll talk to you once again tomorrow to break down some strikeout props This has been covering the spread right here on the fandall podcast network