 Good morning. I hope everyone was well. It's the 7th of January and just got 7am here in London, so let's get this briefing kicked off and look ahead of the day. I'm looking at the S&P chart here on a daily time setting. As you can see despite some of the sensational headlines coming off Capitol Hill last night. S&P not really blinking on the futures here just nudging up and edging up and right up there around the highest point ever traded, which was set on Monday and indeed tested again yesterday. But as you're waking up, you're going to be seeing sensational images here as Trump supporters stormed the US Capitol building on Wednesday and they forced lawmakers and staff to seek shelter. Of course, it was destructive what was the certification of President-Elect Joe Biden's victory. Quite incredibly, you know, armed supporters of Trump, there were four deaths, unfortunately, that occurred during the protests. Although it looks like only one of those deaths was related to actually a gunshot and a woman, unfortunately, died and shot by police as their cry forced its way in so that out of the representatives, the three of the deaths were apparently more due to medical emergencies, too much info beyond that at this point. But Carl was eventually restored after the National Guard was called in and more than a dozen people were arrested. You know, this was the joint session, you remember, to formally count electoral votes and certify the election result and it got going again, the formal process got going again after all of this kind of was the protests were removed. I don't know what to say about this other than it's kind of perhaps Trump's final hurrah in a way. I mean, the media will be all over it and loving it, but actually what's important for traders is it's not really benefit. This is Trump's final sort of death cry for he steps away from the White House just in two weeks time. So this procedure that was going on in Capitol Hill was all formalities, it's not going to change the result of the election, it's not going to change the fact that Biden is stepping into the White House. That is inauguration in a couple of weeks and so freely from a markets point of view, it's a complete distraction. So I don't really want to talk more about that at all. What is more important and actually, you know, why our stocks up here, nurturing the highs again, well, we talked about this in the briefing yesterday myself and Anthony. This is the kind of blue wave trade, if you like. It's back on and that's because the Democrats took control of the Senate. They won those two. Let me bring up these sort of headlines here. Sorry, that's the Republicans recoiling from Trump. There's violence proved too much and so some senior Republicans have really, of course, you know, forcefully separated themselves from Trump. But yeah, in terms of the headlines with regards to the blue wave, so the Democrats gained control of the Senate. They won both of those runoff elections in Georgia. So they have control, it's 50-50, but in terms of the senators, 50 Democrats, 50 Republicans, but it's the vice president who is, of course, Democrat carries the deciding vote in any event where there's a vote split. So in effect, Democrats have control of both the House of Representatives and the Senate and obviously Biden sat in the White House. He's a Democrat and so this is the blue wave. You are a Democrat, one, two, three. Of course, we talked about this in detail yesterday. So I won't go over it other than to summarize that this scenario means that it's just more likely that Biden will be able to get his policies through Congress and that those are policies such as a larger and perhaps a faster and larger stimulus package to fight the corona virus situation. It also means other stuff. Again, I talked about this yesterday, so I won't go over it too much, but the NASDAQ certainly underperformed yesterday compared to the S&P, and that's because the idea is that Biden, with a clear pathway on getting legislation through Congress with this blue wave is more evil, we think, to implement more regulatory burdens on the tech industry. Plus, we talked about this whole idea about how the inflationary trade here is back on, more stimulus may lead to a more rapid increase in inflation and we talked about how this is negative for, in one respect, it's negative for tech stocks and it's kind of good for value stocks. You're seeing a rotation trade out of tech into value. The other thing is, one good example yesterday, Biden, of course, is very much pro, green, environmentally friendly policy. Now that he's got his blue wave, it was the renewable energy stocks that were just on an absolute tear yesterday. What I look at quite closely is called renewable energy. That was up almost 13% on the back of this, on the back of the Democrats taking control of the same with that win in the two run, obviously, in Georgia. We talked about this yesterday. What I wanted to touch on and what we didn't talk too much about yesterday was what's happening over in the dollar. We'll come back to the stocks in a minute. But if we look at the euro dollar here, then certainly, let me just get rid of these two lines and tidy up this. Obviously, this dollar weakness trade has been the theme of the last couple of months and it's certainly been extended and ongoing yesterday. Again, euro dollar punching to new highs here for the year. But if you look back, let me go back to a monthly view because this move yesterday to new highs for the year, and I guess new highs, that's not only for 2021, we're actually only four days in here, but it's new highs compared to last year as well. And in fact, it's higher than anything the year before. And actually, you've got to go back to 2018 and actually very start 2018 to find the last time this currency pair was trading up at these levels. And so I think the dollar weakening story very much is aligned with the blue wave and Biden being able to get his policies through much more easily and the Democrats being able to set their agenda much more easily now with control of both axes on Capitol Hill. So this dollar weakening scenario, I would expect to continue to clear the clear targets is 125 and just above that 125 80, which as you can see is a very prominent, very proud double top here from the start double triple top from the start 2018. Okay, so we're expecting that dollar weakening theme to continue. What else are going on in the headlines then? Well, just looking back this morning, actually, it's a positive data out of Germany. So Germany, Germany manufacturing is unexpectedly increasing by 2.3% month by month in November. And that follows that follows an upwardly revised 3.3% jump in October. So beating expectations are good news on the data front this morning out of Germany. Well, it wasn't so good. And the focus for tomorrow really will be the US labor market where we're going to get the December 2020 non farm payrolls result that will be announced tomorrow afternoon. And the kind of one leading indicator for that is the ADP US private sector ADP employment number that came out much worse than expected yesterday and printed negatively, which is of note just because that's the first negative print since if you like the first wave of COVID, which was back in April. And of course, you know, we know what's going on here. And certainly in the UK, we're in full lockdown. And, you know, when you're thinking about COVID, you know, over in the US, you know, the situation is still, you know, despite the vaccines starting to get rolled out, the situation is still worsening. And so we should anticipate this as restrictions are tightened. We should anticipate that the labor market will suffer in the near term. So, you know, all eyes will be, you know, looking at non farm payrolls figures. Here's the payroll chart just as a reminder in November. We've got a 245 print. And of course, you've seen a wild, the most remarkable year in history really for non farm payrolls data. We'll talk more about this tomorrow because this payroll data is tomorrow. Oil headlines. We talked about this another big story of the week and oil buoyant near 51. But let's take a look at that chart right now. So we talked about this yesterday. And, you know, it was added to last night, we had a draw down. Or sorry, yesterday afternoon, we had a draw down for the US Department of Energy inventory data. But of course, the big story isn't that big story is the sound ease. And how they've very surprisingly decided to cut production by a third of one million barrels day for the months of January and February was we go into a bit more sort of lockdown situation in Europe and indeed in the US. So oil, we're along with the weakening dollar. Sanities cutting production draw downs in US inventories. This is that kind of trio of positive catalysts that's enabled oil to punch up through 50 bucks. And we're trading indeed up above $51 this morning. So let's just take this time to bring it back and see the last time we were trading up at these levels. And you've got to go back to, let's see here, yes, February, so the 24th of February. So as that sort of coronavirus scenario started to kick in, then that's where we had this big sell-off. We had a big marker point at the end of 2018, which I've drawn in here at 42.36. And you can see that that obviously we've got the gap lower here off the wave one of COVID. And then you can see that as things recovered through the summer, this kind of presented a very nice barrier of resistance. And we broke through that in November as we started to see maybe like the end of the tunnel off the back of all the vaccine use of course. And it's kept hiring, kept hiring, kept hiring. And this latest punch has actually taken us up through the triple bottom area or up through and around the triple bottom area from 2019. So this is an important technical here that's been kind of breached. And so targets on the upside, technically speaking, would be this high point that we had in February. But that's right up at 54.50. So, you know, there's quite a distance to move to get up there. Of course, you know, looking back at 2019 as a whole, then the high fat year was right up at 66.5 or way off there. And, you know, certainly not thinking $60 of my $66 at this point. That might be a scenario that plays out only if the vaccine rollout is very successful. And at the moment, so further updates on that, the US reported that they've now managed to vaccinate 5 million people. That's with the first dose, but 5 million, you know, that's still behind the expected sort of rate of vaccination. So that whole vaccination program, as you have seen in the press, is being rolled out, but some bottlenecks are just slowing things down. So traders are hoping that those bottlenecks will be alleviated and the rate of vaccinations will be able to ramp up quite rapidly. And obviously, the hope is that this will enable economies to open up and develop economies first. They're the ones with the vaccine first and these big giant developed economies like the US. Successful vaccine rollout leading to opening up the economy in a much more positive, strong, more near a term rebounded economic activity. Add in the blue wave, and that's what investors are hoping for. Of course, with oil, on the demand side, that would be a very positive situation. Of course, any hiccups or road bumps or speed bumps, sorry, in the vaccine rollout will then that demand side equation starts to turn negative again. If lockdowns are being extended for longer periods, then of course this is a negative situation. Also, then, you've got to think about the supply side and, you know, the Saudis so far have committed to a couple of months worth of quite aggressive cuts. You are having some of the other OPEC plus nations like Russia increasing production only marginally. But it will be interesting to see what the Saudis say and what is now more frequent monthly OPEC plus meeting. It will be interesting to keep track on the Saudis stance as we get into February because that will have a much better idea. We'll be a few weeks on and we'll be able to see the rate of vaccinations and are they speeding up. And then we'll be coming towards the end of that deadline of January and February where the Saudis said they'll cut production by a million miles. What are they going to do in March? What are they going to do in April? So obviously the supply side is important to monitor but for now, for oil, this is really key. Very significant from a technical point of view and of course very significant from a fundamental point of view with that Saudi news yesterday. So up above 50 indeed, up above 51, you may well see a push towards this next target on the longer term of 54-50 in the coming weeks and the couple of weeks ahead as long as that vaccine rollout doesn't disappoint. And as long as the Saudis don't start talking about increasing production again in March too soon. Let's return back to stocks. The one thing I wanted to just kind of look at with you is T-notes. I talked about this yesterday back to the kind of blue wave and the Democrats winning those seats in Congress. So here we've got T-notes. I talked about this yesterday. This was a very important situation because we've got yields rising. This is all part of that inflationary trade story of course. And we have yields rising and yields on the 10-year T-notes in the US punched about 1% briefly yesterday. From a technical point of view from the price perspective, this has taken things down below that June low. We had a little bit of a low point back in March, which was at 136. The low point that we've had yesterday was at 137. We don't have a new low for 2018, of course. Sorry, 2018. We don't have a new low for 2020 because obviously here you can see the T-notes trading all the way down below the 130-hand. Well, it's up to 2020, but if I zoom in on the daily chart now, you can see that it's been added to this morning and draw that line in there to shift that one a little bit. And so very, very important from a technical perspective. This feeds into that whole story we were talking about in yesterday's briefing about how this is arguably negative for tech stocks, those big giant tech stocks that are carrying a huge amount of kind of key free cash flow. So future valuation of free cash flow, if yields are rising and inflationary expectations are rising now, that's a negative for that value. So very important here, definitely keep an eye on T-notes. Key break technically here. So two couple of really big breaks technically, one on oil, one on T-notes. You've got your dollar kind of marching and continuing its trend and I'll end on stocks here because the S&P is up here around the highs. Again, from a technical perspective is continuation of the upward trend, of course. And as it stands, despite all this kind of chaos and quite remarkable scenes that we've had on Capitol Hill last night, it doesn't matter so much. It's not an important thing. It's not going to alter or change economic performance in the United States. And therefore ultimately, you know, with the FOMC last night, by the way, where the minutes really didn't throw up much. So the minutes from the Fed's meeting, this is their meeting back in mid December. So the minutes were very consistent with the kind of statement that we had at the time. So really not much surprise at all, officials unanimously backing, holding. The pace of asset purchases is steady when they met last month, with some open to future adjustments if needed. So nothing out of the Fed last night, certainly no negative surprises. And so whilst the media is pumped for Capitol Hill chaos, traders and investors are ignoring that and looking through that. By then, we'll be here in a couple of weeks. We have a blue wave. The blue wave frays on the inflationary expectations of the rising renewable energy stocks are on a march. You've got a rotation at a tech and into value stocks. So that's the theme of it and nothing to change. So that's it for today's briefing, guys. Enjoy your session and I will catch you later because very much.