 The following is a presentation of TFNN, the Tiger Technician Hour with your host, Hazel Chapman. Call now, toll-free at 1-877-927-6648. Hello, welcome to Hazel Chapman brand new week. I just wanted to show this immediately. This is the ESH 24. This is the 10-minute e-mini chart for March futures. I think it was around the 22nd or 23rd of this month. From this narrow rectangle formation, as I see it, I'm going to draw a midpoint line. I don't always do it, but there are some times where the pattern becomes so visually obvious that I say, okay, I'm going to make this the midpoint right here, and I say this level of 5100, that could be 5101, but 5100, is going to be the magnet line. It's not a magnet line as the 200 period moving averages. This is a magnet line that says it could be a focal point both upside and downside for a little while. Lo and behold, you were under it, then you were over it, and then all of a sudden last night, I guess it was after the 25, so that was last night at 6 o'clock. There was this dip, and you can see the blue line. I've got the Fibonacci there, but this is the pink line. It's really that same rectangle that I'm continuing all the way through. And to show you what I'm really talking about, there's that line at 5100. Oh, I can't put it further, that's right. There, and look how many times we've touched it. Here's the 200 period moving average. Look how beautiful it has been as support, but look at that. Wiggle like a sine wave over and under, and over and under, that's 5100. So we keep it there, and see how long that lasts is an important, at least in a very short term, I think it's really important. Let's get out of that one. I want you to show you this. I got an email to have a look at Boyd Company, HShares. This is a Chinese EV company. And my contention has been, maybe in the world, I'm not sure, but they are one of the highest, certainly in China, where if it's China, there's probably the world. The highest number of selling electric vehicles. Well, it went from the 40, this has four zeros after that, but let's just call it 40 right here. The high that was made back in June of 2022, the round number was 35 low, and the high was 43.61, right? This is in June of 2022. So the 45 level sees it drop by half. It comes down to the 21, 42, 21, 29 level in November of 2022. Then it makes the arch formation. What I said was, if it takes in this Chapman dreaded H pattern, looks like an HC, lowercase H, arch formation fails. If it takes and closes on a monthly basis below 21, 29, I'm going to make it 21, zero, zero. If it closes under that, that's not very good action at all. Otherwise, this could become an arch formation that becomes a very favorable U shaped pattern if at some point closes above the high, in this case 35, 36, 27. That's the high of the seventh of 2023, that's July. Well, it's trying to come off the low, and I said, look, it's closed under the, when I looked at it just recently, I said it closed under the 200 period moving average in the weekly chart, and if this is the biggest seller, it's not doing that well. Now that it's made this low at 2180, 21.80, and trading right now to 4.33, I think there's a chance that it could do quite a bit of work to the upside, especially if the FX side, let me get to the FX side in a minute, which is the large cap, two separate things entirely. This is a large cap Chinese ETF, and I don't believe BYD is in it, but I wanted to say that, look, it's trying to fill this gap again. It did it once, it didn't close above it, but it's trying to do again. If we can get to the 50 period moving average of 25.10 this week, without taking out 20, what's the load today? Today's load is 20.76, without taking 23.20 out, I'd say that that's really good. So if the question was, where is BYD going? This is not Boyd. Is that the Boyd? Yeah, BYD. This is BYD company, limited Chinese company, and I'm just saying to you that there's a good chance that there could be a pretty decent rebound and that the 200 period moving average of 25.57. I don't know whether that's going to be a repellent or a propellant because if it breaks above it, but that is your target. It happens to coincide exactly with the weekly black 14 period exponential moving average. So just keep that in mind. Those are the levels that I'm looking at. Let's go to the market. So I'm anticipating we're going to see some kind of profit-taking I don't know how severe just yet to remember. This is really important because to have the market going to a sell signal and then a sell mode. I just don't see how you can do it unless you've got bad news and the market responds by dropping 58 to 62 points for two consecutive or more for two consecutive days in the futures or it could be the S&P and at least 370 to 420 for two days. Once that happens, you've really knocked out all those people that have been buying up at this level right now who don't have any protection and just saying, I like this for the long term and they're going to, it's not going to be pleasant. For instance, I can't say that this is going to happen, but believe me, it is on my list of things to watch. It's really important. Arm holdings had a round number 164 high about two and a half weeks ago. It then pulled back to 100. That was 117 round number, but the low was 115.49. Now, today it opened at 139.00 is trading sharply above it at 147. It could have a rectangle, it could retest it high. And what I'd said is for people who had asked me, I said, as far as I can see it, it's really important to take a little bit of profit on all of these big moves up, at least take something off. Yes, it can go back and go even higher. It's only a leg A in the monthly chart. I suspect it's going to go to a D in 2024, maybe even 2025. Who knows? But at this particular point, I would consider it not good money management to at least take something off. You could have taken off at 160 in the 160s and put something back in the 120s and here it is at 130. So all I'm saying, money management just said to me, that was my answer there. And if you're looking at NVIDIA, so I'll talk about the round numbers in a minute because I do believe I need to keep notating them and see exactly what happens. I've never seen this number. So I don't have any history other than most of the time, and I've seen round numbers at either all-time highs or yearly recovery highs. That's usually a signal to say that someone got left holding the bag. I think that was a Joe Granville expression, holding the bag. And that just means you're stuck with this, right? Well, 823 was the high. 823.94 was the high two sessions ago. Today it opened at 797 and it's trading at 794. So it's a little bit lower than that. But all I'm saying is that I can't tell you right now, but by the second, by the third week of March, and I'm looking at this, I would not be surprised at all if most of these really big high flyers with round numbers are trading quite a bit underneath. Not a big sell signal, but pretty much underneath these round numbers that they've been achieving lately. I'll be back. I'm expecting some pullback today. If you're looking for potential trading setups in the stock market, then Rocket Equities & Options Report is a newsletter you should try. 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Sign up today and become a part of this educational community of traders. Just visit the front page of TFNN.com. Toll free at 1-877-927-6648 internationally at 727-873-7618. Hi folks, so let me just go on here and a couple of people asked me over the weekend and I've been doing quite a bit of work on this about the IWM, the Russell 2000. So the ICHA is Russell 2000 ETF. The IWM is trading at $200.73 up 85 cents. It's kind of stuck in the higher part of its range in the dating and weekly charts, but it's still 244.46 back an all-time high, November of 2021. It comes down to the 160s. Test that three times. It's done that over the past year, actually year and a half. And now it's pushing up towards that rectangle, the highs of it. There's no question in a market like this that at some point the small caps, but it's the small cap 2000s that is going to be very important. But wait a minute, small cap, you've got super micro computer, ELF, this is a SMCI, had an all-time high of 1,077.87, drops to 700, just under 700 in two days and from making a high to that low and then bounces up makes a 995 round number high. Today, did I put it in? It had an 832.02 low. There was a moment where it had an 834 round number high. That got taken and certainly got taken out. Well, no, sorry, that was on Friday. So today's high is 895.96 is trading at 861.63. SMCI in the IWF, ELF, an incredible stock. Look at this. ELF made an all-time high. We were talking about ALTA. And I kept saying, ALTA beauty, ALTA beauty. Look at this, it's amazing fashion. People don't give up the creams and all that until times get really bad and can't afford it. So this is usually the last to turn down and then suddenly out of the blue, 560.60 in May of 2023. What happens? Oh man, it drops in one month. It dropped from the 560 level down to the low 400, just about 400. Try to rally, bounce to the just about 500 and it came down to the most recent low of about 3 in the 3.5360 area. And all of a sudden it's had this huge move now. I'm going to call this, for those of you who use Chapman Wave methodology, look, this is a low with an up arrow because bicycles obviously in a buy mode. MACD, everything's very strong. Stochastic is at 97.58%. When I get this, I automatically do, look, this is just a fraction, 417.41. This is ALTA, ULTA's assemble, up 3.468.553.24. Well, the week of the 17th of November of last year, it hit 417.41. The next week at 417.98. Maybe that's just a couple of pennies more than I'd normally do, but just to be safe and to be ahead, I always call this, I would call that an A, but I'd make it a red A saying that's a phantom peak. It's not real in the Chapman Wave methodology, but it's real for me visually because it makes more sense that this is, with a move up so sharp that there was some, if you can see a flicker, which I can see right there in the on-balance volume, I say, you can take it as a phantom peak Y. It's good to be ahead of the game because this I've got writing now as a leg C. It hasn't quite made a new high. 553.74 is today's high. And on Friday's high, it was 553.65. So we've made a new high. So yeah, this is a leg C, but it's basically a phantom C because it's really a B, but I like to be ahead. Not only that, you had the previous high, major high of 560.60, right? And yeah, we are at 553.74. We're just an eye blink away from testing the all-time high in a beautiful U-shaped pattern. And they call this a $553 stock at mid-cap. Anyway, that's the way things go because eventually mid-cap sometimes gets so overblown that they have to be pushed into a higher category, but they stay there for quite a while. So that's ultra beauty. And let me just show you something in the dating chart. Look, here we go. Oops. There we go. That's an A. That's an A. That's a little A right there because it's under the previous A. So I'll call that a gray. I am not going to do it right now. That becomes a B, an overlapping B. That's really good. Then it goes to a C right there, a D right there, and it's in an E. It even could be an instant restart, but my suspicion is we're going to have a little bit of a pullback here. That'll prove maybe it goes to an F even, but it will come back towards the 540 area and it's trading at 54.45. So I just wanted to show you something because I was thinking, I like the IWM, the whole idea, MSTR, the whole idea of the rotation and that buyers are going to come into the small caps at some point, but it's not the small caps. It's the small cap 2000. Why? Because you've got these stocks. Here's MicroStrategy. I believe it's MicroStrategy. Yep. MicroStrategy is number three at 0.34% of the holdings. And look at this. This is amazing. It's about to go to a leg D in the daily chart, but it's at 786. And these are called small caps, but the price doesn't mean that it's not a small cap. It's just that they never split. But I suspect we're going to go into a phase in 2024 where splits become the thing once again like we saw back in 2000. And then we're going to see the fund. Now there are comfort systems. I know I did that. Comfort systems. I don't know what the symbol is. Let me see if I've got it from the weekend. I did a whole bunch of stuff. Now I'll just type. I'll do one more. Comfort systems. Let's see what that is. C-O-M-F-O-R-T systems. And it's... Oh, that's right. Fixed. I did it. I knew I did this. I thought, what a great name. Look, there it is. I did it over the weekend. Comfort systems USA. Heating, ventilation, air pipes, controls. That is America. That is America on fire. Look at this. All-time high on Friday. Isn't that... Oh, that's amazing, right? So I'm looking for round numbers, round numbers. It's in 292.41. All-time high on Friday. Fixed as a symbol. And today, let's just see. Any round numbers? No round numbers yet. But it's having a very nice session. It's up $1.58 and $2.80. So I wanted to point out, because I said to subscribers, I don't want to just go into ETFs or anything. We have a couple, and it's very important, because I wanted to be generic. I didn't feel comfortable enough that I could actually choose specific stocks in those groups. But we have got stocks that are very independent. So in that particular instance, I'm looking at the IWM. Then I thought over the weekend, let's see, early this week, what's working in the... What's working in the IWM? Well, I don't want to... I don't see any reason why we should pay $500 or something for a stock to go from $500 and something to $600 or something, where I could probably find much lower price stocks that could move the same percentage. So that's really what I'm looking for. But now you have to really look at it very closely to see what's really working. And that's what I'll be doing, because I believe we have to now move into some categories. We are already under the radar with some categories, meaning we're in some stocks that are not on everyone's radar. And they seem to be holding well and seem to be working okay. And that's important to me. I want to be in, like we've got the Microsoft, I want to be in the heavies, but I also want to be in underlings and see what they can do in the next two weeks. And I'm just going to sub-march consolidation in some areas, not all. And that's why going short is going to be very difficult. I'll be back. Currencies, commodities, and bond markets are as important as ever right now with how they're driving the volatility in equity markets across the globe, which is why it's a great time to try out Teddy Kegstad's Tiger Forex report. Teddy Kegstad breaks down the forex markets every Monday using his 30-plus years of experience as a trading veteran of futures, forex, stocks, and options. Teddy releases his weekly Tiger Forex report every Monday morning with coverage of all the major currency pairs, including the dollar index, the euro dollar, pound dollar, dollar Swiss, and as well as many more. And he also has weekly coverage of the crude oil market and the 30-year T-bonds as they both influence forex markets tremendously. 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But everything about this character right here says there's a chance that it's an instant restart and that we should come back and test this particular low right here of $5,095.25 if I'm correct about the pattern. So we'll see you about that. And right now, oh, just started to slide. It's at $5,098. Let me just finish up here. I want to show you the IWB. Now, isn't this fascinating? The IWB is the Russell 1000 ETF and it's in an alternate count. I've got this as a G C in the daily chart and almost all of these charts are becoming extremely extended no matter how you count the waves. It doesn't matter. But looking at the on balance form, looking at a number of aspects, just to say even if it's just a breather, a pullback it could then take a little time. So this is at $279.44 the all-time high was this morning at, oh it was on Friday. So $279.49 and the all-time high was Friday at $280. $259.56 peak G C could be one more little pop, maybe pulls back today and then one little pop up this week and then it could pull back. And the reason why I say, I'm talking about pullbacks, I don't talk about a major decline, is that this is a leg B in the weekly chart and the technicals with the stochastic front, you see the stochastic in the daily start to pull back. That says it's gone from the 90 something percent. There's a chance it could have a digestive phase that goes to the 20 or under 20 percent that will impact the weekly chart but at 96 and flat, you could have the daily pullback but the weekly might not go under 80 percent or might break it for just a moment and then come back. So I'm looking at this and saying this is really bullish, the IWB, the Russell Ice Shares Russell 1000 ETF all-time high leg D in the monthly it's a little extended in notation of the Chapman Wave. What was the IWC? Did I even do it? Yes, the IWC is the Ice Shares Microcap ETF this is not doing as well as the others at a triple top way back in 2021 up near 159 almost 160 and even made a double top in the at 118 or so in the daily chart has got a peak C and hasn't gone to a peak D yet in the daily and this is the Ice Shares Microcap I don't know if I've read yes at the mid caps the S&P, this is a leg D unfolding in the daily in the monthly chart 533.57 October of 2021 pulls back to the 400 level now it's a leg D hasn't taken an asset 522 about 11 points away the weekly chart has gone to a leg, whoops there it is remember the middle chart is that weekly chart has gone to a leg D right? and you've got a little bit of a struggle at a leg D going on here in the daily and that previous peak D had to pull back I wouldn't be surprised if this peak D when it finally comes this week has a bit of a pull back so all I'm saying is that just be ready for some kind of a digestive phase but a rotational one and it could be that as this one as incredible mag 7 type stocks have been soaring so when they have a bit of a pullback it could include many of the other groups but there are some that are ready to take up the slack that's the way I'm looking at and I want you to do one other thing the question came in here did Basil discuss arm? yes I did I said arm is had made a round number today round number low yet another one 139 open and yet yesterday is a 147 but most importantly the monthly chart suggested over the months this is going to go to higher highs it's only in leg A brand new leg A IPO back in 2023 pullback to the 40s 40s 50s actually and on the way up it's had a couple of round numbers even in the monthly chart but it's only had one two three six about six or seven months this is a leg A but right now I'm saying I'm anticipating some kind of a digestive phase but the reason why I spoke about arm that 164 round number high all time high that it made about two and a half weeks ago my thinking was that at the time I'd said take some money off keep your core position it's a fantastic I mean it's a great company I think they license some of the chips and that's I mean it's like a cash now I guess I don't know but that I just said take some money off it's really important for money management and then it dropped to 115 160 50 points I'd say that's a 130 something so that's a pretty big percentage pullback right now I want to get to the gold now I haven't finished the yes I will go to gold go right now is down 14 I can't believe how long I've been saying it's just stuck in a range and I don't see any I don't see a catalyst for a really big move up why because that the Bitcoin I think that Robin Hood the broker company brokerage company is telling us that the clients that want to go for the want to be trading that's what they do gold is stuck when something's stuck people just move on that's all and they're going to Bitcoin and when Bitcoin stores and I think it's getting close to at least having a bit of a breather it still looks great I mean the technicals in the daily the weekly and legs seen the month we all say hey great but they're very short of technicals are saying just don't be surprised if there's a pullback between 50,000 and 48,000 here we are talking about 50 and 48,000 again amazing alright so I wanted to go to silver just to explain why and the other thing is that the mid-east turmoil I've spoken about this for months I said I don't think that this is where gold becomes the go-to insurance policy it's a different war it's a different thing all together and therefore and that's the reason why I don't see that big spike in gold holding that initially had and that's kind of what we've seen so it's a separate thing and money will come back but it'll come back when it's more a viable entity to be trading that's the way I'm looking at it so there's Bitcoin I want to look at silver silver didn't do all that silver is SI is continuous contract silver it's just stuck at different times there's a better chart and then other times it's worse right now it's just kind of stuck and look at the chat we've inside track repellent zone it just keeps pulling back and pulling back every time it gets there so silver is not anything high-grade copper yes I'll look at high-grade copper high-grade copper is pulling back and that's it's very interesting because it goes together I like to put the two together this is copper this is dr. copper that's world economies that's why we look at copper but look at the eyeshadows global timber and forestry you have almost the same it was fantastic now it's pulling back and it's just kind of digesting gains is not doing very much but enough of that I think people want to actually know what's going on the TLT it's very important TLT is down 28 cents at 93.59 as I see it you know stuck is stuck is a technical term in the market that I've found is very useful to keep in your mind because it's a no trade sometimes and the bonds really being stuck on a short term position I would say bank from 82 to almost 100 or touching 100.57 that's a big percentage but in the big picture I just say right now it's kind of stuck not doing the gold report as a precious metal gold is still king it continues to hold the most effective safe haven and hedging properties across the global major trading hubs of the London OTC market the US futures market and the Shanghai Gold Exchange the gold report Tom O'Brien publishes his weekly gold report every Monday morning for subscribers consisting of coverage of the XAU, HUI, GDX the dollar, bonds the South African Rand as well as 25 different mining equities with specific buy sell recommendations the gold report new subscribers get a 30 day money back guarantee so you have a risk subscribe to Tom O'Brien's gold report newsletter now at TFNN.com are you ready to take your trading to the next level? 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four-side fund services LLC this program is brought to you by Vista Gold traded on the NYSC American NTSX under the symbol VGZ it's called COCC but actually I do have it I recognize immediately that must be the month for the cocoa but I've got the cocoa continuous contract this is not an actual month this is a continuous contract amalgam of the different months and basically yes I noted that in one of my shows recently I said wow I don't know what's going to happen to the price of coffee if cocoa is going I mean because you know they connected has gone parabolically higher look at that that is parabolic in the in the in the daily and the weekly not the monthly it's big it is becoming parabolic but two months I consider that you want time as well as price but certainly it's vertical I mean just back at the beginning of the year we're trading at 4,000 and now you're up 50 and a half percent over 50 percent is 63 94 this is to me it is a sign of in I don't know how to explain this with my DBA which is the DBA Agricultural Fund which subscribers have from about 13 straight right now 22.23 for a long time and I haven't done anything because I keep looking at the grains of the grains look at this horrible look at that child look at the daily weekly monthly look at the S of the soybeans it's worse than yet it's going to the low of 2022 at about 1,000 and it's trading at 1.31 after peak D in the monthly which is really good to see but of course happens since look at the corn corn is even worse look at soybeans so when I was going through that I thought why surely we should start seeing deflation in the stores well if you look at the XLP I'm coming back to coffee if you look oh coming back to something let me just say that the reason why I was looking at ELF and spoke about it was ELF was in the 3M the reason why I brought ALTA was that ALTA the chart because they're both in the beauty area ELF is beauty products had that incredible move and I said what's going on with ALTA and then it had a huge smash to the downside and then I said a few days later I said oh now I see what's going on ELF is taking its place and then ELF is that huge move down then it came back and now it's it's spectacular move to the upside no I wasn't saying ALTA was in the mid cap sorry in the IWM I had no idea but I did see ELF was I just put the two together so look at this this is the X why am I doing this no I didn't want this I'll get to it in a moment I want you to show you for instance GIS this is General Mills who could have made it all time high in about 90 early 2023 and now it's trading off the decent balance it's still trading only at 65 so when finally all these products on the shelves see it's like oil when the prices go up even by a fraction within self because they do it electronically now but they used to have this guy up on a ladder putting in the price within 5 minutes the boss would say get that price up and then the price when the prices come down they just I don't know what it is they just couldn't find the ladder it was just so hard well this is the same thing here that these guys General Mills, Cheerios, Annie's and other foods they just can't find the ladder to attack this way it's there the rope to go down the ladder because that's the way it is in the business right you hold off the the price declines as long as you can you keep the inclines as much as you can anyway so with that said here's coffee KC's and KC KC so KC has been this is coffee continuous contract trading at 181 it's just kind of trapped this is a potential drainage in the weekly chart but it's up at the higher level of the weekly but not the monthly it's in the kind of just under a half not even a third but it's towards the half of the two 38ish area too high of the 2022 high and 125 say a low so it's different so they're all doing different things and that's what I was saying I how I'd said coffee and cocoa sometimes go together because this extracts and all that but in fact the one is look there it is CC is incredible to the moon right and coffee's not doing the same thing yet and we'll see what happens with coffee products and coffee prices so here we go within the context of what we were looking at an OJ you wanted me to look at OJ yes OJ I haven't updated it my notations for a little while ha ha ha look at that peak A peak B peak C peak D E and then an A we see so that's an alternate count oh ho ho so that is a D right there it's pulled back hit the 40 beer moving average so orange is there a spectacular run I must say some of the oranges this year have been just beautiful I bought a couple over the weekend just I love oranges beautiful beautiful oranges last year we didn't have good oranges anyway so orange juice is up there so we'll see what happens now the question came in where did I find my questions here the question came could I look at oh yes Tesla so I was looking at Boyd a buy buy B Y D bid that's the Chinese company B Y D D F is the way I get it and Tesla's having a nice dated up 799 so you see these three blue lines you see how there was just this beautiful patterns it's a chapter wave there's that falling exformation the art formation that fails takes out the left side low and and and did it again this time we went to a C and then a pullback at the 200 period moving average so I'd say that I believe that Tesla is holding well even though it's down quite sharply I think considering what's going on what I'm reading about an electric or the EV sector and what I can see from ads that I'm looking at I think there's a little bit more of bargaining that you didn't have before in the EV sector but I think it's still very popular why if they could get that the recharging to be much much higher in other words if you could go 800 to a thousand miles I think they've almost resolved the problem there because that's that is really good then I'd consider it but if I'm getting you come back I'm not going to hunt around somewhere for a charging I mean I love the idea of electric I love electric everything about it but now I'm not going to get it until I know that I can go longer distances without having to find a charge all right but that's it what I was what was I looking at I'm looking at oh didn't finish this so I just think it's stuck you see that gap it hasn't really filled the gap it's gone into the gap I just suspect that Tesla is going to this 200 period moving average in the weekly chart of 199 it's called a 200 I just think it's going to wiggle around 200 up and down up and down so with that said question came in what about your market overview so my market overview is this within the context of what I consider rotational and very selective rotational in there we saw that through the IWM the difference in the Russell 2000 and the difference between that and the 1000 I believe that investors will be looking I'm talking about not just investors I think we're talking about fund managers and I don't think the hedge fund as much as fund managers are going to be looking at the laggings at a certain going into March maybe even April and that's where I think there's some kind of rotation and where that money starts to come in some of the money has to come out and it might be coming out of this really very strong moves in the hike are you ready to take charge of your financial future TFNN is your gateway to the world of trading and investing whether you're starting out or scaling up TFNN empowers traders and investors of all skill levels with top-notch investing systems strategies and techniques it's time to protect and grow your money with insight you can trust join us live Monday through Friday during market hours for exclusive content that moves with the markets at TFNN we bring the trading floor to you our season hosts are here to answer your calls and questions live on the air check out the Tiger's Den for just one dollar and follow us on YouTube and become part of our 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hours per day go to TFNN.com then hit watch Tiger TV that's TFNN.com then hit watch Tiger TV so the further away in the E-mini the ES we push it down from 50 100 the closer we get to the 5,093 level which is the 200 period exponential moving average that I think is the magnet that's going to be if we drop just a little bit lower okay with that said I just want so yeah cocoa and coffee separate things but in terms of the commodities that's there's a big difference that's number one I see in the Tiger YouTube so that has to do with crops back in West Africa another question came in yeah so if anybody's got chocolate over the last 3-4 months you'll know that the chocolate prices have really gone up a lot okay I mentioned in the den was PA and W that's Paula the networks had a huge shock to the downside 380.88 is the high just a couple of weeks ago and smash it gaps down and it goes down to 260 120 points as like gets cut by a third round number low of 265 the next day and get it to 307 very nice balance hey stay tuned for Steve Rose check out my opening call daily newsletter and I'll be back tomorrow stay tuned great programming